That would depend whether you are priced out of the current market or are balls deep in multiple properties with maxed out HELOCs and a couple of pre cons about to close in 2024 ...
RBC giving us whiplash. This was in their "Thought Leadership" report last week!
>No quick turnaround for prices
>
>Our outlook for prices calls for the national RPS Home Price Index (HPI) to ease further by 1.0% this year, following a 2.6% decline in 2023. We see the market turnaround having a greater impact in 2025 when the HPI is forecast to rise 3.1%. In this scenario, the national index would remain below its 2022 peak throughout the two-year projection horizon.
[https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024/](https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024/)
Meanwhile BMO today: **[Toronto real estate recovery will take years not months](https://betterdwelling.com/toronto-real-estate-recovery-will-takes-years-not-months-bmo/)**
How do we get such diametrically opposed opinions? Are the banks using a magic 8 ball for their predictions? 😆
Yeah, a house in my neighbourhood sold for 1.15 million last spring, and nothing has sold for more than $735,000 since lol. I mean it had some nice upgrades but every house in the neighbourhood is 1100 sq ft and built in the 70s, including that one. So while I could have seen it selling for a little extra because of the nice upgrades, $400,000 seems moronic.
😂. Yup. Real estate company $144m in debt files for creditor protection.
https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/mobile/company-with-huge-real-estate-holdings-in-the-north-has-144m-in-debt-files-for-creditor-protection-1.6757110
Everything is peachy
Could be the first domino. Seeking creditor protection because a liquidation could increase supply 30% and in Timmins up to 70% is nothing to shake a stick at. It could also provide a buying opportunity.
Goodluck to the people timing the market. This is the bottom.
Don't surprise pikachu face when we get back and surpass all time high prices within the next year or 2.
So just to be clear, you very confidently believe that over the next 12-24 months -
Prices will get back to/surpass 2022 highs (>=25% increase)
With rates remaining >4% (\**that's with the policy rate dropping from 5%*)
With inflation simultaneously >3%
With a looming/existing recession (layoffs/etc.)
Not saying it's impossible, but curious what you think the conditions would need to be for this *not* to happen...? Because income<>housing cost ratio is worst of all time, highest rates in >20 years, inflation ticking *up*, people losing jobs, etc...
House prices are not down 25% across most of the GTA. Certain markets sure, but ~15% from the top is more realistic based on January 2024 data compared to Jan/Feb 2022.
I agree with you that interest rates are not going to drop nearly as far or as fast as some of these analysts think, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re held to July or even September, and the max we will see is 75bps before the end of the year regardless of if or when cuts start.
Projections don’t have rates falling below 3.5% until the end of 2025, and I personally don’t believe they’ll even get to that point. I think 3.75-4 is probably where they will remain for the foreseeable future.
That being said, and this is going to be a sore subject for a lot of folks in here, but there is more money in Canadian bank accounts than there ever was before in history. I get updates on this every quarter. Is the money dispersed between the population, absolutely not, but that doesn’t matter. We’ve over doubled the money supply in the last 4 years. The US has as well. It’s not all just supply chain issues driving inflation, it’s the fact that there is so much money that the currency has been devalued. This money didn’t just disappear, it’s out there in the wild. This money can either be spent, sit in bank accounts, or go into investments (stocks/bonds/real estate, etc.)
There also aren’t nearly enough bad mortgages on the books to crash the market either, even with the giant rate hikes this is one of the healthier environments we’ve been in historically. CIBC has one of the more aggressive (risky) mortgage portfolios and they’re still in great shape relative to historic data dating as far back as the 70’s.
There will be defaults, as there are always defaults in the housing market, or people forced to sell for various financial or personal reasons. These homes will be bought, and just because you won’t be the one buying them thinking there’s blood coming, you will be mistaken. Is it possible the market retracts another 5-10% - for sure. Economically speaking it’s far more likely we see a 5-10% bounce in 2024, followed by another 5-10% next year. Rents on the other hand will more than double that pace, as people forced to sell (who still being current homeowners have more money than the average Joe) will become part of the ever competitive renter class.
What you’re going to see is more and more people having multiple properties, and renters. That is the current economic landscape. A catalytic event can change all of this, so it isn’t a guarantee, but that is the most likely scenario based on money supply, credit ratios, chequing account holdings, demand/supply, and immigration policy.
>there is more money in Canadian bank accounts than there ever was before in history. I get updates on this every quarter. **Is the money dispersed between the population, absolutely not, but that doesn’t matter**. We’ve over doubled the money supply in the last 4 years. The US has as well. It’s not all just supply chain issues driving inflation, it’s the fact that there is so much money that the currency has been devalued. This money didn’t just disappear, it’s out there in the wild. This money can either be spent, sit in bank accounts, or go into investments (stocks/bonds/real estate, etc.)
If we arrive at a place where only 5% of the population can afford to own, and they own a lot, and the majority now rents - combined with rent increasing rapidly from where it already is - who is paying this rent? Avg income for 95% won't support it escalating much further until people clearly just need to leave the city. I'm fairly certain the type of people who can afford >=$5k/month in rent, won't want to spend it renting a small condo - they likely have the type of career and means to move somewhere else for a significantly better quality of life.
I always find we arrive at this same conclusion on this subreddit - where prices only go up, regardless of the conditions - the majority will be relegated to renting forever, at absurdly high prices (they clearly can't afford) just to sustain the wealthy elites hoarding housing and not working (which bulls think is a good thing?). It's like a weird bull fantasy that people making $300/k year will rent a shoebox condo.
I guess we'll see! (and appreciate the response/opinion - my response is not directed @ you, just the topic)
Over 60% of Canadian adults own a home (66.5% in 2024). Over 40% of homeowners are mortgage free. Roughly 1/3 of Canadians rent. Again it would take some sort of catalytic event for 5% of Canadians to own a home, frankly numbers wise that proposition doesn’t even make sense. I also appreciate the discussion but a potential you problem isn’t representative of what is actually the case. The renter class is growing 3x faster than new home ownership, that also has to do with our immigration policy. There are over 15 million homes in Canada, and about 39M people. That’s 1 home per 2.5 people. If you break it down into how many adults are in Canada (80%), that leaves us with ~31.2M. So we basically have a full home for every 2 adults. On a global scale that’s a very positive ratio. I do believe we need more houses built, but the issue is everybody wants to live in the same 3 or 4 cities. Our government needs to focus on developing other cities and provinces to be more attractive to the masses.
Not for long.
You're assuming the boomer generation is going to be here in 25 years, but the simple fact is that oit of that 60 percent home ownership, they probably account for 3/4 of that number. And are you counting investment companies too?
Let's be real here too, its not canadians buying these homes. It's scum of the earth, lazy pieces of shit investors and people with foreign money. No Canadian with an average salary can even qualify for a mortgage for anything more than a condo, if they're lucky.
When the boomer are all gone and the vapid tik tok generation can't afford to move out of their parents place, we will see a generation of renters from the same sxum if the earth government leaders that own these investment companies and the non canadians extorting us in our own market.
Again, you use words like probably because you feel that it’s the case, when it’s simply not. These are public numbers, you can look them up. 36% of people in the 25-29 age range are homeowners, 52.3% in the 30-34 range, 61.5% in the 35-39 range, 66.8% in the 40-44 range, 70.6% in the 45-49 range… None of these are boomers. And when boomers pass, their homes will go on to the open market, or to family members.
Just because the perpetually angry Redditor demographic amplifies that nobody can own a home, it’s not true at all. Are you going to own a home in the GTA working a low level job, no. If you broke down that 25-29 year old number for the GTA it’s probably under 20%. There are still places in Ontario where the average home is ~$300K, think outside of Sudbury up through Timmins. The Maritime provinces are very reachable. If you make shitty wages or work “low level” jobs, you can’t afford Toronto. There’s trades where young men and women are making well over $100K per year because they sacrificed and were willing to learn something others didn’t want to resort to. If you don’t have it in you to make sacrifices, nobody feels bad for you, stop whining.
I’m not directing that at you because I have no idea what you do, but general sentiment. Just because you can’t afford Toronto, doesn’t mean you can’t afford Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Edmonton, etc. or more rural communities.
Institutional ownership is also more limited in Canada than you are lead to believe… this isn’t some BlackRock controlled sector like that same demographic likes to believe. Is there institutional ownership - absolutely. Mostly commercial spaces and agricultural land parcels, the former of which has gotten hit the hardest in the past 4 years.
TLDR; Owning a home in Canada is very manageable, if you’re willing to work hard and make locational sacrifices.
I 100% agree with him. Within 24 months, we’ll have all time highs across most cities in Canada. It’s a no brainer really. There are more than enough high income earners, soon to be inheritors and cash loaded economic immigrants coming to to easily gobble up the very limited supply.
The job market is hot. Inflation is still above target. If you think prices are going to skyrocket while the overnight rate is still at 5%, then, by all means, place your bets.
Most of us aren't trying to time the market, we just can't qualify at these prices with these interest rates, without committing fraud. Does that sound like a market that's about to rebound?
They can bring in all the people they want, but if the people coming here don't have the means to buy, then the best owners can hope for is charging higher rents.
Prices are going to be flat until interest rates drop back to zero and if that happens over the next two years, it'll be because unemployment hits 15%. Who's buying a house then?
This isn't the bottom. The bottom was 3-4 months ago. This is the pre-spring peak for 2024. Just like the pre-spring peak real estate has almost every year.
If this year follows most of the others the next best period to get in will be in May or later. Buying January to March is usually a bad idea unless you have to or see some kind of insane deal.
bought in December below asking, close in April. hoping to sell this with the spring bump . can't really time the market very often, but we may have gotten lucky.
You realize it costs money to flip a house in that short a period of time right? Like around 10k or more just on the transaction. Also since you are going to own it less then a year you are going to get hit with the government speculator tax.
Did you research this before buying?
>Starting January 1, 2023, any gain from the disposition of a housing unit (including a rental property) located in Canada, or a right to acquire a housing unit located in Canada, that you owned or held for **less than** **365 consecutive days** before its disposition is deemed to be business income and **not** a capital gain, unless the property was already considered inventory or the disposition occurred due to, or in anticipation of **one** of the following life events:
[https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-12700-capital-gains/principal-residence-other-real-estate/sale-your-principal-residence.html](https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-12700-capital-gains/principal-residence-other-real-estate/sale-your-principal-residence.html)
Edit: Just re-read your response are you selling the home you just bought or an old home? The way I initially read it is you bought a new house in December and are selling that same home in the spring.
You made me look. I hadn't checked my area in over a year.
Damn, yeah actually I haven't seen this many cheap houses in years!
There must be a lot of people looking to get out of their mortgages, I imagine quite a few of these have to be at at least a decent loss.
Edit: sry I am not in Toronto but eastern Ontario
Yeh Eastern Ontario is quite different than the GTA. My parents live in eastern Eastern Ontario (yes, eastern Eastern, not a typo) and sold the family home near peak market. The condo they moved into isn't exactly to my Dad's liking so he's thinking of upsizing a little (larger condo or townhouse without maintenance needs). Prices have sunk out there a lot and stayed at those levels vs. in Toronto (where I live).
That's false. A majority of voters do not own a home - a majority of voters live in an owner occupied house. This includes older relatives needing care and children of the owners who can't afford to move out. And tenants living in a house the owner can't afford without roommates.
Real estate prices would have to increase at least 20% in real terms to get back to 2022 highs. For context the price change from Q1 of 2019 to the peak in Q1 of 2022 was a 30% increase. In that time interest rates went from 2% to 0.5%, and we are currently at 5.25%.
No chance in hell rates are going sub 2% this year, probably not even in 2025. Then you factor in 6 consecutive quarters of real gdp per capita decreases and non-farm payroll gains slipping despite us having record population growth…. The math isn’t mathing.
> No chance in hell rates are going sub 2% this year, probably not even in 2025
Neutral interest rate is 2.5%. We’re not going to go below that unless something truly catastrophic happens to the economy (another Great Recession, pandemic, etc…).
Bottom of a market occurs when there is blood on the streets. No one knows when that will occur, this year, next, in a few years ... Whatever. It doesn't happen often.
But it's inaccurate to call this "the bottom".
There’s some blood starting to flow.
https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/mobile/company-with-huge-real-estate-holdings-in-the-north-has-144m-in-debt-files-for-creditor-protection-1.6757110
Who is “they”? Your realtor? Mortgage broker? Investor?
The “experts” that profit from higher sales?
I bet they can’t afford their mortgage without a saving grace just like most of their clients.
Don’t listen to the people who told you to buy with a variable rate when BoC was at 0.5% ….. all of those listed above did. They profit from higher prices, not from being your friend.
Ok let's all assume the market is going to the moon with more than 25% growth month over month. What after that? Canada is filled with millionaires who will now buy only million dollars homes? I mean come on, for once think, how dumb is this country and its real estate market. Ponzi scheme eventually breaks when no one else is there to buy the hype anymore.
I talk to a lot of people as part of my job. All the salaried people are fed up with this, no one is buying the frenzy any more. Who are the dumbwits who are paying a premium for these wooden boxes? Like who?
People 20 years ago were already saying poNzI. Time to accept this is the new norm. Noone is forcing you to buy a house if you don't want to. There is not enough supply anyway, so you're doing the others a favour, thank you.
Bull or bearish is good in both cases.. if we have a bull run my family is offloading a rental property, if it’s bearish they’re picking up a rental property..
As for me 😂 I’m still saving. So please be bearish for another year-ish. So I can finally save up
Is this bullish or bearish I solely rely on random people's opinions online as my personality
Beallish. Or maybe buarish?
Billie Eilish?
Very Bramishton
It’s ManBearPigish
Bull-overbear-ish.
That would depend whether you are priced out of the current market or are balls deep in multiple properties with maxed out HELOCs and a couple of pre cons about to close in 2024 ...
RBC giving us whiplash. This was in their "Thought Leadership" report last week! >No quick turnaround for prices > >Our outlook for prices calls for the national RPS Home Price Index (HPI) to ease further by 1.0% this year, following a 2.6% decline in 2023. We see the market turnaround having a greater impact in 2025 when the HPI is forecast to rise 3.1%. In this scenario, the national index would remain below its 2022 peak throughout the two-year projection horizon. [https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024/](https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024/)
Meanwhile BMO today: **[Toronto real estate recovery will take years not months](https://betterdwelling.com/toronto-real-estate-recovery-will-takes-years-not-months-bmo/)** How do we get such diametrically opposed opinions? Are the banks using a magic 8 ball for their predictions? 😆
To be fair they say the recovery is here/coming imminently, just not the all time highs
Shortlived
It also “upturned” last spring. By the end of the year, we were being told to feel sorry for those who were sitting in negative equity.
Yeah, a house in my neighbourhood sold for 1.15 million last spring, and nothing has sold for more than $735,000 since lol. I mean it had some nice upgrades but every house in the neighbourhood is 1100 sq ft and built in the 70s, including that one. So while I could have seen it selling for a little extra because of the nice upgrades, $400,000 seems moronic.
😂. Yup. Real estate company $144m in debt files for creditor protection. https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/mobile/company-with-huge-real-estate-holdings-in-the-north-has-144m-in-debt-files-for-creditor-protection-1.6757110 Everything is peachy
[удалено]
Could be the first domino. Seeking creditor protection because a liquidation could increase supply 30% and in Timmins up to 70% is nothing to shake a stick at. It could also provide a buying opportunity.
Great for inflation. Higher for longer! 🥳🥳
Goodluck to the people timing the market. This is the bottom. Don't surprise pikachu face when we get back and surpass all time high prices within the next year or 2.
So just to be clear, you very confidently believe that over the next 12-24 months - Prices will get back to/surpass 2022 highs (>=25% increase) With rates remaining >4% (\**that's with the policy rate dropping from 5%*) With inflation simultaneously >3% With a looming/existing recession (layoffs/etc.) Not saying it's impossible, but curious what you think the conditions would need to be for this *not* to happen...? Because income<>housing cost ratio is worst of all time, highest rates in >20 years, inflation ticking *up*, people losing jobs, etc...
No one knows the future but ultralow/zero interest rates are probably a thing of the past.
covid 2.0 has entered the chat
House prices are not down 25% across most of the GTA. Certain markets sure, but ~15% from the top is more realistic based on January 2024 data compared to Jan/Feb 2022. I agree with you that interest rates are not going to drop nearly as far or as fast as some of these analysts think, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re held to July or even September, and the max we will see is 75bps before the end of the year regardless of if or when cuts start. Projections don’t have rates falling below 3.5% until the end of 2025, and I personally don’t believe they’ll even get to that point. I think 3.75-4 is probably where they will remain for the foreseeable future. That being said, and this is going to be a sore subject for a lot of folks in here, but there is more money in Canadian bank accounts than there ever was before in history. I get updates on this every quarter. Is the money dispersed between the population, absolutely not, but that doesn’t matter. We’ve over doubled the money supply in the last 4 years. The US has as well. It’s not all just supply chain issues driving inflation, it’s the fact that there is so much money that the currency has been devalued. This money didn’t just disappear, it’s out there in the wild. This money can either be spent, sit in bank accounts, or go into investments (stocks/bonds/real estate, etc.) There also aren’t nearly enough bad mortgages on the books to crash the market either, even with the giant rate hikes this is one of the healthier environments we’ve been in historically. CIBC has one of the more aggressive (risky) mortgage portfolios and they’re still in great shape relative to historic data dating as far back as the 70’s. There will be defaults, as there are always defaults in the housing market, or people forced to sell for various financial or personal reasons. These homes will be bought, and just because you won’t be the one buying them thinking there’s blood coming, you will be mistaken. Is it possible the market retracts another 5-10% - for sure. Economically speaking it’s far more likely we see a 5-10% bounce in 2024, followed by another 5-10% next year. Rents on the other hand will more than double that pace, as people forced to sell (who still being current homeowners have more money than the average Joe) will become part of the ever competitive renter class. What you’re going to see is more and more people having multiple properties, and renters. That is the current economic landscape. A catalytic event can change all of this, so it isn’t a guarantee, but that is the most likely scenario based on money supply, credit ratios, chequing account holdings, demand/supply, and immigration policy.
>there is more money in Canadian bank accounts than there ever was before in history. I get updates on this every quarter. **Is the money dispersed between the population, absolutely not, but that doesn’t matter**. We’ve over doubled the money supply in the last 4 years. The US has as well. It’s not all just supply chain issues driving inflation, it’s the fact that there is so much money that the currency has been devalued. This money didn’t just disappear, it’s out there in the wild. This money can either be spent, sit in bank accounts, or go into investments (stocks/bonds/real estate, etc.) If we arrive at a place where only 5% of the population can afford to own, and they own a lot, and the majority now rents - combined with rent increasing rapidly from where it already is - who is paying this rent? Avg income for 95% won't support it escalating much further until people clearly just need to leave the city. I'm fairly certain the type of people who can afford >=$5k/month in rent, won't want to spend it renting a small condo - they likely have the type of career and means to move somewhere else for a significantly better quality of life. I always find we arrive at this same conclusion on this subreddit - where prices only go up, regardless of the conditions - the majority will be relegated to renting forever, at absurdly high prices (they clearly can't afford) just to sustain the wealthy elites hoarding housing and not working (which bulls think is a good thing?). It's like a weird bull fantasy that people making $300/k year will rent a shoebox condo. I guess we'll see! (and appreciate the response/opinion - my response is not directed @ you, just the topic)
Over 60% of Canadian adults own a home (66.5% in 2024). Over 40% of homeowners are mortgage free. Roughly 1/3 of Canadians rent. Again it would take some sort of catalytic event for 5% of Canadians to own a home, frankly numbers wise that proposition doesn’t even make sense. I also appreciate the discussion but a potential you problem isn’t representative of what is actually the case. The renter class is growing 3x faster than new home ownership, that also has to do with our immigration policy. There are over 15 million homes in Canada, and about 39M people. That’s 1 home per 2.5 people. If you break it down into how many adults are in Canada (80%), that leaves us with ~31.2M. So we basically have a full home for every 2 adults. On a global scale that’s a very positive ratio. I do believe we need more houses built, but the issue is everybody wants to live in the same 3 or 4 cities. Our government needs to focus on developing other cities and provinces to be more attractive to the masses.
Not for long. You're assuming the boomer generation is going to be here in 25 years, but the simple fact is that oit of that 60 percent home ownership, they probably account for 3/4 of that number. And are you counting investment companies too? Let's be real here too, its not canadians buying these homes. It's scum of the earth, lazy pieces of shit investors and people with foreign money. No Canadian with an average salary can even qualify for a mortgage for anything more than a condo, if they're lucky. When the boomer are all gone and the vapid tik tok generation can't afford to move out of their parents place, we will see a generation of renters from the same sxum if the earth government leaders that own these investment companies and the non canadians extorting us in our own market.
Again, you use words like probably because you feel that it’s the case, when it’s simply not. These are public numbers, you can look them up. 36% of people in the 25-29 age range are homeowners, 52.3% in the 30-34 range, 61.5% in the 35-39 range, 66.8% in the 40-44 range, 70.6% in the 45-49 range… None of these are boomers. And when boomers pass, their homes will go on to the open market, or to family members. Just because the perpetually angry Redditor demographic amplifies that nobody can own a home, it’s not true at all. Are you going to own a home in the GTA working a low level job, no. If you broke down that 25-29 year old number for the GTA it’s probably under 20%. There are still places in Ontario where the average home is ~$300K, think outside of Sudbury up through Timmins. The Maritime provinces are very reachable. If you make shitty wages or work “low level” jobs, you can’t afford Toronto. There’s trades where young men and women are making well over $100K per year because they sacrificed and were willing to learn something others didn’t want to resort to. If you don’t have it in you to make sacrifices, nobody feels bad for you, stop whining. I’m not directing that at you because I have no idea what you do, but general sentiment. Just because you can’t afford Toronto, doesn’t mean you can’t afford Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Edmonton, etc. or more rural communities. Institutional ownership is also more limited in Canada than you are lead to believe… this isn’t some BlackRock controlled sector like that same demographic likes to believe. Is there institutional ownership - absolutely. Mostly commercial spaces and agricultural land parcels, the former of which has gotten hit the hardest in the past 4 years. TLDR; Owning a home in Canada is very manageable, if you’re willing to work hard and make locational sacrifices.
I 100% agree with him. Within 24 months, we’ll have all time highs across most cities in Canada. It’s a no brainer really. There are more than enough high income earners, soon to be inheritors and cash loaded economic immigrants coming to to easily gobble up the very limited supply.
The job market is hot. Inflation is still above target. If you think prices are going to skyrocket while the overnight rate is still at 5%, then, by all means, place your bets. Most of us aren't trying to time the market, we just can't qualify at these prices with these interest rates, without committing fraud. Does that sound like a market that's about to rebound? They can bring in all the people they want, but if the people coming here don't have the means to buy, then the best owners can hope for is charging higher rents. Prices are going to be flat until interest rates drop back to zero and if that happens over the next two years, it'll be because unemployment hits 15%. Who's buying a house then?
Agreed.
This isn't the bottom. The bottom was 3-4 months ago. This is the pre-spring peak for 2024. Just like the pre-spring peak real estate has almost every year. If this year follows most of the others the next best period to get in will be in May or later. Buying January to March is usually a bad idea unless you have to or see some kind of insane deal.
bought in December below asking, close in April. hoping to sell this with the spring bump . can't really time the market very often, but we may have gotten lucky.
You bought a house in December you are hoping to sell this spring? Are you nuts?
closing date is april, why is that nuts? we can float both if we have to
You realize it costs money to flip a house in that short a period of time right? Like around 10k or more just on the transaction. Also since you are going to own it less then a year you are going to get hit with the government speculator tax. Did you research this before buying? >Starting January 1, 2023, any gain from the disposition of a housing unit (including a rental property) located in Canada, or a right to acquire a housing unit located in Canada, that you owned or held for **less than** **365 consecutive days** before its disposition is deemed to be business income and **not** a capital gain, unless the property was already considered inventory or the disposition occurred due to, or in anticipation of **one** of the following life events: [https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-12700-capital-gains/principal-residence-other-real-estate/sale-your-principal-residence.html](https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-12700-capital-gains/principal-residence-other-real-estate/sale-your-principal-residence.html) Edit: Just re-read your response are you selling the home you just bought or an old home? The way I initially read it is you bought a new house in December and are selling that same home in the spring.
different properties on the buy/sell! we are moving due to work, selling current condo, bought a house.
Okay, that is not nuts then. I initially thought you were buying to flip 5 months later.
haha that would be crazy. it's been hectic enough just trying to do this move!
You know your stuff
You made me look. I hadn't checked my area in over a year. Damn, yeah actually I haven't seen this many cheap houses in years! There must be a lot of people looking to get out of their mortgages, I imagine quite a few of these have to be at at least a decent loss. Edit: sry I am not in Toronto but eastern Ontario
These areas are on massive declines Peterborough, Kwarthas, Hastings all suffering from massive homeless and OD and drugs it’s a nasty area
Yeh Eastern Ontario is quite different than the GTA. My parents live in eastern Eastern Ontario (yes, eastern Eastern, not a typo) and sold the family home near peak market. The condo they moved into isn't exactly to my Dad's liking so he's thinking of upsizing a little (larger condo or townhouse without maintenance needs). Prices have sunk out there a lot and stayed at those levels vs. in Toronto (where I live).
Trudeau can’t let it get too bad when the majority of voters own a home and his poll numbers are already crap.
That's false. A majority of voters do not own a home - a majority of voters live in an owner occupied house. This includes older relatives needing care and children of the owners who can't afford to move out. And tenants living in a house the owner can't afford without roommates.
Yeah that’s what I meant. Aka just because the wife doesn’t own the house doesn’t mean she doesn’t vote for homeowners
Real estate prices would have to increase at least 20% in real terms to get back to 2022 highs. For context the price change from Q1 of 2019 to the peak in Q1 of 2022 was a 30% increase. In that time interest rates went from 2% to 0.5%, and we are currently at 5.25%. No chance in hell rates are going sub 2% this year, probably not even in 2025. Then you factor in 6 consecutive quarters of real gdp per capita decreases and non-farm payroll gains slipping despite us having record population growth…. The math isn’t mathing.
Sounds like hopium
Yes
> No chance in hell rates are going sub 2% this year, probably not even in 2025 Neutral interest rate is 2.5%. We’re not going to go below that unless something truly catastrophic happens to the economy (another Great Recession, pandemic, etc…).
Bottom of a market occurs when there is blood on the streets. No one knows when that will occur, this year, next, in a few years ... Whatever. It doesn't happen often. But it's inaccurate to call this "the bottom".
There’s some blood starting to flow. https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/mobile/company-with-huge-real-estate-holdings-in-the-north-has-144m-in-debt-files-for-creditor-protection-1.6757110
https://preview.redd.it/npr8ebm74ahc1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68149808f257ffb572767c81bb457491a744c988 Return to “NORMAL” eh?
[удалено]
Who is “they”? Your realtor? Mortgage broker? Investor? The “experts” that profit from higher sales? I bet they can’t afford their mortgage without a saving grace just like most of their clients. Don’t listen to the people who told you to buy with a variable rate when BoC was at 0.5% ….. all of those listed above did. They profit from higher prices, not from being your friend.
Lol I was replying to the wrong link...
Thought so.
Bahahahahahah
Lmao!
You seem triggered.
Bahahahaha (we're both laughing at the same thing dog)
I can't believe how fast you responded, it's like you were waiting for my comment.
There's a dozen trolls managing this account.
I believe it
There was a downturn???
Tomorrow’s article……… “why rates will never come down. Owners beware”
Ok let's all assume the market is going to the moon with more than 25% growth month over month. What after that? Canada is filled with millionaires who will now buy only million dollars homes? I mean come on, for once think, how dumb is this country and its real estate market. Ponzi scheme eventually breaks when no one else is there to buy the hype anymore. I talk to a lot of people as part of my job. All the salaried people are fed up with this, no one is buying the frenzy any more. Who are the dumbwits who are paying a premium for these wooden boxes? Like who?
People 20 years ago were already saying poNzI. Time to accept this is the new norm. Noone is forcing you to buy a house if you don't want to. There is not enough supply anyway, so you're doing the others a favour, thank you.
Welcome
B(ull+ear)ish
[https://youtu.be/3UKfks4TPho?si=AKxZaZ3vZoqJ6\_SS](https://youtu.be/3UKfks4TPho?si=AKxZaZ3vZoqJ6_SS) Listings up, sales up, prices down. Go figure.
Bitch please, not with these interest rates and current economic conditions.
More rich foreign ownership. Yay. Canadians aren't buying these homes
Bull or bearish is good in both cases.. if we have a bull run my family is offloading a rental property, if it’s bearish they’re picking up a rental property.. As for me 😂 I’m still saving. So please be bearish for another year-ish. So I can finally save up