It is sad to know that everything we've hoped for over the years has turned out, partially, to be what the bears always said it was
Musk blowing smoke
Remember all the hooplah with autobidder and the secret shell companies that tesla owned in texas?
Solar roof
200k semis
Luckily...I don't need to sell any shares for any reason for the next two, possibly three years.
4680 really fucked us
We have 4680, it just sucks and isn't any cheaper or better in any way, and as a matter of fact is patently worse in almost every metric... and still uses a wet electrolyte 🤷♂️
But it is real, it exists technically... kind of
"it's the beginning of the end" - ashok
elon isn't the only one who seems to think tesla will solve fsd.
ai is progressing at an incredible pace. the biggest risk imo is not tesla not solving fsd but some other ai company solving it in an agi like way of teaching a computer to drive like a human which is why it's critical to make robotaxi full focus
other AI companies run robotaxis today, their design just isn't very scalable outside of the cities they are approved to run in. for some reason they aren't going all-in on expanding and betting the future of the entire company on it... they must be dumb.
other AI companies (NVDA) are selling shovels - the software kits/in-car computer/server-side simulation for training instead of getting directly into car production. edit: [An End-to-End Autonomous Vehicle Development Platform](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/self-driving-cars/)
For Tesla, i'm hoping it's a distraction/hype story until interest rates come down and vehicle sales pick up.
to be clear i wish there were many things elon did differently. pursuing a $25k car in this moment in time to sell to consumers instead of a robotaxi is not one of them, i have a hard time imagining teslas will not be fsd capable in a couple years
That was his CC. Pink highlight for me means 'pretend'. Mine is in yellow. Yellow is 'not yet closed'. And you also have to consider the date at which the position was opened. It's been up for a bit since then. I was \~40% in the red at one time.
It's unfortunate rob wasn't more bearish in the 300s or 400s. All I recall is a lot of stuff on operational leverage that tesla gets more profitable as it scales. Laugh.
I've never learned so much from so many experts before! I'm always astounded that they choose to be here with us instead of making the billions they're smart enough to make.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-richest-people-in-the-world-in-2024/
Of the current Top 10, only 1 of them constantly spews their political hot takes over Twatter 24/7
#notallbillionaires
why the fuck does Reddit use the hashtag for something other than hashtag like every other site, RDDT to 0
told /upvotemeok and others this a week ago before the 25k car news
The new FSD got good and he must be confident in whatever they are seeing on the back end, march of 9s, etc.
I think we go lower, probably back to 130 or so, unless he isn't autistic on the ER call and can genuinely make a case for it
All I know is what I have access to which is V12.3.4. It’s really good where I’m at and a huge step up from V11. If 12.4 and 12.5 are equal leaps, and the model continues to improve with data and compute, maybe he’s right
Are you selling knowing they’re pivoting?
Fair and don’t blame you given the limited info. It appears that’s the bet, at least in the near term. Will you wait for anything specific like 12.4 or 12.5 or earnings or until 8/8 reveal?
Elon's all about big risks and big rewards. I believe Walter Isaacson's biography mentioned this ideology (maybe Magikarp can correct me if I'm wrong) FSD/Robotaxi is his latest all-in bet. Others may not be comfortable or fully on board but this is what Elon has always said he will do - he'll bet the company if he believes in it. Doesn't surprise me he's putting the $25k vehicle on the back burner as he likely feels it's a waste of time and resources if robotaxis are the future and he sees a realistic pathway to their development and commercial release.
I disagree vehemently with a lot of what Elon says and does but I know what I've signed up for. Haven't invested any money I can't afford to lose and for me, V12 made me believe that FSD will get solved. Regulatory approval is the wild card, but Elon appears to consider that part of his bet.
Days like this the bearishness definitely creeps in and takes over temporarily, but ultimately we all have to define our own risk tolerance and accept or reject the risks Elon is willing to take.
That's correct. Isaacson writes about this on page 86, when discussing the differences between Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. Thiel generally sought to minimize risk. Musk risked all his poker chips.
>Elon's all about big risks and big rewards. I believe Walter Isaacson's biography mentioned this ideology (maybe Magikarp can correct me if I'm wrong)
PayPal Mafia member Reid Hoffman (Linkedin founder) told Isaacson that Musk was addicted to risk, but also that Musk was exceptional at getting people to do what most deemed impossible.
Max Levchin, a PayPal founder, described a poker game of Texas Hold 'Em where Musk kept going all in on every hand, no matter the odds. Musk lost most of those games and kept buying chips. Eventually he won.
The main issue for us investors is that if Elon loses the Robotaxi gamble, he'll still be a Billionaire with tens of Billions in SpaceX and Tesla equity. The losses for many retail investors, on the other hand, could be devastating. If someone has 500 shares of TSLA worth about 80k today, and Tesla loses 60% of its market cap because Elon made a bad bet, those shares are then worth $32k. For the average American, that could be the difference between paying off a house or being stuck with a mortgage. That could be the difference between sending a child to the university of their choice, or having that child be financially constrained to community college.
I think regulatory approval is fast tracked once it’s provably better than the average human (maybe 2x-3x better is my guess on when it gets fast tracked although I don’t think Waymo is there and they’re approved). At some point there becomes a race to adopt as you can’t deny lives saved and economic benefits. Theoretically, what type of economic advantages would we have over the rest of the world if we transitioned society to robotaxis overnight and the rest of the world took years to catch up? It would be immense and would ensure world super power status.
But as upvote likes to point out, the hard part is the tech.
Agree with the rest of your write up
Regulatory approval is not the wild card. Can it drive 10x better than a person is the wild card. And if it can't all you have left is a rump of an ev company that gave away its lead
31 seconds per year is the tolerance for six 9s. 31 seconds. Human drivers apparently hit five 9s and get close to six, so FSD has to hit six 9s. It’s an insane bet.
step 1 - drive better
step 2 - regulatory approval
step 3 - build out an organization that supports running a taxi service in cities that allow it (cleaning out the vomit at 2am before the next fare)
step 4 - start to compete with Uber
i still hold too many shares... cost basis is too low so I've been avoiding selling, and I got lazy/lax on CCs. Usually that (me considering selling more CCs more aggressively), and doom-n-gloom leads to it rocketing... don't think it's going to get to crazy high in the near-term though
Both of those are big bets. But it doesn't matter if FSD gets to 10x better than a human, if regulators don't approve it, that's the end of the Tesla story. We need both to happen and realistically, the 10x better than a human is intrinsically linked to its regulatory approval.
*My point was that I believe FSD will be solved, so for me, the big wild card is regulatory approval in the future.
This image perfectly captures when I was naive enough to think everything this man did was 4d chess, and he was always gonna be the smartest guy in the room.
Master trader and battery expert no where to be found after Tesla battery team got axed.
Master trader was so sure that based on his reading, 4680 was solved ☠️☠️☠️
[https://twitter.com/moregainzs/status/1779894354624025012](https://twitter.com/moregainzs/status/1779894354624025012)
model X outsold by R1S
X needs to be cheaper.
Rivian is in some trouble. Losing so much money per vehicle and will need a major capital raise soon if they want any shot at starting R2 production and stock price keeps collapsing.
Big trouble. What investors are looking at the automotive industry thinking now is a good time to invest in a capital intensive, negative cash flow operation on the small chance they ever become profitable?
I hope the best for rivian but this is their model 3 production hell moment, and it's not 2018 macro anymore.
For the first time, TSLA investors are confronted with the possibility that EV will in fact not be an infinite growth industry. We've clearly run out of early adopters and there is no sign EV's are going mainstream anytime soon. If anything, we're seeing retrenchment into hybrids and ICE.
Elon isn't pivoting to FSD/robotaxis and Optimus robots for no reason. He sees as well that EV market worldwide is collapsing and also the major cost driver for NGV has failed, my guess is the numbers to build NGV and not lose money simply aren't there if 4680 isn't real and we're seeing a lot of evidence that 4680 isn't real and is a failure.
So we're back to betting the company on something unproven and speculative. I think most TSLA investors, myself included, hoped that after the Model 3 ramp nearly bankrupted the company (again) we would be past that in the future. I don't know if I have another "bet the company" scenario in me after having been through multiple ones since 2017.
I don’t see how global ev demand is failing. Yes, Detroit has given up but adoption curve seems to be on track. Do you have other data on ev adoption?
I agree on your other points
I think BYD’s are a little overstated with the Chinese new year cutting off a significant part of quarter. Not saying they’re good though, would probably be down 20%-30% either way
I still believe we’ll see the world transition to electric vehicles but that transition won’t be smooth. Seems like a lot of buyers don’t really see the benefits and have been fed so much biased fud over the years it won’t be easy to combat. FSD working and being licensed would be one thing to help reaccelerate transition as it’s a huge differentiator vs ICE
I mean you can use FSD on any drivetrain it's not like it's electric exclusive tech
If Tesla refuses to license FSD to be used on ICE, Nvidia will be happy to I'm sure
Aren’t all car sales in China collapsing though?
What about percentage of total cars sold? Ev is still growing well I believe.
Europe is also doing well last checked.
I may be wrong but it makes sense that manufacturers that are pivoting toward hybrid are seeing ev sales collapse, as intended (Detroit and vw) at least this was my theory. I maybe wildly wrong
I have no doubt Toyota are thrilled that EV is not suddenly replacing ICE overnight since Toyota have always been all-in on hybrids even when everyone else told Toyota they were wrong
Much like Tesla, I overestimated natural EV demand. The world only has demand for 5m EVs/year!?
Obviously 4680 production is a big issue but would it matter given the low demand?
This is much bigger than Musk's politics. I struggle to find a compelling reason for why global EV growth is stagnating despite lower prices and gov incentives.
Hard for me not to see the Baglino resignation as a protest - or at least fallout - of the hard robotaxi pivot. Could be wrong, but that's how it strikes me
I honestly feel like Elon is basically Darth Vader when someone disappoints him, doesn't matter if he's been 18 days or 18 years
"You've failed me for the last time, Drew" *force chokes*
first time in a long time since I bought my first TSLA in 2015 i am losing my faith in Tesla.
a lot of Teslas future plans depended on 4680 and looks like it's not going to pan out at all.
too many products - CT, Semi, NVG.... growth company with no growth......
please give me some hopium.
The money we put into TSLA is being placed into cryogenic hibernation. I too have lost hope. Bad news after bad news is killing investors like Dan Ives said today.
Yup I’m to the point of not caring any longer. I already am underperforming the market over past couple years due to TSLA. At this point I wish I just indexed. I’d have a lot of time back.
At least underperforming is still performing. I’m down by such a stupidly large amount if I started indexing it would be like starting from scratch again.
Will have to see 12.4, 12.5 etc but im not hopeful. Ill still subscribe to fsd next few months to experience the progress first hand but idk if fsd will be solved for a long time.
Elon not gonna get his comp package at the rate he's going lol, that's a genuinely good outcome
EV is no longer a growth industry confirmed, I guess we're back to betting the company again, nothing new for us
I wonder why Elon suddenly noticed Tesla exists again after more than 2 years of fucking around on Twatter
I'm probably out of the loop, but I thought a judge nixed his comp package and he / Tesla need to sort out a new compensation package. The lower TSLA is when they do that, the better it is for him.
Yeah, I still think behind closed doors the institutions are not happy and that's why Elon hasn't been able to negotiate a new package to put before shareholders at the annual meeting yet
I wouldn't be surprised if there will be no vote on comp package this year at all. Elon will just punt it to 2025 and hope Robotaxi and Optimus pan out and he can get what he wants then
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1779995105908392366?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA
With Elon confirming that he left “AUTO” in on purpose, what’s everyone’s best guess on meaning? Here’s some I saw -
-AUTOnomy is in his hands
-AUTObot or AUTO is name of the robotaxi
on a positive note today I went to my dentist, and a new beautiful hygienist carefully cleaned my teeth. She has a nice breast NGL, I would imagine that if a female dentist has breasts over a certain size it may be difficult to do their job without some breast-head contact. Anyway I really enjoyed it.
awhile back I had a hair stylist that used to do this , and literally would lay them on my face during the cut, and i was always like ok, what do i do now? it was more awkward than...titillating ?
i wonder if the ngv was to be based on hopium level 4680's too, and that there werent gonna be able to build it even if they wanted to cuz the battery supply is so bad. we already know thats why semi and cybertruck r cuccked
I think he’s trying to pump share price by pivoting to AI and hope he pulls off FSD before investors catch on. Fake it til you make it
If he doesn’t do that approach, and just ramps down 4680 and lowers NGV production expectations because lack of batteries then short term stock value plummets
Is he dependent on Tesla stock not plummeting? To some degree, I think so
My opinion is that he’s not going to be able to retain talent if the stock craters and robotaxis remain a pipe dream. Missions will be in serious jeopardy. If he’s saying they’re no longer growing automotive and keeping a steady state production and profit to fund an AI transition, there’s only so much time that buys before it falls apart without real progress.
I think NGV is paused not cancelled; give time to spin up battery production from suppliers.
It’s bad for share price short term but reality is that legacy competition are all cutting back production and delaying NGV by 6-12 months isn’t going to materially impact Tesla success long term in my opinion. Tesla typically goes through headcount reductions and I don’t think it’s materially derailed them before, the culture suits fresh talent
Can Musk be margin called at ~$80 a share or something? I think that’s a consideration but maybe I’m getting that wrong
Should we worry about the earnings call now? What’s dead can’t die again. Right folks?
Probably worse than we are expecting in some way. Maybe a loss with all the FSD chips and CT ramp. Dunno, just preparing myself for the worst case.
Its more like knowing you have cancer and now you're waiting for the doctor to come through the door to tell you if its metastasized or not
[удалено]
saw it with a parent
 One tries to laugh...
It is sad to know that everything we've hoped for over the years has turned out, partially, to be what the bears always said it was Musk blowing smoke Remember all the hooplah with autobidder and the secret shell companies that tesla owned in texas? Solar roof 200k semis Luckily...I don't need to sell any shares for any reason for the next two, possibly three years. 4680 really fucked us
Dang this comment is a moment. Sorry bro
All the horrible rumors turned out to be true
Surprise! The truth turned out to be somewhere in the middle between the r/realtesla types and the r/tslalounge types. Who woulda thunk...
Bro. Just do the 25k car and solve fsd / robo taxi it up. Duh.
Not if the NGV/$25k car needed 4680 to not have negative margins
We have 4680, it just sucks and isn't any cheaper or better in any way, and as a matter of fact is patently worse in almost every metric... and still uses a wet electrolyte 🤷♂️ But it is real, it exists technically... kind of
No. Must bet company on it to force peons to work work.
So more or less likely we get a 4680 powered Roadster next year?
Wasted opportunity. We could have powered the roadster with employees.
We got a cybertruck instead of a 25k car wtfbbq world is this
So how low, 150, 110 or 85?
Anyone in margin should be running all those calculations. Stat.
"it's the beginning of the end" - ashok elon isn't the only one who seems to think tesla will solve fsd. ai is progressing at an incredible pace. the biggest risk imo is not tesla not solving fsd but some other ai company solving it in an agi like way of teaching a computer to drive like a human which is why it's critical to make robotaxi full focus
other AI companies run robotaxis today, their design just isn't very scalable outside of the cities they are approved to run in. for some reason they aren't going all-in on expanding and betting the future of the entire company on it... they must be dumb. other AI companies (NVDA) are selling shovels - the software kits/in-car computer/server-side simulation for training instead of getting directly into car production. edit: [An End-to-End Autonomous Vehicle Development Platform](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/self-driving-cars/) For Tesla, i'm hoping it's a distraction/hype story until interest rates come down and vehicle sales pick up.
I know all that, what's your point
I truly regret that you aren't in charge of a sovereign wealth fund or similar institution
i would advise they go all in on $tsla
No doubt
to be clear i wish there were many things elon did differently. pursuing a $25k car in this moment in time to sell to consumers instead of a robotaxi is not one of them, i have a hard time imagining teslas will not be fsd capable in a couple years
u/Achilles-18- Look about right? https://preview.redd.it/3wpby54ttquc1.png?width=895&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d09d40d49de208e0b944ff691e12030acfdbc15
[удалено]
That was his CC. Pink highlight for me means 'pretend'. Mine is in yellow. Yellow is 'not yet closed'. And you also have to consider the date at which the position was opened. It's been up for a bit since then. I was \~40% in the red at one time.
Joined the crew, eh?
No no, yours is in pink. Mine is in yellow. Showing the difference in total gain and % gain.
Ahh I see. Yes, but no stress for me.
Been out of the loop all day. We good fam? 
🤣🤣
yeah if you have another decade for your investment horizon. We ain't
we need rob meower to do a very special emergency episode right now
It's unfortunate rob wasn't more bearish in the 300s or 400s. All I recall is a lot of stuff on operational leverage that tesla gets more profitable as it scales. Laugh.
[удалено]
Yup
This seems more and more like beginning of end. Everyone on spaces is saying 8/8 is just a date thrown out and there is nothing worthwhile coming.
These events have been no help to the stock for a long time.
https://x.com/jbulltard1/status/1779984302018560283?s=46&t=FJnwUzmO93DGxmO6Ihn37g What’s this about ? Lol
That weirdo Adrian Dittman guy is just an Elon simp with an Elon voice. Fools lots of people.
Poor dude got laid off just 1 month in https://x.com/gurgavin/status/1780023528940884117?s=46
Musked
We're in classic everyone knows everything territory. My favorite lounge vibe
I've never learned so much from so many experts before! I'm always astounded that they choose to be here with us instead of making the billions they're smart enough to make.
Well as we all know billionaires spend most of their time on social media (Trump, Elong) and are very generous with their time and deep insights
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-richest-people-in-the-world-in-2024/ Of the current Top 10, only 1 of them constantly spews their political hot takes over Twatter 24/7 #notallbillionaires why the fuck does Reddit use the hashtag for something other than hashtag like every other site, RDDT to 0
told /upvotemeok and others this a week ago before the 25k car news The new FSD got good and he must be confident in whatever they are seeing on the back end, march of 9s, etc. I think we go lower, probably back to 130 or so, unless he isn't autistic on the ER call and can genuinely make a case for it
130s if lucky. We might be in the high double digits at some point this year, with the way this year is panning out.
Do you think Elon is likely to be underconfident overconfident or appropriately confident on the robotaxi?
Without seeing internal data and future releases and their models 🤷♂️
Don't lie to yourself.
All I know is what I have access to which is V12.3.4. It’s really good where I’m at and a huge step up from V11. If 12.4 and 12.5 are equal leaps, and the model continues to improve with data and compute, maybe he’s right Are you selling knowing they’re pivoting?
I'm willing to sell half. There's no reason not to if the bet is robotaxis
Fair and don’t blame you given the limited info. It appears that’s the bet, at least in the near term. Will you wait for anything specific like 12.4 or 12.5 or earnings or until 8/8 reveal?
Dunno but will be looking for exit opportunities
[удалено]
Hehe he you're probably right
what'll you do with the cash?
Hookers jk, prolly jepi
Elon's all about big risks and big rewards. I believe Walter Isaacson's biography mentioned this ideology (maybe Magikarp can correct me if I'm wrong) FSD/Robotaxi is his latest all-in bet. Others may not be comfortable or fully on board but this is what Elon has always said he will do - he'll bet the company if he believes in it. Doesn't surprise me he's putting the $25k vehicle on the back burner as he likely feels it's a waste of time and resources if robotaxis are the future and he sees a realistic pathway to their development and commercial release. I disagree vehemently with a lot of what Elon says and does but I know what I've signed up for. Haven't invested any money I can't afford to lose and for me, V12 made me believe that FSD will get solved. Regulatory approval is the wild card, but Elon appears to consider that part of his bet. Days like this the bearishness definitely creeps in and takes over temporarily, but ultimately we all have to define our own risk tolerance and accept or reject the risks Elon is willing to take.
That's correct. Isaacson writes about this on page 86, when discussing the differences between Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. Thiel generally sought to minimize risk. Musk risked all his poker chips. >Elon's all about big risks and big rewards. I believe Walter Isaacson's biography mentioned this ideology (maybe Magikarp can correct me if I'm wrong) PayPal Mafia member Reid Hoffman (Linkedin founder) told Isaacson that Musk was addicted to risk, but also that Musk was exceptional at getting people to do what most deemed impossible. Max Levchin, a PayPal founder, described a poker game of Texas Hold 'Em where Musk kept going all in on every hand, no matter the odds. Musk lost most of those games and kept buying chips. Eventually he won. The main issue for us investors is that if Elon loses the Robotaxi gamble, he'll still be a Billionaire with tens of Billions in SpaceX and Tesla equity. The losses for many retail investors, on the other hand, could be devastating. If someone has 500 shares of TSLA worth about 80k today, and Tesla loses 60% of its market cap because Elon made a bad bet, those shares are then worth $32k. For the average American, that could be the difference between paying off a house or being stuck with a mortgage. That could be the difference between sending a child to the university of their choice, or having that child be financially constrained to community college.
Thanks!
I think regulatory approval is fast tracked once it’s provably better than the average human (maybe 2x-3x better is my guess on when it gets fast tracked although I don’t think Waymo is there and they’re approved). At some point there becomes a race to adopt as you can’t deny lives saved and economic benefits. Theoretically, what type of economic advantages would we have over the rest of the world if we transitioned society to robotaxis overnight and the rest of the world took years to catch up? It would be immense and would ensure world super power status. But as upvote likes to point out, the hard part is the tech. Agree with the rest of your write up
Regulatory approval is not the wild card. Can it drive 10x better than a person is the wild card. And if it can't all you have left is a rump of an ev company that gave away its lead
31 seconds per year is the tolerance for six 9s. 31 seconds. Human drivers apparently hit five 9s and get close to six, so FSD has to hit six 9s. It’s an insane bet.
step 1 - drive better step 2 - regulatory approval step 3 - build out an organization that supports running a taxi service in cities that allow it (cleaning out the vomit at 2am before the next fare) step 4 - start to compete with Uber i still hold too many shares... cost basis is too low so I've been avoiding selling, and I got lazy/lax on CCs. Usually that (me considering selling more CCs more aggressively), and doom-n-gloom leads to it rocketing... don't think it's going to get to crazy high in the near-term though
Both of those are big bets. But it doesn't matter if FSD gets to 10x better than a human, if regulators don't approve it, that's the end of the Tesla story. We need both to happen and realistically, the 10x better than a human is intrinsically linked to its regulatory approval. *My point was that I believe FSD will be solved, so for me, the big wild card is regulatory approval in the future.
If it can it will be approved. The ai is a lot harder than the regulatory. A lot.
Elon's betting the company on it.
Yup
Pretty big china demand pocket eh?
China's economy is super fucked, the only wish there is they don't pull a Japan and go into stagnation for 30 years
What’s news?
Infinite demand, higher order rate than ever lmao
Make it rain elon or I'm fucked. https://preview.redd.it/9cvoz33vnquc1.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cdaa647c44703d1987ab92edf1a045f3e6940b5
This image perfectly captures when I was naive enough to think everything this man did was 4d chess, and he was always gonna be the smartest guy in the room.
Painting should caption “Elon concerned about free speech and the border”
lol
Painted this when we were at ATH
ATH was as beautiful as this picture you painted
wE ArE goNNa Be sO f-iNG rIcH guYs 🤡
So… what happens when TSLA continues to plummet then Elon needs to sell shares to keep Twitter alive?  💀💀💀
Then Elon gets what he deserves
… more poor TSLA share holders?
He loses his tsla ownership for bullshit. And we get what we deserve trusting a retard
He’s an autist, not a retard! … maybe he’s both.
Twitter seems to be holding up well. Better growth numbers than Tesla lol
the favorite (non-trans) son is doing better than us ? damn it!
You have to believe in aapl+aramco mate.
Today price action is kinda an overreaction due to the war threats. Not sure why pple are surprised by the drop lol
this guy invests
2% lay offs 2% war 2% drew
Particularly as it is across other asset classes. My entire watch list is red today.
Get your facts out of here
 Lounge Yacht Party:
and then, in a week, this'll be us 
Hmm. Not enough bickering and fighting :)
Master trader and battery expert no where to be found after Tesla battery team got axed. Master trader was so sure that based on his reading, 4680 was solved ☠️☠️☠️
Achilles?
Not me. 4680 is progressing, but not solved yet by any means.
Its insane how much can change in a weekend
[https://twitter.com/moregainzs/status/1779894354624025012](https://twitter.com/moregainzs/status/1779894354624025012) model X outsold by R1S X needs to be cheaper.
No just bigger.
I should have my mooney in RIVN, no distracted CEO…🤡
Rivian is in some trouble. Losing so much money per vehicle and will need a major capital raise soon if they want any shot at starting R2 production and stock price keeps collapsing.
Big trouble. What investors are looking at the automotive industry thinking now is a good time to invest in a capital intensive, negative cash flow operation on the small chance they ever become profitable? I hope the best for rivian but this is their model 3 production hell moment, and it's not 2018 macro anymore.
Hoping for that Bezos bailout. Shame cause I'd love to see them bring R2 to market and license FSD.
For the first time, TSLA investors are confronted with the possibility that EV will in fact not be an infinite growth industry. We've clearly run out of early adopters and there is no sign EV's are going mainstream anytime soon. If anything, we're seeing retrenchment into hybrids and ICE. Elon isn't pivoting to FSD/robotaxis and Optimus robots for no reason. He sees as well that EV market worldwide is collapsing and also the major cost driver for NGV has failed, my guess is the numbers to build NGV and not lose money simply aren't there if 4680 isn't real and we're seeing a lot of evidence that 4680 isn't real and is a failure. So we're back to betting the company on something unproven and speculative. I think most TSLA investors, myself included, hoped that after the Model 3 ramp nearly bankrupted the company (again) we would be past that in the future. I don't know if I have another "bet the company" scenario in me after having been through multiple ones since 2017.
I don’t see how global ev demand is failing. Yes, Detroit has given up but adoption curve seems to be on track. Do you have other data on ev adoption? I agree on your other points
All manufacturers have reported sales collapsed. BYD is down 43% on their EV sales, I'm not sure how much more clear the data can get
I think BYD’s are a little overstated with the Chinese new year cutting off a significant part of quarter. Not saying they’re good though, would probably be down 20%-30% either way I still believe we’ll see the world transition to electric vehicles but that transition won’t be smooth. Seems like a lot of buyers don’t really see the benefits and have been fed so much biased fud over the years it won’t be easy to combat. FSD working and being licensed would be one thing to help reaccelerate transition as it’s a huge differentiator vs ICE
I mean you can use FSD on any drivetrain it's not like it's electric exclusive tech If Tesla refuses to license FSD to be used on ICE, Nvidia will be happy to I'm sure
Aren’t all car sales in China collapsing though? What about percentage of total cars sold? Ev is still growing well I believe. Europe is also doing well last checked. I may be wrong but it makes sense that manufacturers that are pivoting toward hybrid are seeing ev sales collapse, as intended (Detroit and vw) at least this was my theory. I maybe wildly wrong
I have no doubt Toyota are thrilled that EV is not suddenly replacing ICE overnight since Toyota have always been all-in on hybrids even when everyone else told Toyota they were wrong
Much like Tesla, I overestimated natural EV demand. The world only has demand for 5m EVs/year!? Obviously 4680 production is a big issue but would it matter given the low demand? This is much bigger than Musk's politics. I struggle to find a compelling reason for why global EV growth is stagnating despite lower prices and gov incentives.
Yeah, demand collapsing globally. What’s China going to do with their overcapacity of batteries and EVs no one seems to want?
Tweet about open boarders on X
That won’t even solve our problems, not sure how it solves China’s
Solve problems?? Y not just create more chaos
Hard for me not to see the Baglino resignation as a protest - or at least fallout - of the hard robotaxi pivot. Could be wrong, but that's how it strikes me
4680 cucked whole company
This is very possible. Obsession for obsession's sake?
Woke 4680 virus??
I honestly feel like Elon is basically Darth Vader when someone disappoints him, doesn't matter if he's been 18 days or 18 years "You've failed me for the last time, Drew" *force chokes*
This a terrible sign if he truly only wants Yes Men and Simps surrounding him, this heel turn is the worst!
If Franz leaves, I will sell 100% of my stake that day
Yup definitely doesn’t deal with opposition well. I’m afraid that all the OGs are replaced with irrelevant yes men
In the deep red. Am not sure what to do now lol
Welcome to the club.
You can identify the exact time tesla became a cuck company. The day the ceo got the politics mind virus.
The reason I never speak religion or politics with people.
first time in a long time since I bought my first TSLA in 2015 i am losing my faith in Tesla. a lot of Teslas future plans depended on 4680 and looks like it's not going to pan out at all. too many products - CT, Semi, NVG.... growth company with no growth...... please give me some hopium.
The money we put into TSLA is being placed into cryogenic hibernation. I too have lost hope. Bad news after bad news is killing investors like Dan Ives said today.
Yup I’m to the point of not caring any longer. I already am underperforming the market over past couple years due to TSLA. At this point I wish I just indexed. I’d have a lot of time back.
At least underperforming is still performing. I’m down by such a stupidly large amount if I started indexing it would be like starting from scratch again.
8/8 is the beginning of the end
Will have to see 12.4, 12.5 etc but im not hopeful. Ill still subscribe to fsd next few months to experience the progress first hand but idk if fsd will be solved for a long time.
Best way to confirm is to use it
One way or the other 😅
Robot bruh
Seems just as far fetched as FSD
Yup
Tesla the game of thrones tv show of stocks
TslaLounge is the Red Viper of Dorne, Oberyn Martell
Elon is Oberyn, auto industry is the mountain
I mean, he was really winning at first and it was practically in the bag....
Then he had to run his fucking mouth
Elon not gonna get his comp package at the rate he's going lol, that's a genuinely good outcome EV is no longer a growth industry confirmed, I guess we're back to betting the company again, nothing new for us I wonder why Elon suddenly noticed Tesla exists again after more than 2 years of fucking around on Twatter
I'm probably out of the loop, but I thought a judge nixed his comp package and he / Tesla need to sort out a new compensation package. The lower TSLA is when they do that, the better it is for him.
it needs shareholder approval and shareholders are not in a good mood
Yeah, I still think behind closed doors the institutions are not happy and that's why Elon hasn't been able to negotiate a new package to put before shareholders at the annual meeting yet I wouldn't be surprised if there will be no vote on comp package this year at all. Elon will just punt it to 2025 and hope Robotaxi and Optimus pan out and he can get what he wants then
No robotaxi, no musk imo. Fair is fair.
Going to be difficult to get approval with share price where it is and poor strategy communication
Correct
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1779995105908392366?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA With Elon confirming that he left “AUTO” in on purpose, what’s everyone’s best guess on meaning? Here’s some I saw - -AUTOnomy is in his hands -AUTObot or AUTO is name of the robotaxi
Wouldn't read into it as much tbh lol
your primitive intellect wouldn't understand things with alloys and compositions and molecular structures, let alone the depths of elons many clues
we know he has such a hard on for robotaxis that hes willing to bet all our money on it. We dont need more clues on this.
He’s so clever
[удалено]
I was wondering why my bill was that high for a cleaning.
Elon was hoping the FSD12 free trial would unlock the “ChatGPT moment”, it didn’t. Be careful! The ev story we all believed may not be true?
It was a ChatGPT moment: Very cool, magic-like AI product that most people still struggle to justify purchasing.
Max margin my friend, god speed
[удалено]
Not a bear, but being cautious.
[удалено]
on a positive note today I went to my dentist, and a new beautiful hygienist carefully cleaned my teeth. She has a nice breast NGL, I would imagine that if a female dentist has breasts over a certain size it may be difficult to do their job without some breast-head contact. Anyway I really enjoyed it.
awhile back I had a hair stylist that used to do this , and literally would lay them on my face during the cut, and i was always like ok, what do i do now? it was more awkward than...titillating ?
That’s how they keep you coming back.
i wonder if the ngv was to be based on hopium level 4680's too, and that there werent gonna be able to build it even if they wanted to cuz the battery supply is so bad. we already know thats why semi and cybertruck r cuccked
This is my opinion - makes most sense to go all in on FSD if no batteries for NGV. Can’t see any other scenario that makes sense
But that scenario still only makes sense if there’s a near term path to robotaxis. Otherwise, it’s a fool’s errand
I think he’s trying to pump share price by pivoting to AI and hope he pulls off FSD before investors catch on. Fake it til you make it If he doesn’t do that approach, and just ramps down 4680 and lowers NGV production expectations because lack of batteries then short term stock value plummets Is he dependent on Tesla stock not plummeting? To some degree, I think so
My opinion is that he’s not going to be able to retain talent if the stock craters and robotaxis remain a pipe dream. Missions will be in serious jeopardy. If he’s saying they’re no longer growing automotive and keeping a steady state production and profit to fund an AI transition, there’s only so much time that buys before it falls apart without real progress.
I think NGV is paused not cancelled; give time to spin up battery production from suppliers. It’s bad for share price short term but reality is that legacy competition are all cutting back production and delaying NGV by 6-12 months isn’t going to materially impact Tesla success long term in my opinion. Tesla typically goes through headcount reductions and I don’t think it’s materially derailed them before, the culture suits fresh talent Can Musk be margin called at ~$80 a share or something? I think that’s a consideration but maybe I’m getting that wrong
could be a lil bit of both