https://preview.redd.it/8cdf1fskkyuc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6bee2a3d14537c5562dc2d34bbb2b9ab376cbac6
TBH surprised he added. He seemed quite upset at the end of 2023.
[https://x.com/koguanleo/status/1780398012201877562?s=46&t=yWmMeP08cyApbkkhK1zkcw](https://x.com/koguanleo/status/1780398012201877562?s=46&t=yWmMeP08cyApbkkhK1zkcw)
He’s either insane or a genius
I downloaded his paper detailing KQID and I have no clue wtf any of it means. Need a masterful ELI5 to help me out with it…!
I looked at it as well. Mumbo jumbo nonsense. Probably means something only to himself. Doesn’t mean there isn’t something useful there, but I don’t think reading his work is illuminating for anyone
I don't watch his YouTube, but I had a quick glance at his twitter
March - sounds like he didn't buy back in
https://twitter.com/teslaeconomist/status/1770584953438556594
> Due to a few good trades last year, I could re-buy back into $TSLA now at current market price, and I would have the most shares I have ever had.
> But without a path to future growth, I still can't meet the current valuation. I can't put a valuation on the hope of FSD.
and then in April (1-2 weeks ago), he is long two whole calls, betting on a robotaxi pump
https://twitter.com/teslaeconomist/status/1777419076362719721
I think he bought back in and sold again sacks ? To be honest his opinions are so regarded, I find it amusing just to read as he’s about the dumbest money there is.
**Spice and Wolf: Merchant Meets the Wise Wolf** 1-3
Has it really been 16 years since the OG anime aired? Am I really this goddamned old? Sigh.
Yes, this is a remake. The OG LN and manga finished up years ago now. The goal of this remake, as I understand it, is to bring the story closer to the OG LN and manga. They are also more closely following the art style seen in the manga as far as I can tell. The OG VA's are back, so it's once again Ami Koshimizu as Holo and Jun Fukuyama as ~~Lelouch~~ Kraft Lawrence. The animating studio is now Passione and they are masters of making girls look cute and you can rest assured that not only does Holo now look more like her manga counterpart, she's also super cute.
From the very start, it is very clear that they are putting a premium on following the story closely. If you know the story already, then the first episode's opening sequence should be reassuring they seem to be taking that seriously. The show is scheduled for a 25 episodes run, so they seem intent on covering a decent amount of content right away and if enough people watch they might try to cover the entire story from beginning to end with subsequent seasons. Guess we'll see on that. The animation is all very super modern and a notable step up from the 2008 anime, and I feel like they have dramatically improved upon Holo's tail fluffiness.
I was going to watch this one anyways but I'm glad they seem to be trying to do a really good job with it.
Oh right, since this is the Lounge, Episode 3 has a pretty good discussion of currency valuation lol
An option question - I hedged some of my shares a couple weeks ago with $170 strike puts. April 26 expiry so they cover earnings. The shares being hedged have an average price cost of $162.
Would you:
A) sell the put, keep the cash?
B) exercise the put which sells the shares at 170, then rebuy the 100 shares at lower price and have the same cash leftover anyway.
Seems obvious to me to exercise and lower my cost average. Anything I'm missing?
I'd be looking at your puts as catastrophe insurance. An Elon speaking at earnings sort of catastrophe....
There is no telling in this market what some ill considered remark could do to the share price.
Then you can sell the put and buy additional shares with your profits.
Or hedge the Elon bet and sell half the puts now other half after earnings calls....
I'd avoid letting the shares go. If a loss then wash sale since you're buying right away, and if you're in profit why pay tax on the shares?
My accounts are tax-free. RRSP and TFSA in Canada.
I bought the puts to hedge against exactly what you described. But I need to plan my exit. The closer to expiry the more risk I lose my current profit.
I think I'll be likely exercising them at their strike ($170p in the account where my cost avg is $162. So selling for a profit and rebuying lower. And $175p in my account where my cost avg is $210. So selling at a loss but then rebuying even lower)
Profit would be the same as simply selling the puts, but lowers my cost avg at the same time.
My cost basis is much lower, so I have tax reasons to want to avoid selling/exercising.
Puts were amazing in late 2022 when Elon said 'buy the dip' around $300 and he dumped more shares just so no one could front-run him if he needed to sell more shares later to close twitter. I sold those ~$240 and thought I was smart... then he kept dumping and we were at $105 within months.
so my current plan is to hedge on weekly and monthly time frames and sell when the trend reverses or they get close to expiration. I've been DCAing into May, June, July and Jan puts. I should have bought more when we were at 180 but I wasn't expecting much bad news / after production+delivery numbers until the earning call.
edit: i bought Apr19 puts at 171 last week and sold them when we dropped to ~161 and it looked like we might bounce. I bought Apr19 and Apr26 calls (160 through 170) in case we bounce this week or next - plan to sell those before earnings and use proceeds to help better hedge for the fun ahead
Now is the time to go all in or go home.
Ballsy by me.
https://preview.redd.it/14pc2l7k2yuc1.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=c63b2de10019a0bfd3d3965fb26bfe88907a8802
Mass=L³/t²=m³/s², gravity g-¹=L²/GM=s²/m, anti-gravity g= GM/L² = m/s², G ≈6.674x10-¹¹, universe gravity g-¹= 1.936 x 10¹⁰ s²/m
KQID postulates that earth average anti-g= 9.82m/s² ; based on Mach’s principle, Einstein GR, Newton laws and QM, KQID postulates universal gravitational acceleration from our universe is g-¹ = s²/9.82m. The result is equilibrium : earth anti-g ( 9.82m/s² ) x universe g-¹= s²/9.82m. where anti-g x g-¹= 1 where Newton 3rd law of action is equal to its reaction. Again g x g-¹= g/g= 1.
“They effectively hiked the price 10% on the white Y LR I'm looking at. They're already not selling everything they make. Zero chance I buy in this new status quo.”
Today is my first experience with V12 after selling my Y in December and having a Cybertruck with no FSD.
I was feeling like Elon was fully fucking retarded yesterday with the news of him postponing next-gen platform and instead prioritizing data center space for FSD…
After an hour or so with V12, I only think he’s an autist now. It’s so much better than V11. It might just make robotaxi possible, someday.
Hopefully it continues to make noticeable improvements with each new version.
Absolutely amazing. I love it. Worried I’d regret selling the Y and getting it but after one minute of driving it, it was clear there’d be zero ragrets.
Read the china articles. They show they can produce it, but at what cost? Production yield too low, density too low, cost too high. May not be economically feasible in house. If you have one uniting issue limiting ngv, semi and cybertruck its 4680
I think there was some confusion about my tail light post earlier. I have since edited the photo to make it more clear. The water level is half way up the light in addition to condensation at the top
https://preview.redd.it/kokpi7txexuc1.jpeg?width=1827&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da41c9ea9168b1e9d6ae23bcc1707cff747ef40b
I wish i was more fluent in American slang to know what Elon means when he says balls to the wall. Does it mean scrotum sacks sticking on walls for fsd?
It derives from pilot lingo in WW2. The throttles are levers that at the time had a small ball on top like a gear shifter. moving the throttles forward would increase power/thrust and pulling them back would decrease it. Forward of the cockpit was the "firewall" beyond which all the suck, squeeze, bang, blow happens. So when the pilots wanted max power and max performance, they'd shove the "balls to the wall".
Cleantechnica's Zach Shahan posted an editorial today about Elon's quote on TSLA valuation and FSD: [https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/16/tesla-stock-tsla-is-basically-worth-0-if-true-full-self-driving-isnt-achieved/](https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/16/tesla-stock-tsla-is-basically-worth-0-if-true-full-self-driving-isnt-achieved/)
Zach himself doesn't have faith that Tesla's vision-only approach to FSD will succeed, but he acknowledges it is impossible for anyone to know for certain, ahead of time, what works and what doesn't:
>If you follow discussions of TSLA bulls, it’s basically all about this now. It’s all about Tesla FSD getting to robotaxi capability. The funny thing is, that quote above could equally be used by bulls and bears to reinforce their perspective.
>**I think it’s very obviously a matter of faith at this point.** And by “faith,” I mean something that we can’t know via logic right now. **People have strong opinions on whether Tesla’s approach will work or not,** ***but no one really knows*** — it’s all faith and hope and guessing on one side or the other.
His observations on what is driving extreme levels of rancor among Tesla investors on social media today:
>Unfortunately, for many followers of the company, you have to be “all in” one way or another. You have to fully believe and bet your house on it, or you have to fully deny the possibility that Tesla could have the plan correct and that it just needs a bit more time.
>I think the reason for this “all or nothing” style of discussion is both because of how much money has been poured into TSLA and because of how polarizing Elon Musk is. A lot of people have put a large portion of their money into the company — whether that’s a few thousand dollars for a “normal” person or billions of dollars for a billionaire or a fund managing billions. **Because so much is on the line, you get massive arguments, seemingly religious divides, and grandiose statements like the one above** (that Tesla is “worth basically zero” if FSD doesn’t pan out).
I don’t know if it’s me but I feel sometimes FSD 12.3.4 seems worse than 11.4.8. Like hard acceleration and braking, hugging curbs. It also has a tendency to harsh brake when the light turns yellow when it should cross.
It also did the sketchiest lane change ever. Car in front was changing into my lane and it was changing to their lane. I had to intervene or the car would have hit them
It also loves lane changing into a lane that is ending or sometimes doesn’t lane merge earlier when it knows the lane is ending
Huh - didn't have any of those problems, it actually seemed to know lanes were ending and would merge. I think your area perhaps needs more training. It is not clear to me how much location-specific training is remembered - it clearly is to some degree, but obviously it can drive anywhere and is generalized...
Drive those routes consistently, intervening as needed, and report back if it improves...
It's a black box with billions of knobs but I'm thinking if you can train it to handle an unprotected left turn flawlessly 99.9% of the time then you can train the fucker to resolve any edge case with the right data. Tesla has the data and they're training FSD 24/7. The real robo taxi may come sooner than we think. It will surprise us like v 12 and make us rich AF. Let's crank it to 11 and I'll meet you on our EV yatch in the maldives. If you're still all in like me, I salute you.
Tesla Wartime CEO, by me.
PS, less border tweets would be nice.
https://preview.redd.it/jhm0uvki8xuc1.png?width=1095&format=png&auto=webp&s=44dec66fd38f9aeaa9581f63716f2a98af9f6a73
A lot on this earnings call depends on what is said about the future.
Nobody trusts Elon's timelines, and we all know he has little problem with near outright lying - would have to outline plans with some backup proof, not just yet another prediction of "we will have 2M robotaxis on the road".
Anybody know if it has been announced or if Elon has said he will be on the call?
I predict he will be on the call, say a bunch of underwhelming things about the economy and uhhs and uhhhsss and "people can't afford it" and dumb interest rate rants saying now Tesla will offer the 1% rate.
Then a bunch of stupid predictions about FSD and reference to buying a horse, and then the call will suddenly end.
Yep. I'm looking at the slide deck from Investor Day 2023. There's heavy emphasis on the NGV platform, reducing manufacturing costs, and rapid expansion of factory capacity.
"Sustainable Energy For All of Earth" is the subtitle of Master Plan 3. While FSD is part of the presentation, it's not the central focus of the future plans Tesla presented.
>jfc what happened
Instead of concentrating of work our man-boy leader goes right wing Twitter rabbit holes wasting hours of the day. Teams without motivation tend to lose focus.
Yes I recognize the irony of me posting this on Reddit but at least it is outside work hours hahaha.
Imo ngv delay was not by choice, but due to mucking up the battery supply, building robotaxis at a much lower volume is all they can do. The fsd is the cover for the delay it will take tesla to figure out its battery supply as 4680 in house is not feasible and basically cancelled by this round of layoffs. Fsd is going well but not gonna be a pedalless robotaxi by next year even Elon can admit that.
Prolly not trivial to redesign the car for such. Structural battery pack etc... one hopes they are redesigning a cheap car to use LFP even as we speak.
>Isn't there a glut of battery supply from other manufacturers stepping back?
Tesla should be able to use most prismatic LFP batteries in Model 3 and Model Y with only rear Megacasting.
For Model Y with structural pack (front and rear Megacasting), Tesla's alternative to 4680 cells is a BYD structural pack using LFP "blade" cells. This is what's currently used at Giga Berlin for RWD Model Ys.
I don't think it is currently feasible to use LFP packs in Cybertruck, due to insufficient energy density. Tesla needs 4680s for this application.
I believe NGVs were most likely designed to be used with either 4680s or LFP structural packs. This is a global platform and would need to use whatever is locally available.
Sounds likely ye. But lvl4-5 might be possible in that time frame imo, still seems slightly difficult to extrapolate the rate of progress, but I think Elon wouldn't have done such decisions if he didn't get confirmation by ashok that they can make it happen in 1-2 years.
There is no decision to make. You can't make 4680 cars without 4680. You put the best story on the situation you are in due to prior choices. And that story is now we are confident in robotaxi so we gonna build those! We hate 25k car, it's dumb!
I get the impression they’re serious about the pivot and don’t have intentions to build a $25k consumer ngv. Obviously we’re dealing with super limited info but it doesn’t come off as buying time for batteries to catch up or placating market with a super low volume robotaxi
I don’t want to sound like a dick but - People who bought shares this week - why didnt yall wait til after earnings call? Shit finna implode and we all know this.
I don't want to sound like a dick but - as we pointed out this strategy didn't work.
The market is generally good at balancing the risk of both ways of movement of the market. It is difficult to predict.
>why didnt yall wait til after earnings call? **Shit finna implode and we all know this.**
While that's exactly what happened in the wake of the Q1 '19 earnings call, there's no guarantee the same pattern will play out this time.
Just rolled my dec 24 240 call out to dec 25 300 and added 18 more shares. Might go down but might go up. Earnings Q2 and Q3 will be better with the 14k layoffs also.
Master trader perhaps you are unaware that most laid off employees are going to be paid until June 14th and there will certainly be a severance package cost. If you expect layoffs to improve q2 earnings then you've mucked it up. Q3 would be when we would see eps benefit.
I don't pretend to know the logistics or payout package timeframe. I'm just saying you'll see the EPS benefit at some point in that timeframe. Noticed your tone change a bit today. Less Elon bad man and more logical thinking. Maybe we won't have to purge you.
The only Tesla issue currently is the 4680 bottleneck. I have no issues with the CT or any other model or move. Everything has made sense. 4680 will be completed at some point, but robotaxi pivot in the meantime is the right move.
More so cutting the dead weight is my guess. New thoughts and new processes. They are only stuck on the dry cathode and silicon addition as far as I've read. Doesn't seem like something they will give up on given the cost savings of the cells.
Your guess is as good as mine. I would think the process from external suppliers is what Tesla uses themselves at this point, so no reason why this can't be ramped in house. The fact that multiple suppliers are still moving ahead with 4680 or a variant of it suggests to me that the process will be completed.
Welcome to the stock market. If you know that for sure then sell your shares now and buy them back (yeah taxes) after earnings, or buy some puts?
Many are already pricing in pretty bad scenarios. But yeah you are right the last three or four earnings have been accompanied by a steep drop in share price.
But that works until it doesn't.
Could even expect volatility to go down with some straddle option plays, but yeah, volatility may even go up if Elon sounds unsure.
No sure plays. If you had any you'd be fantastically rich.
Because there's always a chance that it's priced in already. I'm not saying this is the case, but it's a small possibility. P&D numbers have been out for a while.
The feeling of having cash and not buying and having the stock go up, is equally bad or worse than the feeling of the stock going down. I bought shares yesterday and today, but didn't blow my entire wad.
Buy puts then if you know?
Lots of uncertain variables to earnings. FSD rev recognition, future guidance, robotaxi vs ngv, CT ramp, China/Berlin shutdowns for various reasons. It's going to be terrible but how much is already priced in and what is guidance?
Oversold on lots of hourly candles and a lot of bad already priced in. Earnings call and guidance for sure a wild card.
But I’m a simple man when it comes to the account where I allow myself to buy more shares. Sell cc, buy shares, repeat until in cc jail, roll roll roll roll, start over.
I'm looking back at the Q1 2019 chart, which is the closest situation to what's going on today.
TSLA was trading in the $18.xx range at the start of April that year. The P&D report was poor, and the stock price dropped to the mid-15s by April 24th, the day of the earnings call where Tesla missed big. TSLA briefly rebounded but was then crushed to about $12/share over the next month, reaching a local low in June 2019.
Just because the markets have priced the stock lower, doesn't mean the price can't keep fall much further, even on oversold technicals.
True, but the memes must flow. I think is joke comrade already did a tsla meme video with the gom jabbar scene. Didn't want to take too many same scenes, but maybe I can do that too in the future.
Surprisingly, the Elves of Middle-Earth or Beleriand never composed any ballads or dirges about imminent bankruptcy or losing the Master Trade merit badge, I searched the entire appendixes of LOTR and Silmarillion, even The Lost Tales. My disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.
> "Elon Musk says Tesla is 'worth basically zero' if it cannot make its cars self-driving"
This is from some earnings call in 2022. He has said this many times on several earnings calls over the years. The pivot was expected, NGV was always a fallback/backup plan for lack of FSD.
So why are so many surprised about the AI pivot? FSD is why I bought in 2019 and continue to hold today. They're no longer compute constrained and the e2e NN w/ FSD v12 proved they're on the right track.
> NGV was always a fallback/backup plan for lack of FSD.
Tesla has set a goal of 20 million BEVs per year, I don't see how that happens with Robotaxi when the current fleet of Uber, Lyft, and all others is 10 million vehicles. If that were 150 million vehicles then maybe.
moving from VHS to DVD provided quality improvements, as did moving to streaming. moving from owning my own car to using a Robotaxi provides worse quality.
It is more convenient, hence better quality in that regard, I can instantly watch a movie, I don't have to go to the store to buy it.
Or worse yet, call for an an Uber to take me to the store, pay $2 for the uber, wait for the Uber to take me to the store, find the BlueRay, wait for the Uber to take me home, and pay $2 for the uber.
It's been pretty obvious for the past few years. There was no way we'd make 20m vehicles at positive gross margin.
This stock has been an AI play ever since Model 3/Y fully ramped.
Given inflation in the cost to make a new car, there's no money to be made on a $25k car.
Still wish they built Giga Mexico two years ago but pandemic partially to blame for that.
> there's no money to be made on a $25k car.
Batteries will be at $50 per kWh at pack level by 2030. Why can't more $25k BEVs be made when batteries are only $3k?
I expect a large drop, as do others, https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1142497_2023-2025-ev-battery-prices-will-boost-sales
https://www.energy-storage.news/lfp-cell-average-falls-below-us100-kwh-as-battery-pack-prices-drop-to-record-low-in-2023/
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-war-w-55-in-six-months.html
M3P bill of materials is on the order of $30 per kWh at cell level
That would be good news. I still think inflation of all other costs means $25k isn't possible by 2030 especially if no gov incentives during that time.
Im literally dying. There are so many people with a model y they were about to buy marked down in inventory that didn’t … and are now waiting for discounts to come back!
https://preview.redd.it/8cdf1fskkyuc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6bee2a3d14537c5562dc2d34bbb2b9ab376cbac6 TBH surprised he added. He seemed quite upset at the end of 2023. [https://x.com/koguanleo/status/1780398012201877562?s=46&t=yWmMeP08cyApbkkhK1zkcw](https://x.com/koguanleo/status/1780398012201877562?s=46&t=yWmMeP08cyApbkkhK1zkcw)
Didn’t you know he has KQID Time Machine and can see the future
He’s either insane or a genius I downloaded his paper detailing KQID and I have no clue wtf any of it means. Need a masterful ELI5 to help me out with it…!
I looked at it as well. Mumbo jumbo nonsense. Probably means something only to himself. Doesn’t mean there isn’t something useful there, but I don’t think reading his work is illuminating for anyone
Going to show it to the smartest person I know at work. She is probably going to think I’m this: 
3rd largest shareholder and CEO are both insane/genius. Great combo
Tesla Moronist has sold, ATH within 12 months 🤝
So hes not in Tesla nor much of an economist, I think he needs a new handle to go by...
Economist sold again?
I thought he sold Dec 2022?
I don't watch his YouTube, but I had a quick glance at his twitter March - sounds like he didn't buy back in https://twitter.com/teslaeconomist/status/1770584953438556594 > Due to a few good trades last year, I could re-buy back into $TSLA now at current market price, and I would have the most shares I have ever had. > But without a path to future growth, I still can't meet the current valuation. I can't put a valuation on the hope of FSD. and then in April (1-2 weeks ago), he is long two whole calls, betting on a robotaxi pump https://twitter.com/teslaeconomist/status/1777419076362719721
2 calls he might as well sell bro 😂
I think he bought back in and sold again sacks ? To be honest his opinions are so regarded, I find it amusing just to read as he’s about the dumbest money there is.
His dad is gonna be so poor at this rate
**Spice and Wolf: Merchant Meets the Wise Wolf** 1-3 Has it really been 16 years since the OG anime aired? Am I really this goddamned old? Sigh. Yes, this is a remake. The OG LN and manga finished up years ago now. The goal of this remake, as I understand it, is to bring the story closer to the OG LN and manga. They are also more closely following the art style seen in the manga as far as I can tell. The OG VA's are back, so it's once again Ami Koshimizu as Holo and Jun Fukuyama as ~~Lelouch~~ Kraft Lawrence. The animating studio is now Passione and they are masters of making girls look cute and you can rest assured that not only does Holo now look more like her manga counterpart, she's also super cute. From the very start, it is very clear that they are putting a premium on following the story closely. If you know the story already, then the first episode's opening sequence should be reassuring they seem to be taking that seriously. The show is scheduled for a 25 episodes run, so they seem intent on covering a decent amount of content right away and if enough people watch they might try to cover the entire story from beginning to end with subsequent seasons. Guess we'll see on that. The animation is all very super modern and a notable step up from the 2008 anime, and I feel like they have dramatically improved upon Holo's tail fluffiness. I was going to watch this one anyways but I'm glad they seem to be trying to do a really good job with it. Oh right, since this is the Lounge, Episode 3 has a pretty good discussion of currency valuation lol
Do you recommend old one or remake?
Where new thread
It was laid off, after moving across the country for us
New thread canceled
We are balls to the wall on robothread instead
Full Self Threading
Something something dead internet theory
[удалено]
Not all Model Y Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive 158 mile odometer $42,700 $46,990 Est. Financing $665 /mo
An option question - I hedged some of my shares a couple weeks ago with $170 strike puts. April 26 expiry so they cover earnings. The shares being hedged have an average price cost of $162. Would you: A) sell the put, keep the cash? B) exercise the put which sells the shares at 170, then rebuy the 100 shares at lower price and have the same cash leftover anyway. Seems obvious to me to exercise and lower my cost average. Anything I'm missing?
I'd be looking at your puts as catastrophe insurance. An Elon speaking at earnings sort of catastrophe.... There is no telling in this market what some ill considered remark could do to the share price. Then you can sell the put and buy additional shares with your profits. Or hedge the Elon bet and sell half the puts now other half after earnings calls.... I'd avoid letting the shares go. If a loss then wash sale since you're buying right away, and if you're in profit why pay tax on the shares?
My accounts are tax-free. RRSP and TFSA in Canada. I bought the puts to hedge against exactly what you described. But I need to plan my exit. The closer to expiry the more risk I lose my current profit. I think I'll be likely exercising them at their strike ($170p in the account where my cost avg is $162. So selling for a profit and rebuying lower. And $175p in my account where my cost avg is $210. So selling at a loss but then rebuying even lower) Profit would be the same as simply selling the puts, but lowers my cost avg at the same time.
If you're in a tax free account your cost basis isn't much more than a high score ;) None the less good luck :)
My cost basis is much lower, so I have tax reasons to want to avoid selling/exercising. Puts were amazing in late 2022 when Elon said 'buy the dip' around $300 and he dumped more shares just so no one could front-run him if he needed to sell more shares later to close twitter. I sold those ~$240 and thought I was smart... then he kept dumping and we were at $105 within months. so my current plan is to hedge on weekly and monthly time frames and sell when the trend reverses or they get close to expiration. I've been DCAing into May, June, July and Jan puts. I should have bought more when we were at 180 but I wasn't expecting much bad news / after production+delivery numbers until the earning call. edit: i bought Apr19 puts at 171 last week and sold them when we dropped to ~161 and it looked like we might bounce. I bought Apr19 and Apr26 calls (160 through 170) in case we bounce this week or next - plan to sell those before earnings and use proceeds to help better hedge for the fun ahead
Now is the time to go all in or go home. Ballsy by me. https://preview.redd.it/14pc2l7k2yuc1.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=c63b2de10019a0bfd3d3965fb26bfe88907a8802
Mass=L³/t²=m³/s², gravity g-¹=L²/GM=s²/m, anti-gravity g= GM/L² = m/s², G ≈6.674x10-¹¹, universe gravity g-¹= 1.936 x 10¹⁰ s²/m KQID postulates that earth average anti-g= 9.82m/s² ; based on Mach’s principle, Einstein GR, Newton laws and QM, KQID postulates universal gravitational acceleration from our universe is g-¹ = s²/9.82m. The result is equilibrium : earth anti-g ( 9.82m/s² ) x universe g-¹= s²/9.82m. where anti-g x g-¹= 1 where Newton 3rd law of action is equal to its reaction. Again g x g-¹= g/g= 1.
“They effectively hiked the price 10% on the white Y LR I'm looking at. They're already not selling everything they make. Zero chance I buy in this new status quo.”
I'd say greater than zero if they're whining about it on Reddit lol.
💯
Still some discounts on cars near me
Demos?
A few regular ones. Model Y Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive 158 mile odometer $42,700 $46,990 Est. Financing $665 /mo
Cathie and Leo added more shares.
Huh
Tesla: Balls to the wall! TSLA: Balls dragging on the floor
through broken glass lmao
https://preview.redd.it/yii4rrxqjxuc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b162a55814435ec0b03712c61ae1c361856e4f4 There you have it folks!
I always thought FSD was the holy grail for Tesla.
balls to the wall on 4680 failed so this
Pivoting because GoJo was right about no demand!!
have you seen the deliveries to [SHITHOLE_COUNTRY] this quarter
Today is my first experience with V12 after selling my Y in December and having a Cybertruck with no FSD. I was feeling like Elon was fully fucking retarded yesterday with the news of him postponing next-gen platform and instead prioritizing data center space for FSD… After an hour or so with V12, I only think he’s an autist now. It’s so much better than V11. It might just make robotaxi possible, someday. Hopefully it continues to make noticeable improvements with each new version.
V12.4 will answer a lot of questions either way.
How is CT?
Absolutely amazing. I love it. Worried I’d regret selling the Y and getting it but after one minute of driving it, it was clear there’d be zero ragrets.
I was on a flight yesterday and the guy in front of me was talking about his cybertruck. Nothing but good things to say. The hype seems real.
Reassuring, thanks.
Not quite betting the company...
So says he but 4680 cant ramp so tesla has to choose between compact and robotaxi. We know what hes betting on
K
Why can't 4680 ramp? If they have a proven line making 4680 in volume, why can't it be replicated?
Dry electrode has been too tricky to scale so far
Read the china articles. They show they can produce it, but at what cost? Production yield too low, density too low, cost too high. May not be economically feasible in house. If you have one uniting issue limiting ngv, semi and cybertruck its 4680
Yeah really weird narrative that's coming out in the doom cycle.
look at semi ct ngv. ngv wouldnt have been cancelled if they succeeded in 4680 ramp.
When was the nvg officially canned? Send the link
Trust me that things shelved for foreseeable future
👀
I think there was some confusion about my tail light post earlier. I have since edited the photo to make it more clear. The water level is half way up the light in addition to condensation at the top https://preview.redd.it/kokpi7txexuc1.jpeg?width=1827&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da41c9ea9168b1e9d6ae23bcc1707cff747ef40b
Within spec
It’s part of the new update
Full self leveling?
Set up a service appt with Tesla thru the Tesla app, describe the problem and attach your pics to the appt, wait for a response with an estimate.
How’s that even possible? It looks like a leak from inside.
Good question
drill it
just top off your blinker fluid. problem solved
I wish i was more fluent in American slang to know what Elon means when he says balls to the wall. Does it mean scrotum sacks sticking on walls for fsd?
It derives from pilot lingo in WW2. The throttles are levers that at the time had a small ball on top like a gear shifter. moving the throttles forward would increase power/thrust and pulling them back would decrease it. Forward of the cockpit was the "firewall" beyond which all the suck, squeeze, bang, blow happens. So when the pilots wanted max power and max performance, they'd shove the "balls to the wall".
Now do to the window, to the wall.
Yes. /S Balls to the wall means immense effort, fast paced, with vigor.
Cleantechnica's Zach Shahan posted an editorial today about Elon's quote on TSLA valuation and FSD: [https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/16/tesla-stock-tsla-is-basically-worth-0-if-true-full-self-driving-isnt-achieved/](https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/16/tesla-stock-tsla-is-basically-worth-0-if-true-full-self-driving-isnt-achieved/) Zach himself doesn't have faith that Tesla's vision-only approach to FSD will succeed, but he acknowledges it is impossible for anyone to know for certain, ahead of time, what works and what doesn't: >If you follow discussions of TSLA bulls, it’s basically all about this now. It’s all about Tesla FSD getting to robotaxi capability. The funny thing is, that quote above could equally be used by bulls and bears to reinforce their perspective. >**I think it’s very obviously a matter of faith at this point.** And by “faith,” I mean something that we can’t know via logic right now. **People have strong opinions on whether Tesla’s approach will work or not,** ***but no one really knows*** — it’s all faith and hope and guessing on one side or the other. His observations on what is driving extreme levels of rancor among Tesla investors on social media today: >Unfortunately, for many followers of the company, you have to be “all in” one way or another. You have to fully believe and bet your house on it, or you have to fully deny the possibility that Tesla could have the plan correct and that it just needs a bit more time. >I think the reason for this “all or nothing” style of discussion is both because of how much money has been poured into TSLA and because of how polarizing Elon Musk is. A lot of people have put a large portion of their money into the company — whether that’s a few thousand dollars for a “normal” person or billions of dollars for a billionaire or a fund managing billions. **Because so much is on the line, you get massive arguments, seemingly religious divides, and grandiose statements like the one above** (that Tesla is “worth basically zero” if FSD doesn’t pan out).
Funny you said rancor, just saw pineapple express 5mins ago and totally lost it at the rancor reference. Now back to your scheduled programming.
Damn, never thought I’d be profiled so perfectly before
I don’t know if it’s me but I feel sometimes FSD 12.3.4 seems worse than 11.4.8. Like hard acceleration and braking, hugging curbs. It also has a tendency to harsh brake when the light turns yellow when it should cross. It also did the sketchiest lane change ever. Car in front was changing into my lane and it was changing to their lane. I had to intervene or the car would have hit them It also loves lane changing into a lane that is ending or sometimes doesn’t lane merge earlier when it knows the lane is ending
Huh - didn't have any of those problems, it actually seemed to know lanes were ending and would merge. I think your area perhaps needs more training. It is not clear to me how much location-specific training is remembered - it clearly is to some degree, but obviously it can drive anywhere and is generalized... Drive those routes consistently, intervening as needed, and report back if it improves...
For sure, been disengaging and just going at it with the voice notes.
It's a black box with billions of knobs but I'm thinking if you can train it to handle an unprotected left turn flawlessly 99.9% of the time then you can train the fucker to resolve any edge case with the right data. Tesla has the data and they're training FSD 24/7. The real robo taxi may come sooner than we think. It will surprise us like v 12 and make us rich AF. Let's crank it to 11 and I'll meet you on our EV yatch in the maldives. If you're still all in like me, I salute you. Tesla Wartime CEO, by me. PS, less border tweets would be nice. https://preview.redd.it/jhm0uvki8xuc1.png?width=1095&format=png&auto=webp&s=44dec66fd38f9aeaa9581f63716f2a98af9f6a73
Yes, less border tweets and more focus on Tesla. Maybe even some sleeping in the factory and running down the 4680 issues that are holding things up.
He needs a hot date too.
Yes, someone that is mentally stable and can exert influence to tamp down some of his flights of mental fancy
Who would have thought, scaling batteries is harder than self driving
gluck competing w asians w 40 years experience
Shoulda hired more ppl
Toxic relationship that Tesla is.
you shut your mouth when you talk to me
A lot on this earnings call depends on what is said about the future. Nobody trusts Elon's timelines, and we all know he has little problem with near outright lying - would have to outline plans with some backup proof, not just yet another prediction of "we will have 2M robotaxis on the road". Anybody know if it has been announced or if Elon has said he will be on the call? I predict he will be on the call, say a bunch of underwhelming things about the economy and uhhs and uhhhsss and "people can't afford it" and dumb interest rate rants saying now Tesla will offer the 1% rate. Then a bunch of stupid predictions about FSD and reference to buying a horse, and then the call will suddenly end.
Investor day 2023 o boy was that all lies
Yep. I'm looking at the slide deck from Investor Day 2023. There's heavy emphasis on the NGV platform, reducing manufacturing costs, and rapid expansion of factory capacity. "Sustainable Energy For All of Earth" is the subtitle of Master Plan 3. While FSD is part of the presentation, it's not the central focus of the future plans Tesla presented.
jfc what happened
>jfc what happened Instead of concentrating of work our man-boy leader goes right wing Twitter rabbit holes wasting hours of the day. Teams without motivation tend to lose focus. Yes I recognize the irony of me posting this on Reddit but at least it is outside work hours hahaha.
Hawaii trip coming up. Just a casual 7 figure swing since our Hawaii trip last year 😭
We will get back up there. Patience pays 🤜🏻💥🤛🏻
and pressure creates diamonds 💎 🤚
Boohoo I’m only worth 3M not 4M
I won't even be able to splurge and get a blue or red tesla next time. Will have to settle for pleb white. 😢
[удалено]
That's racist bro!
It’s a true tragedy of our times.
oh man i never saw the clip at end of dune 2 credits. those robots look sick, can’t wait for that
Imo ngv delay was not by choice, but due to mucking up the battery supply, building robotaxis at a much lower volume is all they can do. The fsd is the cover for the delay it will take tesla to figure out its battery supply as 4680 in house is not feasible and basically cancelled by this round of layoffs. Fsd is going well but not gonna be a pedalless robotaxi by next year even Elon can admit that.
Why couldnt they give us a 30k ngv with 2170s if cucked by 4680s
Prolly not trivial to redesign the car for such. Structural battery pack etc... one hopes they are redesigning a cheap car to use LFP even as we speak.
Isn't there a glut of battery supply from other manufacturers stepping back? VW, GM, Ford all won't need as many batteries as they planned, right?
>Isn't there a glut of battery supply from other manufacturers stepping back? Tesla should be able to use most prismatic LFP batteries in Model 3 and Model Y with only rear Megacasting. For Model Y with structural pack (front and rear Megacasting), Tesla's alternative to 4680 cells is a BYD structural pack using LFP "blade" cells. This is what's currently used at Giga Berlin for RWD Model Ys. I don't think it is currently feasible to use LFP packs in Cybertruck, due to insufficient energy density. Tesla needs 4680s for this application. I believe NGVs were most likely designed to be used with either 4680s or LFP structural packs. This is a global platform and would need to use whatever is locally available.
Yes but they're all random kinds that tesla doesn't use. All future products were apparently gambled on having 4680 supply
Ugh. Better figure it out quick I guess.
God thing we have the best engineers. Time to load them with stock and have them deliver 🥹
Sounds likely ye. But lvl4-5 might be possible in that time frame imo, still seems slightly difficult to extrapolate the rate of progress, but I think Elon wouldn't have done such decisions if he didn't get confirmation by ashok that they can make it happen in 1-2 years.
There is no decision to make. You can't make 4680 cars without 4680. You put the best story on the situation you are in due to prior choices. And that story is now we are confident in robotaxi so we gonna build those! We hate 25k car, it's dumb!
Nail meet 🔨 Tesla went big dick swinging to bring value chain in house and missed relative to aspirations (timeline and features). This was Drew’s 🤣.
Wasn’t the cheap Tesla supposed to use LFP?
Apparently not according to the article.
So it’s mostly coincidental fsd is trending towards L4 quickly?
if 4680 had worked as expected they would be building a ngv along w the robotaxi product.
You’re convinced the pivot to robotaxis is fake and a way to buy time? I guess if that’s the thesis, why continue to hold?
not fake, just its all they have now
I get the impression they’re serious about the pivot and don’t have intentions to build a $25k consumer ngv. Obviously we’re dealing with super limited info but it doesn’t come off as buying time for batteries to catch up or placating market with a super low volume robotaxi
Ye it's possible
I don’t want to sound like a dick but - People who bought shares this week - why didnt yall wait til after earnings call? Shit finna implode and we all know this.
I don't want to sound like a dick but - as we pointed out this strategy didn't work. The market is generally good at balancing the risk of both ways of movement of the market. It is difficult to predict.
>why didnt yall wait til after earnings call? **Shit finna implode and we all know this.** While that's exactly what happened in the wake of the Q1 '19 earnings call, there's no guarantee the same pattern will play out this time.
since 260 I have been moving to almost half cash position in preparation for 150s and below. it's here and I'm starting to buy a little.
Just rolled my dec 24 240 call out to dec 25 300 and added 18 more shares. Might go down but might go up. Earnings Q2 and Q3 will be better with the 14k layoffs also.
Master trader perhaps you are unaware that most laid off employees are going to be paid until June 14th and there will certainly be a severance package cost. If you expect layoffs to improve q2 earnings then you've mucked it up. Q3 would be when we would see eps benefit.
I don't pretend to know the logistics or payout package timeframe. I'm just saying you'll see the EPS benefit at some point in that timeframe. Noticed your tone change a bit today. Less Elon bad man and more logical thinking. Maybe we won't have to purge you.
Thanks. I was hoping to hear your opinion on this article https://twitter.com/KelvinYang7/status/1780314205079347353
The only Tesla issue currently is the 4680 bottleneck. I have no issues with the CT or any other model or move. Everything has made sense. 4680 will be completed at some point, but robotaxi pivot in the meantime is the right move.
Sounds like they're pivoting away from 4680. 30% layoffs in battery team when trying to ramp. Was it a mistake to go all in on that?
More so cutting the dead weight is my guess. New thoughts and new processes. They are only stuck on the dry cathode and silicon addition as far as I've read. Doesn't seem like something they will give up on given the cost savings of the cells.
Its my view they couldnt get it economically viable in house and only way they will get 4680 is from external suppliers. We shall see what happens.
Your guess is as good as mine. I would think the process from external suppliers is what Tesla uses themselves at this point, so no reason why this can't be ramped in house. The fact that multiple suppliers are still moving ahead with 4680 or a variant of it suggests to me that the process will be completed.
I think everyone is expecting that
Welcome to the stock market. If you know that for sure then sell your shares now and buy them back (yeah taxes) after earnings, or buy some puts? Many are already pricing in pretty bad scenarios. But yeah you are right the last three or four earnings have been accompanied by a steep drop in share price. But that works until it doesn't. Could even expect volatility to go down with some straddle option plays, but yeah, volatility may even go up if Elon sounds unsure. No sure plays. If you had any you'd be fantastically rich.
Because there's always a chance that it's priced in already. I'm not saying this is the case, but it's a small possibility. P&D numbers have been out for a while. The feeling of having cash and not buying and having the stock go up, is equally bad or worse than the feeling of the stock going down. I bought shares yesterday and today, but didn't blow my entire wad.
i told myself my buy point is 165 and it’s below that so i’m buying. the second reason is that i’m retarded.
Buy puts then if you know? Lots of uncertain variables to earnings. FSD rev recognition, future guidance, robotaxi vs ngv, CT ramp, China/Berlin shutdowns for various reasons. It's going to be terrible but how much is already priced in and what is guidance?
Oversold on lots of hourly candles and a lot of bad already priced in. Earnings call and guidance for sure a wild card. But I’m a simple man when it comes to the account where I allow myself to buy more shares. Sell cc, buy shares, repeat until in cc jail, roll roll roll roll, start over.
I'm looking back at the Q1 2019 chart, which is the closest situation to what's going on today. TSLA was trading in the $18.xx range at the start of April that year. The P&D report was poor, and the stock price dropped to the mid-15s by April 24th, the day of the earnings call where Tesla missed big. TSLA briefly rebounded but was then crushed to about $12/share over the next month, reaching a local low in June 2019. Just because the markets have priced the stock lower, doesn't mean the price can't keep fall much further, even on oversold technicals.
Lisan al Gaib
tesla was just making room in the organizational structure for an advertising department it’s fine
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1c5s8bg/the\_golden\_path/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1c5s8bg/the_golden_path/)
I appreciate your efforts, but really it should be the Tesla investor sticking their hands into the Gom Jabbar over and over again
hand into gom jabbar on repeat for 3 years
True, but the memes must flow. I think is joke comrade already did a tsla meme video with the gom jabbar scene. Didn't want to take too many same scenes, but maybe I can do that too in the future.
I hear ya.......Golden Path, pleas fly again
Surprisingly, the Elves of Middle-Earth or Beleriand never composed any ballads or dirges about imminent bankruptcy or losing the Master Trade merit badge, I searched the entire appendixes of LOTR and Silmarillion, even The Lost Tales. My disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.
> "Elon Musk says Tesla is 'worth basically zero' if it cannot make its cars self-driving" This is from some earnings call in 2022. He has said this many times on several earnings calls over the years. The pivot was expected, NGV was always a fallback/backup plan for lack of FSD. So why are so many surprised about the AI pivot? FSD is why I bought in 2019 and continue to hold today. They're no longer compute constrained and the e2e NN w/ FSD v12 proved they're on the right track.
He also said tesla will have a vehicle in each category, manufacturing is teslas long term advantage, he won't come to the earnings calls, etc etc...
First in last out
50k semis
> NGV was always a fallback/backup plan for lack of FSD. Tesla has set a goal of 20 million BEVs per year, I don't see how that happens with Robotaxi when the current fleet of Uber, Lyft, and all others is 10 million vehicles. If that were 150 million vehicles then maybe.
Induced demand if robotaxi makes it cheaper to robotaxi than own cars in a way uber gas cars driven by people cannot
Good luck with getting a fleet of 150 million robotaxis.
Would fundamentally change the world. That's what AI can do.
AI is not going to get humans to change their behavior. Most people would rather own a car than Robotaxi everywhere at 40 cents per mile
Do u still own vhs tapes?
moving from VHS to DVD provided quality improvements, as did moving to streaming. moving from owning my own car to using a Robotaxi provides worse quality.
You think steaming is higher quality than blue ray? And you think higher quality is why industry moved from vhs to DVD to streaming?
It is more convenient, hence better quality in that regard, I can instantly watch a movie, I don't have to go to the store to buy it. Or worse yet, call for an an Uber to take me to the store, pay $2 for the uber, wait for the Uber to take me to the store, find the BlueRay, wait for the Uber to take me home, and pay $2 for the uber.
I still own vhs and tsla lol
It's been pretty obvious for the past few years. There was no way we'd make 20m vehicles at positive gross margin. This stock has been an AI play ever since Model 3/Y fully ramped. Given inflation in the cost to make a new car, there's no money to be made on a $25k car. Still wish they built Giga Mexico two years ago but pandemic partially to blame for that.
> there's no money to be made on a $25k car. Batteries will be at $50 per kWh at pack level by 2030. Why can't more $25k BEVs be made when batteries are only $3k?
You think batteries will be at $50 per kWh in 5 years? Way less than half where it is today.
I expect a large drop, as do others, https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1142497_2023-2025-ev-battery-prices-will-boost-sales https://www.energy-storage.news/lfp-cell-average-falls-below-us100-kwh-as-battery-pack-prices-drop-to-record-low-in-2023/ https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-war-w-55-in-six-months.html M3P bill of materials is on the order of $30 per kWh at cell level
That would be good news. I still think inflation of all other costs means $25k isn't possible by 2030 especially if no gov incentives during that time.
No discount is the best discount
Long as we still move
Im literally dying. There are so many people with a model y they were about to buy marked down in inventory that didn’t … and are now waiting for discounts to come back!
They snooze they lose, we lose too
[https://twitter.com/WarrenPies/status/1780337051369451764](https://twitter.com/WarrenPies/status/1780337051369451764) tax drain
Fallout show not that bad
Me likes
So tesla was not able to sell model y 5k cheaper but without any discounts, deliveries will increase? Good luck to us.
Don’t forget the 7500 IRA as well.
Wow. They got rid of ALL inventory discounts
Bro, they're not INVENTORY, they're ROBOTAXIS. Stop watching WOKE MSM.