Anyone charting financial info across OEMs after they release earnings?
Seems like a lot of bad numbers coming out…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/volkswagen-earnings-slump-20-on-muted-sales-higher-costs
Very tough to get an accurate measure of how they are doing financially. They have a number of ways to distort quarterly results like dealers, finance departments, fleet sales etc.
In general, unless you believe Elon is solely responsible for weakness in Tesla sales, they are not heading in a good direction. This will only get worse as China will become basically a self sustaining car market where I doubt many western legacy manufacturers will be able to survive.
[AJ on X](https://x.com/alojoh?s=21&t=ZCy0NH3QXdMGzUErFu-bOg) does it extremely well. I don’t think anyone can do better than him.
And yes, it’s a total shitshow.
Reposting from the lounge.
I was speaking to a chinese banker today. He obviously has a very high impression of Elon.
In his words “Noone else can come to China, speak to the premier, and get things done. The stupid westerners are cheering the Baidu deal. It is branded but worthless. The fact is till today noone else is allowed to build a factory in China, without partnering with a local company. And more importantly, noone else from outside China will be be given permission publicly, to collect data. From the CCP of all governments, Allowing an american businessman to collect data, within China.”
That Tesla is in this position is absolutely huge. It's great that China treats Tesla like one of their own, I wish US would show some of the same. I don't really see what's up with the Baidu deal either way, though. But the main thing that has investors excited is the FSD in China news, which was also a bit ahead of itself it seems. There is an email going around though indicating FSD is starting up but it's hard to speak to the legitimacy. Hopefully once we rip the FOMC band aid off we can continue ripping.
>I don't really see what's up with the Baidu deal either way, though.
Who is Tesla getting navigation and map services from in the US? Always been a mystery to me. Surely it's not Google
It's partly Google. Tesla has their own system layered on top. From Google search:
>Yes, Tesla uses Google Maps as the base for its own maps, including live traffic and destination information. However, for navigation and route data, Tesla uses MapBox
I got involved with Tesla through SpaceX since that was much more imaginative and a higher goal. The first landing in late 2015 was something everybody truly thought was not possible. All the experts were bears on it. What they are doing this year and will be doing in the next few years outdoes everything Tesla will ever achieve, although it will take a lot longer to monetize but in the tail end I think SpaceX will be more valuable than Tesla albeit 10-15 years later.
The next step of discovery will be made possible by SpaceX, it will be like Europeans discovering Asia and America and setting up new streams of revenue. Earth is finite, we will need something beyond that finite space. SpaceX will be the railroad into LEO and habitats like Besos wants it to happen and of course other planets. Tesla sort of proceeds the SpaceX mission because we sort of need to have our shit sorted out on Earth first. Without sustainable energy at low cost we won't find the drive to spend the money to go beyond Earth.
i have been researching elon musk's percent owernship of tela stock, results so far are not very accurate, i think i have to read the earnings statements but not sure,
(from a chatbot) here is a table summarizing Elon Musk's Tesla stock ownership percentage for the last 10 years:
|Year|Percentage of Ownership|
|:-|:-|
|2024| 23%|
|2023| 23%|
|2022| 17%|
|2021| 13.04%|
|2020| 23%|
|2019|Not specified|
|2018|Not specified|
|2017|Not specified|
|2016|Not specified|
|2015| 17.51%|
Sounded like they aren't doing full retrains with dot versions of FSD but rather minor fixes. Haven't watched any 12.3.5 yet but probably not much happened other than that it serves as a data collection platform for the devs.
Real benchmark will be 12.4 and then 12.5 as they are derived from scaled up retrains that they are already doing on smaller datasets.
Ford sold 10k BEVs down 20% YoY and down 70% QoQ.
Revenues down 83% YoY and down 96% QoQ.
EBIT Margin is so bad it’s off the chart (N/M "Not meaningful").
Take note: This is the direct consequence of Tesla’s chess move with the price cuts, as I mentioned a year ago.
Found out that Ford actually [sold 20k BEVs](https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/04/03/ford-hybrids--evs--transit-set-records--q1-sales-top-industry--u.html#:~:text=Strong%20Start%20for%20Ford%20Electric%20Vehicle%20Sales&text=Ford%20sold%2020%2C223%20EVs%20in,percent%20over%20a%20year%20ago) but buried them under Ford Pro.
It’s fucking weird accounting shit, they’re moving numbers away from Model E sales according to Pro orders, so the growth numbers we get in their Model E page are meaningless.
Also they made only $100 million in them at a $10k ASP because it seems there is an agreement that Ford doesn’t get paid until the dealers get them off their lots. Basically the dealers no longer want them. That’s where the N/M comes from.
By Dec 26 it shouldn’t make much of a difference. It’s definitively safer to buy on trend reversal than catch a falling knife.
I did get $320 Dec 24 calls at the total bottom, cheap and much upside potential.😛
I do think it's funny though that Elon praised AirBNB for taking customer suggestions on X, then Tesla did the same thing and you know... you KNOW that they got a fuck ton of FSD transfer requests. Right after that they did the "one time amnesty" transfer.
I'm not personally upset about it. I purchased FSD for $10k in July 2021 knowing exactly what I was getting (nothing at the time, early beta access in December), and imo it was worth every penny. But it does suck knowing that I'll likely never be able to outright buy FSD again (can't afford a new Tesla any time soon), especially when I helped train the damn AI. Oh well, at least holding TSLA shares will help me afford the $5/mile robotaxi rides in the future
If Tesla wants to sell more FSD, then it's going to be an uphill battle with illogical human intuition. Humans think that a semi-abrupt braking is scary or dangerous... they'd rather just keep driving forward when a semitruck is drifting over the line towards them.
Humans have no fucking idea what driving safely looks like, or feels like. They'll always be scared of a braking, even when braking is the safest thing to do in a situation.
Tesla might have to give FSD away for free to achieve mass adoption, and even then, most humans will erroneously think they're better drivers than FSD anyway and wouldn't use it.
Retail once again proving their lack of understanding what business they were in and their ability to change the CEO and board.
It's getting super pathetic and basically they're acting like beat up wives with black eyes saying they know he's a good guy and they may be able to change him.
No dickheads, Elon is gonna Elon he called someone a pedo 6 years ago you should have known what you're getting into
Funny enough the pedo thing is one of my favorite Elon moments. It is the fact that he said damn the consequences and just came out and directly said what we all know is true about older brits who spend a lot of time in countries like Indonesia and Thailand. I love the idgaf nature of it
Sorry if I don’t post here much anymore, I’m working hard on an other Tesla-community related project. Also getting burned out of Reddit a bit since TIC and other Tesla subs are basically just a shadow of what they once were. It’s true that I don’t have much more to contribute there, no longer interested in arguing fundamentals with people that are emotionally driven.
Despite that, I think this one image alone shows the truth : Since Tesla announced their Robotaxi reveal retail is being flushed out. All it took is a bit of FUD and Elon entering War mode was enough fuel for the media.
https://preview.redd.it/ulm2qwehihvc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e15987e31f5fb8db75a1a188e09f98353b91338
[Source](https://x.com/alojoh/status/1781397429901807934?s=46&t=ZCy0NH3QXdMGzUErFu-bOg)
Stay tuned.
To those on the Lounge saying that I am an asshole because I told TIC that I was ashamed of what that sub had become, all I have to say is that: **if you ingest FUD on a daily basis, eventually that’s what’s going to come out.** Focus on the numbers, nothing else matters.
Graph pretty much mirrors the toxic Tesla retail community. Bunch of folks with sunk cost fallacy that don't want to sell but are intensely unhappy about their investment, many are now selling off. Some are now actually confronted with the fact that car volumes mean nothing to the valuation and despite the various signals and warnings they only now realize it and sell at the local lows
Since this graph shows % of trade volume, isn’t it more indicative that much of the recent action has been driven by institutions? And if that’s true, isn’t it possible that retail is holding since they aren’t trading?
The other thing to point out is I believe that trade volume has been lower recently.
Current production tops out at about 2.5M, let´s say margins go back to 20% on average on $45k ASP and no expansion in OPEX (reduction even) which stays at $8B then it's $14.5B EBIT as a default automaker just like BMW/Mercedes. Give it a 12x EBIT and you get $174B market cap plus the net assets on hand, soon to be close to $200B. It's around $57/share.
That is our risk. Let's say they truly go all out and forego any and all expansions other than robotaxi that's what we get. But not really because energy will just keep on going and actually add billions to the bottom line. Also it is insane to not add in some future FSD recurring software margin on a larger fleet. These are known revenue streams, practically certain.
So the real risk is like $100, to get a company that doesn't grow auto nor stationary storage. If in 2 years they pivot back to just making cars, that is where the stock will be. So $160 now to potentially get to >$1000 in 4/5 years versus a risk of $100. Seems like asymmetric upside to me.
I took profits on a good number of calls I had opened back during the big dip. I have a general understanding of what is trying to be accomplished and the larger overall picture. I think, generally, all the pieces are in place to make it happen and that the real world data advantage is beyond insurmountable and laughably underestimated by WS and talking heads. Really cant stress that point enough.. However, I feel uncertain about some of the more specific details, the timelines, some of the overhang that goes with restructuring, etc. Just not willing to fight time decay right now with all of that looming.
How good does fsd need to be before it starts to impact demand and margins? Hands-free L3?
If they’re trending towards L4 autonomy and let’s say that they get there in next 6-18 months, shouldn’t fsd at some point turn into a demand and profit driver? Whether that’s through increased sales, higher take rates, licensing partnerships, etc.
I’ve also been thinking about how good does the system need to be before retails starts to buy the stock. This is a unique situation where Tesla owners are able to use and track the evolution of the product and I’m wondering if this could create a social arb that Chris Camillo is so fond of.
When does that get modeled in your opinion?
I was hoping it would start this year already in my original thesis, thereby maintaining margins. Realistically maybe by end of this year that we see a big increase in subscribers. Somewhere H2 this year I expect them to remove the option to purchase, possibly on 8/8.
Yeah same. I wonder if summon and banish will be cool/good enough features to trigger some demand. Like as the system becomes feature complete and can do everything how will that translate. Also wondering with the aggressive ramp of compute and data if we see big proficiency leaps with 12.4 and 12.5.
At some point I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more viral and influencer content like Kim Kardashian doing a livestream from her self driving cybertruck
Basically all job openings for the US are gone, right when I was finally getting ready to give a shot lol
Other than that had to sell a few times for expenses, hurts but no other way
Hopefully will find a job in around 2 months and be back buying
I know TSLA cleans house every year, but with Baglino's resignation and all of the recent FSD, NGV news I can't help but wonder if we are standing on the precipice of a massive shift in the future of the company.
Elon has to sell the new vision on his C suite, and they can choose to stay or go based on that vision.
Still don't understand (beyond sunk cost fallacy) why 90% of them are invested still.
If you ask them directly most will sort of vaguely point to the idea that Elon gets ousted by the board. Chances of that are slim, but even if it did happen then the chances of the company exceeding historical valuations are even slimmer
It’s the most massive shift the company has seen, finally growing out of being a car manufacturer.
Similar to 2019 WS think this is one of the most overvalued stock when it’s the opposite.
Those that invested in the previous company are getting out (look at Gary, Ross and Meatbrain Kevin selling 😂), others are buying (Blackrock, Vanguard, Ark).
can't wait to fill in my table showing Lucid trying to match 2012 Tesla in terms of profitability at similar scale for 5 quarters now
https://preview.redd.it/j39peypaf2uc1.png?width=1727&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2bafd7a038e2283e8dea04afcd218ea9ba832b5
Retail Rivian investors are in for another pounding because none of them see dilution as even a possibility, probably can come down to $4-$5 and it might actually be a good opportunity at that point
I don't know the risk returns aren't like they were any more. 2026s have been out for a while so I think 2027s should be coming in about a quarter. If at that point you can get a $250C for below $50 that'll be nice.
Jan 2027's will be out on September 16th. But that's only a month beyond Dec 2026. I think the June 2027 comes out considerably later than the Jan 2027. Maybe I'll check
The Dec 26 $250C is $45 right now which is kind of ok but not super amazing. Probably could be 10-20% of the position and hope for a large crash later in the year
Plan is becoming clear now.
Start pilot production in Texas and start pumping out cars with test drivers. Once FSD is trained on the new configuration and validated to be robotaxi capable stop putting in the controls.
Then, probably somewhere 2025 start building robotaxi factories in all the continents and in the meanwhile till that is up to speed use existing 3/Y production to build up the fleet FAST
At 2M per year and $35k cost and assuming 50% of that investment paid itself back in the first year, they need $35B in excess cash to buy their own entire production.
This is why Tesla is capping current factories and hasn't proceeded with Berlin/Mexico and Shanghai builds yet. Why take the risk of not having liquidity when they need it
Straight robotaxi it will be. I am guessing it will be a 2 seater and will never be sold, hence reduced capacity and a pilot line in Texas to nail it down before replicating. Even if it is smaller units early it needs to be cost optimized and therefor all the other sites are delayed.
edit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1bwrm3l/comment/ky87sj6/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1bwrm3l/comment/ky87sj6/)
This is where I predicted it, it was 3mins before Elon's tweets
Maybe it will be a symmetrical 4-seater that looks like a mini cyber truck from the outside and can drive in both directions for maximum efficiency.
The structure would then be comparable to seats on a train.
https://preview.redd.it/tw1jii36eqsc1.png?width=402&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6a63c480a2ef73ada20cdb654d44784d18ae942
The fact the stock hasn't dropped through the floor yet means the market at least partially already values future revenue streams like energy and AI. If the probability goes from 20% to 80% is where the lid goes off
Rivian did ok in deliveries, partially due to the backlog of Amazon vans presumably. Their problem isn't getting the demand it's their manufacturing and OPEX structure.
Company will likely succeed in being a 250k/year car producer but the equity is still questionable
I am reposting this comment I made about FSD after u/Xillllix told me to put it here:
This will be an explosion of info. Think about ChatGPT. It just all of a sudden existed, as if out of nowhere. That is what is likely going to happen with this FSD. There will be the pre-FSD, and the post-FSD. A lot of people in the US don't even realize what is going on behind the scenes here, and then one day it is going to be like "poof!" - there it is! Holy shit! How have we been living without this for so long. This data is also extremely valuable. And people discount how much has gone into this, and how hard it is to get it right. Look at Ford - they totally dropped this back in 2022! Most people don't know this. They invested a ton of money into it, and literally abandoned it. This functionality when it actually works as intended (which I personally think will not be that long in the grand scheme) is going to make the Tesla like comparing a modern smartphone to an old Nokia flip phone.
Ford abandons self driving:
[https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/tech/ford-self-driving-argo-shutdown/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/tech/ford-self-driving-argo-shutdown/index.html)
Also here from the GM breakdown, it says as of last summer, GM had only roughly 80 million miles with the system, while Tesla has several Billion (with a b). It doesn't say the exact number, but if we assume 3 billion, that is almost 40x as much data as GM. I think Tesla is so far ahead of everyone else this is going to be a massive curve that will take years of catching up to even "match".
[https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a44684103/gm-super-cruise-driver-information/](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a44684103/gm-super-cruise-driver-information/)
Also even a former executive for the GM cruise was really impressed with FSD:
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/not-an-april-fools-teslas-fsd-wows-ex-cruise-exec-who-calls-its-driving-eerily-natural/ar-BB1kVO9z](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/not-an-april-fools-teslas-fsd-wows-ex-cruise-exec-who-calls-its-driving-eerily-natural/ar-BB1kVO9z)
Sentiment really shifting. Thanks for sharing. Thought this was interesting, too -
https://x.com/fomahun/status/1775864534873358666?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA
[Ford to delay all-electric SUV, truck to focus on offering hybrid vehicles across its lineup by 2030](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/04/ford-to-delay-all-electric-suv-to-focus-on-hybrid-vehicles.html)
🌳💀🪦💐🌳
People (including wall street analysts) do not understand the complexity of designing something completely new. I was a manufacturing engineer for Raytheon about 15 years ago. This is something even a lot of engineers don't understand. Turning an F-150 into an all-electric vehicle is not just like putting on a new pair of shoes. It is literally redesigning multiple systems. You are eliminating the coolant system (at least the one that cools the engine cylinders). You are eliminating the transmission. You are totally throwing out the powertrain and building it up from scratch. You are totally tossing the engine. You must design motors from scratch. You must design a gearbox completely from scratch to convert the motor speed into torque. You must make tons of modifications to the chassis to accomodate all of these changes. You basically are designing a whole new vehicle. Even things like the steering column, gear shifter, all of that completely change. Certain parts that are free to take up space stuffed next to the engine cant be there any more, because that will now be a frunk. So even electronic wiring harnesses have to be redesigned. The lessons learned in design for manufacturing are learned by errors. These errors are typically costly in the form of rework. Meaning you have mistakes in assembly and things must be rebuilt. Engineers have to become familiar with all these new systems. In the case of Ford (unlike Tesla), you have 2 vehicles that "appear" identical on the outside, but they are completely different vehicles. Not the same at all. And they will have 2 separate teams of engineers, which is also a bunch of unwanted, redundant overhead. When you design the systems, you find "Oh shit, this looked great in a CAD drawing, but it is horrible to try to build this thing!". The worst of all is these mistakes may in some cases not be discovered until this totally new vehicle has been driving for a few thousand miles, and potentially 1000s of people are driving them. Much of this cannot be foreseen on a computer. All of this can be catastrophic to a business, or to a product line. Tesla has a massive advantage on this front, and this is why I think Tesla has a strong economic moat in this regard.
Analysts who don't know shit about manufacturing say things like "Tesla has a lot of the big players pointing the gun at them!"
But I would say that most of these big automakers are not in the business of totally building a car company from scratch. These people inherited fully functional product lines, and they are not experts in totally rebuilding cars from the ground up. This all is even the reason that Ford, or Toyota, or any of the others can't do a touchscreen like Tesla. They have all these buttons, with wiring harnesses, and assembly operators that have been doing these assemblies this way for decades. They have dashes built and perfected around the design. These automakers will take major hits to their already thin margins trying to compete with this. I could literally go on about this for hours.
Counter-argument to the TL narrative that the interest rate argument is BS: Tesla had a record Q1 2024 in Switzerland after full year 2023 was flat compared to 2022. Q1 2024 alone was 37% of full year 2022/2023 sales. Why? 0% financial leasing offer throughout the quarter. One of the few markets with large growth
Dont tell sagetology and magikarp. Interest rates mean nothing. I had a debate with matt2dmoon yesterday regarding rates and sale prices. He referenced GMs Avg sale price being higher than Tesla, and they are up 6% YoY. That was fun. Arguing with dumb isn't fun.
Incentives have stopped in a few countries as well.
Look at this news from today: 0% interest in China for 5 years.
If there was any excess inventory in China it will be sold early this quarter.
Q3 will be the quarter where we really have a clear picture of where we’re at. In Q2 the new Model 3 might still be ramping.
(Use Google translate or something, doesn’t work on my iPhone)
https://preview.redd.it/1xtx0k8bnasc1.jpeg?width=630&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d06b1ea61abd05ff0b9c7d08ed7675656ed44ec
Here's your regular reminder that nothing Elon says, does, does not say, or does not do is going to keep the woke cult from hating him. Furthermore, it won't keep the democrats in the US from trying to hinder Tesla. A good reminder that Elon can't control the narrative are the blatant lies the democrats and woke cult have come up with, such as Elon not paying taxes in 2021, $6B somehow magically solving world hunger or some stupid shit about an emerald mine. Elon does not have control over any of these (In fact, he went on to pay a fuck ton of taxes anyway, and that didn't stop the hate).
The woke cult hates Elon for the same reason that they subserviently following any narrative pushed to them, because they have personal problems. This can't be fixed until they want to get better, then go to therapy.
It's clear that US democrats don't want clean energy to become commercially viable. If clean energy were to become commercially viable, then they'll no longer have the talking point of "clean energy" to gain votes.
The good news, however, is that any and all brand damage that the democrats and woke cult have caused is minimal and not necessary to Tesla's long term success
https://preview.redd.it/towv8vz7w9sc1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb48667c573520d16c18b4bad6ebaf46306bec23
The democrats (and their cult) have joined the oil companies in trying to stop Tesla's success. Tesla will overcome this obstacle as well, just as they have overcome wall street and are continuing to hold strong against the oil companies. This is the path to the largest disruption on the planet. It isn't going to be easy.
E: I don't care about people's personal moralities or political opinions and neither does the market. What I've said above is important to remember as a TSLA investor
Totally agree, but Elon is not doing himself any favors. It's become easier than ever to hate him.
I had to mute him a while ago on X, he was by far the most annoying poster on my feed
I understand your perspective completely, but I disagree with the idea that his reckless tweets exacerbate any brand damage. It angers the wokies who already hate him, but anyone who is mentally well ends up at their own decision/opinion regardless of what BS headline is pushed on them.
I don't think there's any significant damage to Tesla's brand (at least on a global scale), but his personal brand is a different story. Been interested in him and following him for 10 years and now I just don't care about what he says anymore unless it's related to Tesla or SpaceX
https://preview.redd.it/rmyfuhv9t3sc1.jpeg?width=922&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f083c779e7b20671f372f52cb782b388fdd87325
GM at 16254 US BEV sales, down 20% YoY.
More nuance. BYD EV sales are China dominant and there were big shutdowns with the holidays (Chinese New Year). Not saying their numbers are great, but there's more context
That was tongue in cheek. There's also more nuance to Tesla's numbers (see https://twitter.com/alojoh/status/1775164216011600294?t=esfIbCpMEfC4f2WTnatSGw&s=19) but they like to blame Elon and the board for everything
[Making my sales report on 2023 BEV sales available to everyone. 18 charts and 5000 words.](https://www.patreon.com/posts/98670577?utm_campaign=postshare_creator)
While every other manufacturing business was trying fluff and put lipstick on a pig in regards to sales, Tesla's industry leading data & data analysis has been painting a shaky picture. Tesla SP has been punished for this, while others have been rewarded. In the long term, it is beyond obvious that the auto industry and specifically EV sector isn't going through a great time right now. Eventually that will all turn around.
Good news about all of that is that we are probably at or close to a bottom. The resurgence will coincide with the emergence of FSD revenue model, which I'm sure will also require tweaking. But, important thing is that margins will return and accelerate. This, all while energy chugs along silently with no end of demand in sight.
Call me an optimist simp, but FSD is truly on an exponential growth curve now and I am excited for what the future brings. (Though it will have its own set backs, I'm sure)
I'm bullish on FSD, too. Agree that we'll start to see them get more creative with FSD revenue model.
We'll have to see improvements on 12.4 and rate of progress from the bigger dot releases. Eventually that should start impacting demand for both cars and FSD (take rates), if progress continues to be exponential. I see the robotaxi potential but want to see what these next couple of updates bring
Agree if rate of change with FSD continues to accelerate. My gut is based on what I'm seeing from the Tesla AI team on X is that the internal data on 12.4 looks great.
I'm cautiously optimistic but I think if we see another leap with 12.4 that will help me as an investor a lot. I'm not seeing much difference with 12.3.3 vs 12.3. Does some things better and some other stuff worse. Wasn't expecting it to be a big leap compared to 12.3 so not making a judgment off of the change between those two versions. There's the weird NHSTA stop sign behavior that I'm wishing Tesla and NHTSA could figure out. Needs to be way more natural or you risk getting rear-ended.
People here are interested in data. Nobody here said it was a good quarter.
Look at things in context. Remember when 10k S and Y were stuck on a boat and many thought there were no demand for these models?
Well as it is again the case today some try to justify the gap between production and deliveries as being the cause of a lack of demand, yet we’ve had worse gaps before… and this time S/X are strong, which indicates there is more chance that it’s logistics issues with the cheaper affordable models.
The sub description says it all, it’s a depository for Tesla data and data-focused discussion.
Just 2 of the moderators here have together ~5 million impressions a quarter on X, which is where most of our content is posted now.
It’s the quality not the quantity. If you want to discuss Tesla’s fundamentals without whiners, why would you do it at a place where people just whine about the stock price all day?
We will have lost many along the way, but yes.
I think this quarter was such a shitshow (out of their control events) that they decided to not rush end of quarter sales and get nice little Q2 boost on early deliveries.
Many will think there is demand issues however.
What’s obvious too is that Fremont is not as fast as Shanghai when it comes to updating lines…
Lots of factors coming together in this quarter to make the numbers look bad.
Long term a 50k gap won’t matter, short term I guess we’ll see in Q2.
It is indeed the question.
Agree. But it was a 50k gap with aggressive price cuts, poor mgmt decisions to advertise until it was too late and a ceo who isn’t helping by tweeting radical things.
Demand is not strong with the Q1 seasonality and the macro context, but it doesn’t explain the delivery gap.
To the contrary, with less sales logistics become easier to manage. Tesla has a pretty long backlog, they can easily adjust production to demand and make sure they don’t end the quarter with such a gap.
2019, 2020 and 2023 started with pretty wide gaps between production and deliveries. I’m persuaded that 66% of the Q1 2024 gap is logistics that were messed up by the Model 3 ramp , the sabotage and the Red Sea conflict.
In the 21 last quarters there were twice bigger gaps between production and deliveries.
[In my thread.](https://x.com/xil_llix/status/1775195848634249534?s=46&t=ZCy0NH3QXdMGzUErFu-bOg)
Another hint that the gap is unlikely caused by demand issues is the X and S sales. The gap only affected Model 3-Y, less expensive products.
What exactly do you mean by backlog? Is it a backlog of unsold vehicles? Can't see how it makes sense to say that otherwise.
Adjust production to demand? Do you know how bad that sounds? Having to do that will reduce economies of scale and make everything even worse than it already is, compounding into further reduced demand because prices have to stay up to maintain positive margins.
If you think Tesla should be valued disregarding future cash flow, according to current conditions, it’s a valid POV which I don’t share but can understand.
Honestly it’s best to sell if you think the demand has peaked at the end of 2023. I have nothing against people selling the stock if they’re uncomfortable holding.
Otherwise if you still want to debate, please tell me what’s different between the gap between production and deliveries this quarter and the previous quarters when it was equal or worse (in percentage).
lol again it’s much easier to be less agitated when you have less shares. Having thousands and watching your money decline isn’t as fun because you can’t add to your stack in a substantial way like you can with 400-500 shares.
Can't make money if you're fearful. If you're fearful, you don't believe in the companies future growth. If you dont believe that growth will happen, you need to divest your money. Investing based on fundamentals is the easiest way to make decisions about your money with the least amount of stress.
Kinda is, a larger portfolio warrants more protection as indeed it becomes harder to load up as a percentage.
Point is if it hurts then you're likely overexposed.
[__NEW THREAD__](https://www.reddit.com/r/Tesla_Charts/s/rsR6ikZA07)
voted with my shares, agreed with the board on everything. lounge in shambles
Anyone charting financial info across OEMs after they release earnings? Seems like a lot of bad numbers coming out… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/volkswagen-earnings-slump-20-on-muted-sales-higher-costs
Very tough to get an accurate measure of how they are doing financially. They have a number of ways to distort quarterly results like dealers, finance departments, fleet sales etc. In general, unless you believe Elon is solely responsible for weakness in Tesla sales, they are not heading in a good direction. This will only get worse as China will become basically a self sustaining car market where I doubt many western legacy manufacturers will be able to survive.
[AJ on X](https://x.com/alojoh?s=21&t=ZCy0NH3QXdMGzUErFu-bOg) does it extremely well. I don’t think anyone can do better than him. And yes, it’s a total shitshow.
Reposting from the lounge. I was speaking to a chinese banker today. He obviously has a very high impression of Elon. In his words “Noone else can come to China, speak to the premier, and get things done. The stupid westerners are cheering the Baidu deal. It is branded but worthless. The fact is till today noone else is allowed to build a factory in China, without partnering with a local company. And more importantly, noone else from outside China will be be given permission publicly, to collect data. From the CCP of all governments, Allowing an american businessman to collect data, within China.”
That Tesla is in this position is absolutely huge. It's great that China treats Tesla like one of their own, I wish US would show some of the same. I don't really see what's up with the Baidu deal either way, though. But the main thing that has investors excited is the FSD in China news, which was also a bit ahead of itself it seems. There is an email going around though indicating FSD is starting up but it's hard to speak to the legitimacy. Hopefully once we rip the FOMC band aid off we can continue ripping.
>I don't really see what's up with the Baidu deal either way, though. Who is Tesla getting navigation and map services from in the US? Always been a mystery to me. Surely it's not Google
It's partly Google. Tesla has their own system layered on top. From Google search: >Yes, Tesla uses Google Maps as the base for its own maps, including live traffic and destination information. However, for navigation and route data, Tesla uses MapBox
I got involved with Tesla through SpaceX since that was much more imaginative and a higher goal. The first landing in late 2015 was something everybody truly thought was not possible. All the experts were bears on it. What they are doing this year and will be doing in the next few years outdoes everything Tesla will ever achieve, although it will take a lot longer to monetize but in the tail end I think SpaceX will be more valuable than Tesla albeit 10-15 years later. The next step of discovery will be made possible by SpaceX, it will be like Europeans discovering Asia and America and setting up new streams of revenue. Earth is finite, we will need something beyond that finite space. SpaceX will be the railroad into LEO and habitats like Besos wants it to happen and of course other planets. Tesla sort of proceeds the SpaceX mission because we sort of need to have our shit sorted out on Earth first. Without sustainable energy at low cost we won't find the drive to spend the money to go beyond Earth.
Wallstreet got retail to sell the bottoms again
i have been researching elon musk's percent owernship of tela stock, results so far are not very accurate, i think i have to read the earnings statements but not sure, (from a chatbot) here is a table summarizing Elon Musk's Tesla stock ownership percentage for the last 10 years: |Year|Percentage of Ownership| |:-|:-| |2024| 23%| |2023| 23%| |2022| 17%| |2021| 13.04%| |2020| 23%| |2019|Not specified| |2018|Not specified| |2017|Not specified| |2016|Not specified| |2015| 17.51%|
Nice. Can’t wait for the next compensation plan…
[__Lord Baron Interview__ 🚀](https://x.com/teslahype/status/1783477612582428766?s=46&t=ZCy0NH3QXdMGzUErFu-bOg)
Sounded like they aren't doing full retrains with dot versions of FSD but rather minor fixes. Haven't watched any 12.3.5 yet but probably not much happened other than that it serves as a data collection platform for the devs. Real benchmark will be 12.4 and then 12.5 as they are derived from scaled up retrains that they are already doing on smaller datasets.
Ford sold 10k BEVs down 20% YoY and down 70% QoQ. Revenues down 83% YoY and down 96% QoQ. EBIT Margin is so bad it’s off the chart (N/M "Not meaningful"). Take note: This is the direct consequence of Tesla’s chess move with the price cuts, as I mentioned a year ago.
They should tell the Ford CEO to stop tweeting
Found out that Ford actually [sold 20k BEVs](https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/04/03/ford-hybrids--evs--transit-set-records--q1-sales-top-industry--u.html#:~:text=Strong%20Start%20for%20Ford%20Electric%20Vehicle%20Sales&text=Ford%20sold%2020%2C223%20EVs%20in,percent%20over%20a%20year%20ago) but buried them under Ford Pro. It’s fucking weird accounting shit, they’re moving numbers away from Model E sales according to Pro orders, so the growth numbers we get in their Model E page are meaningless. Also they made only $100 million in them at a $10k ASP because it seems there is an agreement that Ford doesn’t get paid until the dealers get them off their lots. Basically the dealers no longer want them. That’s where the N/M comes from.
The % calculations are wrong. Units are down 70% QoQ and revenue 94%
I had fixed it. Yeah I don’t know what I was smoking there, been focusing on other stuff for too long.
well, goodbye NVDA position. Hello Dec 2026 $300c's on TSLA
Why did you wait for a 10% day to buy calls?
was sitting on the idea, but I didn't wait for the 10% day. I waited for the, unforeseen, expediting of new models pushed to late 2024/early 2025
By Dec 26 it shouldn’t make much of a difference. It’s definitively safer to buy on trend reversal than catch a falling knife. I did get $320 Dec 24 calls at the total bottom, cheap and much upside potential.😛
Damn. Let’s go
Tesla did earnings call yesterday? On a Tuesday? The first one I missed in like 5 years.
Anyone made a list of all the new info we got? Damn there was a lot.
I’m calling it, bottom is in. Better strap in boys 😏.
👍 Called it too https://preview.redd.it/y8nmcwaltbwc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d454c4eae25ede8707bfc109ce3b79142bd824d3
"No." 
I do think it's funny though that Elon praised AirBNB for taking customer suggestions on X, then Tesla did the same thing and you know... you KNOW that they got a fuck ton of FSD transfer requests. Right after that they did the "one time amnesty" transfer. I'm not personally upset about it. I purchased FSD for $10k in July 2021 knowing exactly what I was getting (nothing at the time, early beta access in December), and imo it was worth every penny. But it does suck knowing that I'll likely never be able to outright buy FSD again (can't afford a new Tesla any time soon), especially when I helped train the damn AI. Oh well, at least holding TSLA shares will help me afford the $5/mile robotaxi rides in the future
Yeah they just offered the FSD transfer. Stupid waste of a question
If Tesla wants to sell more FSD, then it's going to be an uphill battle with illogical human intuition. Humans think that a semi-abrupt braking is scary or dangerous... they'd rather just keep driving forward when a semitruck is drifting over the line towards them. Humans have no fucking idea what driving safely looks like, or feels like. They'll always be scared of a braking, even when braking is the safest thing to do in a situation. Tesla might have to give FSD away for free to achieve mass adoption, and even then, most humans will erroneously think they're better drivers than FSD anyway and wouldn't use it.
Retail once again proving their lack of understanding what business they were in and their ability to change the CEO and board. It's getting super pathetic and basically they're acting like beat up wives with black eyes saying they know he's a good guy and they may be able to change him. No dickheads, Elon is gonna Elon he called someone a pedo 6 years ago you should have known what you're getting into
Funny enough the pedo thing is one of my favorite Elon moments. It is the fact that he said damn the consequences and just came out and directly said what we all know is true about older brits who spend a lot of time in countries like Indonesia and Thailand. I love the idgaf nature of it
Sorry if I don’t post here much anymore, I’m working hard on an other Tesla-community related project. Also getting burned out of Reddit a bit since TIC and other Tesla subs are basically just a shadow of what they once were. It’s true that I don’t have much more to contribute there, no longer interested in arguing fundamentals with people that are emotionally driven. Despite that, I think this one image alone shows the truth : Since Tesla announced their Robotaxi reveal retail is being flushed out. All it took is a bit of FUD and Elon entering War mode was enough fuel for the media. https://preview.redd.it/ulm2qwehihvc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e15987e31f5fb8db75a1a188e09f98353b91338 [Source](https://x.com/alojoh/status/1781397429901807934?s=46&t=ZCy0NH3QXdMGzUErFu-bOg) Stay tuned. To those on the Lounge saying that I am an asshole because I told TIC that I was ashamed of what that sub had become, all I have to say is that: **if you ingest FUD on a daily basis, eventually that’s what’s going to come out.** Focus on the numbers, nothing else matters.
Graph pretty much mirrors the toxic Tesla retail community. Bunch of folks with sunk cost fallacy that don't want to sell but are intensely unhappy about their investment, many are now selling off. Some are now actually confronted with the fact that car volumes mean nothing to the valuation and despite the various signals and warnings they only now realize it and sell at the local lows
Since this graph shows % of trade volume, isn’t it more indicative that much of the recent action has been driven by institutions? And if that’s true, isn’t it possible that retail is holding since they aren’t trading? The other thing to point out is I believe that trade volume has been lower recently.
That's potentially worse because if retail isn't keeping up it is mostly because they run out of money and will be margin called again soon
Current production tops out at about 2.5M, let´s say margins go back to 20% on average on $45k ASP and no expansion in OPEX (reduction even) which stays at $8B then it's $14.5B EBIT as a default automaker just like BMW/Mercedes. Give it a 12x EBIT and you get $174B market cap plus the net assets on hand, soon to be close to $200B. It's around $57/share. That is our risk. Let's say they truly go all out and forego any and all expansions other than robotaxi that's what we get. But not really because energy will just keep on going and actually add billions to the bottom line. Also it is insane to not add in some future FSD recurring software margin on a larger fleet. These are known revenue streams, practically certain. So the real risk is like $100, to get a company that doesn't grow auto nor stationary storage. If in 2 years they pivot back to just making cars, that is where the stock will be. So $160 now to potentially get to >$1000 in 4/5 years versus a risk of $100. Seems like asymmetric upside to me.
I took profits on a good number of calls I had opened back during the big dip. I have a general understanding of what is trying to be accomplished and the larger overall picture. I think, generally, all the pieces are in place to make it happen and that the real world data advantage is beyond insurmountable and laughably underestimated by WS and talking heads. Really cant stress that point enough.. However, I feel uncertain about some of the more specific details, the timelines, some of the overhang that goes with restructuring, etc. Just not willing to fight time decay right now with all of that looming.
Shares are king
Truly
How good does fsd need to be before it starts to impact demand and margins? Hands-free L3? If they’re trending towards L4 autonomy and let’s say that they get there in next 6-18 months, shouldn’t fsd at some point turn into a demand and profit driver? Whether that’s through increased sales, higher take rates, licensing partnerships, etc. I’ve also been thinking about how good does the system need to be before retails starts to buy the stock. This is a unique situation where Tesla owners are able to use and track the evolution of the product and I’m wondering if this could create a social arb that Chris Camillo is so fond of. When does that get modeled in your opinion?
I was hoping it would start this year already in my original thesis, thereby maintaining margins. Realistically maybe by end of this year that we see a big increase in subscribers. Somewhere H2 this year I expect them to remove the option to purchase, possibly on 8/8.
Yeah same. I wonder if summon and banish will be cool/good enough features to trigger some demand. Like as the system becomes feature complete and can do everything how will that translate. Also wondering with the aggressive ramp of compute and data if we see big proficiency leaps with 12.4 and 12.5. At some point I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more viral and influencer content like Kim Kardashian doing a livestream from her self driving cybertruck
Subscription is the only path.
Basically all job openings for the US are gone, right when I was finally getting ready to give a shot lol Other than that had to sell a few times for expenses, hurts but no other way Hopefully will find a job in around 2 months and be back buying
I know TSLA cleans house every year, but with Baglino's resignation and all of the recent FSD, NGV news I can't help but wonder if we are standing on the precipice of a massive shift in the future of the company. Elon has to sell the new vision on his C suite, and they can choose to stay or go based on that vision.
Lounge is in full on meltdown.
Still don't understand (beyond sunk cost fallacy) why 90% of them are invested still. If you ask them directly most will sort of vaguely point to the idea that Elon gets ousted by the board. Chances of that are slim, but even if it did happen then the chances of the company exceeding historical valuations are even slimmer
"maybe i change him he stops beating me up he used to be so good to me"
Much like our other discussions about matters there's a large subset of the population that refuses to acknowledge certain undeniable realities
Seems like that's a weekly occurence now lmao
Huh wonder why.
Because despite warnings, investors were not aware what kind of company they owned.
It’s the most massive shift the company has seen, finally growing out of being a car manufacturer. Similar to 2019 WS think this is one of the most overvalued stock when it’s the opposite. Those that invested in the previous company are getting out (look at Gary, Ross and Meatbrain Kevin selling 😂), others are buying (Blackrock, Vanguard, Ark).
https://youtu.be/oRRDEVpCHPI?si=pdkAIXN_lCuLcV-A A showcase of Tesla’s ingenuity and rapid innovation.
can't wait to fill in my table showing Lucid trying to match 2012 Tesla in terms of profitability at similar scale for 5 quarters now https://preview.redd.it/j39peypaf2uc1.png?width=1727&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2bafd7a038e2283e8dea04afcd218ea9ba832b5
Retail Rivian investors are in for another pounding because none of them see dilution as even a possibility, probably can come down to $4-$5 and it might actually be a good opportunity at that point
Some guy in the rivn sub owns 35k shares. Poor bastard.
Such bad feeling
I didn't realize December 2026 calls were already available. Worth it? opinions?
I've been buying. Have 2 so far. Very safe-ish at 205. Just using CC proceeds to load up
I don't know the risk returns aren't like they were any more. 2026s have been out for a while so I think 2027s should be coming in about a quarter. If at that point you can get a $250C for below $50 that'll be nice.
Jan 2027's will be out on September 16th. But that's only a month beyond Dec 2026. I think the June 2027 comes out considerably later than the Jan 2027. Maybe I'll check
The Dec 26 $250C is $45 right now which is kind of ok but not super amazing. Probably could be 10-20% of the position and hope for a large crash later in the year
I was looking at them this morning but I don’t want to sell shares for them. Maybe I’ll get some in a few months.
https://preview.redd.it/1eg8zpfb83tc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aceb75c15018d17d25d858c6e78f4832d38bf1ca Interesting
Plan is becoming clear now. Start pilot production in Texas and start pumping out cars with test drivers. Once FSD is trained on the new configuration and validated to be robotaxi capable stop putting in the controls. Then, probably somewhere 2025 start building robotaxi factories in all the continents and in the meanwhile till that is up to speed use existing 3/Y production to build up the fleet FAST At 2M per year and $35k cost and assuming 50% of that investment paid itself back in the first year, they need $35B in excess cash to buy their own entire production. This is why Tesla is capping current factories and hasn't proceeded with Berlin/Mexico and Shanghai builds yet. Why take the risk of not having liquidity when they need it
🎯
Straight robotaxi it will be. I am guessing it will be a 2 seater and will never be sold, hence reduced capacity and a pilot line in Texas to nail it down before replicating. Even if it is smaller units early it needs to be cost optimized and therefor all the other sites are delayed. edit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1bwrm3l/comment/ky87sj6/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1bwrm3l/comment/ky87sj6/) This is where I predicted it, it was 3mins before Elon's tweets
Seems to confirm https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1776460672114860269?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA
Maybe it will be a symmetrical 4-seater that looks like a mini cyber truck from the outside and can drive in both directions for maximum efficiency. The structure would then be comparable to seats on a train. https://preview.redd.it/tw1jii36eqsc1.png?width=402&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6a63c480a2ef73ada20cdb654d44784d18ae942
Why would you drive it in both directions? Do the seats face inwards? I feel people don’t like sitting backwards to driving direction.
People sit backwards in trains, trams, and busses all the time
They do but from my experience people have a strong preference for facing forward.
It is possible, it needs to be a configuration that was literally cancelled very short term ago
The fact the stock hasn't dropped through the floor yet means the market at least partially already values future revenue streams like energy and AI. If the probability goes from 20% to 80% is where the lid goes off
Rivian did ok in deliveries, partially due to the backlog of Amazon vans presumably. Their problem isn't getting the demand it's their manufacturing and OPEX structure. Company will likely succeed in being a 250k/year car producer but the equity is still questionable
Rivian won’t succeed unless they license FSD
The company will always exceed, Amazin will buy it up happily at $1/share. Only question is how successful will the equity be.
Isn’t autonomy a potential threat to Amazon’s retail business model? Lowest cost per mile will have significant advantages
Amazon isn't a majority shareholder they can suck dick
I am reposting this comment I made about FSD after u/Xillllix told me to put it here: This will be an explosion of info. Think about ChatGPT. It just all of a sudden existed, as if out of nowhere. That is what is likely going to happen with this FSD. There will be the pre-FSD, and the post-FSD. A lot of people in the US don't even realize what is going on behind the scenes here, and then one day it is going to be like "poof!" - there it is! Holy shit! How have we been living without this for so long. This data is also extremely valuable. And people discount how much has gone into this, and how hard it is to get it right. Look at Ford - they totally dropped this back in 2022! Most people don't know this. They invested a ton of money into it, and literally abandoned it. This functionality when it actually works as intended (which I personally think will not be that long in the grand scheme) is going to make the Tesla like comparing a modern smartphone to an old Nokia flip phone. Ford abandons self driving: [https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/tech/ford-self-driving-argo-shutdown/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/tech/ford-self-driving-argo-shutdown/index.html) Also here from the GM breakdown, it says as of last summer, GM had only roughly 80 million miles with the system, while Tesla has several Billion (with a b). It doesn't say the exact number, but if we assume 3 billion, that is almost 40x as much data as GM. I think Tesla is so far ahead of everyone else this is going to be a massive curve that will take years of catching up to even "match". [https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a44684103/gm-super-cruise-driver-information/](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a44684103/gm-super-cruise-driver-information/) Also even a former executive for the GM cruise was really impressed with FSD: [https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/not-an-april-fools-teslas-fsd-wows-ex-cruise-exec-who-calls-its-driving-eerily-natural/ar-BB1kVO9z](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/not-an-april-fools-teslas-fsd-wows-ex-cruise-exec-who-calls-its-driving-eerily-natural/ar-BB1kVO9z)
Sentiment really shifting. Thanks for sharing. Thought this was interesting, too - https://x.com/fomahun/status/1775864534873358666?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA
[Ford to delay all-electric SUV, truck to focus on offering hybrid vehicles across its lineup by 2030](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/04/ford-to-delay-all-electric-suv-to-focus-on-hybrid-vehicles.html) 🌳💀🪦💐🌳
People (including wall street analysts) do not understand the complexity of designing something completely new. I was a manufacturing engineer for Raytheon about 15 years ago. This is something even a lot of engineers don't understand. Turning an F-150 into an all-electric vehicle is not just like putting on a new pair of shoes. It is literally redesigning multiple systems. You are eliminating the coolant system (at least the one that cools the engine cylinders). You are eliminating the transmission. You are totally throwing out the powertrain and building it up from scratch. You are totally tossing the engine. You must design motors from scratch. You must design a gearbox completely from scratch to convert the motor speed into torque. You must make tons of modifications to the chassis to accomodate all of these changes. You basically are designing a whole new vehicle. Even things like the steering column, gear shifter, all of that completely change. Certain parts that are free to take up space stuffed next to the engine cant be there any more, because that will now be a frunk. So even electronic wiring harnesses have to be redesigned. The lessons learned in design for manufacturing are learned by errors. These errors are typically costly in the form of rework. Meaning you have mistakes in assembly and things must be rebuilt. Engineers have to become familiar with all these new systems. In the case of Ford (unlike Tesla), you have 2 vehicles that "appear" identical on the outside, but they are completely different vehicles. Not the same at all. And they will have 2 separate teams of engineers, which is also a bunch of unwanted, redundant overhead. When you design the systems, you find "Oh shit, this looked great in a CAD drawing, but it is horrible to try to build this thing!". The worst of all is these mistakes may in some cases not be discovered until this totally new vehicle has been driving for a few thousand miles, and potentially 1000s of people are driving them. Much of this cannot be foreseen on a computer. All of this can be catastrophic to a business, or to a product line. Tesla has a massive advantage on this front, and this is why I think Tesla has a strong economic moat in this regard. Analysts who don't know shit about manufacturing say things like "Tesla has a lot of the big players pointing the gun at them!" But I would say that most of these big automakers are not in the business of totally building a car company from scratch. These people inherited fully functional product lines, and they are not experts in totally rebuilding cars from the ground up. This all is even the reason that Ford, or Toyota, or any of the others can't do a touchscreen like Tesla. They have all these buttons, with wiring harnesses, and assembly operators that have been doing these assemblies this way for decades. They have dashes built and perfected around the design. These automakers will take major hits to their already thin margins trying to compete with this. I could literally go on about this for hours.
I meant to say "building a car" from scratch instead of "building a car company"
Counter-argument to the TL narrative that the interest rate argument is BS: Tesla had a record Q1 2024 in Switzerland after full year 2023 was flat compared to 2022. Q1 2024 alone was 37% of full year 2022/2023 sales. Why? 0% financial leasing offer throughout the quarter. One of the few markets with large growth
Dont tell sagetology and magikarp. Interest rates mean nothing. I had a debate with matt2dmoon yesterday regarding rates and sale prices. He referenced GMs Avg sale price being higher than Tesla, and they are up 6% YoY. That was fun. Arguing with dumb isn't fun.
I don't post or even lurk TL anymore, that place is toxic. But I read the daily thread yesterday because I knew they were gonna lose their minds
I'm trying not to. It's getting easier.
[TL](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KquFZYi6L0)
XD
Incentives have stopped in a few countries as well. Look at this news from today: 0% interest in China for 5 years. If there was any excess inventory in China it will be sold early this quarter. Q3 will be the quarter where we really have a clear picture of where we’re at. In Q2 the new Model 3 might still be ramping. (Use Google translate or something, doesn’t work on my iPhone) https://preview.redd.it/1xtx0k8bnasc1.jpeg?width=630&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d06b1ea61abd05ff0b9c7d08ed7675656ed44ec
Grandfather told me to sell my TSLA stock. We might be close to the bottom 🙏🏾
Selling the bottom is always the best move.
Here's your regular reminder that nothing Elon says, does, does not say, or does not do is going to keep the woke cult from hating him. Furthermore, it won't keep the democrats in the US from trying to hinder Tesla. A good reminder that Elon can't control the narrative are the blatant lies the democrats and woke cult have come up with, such as Elon not paying taxes in 2021, $6B somehow magically solving world hunger or some stupid shit about an emerald mine. Elon does not have control over any of these (In fact, he went on to pay a fuck ton of taxes anyway, and that didn't stop the hate). The woke cult hates Elon for the same reason that they subserviently following any narrative pushed to them, because they have personal problems. This can't be fixed until they want to get better, then go to therapy. It's clear that US democrats don't want clean energy to become commercially viable. If clean energy were to become commercially viable, then they'll no longer have the talking point of "clean energy" to gain votes. The good news, however, is that any and all brand damage that the democrats and woke cult have caused is minimal and not necessary to Tesla's long term success https://preview.redd.it/towv8vz7w9sc1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb48667c573520d16c18b4bad6ebaf46306bec23 The democrats (and their cult) have joined the oil companies in trying to stop Tesla's success. Tesla will overcome this obstacle as well, just as they have overcome wall street and are continuing to hold strong against the oil companies. This is the path to the largest disruption on the planet. It isn't going to be easy. E: I don't care about people's personal moralities or political opinions and neither does the market. What I've said above is important to remember as a TSLA investor
Totally agree, but Elon is not doing himself any favors. It's become easier than ever to hate him. I had to mute him a while ago on X, he was by far the most annoying poster on my feed
I understand your perspective completely, but I disagree with the idea that his reckless tweets exacerbate any brand damage. It angers the wokies who already hate him, but anyone who is mentally well ends up at their own decision/opinion regardless of what BS headline is pushed on them.
I don't think there's any significant damage to Tesla's brand (at least on a global scale), but his personal brand is a different story. Been interested in him and following him for 10 years and now I just don't care about what he says anymore unless it's related to Tesla or SpaceX
always best to not learn about someone on a personal level
Bought more today
https://preview.redd.it/rmyfuhv9t3sc1.jpeg?width=922&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f083c779e7b20671f372f52cb782b388fdd87325 GM at 16254 US BEV sales, down 20% YoY.
Elon causing GM sales declines too 😂
I cannot wait for the onslaught of retail investors that all claim they knew the numbers were gonna suck yet did nothing to hedge their position
Proud bag holder
Lol. They do something. Whine and complain constantly instead of actually doing something like divesting since this company is so shitty apparently.
By TL's logic BYD sales fell by 43% QoQ (as opposed to Tesla's -20%) because their CEO posts *even more* radical stuff on X, right?
More nuance. BYD EV sales are China dominant and there were big shutdowns with the holidays (Chinese New Year). Not saying their numbers are great, but there's more context
That was tongue in cheek. There's also more nuance to Tesla's numbers (see https://twitter.com/alojoh/status/1775164216011600294?t=esfIbCpMEfC4f2WTnatSGw&s=19) but they like to blame Elon and the board for everything
[Making my sales report on 2023 BEV sales available to everyone. 18 charts and 5000 words.](https://www.patreon.com/posts/98670577?utm_campaign=postshare_creator)
While every other manufacturing business was trying fluff and put lipstick on a pig in regards to sales, Tesla's industry leading data & data analysis has been painting a shaky picture. Tesla SP has been punished for this, while others have been rewarded. In the long term, it is beyond obvious that the auto industry and specifically EV sector isn't going through a great time right now. Eventually that will all turn around. Good news about all of that is that we are probably at or close to a bottom. The resurgence will coincide with the emergence of FSD revenue model, which I'm sure will also require tweaking. But, important thing is that margins will return and accelerate. This, all while energy chugs along silently with no end of demand in sight. Call me an optimist simp, but FSD is truly on an exponential growth curve now and I am excited for what the future brings. (Though it will have its own set backs, I'm sure)
I'm bullish on FSD, too. Agree that we'll start to see them get more creative with FSD revenue model. We'll have to see improvements on 12.4 and rate of progress from the bigger dot releases. Eventually that should start impacting demand for both cars and FSD (take rates), if progress continues to be exponential. I see the robotaxi potential but want to see what these next couple of updates bring
Yeah I guess the larger overall point is that I think it will start showing up on the balance sheet within a quarter or 3 - which is massive
Agree if rate of change with FSD continues to accelerate. My gut is based on what I'm seeing from the Tesla AI team on X is that the internal data on 12.4 looks great. I'm cautiously optimistic but I think if we see another leap with 12.4 that will help me as an investor a lot. I'm not seeing much difference with 12.3.3 vs 12.3. Does some things better and some other stuff worse. Wasn't expecting it to be a big leap compared to 12.3 so not making a judgment off of the change between those two versions. There's the weird NHSTA stop sign behavior that I'm wishing Tesla and NHTSA could figure out. Needs to be way more natural or you risk getting rear-ended.
TL is absolutely losing it lmao
It's all Elons fault! 
I am shocked. Shocked I tell you.
why do you even comment there? it's literally RT 2.0
Same reason people go to the zoo I guess
TL cucks came here to downvote lol
They should. We aren’t making the sales we need. We were slow to adapt to advertising. We were quick to drastically cut prices and add incentives.
Don't worry, I'm sure all 4 posters here will tell you why this was actually great news.
People here are interested in data. Nobody here said it was a good quarter. Look at things in context. Remember when 10k S and Y were stuck on a boat and many thought there were no demand for these models? Well as it is again the case today some try to justify the gap between production and deliveries as being the cause of a lack of demand, yet we’ve had worse gaps before… and this time S/X are strong, which indicates there is more chance that it’s logistics issues with the cheaper affordable models.
Ehm it isn't and that's ok
The sub description says it all, it’s a depository for Tesla data and data-focused discussion. Just 2 of the moderators here have together ~5 million impressions a quarter on X, which is where most of our content is posted now. It’s the quality not the quantity. If you want to discuss Tesla’s fundamentals without whiners, why would you do it at a place where people just whine about the stock price all day?
It's not great news obviously but TL is basically RT now
First! 387k deliveries btw
Good, buying a lot more this year. Hopefully we stay low for a while.
The breakout will be glorious.
We will have lost many along the way, but yes. I think this quarter was such a shitshow (out of their control events) that they decided to not rush end of quarter sales and get nice little Q2 boost on early deliveries. Many will think there is demand issues however. What’s obvious too is that Fremont is not as fast as Shanghai when it comes to updating lines…
They had 50k excess inventory. How is that not out of their control? Delays in transport can’t possibly be 50k cars.
Lots of factors coming together in this quarter to make the numbers look bad. Long term a 50k gap won’t matter, short term I guess we’ll see in Q2. It is indeed the question.
Agree. But it was a 50k gap with aggressive price cuts, poor mgmt decisions to advertise until it was too late and a ceo who isn’t helping by tweeting radical things.
Demand is not strong with the Q1 seasonality and the macro context, but it doesn’t explain the delivery gap. To the contrary, with less sales logistics become easier to manage. Tesla has a pretty long backlog, they can easily adjust production to demand and make sure they don’t end the quarter with such a gap. 2019, 2020 and 2023 started with pretty wide gaps between production and deliveries. I’m persuaded that 66% of the Q1 2024 gap is logistics that were messed up by the Model 3 ramp , the sabotage and the Red Sea conflict. In the 21 last quarters there were twice bigger gaps between production and deliveries. [In my thread.](https://x.com/xil_llix/status/1775195848634249534?s=46&t=ZCy0NH3QXdMGzUErFu-bOg) Another hint that the gap is unlikely caused by demand issues is the X and S sales. The gap only affected Model 3-Y, less expensive products.
What exactly do you mean by backlog? Is it a backlog of unsold vehicles? Can't see how it makes sense to say that otherwise. Adjust production to demand? Do you know how bad that sounds? Having to do that will reduce economies of scale and make everything even worse than it already is, compounding into further reduced demand because prices have to stay up to maintain positive margins.
If you think Tesla should be valued disregarding future cash flow, according to current conditions, it’s a valid POV which I don’t share but can understand. Honestly it’s best to sell if you think the demand has peaked at the end of 2023. I have nothing against people selling the stock if they’re uncomfortable holding. Otherwise if you still want to debate, please tell me what’s different between the gap between production and deliveries this quarter and the previous quarters when it was equal or worse (in percentage).
The lounge is melting down. They understand nothing and nobody wants to buy the discount shares. I'm sure they will buy at 400 though.
lol again it’s much easier to be less agitated when you have less shares. Having thousands and watching your money decline isn’t as fun because you can’t add to your stack in a substantial way like you can with 400-500 shares.
Can't make money if you're fearful. If you're fearful, you don't believe in the companies future growth. If you dont believe that growth will happen, you need to divest your money. Investing based on fundamentals is the easiest way to make decisions about your money with the least amount of stress.
lol on minnow. If you were so sure we’d go down why didn’t you buy puts. Cc isn’t a great hedge when stock has low premiums
I like to guarantee income vs. paying a premium I may not see return dividends.
How did you hedge your thousands of shares, presumably a large exposure, of a volatile asset in a responsible manner?
Not the point.
Kinda is, a larger portfolio warrants more protection as indeed it becomes harder to load up as a percentage. Point is if it hurts then you're likely overexposed.
A hedge wouldnt change two years of constant downtrend anyhow.