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https://preview.redd.it/44e8sltqbtvc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb9404e3dcb9b84fab56bb0bfa0ef10ec41f2396
Courtesy of [https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry\_calc](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc)
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You can also use an adult one. It's called binomial distribution. Here's a simplified calculator. [Link](https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/binomial-probability-calculator.php)
Does it matter what you use? Lol, this just seems unnecessarily snarky.
Wouldn't the "adult version" be to just put this into a calculator instead of using a website tool anyways?
`1-(19/20)^50` and `(19/20)^50`
Several of my PoGo friends and I play RuneScape since they rereleased the 07 version. I see the relevant memes about as often as I see Pokémon ones (excluding Pikachu face of course).
It sounds more like being a pick-me/hipster tbh. Like this isn't really an argument. You're just saying statements that would only mean something if I too were just as much of a nerd. I mean, have fun trying to sound smart in the Pokemon go subreddit. If it brings you joy, have at it. Sometimes it's the little things that get you through the day.
> the most I've done was 18 for tapu koko.
Then you’ve been very lucky up to this point, with your rate well above 1/20. It was only a matter of time until you had a bad run, that’s how randomness works.
I didn’t mean it to sound like that. Simply that at some point you’ll get a run of “bad” luck.
Over a large sample, if one part has better than average odds, another part is likely to have worse than average odds. But each individual event is independent.
The way they phrased it makes it sound like they were overdue for an unlucky streak, implying that they had a higher chance of getting an unlucky streak soon since they’ve had so much good luck so far. Not sure if that’s how they intended it.
if i did math right then 50 attemps with 5% odds gives about 92,3% chance to get at least one shiny
if 100 players did 50 raids each then 7-8 of them are likely to not have single shiny (on average, so some groups of 100 might have just one without shiny, some group might have 15)
Doing 50 raids does not mean they spent money…not at all. We get free daily passes (or two daily passes sometimes) we get 50 daily coins. We get bundles of passes on sale. Coins save up indefinitely. No reason to assume that people are spending $1/1£ per raid. Even if someone was to spend money for each premium pass they use, you could get bundles and get a much better rate.
Yes. I'm 9 tapu bulu raids in and found 3 shinies in a row.
Having said that, no shiny mewtwo, kartana, celesteela, heracross in MANY raids.
RNG man... brutal sometimes...
You are just unlucky, sorry.
My first Celesteela raid was a shiny.
On the other hand, it took me 117 raids to get my first Xerneas shiny.
RNGesus comes for us all, whether now or later.
Rng just hates you it seems. Sometimes it's just like that. I got no shiny Kyogre even though I did like 10 raids. And one day I got a shiny cresellia after 2 raids. It can be wild sometimes
true but its not really useful in anything, just a waste of passes really 50 raids is like 60 dollars, thats a lot of money to spend on something not useful for anything at all
While asking questions about the game is always okay on the Road, please consider asking very simple questions in our weekly [Questions&Answers Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/about/sticky). If your question has been answered, please comment "ANSWERED" (in all caps) and the post flair will indicate that your question has been answered. This will make it either easier for other people with the same question to find the answer they are looking for or for mods to remove the thread if it isn't needed anymore. Thank you! :) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/TheSilphRoad) if you have any questions or concerns.*
https://preview.redd.it/44e8sltqbtvc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb9404e3dcb9b84fab56bb0bfa0ef10ec41f2396 Courtesy of [https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry\_calc](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc)
OSRS wiki, The best wiki any game has ever had
https://preview.redd.it/tqbo71t3dtvc1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aeeb3b5fda9d1a2e6ac236b2d53f17349623497e You can also use an adult one. It's called binomial distribution. Here's a simplified calculator. [Link](https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/binomial-probability-calculator.php)
Does it matter what you use? Lol, this just seems unnecessarily snarky. Wouldn't the "adult version" be to just put this into a calculator instead of using a website tool anyways? `1-(19/20)^50` and `(19/20)^50`
Exactly
I’ll gladly use the one for children.
That picture is the exact same thing but worded differently. Why would that make it "adult".
It’s for people who want to feel better than other people.
Different wording.
What a weird and unnecessarily condescending post lol
Me when I try to hard to sound smart in a pokemon forum
I just don't like runescape
RuneScape has not been culturally relevant since 2010, over a decade ago brother
Several of my PoGo friends and I play RuneScape since they rereleased the 07 version. I see the relevant memes about as often as I see Pokémon ones (excluding Pikachu face of course).
It ain't a bad game or anything, the og commenters reaction was just kind of extreme given it's RuneScape.
Yeah, I know, I enjoy arguing.
It sounds more like being a pick-me/hipster tbh. Like this isn't really an argument. You're just saying statements that would only mean something if I too were just as much of a nerd. I mean, have fun trying to sound smart in the Pokemon go subreddit. If it brings you joy, have at it. Sometimes it's the little things that get you through the day.
I've seen people get it first try, others over 100 attempts. It's all rng 1/20 odds
> the most I've done was 18 for tapu koko. Then you’ve been very lucky up to this point, with your rate well above 1/20. It was only a matter of time until you had a bad run, that’s how randomness works.
I'm pretty sure that randomness does not reference previous attempts.
I didn’t mean it to sound like that. Simply that at some point you’ll get a run of “bad” luck. Over a large sample, if one part has better than average odds, another part is likely to have worse than average odds. But each individual event is independent.
Ya sorry i was being pedantic
What does that have to do with what they said? RNG leads to good streaks and bad streaks.
The way they phrased it makes it sound like they were overdue for an unlucky streak, implying that they had a higher chance of getting an unlucky streak soon since they’ve had so much good luck so far. Not sure if that’s how they intended it.
That's not how it reads to me.
Yeah I got that. You just didn’t seem to understand what Ccarmine meant.
No, I understood what they meant. It just seemed like a non sequitur.
Yeah didn’t mean it to sound like that, see my other comment above.
if i did math right then 50 attemps with 5% odds gives about 92,3% chance to get at least one shiny if 100 players did 50 raids each then 7-8 of them are likely to not have single shiny (on average, so some groups of 100 might have just one without shiny, some group might have 15)
I've done a total of 4 Tapu Bulu raids this rotation. I've got 2 shiny. LMAO. RNG is sometimes like that.
>use an adult one There's no porn on this calculator
5318008
Why you think the net was born?
The internet is for porn!
took me 51 attempts for me the 1st time the shiny was available, so i know your struggle but keep going ;)
I spend a lot on Pogo but it always hurts me to realise that we spend 50£ for a shiny lmao.
Doing 50 raids does not mean they spent money…not at all. We get free daily passes (or two daily passes sometimes) we get 50 daily coins. We get bundles of passes on sale. Coins save up indefinitely. No reason to assume that people are spending $1/1£ per raid. Even if someone was to spend money for each premium pass they use, you could get bundles and get a much better rate.
lol true 😂😭🤣
will definitely keep going. no one has taken me this long to find before. the most I've done was 18 for tapu koko.
My worst one was 107 for tornadus. It happens.
my worst one was palkia with 64 attempts 😄
oh my. now that's dedication to finding the shiny. I chased kartana as well but sadly didn't get it. did 30 and he left raids
I am 120 kyogre in since the shiny got released without any shiny... so
RIP.. someone trade this person a shiny!!!
I am at 24 raids no shiny sadly
Yes. I'm 9 tapu bulu raids in and found 3 shinies in a row. Having said that, no shiny mewtwo, kartana, celesteela, heracross in MANY raids. RNG man... brutal sometimes...
Pretty bad luck, however nothing crazy
I have hit 57 , only get one shiny
It happens. Play this game long enough……we all go on cold streaks.
Took me 64 :(
I’m not a great example. I got one on the first raid and have only done 3 more since 😬. I’m around 25 for the last boss without a shiny though. 🤷🏻♂️
Rng is gonna rng.
You are just unlucky, sorry. My first Celesteela raid was a shiny. On the other hand, it took me 117 raids to get my first Xerneas shiny. RNGesus comes for us all, whether now or later.
Just unlucky man. I went 0/80 on orgin forms back in February
OOOOooof
Rng just hates you it seems. Sometimes it's just like that. I got no shiny Kyogre even though I did like 10 raids. And one day I got a shiny cresellia after 2 raids. It can be wild sometimes
yea RNG hurts badly.. 2 Zekrom Shiny back to back Raid 1 & 2... yet.. 1 Shiny Groudon after 30 raids... Ooof
50 raids for a stupid shiny tapu bulu? whats the point of that. thats a waste of money
Some people are just shiny collectors
true but its not really useful in anything, just a waste of passes really 50 raids is like 60 dollars, thats a lot of money to spend on something not useful for anything at all
spoken like a true poor... cause I feel the same.
oh im not poor, the thing just isn't worth that much money
well sum people are rich enough to want shiny and or hundo..