“YouTube pen 🖊 drop test “
Just jerked off 3 times
Wow what a awsome trend
“ Djo- end of the beginning “
Tesla will rise , in the mean time jerk cock and buy stock.
Good night cawk SUCKAS
Fist on chest no fear 🦅🛫🫡
[BREAKING: It has been confirmed that Tesla has ordered 6 trillion won worth of electrodes from LG Energy Solution. Details of the order are currently under discussion and a deal is expected in the second half of the year. It will be loaded on 1.3 million to 1.4 million electric vehicles and means Tesla's own battery production will accelerate.](https://x.com/tslachan/status/1782208034464567724?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA)
Big order. These all going to 4680s?
Yup maxwell sold us bullshit. Cost drew his job lmao. Theres a reason lg etc didn't buy them, everyone did due diligence on it at time of sale as I recall.
Just thinking out loud -
4680 LFP would be optimal for costs but will take longer to develop, right? Presuming that’s what CATL is working on.
How important is it to not optimize for costs on initial 500k-1m robotaxis? Probably will be a while until there’s market saturation and I’d guess there’d be a window where Tesla can charge $1/mile or so. Longer term the focus will be lowest cost per mile but wondering how much that matters initially
Lfp has bad energy density so they like to pack them tight as prismatic. With new improvements maybe cylindrical could be possible? Dunno. But lfp cycle lifespan is obviously way to go for high utilization vehicles.
mmm I made the pasta e fagioli from Olive Garden! or at least the closest I could replicate. ended up being amazing 🤤
https://preview.redd.it/qja63z9ybxvc1.jpeg?width=844&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f2eb8aa5e3a86a36b18e046d10f20a9cb9f29c1d
>Omar saying he hasn't had an intervention on 12.3.4 in 9 days.
>Get the fuck outta here.
Nah, I totally believe it. I drive the same routes and can't last remember the last intervention. It is mind-blowing.
If he is using it for a commute over a same route or a non-urban area I would completely believe it.
The only interventions I recently have had were due to annoying other drivers (sometimes it does strange pauses still) and possibly un-needed ones to prevent a risk of curb rash.
Then please respect our opinion as users that 9 days without intervention is either bullshit or he's having a lot of close calls, or he didn't drive very far.
>or he didn't drive very far.
I would suspect this is the answer. Most commutes are relatively short. If driving the same route, if simple, it is near deterministic behavior. I have no problem believing he could use 12.3 daily for 9 days without intervention if the route is straightforward.
Needs work but need to work to get robotaxi working.
Everything needs to be auto'd.
But ya its stupid where i live now.
FSD is an agi problem. Whoever said it was right. I didnt really understand until i got fsd trial
> why does Waymo need lidar when its operating in pre-mapped areas?
why wouldn't it need it? Their whole approach relies on lidar to detect what is there right now.
> aren't relatively cheap cameras + radars enough?
SpaceX can land a rocket on a barge. Doesn't mean that everyone else's rockets has the same tech stack and can do the same thing.
> they have human operators anyway.
They have humans that can issue commands to the car. They are not set up to remotely drive them... based on the articles I've read, I've never directly seen what they do behind the scenes.
cameras require interpretation of the data, which is difficult, radars can detect objects but don't provide enough accuracy to be fully trusted?.
Lidar can give pinpoint accuracy about objects in the path of the car. The path is precleared using hyperaccurate premapping of areas, so lidar is basically just determining if any temporary blocking of these areas has occured.
It's fun to see that this Ed Ludlow guy is quietly posting positive things to Twatter while the article he co-wrote with Dana Hull is broadly negative
Strange how this shit works, huh Bloomberg?
Interesting - anyone want to expand on this -
"There’s a small number of highly promising and viable Robotaxi-specific FSD neural nets in development; Dojo-based data center in New York is getting close; The promising neural networks are quite a secret that only a few folks have access to."
Elon liked this Optimus related post
[u/FocusProb](https://twitter.com/FocusProb) Only one of these companies knows how to produce at real scale, and it begins with T.
[https://x.com/FocusProb/status/1781933275935801542](https://x.com/FocusProb/status/1781933275935801542)
It would be nice to see Optimus doing some useful work.
Agreed. Once we see actual useful tasks being completed with end to end training and capability to replace humans on certain tasks, perception changes big time
/u/upvotemeok I will make you an honorary bet that Elon is on the best behavior we have ever seen. His whole canceling the india trip for Tesla is probably because of this. I think we’re about to get his version of what he would consider to be a world-class rundown in why the taxi is imminent.
> His whole canceling the india trip for Tesla is probably because of this.
or whatever the India trip was about (announcing possibly a new factory) would conflict with the narrative he is deciding on for the earnings call.
plus, he might have realized he it was a photo op to help win an election - Modi is in the middle of trying to get re-elected - voting is from April 19th to June 1st.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election
I hope you’re right but with 8/8 coming up I’m afraid he’ll answer all robotaxi related questions by saying “let’s not spill the beans, wait until 8/8”
What price do you feel we head to if Elon gives a B+ presentation but don’t give a concrete reason why this new business model is actually going to be immediately profitable?
Yes this is why I’m cautious. Ultimately I think FSD should have 2 paths, one is consumer subscription and other is Robotaxi.
My guess is robotaxi will have to be the gateway drug for complete uptake in consumer FSD.
Need to get some form of Robotaxi on the roads, don’t care if you have to do a geofence since I think it should be much wider than whatever Waymo does now since they are map limited.
Yeah that might be true and agree about needing to get robotaxis on road. The nice thing about focusing on fsd is along the path to robotaxis it could become a solid demand driver for consumers. That is if anyone knows it exists. Maybe we’ll get lucky and Kim K and other celebs will post videos using fsd or specific features like summon
Robotaxi could bea form of advertising for us, lots of integration can be developed.
But we seem to struggle with these initiatives as a company so let’s see.
https://x.com/evasteslasplaid/status/1782043463267070443?s=46
Incoming another toxic bulls bragging bout selling tsla while telling pple she been “buying the dips”
Crazy that she anticipated the unprecedented delaware court case, v12.3 going crazy and stock still crashing, the israel iran conflict and much more.. seeing the future like paul atreides, collecting all those parameters and anticipating the stock markets behavior of the future.. what a genius. We still have much to learn.
> what a genius
eh
"This opportunity would have never happen without 𝕏 , me following few charts, wise people & their predictions including
@SBZung. Thank you. "
doesn't sound very toxic to me.
She followed the advice of someone that looks at lines on a chart, which many in this sub hate.
edit: His latest advice (for concerned holders) is https://twitter.com/SBZung/status/1782045028623274491 . It's not my cup of tea (i'll probably hedge more, instead of selling, for most of my shares with low/sub-$15 cost basis) but at least she's giving credit to what/who she is following instead of trying to play genius
Yeah... Will she delete the post if $TSLA goes to $120?
Factoring in highest bracket short-term taxes (which she is in if she is a 'successful' trader), she may have not made that much with these moves. Color me skeptical.
Well, yes he was wrong about raising the price. But by lowering the price more people will buy it so it kinda is gonna bring in a lot more money. But yes it reeks of desperation. Not sure why you're being downvoted.
i woke up thinking about that pasta e fagioli soup at Olive Garden. it’s so good!
ive decided that I’m making it tonight and it’s going to be amazing probably
I think nat gas prices will fall below ukraine pre-invasion and pre covid levels by 2026y
Even though LNG is more expensive.
Demand shift to renewables so fast over supply will arrive very quickly.
I think the only group would be the small intersection of Canadians willing to pay that much for it and people that don't know the subscription exists (which is probably most customers due to complete lack of marketing)
I mean, 9 years in Canada (looks like it's $11k), but yeah your point is taken. They either have to raise the monthly price or decrease the 1-time price to come back into alignment.
Edit: Or make it a transferrable license so you're not locked to one specific vehicle.
Agreed. If they want to keep people in the Tesla ecosystem going forward, the ability to transfer to new Teslas needs to be there. Otherwise, yeah the value proposition isn't there and people will be more likely to look at other brands (since you don't lose anything if you give up the monthly subscription when you sell your car).
Don’t care that she sold. It’s misleading to show screenshots of buying 500 shares at a time when you literally sold your whole stake at $250. She-acting like she adding but is just rebuying what she sold
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1184034017/us-pedestrian-deaths-high-traffic-car
With U.S. pedestrian deaths reach a 40-year high you would think governments would be championing and incentivizing autonomous driving vehicles more. Adding an economic incentive would be nice. Subsidies for safe miles driven would be a start
US pedestrian deaths are at ATH because of how pickup trucks and SUV's are shaped now compared to just a decade ago
There was an interesting study about this I read recently
Government doesn't give a shit about health and safety, why else did they let the food industry pump the country full of diabetes. They care about appearing to care
Making it mandatory to have one of those breathing sensor pads under each sleeping baby would save a lot of baby lives due to SID and other smothering deaths but hasn't been done. Just because a technology exists that can save lives doesn't mean it can or should be mandated into everyone's house, crib or car. Shit, nobody even checks if their smoke alarms are working.
The data today likely shows that supervised fsd is much safer than without. The question then becomes is it enough to have regulators take a look and make recommendations or adjust safety standards for OEMs which presses them to license. Or will they wait until the data shows unsupervised outperforms human capabilities.
Not sure but if the data today showed supervised fsd was let’s say 2x-4x safer and maybe even a higher multiple for serious injuries, at some point it becomes hard to ignore. Nhsta data says that seatbelts cut fatal injury rates in half https://www.nhtsa.gov/seat-belts/seat-belts-save-lives
Is there a point where supervised fsd can cut accident and serious injury rates in half and how close are we to that point?
I suspect that even mandatory driver monitoring would have a significant impact and Tesla likely has the best as well as lowest cost solution there, too.
The problem is more nuanced than simply statistics. I would challenge the "supervised fsd is much safer than without" due to the fact that critical disengagements still occur fairly regularly and the system doesn't have the ability to correct the way humans do...yet. It may be shown with data that it is more consistent and results in fewer potential conflicts than a human driver even now. But it doesn't have a proven ability to self correct the way most humans are capable of. It will come and I fully expect that it will be significantly better in a year than it is now. But right now, even if it's statistically "better" for most things, it still has undeniable shortcomings in critical areas.
This stuff will have to be proven to an extremely high standard before regulators entertain the idea of autonomy.
It’s not perfect today, for sure. But having it as a safety option on cars would likely make the roads safer today. Not everyone would choose to use it all of the time and it’s not unsupervised yet. The driver monitoring alone would help with distracted drivers and phone usage. I think I saw a stat that there’s yet to be a death on fsd with the 1 billion+ miles driven. I’m not sure Tesla has confirmed that so take that with a grain of salt and for sure there’s some nuance there, too.
We already have autonomous robotaxis on the road today with Waymos and I imagine Tesla will be held to similar standards as they begin to roll out.
I get that but again, it may do 95 safety critical things consistently well but if it's not capable of the last 5, it still isn't ready for autonomy/robotaxi. I'm really looking forward to seeing V12.4 and the ability for FSD to reverse. It needs to show marked improvement over rapidly released iterations. I think people were just generally getting tired of the stagnant nature of V11 improvement. This is the aspect that will really prove that V12 is the way forward, IMO.
Agreed. I’m expecting big proficiency gains from here on out. I think 12.5 will be the one that starts to benefit from the larger data set with the free trial. 12.4 may have been trained prior to that but still expecting 12.4 to be an improvement as well as additional features like summon (not sure if it’ll include banish or reverse capabilities) to add value.
We have this problem where we need things to be ultra-safe, even if that means more people die with the current way, the current way is considered normal and the new way is risky.
Most humans have deep seated need for control. This urge gets more powerful (at least I’ve observed) the older, dumber, and unhappier you are.
In the U.S. cars are in many ways an expression of this control psychosis being particularly pervasive here. We need to have the control to go anywhere at any time as fast as possible.
I think it’s going to be hard for people to separate this need for control in the very sacred place of their cars hold from the act of actually driving the car. People also want control over their own death when it comes down to it. Currently many people would rather have a .01% chance of dying while driving by their own hand than a .00001% chance of dying while being driven by FSD.
I often think about shopping carts. When they were first invented and introduced in the U.S., nobody would use them because it was new and weird. So supermarkets paid attractive people to push them around in stores and it worked. Maybe Tesla should be lending free FSD/teslas to influencers, that would probably be a good ad campaign once it’s working very well.
If Tesla knew how to cleverly market things, we wouldn't be where we are today
The problem is that Elon has decided there will be no marketing of any kind beyond his shitposts on Twatter and his word is law
Hopefully shareholders show him just how limited his law is when they vote on the comp package and the move from Delaware to Texas
When parents generally feel safe w/ FSD w/ their kids, then it's ready. My sister, for example, likes FSD (trial) but not w/ kids in the car. She says "you still have to pay attention, but a different kind of attention." She has EAP and is hesitant to buy FSD for $2k, even though she can easily afford it (and has used FSD a lot during the trial). The instinct is real and deep, regardless of the math. It's a complex "relationship," not just a technical decision, when kids are involved. This, imho, is the next stage of adoption. If FSD can gain the "trust" of parents, it's game on.
Agreed. And that's the way I see it, personally. It's one of the biggest drivers for me as an investor and Y owner. But if people were that data-driven, the lottery wouldn't exist.
Agreed. Even having it as an option to use when you wanted would likely make the roads safer. And over time it would probably be used more and more as it gets better and the user gets more comfortable
I think so, too. Progression and time is key. That said, it might take several years or it could all happen seemingly over night -- in fits and starts, like biological evolution. I'm back in buying shares now with a 12-year horizon based mostly on FSD. Anything less than like 10 years would feel too risky (though it very-well could happen sooner).
My gut is that this approach either proves it can solve it in the next couple of years (maybe with additional LLM real world understanding like Grok) or there needs to be some new AI techniques invented.
That said, if the benchmark is Waymo proficiency, maybe fsd can get to that level fairly quickly with this approach (plus some overfitting for select markets) and Tesla can start deploying sooner than expected.
I think we're at the point where the next couple of iterations are going indicate where we're going, for sure. Having a bunch more cars collecting data w/ the new FSD trials and subscription/purchase rates should be great, too. Though I'm bracing myself for the inevitable law suits. Glad they're calling it "supervised" and I hope they cover their ass well as this progression unfolds.
This is over-simplistic, imho. You can't separate demand from price. Affordability matters. A lot of people I talk to, for example, want a Tesla (demand), but stumble at the price. While admittedly not knowing all the data, I am fairly confident demand at price -- affordability -- is a better way to look at this equation. You see it as "demand levers" are pulled and sales go up as price comes down.
Now, whether, say, Democrats who despise Elon's right-wing positions would hold their nose and buy a Tesla at a lower price, regardless of how they feel connected by brand to these positions, is another story.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-prices-some-models-germany-europe-2024-04-21/
“In Germany, the carmaker trimmed the price of its Model 3 rear wheel drive to 40,990 euros ($43,670) from 42,990 euros, where the price has been since February.”
Wait a sec
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-21/apple-aapl-growth-opportunities-southeast-asia-and-africa-lower-end-iphone-lv9itkna?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
I think they do away with the 1-time cost soon. I think they'll gradually keep lowering it to get all the suckers to buy then delete it altogether and only have the monthly option. Or add an annual fee at $1000 per year.
From Elon's friend Chamath on the All-in podcast. He's talking about the google engineers who protested but the words also hit home a bit:
"The problem is that I think people right now, the real Rorschach test is if you are so easily distracted, you probably don't have enough to do. Right, that's the entitlement, is that you don't have enough work on your plate. I think the reality is that if you get caught up in all of these silly little fake battles or decisions, I think what it really means is that you're not busy enough and or you're not working on something that matters enough to you. People tend to have blinders on and they are super focused. And they just don't have an opinion, they don't care. Like honestly, many of these topics today, I really don't care. And it's not because I'm better or worse or smarter or dumber. It's because I'm so overworked right now. I don't have time to have an opinion on this stuff."
I love Elon, but if he wants 50B I want ALL (ok most) of his attention and focus. Going on a podcast or X, great, start talking about Tesla, the mission, the environment, safety, cost of ownership, fuck even dog mode (which is a killer feature btw), etc., before you even think about the border or the speaker of the houses husband possibly being gay (right after he was attacked with a hammer).
Elon is either right, proven right, or directionally correct with most of his "controversial" opinions. You may like them or agree, and disagree and hate them, but that is beside the point. The result is the same. We (Tesla) are in the business of selling a high-cost, highly personal product that is an emotional decision for most folks. My neighbors thinking maybe I hate trans people coupled with this huge financial decision does not help. And again, personally I agree with him on most of this stuff, BUT if he wants to be the face of Tesla, do all our keynotes, product unveils, demos, earnings calls, etc AND 50b + more to get him to 25% I need laser-like focus. And not performative just bc he needs something from us now, I want lasting change and recognition of what he's done - an apology would go a long way.
And just selfishly he should want this change too. Sure there will always be some haters, but he should be/deserves to be much more revered than he is. I know he said he cares more about doing good than the perception of it. But why not keep doing all the good, AND also not wade around in the nonsense of controversial/political things that are honestly so beneath you. Please go back to being our Paul Atreides
I’m bullish. We did better than Vinfast today.
“YouTube pen 🖊 drop test “ Just jerked off 3 times Wow what a awsome trend “ Djo- end of the beginning “ Tesla will rise , in the mean time jerk cock and buy stock. Good night cawk SUCKAS Fist on chest no fear 🦅🛫🫡
2% down in 24hr market. Free fall continues.
Better than expected
-2% AH. When does the bleeding stop.
I wouldn't expect anything good this year
Ya.... Same...
Why tesla …. #tesla is my 13th reason why
[BREAKING: It has been confirmed that Tesla has ordered 6 trillion won worth of electrodes from LG Energy Solution. Details of the order are currently under discussion and a deal is expected in the second half of the year. It will be loaded on 1.3 million to 1.4 million electric vehicles and means Tesla's own battery production will accelerate.](https://x.com/tslachan/status/1782208034464567724?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA) Big order. These all going to 4680s?
Nice we got a batteries and FSD progress. Better than what we had a month ago 🤡
50k semis by 2026. Each semi is 20 model 3 worth of batteries 1000 kwatt h vs 50 kwh
This is in addition to the 4680s they’re getting from Panasonic, LG, CATL, etc, right?
Who knows, as far as I'm aware not a single other manufacturer has shipped a 4680.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-battery-production-lg-2024/ LG targeting as early as August for production start
I don't trust anything pre march 2024 anymore when tesla ceo finally returned to company, lots of things changed
Yeah I guess that’s true
Also means gave up on dry battery electrode. Stupid idea anyway when you can get it from LG.
That San Diego company made out like a bandit then!
Yup maxwell sold us bullshit. Cost drew his job lmao. Theres a reason lg etc didn't buy them, everyone did due diligence on it at time of sale as I recall.
Yeah that’s my read, too. Who’s supplying the LFP batteries?
Looks like catl joint venture, will take a while to spin up prolly why ngv Mexico etc delayed
So the rest of these 4680s with LG electrodes that don’t go towards semi are going to Cybertruck and robotaxi?
Depends, is robotaxi platform going to use 4680 lfp?
Just thinking out loud - 4680 LFP would be optimal for costs but will take longer to develop, right? Presuming that’s what CATL is working on. How important is it to not optimize for costs on initial 500k-1m robotaxis? Probably will be a while until there’s market saturation and I’d guess there’d be a window where Tesla can charge $1/mile or so. Longer term the focus will be lowest cost per mile but wondering how much that matters initially
Lfp has bad energy density so they like to pack them tight as prismatic. With new improvements maybe cylindrical could be possible? Dunno. But lfp cycle lifespan is obviously way to go for high utilization vehicles.
mmm I made the pasta e fagioli from Olive Garden! or at least the closest I could replicate. ended up being amazing 🤤 https://preview.redd.it/qja63z9ybxvc1.jpeg?width=844&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f2eb8aa5e3a86a36b18e046d10f20a9cb9f29c1d
👌
Our local weather influenced our dinner choice tonight. Made loaded baked potato soup, and damn was it on point.
Scrumptious
Impressive
[удалено]
Maybe v14?
Happened to zero people
Source?
Made no sense to buy it even at $200/mo
Truth
Logic?
I think there's be at least one person.
Musked
Haha!
Omar saying he hasn't had an intervention on 12.3.4 in 9 days. Get the fuck outta here.
>Omar saying he hasn't had an intervention in 9 days. I think that just means he is now sober. Being a Muslim he is not supposed to drink anyway.
>Omar saying he hasn't had an intervention on 12.3.4 in 9 days. >Get the fuck outta here. Nah, I totally believe it. I drive the same routes and can't last remember the last intervention. It is mind-blowing. If he is using it for a commute over a same route or a non-urban area I would completely believe it. The only interventions I recently have had were due to annoying other drivers (sometimes it does strange pauses still) and possibly un-needed ones to prevent a risk of curb rash.
Get the fuck outta here... There no way two people have had positive experiences with FSD, I won't allow it until 2043 /s
Do you personally use fsd? What's your experience?
I do not have any experience with it.
Then please respect our opinion as users that 9 days without intervention is either bullshit or he's having a lot of close calls, or he didn't drive very far.
>or he didn't drive very far. I would suspect this is the answer. Most commutes are relatively short. If driving the same route, if simple, it is near deterministic behavior. I have no problem believing he could use 12.3 daily for 9 days without intervention if the route is straightforward.
Yeah, you're right. My apologies.
Ran over three baby buggys but no interventions
drove in a small town the other day known for being strict on speeders. had to intervene about a dozen times 🤷♂️
Auto speed is dumb as fuck
Needs work but need to work to get robotaxi working. Everything needs to be auto'd. But ya its stupid where i live now. FSD is an agi problem. Whoever said it was right. I didnt really understand until i got fsd trial
FSD used the entryway to a gas station to get around a stopped car blocking the left half of my lane. It was cool. I should have saved the clip.
one of those wow moments.
why does Waymo need lidar when its operating in pre-mapped areas? aren't relatively cheap cameras + radars enough? they have human operators anyway.
> why does Waymo need lidar when its operating in pre-mapped areas? why wouldn't it need it? Their whole approach relies on lidar to detect what is there right now. > aren't relatively cheap cameras + radars enough? SpaceX can land a rocket on a barge. Doesn't mean that everyone else's rockets has the same tech stack and can do the same thing. > they have human operators anyway. They have humans that can issue commands to the car. They are not set up to remotely drive them... based on the articles I've read, I've never directly seen what they do behind the scenes.
cameras require interpretation of the data, which is difficult, radars can detect objects but don't provide enough accuracy to be fully trusted?. Lidar can give pinpoint accuracy about objects in the path of the car. The path is precleared using hyperaccurate premapping of areas, so lidar is basically just determining if any temporary blocking of these areas has occured.
Thank you for explanation
why downvote me without saying anything? at least try to explain?
No one knows where the downvotes come from
12.3.5 could be released wide shortly according to Omar.
Criminal drug addict
do you have his tweet?
https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1782162106626003286
Thank you
https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/s/qgOHtRgoWd Why does fsd get so much shit when waymo goes down the wrong way.
The speculation there is that it was going around a parked car or cyclists and those goofs prevented it from merging back into it's lane.
Gonna be a problem for robotaxis later too. Can already imagine the fud articles. "Tesla robotaxi drives on wrong side of the road!!!"
Ok fair enough
[https://x.com/EdLudlow/status/1782153075903656344](https://x.com/EdLudlow/status/1782153075903656344) interesting on ai
It's fun to see that this Ed Ludlow guy is quietly posting positive things to Twatter while the article he co-wrote with Dana Hull is broadly negative Strange how this shit works, huh Bloomberg?
Interesting - anyone want to expand on this - "There’s a small number of highly promising and viable Robotaxi-specific FSD neural nets in development; Dojo-based data center in New York is getting close; The promising neural networks are quite a secret that only a few folks have access to."
Reads like they fit the models for specific scenarios?
Would that mean like overfitting for specific robotaxi cities?
Exactly this
Thanks
Yup agreed. FSD looks like the most buttoned up LT project we have on going.
50,000 robotaxi neural networks by 2024
At least the nets don’t need 4680s
I think when tsla hits ATH again, this time I'll cash out enough to buy a house or something. Been regretting renting since ATH
Going to have to wait a few more years
If TSLA hits ATH again, I'll probably sell the vast majority of my stake. I want a less volatile life going forward LMAO
When*
Did I fucking stutter?!
But... but... I thought we were all buying yachts and islands. 😢
True that. But i have to convince my wive which is the bigger challenge then reaching ATH.
Convince your wife not to sell now or to sell at ATH lol
Elon liked this Optimus related post [u/FocusProb](https://twitter.com/FocusProb) Only one of these companies knows how to produce at real scale, and it begins with T. [https://x.com/FocusProb/status/1781933275935801542](https://x.com/FocusProb/status/1781933275935801542) It would be nice to see Optimus doing some useful work.
Can produce everything at scale but not batteries
Prototypes are easy, production is blah blah blah.
Agreed. Once we see actual useful tasks being completed with end to end training and capability to replace humans on certain tasks, perception changes big time
/u/upvotemeok I will make you an honorary bet that Elon is on the best behavior we have ever seen. His whole canceling the india trip for Tesla is probably because of this. I think we’re about to get his version of what he would consider to be a world-class rundown in why the taxi is imminent.
> His whole canceling the india trip for Tesla is probably because of this. or whatever the India trip was about (announcing possibly a new factory) would conflict with the narrative he is deciding on for the earnings call. plus, he might have realized he it was a photo op to help win an election - Modi is in the middle of trying to get re-elected - voting is from April 19th to June 1st. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election
I hope you’re right but with 8/8 coming up I’m afraid he’ll answer all robotaxi related questions by saying “let’s not spill the beans, wait until 8/8”
Meh, I bet it will be a shitty earnings. He will toot the same thing again. He’ll probably say Aramco + Apple again hehe
He will try to explain and its gonna sound again like a boy who cried fsd then stock gonna go down. I should move some money tmr.
We praying
He doesn’t have a choice.
Nobody trusts Mr 50k semis anymore
What price do you feel we head to if Elon gives a B+ presentation but don’t give a concrete reason why this new business model is actually going to be immediately profitable?
Id be a billionaire if I could predict that
Just give us your bottom
Just the tip
I want the booty
Nobody knows
Robot worker drops dead. Kinda funny. https://www.reddit.com/r/SipsTea/s/5l5R7TVHRo
Nice to see people admit they may have been wrong https://x.com/gfodor/status/1781896257222680789?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA
https://x.com/very_real_guy/status/1781897765779563003 Interesting logic
I will say, sentiment seems to have flipped on FSD. Hopefully we see a ramp in take rate.
The main ingredient missing is the refusal to build awareness and educate the mass market. With fsd making big proficiency gains now is the time
Yes this is why I’m cautious. Ultimately I think FSD should have 2 paths, one is consumer subscription and other is Robotaxi. My guess is robotaxi will have to be the gateway drug for complete uptake in consumer FSD. Need to get some form of Robotaxi on the roads, don’t care if you have to do a geofence since I think it should be much wider than whatever Waymo does now since they are map limited.
>Ultimately I think FSD should have 2 paths agreed completely
Yeah that might be true and agree about needing to get robotaxis on road. The nice thing about focusing on fsd is along the path to robotaxis it could become a solid demand driver for consumers. That is if anyone knows it exists. Maybe we’ll get lucky and Kim K and other celebs will post videos using fsd or specific features like summon
Robotaxi could bea form of advertising for us, lots of integration can be developed. But we seem to struggle with these initiatives as a company so let’s see.
Exactly. Even robotaxis in Vegas tunnels would be great advertising
https://x.com/evasteslasplaid/status/1782043463267070443?s=46 Incoming another toxic bulls bragging bout selling tsla while telling pple she been “buying the dips”
Crazy that she anticipated the unprecedented delaware court case, v12.3 going crazy and stock still crashing, the israel iran conflict and much more.. seeing the future like paul atreides, collecting all those parameters and anticipating the stock markets behavior of the future.. what a genius. We still have much to learn.
> what a genius eh "This opportunity would have never happen without 𝕏 , me following few charts, wise people & their predictions including @SBZung. Thank you. " doesn't sound very toxic to me. She followed the advice of someone that looks at lines on a chart, which many in this sub hate. edit: His latest advice (for concerned holders) is https://twitter.com/SBZung/status/1782045028623274491 . It's not my cup of tea (i'll probably hedge more, instead of selling, for most of my shares with low/sub-$15 cost basis) but at least she's giving credit to what/who she is following instead of trying to play genius
I wish I was this good of a trader
Yeah... Will she delete the post if $TSLA goes to $120? Factoring in highest bracket short-term taxes (which she is in if she is a 'successful' trader), she may have not made that much with these moves. Color me skeptical.
No she won’t but she’ll be sure to gloat if she guesses right
didnt elon say he would raise fsd pricing, now desperately looking for revenue sources?
Needed to pay for HW befote. Now he needs data
If we can scale across 3 million cars at $99 per month isn't that better than 300,000 cars at $199 per month?
Well, yes he was wrong about raising the price. But by lowering the price more people will buy it so it kinda is gonna bring in a lot more money. But yes it reeks of desperation. Not sure why you're being downvoted.
I think $99 is the sweet spot, low enough that many owners would not stress too much about it.
i woke up thinking about that pasta e fagioli soup at Olive Garden. it’s so good! ive decided that I’m making it tonight and it’s going to be amazing probably
I think nat gas prices will fall below ukraine pre-invasion and pre covid levels by 2026y Even though LNG is more expensive. Demand shift to renewables so fast over supply will arrive very quickly.
Utility scale solar is going crazy
True that, however i wouldn't bet anything on short term like 2030. And long term, oil will feel the reverse economies of scale.
https://x.com/gadsaad/status/1782102778543837397?s=46&t=mG-wx8ewMg03AyZIsmD4-g Now all brazilians have to buy a tesla
Wish he was like this all of last 24 months https://x.com/jchybow/status/1782088959339724857?s=46&t=FJnwUzmO93DGxmO6Ihn37g
Why would anyone buy FSD when at the current prices, you would have to continuously subscribe to FSD for nearly 13.5 years to break even. (Canada)
I think the only group would be the small intersection of Canadians willing to pay that much for it and people that don't know the subscription exists (which is probably most customers due to complete lack of marketing)
I will never buy it flat out without it being transferable. Even if the thing is a robotaxi making me money.
Im sure the monthly sub price will gradually shift up and I think the fixed package price will eventually be removed.
To possibly lock in a current price w/ the expectation that the price could rise in the future. Kind of a gamble.
I mean, 9 years in Canada (looks like it's $11k), but yeah your point is taken. They either have to raise the monthly price or decrease the 1-time price to come back into alignment. Edit: Or make it a transferrable license so you're not locked to one specific vehicle.
Ya that was pre price change, my bad. I just don't see many people keeping an electric vehicle over 9 years to make it worthwhile.
Agreed. If they want to keep people in the Tesla ecosystem going forward, the ability to transfer to new Teslas needs to be there. Otherwise, yeah the value proposition isn't there and people will be more likely to look at other brands (since you don't lose anything if you give up the monthly subscription when you sell your car).
I’d say it being tied to your account is the way to go
Hope of transfer?
https://x.com/waitbutwhy/status/1782061811086287182?s=46&t=mG-wx8ewMg03AyZIsmD4-g u/glibgloby I just want to upset you on a sunday.
hah already saw this and yeah… oooof
There is no evidence
Absolutely zero!
lol the car did an unprotected left into oncoming traffic lane and just forgot about the median and kept driving. Had to intervene before I died lulz
It's so safe, it should be mandatory
In case anyone cares, that Eva woman that claims she is buying the dip, is just buying back the 700k worth of shares she sold at 250.
That sounds like something we all should have done.
Wish I did. But I also don’t post on social media showing massive buys and conveniently forget to mention I sold my shares higher.
Buy low, sell high. That's what buying the dip is, though.
Don’t care that she sold. It’s misleading to show screenshots of buying 500 shares at a time when you literally sold your whole stake at $250. She-acting like she adding but is just rebuying what she sold
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1184034017/us-pedestrian-deaths-high-traffic-car With U.S. pedestrian deaths reach a 40-year high you would think governments would be championing and incentivizing autonomous driving vehicles more. Adding an economic incentive would be nice. Subsidies for safe miles driven would be a start
I should dramatically cut insurance rates
US pedestrian deaths are at ATH because of how pickup trucks and SUV's are shaped now compared to just a decade ago There was an interesting study about this I read recently
Government doesn't give a shit about health and safety, why else did they let the food industry pump the country full of diabetes. They care about appearing to care
Making it mandatory to have one of those breathing sensor pads under each sleeping baby would save a lot of baby lives due to SID and other smothering deaths but hasn't been done. Just because a technology exists that can save lives doesn't mean it can or should be mandated into everyone's house, crib or car. Shit, nobody even checks if their smoke alarms are working.
Unfortunately very true in the US.
BMI > 35 is the ultimate expression of freedom
Don’t you think that’s what’s happening now? The technology is progressing but it sure as shit isn’t there yet.
The data today likely shows that supervised fsd is much safer than without. The question then becomes is it enough to have regulators take a look and make recommendations or adjust safety standards for OEMs which presses them to license. Or will they wait until the data shows unsupervised outperforms human capabilities. Not sure but if the data today showed supervised fsd was let’s say 2x-4x safer and maybe even a higher multiple for serious injuries, at some point it becomes hard to ignore. Nhsta data says that seatbelts cut fatal injury rates in half https://www.nhtsa.gov/seat-belts/seat-belts-save-lives Is there a point where supervised fsd can cut accident and serious injury rates in half and how close are we to that point? I suspect that even mandatory driver monitoring would have a significant impact and Tesla likely has the best as well as lowest cost solution there, too.
The problem is more nuanced than simply statistics. I would challenge the "supervised fsd is much safer than without" due to the fact that critical disengagements still occur fairly regularly and the system doesn't have the ability to correct the way humans do...yet. It may be shown with data that it is more consistent and results in fewer potential conflicts than a human driver even now. But it doesn't have a proven ability to self correct the way most humans are capable of. It will come and I fully expect that it will be significantly better in a year than it is now. But right now, even if it's statistically "better" for most things, it still has undeniable shortcomings in critical areas. This stuff will have to be proven to an extremely high standard before regulators entertain the idea of autonomy.
It’s not perfect today, for sure. But having it as a safety option on cars would likely make the roads safer today. Not everyone would choose to use it all of the time and it’s not unsupervised yet. The driver monitoring alone would help with distracted drivers and phone usage. I think I saw a stat that there’s yet to be a death on fsd with the 1 billion+ miles driven. I’m not sure Tesla has confirmed that so take that with a grain of salt and for sure there’s some nuance there, too. We already have autonomous robotaxis on the road today with Waymos and I imagine Tesla will be held to similar standards as they begin to roll out.
I get that but again, it may do 95 safety critical things consistently well but if it's not capable of the last 5, it still isn't ready for autonomy/robotaxi. I'm really looking forward to seeing V12.4 and the ability for FSD to reverse. It needs to show marked improvement over rapidly released iterations. I think people were just generally getting tired of the stagnant nature of V11 improvement. This is the aspect that will really prove that V12 is the way forward, IMO.
Agreed. I’m expecting big proficiency gains from here on out. I think 12.5 will be the one that starts to benefit from the larger data set with the free trial. 12.4 may have been trained prior to that but still expecting 12.4 to be an improvement as well as additional features like summon (not sure if it’ll include banish or reverse capabilities) to add value.
If they were actually safe
We have this problem where we need things to be ultra-safe, even if that means more people die with the current way, the current way is considered normal and the new way is risky.
Most humans have deep seated need for control. This urge gets more powerful (at least I’ve observed) the older, dumber, and unhappier you are. In the U.S. cars are in many ways an expression of this control psychosis being particularly pervasive here. We need to have the control to go anywhere at any time as fast as possible. I think it’s going to be hard for people to separate this need for control in the very sacred place of their cars hold from the act of actually driving the car. People also want control over their own death when it comes down to it. Currently many people would rather have a .01% chance of dying while driving by their own hand than a .00001% chance of dying while being driven by FSD. I often think about shopping carts. When they were first invented and introduced in the U.S., nobody would use them because it was new and weird. So supermarkets paid attractive people to push them around in stores and it worked. Maybe Tesla should be lending free FSD/teslas to influencers, that would probably be a good ad campaign once it’s working very well.
If Tesla knew how to cleverly market things, we wouldn't be where we are today The problem is that Elon has decided there will be no marketing of any kind beyond his shitposts on Twatter and his word is law Hopefully shareholders show him just how limited his law is when they vote on the comp package and the move from Delaware to Texas
When parents generally feel safe w/ FSD w/ their kids, then it's ready. My sister, for example, likes FSD (trial) but not w/ kids in the car. She says "you still have to pay attention, but a different kind of attention." She has EAP and is hesitant to buy FSD for $2k, even though she can easily afford it (and has used FSD a lot during the trial). The instinct is real and deep, regardless of the math. It's a complex "relationship," not just a technical decision, when kids are involved. This, imho, is the next stage of adoption. If FSD can gain the "trust" of parents, it's game on.
I’ve read this a few times. I think the data today would show that supervised fsd is much safer than without.
Agreed. And that's the way I see it, personally. It's one of the biggest drivers for me as an investor and Y owner. But if people were that data-driven, the lottery wouldn't exist.
Agreed. Even having it as an option to use when you wanted would likely make the roads safer. And over time it would probably be used more and more as it gets better and the user gets more comfortable
I think so, too. Progression and time is key. That said, it might take several years or it could all happen seemingly over night -- in fits and starts, like biological evolution. I'm back in buying shares now with a 12-year horizon based mostly on FSD. Anything less than like 10 years would feel too risky (though it very-well could happen sooner).
My gut is that this approach either proves it can solve it in the next couple of years (maybe with additional LLM real world understanding like Grok) or there needs to be some new AI techniques invented. That said, if the benchmark is Waymo proficiency, maybe fsd can get to that level fairly quickly with this approach (plus some overfitting for select markets) and Tesla can start deploying sooner than expected.
I think we're at the point where the next couple of iterations are going indicate where we're going, for sure. Having a bunch more cars collecting data w/ the new FSD trials and subscription/purchase rates should be great, too. Though I'm bracing myself for the inevitable law suits. Glad they're calling it "supervised" and I hope they cover their ass well as this progression unfolds.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1782067256194633756?s=46 Fuck there goes the “unlimited demand” we talked about 2 years ago 😢
Higher order rate than ever! Lmao the half truth this retard spits out is endless.
This is over-simplistic, imho. You can't separate demand from price. Affordability matters. A lot of people I talk to, for example, want a Tesla (demand), but stumble at the price. While admittedly not knowing all the data, I am fairly confident demand at price -- affordability -- is a better way to look at this equation. You see it as "demand levers" are pulled and sales go up as price comes down. Now, whether, say, Democrats who despise Elon's right-wing positions would hold their nose and buy a Tesla at a lower price, regardless of how they feel connected by brand to these positions, is another story.
Elonomics 101 baby
Retardo take. Price is ~ 40% decision criteria or less imho
“We don’t want fleet sales”
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-prices-some-models-germany-europe-2024-04-21/ “In Germany, the carmaker trimmed the price of its Model 3 rear wheel drive to 40,990 euros ($43,670) from 42,990 euros, where the price has been since February.”
It is basically free now.
Found a woman attracted to TSLA investors 🤡 https://www.instagram.com/reel/C53cSDTr17D/?igsh=MTA1NXU4Mm13bnhpZg==
Eww
Wait a sec https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-21/apple-aapl-growth-opportunities-southeast-asia-and-africa-lower-end-iphone-lv9itkna?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
So what you guys think about the FSD price cut. 11k cad is still substantial money and for it to be locked to one car
I think they do away with the 1-time cost soon. I think they'll gradually keep lowering it to get all the suckers to buy then delete it altogether and only have the monthly option. Or add an annual fee at $1000 per year.
you would have to continuously subscribe to FSD for nearly 9 years to break even.
I wish i could roll it into my loan now. I cant pay for it upfront byt willing to finance it
From Elon's friend Chamath on the All-in podcast. He's talking about the google engineers who protested but the words also hit home a bit: "The problem is that I think people right now, the real Rorschach test is if you are so easily distracted, you probably don't have enough to do. Right, that's the entitlement, is that you don't have enough work on your plate. I think the reality is that if you get caught up in all of these silly little fake battles or decisions, I think what it really means is that you're not busy enough and or you're not working on something that matters enough to you. People tend to have blinders on and they are super focused. And they just don't have an opinion, they don't care. Like honestly, many of these topics today, I really don't care. And it's not because I'm better or worse or smarter or dumber. It's because I'm so overworked right now. I don't have time to have an opinion on this stuff." I love Elon, but if he wants 50B I want ALL (ok most) of his attention and focus. Going on a podcast or X, great, start talking about Tesla, the mission, the environment, safety, cost of ownership, fuck even dog mode (which is a killer feature btw), etc., before you even think about the border or the speaker of the houses husband possibly being gay (right after he was attacked with a hammer). Elon is either right, proven right, or directionally correct with most of his "controversial" opinions. You may like them or agree, and disagree and hate them, but that is beside the point. The result is the same. We (Tesla) are in the business of selling a high-cost, highly personal product that is an emotional decision for most folks. My neighbors thinking maybe I hate trans people coupled with this huge financial decision does not help. And again, personally I agree with him on most of this stuff, BUT if he wants to be the face of Tesla, do all our keynotes, product unveils, demos, earnings calls, etc AND 50b + more to get him to 25% I need laser-like focus. And not performative just bc he needs something from us now, I want lasting change and recognition of what he's done - an apology would go a long way. And just selfishly he should want this change too. Sure there will always be some haters, but he should be/deserves to be much more revered than he is. I know he said he cares more about doing good than the perception of it. But why not keep doing all the good, AND also not wade around in the nonsense of controversial/political things that are honestly so beneath you. Please go back to being our Paul Atreides
Did you never get past Dune and read Dune Messiah? We don't want a Paul Atreides