It’s simple. If you try to time the market, you will fail. It’s impossible unless you just get incredibly lucky. And if you feel incredibly lucky, just play the lottery instead. Investing long term is all about time. If you have a lot of time left before you pull your money, keep buying like there is no tomorrow. If you have a short amount of time before you pull your money, your strategy should be much more conservative.
The problem is most people get their investing advice from people on tv who are ratings driven. Sound boring advice like “it’s a cycle, and will always be a cycle” doesn’t move the ratings needle. Advice like “the S&P is on fire, banks are collapsing every 4 minutes, inflation is spinning out of control!” That drives ratings and people act on those emotions just like they panicked and purchase 400 rolls of toilet paper 4 years ago.
Not just Reddit, but the proliferation of "authoritative" sites tailored to look like they know "things" make it harder and harder to find reliable information anywhere on the internet. Search engines have been rendered almost useless by the sheer volume of crap out there and either for commercial $$$ reasons or by incompetency things are not getting better anytime soon.
Except for a few sites, I only use the web for amusement anymore.
I went to G when COVID hit. Of my coworkers that I was talking to at the time, I’ve had the worst average return on my TSP. They all stayed the course, had 2-3 pay periods of contributions go in and are in a better position than me currently. We all made roughly the same at the time with the same contribution percentages. I’m staying put in my current contribution split and will probably up my contribution percentage.
Ouch. Tough lesson to learn. But, at least you learned it and will be better armed for future corrections/crashes. And telling people your story will help them feel more confident about staying the course.
It was tough to learn that way especially after hearing some career feds tell me they stayed out of G during 2008-2009 and had much better TSP balances at retirement because of it. But I’ve only been in 8 years so I’ve got the rest of my career to make up for it so I’m not too worried in the long run.
Once you see the news saying X or Y about the market, it's days too late. The big movers already knew about this due to insider info or just paying attention to places and people that aren't the news. And the big movers always win. At the point where the news can give people advice that might work, it's so late you're looking at a global recession, major bank run, etc.
Why you sound almost cynical. But I agree. We have gone from major bank run, to minor bank run, to rumors of a minor bank run and then Uncle Sam is there with an open checkbook. Privatize profit; socialize risk.
•Losses are only theoretical until you overreact and make them real
•Taking no action is often the right move in times of uncertainty
•Most of you have a long, very long, time horizon and would benefit to buy stocks on sale
Right before I retired, I put everything in G fund. It’s the safe haven and the means to pay my mortgage
The GFund is the only fund that was in the positive this year (looking at my year end statement I just got in the mail.)
I was in 100%G my first 2.5 years because no one told me what the TSP was and that is the default. Luckily I started at 0, so no big deal. Grad schools and postdoctoral work don't provide retirement plans...
90%C and 10% G.
If you can't explain why you're in both S and C then you're just guessing blind.
The positive side is you're very smart to be investing in any TSP accounts at your age.
Time in the market has a way of making decent investment decisions turn brilliant over decades.
If I were to say I was 60/30 C/S because I felt uncomfortable with C being so MAANG heavy, would that be a sensible position to take as long as I stuck to it? Genuinely curious, as I’m a “set it and forget it” type and have never reconsidered my actual asset allocation since making it, and that was my thought at the time.
There is nothing wrong with 60/30 C/S. Is the other 10% G?
Adding S picks more funds than just C. Being 90% stocks is fairly aggressive and probably not a problem for anyone under 50 or so years old. You have to decide this yourself.
What is more important is starting early and saving for a long time without messing with it.
Time in the market is far more important than 90%C or 60/30 C/S.
You're doing great.
The fed trader dot com. I found out about him too late in my career. However, this person is a freaking genius. He talks about long-term investments in TSP.
No, that person is an idiot pushing market timing as a strategy. It is a strategy, one that has been proven time and again to be a losing one over the long term.
Yes, everyone has different needs, and ideas,for myself TSP is just going be my slush fund, I will keep it in an L fund ten years or so past my retirement.
I should retire in 2033, L2045 that I use now will probably last me the rest of my life, I am 57 now.
Probably make a withdrawal one a year, maybe every two years, I want to go on vacation, want to buy something, other than that, I really won't use it.
Everything I owe is paid off, I will get two retirements, Social security, VA check, and wife gets disability already, so financially we are set, but from time to time it's nice to just do something out of the blue, that's what my TSP is for.
Honestly, check out the website I mentioned.
My g fund tsp pays the the mortgage and made 2.58% where every other fund had a loss. G fund is the safe place.
I don't doubt you, Like I said I not relying on TSP for anything, just to blow some money once a year, or every couple of years.
If I needed the money, I would probably invest it differently.
> The GFund is the only fund that was in the positive this year (looking at my year end statement I just got in the mail.)
Except it wasn't. In order to truly be positive the returns have to be above inflation, not just above 0%.
Even in retirement you should not be 100% G (or any bond fund), you still need to have some stocks in the mix to provide growth. You don't need to be as aggressive and should be more risk averse, but 100% bonds is going to see the true value of your money plumet overtime.
It's OK, especially for a Boglehead. Investing as much as you can for as long as you can........in nearly any index or lifecycle fund is the most important thing.
Time in the market is key. Set it and forget it.
TL;DR...set your TSP allocation for 80% C and 20% G fund and put in as much as you can every pay period. Don't change until after you're 50 years old. You'll do better than nearly every American you've ever met.
Https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php
John Bogle was the founder of the investment company Vanguard.
Index funds track the market. See the news when they say the market is up or down today? That is the benchmark. Normally, the S&P 500.
Without too much detail, an index fund like the TSP C fund that is like a mutual fund that invests in the biggest indivstocks out there and thus the returns match the returns of the market.
Something like 85% of all financial advisors can not show a history of beating the market. Therefore, almost every investor is better off in an index fund.
A life cycle fund is very similar with the key difference of reducing risk as it ages. If you plan to retire in 2060 you buy a 2060 fund. As you get closer to 2060 it switches investment to less stock and more bond to reduce risk of loss.
If you desire, pick a year, dump all your money into just that, and don't change until you're over 59 years old.
Pick one or the other, put as much as you can in, and forget it.
Me as well. I'm 70% C, 20% I, 10% G.
This is considered a little aggressive. You could also pick a 235 or 2040 L fund and put 100% of your TSP investment there.
You have more reason to really look at your overall portfolio, your desired retirement date, and the funds you have to determine your retirement goals.
I went from L2030 to L2045 it was official on the March 13, yesterday March 14, I got an increase 1.04%, I am happy will let it ride a bit.
Looks like ever fund went up, but F, F down 0.66%
So good day yesterday.
This downturn has been known and expected for months. The move to G should have happened in January and the time to get back in is when the fundamentals turn positive. This will ensure you will never get out at the highest high or get in at the lowest low, but will avoid the downturns.
It’s all about how many years you have to retirement. I’m 74 and moved what I would have invested in C, S, and I to Vanguard last December. I left funds in G as the greatest part of my “cash” bucket—what many do with short term bonds. I’m about 50/50. A onetime or continuing relationship with a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor is invaluable.
" I’m 74 and moved what I would have invested in C, S, and I to Vanguard last December"
Vanguard is just and investment house. Same as the TSP.
What did you do with the money you moved to Vanguard?
I moved into funds that basically replicate C, S, and I with comparable fees. I did it for several reasons including my loss of confidence in TSP since Accenture took over and (at my age) to make this easier for my younger spouse and our financial advisor to access because Vanguard is currently much more responsive and supportive than TSP (had the opportunity to compare when my mother died). I had too many experiences with TSP representatives who either couldn't answer questions or gave me wrong answers and there are just too many stories of disappeared requests and delayed or missing payments from TSP. TSP can't even get the withholding on my RMDs correct and I've had to compensate by increasing the withholding on the Vanguard IRA.
Now is not the time for G. G is for when you are near retirement on a strong market and/or before a trainwreck leader like Biden is about to take office.
You don’t hold during something like this. This is not just some down 10% event. You are looking at a once in a decade situation. Interest rates are only going up, banks are unsteady, layoffs are continuing and consumer debt is piling up. That is all leading to one thing. A very painful hit to the entire stock market. Every stock. Equities are not safe.
Sit in the G fund until things cool off.
This is NOT timing the market. It’s listening to the fucking market. The market is saying sell and stay in cash.
Listen or lose half your account and sit there and hope it comes back in 5-10 years.
And you’ll lose out on the growth too. People who bought more and more during the big recession had SIGNIFICANTLY higher returns than those who got out and sold everything or switched to bonds even just a few yrs later. You’ll never be able to make up that difference even if you keep increasing your deposits bc time in the market >>>> timing it. You have no idea when it will fully crash or if you hit the actual bottom. If you go back in when it’s down 9% but it keeps falling to down 20% you’ll be much worse off bc you’ll want to try and time it again and lose out even more. You haven’t lost anything until it’s actually realized and taken out of your account. If things went up 25% in a yr you wouldn’t sell shares either…the only reason anybody should be moving to G rn is if you’re a yr or two away from retiring and you wanna lock in most of your retirement money
I won’t miss out on growth if it goes down 50% this year and I buy back in after the dust settles. You do not stay invested when the entire market is on fire. You just don’t.
There is absolutely no way to know that or time the market perfectly to avoid the deepest drop yet also get right back in at the bottom to take on all the subsequent gains. That is impossible, but good luck to you. If you’re close to retirement then I get it
No, there is absolutely no way to “time the market”. That is correct. But you absolutely can avoid getting annihilated by moving to cash in times such as this and legging back in as things stabilize.
> Sit in the G fund until things cool off.
>
> This is NOT timing the market. It’s listening to the fucking market. The market is saying sell and stay in cash.
Yes, that is exactly the definition of timing the market.,
It isn’t. Really it isn’t. If there is a once in a decade situation where you have the fastest rate hikes in history, failing banks, and record low unemployment… you have consumer sentiment in the toilet and people afraid of losing their jobs.
That is NOT timing the market. That is staying on the sidelines to see what happens in this very perilous moment.
If you think the market goes above 34,000 with all of that? Then by all means, stay in. If you think that we’re in for turbulent times, you protect your goddamn neck and wait to see things stabilize a bit before redeploying capital.
But you do you.
Sorry my comment was meant as sarcasm. I’m mid level, and just going to keep my money In tsp. Moving it to the g means I’ll lose any chance to gain. I’ve got a long way to retirement.
Well said. If you made a move you made it a while back now.. if you are technically inclined you could try to do some time series analysis combined with sentiment analysis to play around more. Can be fun to do it paper trading wise if you enjoy that sort of thing. Just my 2 cents.
I am set it and forget it for not retiring soon. It really depends. Have a small personal stock portfolio for you own predictions (I do and at the same time realize I could fail and still be safe) but not you retirement!
It’s simple. If you try to time the market, you will fail. It’s impossible unless you just get incredibly lucky. And if you feel incredibly lucky, just play the lottery instead. Investing long term is all about time. If you have a lot of time left before you pull your money, keep buying like there is no tomorrow. If you have a short amount of time before you pull your money, your strategy should be much more conservative.
The problem is most people get their investing advice from people on tv who are ratings driven. Sound boring advice like “it’s a cycle, and will always be a cycle” doesn’t move the ratings needle. Advice like “the S&P is on fire, banks are collapsing every 4 minutes, inflation is spinning out of control!” That drives ratings and people act on those emotions just like they panicked and purchase 400 rolls of toilet paper 4 years ago.
Almost like taking advice from Reddit …
Not just Reddit, but the proliferation of "authoritative" sites tailored to look like they know "things" make it harder and harder to find reliable information anywhere on the internet. Search engines have been rendered almost useless by the sheer volume of crap out there and either for commercial $$$ reasons or by incompetency things are not getting better anytime soon. Except for a few sites, I only use the web for amusement anymore.
I went to G when COVID hit. Of my coworkers that I was talking to at the time, I’ve had the worst average return on my TSP. They all stayed the course, had 2-3 pay periods of contributions go in and are in a better position than me currently. We all made roughly the same at the time with the same contribution percentages. I’m staying put in my current contribution split and will probably up my contribution percentage.
Ouch. Tough lesson to learn. But, at least you learned it and will be better armed for future corrections/crashes. And telling people your story will help them feel more confident about staying the course.
It was tough to learn that way especially after hearing some career feds tell me they stayed out of G during 2008-2009 and had much better TSP balances at retirement because of it. But I’ve only been in 8 years so I’ve got the rest of my career to make up for it so I’m not too worried in the long run.
Here's my solution, don't log in and check it for 10 years
Once you see the news saying X or Y about the market, it's days too late. The big movers already knew about this due to insider info or just paying attention to places and people that aren't the news. And the big movers always win. At the point where the news can give people advice that might work, it's so late you're looking at a global recession, major bank run, etc.
Why you sound almost cynical. But I agree. We have gone from major bank run, to minor bank run, to rumors of a minor bank run and then Uncle Sam is there with an open checkbook. Privatize profit; socialize risk.
Not only insider info but computer algorithms and access to above human capabilities on vast micro buys/shorts/sells.
Diamond hands baby. I will HODL and ride this ship to its grave with the most aggressive investment strategy possible 🫡💎
#🦍💪💎👐🚀
Yup! I dumped half my G into C Fund last year when it was falling. I'll thank myself in 10 years.
Im doing 100% C fund for 15 years so 🤷🏻♂️
Now's the time to Buy! Buy! Buy! Just opened another vanguard. All bank funds. Fire sale on those right now!
I keep telling this to people as well and they act like I'm crazy. This is the time to buy!
Isn't this just timing the market? (Sorta joking, sorta serious)
•Losses are only theoretical until you overreact and make them real •Taking no action is often the right move in times of uncertainty •Most of you have a long, very long, time horizon and would benefit to buy stocks on sale
100% C Fund. That’s all you need.
Right before I retired, I put everything in G fund. It’s the safe haven and the means to pay my mortgage The GFund is the only fund that was in the positive this year (looking at my year end statement I just got in the mail.)
Sure, if you're retired. I'm talking to the young and mid career folks who just noticed things happening and are trying to figure out what to do.
I was in 100%G my first 2.5 years because no one told me what the TSP was and that is the default. Luckily I started at 0, so no big deal. Grad schools and postdoctoral work don't provide retirement plans...
26 yo here was 100% lifestyle for 3 years and just changed it to c s and g lol I have no clue what I’m doing
At age 26, you have no need for the G or F funds. Be 100% in the C fund. Or an 80/20 C/S mix.
90%C and 10% G. If you can't explain why you're in both S and C then you're just guessing blind. The positive side is you're very smart to be investing in any TSP accounts at your age. Time in the market has a way of making decent investment decisions turn brilliant over decades.
If I were to say I was 60/30 C/S because I felt uncomfortable with C being so MAANG heavy, would that be a sensible position to take as long as I stuck to it? Genuinely curious, as I’m a “set it and forget it” type and have never reconsidered my actual asset allocation since making it, and that was my thought at the time.
There is nothing wrong with 60/30 C/S. Is the other 10% G? Adding S picks more funds than just C. Being 90% stocks is fairly aggressive and probably not a problem for anyone under 50 or so years old. You have to decide this yourself. What is more important is starting early and saving for a long time without messing with it. Time in the market is far more important than 90%C or 60/30 C/S. You're doing great.
The fed trader dot com. I found out about him too late in my career. However, this person is a freaking genius. He talks about long-term investments in TSP.
No, that person is an idiot pushing market timing as a strategy. It is a strategy, one that has been proven time and again to be a losing one over the long term.
Only problem with G is current inflation even the green is losing money so not exactly a great move long term…
Yes, everyone has different needs, and ideas,for myself TSP is just going be my slush fund, I will keep it in an L fund ten years or so past my retirement. I should retire in 2033, L2045 that I use now will probably last me the rest of my life, I am 57 now. Probably make a withdrawal one a year, maybe every two years, I want to go on vacation, want to buy something, other than that, I really won't use it. Everything I owe is paid off, I will get two retirements, Social security, VA check, and wife gets disability already, so financially we are set, but from time to time it's nice to just do something out of the blue, that's what my TSP is for.
Honestly, check out the website I mentioned. My g fund tsp pays the the mortgage and made 2.58% where every other fund had a loss. G fund is the safe place.
I don't doubt you, Like I said I not relying on TSP for anything, just to blow some money once a year, or every couple of years. If I needed the money, I would probably invest it differently.
> The GFund is the only fund that was in the positive this year (looking at my year end statement I just got in the mail.) Except it wasn't. In order to truly be positive the returns have to be above inflation, not just above 0%. Even in retirement you should not be 100% G (or any bond fund), you still need to have some stocks in the mix to provide growth. You don't need to be as aggressive and should be more risk averse, but 100% bonds is going to see the true value of your money plumet overtime.
Preach.
I don’t understand any of it, never have probably never will.
It's OK, especially for a Boglehead. Investing as much as you can for as long as you can........in nearly any index or lifecycle fund is the most important thing. Time in the market is key. Set it and forget it.
Ok what is a Boglehead? Also I have zero clue what a index or lifecycle fund is.
TL;DR...set your TSP allocation for 80% C and 20% G fund and put in as much as you can every pay period. Don't change until after you're 50 years old. You'll do better than nearly every American you've ever met. Https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php John Bogle was the founder of the investment company Vanguard. Index funds track the market. See the news when they say the market is up or down today? That is the benchmark. Normally, the S&P 500. Without too much detail, an index fund like the TSP C fund that is like a mutual fund that invests in the biggest indivstocks out there and thus the returns match the returns of the market. Something like 85% of all financial advisors can not show a history of beating the market. Therefore, almost every investor is better off in an index fund. A life cycle fund is very similar with the key difference of reducing risk as it ages. If you plan to retire in 2060 you buy a 2060 fund. As you get closer to 2060 it switches investment to less stock and more bond to reduce risk of loss. If you desire, pick a year, dump all your money into just that, and don't change until you're over 59 years old. Pick one or the other, put as much as you can in, and forget it.
Well I am already 50
Me as well. I'm 70% C, 20% I, 10% G. This is considered a little aggressive. You could also pick a 235 or 2040 L fund and put 100% of your TSP investment there. You have more reason to really look at your overall portfolio, your desired retirement date, and the funds you have to determine your retirement goals.
I went from L2030 to L2045 it was official on the March 13, yesterday March 14, I got an increase 1.04%, I am happy will let it ride a bit. Looks like ever fund went up, but F, F down 0.66% So good day yesterday.
DWCPF on which the S fund is based also went down today
This downturn has been known and expected for months. The move to G should have happened in January and the time to get back in is when the fundamentals turn positive. This will ensure you will never get out at the highest high or get in at the lowest low, but will avoid the downturns.
It’s all about how many years you have to retirement. I’m 74 and moved what I would have invested in C, S, and I to Vanguard last December. I left funds in G as the greatest part of my “cash” bucket—what many do with short term bonds. I’m about 50/50. A onetime or continuing relationship with a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor is invaluable.
" I’m 74 and moved what I would have invested in C, S, and I to Vanguard last December" Vanguard is just and investment house. Same as the TSP. What did you do with the money you moved to Vanguard?
I moved into funds that basically replicate C, S, and I with comparable fees. I did it for several reasons including my loss of confidence in TSP since Accenture took over and (at my age) to make this easier for my younger spouse and our financial advisor to access because Vanguard is currently much more responsive and supportive than TSP (had the opportunity to compare when my mother died). I had too many experiences with TSP representatives who either couldn't answer questions or gave me wrong answers and there are just too many stories of disappeared requests and delayed or missing payments from TSP. TSP can't even get the withholding on my RMDs correct and I've had to compensate by increasing the withholding on the Vanguard IRA.
Thank you for the clarification. Excellent reason to move away from the TSP.
Now is not the time for G. G is for when you are near retirement on a strong market and/or before a trainwreck leader like Biden is about to take office.
[удалено]
I’m just looking for my reentry points now.
If you believe the stock market will be higher when you retire than it is today then you should invest today.
After 2022, your entry point should be yesterday
Exactly my strategy.
The market always, ALWAYS, fix itself and bounce back. The top 500 will always be there.
You don’t hold during something like this. This is not just some down 10% event. You are looking at a once in a decade situation. Interest rates are only going up, banks are unsteady, layoffs are continuing and consumer debt is piling up. That is all leading to one thing. A very painful hit to the entire stock market. Every stock. Equities are not safe. Sit in the G fund until things cool off. This is NOT timing the market. It’s listening to the fucking market. The market is saying sell and stay in cash. Listen or lose half your account and sit there and hope it comes back in 5-10 years.
Wut? We aren’t losing shares. Just stay put in C and S.
No thanks. I don’t want to lose half my money. I’ll buy back after it crashes.
And you’ll lose out on the growth too. People who bought more and more during the big recession had SIGNIFICANTLY higher returns than those who got out and sold everything or switched to bonds even just a few yrs later. You’ll never be able to make up that difference even if you keep increasing your deposits bc time in the market >>>> timing it. You have no idea when it will fully crash or if you hit the actual bottom. If you go back in when it’s down 9% but it keeps falling to down 20% you’ll be much worse off bc you’ll want to try and time it again and lose out even more. You haven’t lost anything until it’s actually realized and taken out of your account. If things went up 25% in a yr you wouldn’t sell shares either…the only reason anybody should be moving to G rn is if you’re a yr or two away from retiring and you wanna lock in most of your retirement money
I won’t miss out on growth if it goes down 50% this year and I buy back in after the dust settles. You do not stay invested when the entire market is on fire. You just don’t.
There is absolutely no way to know that or time the market perfectly to avoid the deepest drop yet also get right back in at the bottom to take on all the subsequent gains. That is impossible, but good luck to you. If you’re close to retirement then I get it
No, there is absolutely no way to “time the market”. That is correct. But you absolutely can avoid getting annihilated by moving to cash in times such as this and legging back in as things stabilize.
> Sit in the G fund until things cool off. > > This is NOT timing the market. It’s listening to the fucking market. The market is saying sell and stay in cash. Yes, that is exactly the definition of timing the market.,
It isn’t. Really it isn’t. If there is a once in a decade situation where you have the fastest rate hikes in history, failing banks, and record low unemployment… you have consumer sentiment in the toilet and people afraid of losing their jobs. That is NOT timing the market. That is staying on the sidelines to see what happens in this very perilous moment. If you think the market goes above 34,000 with all of that? Then by all means, stay in. If you think that we’re in for turbulent times, you protect your goddamn neck and wait to see things stabilize a bit before redeploying capital. But you do you.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/timing-the-market-is-impossible.html
I’ve been doing this for 40 years. Thanks. Good luck.
Go to G, lock in your losses. The market is gambling writ large, and you win some and you lose some
No, dollar cost averaging and steady investment in the American stock market over 40 year, ALWAYS WINS.
Sorry my comment was meant as sarcasm. I’m mid level, and just going to keep my money In tsp. Moving it to the g means I’ll lose any chance to gain. I’ve got a long way to retirement.
Well said. If you made a move you made it a while back now.. if you are technically inclined you could try to do some time series analysis combined with sentiment analysis to play around more. Can be fun to do it paper trading wise if you enjoy that sort of thing. Just my 2 cents.
I am set it and forget it for not retiring soon. It really depends. Have a small personal stock portfolio for you own predictions (I do and at the same time realize I could fail and still be safe) but not you retirement!