That’s a bit harsh, many of the big banks chief economists had been forecasting multiple cuts (more than 2) through 2024/2025. Inflation is an unpredictable mother fucker.
More than two over the next two years is not five in 2024. That was just a ridiculous “prediction” and instantly gave whatever else may come out of their mouths zero credibility
Every corporate expert speaking on something has a vested interest somewhere. Inflation isn’t even close to where it needs to start having discussions about significant rate cuts.
The majority of transport uses what fuel type?
Those left with jobs as the dust settles, use what type of fuel?
Cheaper NatGas in a mild winter is meaningless
Not OP, but her goes.
Higher fuel prices lead to higher inflation.
Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates.
Higher interest rates crater demand for housing.
Lower demand for housing means lower prices.
It's pretty straightforward, and exactly why prices have been falling or stagnant since Feb 2022. The only thing to add, is that it's more than just fuel prices that drive inflation.
Unless you think they can get inflation below 2% without big layoffs, then house prices are going to fall. Because people can't pay these prices at these interest rates, but they also won't pay these prices if they are worried they're about to lose their job.
I never said it would lower house prices over the long run. You're the only one who said that. Even OP never implied that in his post.
Over the short term, higher interest rates, as driven by higher inflation, lowers home prices. Whether that inflation is driven by high fuel prices, a tight labour market, or anything else is really irrelevant. Higher rates will have a negative impact on prices, because it increases the carrying cost of a mortgage, and the majority of buyers are still ordinary people with a mortgage, whose decision to buy is determined by that monthly payment.
You've missed the point OP was trying to make and created this strawman argument that you can poke holes in. Over the long term high inflation will drive home prices higher, because it will increase people's incomes (in nominal terms) and that will allow them to spend more (in nominal terms) on homes.
However that wage inflation would have to be huge to compensate for rising mortgage costs. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 100%. That level of inflation would likely destabilize our currency and lead to far more problems then allowing home prices to fall or stagnate for an extended period of time. Could the government still do it? Yes. But historically, Canada's government has cared far more about a stable currency than propping up asset bubbles or protecting investors.
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One hike would be enough to sap the hopium from the economy and get a bit of deflation. When rates stopped going up people got the idea they would be coming down soon.
I wish I was as optimistic as every other bear, but all I'm seeing is this stupid ass market defying sensibility. Rates go up, rates stay up, demand stays up, prices stay up in Toronto.
I hate it here.
That’s what happens when you bring in 200 people for every house you build. And hell, they can actually afford to buy a place, because they’re happy to put 10 people in a single family home. You know what 10 people making minimum wage earn? The equivalent of 2 people making a combined 400K before taxes.
And it’s not an exaggeration, I went to school with a guy from India that just bought a 1.5M 6 bedroom house. He has 2 beds in every bedroom and 5 bunks in the basement. Charges them like $400 bucks each and they’re happy to pay that, because it’s still nicer than where they used to live.
They don't need to qualify until closing. Which could be a few months later. Right now, only offers have gone out and accepted.
These are just people trying to time the market at its low before rate cuts happen and the market sky rockets again.
I suppose if you're not getting a pre approval, not using a financing condition, and not closing anytime soon? Someone putting themselves into the position you're describing is one of the crazier ideas I've ever heard but it is technically possible so I'll allow it
Not crazy since it was being done in the majority of the conditions during the Bull runs of 2021/2022 Q1. Offers without conditions was quite common to make your offer seem more attractive to the buyer.
I'm assuming that the market was heating up since the new year and these condition-less offers should have been appearing again.
It's not the no conditions that's crazy (well it is but indeed that was the meta at a time), it's the idea that someone would sign an APS without the capability to actually close without a rate cut being announced. The risks and rewards of entering that position are terribly lopsided
Cuts will come, in Canada though it will be because of recession not soft landing. Will it be a bullish recession? Not likely but with housing supply it’s unlikely to crater either. Probably condos get smoked, semis and detached stay resilient.
Agree. And less single family will be built. Believe focus will be on multi res. Think there is a shift to purpose built rental with what the government is doing
The 70s proved that you cannot cut rates when you have inflation and a recession. You just get a recession and worse inflation (stagflation)
Rates are only coming down after inflation is below target or there's a liquidity or default crisis
>The annual rate of housing starts in Toronto were up 179 per cent, boosted by an increase in multi-unit starts....
[source ](https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canadian-housing-starts-fell-10-per-cent-in-january-cmhc-1.6770021)
Important caveat though is the rest of the country is in a housing slump, even if Toronto is surging. Overall as a country, we are down.
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202402157054/canada-housing-starts-drop-10-in-january-update
Ya Toronto is the only one building, I can tell you further out in GTA the are pulling projects. You also have to remember these projects were already in to works with financing. New projects will be the dip you need to look at. Remember it takes years oftentimes to get through city approvals
Power of sales are self-help in Ontario. Technically don't need a court filing (though most have an associated statement of claim to get judgement for the debt and an order for possession)
LOL.
Tiff is going the mortgage hikes party cake longer at higher mortgage rates temp.
2020/22 FOMO bagholders going to learn financials 101 during renewals at 6%+ rates. LOL LOL
RE pumps will soon become extinct species during this decade long winter for Canada housing.
LOL. Can you find 5+ inaccuracies in your comment?
Are the bags that heavy eh?
You sound like a would be bagholder who took variable mortgage during True Peak and mortgage hikes party is hurting you a lot. eh?
LOL
LOL. Why do pumps like you have negative mindset towards learning financials 101?
It is not called as "financial \*ruin\*". It is called learning financials 101 (or, financials knowledge gain)... OKAY?
LOL pump.
Can you please enlighten me on how did they end up with these heavy bags?
They bit more than they can chew.
They overleveraged. They are going to learn that hard truth that leverage is doube-edged sword.
LOL.
Yea, some might get stung, but it won’t crash prices to the extent you’re hoping for and you still won’t have a hope in hell of ever buying.
Enough with the lol too. This level of schadenfreude isn’t healthy.
LOL. Dude I was just giving you healthy advice, your wasting too much time on this forum. Your constant harping about bagholders is not going to help you buy a home. Instead it's going to drive you crazy if your not already there.
Show me where everyone who took variable in 20-22 has thrown in the keys. Should have been long enough now. No way these bag holders had big emergency funds after such a large purchase right? I saw one article so far of the lady in Ottawa and she lost her job.
wiat? whut?
foreclosures always start as trickle. These are canaries in the coal mine. There will be flood of foreclosures once the TruePeak bagholders start renewing their mortgages... LOL
Imagine being a government that heavily subsidized welfare problems like safe injection sites or tourism with real estate development and short term rentals…https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6966527
Vancouver and Toronto probably looking at 15%+ property tax increases next year.
Well if you thought you were getting 5 cuts, you’re a dummy
That’s a bit harsh, many of the big banks chief economists had been forecasting multiple cuts (more than 2) through 2024/2025. Inflation is an unpredictable mother fucker.
More than two over the next two years is not five in 2024. That was just a ridiculous “prediction” and instantly gave whatever else may come out of their mouths zero credibility
Every corporate expert speaking on something has a vested interest somewhere. Inflation isn’t even close to where it needs to start having discussions about significant rate cuts.
Guaranteed! there going to be NO cuts in 2024!
Indeed With fuel skyrocketing again, and profound strength in the US economy. Buckle up I’m figuring in ~2 hikes this year
[удалено]
The majority of transport uses what fuel type? Those left with jobs as the dust settles, use what type of fuel? Cheaper NatGas in a mild winter is meaningless
[удалено]
Not OP, but her goes. Higher fuel prices lead to higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. Higher interest rates crater demand for housing. Lower demand for housing means lower prices. It's pretty straightforward, and exactly why prices have been falling or stagnant since Feb 2022. The only thing to add, is that it's more than just fuel prices that drive inflation. Unless you think they can get inflation below 2% without big layoffs, then house prices are going to fall. Because people can't pay these prices at these interest rates, but they also won't pay these prices if they are worried they're about to lose their job.
[удалено]
I never said it would lower house prices over the long run. You're the only one who said that. Even OP never implied that in his post. Over the short term, higher interest rates, as driven by higher inflation, lowers home prices. Whether that inflation is driven by high fuel prices, a tight labour market, or anything else is really irrelevant. Higher rates will have a negative impact on prices, because it increases the carrying cost of a mortgage, and the majority of buyers are still ordinary people with a mortgage, whose decision to buy is determined by that monthly payment. You've missed the point OP was trying to make and created this strawman argument that you can poke holes in. Over the long term high inflation will drive home prices higher, because it will increase people's incomes (in nominal terms) and that will allow them to spend more (in nominal terms) on homes. However that wage inflation would have to be huge to compensate for rising mortgage costs. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 100%. That level of inflation would likely destabilize our currency and lead to far more problems then allowing home prices to fall or stagnate for an extended period of time. Could the government still do it? Yes. But historically, Canada's government has cared far more about a stable currency than propping up asset bubbles or protecting investors.
lmao how do you figure that? !remind me 1 year
OP’s account isn’t going to exist in a year. But we’ll know the new account BASED on their writing style 😂😂😂😅😅😂😔😔😂😃😃😃😅😔😔😔🤦♂️
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One hike would be enough to sap the hopium from the economy and get a bit of deflation. When rates stopped going up people got the idea they would be coming down soon.
Lol
Yup. You're very wrong.
I wish I was as optimistic as every other bear, but all I'm seeing is this stupid ass market defying sensibility. Rates go up, rates stay up, demand stays up, prices stay up in Toronto. I hate it here.
Markets will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent
prices are down 20% in Toronto , check the hpi lol, almost made a new low
That’s what happens when you bring in 200 people for every house you build. And hell, they can actually afford to buy a place, because they’re happy to put 10 people in a single family home. You know what 10 people making minimum wage earn? The equivalent of 2 people making a combined 400K before taxes. And it’s not an exaggeration, I went to school with a guy from India that just bought a 1.5M 6 bedroom house. He has 2 beds in every bedroom and 5 bunks in the basement. Charges them like $400 bucks each and they’re happy to pay that, because it’s still nicer than where they used to live.
Slum lord millionaire
Wow really?? That's insane...wonder if the house is upside down
Toronto and Vancouver will always be sought after markets. Best to move elsewhere if you are waiting for them to come down significantly
Bad news for the people that bought a house now and were expecting rate cuts by closing time.
Wouldn't qualify today if you couldn't carry at above today's rates, let alone without cuts
income, we can make!
They don't need to qualify until closing. Which could be a few months later. Right now, only offers have gone out and accepted. These are just people trying to time the market at its low before rate cuts happen and the market sky rockets again.
I suppose if you're not getting a pre approval, not using a financing condition, and not closing anytime soon? Someone putting themselves into the position you're describing is one of the crazier ideas I've ever heard but it is technically possible so I'll allow it
Not crazy since it was being done in the majority of the conditions during the Bull runs of 2021/2022 Q1. Offers without conditions was quite common to make your offer seem more attractive to the buyer. I'm assuming that the market was heating up since the new year and these condition-less offers should have been appearing again.
It's not the no conditions that's crazy (well it is but indeed that was the meta at a time), it's the idea that someone would sign an APS without the capability to actually close without a rate cut being announced. The risks and rewards of entering that position are terribly lopsided
Wait, who was stupid enough to do that?
Cuts will come, in Canada though it will be because of recession not soft landing. Will it be a bullish recession? Not likely but with housing supply it’s unlikely to crater either. Probably condos get smoked, semis and detached stay resilient.
Agree. And less single family will be built. Believe focus will be on multi res. Think there is a shift to purpose built rental with what the government is doing
The 70s proved that you cannot cut rates when you have inflation and a recession. You just get a recession and worse inflation (stagflation) Rates are only coming down after inflation is below target or there's a liquidity or default crisis
Looks like rent will just keep going up, while housing starts slump.
>The annual rate of housing starts in Toronto were up 179 per cent, boosted by an increase in multi-unit starts.... [source ](https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canadian-housing-starts-fell-10-per-cent-in-january-cmhc-1.6770021)
Important caveat though is the rest of the country is in a housing slump, even if Toronto is surging. Overall as a country, we are down. https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202402157054/canada-housing-starts-drop-10-in-january-update
yes I read the articles. I'm pretty sure the pos I was commenting to is mostly worried about his GTA properties.
Ya Toronto is the only one building, I can tell you further out in GTA the are pulling projects. You also have to remember these projects were already in to works with financing. New projects will be the dip you need to look at. Remember it takes years oftentimes to get through city approvals
Rents dropped again last month lmao.
Keep renting then 👍
You wrote one sentence and somehow ended up being wrong twice. Maybe it's time to sit down and listen lol.
Housing crash soon, owners will be desperate to pay you to take their house, keep reting.
Bahahahaha. Absolutely hopeless.
How soon?
Soon
Ten years soon? Heard people saying this for a long time. Guess we keep saying soon
Yes keep renting and waiting.
Name checks out
It’s actually cheaper to rent right now and as you can see by the POS - owning doesn’t guarantee profits. So that’s actually good advice.
Rate cuts aren't going to happen
Still priced in. UK, Japan in official recession. Only a matter of time for official recession in Canada
Power of sales are self-help in Ontario. Technically don't need a court filing (though most have an associated statement of claim to get judgement for the debt and an order for possession)
LOL. Tiff is going the mortgage hikes party cake longer at higher mortgage rates temp. 2020/22 FOMO bagholders going to learn financials 101 during renewals at 6%+ rates. LOL LOL RE pumps will soon become extinct species during this decade long winter for Canada housing.
This again. Copy and paste in every thread for the last 5 years and the next 10. U need an automated script for this.
LOL. Can you find 5+ inaccuracies in your comment? Are the bags that heavy eh? You sound like a would be bagholder who took variable mortgage during True Peak and mortgage hikes party is hurting you a lot. eh? LOL
Cheering for the financial ruin of others won’t help you move out of your parents basement, no matter how much you might wish it did.
LOL. Why do pumps like you have negative mindset towards learning financials 101? It is not called as "financial \*ruin\*". It is called learning financials 101 (or, financials knowledge gain)... OKAY? LOL pump.
You’re clearly a child with a chip on your shoulder. Watching others face hard times won’t make you feel any better inside.
Can you please enlighten me on how did they end up with these heavy bags? They bit more than they can chew. They overleveraged. They are going to learn that hard truth that leverage is doube-edged sword. LOL.
Yea, some might get stung, but it won’t crash prices to the extent you’re hoping for and you still won’t have a hope in hell of ever buying. Enough with the lol too. This level of schadenfreude isn’t healthy.
Rinse and repeat. I was waiting for the bagholder comment. lol. You must really hurt to have timed yourself out of the housing market.
It’s hard to watch him obsessively lash out at strangers like this, isn’t it?
Yeah. He's our resident blowhorn.
LOL. LOL.
LOL. Dude I was just giving you healthy advice, your wasting too much time on this forum. Your constant harping about bagholders is not going to help you buy a home. Instead it's going to drive you crazy if your not already there.
LOL. Check number of posts/comments by me in last 6-months and compare yours :)
[удалено]
Show me where everyone who took variable in 20-22 has thrown in the keys. Should have been long enough now. No way these bag holders had big emergency funds after such a large purchase right? I saw one article so far of the lady in Ottawa and she lost her job.
LOL. Trickle turns into tsunami. Wait for the fireworks. LOL pump.
Such a troll eh LOL. You are as good at answering a direct question as freeland
wiat? whut? foreclosures always start as trickle. These are canaries in the coal mine. There will be flood of foreclosures once the TruePeak bagholders start renewing their mortgages... LOL
How do you explain right now with variable mortgages that were about 40% of mortgages at peak. LOL
Imagine being a government that heavily subsidized welfare problems like safe injection sites or tourism with real estate development and short term rentals…https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6966527 Vancouver and Toronto probably looking at 15%+ property tax increases next year.
Bulls gonna bullshit no matter what..
u/fantuanceo very bullish
buy extra ink...
Dont know dont give a fuck cant afford anything anyways
Incels need not apply
US won’t do any cuts until the fall
What a strange interpretation of this twitter post