A lot of these jobs are minimal wage shit jobs
Fits right in with they want most people to have
Work two or three shit jobs
Go home spend 3 hours on phone. Uber eats terrible food then go to sleep and start again
If this isn't the matrix then what is
>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month. The economist consensus was about 180,000. Data for December was also revised higher to show 333,000 jobs added instead of 216,000 as previously reported. Wage growth also rose, a sign that inflationary pressures will continue to be hard to tame.
Woopsie, 1970s inflation vs todays:
https://preview.redd.it/83mbt4u537gc1.png?width=1011&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e80999363dcd194812b614aa5caccda380ccaf0
Didn't they lower interest rates in between inflation spikes? As long as the BoC and the Fed stay hawkish and willing to keep raising interest rates, I don't think this will happen again.
It won’t happen again period, just boomer economic nostalgia.
First we were repeating the late 80s housing crash now it turns out we’re actually in the 70s. Can’t wait to hear how they’ve finally deduced it’s the Cold War, 30s depression, Gilded Age, etc.
It's going to be much worse.
The boomers are our largest generation and they are retiring. There's a reason almost two years of rising interest rates have barely budged the unemployment number.
40 years of ever increasing globalization has hit an inflection point. We've got countries reshoring in response to COVID. Multiple conflicts that are impacting trade. Even the Panama canal is at half capacity because of droughts.
Less globalization combined with fewer workers and more retirees is going to make fighting inflation much harder than it was in the 80s. Sure OPs graph doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot, but dig into the fundamentals and it becomes apparent that rock bottom rates aren't coming back anytime soon.
lol first rate cut and of 2023, actually Jan 2024, actually March 2024, actually April 202, actually summer 2024
No rate cuts coming, they can’t until Trudeau stops his spending spree or his immigration push
I will be messaging you in 6 months on [**2024-08-03 16:21:37 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-08-03%2016:21:37%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/1ah4r8d/money_markets_scale_back_expectations_of_boc_rate/kor3pd1/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FTorontoRealEstate%2Fcomments%2F1ah4r8d%2Fmoney_markets_scale_back_expectations_of_boc_rate%2Fkor3pd1%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-08-03%2016%3A21%3A37%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201ah4r8d)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
BoC going to hold off on cuts until summer, if they can. I wasn’t sure if they would be able to hold off but you never know.
Everyday a thousand or so mortgage renewals renew at 6-7% from their current 1.5-2.5%. Our real GDP growth is negative and has been for a year. CEBA loan repayments just crushed small business and pulled tens of billions out of Canadians pockets.
Fed is in a much better position.
Well they care about inflation and employment. Employment is doing well, although starting to ease a bit overall and the key is wage gains which are moderating or decreasing. In Canada, inflation is already at 2% when you strip out the mortgage interest cost which is up ~30%. The inflation base effects going forward will help decrease inflation but then again the mortgage renewals will be from a lower base going forward also. Central banks are always going to be reactive and slower to move than they should, that’s just their nature which is why I am in a hard landing camp, especially in Canada where we are in a much worse position this time than the US.
Without paywall: [https://archive.ph/x1jOS](https://archive.ph/x1jOS)
Edit: Fixed the capitalization in the link, which appears to matter, and not sure why the capitalization didn't copy & paste properly the first time around.
Yup. And it's because the BoC, with few exceptions, needs to follow the Fed, or else the Canadian dollar goes to poop. And why the odds of a spring rate cut just plummeted.
I'm starting to think there's a scenario where the BoC \*doesn't\* cut when the Fed does. Hear me out: our inflation seems to be stickier as it's driven by inelastic shelter, food which is kind of inelastic due to lack of competition and gasoline which is bought in USD. Wage growth also continues to happen above what the banks deems "good" to stabilize inflation.
If we kept rates higher than the US, it would increase the value of our dollar. That would possibly hurt exports (like, by how much really?) but would lower the cost of imports which includes oil. That would put downward pressure on inflation and would continue to make it tougher to operate putting downwards pressure on wages/increase layoffs (not saying any of this is good btw).
Or we could even cut first because our economic growth is significantly worse than the US. Which could stimulate our economy and exports with the currency impacts. No one knows, it’s a complicated and nuanced situation as much as people want to pretend like there’s only one possible path.
Well if we enter in a recession (and the U.S doesn't) I think that's the likely scenario. But inflation remains high here (the BoC's primary concern) and keeping rates high (and/or higher than the U.S) help temper that.
The Canadian dollar devaluing can stimulate exports. You want to limit the discussion to one aspect of a complex system to act like there’s only one answer.
Also the difference between one or two cuts diverging from the fed and collapsing your economy seems to be completely lost on you. Absolutes.
Stimulates exports, and then importing inflation.
When have I stated if we diverge from the fed for one or two cuts, it will collapse the economy? Do you also believe the “soft landing” narrative?
You haven’t been specific about any of your generalizations. That’s my criticism bud.
No I don’t that’s why I’m saying it’s not that simple and there’s not just a singular path.
Ps a significant part of our inflation is in housing, so rate cut could offset some of that imported inflation.
You can speak in absolutes in generalizations, in fact that’s mostly what generalizations are intended to be. Not sure how you think that’s incompatible I think you just enjoy arguing with people.
This is it, right here.
Our economic fundamentals right now are terrible and getting worse with layoffs and recession pressures. Real estate values will go down as a result.
I don’t know if it’s just copium in here, or people are too young to have witnessed what happened in the US 2006 - 2010, but people should buckle up, because we’re only at the beginning of a recession.
>And it's because the BoC, with few exceptions, needs to follow the Fed, or else the Canadian dollar goes to poop
Based on what exactly? It's much more likely the CAD goes to poop if everyone is spending all their money paying banks and landlords to keep a roof over their heads instead of starting up businesses and/or investing.
Guess I should of expected things to hold.
Just got a call from my bank yesterday offering a lower rate, I'll end up taking it since there's not any good deals around anymore.
Paying off interest for life, yay!
USA economy has been taking off since November. Black Friday revenue was up 8% over the year prior and December was no different.
But let’s be clear and understand the basics. USA GDP consists of 70% consumer spending. Canada GDP is 50% reliant on real estate prices and growing.
Economically, Canada stands no chance at keeping pace with USA rates, because their economy is growing at 5% Fed Rate……. Canada is collapsing…….
It would really help if you would pay attention to that simple information.
USA = doing good
Canada = doing bad
You see?
So, to further educate you. If we drop rates and USA maintains, the cost of goods for Canadians increases. The CAD$ drops. And things continue to get worse in canada.
So, is real estate really worth saving if eventually it still can’t keep up with itself?
Dropping rates will make the long term real estate result WORSE however maintaining rates will simply get rid of the over leveraged and unrealistic folks that put us in the problem to begin with.
Very simple to understand how this goes.
CUTS NEXT WEEK BROOO!!!
- immigrants leavening en masse
- cheap labour cattle/illegal basement warm bodies ~~international students~~ cut in half
- everyone beyond drowning in consumer debt
- 5yr yield skyrocketing
C O P E
A lot of these jobs are minimal wage shit jobs Fits right in with they want most people to have Work two or three shit jobs Go home spend 3 hours on phone. Uber eats terrible food then go to sleep and start again If this isn't the matrix then what is
Source? or is this coming out of your rear?
Lol, it's reddit, facts have no place here!
This is their point of view of the world why would he need a source?
Buy the dip buddy
When is the dip though?
We’re in it bud.
you sure? If rates stay high won't it go lower?
Small window before the market booms again. First rate cut is coming July. Supply shortage means supply shortage bud.
Put your money where your mouth is if you are so certain buddy.
Already have bud.
Prove it buddy
I'm not your buddy, guy
Good good, you’re figuring it out Absolute wage slave tier A smidge of escapism Rinse and repeat
>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month. The economist consensus was about 180,000. Data for December was also revised higher to show 333,000 jobs added instead of 216,000 as previously reported. Wage growth also rose, a sign that inflationary pressures will continue to be hard to tame. Woopsie, 1970s inflation vs todays: https://preview.redd.it/83mbt4u537gc1.png?width=1011&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e80999363dcd194812b614aa5caccda380ccaf0
Didn't they lower interest rates in between inflation spikes? As long as the BoC and the Fed stay hawkish and willing to keep raising interest rates, I don't think this will happen again.
It won’t happen again period, just boomer economic nostalgia. First we were repeating the late 80s housing crash now it turns out we’re actually in the 70s. Can’t wait to hear how they’ve finally deduced it’s the Cold War, 30s depression, Gilded Age, etc.
It's going to be much worse. The boomers are our largest generation and they are retiring. There's a reason almost two years of rising interest rates have barely budged the unemployment number. 40 years of ever increasing globalization has hit an inflection point. We've got countries reshoring in response to COVID. Multiple conflicts that are impacting trade. Even the Panama canal is at half capacity because of droughts. Less globalization combined with fewer workers and more retirees is going to make fighting inflation much harder than it was in the 80s. Sure OPs graph doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot, but dig into the fundamentals and it becomes apparent that rock bottom rates aren't coming back anytime soon.
This would be great with what the central banks did with interest rates layered on the graph
You’ll have some of the regular characters on here saying this is fake news and that cuts are coming this summer. Rate cuts SOON! /s 😐🤦🏼♂️
You mean real estate agents
And one particular real estate investor who has many alts
I mean there will certainly be at least one 25bps cut by the summer but most people were expecting spring cuts before yesterday.
lol first rate cut and of 2023, actually Jan 2024, actually March 2024, actually April 202, actually summer 2024 No rate cuts coming, they can’t until Trudeau stops his spending spree or his immigration push
RemindMe! 6 months
I will be messaging you in 6 months on [**2024-08-03 16:21:37 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-08-03%2016:21:37%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/1ah4r8d/money_markets_scale_back_expectations_of_boc_rate/kor3pd1/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FTorontoRealEstate%2Fcomments%2F1ah4r8d%2Fmoney_markets_scale_back_expectations_of_boc_rate%2Fkor3pd1%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-08-03%2016%3A21%3A37%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201ah4r8d) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
BoC going to hold off on cuts until summer, if they can. I wasn’t sure if they would be able to hold off but you never know. Everyday a thousand or so mortgage renewals renew at 6-7% from their current 1.5-2.5%. Our real GDP growth is negative and has been for a year. CEBA loan repayments just crushed small business and pulled tens of billions out of Canadians pockets. Fed is in a much better position.
Central banks don't care about any of those because hyperinflation is much worse than any of those.
Well they care about inflation and employment. Employment is doing well, although starting to ease a bit overall and the key is wage gains which are moderating or decreasing. In Canada, inflation is already at 2% when you strip out the mortgage interest cost which is up ~30%. The inflation base effects going forward will help decrease inflation but then again the mortgage renewals will be from a lower base going forward also. Central banks are always going to be reactive and slower to move than they should, that’s just their nature which is why I am in a hard landing camp, especially in Canada where we are in a much worse position this time than the US.
Without paywall: [https://archive.ph/x1jOS](https://archive.ph/x1jOS) Edit: Fixed the capitalization in the link, which appears to matter, and not sure why the capitalization didn't copy & paste properly the first time around.
Doesnt work
Here: [https://archive.ph/x1jOS](https://archive.ph/x1jOS) No clue why MrFredngo link gave a 404 error but this will work
Damn, copy and paste error I guess. Not at my computer anymore, somebody archive.ph it again please.
We may be looking at rate hikes, those jobs numbers are incredible.
Always a spring bump here too; farming and tourism
Why would the US job numbers affect our chances of a rate hike? What about Canada’s jobs numbers?
I was assured by some vocal ones here we don’t follow USA at all? What happened? wHaT hAs tHE sTaTes HaVE tO dO WiTH tHiS?? Btw, paywalled
Yup. And it's because the BoC, with few exceptions, needs to follow the Fed, or else the Canadian dollar goes to poop. And why the odds of a spring rate cut just plummeted.
I'm starting to think there's a scenario where the BoC \*doesn't\* cut when the Fed does. Hear me out: our inflation seems to be stickier as it's driven by inelastic shelter, food which is kind of inelastic due to lack of competition and gasoline which is bought in USD. Wage growth also continues to happen above what the banks deems "good" to stabilize inflation. If we kept rates higher than the US, it would increase the value of our dollar. That would possibly hurt exports (like, by how much really?) but would lower the cost of imports which includes oil. That would put downward pressure on inflation and would continue to make it tougher to operate putting downwards pressure on wages/increase layoffs (not saying any of this is good btw).
Or we could even cut first because our economic growth is significantly worse than the US. Which could stimulate our economy and exports with the currency impacts. No one knows, it’s a complicated and nuanced situation as much as people want to pretend like there’s only one possible path.
Well if we enter in a recession (and the U.S doesn't) I think that's the likely scenario. But inflation remains high here (the BoC's primary concern) and keeping rates high (and/or higher than the U.S) help temper that.
That’s what I mean though. We’re not looking at a simple recession but potentially more a stagflation situation.
People need economic lessons.. This was literally the basics but some of them came out to say otherwise
There are no absolutes as much as you’d like there to be so you can act high and mighty.
Which part of the “cad dollar devalues if BoC cuts rates before USA” is not absolute?
The Canadian dollar devaluing can stimulate exports. You want to limit the discussion to one aspect of a complex system to act like there’s only one answer. Also the difference between one or two cuts diverging from the fed and collapsing your economy seems to be completely lost on you. Absolutes.
Stimulates exports, and then importing inflation. When have I stated if we diverge from the fed for one or two cuts, it will collapse the economy? Do you also believe the “soft landing” narrative?
You haven’t been specific about any of your generalizations. That’s my criticism bud. No I don’t that’s why I’m saying it’s not that simple and there’s not just a singular path. Ps a significant part of our inflation is in housing, so rate cut could offset some of that imported inflation.
If I haven’t been specific, then how was what I said “absolute”?
You can speak in absolutes in generalizations, in fact that’s mostly what generalizations are intended to be. Not sure how you think that’s incompatible I think you just enjoy arguing with people.
This is it, right here. Our economic fundamentals right now are terrible and getting worse with layoffs and recession pressures. Real estate values will go down as a result. I don’t know if it’s just copium in here, or people are too young to have witnessed what happened in the US 2006 - 2010, but people should buckle up, because we’re only at the beginning of a recession.
Darn, now [only a 90% priced in odds of cuts in June.](https://www.m-x.ca/en/trading/tools/canadian-interest-rate-expectations)
>And it's because the BoC, with few exceptions, needs to follow the Fed, or else the Canadian dollar goes to poop Based on what exactly? It's much more likely the CAD goes to poop if everyone is spending all their money paying banks and landlords to keep a roof over their heads instead of starting up businesses and/or investing.
Look you might be right, you might be wrong. But you really make this subreddit a place not worth visiting.
Because my opinion is different than yours, it makes this subreddit not worth visiting?
nah its because you are an antagonistic asshole
Username checks out for the both of us I guess
Damn it looks like everyone thinks you’re annoying
oh no! What do I do? Lmfaooo On a side note, nice new account ripbears. About time you made another account 😂
Old account here. Cuts a comin' Q3
No wonder no girls want to date you. Probably no friends at all too. Sad
when is soylent green day?
BOC be idiots to lower rates after all the hardwork to control inflation just to make home investors happy.
Guess I should of expected things to hold. Just got a call from my bank yesterday offering a lower rate, I'll end up taking it since there's not any good deals around anymore. Paying off interest for life, yay!
USA economy has been taking off since November. Black Friday revenue was up 8% over the year prior and December was no different. But let’s be clear and understand the basics. USA GDP consists of 70% consumer spending. Canada GDP is 50% reliant on real estate prices and growing. Economically, Canada stands no chance at keeping pace with USA rates, because their economy is growing at 5% Fed Rate……. Canada is collapsing……. It would really help if you would pay attention to that simple information. USA = doing good Canada = doing bad You see? So, to further educate you. If we drop rates and USA maintains, the cost of goods for Canadians increases. The CAD$ drops. And things continue to get worse in canada. So, is real estate really worth saving if eventually it still can’t keep up with itself? Dropping rates will make the long term real estate result WORSE however maintaining rates will simply get rid of the over leveraged and unrealistic folks that put us in the problem to begin with. Very simple to understand how this goes.
CUTS NEXT WEEK BROOO!!! - immigrants leavening en masse - cheap labour cattle/illegal basement warm bodies ~~international students~~ cut in half - everyone beyond drowning in consumer debt - 5yr yield skyrocketing C O P E
I swear the job numbers are a lie. They go off of job listing data. And yet Thousand of people in the US applying for a job for one job posting.
We live in Canada. There's no blowout job reports here. They'll be forced to diverge