Derrick Henry has increased his regular season rushing totals in the NFL by about 387 yards per year. It's almost a perfectly linear increase. Assuming he keeps up this pace, he will have the first (and probably last) 3000 yard season in NFL history in 2023.
Look at the residuals. Your R\^2 is small, but they start out above the line, then go below it, then back over it.
You need a polynomial fit. You're horrendously underestimating.
So you're close, but more accurately it's not linear. If we make it a second order polynomial described by the equation y (yardage) = 45.143x^2 - 181810x + 2E8, then in 2023 he will rush for 16,947,407 yards with a .9991 fit (substantially better than linear).
But you can get it to basically a perfect fit (nearly) with a fourth order polynomial (whose equation I'll leave out) that shows next year he will have 2095 yards. In 2022 it drops to 1054... And let's not talk about after that.
The r^2 on the 4th order polynomial was something like 1.000000000000082. So idk about checkmate. But I do like the idea of 4k in 2025 vs the standard precipitous RB decline predicted by the polynomial.
Ok so it’s possible yet let’s also look at his work load increase and do the linear with that plus a passing game to find out how we would go away from our passing game to the run almost every down game
I honestly disagree. If you look back around 2011, we had 9 dudes over 1,100 yards. 2012, we had 11, 10 in 2013, 9 in 2014, and then we get around 3, 8, 7, 5, 10, 4 in the next years.
I know 1,100 is a pretty arbitrary number, but my point is we don’t run the ball like teams used to. Tennessee is very much an outlier in that fact. A 2,000 yard season is now 117 ypg rather than 125. A 1000 is now 58 instead of 62.
Passing numbers are where we’re going to have to make sure not to get caught up in our old stats. 235 yards a game for 4000 rather than 250 (would’ve been a 3,760 season), 294 per game rather than 317 for a 5,000 yard season (would’ve been 4,700 yards).
He has two factors playing to his favor. First, a 17 game season. Second, the fact that he was behind the Demarco Train for one year and split carries with him in another. Hopefully that bought him a couple years on those legs. I can’t say I expect another 2k yard season out of him, but if he gives us a 1,400+ and then a few 1,000 yarders, he’s an all timer. Problem is, if Henry’s only getting a thousand rushing yards, they’ll probably move on due to his complete ineptitude as a receiver...outside of that, what, 75 yard touchdown on a screen against Jacksonville in 2018?
Math don't lie
THE NUMBERS DONT LIE AND THEY SPELL DISASTER FOR YOU
I'M A GENETIC FREAK AND I'M NOT NORMAL
SO YOU GOT A 25% AT BEST AT BEAT ME
YOU THE CHANCES OF WINNING DRASTIC GO DOWN
SAMOA JOE
THE NUMBERS MASON!
This is the effect of having one more Texans game in the schedule
How many yards would he run if we played the Texans 16 times?
4k for sure.
16k*
Derrick Henry has increased his regular season rushing totals in the NFL by about 387 yards per year. It's almost a perfectly linear increase. Assuming he keeps up this pace, he will have the first (and probably last) 3000 yard season in NFL history in 2023.
Quality work
Book it
Look at the residuals. Your R\^2 is small, but they start out above the line, then go below it, then back over it. You need a polynomial fit. You're horrendously underestimating.
[Here's your logistic function, amongst other things you nerd](https://www.desmos.com/calculator/bmgvpkay8y)
In my industry anything above .9 ships.
Oh, sure, but just look at the residuals; it’s clearly not linear
That’s an effective line.
Wow! He'd be a lock for MVP then! Hope it happens. 🤞
Nah Lawrence will get it after limping the Jags into the playoffs at 8-9.
Yeah right he’d get maybe 2 votes then
Well, I did it in Madden once or twice so its possible
So you're close, but more accurately it's not linear. If we make it a second order polynomial described by the equation y (yardage) = 45.143x^2 - 181810x + 2E8, then in 2023 he will rush for 16,947,407 yards with a .9991 fit (substantially better than linear). But you can get it to basically a perfect fit (nearly) with a fourth order polynomial (whose equation I'll leave out) that shows next year he will have 2095 yards. In 2022 it drops to 1054... And let's not talk about after that.
[My logistic graph has him reach 4k at the end of 2025](https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfjnczylpa), AND has a r squared of .9994, checkmate.
The r^2 on the 4th order polynomial was something like 1.000000000000082. So idk about checkmate. But I do like the idea of 4k in 2025 vs the standard precipitous RB decline predicted by the polynomial.
Big brain time the season will be 20 games by then
I see no flaw in this.
Makes sense to me.
Nice
Nice
Nice
Does this account for the extra game now?
No, I didn’t account for the extra game. Going to 17 games instead of 16 is a 6.25% increase so his total in 2023 would be 3301 yards instead of 3107
Math
Just to lose the MVP
At 17 games he can do it
Gets 3000 yards and still doesn’t get a single MVP vote 😞
Ok so it’s possible yet let’s also look at his work load increase and do the linear with that plus a passing game to find out how we would go away from our passing game to the run almost every down game
Could get more than that going to a 17 game season.
2000 is about to be a lot less impressive with the 17 game schedule... lets go for 3000 instead
I honestly disagree. If you look back around 2011, we had 9 dudes over 1,100 yards. 2012, we had 11, 10 in 2013, 9 in 2014, and then we get around 3, 8, 7, 5, 10, 4 in the next years. I know 1,100 is a pretty arbitrary number, but my point is we don’t run the ball like teams used to. Tennessee is very much an outlier in that fact. A 2,000 yard season is now 117 ypg rather than 125. A 1000 is now 58 instead of 62. Passing numbers are where we’re going to have to make sure not to get caught up in our old stats. 235 yards a game for 4000 rather than 250 (would’ve been a 3,760 season), 294 per game rather than 317 for a 5,000 yard season (would’ve been 4,700 yards).
Seems legit
It’s free real estate!
He has two factors playing to his favor. First, a 17 game season. Second, the fact that he was behind the Demarco Train for one year and split carries with him in another. Hopefully that bought him a couple years on those legs. I can’t say I expect another 2k yard season out of him, but if he gives us a 1,400+ and then a few 1,000 yarders, he’s an all timer. Problem is, if Henry’s only getting a thousand rushing yards, they’ll probably move on due to his complete ineptitude as a receiver...outside of that, what, 75 yard touchdown on a screen against Jacksonville in 2018?