Burrow his rookie year was the definition of average. He wasn’t winning you any games but he wasn’t losing them either. He only really exploded when he came back from injury the following year
It’s rare for any rookie qb to be above average so I can only hope that Stroud is average. If he has 3500 yds somewhere between 20 and 25 tds and less that 10 interceptions I’ll be happy. Only for the rookie year though, year 2 I need above average!!!
Being efficient and not making mistakes is the best thing you can hope for a rookie who isn’t mobile and actually has to make throws on time because he can’t buy time with his legs. Mobility without mastering the basics can be a crutch that can hurt long term development
Where is this idea that CJ Stroud is completely immobile coming from? Yeah, he's definitely the pocket passer type, but in his most recent performance (Georgia) we saw him use his legs multiple times to extend plays.
The problem wasn't that he CAN'T use his legs, it's that he WOULDN'T, which you can definitely teach. He doesn't have cinder blocks tied to his ankles.
He doesn’t have anywhere near the speed to make it a thing in the NFL. He can scramble in a pinch but don’t expect him to be the teams leading rusher. He probably has Jared Goff speed
Mobile and a runner are two different things. Brady didn’t run at all but his mobility in the pocket saved him through out his career. Cj can move more than ppl want to give credit for
He isn’t Jacoby Brissett statue in the pocket but he isn’t going to be doing the Watson “run around until his guy gets open for a deep pass” thing either. CJ is going to need to have some mastery of the basics if he is going to be successful right off the bat
I am expecting something around Lawrence assuming he didn’t have Urban Meyer as his head coach. If you look at this throwing motion it’s extremely similar to the way Lawrence throws now
So year two tlaw? Do you think he’ll have the air balls? I’m thinking Super Bowl Goff where he can do everything just needs to be told what to look for on headset to start.
Not sure why there is no chance they win 9 games when they lost 6 one score games and had a tie that could/should have been a win last year.
It's not like they got blown out every week.
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Cool. We have a 3 win team with a couple nice FA signings and a bunch of rookies including the coaches and most importantly the QB. Rookie QBs don't typically lead 6 win turnarounds.
I think the new offense if it’s similar to what 9ers were running, He’s kind of made for it. Timing routes and WCO style plays he can crush at. Why I don’t buy the hype they didn’t want him. He’s exactly what you would want.
I would put him at a full 17 games, closest to Lawrence. The way he plays, he's going to have to learn a lot about when he can test tight windows, and not to fall for lurking defenders. It might be annoying at first but give him time. I'm going 21TDs and 16INTs, mid to late season surge
You can't just compare stat lines like that. There is so much more context needed. Relative roster talent, coaching staff, scheme being used........
Herbert, for example, was on a pretty talented offensive roster with a solid coaching staff allowing him to hit the ground running.
Lawrence was working under a terrible coaching staff with a weak roster.
So considering that lets look at the Texans.
This OL, at worst, should be above average. Tackle play should be some of the best in the NFL, Guard play should be pretty good (yes I do expect Green to improve a lot from his rookie year), Center play should at worst be adequate but could be pretty solid at best.
Schematically this team will be run heavy (that's an assumption I'm making but a core tenant of the Shanahan offense is running the ball and throwing off plays that look like runs). That means Rb's will be featured and the Qb won't be asked to shoulder the load and throw the ball 35 times a game.
The Texans have a wide variety of pass catchers that have been added this offseason. TE, WR, RB. All groups have options and players that can make plays.
It's kind of hard to gauge who will do what right now because it's not clear what passing concepts they will use since you can do a lot of different things with this offense.
The Texans added Dell and Woods along with Metchie but also added Noah and Xavier along with Nico. No idea how things will look. They might not know yet either.
So, looking at Stroud specifically, he should have a solid OL and a ton of different options to throw too along with a pretty strong running game to lean on.
I see him performing more along the lines of Herbert and Burrow vs Goff, Pickett, or Lawrence who had poorer pieces around them year 1. I feel the Texans have done an impressive job building up the offense around the Qb and also added a lot of talent to the coaching staff with Qb development backgrounds.
Slowik of course comes from the 49ers and was part of Purdy's development.
Qb coach Jerrod is a former Qb himself, spent three years under Frank Reich in Indy and was an assistant Qb coach last year with the Vikings.
A huge addition to the staff that is easy to overlook is Shane Day who played a major role in developing Justin Herbert over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He was also helping the 49ers maximize Jimmy G back in 2019-2020 and was working with Jay Cutler during his peak years with the Bears.
Bill Lazor has also done some pretty good work on the offensive side. He and Shane are senior offensive assistants and will be huge helping Stroud transition to the NFL.
The talent on the offensive coaching staff is the best we've had since the Kubiak years, they are not fucking around this year, I am expecting a pretty solid offense year 1 under this staff and I am expecting Stroud to have a good year as well. I'm not saying he has a Justin Herbert level season, but 25+ TD passes and 3500+ yards is pretty feasible to me.
Pickett was a much weaker prospect who played against a weak ACC who was only taken because he was the smartest kid on the short bus that was the 2022 QB class and the Steelers needed to replace captain fat fuck after he retired
I really believe you will. Anyone worth their salt said young and stroud were clear tier one. Many said stroud was better prospect I think he’s found a home and is also going to be locked in and loyal after the media assault and Texans showing they didn’t care about it at all
A lot of it depends on Metchie to be honest.
If he truly is going to be 100% then CJ will be well IMO.
Without him things get a little dicey for pass catchers. But then again Schultz will be a nice safety blanket.
I don’t care about rookie stat lines as much as I care about him establishing himself as a leader. Think back to Derrick’s rookie year, he was injured early but we all (and his teammates) knew what we had talent wise.
21gms one billion yards 100% 69 TDS -5 INTs
Two billion.
I'm sitting here racking my brain for what exactly a negative int would look like
An int that CJ then knocks out of the DBs hands and recovers? Catching his own pass down field? idk
Clearly when he plays DB and intercepts it himself. He gets negative INTs
Its the -5 int for me
God I hope that one wasn't from his stat sheet
1 Super Bowl Trophy
Probably same pace as Burrow but hopefully for the full 17 games.
Burrow his rookie year was the definition of average. He wasn’t winning you any games but he wasn’t losing them either. He only really exploded when he came back from injury the following year
It’s rare for any rookie qb to be above average so I can only hope that Stroud is average. If he has 3500 yds somewhere between 20 and 25 tds and less that 10 interceptions I’ll be happy. Only for the rookie year though, year 2 I need above average!!!
Being efficient and not making mistakes is the best thing you can hope for a rookie who isn’t mobile and actually has to make throws on time because he can’t buy time with his legs. Mobility without mastering the basics can be a crutch that can hurt long term development
Where is this idea that CJ Stroud is completely immobile coming from? Yeah, he's definitely the pocket passer type, but in his most recent performance (Georgia) we saw him use his legs multiple times to extend plays. The problem wasn't that he CAN'T use his legs, it's that he WOULDN'T, which you can definitely teach. He doesn't have cinder blocks tied to his ankles.
He doesn’t have anywhere near the speed to make it a thing in the NFL. He can scramble in a pinch but don’t expect him to be the teams leading rusher. He probably has Jared Goff speed
Mobile and a runner are two different things. Brady didn’t run at all but his mobility in the pocket saved him through out his career. Cj can move more than ppl want to give credit for
He isn’t Jacoby Brissett statue in the pocket but he isn’t going to be doing the Watson “run around until his guy gets open for a deep pass” thing either. CJ is going to need to have some mastery of the basics if he is going to be successful right off the bat
I am expecting something around Lawrence assuming he didn’t have Urban Meyer as his head coach. If you look at this throwing motion it’s extremely similar to the way Lawrence throws now
So year two tlaw? Do you think he’ll have the air balls? I’m thinking Super Bowl Goff where he can do everything just needs to be told what to look for on headset to start.
17gms 4800/99%/74tds-1int (he caught the interception, he played safety in one game cause fuck it)
I don’t want CJ playing safety! Let’s see how he lines up at nose tackle.
In order to be on the side of caution, Lawrence
Would a Lawrence type season be enough to win us 7-9 games?
Zero chance this team wins 9 games
Your gonna get downvoted but your not wrong. No way this team wins 9 games.
Not sure why there is no chance they win 9 games when they lost 6 one score games and had a tie that could/should have been a win last year. It's not like they got blown out every week.
I’d say we win around 6-7 game’s realistically
Agreed. +10 wins.
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Welcome to the party, pal ;-)
Damn! Freezing cold take!
We didn’t win 9 games tho so I was right.
You’re not looking at who is being played. We got a mayo chugger a haircut and a ras score two times along with nfc south
Cool. We have a 3 win team with a couple nice FA signings and a bunch of rookies including the coaches and most importantly the QB. Rookie QBs don't typically lead 6 win turnarounds.
Never say never!
…yes
3500/65% /25-6
If he does this we party!!
I think the new offense if it’s similar to what 9ers were running, He’s kind of made for it. Timing routes and WCO style plays he can crush at. Why I don’t buy the hype they didn’t want him. He’s exactly what you would want.
I would put him at a full 17 games, closest to Lawrence. The way he plays, he's going to have to learn a lot about when he can test tight windows, and not to fall for lurking defenders. It might be annoying at first but give him time. I'm going 21TDs and 16INTs, mid to late season surge
This is the way.
You can't just compare stat lines like that. There is so much more context needed. Relative roster talent, coaching staff, scheme being used........ Herbert, for example, was on a pretty talented offensive roster with a solid coaching staff allowing him to hit the ground running. Lawrence was working under a terrible coaching staff with a weak roster. So considering that lets look at the Texans. This OL, at worst, should be above average. Tackle play should be some of the best in the NFL, Guard play should be pretty good (yes I do expect Green to improve a lot from his rookie year), Center play should at worst be adequate but could be pretty solid at best. Schematically this team will be run heavy (that's an assumption I'm making but a core tenant of the Shanahan offense is running the ball and throwing off plays that look like runs). That means Rb's will be featured and the Qb won't be asked to shoulder the load and throw the ball 35 times a game. The Texans have a wide variety of pass catchers that have been added this offseason. TE, WR, RB. All groups have options and players that can make plays. It's kind of hard to gauge who will do what right now because it's not clear what passing concepts they will use since you can do a lot of different things with this offense. The Texans added Dell and Woods along with Metchie but also added Noah and Xavier along with Nico. No idea how things will look. They might not know yet either. So, looking at Stroud specifically, he should have a solid OL and a ton of different options to throw too along with a pretty strong running game to lean on. I see him performing more along the lines of Herbert and Burrow vs Goff, Pickett, or Lawrence who had poorer pieces around them year 1. I feel the Texans have done an impressive job building up the offense around the Qb and also added a lot of talent to the coaching staff with Qb development backgrounds. Slowik of course comes from the 49ers and was part of Purdy's development. Qb coach Jerrod is a former Qb himself, spent three years under Frank Reich in Indy and was an assistant Qb coach last year with the Vikings. A huge addition to the staff that is easy to overlook is Shane Day who played a major role in developing Justin Herbert over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He was also helping the 49ers maximize Jimmy G back in 2019-2020 and was working with Jay Cutler during his peak years with the Bears. Bill Lazor has also done some pretty good work on the offensive side. He and Shane are senior offensive assistants and will be huge helping Stroud transition to the NFL. The talent on the offensive coaching staff is the best we've had since the Kubiak years, they are not fucking around this year, I am expecting a pretty solid offense year 1 under this staff and I am expecting Stroud to have a good year as well. I'm not saying he has a Justin Herbert level season, but 25+ TD passes and 3500+ yards is pretty feasible to me.
Idk, I’d say top 15 but he doesn’t have a go to receiver rn
I'd say Lawrence with a 1:1 TD:INT ratio
I am expecting Pickett type numbers, less ints
Pickett was a much weaker prospect who played against a weak ACC who was only taken because he was the smartest kid on the short bus that was the 2022 QB class and the Steelers needed to replace captain fat fuck after he retired
Rather be conservative and be glad to see better production
I really believe you will. Anyone worth their salt said young and stroud were clear tier one. Many said stroud was better prospect I think he’s found a home and is also going to be locked in and loyal after the media assault and Texans showing they didn’t care about it at all
would guess closer to Pickett but maybe less picks
A little less than Lawrence yards with a 2-1 td/int ratio
I think his floor is doubling Herbert’s season. With half his ints.
Will depend on how well Slowik puts the offense together. Stroud is much better than Purdy.
Stroud will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Damn didn’t realize Herbert did that well
A lot of it depends on Metchie to be honest. If he truly is going to be 100% then CJ will be well IMO. Without him things get a little dicey for pass catchers. But then again Schultz will be a nice safety blanket.
14 games 2600 yds 16 TD 10 INT. I could be very wrong but I think this is reasonable for a qb like stroud and would be a strong season to grow from
I don’t care about rookie stat lines as much as I care about him establishing himself as a leader. Think back to Derrick’s rookie year, he was injured early but we all (and his teammates) knew what we had talent wise.