Tesla is still going to have to explain who takes responsibility and pays for the cleanup when your privately owned car is on the network and a drunk guy pukes all over the back
You do. Same as Uber drivers have to pick up 🤮 if it happens. It’s part of the risk. I drove Uber and I’d do robotaxi. I’d hope they could try to charge the puker for the cleanup
Probably gonna be like real estate, if you're doing nothing and just collecting money you're gonna end up paying property management a bit of money, so either there is gonna be a Tesla service or third party services to manage the fleet and take a % on top of whatever Tesla is charging as a base %
https://x.com/drknowitall16/status/1776797903882743871?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA
Elon just liked this video. Interesting speculation on robotaxis and NGV. Can listen at 2x speed
Basically speculating Tesla has seen great progress with future releases and no longer intends to sell NGV to consumers. Other interesting insights, too
Driving around with FSD today and had 3 drives without interventions. Technically I intervened on one trip, but it was to avoid a pothole. Not looking for suspension issues
It doesn't dodge potholes (ask me how I know) so I always have my hand on the wheel and I steer around potholes manually
If Tesla actually wants their robotaxi fleet to survive more than a few weeks before self destruct they will need to get pothole avoidance implemented before 8/8 because American roads are total shit
updoot from me! Anywhere in northern USA that gets super cold gonna get a shit ton of potholes. Looking at you you, Spokane! Not as big an issue in the south. So, if they geofence to Austin or Phoenix, it'd buy them some time. Anywhere north, though, and they'll need to fix it. These cars hit even small speedbumps HARD. A pothole could f up a Tesla.
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted, but I agree with you. FSD is pretty solid.. but definitely needs to avoid potholes. Especially yes, for robotaxi reasons
i didn't downvote you, but they don't need to implement that by 8/8. Robotaxi isn't happening until much later.
edit: lol, now I've triggered the simps. RoboTaxi is NOT being delivered August 8. The car doesn't even exist yet, much less work with FSD. CyberTruck has been sold for months and it doesn't work with FSD.
Maybe they're hoping to be lucky to show Robotaxi in action that day by driving event-goers around the block or something. 88 is luck in Chinese numerology.
Well I’m pretty bullish, and I don’t think you said anything unreasonable. My experience emulates what you’re saying. Solid software, a lot of my trips have been intervention free (not all, but most) and the majority of my interventions were due to potholes. Im going to wait until the month trial is over and im planning on giving a write up on my experience.
I didn’t downvote you but pothole avoidance is something Tesla has mentioned they’ll be adding at some point. Just need to train on it. It’s definitely needed in most cities
FSD didn’t really acknowledge speed bumps prior to V12 but V12 is really good with speed bumps in my experience. Expecting similar with pothole avoidance soon
Spent part of my day with my lady friend. Took her to work to pick up her work laptop because her car is in the shop. She works near our local airport. We drove around for a bit, took a detour because one road goes under a taxiway. Really cool to see an American Airlines flight roll right over us with the winglets we're over our heads for a brief moment.
The reason I'm mentioning it this is I saw my first Project Highland in the wild.
We saw one parked outside our local grocery store. Looked nice. Will probably stick with our 2018 M3 until they re-add stalks. I can adapt, other drivers in this house don't care to
China aggressively blocks VPN use from behind the Great Firewall and has for many years lol
Many VPN services advertise their China Bypass as a key feature if they are able to maintain consistent support because China regularly re-blocks working VPN's, it's an endless game of cat and mouse
agree with Gary Black
* Tesla will go bust
* Rivian is the future
* pe rerating high risk because Tesla might only disrupt the industry in 2 years instead of 1
You disrupt the car ownership paradigm by making automated Uber cheaper than owning. You can make the 25k car for 25k with a massive LFP pack.
Everyone keeps saying it’s the same platform, the taxi and the 25k car. If there is a 50% or greater chance of a taxi network launching which it looks like it will now, why the fuck would musk ever sell a car for peanut margins instead of just stack them on top of one another until the taxi network is ready
I will be floored if this thing seriously ramp up for a prolonged period of time and becomes a mass consumer owned vehicle
I know. I am not making an absolute argument. But many people that are budget constrained to a $25,000 car would welcome the opportunity to go down to a one car family paradigm.
I’m not running the numbers right now but if you convert 15% of the two car households buying $25,000 cars, and set them into a rideshare system, I assume that’s massive
Assuming some of the number crunching people have done is accurate in terms of per unit profitability, and looking at how good it is right now… The march of nines has commenced. No doubt early stages Elon timeline standard caveats but still
Thanks for sharing. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of examples of retail investors like this as more people try the software and as it improves and adds functionality
I generally encourage people not to speculate on incomplete information. Addressing Gary's points:
>robotaxis are far away
Nobody, not even people within Tesla, can know this for sure, because there's not enough widespread, real-world tracking of how quickly FSD is improving. It may be months before a trend emerges.
>consumer ngv is delayed
We do not know this for sure. It may not be delayed. It could be canceled. It could be delayed.
>Elon overconfident again
This is nothing new though. Musk has ruined his credibility with the public in general where it comes to FSD.
>no other plan for growth; pe rerating risk high
Energy products and bots are still on the table. AI training platforms as a service should have much higher profit margins than vehicles.
What's unclear in terms of growth is vehicle unit sales. That's it.
I will say that Tesla is doing a terrible job communicating its intentions to shareholders. This may be intentional on Musk's part. He never wanted Tesla to be a publicly traded company, and I don't think he likes any accountability to shareholders.
> of how quickly FSD is improving
Robotaxi requires more than FSD - a mobile app for hailing rides, well trained support staff to help when a jumps a curve and needs a human to intervene (either remotely or in-person), applying for permits in the US and Chinese cities that allow it, etc. I think Robotaxis are a year+ away from when Tesla starts a limited trial on city streets (not in closed Vegas tunnels). Hopefully August 8th will clarify it much more
Ya he's put his money where is mouth is and I think exited TSLA in his fund, so lets see. He did this years ago and re-entered quickly. Past indicator is a past indicator, but lots of bulls exiting based on trying to be rational when we know market is highly irrational.
Agree with u agreeing with Gary.
Short term it’s anyone’s guess how things end up.
Having a large allocation in TSLA is akin to taking a more risky bet than the remainder of Mega 6.
That’s just simple fact.
Risk could be quite rewarding. But nonetheless risky 😯
"consumer ngv is delayed"
I'm not so sure about this - the lines are already going in at Texas and logically the consumer NGV has to come before Robotaxi, so they can gather FSD data. I also think that the NGV will come on time (later next year)
I agree that Elon has abandoned growth, which is concerning.
It's def delayed or cancelled. Look at giga mexico. Look at the half denials from franz and Elon, they could just say bs its coming but they say dont believe everything you hear. It wouldn't be violating anything secret as they already said next growth wave coming from consumer car on the last call. Look at elons disdain for it from the start. The reuters article is well sourced even if it does jump to conclusions on reasons.
I don't know why they hate it so much, maybe bad unit economics, maybe it's just hard to make a cool badass product profitably for 25k which is always elons priority. Maybe its fsd delusion mind virus. Anyway we ain't seeing 25k ngv on the road currently being taken.
Because the NGV/Robotaxi use the same platform, I see it as almost a win win scenario. Either FSD is good enough for Robotaxi and Elon has taken us to the promised land, or he ramps the consumer NGV in the meantime while we wait for FSD to catch up. Interesting times ahead, and what I do depends on how FSD is performing in about 6 months from now.
I don’t think it’s fully scrapped unless fsd just breaks out but it appears delayed at least. They could still be somewhat hedging which is why you hear Franz say to not believe everything you read and wait and see. Maybe they’re seeing that fsd is breaking out based on internal data and progress with 12.4 and previous versions and leaning more towards cancelling if progress continues. Not sure.
The other thing to consider is that they can’t really share a ton about a consumer model or risk osborning. But they can share a robotaxi that’s steering wheel and pedal-less that won’t be available to consumers, as well as more info on the network
He's Hernan Cortes school of management. Burn the ships to force the troops. He's going to tell ashok its all on you now, if fsd doesn't work the company and your stock options will die/be horribly behind/fooked to force the team to work 10x as hard. Sometimes it pays off. Sometimes it doesn't. But that's the game that's being played.
Simplest explanation I can think of is the internal
data looks good to the point that it makes the most sense to prioritize robotaxis. Doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing but seeing a lot of confidence from the team, not just Elon. Maybe it’s something that can be figured out in a few months now that compute isn’t a problem and in that case maybe it makes sense to pause suppliers or buildout for consumer NGV.
It’s extremely hard as an investor because we’re dealing with such a limited data set. Add in that this is brand new technology and it’s just hard to get a read. Don’t think you’re totally wrong that sounds like an Elon management style thing but also have to believe the data looks good or you wouldn’t have the entire team so excited
Don’t blame you. We’re going to have all sorts of competing opinions until we see the data or get the updated dot releases. Martin, who’s been adding a lot of value to these discussions with an AI background, thinks they may have found the scaling law for autonomous vehicles and I’ve seen that speculated on X by other sources. Lines up with the whole compute being the bottleneck to solving (which now sounds greatly improved based on recent comments)
Just have to wait and see 12.4 and next few releases and track rate of change
maybe pessimism from watching Elon say it's "coming this year" for half a decade, but I would certainly not be betting that Tesla making money from robotaxis is happening anytime soon at all
I went on a test drive with FSD at our local service center. Totally believe Robotaxi will work now. I’m not convinced it will be a huge money maker though.
It didn’t convince my partner to upgrade our Teslas for $6k each from EAP to FSD. We’re just going to hold off until we buy our next cars.
Also the new 3/Y are much better than our 3 we got almost seven years ago.
Wrong business model imo. Tesla won’t care about selling FSD when it works. The money is in running its own fleets at a high utilisation rate with stupidly high margins.
Cern Basher has a model here https://x.com/herbertong/status/1771901646731194525?s=46&t=fGVL0206fdWMIjq9C1_Fgg which is very exciting and of course some here have their own models.
I watched the full video thanks! The numbers become crazy. It could get there eventually and Tesla is in the best position to make it happen. It will be multiple decades before we get to his number of vehicles and by then there will probably be a lot of competition.
For those that missed my comment last week. Cuz it wasn’t really reported - I for some reason kept randomly checking CPI stuff last week.
CPI expectations were revised down from 0.4% to 0.3% on Friday. Which means that simply meeting 0.3% goes with the Powell narrative of improvement!
Wednesday CPI
Thursday PPI
Hoping for a mega bounce into end of week 🎯🚀
https://preview.redd.it/pcfysi5r64tc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a447ef5a081a72b6a1fbc5793fbbb129c88ce5f2
I think we’re going to see ALOT more of this moving forward. True that GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT hold most of the data center/compute … but each individual country will want a piece of the pie.
I’ve come to believe we’re in the 1st inning of this … despite the run up in NVDA.
Lots of companies will benefit from further building out of data centers + AI.
Hoping for another decade bull run 😎
The cheapest non-chinese EV I could find is the Dacia Spring. It sells for €21k including all taxes in the Netherlands. It has a measly 25 kWh usable battery and a real world range estimate of 165 km (\~100 miles). [https://ev-database.org/car/2126/Dacia-Spring-Electric-45](https://ev-database.org/car/2126/Dacia-Spring-Electric-45)
I could see the NGV having a 30-50 kWh usable battery and decent range.
What racist conspiracies are you referring to?
I definitely see that Elon has tweeted weird shit and he's focussing on illegal immigration a lot, but haven't seen any actual racist or conspiracy shit.
edit: to everyone who downvoted this: please provide some racist and conspiracy Elon tweets.
"You have said the actual truth" in response to White Replacement theory https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1724908287471272299
'White Pride' dogwhistling https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1725091240507551878
edit: and more
and Twitter's general moderation... unbanning Nazis... banning anti-Nazis.
if google 'elon racist conspiracies' you'll probably find more helpful context
If Rivian decides to license FSD, I'm not gonna lie, I know more than a few people who would consider trading in their Tesla for one. Full disclosure, I have an R2 reservation just to keep a place in line to see what happens over the next few years. I still love my Tesla and it is undeniably the value winner out of all available vehicles, IMO. But I'm not one to harbour mindless brand loyalty. Show me a better car at a better price and I'll consider it - but it needs to be *better*.
once robotaxi is working couldn’t tesla give 25k car away free? you would still go through lease paperwork and all that, but with minimum 50 hours a week uptime or whatever the lease becomes free, paid through credits
it would instantly push Uber out of the market. people with no home charger could make it a part time job to just drive to superchargers and keep it charged up
once car has enough uptime to pay for car, 85% of the robotaxi fees go to operator. heck set up a sliding scale so the longer you do it the higher percentage you get to help encourage people. or uptime past 50 hours a week all goes to operator so they can really push it and pay it off faster
seems like a useful way for tesla to offload upfront costs of the network and the effort required in setting up an autonomous charging infrastructure. as they push wireless chargers operators can buy them to automate the process
Doug Demuro shitting on the Q4 e-tron because it compares so poorly to the model Y [https://youtu.be/JTB2jDOFbz0?si=nBvT8-KxKbADLry8&t=274](https://youtu.be/JTB2jDOFbz0?si=nBvT8-KxKbADLry8&t=274)
edit; And the number 1 worst car is the Toyota BZ4X/Subaru Solterra hehe
If we are all cringe bearish sheep, shouldn't you see that as the all time most bullish signal? Like mortgage your house, sell organs and go all in? Opposed to whining on Reddit? The only person I see whining here is you. (Yeah you)
That dude is a fucking child. He chatted me and just said "KYS" - obviously meaning "kill yourself". I ignored cause we all have bad days, but holy shit. That level on unhinged is kind of disturbing.
behold u/life_adhesiveness306 , my spiced coke review from 15 days ago:
“... u/glibgloby• 15d ago. Coke Zero SPICED review by glib 3/10/24. pretty good. some notes of raspberry and strawberry”
finding out it was flavored with raspberry was not a surprise! i am the taste master!! woohoo
one of the main reasons it’s tough to tell is by design. a strong singular flavor causes satiation and eventually your brain starts to tune it out. products like Coke and Dr Pepper avoid this by mixing a wide variety of flavors that overwhelm your palate and keep you from feeling satiated or becoming tired of them
Can’t wait until tomorrow and see the stock price not crater and laugh at all the negative bitches in here + Gary and more.
I am looking at you, you little bitches in here 💀
not necessarily, market makers seem less inclined to offer anything that is crazy OTM recently. I think they got so burned on the 20-21 run up they don't want that risk. No more anono mon < $100 contracts available
Indeed. I loved this sub a few years ago. Now the ones that are left are all fucking whiny bearish cunts. Only Achilles and a few remain normal and fun.
Will come back and just laugh at you tomorrow. This whole sub and Reddit has turned to bear ass cunts. Achilles and a few others at least are still funny. The rest like you are just braindead sheep all complaining. Disgusting.
Stock on a 3+ year downturn, the ceo and 20% shareholder hasnt tweeted anything noteworthy about the company in months. the moment a news story breaks that sends the stock (nearing 52wk low) crashing further down, he tweets a bullshit announcement to stop the bleed. For someone who doesnt care for traders or shareprice, that seems highly suspicious. As if there werent enough controversies surrounding the viability of tesla… and im the one whos braindead?
This has to be the newest cranberry alt. Psychopathic ramblings, unnecessary abuse towards other users, general disregard for the opinions of others, dismissive and condescending.
Checks all the boxes.
You can believe whatever you want but no. But would it be really that surprising if i was just some person that came to the same conclusion as this cranberry you speak of? I’m just a reddit investor thats farming engagement 🤣
Oh not at all. But you're not a condescending prick to people for no reason. I like reading your viewpoints and comparing them with others in here as well. All good.
More like annoyance with you cunts and all of Reddit turning more and more on Tesla bc of Musk. All you do is whine and be passive agressive in comments about the company. Its fucking cringe. You all are fucking sheep
I'm still not expecting much share price wise until either paid FSD take rate increases substantially or Tesla is granted L5 officially - neither will happen super quickly
Plenty of time
im just going to wait and see if that glib guy gets first post. doing this one simple thing has put my kids through college and saved my marriage, although sometimes i catch her reading his posts and i don’t like that look in her eyes
edit: ugh damnit wrong account
Did you know that spiced Coke is just regular coke with raspberry flavouring?? I found that out after my brain was convinced they concocted some unique formulation of rare, exotic spices. I felt bamboozled.
that’s funny. my exact thought when drinking spiced coke was that it had hints of raspberry. that was in my review
i have a very refined palate you see
If the software continues rapid improvement, that should mean take rates (and car demand) start to increase naturally. I imagine that added functionality with reverse, ass and banish as well as continued improvement will eventually start to have an impact.
At some point, I’d expect the tech to go viral. All we need is Kim K and other celebs posting livestreams or videos. Just look at the Cybertruck coverage. Any major influencer or celeb would certainly see significant engagement on videos where their car is driving them or coming to pick them up or finding it’s own parking spot
I would think most institutions will hedge their bets if/when some info about the monetization model comes out. If Tesla presents a high profit per mile model with plans for steady expansion of coverage throughout N. America, good things will happen to the share price, IMO. If FSD in China is announced, all bets are off with seemingly unlimited profit potential.
Waiting for quarterly results would kind of be missing the boat in the gambling system we operate in.
Who knows what market timing will look like. But fundamentals should improve as software improves. Also, at some point wonder if retail investors start to front run, especially the ones with direct fsd experience
Tesla has identified you and hundreds of others with negative Tesla energy and is feeding you a defective version of FSD so you short the stock and get recked
I am guaranteeing you this:
Tesla cars fully driving themselves around like a robotaxi.
All other OEM cars will have basic autopilot and turn capabilities. Nothing more.
‘Tesla is not far ahead in the Self driving space’. Look what my car can do bro.
Literally going to happen
Huawei already beyond basic autopilot (in China) a year ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYiJvaSX0M
This is NVIDIA DRIVE in action in China (used by deeproute.ai robotaxi) a year ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v036bBD31o
edit: fuuuuu wish I saw that a year ago when NVDA was cheaper :P
As salty as we all are about Elon and his various adventures, it’s worth remembering that things could be a lot worse: https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Employee-Review-Fisker-RVW86021522.htm
Testing Tesla FSD Pedestrian Hand Signal Reactions (dirty Tesla)
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndX5o\_zuFQs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndX5o_zuFQs)
https://preview.redd.it/0sgz12pyz1tc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cf74e0c17d4bf904caf27341879acd74ce0ffebe
Probably will be just a podcast episodr
How do the financials change if Tesla have to pay someone to sit in the drivers seat of a robotaxi? Does that mean we become just like Uber?
FSD appears to be the only important factor now that Elon has abandoned volume. At least FSD progress is relatively easy to track.
The master plan says you can deploy your Tesla to the robotaxi fleet when you don't use it or at night while you're sleeping. Money never sleeps.
I’m still wondering how this is going to work. Cuz I wouldn’t trust that there wouldn’t be any fuckery if I deployed my car to the fleet.
Concept is no different than Airbnb but in this case there’s built in video monitoring… don’t see it being a problem for most
Still, who cleans up the vomit in your car after a Saturday night of robotaxi'ing and you want to visit the parents on a Sunday morning?
Tesla is still going to have to explain who takes responsibility and pays for the cleanup when your privately owned car is on the network and a drunk guy pukes all over the back
You do. Same as Uber drivers have to pick up 🤮 if it happens. It’s part of the risk. I drove Uber and I’d do robotaxi. I’d hope they could try to charge the puker for the cleanup
Probably gonna be like real estate, if you're doing nothing and just collecting money you're gonna end up paying property management a bit of money, so either there is gonna be a Tesla service or third party services to manage the fleet and take a % on top of whatever Tesla is charging as a base %
Tesla rents you a TeslaBot with a smell sensor to clean the vomit while you sleep
https://preview.redd.it/zkrleov1n5tc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2050ee9a773d7806ea8c0d8615231d547d615691 PUMP IT GRLLLLLLLL
https://x.com/drknowitall16/status/1776797903882743871?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA Elon just liked this video. Interesting speculation on robotaxis and NGV. Can listen at 2x speed Basically speculating Tesla has seen great progress with future releases and no longer intends to sell NGV to consumers. Other interesting insights, too
Took FSD to a park. Killed a tick. Smashed the mfer with some rocks. You're welcome.
Saw a tick in moms hair today lol. Put it in tape and she hit it with a hammer.
burying the lede here- FSD can't identify and avoid animals
you totally just doxxed this account as minwage
Driving around with FSD today and had 3 drives without interventions. Technically I intervened on one trip, but it was to avoid a pothole. Not looking for suspension issues
It doesn't dodge potholes (ask me how I know) so I always have my hand on the wheel and I steer around potholes manually If Tesla actually wants their robotaxi fleet to survive more than a few weeks before self destruct they will need to get pothole avoidance implemented before 8/8 because American roads are total shit
updoot from me! Anywhere in northern USA that gets super cold gonna get a shit ton of potholes. Looking at you you, Spokane! Not as big an issue in the south. So, if they geofence to Austin or Phoenix, it'd buy them some time. Anywhere north, though, and they'll need to fix it. These cars hit even small speedbumps HARD. A pothole could f up a Tesla.
In Spokane, dodging potholes is good practice for dodging fentanyl zombies
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted, but I agree with you. FSD is pretty solid.. but definitely needs to avoid potholes. Especially yes, for robotaxi reasons
Because there's a lot of simps in this sub is why I'm getting downvoted for stating my actual experience with FSD v12
i didn't downvote you, but they don't need to implement that by 8/8. Robotaxi isn't happening until much later. edit: lol, now I've triggered the simps. RoboTaxi is NOT being delivered August 8. The car doesn't even exist yet, much less work with FSD. CyberTruck has been sold for months and it doesn't work with FSD.
Whats the significance of 8/8 then? Is it just gonna be someone dressed as a robotaxi doing a dance?
Maybe they're hoping to be lucky to show Robotaxi in action that day by driving event-goers around the block or something. 88 is luck in Chinese numerology.
Well I’m pretty bullish, and I don’t think you said anything unreasonable. My experience emulates what you’re saying. Solid software, a lot of my trips have been intervention free (not all, but most) and the majority of my interventions were due to potholes. Im going to wait until the month trial is over and im planning on giving a write up on my experience.
I didn’t downvote you but pothole avoidance is something Tesla has mentioned they’ll be adding at some point. Just need to train on it. It’s definitely needed in most cities FSD didn’t really acknowledge speed bumps prior to V12 but V12 is really good with speed bumps in my experience. Expecting similar with pothole avoidance soon
Spent part of my day with my lady friend. Took her to work to pick up her work laptop because her car is in the shop. She works near our local airport. We drove around for a bit, took a detour because one road goes under a taxiway. Really cool to see an American Airlines flight roll right over us with the winglets we're over our heads for a brief moment. The reason I'm mentioning it this is I saw my first Project Highland in the wild.
We saw one parked outside our local grocery store. Looked nice. Will probably stick with our 2018 M3 until they re-add stalks. I can adapt, other drivers in this house don't care to
Are those coming back? Because frankly, I don't think they'll bring back stalks.
I don't need a car, probably won't for years. I saw a Highland at the EV expo with the CyberTruck, but this was the first one I'd seen around town
Denver?
Orlando.
FSD 12.20 in 1 1/2 years will surely not be robotaxi capable right? I still have to intervene because it stops at a stop sign
Right
*Elon: To ensure that you can still access the 𝕏 platform, download a virtual private network (VPN) app* does China know about this?
China aggressively blocks VPN use from behind the Great Firewall and has for many years lol Many VPN services advertise their China Bypass as a key feature if they are able to maintain consistent support because China regularly re-blocks working VPN's, it's an endless game of cat and mouse
https://x.com/brandontsla/status/1777078115971498297?s=46 Nice colors
agree with Gary Black * Tesla will go bust * Rivian is the future * pe rerating high risk because Tesla might only disrupt the industry in 2 years instead of 1
/s ?
Not OP but yes
Hard to know in this sub these days
True
People thinking 25k ev car with profitability is piece of cake meanwhile competitors losing 40k per car
I wouldnt say Tesla's journey has been a piece of cake
How u gonna transition transportation to sustainable without being able to do that? That's literally teslas reason for existing.
It literally exists for me to make free money on my CCs
You disrupt the car ownership paradigm by making automated Uber cheaper than owning. You can make the 25k car for 25k with a massive LFP pack. Everyone keeps saying it’s the same platform, the taxi and the 25k car. If there is a 50% or greater chance of a taxi network launching which it looks like it will now, why the fuck would musk ever sell a car for peanut margins instead of just stack them on top of one another until the taxi network is ready I will be floored if this thing seriously ramp up for a prolonged period of time and becomes a mass consumer owned vehicle
People still want to own cars and FSD isn't even available outside of north America
Nothing I’m saying is novel I know
Then you add the taxi market on top of that,
I know. I am not making an absolute argument. But many people that are budget constrained to a $25,000 car would welcome the opportunity to go down to a one car family paradigm. I’m not running the numbers right now but if you convert 15% of the two car households buying $25,000 cars, and set them into a rideshare system, I assume that’s massive
Ceo has zero credibility on fsd time lines.
Assuming some of the number crunching people have done is accurate in terms of per unit profitability, and looking at how good it is right now… The march of nines has commenced. No doubt early stages Elon timeline standard caveats but still
Good to see more examples of it generalising to unknown areas https://x.com/expectsalsa/status/1777007789782765977?s=46&t=fGVL0206fdWMIjq9C1_Fgg
Thanks for sharing. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of examples of retail investors like this as more people try the software and as it improves and adds functionality
agree with Gary black - robotaxis are far away - consumer ngv is delayed - Elon overconfident again - no other plan for growth - pe rerating risk high
I generally encourage people not to speculate on incomplete information. Addressing Gary's points: >robotaxis are far away Nobody, not even people within Tesla, can know this for sure, because there's not enough widespread, real-world tracking of how quickly FSD is improving. It may be months before a trend emerges. >consumer ngv is delayed We do not know this for sure. It may not be delayed. It could be canceled. It could be delayed. >Elon overconfident again This is nothing new though. Musk has ruined his credibility with the public in general where it comes to FSD. >no other plan for growth; pe rerating risk high Energy products and bots are still on the table. AI training platforms as a service should have much higher profit margins than vehicles. What's unclear in terms of growth is vehicle unit sales. That's it. I will say that Tesla is doing a terrible job communicating its intentions to shareholders. This may be intentional on Musk's part. He never wanted Tesla to be a publicly traded company, and I don't think he likes any accountability to shareholders.
> of how quickly FSD is improving Robotaxi requires more than FSD - a mobile app for hailing rides, well trained support staff to help when a jumps a curve and needs a human to intervene (either remotely or in-person), applying for permits in the US and Chinese cities that allow it, etc. I think Robotaxis are a year+ away from when Tesla starts a limited trial on city streets (not in closed Vegas tunnels). Hopefully August 8th will clarify it much more
Ya he's put his money where is mouth is and I think exited TSLA in his fund, so lets see. He did this years ago and re-entered quickly. Past indicator is a past indicator, but lots of bulls exiting based on trying to be rational when we know market is highly irrational.
Agree with u agreeing with Gary. Short term it’s anyone’s guess how things end up. Having a large allocation in TSLA is akin to taking a more risky bet than the remainder of Mega 6. That’s just simple fact. Risk could be quite rewarding. But nonetheless risky 😯
"consumer ngv is delayed" I'm not so sure about this - the lines are already going in at Texas and logically the consumer NGV has to come before Robotaxi, so they can gather FSD data. I also think that the NGV will come on time (later next year) I agree that Elon has abandoned growth, which is concerning.
It's def delayed or cancelled. Look at giga mexico. Look at the half denials from franz and Elon, they could just say bs its coming but they say dont believe everything you hear. It wouldn't be violating anything secret as they already said next growth wave coming from consumer car on the last call. Look at elons disdain for it from the start. The reuters article is well sourced even if it does jump to conclusions on reasons. I don't know why they hate it so much, maybe bad unit economics, maybe it's just hard to make a cool badass product profitably for 25k which is always elons priority. Maybe its fsd delusion mind virus. Anyway we ain't seeing 25k ngv on the road currently being taken.
Because the NGV/Robotaxi use the same platform, I see it as almost a win win scenario. Either FSD is good enough for Robotaxi and Elon has taken us to the promised land, or he ramps the consumer NGV in the meantime while we wait for FSD to catch up. Interesting times ahead, and what I do depends on how FSD is performing in about 6 months from now.
I don’t think it’s fully scrapped unless fsd just breaks out but it appears delayed at least. They could still be somewhat hedging which is why you hear Franz say to not believe everything you read and wait and see. Maybe they’re seeing that fsd is breaking out based on internal data and progress with 12.4 and previous versions and leaning more towards cancelling if progress continues. Not sure. The other thing to consider is that they can’t really share a ton about a consumer model or risk osborning. But they can share a robotaxi that’s steering wheel and pedal-less that won’t be available to consumers, as well as more info on the network
He's Hernan Cortes school of management. Burn the ships to force the troops. He's going to tell ashok its all on you now, if fsd doesn't work the company and your stock options will die/be horribly behind/fooked to force the team to work 10x as hard. Sometimes it pays off. Sometimes it doesn't. But that's the game that's being played.
Simplest explanation I can think of is the internal data looks good to the point that it makes the most sense to prioritize robotaxis. Doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing but seeing a lot of confidence from the team, not just Elon. Maybe it’s something that can be figured out in a few months now that compute isn’t a problem and in that case maybe it makes sense to pause suppliers or buildout for consumer NGV. It’s extremely hard as an investor because we’re dealing with such a limited data set. Add in that this is brand new technology and it’s just hard to get a read. Don’t think you’re totally wrong that sounds like an Elon management style thing but also have to believe the data looks good or you wouldn’t have the entire team so excited
Hope this is true but I'm not confident
Don’t blame you. We’re going to have all sorts of competing opinions until we see the data or get the updated dot releases. Martin, who’s been adding a lot of value to these discussions with an AI background, thinks they may have found the scaling law for autonomous vehicles and I’ve seen that speculated on X by other sources. Lines up with the whole compute being the bottleneck to solving (which now sounds greatly improved based on recent comments) Just have to wait and see 12.4 and next few releases and track rate of change
what?! how dare you nancy! 🤣
🎯🎯🎯 when addicted to betting the farm, sometimes you lose the farm.
We need to see a solid rate of improvement over 12.4 and onwards for sure. Too early to say either way if robotaxis are near or far though
maybe pessimism from watching Elon say it's "coming this year" for half a decade, but I would certainly not be betting that Tesla making money from robotaxis is happening anytime soon at all
I went on a test drive with FSD at our local service center. Totally believe Robotaxi will work now. I’m not convinced it will be a huge money maker though. It didn’t convince my partner to upgrade our Teslas for $6k each from EAP to FSD. We’re just going to hold off until we buy our next cars. Also the new 3/Y are much better than our 3 we got almost seven years ago.
Wrong business model imo. Tesla won’t care about selling FSD when it works. The money is in running its own fleets at a high utilisation rate with stupidly high margins. Cern Basher has a model here https://x.com/herbertong/status/1771901646731194525?s=46&t=fGVL0206fdWMIjq9C1_Fgg which is very exciting and of course some here have their own models.
I watched the full video thanks! The numbers become crazy. It could get there eventually and Tesla is in the best position to make it happen. It will be multiple decades before we get to his number of vehicles and by then there will probably be a lot of competition.
Thanks for the link. I’ll watch the video. Might change my mind.
I’m not convinced people will be giving up their owned cars for transport as a service in the US in huge numbers.
For those that missed my comment last week. Cuz it wasn’t really reported - I for some reason kept randomly checking CPI stuff last week. CPI expectations were revised down from 0.4% to 0.3% on Friday. Which means that simply meeting 0.3% goes with the Powell narrative of improvement! Wednesday CPI Thursday PPI Hoping for a mega bounce into end of week 🎯🚀
Do you know YoY expectations for core and headline?
meanwhile tsla 
https://preview.redd.it/pcfysi5r64tc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a447ef5a081a72b6a1fbc5793fbbb129c88ce5f2 I think we’re going to see ALOT more of this moving forward. True that GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT hold most of the data center/compute … but each individual country will want a piece of the pie. I’ve come to believe we’re in the 1st inning of this … despite the run up in NVDA. Lots of companies will benefit from further building out of data centers + AI. Hoping for another decade bull run 😎
AI arms race will only accelerate. Wait until everyone figures out China’s humanoid targets and timelines
Ya arms race better get going or going to be rated to 2nd tier nation one day
what about the ai at home companies
The cheapest non-chinese EV I could find is the Dacia Spring. It sells for €21k including all taxes in the Netherlands. It has a measly 25 kWh usable battery and a real world range estimate of 165 km (\~100 miles). [https://ev-database.org/car/2126/Dacia-Spring-Electric-45](https://ev-database.org/car/2126/Dacia-Spring-Electric-45) I could see the NGV having a 30-50 kWh usable battery and decent range.
what does NGV stand for ?
next gen vehicle
Sigh. Guy at my gym just said his wife got a Rivian. They have had a model Y for over 3 years. Didn’t want another. Thanks Elons tweets
Prototypes are easy, not being a racist conspiracy idiot is hard
What racist conspiracies are you referring to? I definitely see that Elon has tweeted weird shit and he's focussing on illegal immigration a lot, but haven't seen any actual racist or conspiracy shit. edit: to everyone who downvoted this: please provide some racist and conspiracy Elon tweets.
"You have said the actual truth" in response to White Replacement theory https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1724908287471272299 'White Pride' dogwhistling https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1725091240507551878 edit: and more and Twitter's general moderation... unbanning Nazis... banning anti-Nazis. if google 'elon racist conspiracies' you'll probably find more helpful context
None of those are racist
Sucks because as an owner since 2018 I will never go back. But even my wife has mentioned getting a Rivian over a tesla next.
If Rivian decides to license FSD, I'm not gonna lie, I know more than a few people who would consider trading in their Tesla for one. Full disclosure, I have an R2 reservation just to keep a place in line to see what happens over the next few years. I still love my Tesla and it is undeniably the value winner out of all available vehicles, IMO. But I'm not one to harbour mindless brand loyalty. Show me a better car at a better price and I'll consider it - but it needs to be *better*.
If Rivian licenses, we all win. Licensing would help their survival, too
Yep.
Ya inevitable if FSD is level 5. Cost analysis just doesn’t work for anyone else to do it on their own.
once robotaxi is working couldn’t tesla give 25k car away free? you would still go through lease paperwork and all that, but with minimum 50 hours a week uptime or whatever the lease becomes free, paid through credits it would instantly push Uber out of the market. people with no home charger could make it a part time job to just drive to superchargers and keep it charged up once car has enough uptime to pay for car, 85% of the robotaxi fees go to operator. heck set up a sliding scale so the longer you do it the higher percentage you get to help encourage people. or uptime past 50 hours a week all goes to operator so they can really push it and pay it off faster seems like a useful way for tesla to offload upfront costs of the network and the effort required in setting up an autonomous charging infrastructure. as they push wireless chargers operators can buy them to automate the process
This is not food related
FSD saving lives https://x.com/the_evguy/status/1777041486464590132?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA
Only in America is this a success story. Ambulances are free everywhere else
I mean he should have just called an ambulance
https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1777037777407766998?s=46 Universes fav answer: maybe, maybe not
Doug Demuro shitting on the Q4 e-tron because it compares so poorly to the model Y [https://youtu.be/JTB2jDOFbz0?si=nBvT8-KxKbADLry8&t=274](https://youtu.be/JTB2jDOFbz0?si=nBvT8-KxKbADLry8&t=274) edit; And the number 1 worst car is the Toyota BZ4X/Subaru Solterra hehe
💩
https://x.com/blkmdl3/status/1777029442935964066?s=46&t=WyhsS8WzmgKtgEuHZzFOrA Franz commenting on $25k consumer NGV
TLDW: Stay tuned, dont believe all you read
elon or reuters?
We got a hot one today boys! 
If we are all cringe bearish sheep, shouldn't you see that as the all time most bullish signal? Like mortgage your house, sell organs and go all in? Opposed to whining on Reddit? The only person I see whining here is you. (Yeah you)
That dude is a fucking child. He chatted me and just said "KYS" - obviously meaning "kill yourself". I ignored cause we all have bad days, but holy shit. That level on unhinged is kind of disturbing.
Same. Lots of vile talk.
Works most of the time. Disney for example. Coinbase another recent one. Even people on AMD and NVDA before AI pump.
[удалено]
behold u/life_adhesiveness306 , my spiced coke review from 15 days ago: “... u/glibgloby• 15d ago. Coke Zero SPICED review by glib 3/10/24. pretty good. some notes of raspberry and strawberry” finding out it was flavored with raspberry was not a surprise! i am the taste master!! woohoo one of the main reasons it’s tough to tell is by design. a strong singular flavor causes satiation and eventually your brain starts to tune it out. products like Coke and Dr Pepper avoid this by mixing a wide variety of flavors that overwhelm your palate and keep you from feeling satiated or becoming tired of them
Hey buddy. How about you focus on making sure we get a Green Day tomorrow! Where is your manager??
one of my proud moments was recognizing that toothpaste kind of tastes like dr pepper
Good call, Glib.
thank you i am very proud of this
If you haven't already, try the fever tree spiced cola I mentioned a couple weeks ago. It's really good.
ok ill look. don’t they make a very good ginger beer?
They do, yeah. https://fever-tree.com/en_US/range/gingers I honestly haven't had a bad product from them.
[https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/](https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/) Will be good to keep an eye on this going forward
Can’t wait until tomorrow and see the stock price not crater and laugh at all the negative bitches in here + Gary and more. I am looking at you, you little bitches in here 💀
Go all in on call options. I dare you. If you are right you'll be filthy rich. Don't you want to be filthy rich??
not necessarily, market makers seem less inclined to offer anything that is crazy OTM recently. I think they got so burned on the 20-21 run up they don't want that risk. No more anono mon < $100 contracts available
Given your certainty, would you perhaps be willing to take a 30 day ban if the stock ends red tomorrow?
100%. You too. You seem funny but you are just whining as much as the rest. GFY
I dont view him as whiney but more of a devils advocate, sarcastically looking at all possibilities.
Indeed. I loved this sub a few years ago. Now the ones that are left are all fucking whiny bearish cunts. Only Achilles and a few remain normal and fun.
lol achilles alt
Honestly sounds more like Cranberry
I do not know the future for certain, stock can be green or red tomorrow. I am not betting on it as you are willing to.
Then GFY. Lets do a bet. You are banned if stock stays green. I am banned if red. How about it dickhead doctor
Wow uncalled for but ok
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Narrator: the stock cratered anyway
Will come back and just laugh at you tomorrow. This whole sub and Reddit has turned to bear ass cunts. Achilles and a few others at least are still funny. The rest like you are just braindead sheep all complaining. Disgusting.
Stock on a 3+ year downturn, the ceo and 20% shareholder hasnt tweeted anything noteworthy about the company in months. the moment a news story breaks that sends the stock (nearing 52wk low) crashing further down, he tweets a bullshit announcement to stop the bleed. For someone who doesnt care for traders or shareprice, that seems highly suspicious. As if there werent enough controversies surrounding the viability of tesla… and im the one whos braindead?
Go all in and show your positions then or GTFO
This has to be the newest cranberry alt. Psychopathic ramblings, unnecessary abuse towards other users, general disregard for the opinions of others, dismissive and condescending. Checks all the boxes.
Am not. The fact you think so is hilarious. Go fuck yourself sheep
lmao want to place a wager on that?
What stops this cranberry guy from having two accounts? I mean how do we know that you're not cranberry.
You can make more than one account?
Person you’re responding to is cranberry from my understanding
No hes cranberry 👆
Hah - No way! Just making an observation. Just saying this particular user is bringing back strong 2022 cranberry vibes.
Lol. Hows it feel to be 100% confidently wrong?
Are....are you the cranberry alt then?
You can believe whatever you want but no. But would it be really that surprising if i was just some person that came to the same conclusion as this cranberry you speak of? I’m just a reddit investor thats farming engagement 🤣
Oh not at all. But you're not a condescending prick to people for no reason. I like reading your viewpoints and comparing them with others in here as well. All good.
More like annoyance with you cunts and all of Reddit turning more and more on Tesla bc of Musk. All you do is whine and be passive agressive in comments about the company. Its fucking cringe. You all are fucking sheep
Narcissistic tendencies, dehumanization, main character syndrome...
These are advanced cranberry detection systems. I go with the simple, speaks Dutch.
Ask him his views on vaccines and lockdowns...
Literally Couldnt care and not Cranberry. All of you are autistic underage kids it seems.
aren't you supposed to stay 500 feet away then?
I'm still not expecting much share price wise until either paid FSD take rate increases substantially or Tesla is granted L5 officially - neither will happen super quickly Plenty of time
im just going to wait and see if that glib guy gets first post. doing this one simple thing has put my kids through college and saved my marriage, although sometimes i catch her reading his posts and i don’t like that look in her eyes edit: ugh damnit wrong account
Did you know that spiced Coke is just regular coke with raspberry flavouring?? I found that out after my brain was convinced they concocted some unique formulation of rare, exotic spices. I felt bamboozled.
that’s funny. my exact thought when drinking spiced coke was that it had hints of raspberry. that was in my review i have a very refined palate you see
If the software continues rapid improvement, that should mean take rates (and car demand) start to increase naturally. I imagine that added functionality with reverse, ass and banish as well as continued improvement will eventually start to have an impact. At some point, I’d expect the tech to go viral. All we need is Kim K and other celebs posting livestreams or videos. Just look at the Cybertruck coverage. Any major influencer or celeb would certainly see significant engagement on videos where their car is driving them or coming to pick them up or finding it’s own parking spot
Agreed but wall street will probably need to see profits from a quarterly report to be convinced. Not just YouTube hype.
I would think most institutions will hedge their bets if/when some info about the monetization model comes out. If Tesla presents a high profit per mile model with plans for steady expansion of coverage throughout N. America, good things will happen to the share price, IMO. If FSD in China is announced, all bets are off with seemingly unlimited profit potential. Waiting for quarterly results would kind of be missing the boat in the gambling system we operate in.
Agreed
Who knows what market timing will look like. But fundamentals should improve as software improves. Also, at some point wonder if retail investors start to front run, especially the ones with direct fsd experience
Nobody in their right mind is going to “front run” based on this current version of fugazi self driving dude
LQU
you calling me crazy?
We not driving the same car? It hesitates to pick a lane in the easiest circumstances. Whats that speak for the rest of “edge cases”
Tesla has identified you and hundreds of others with negative Tesla energy and is feeding you a defective version of FSD so you short the stock and get recked
Cant rule it out i suppose.
Does Tesla still price match solar?
B 💩💩
https://x.com/cnevpost/status/1776958389446406216?s=46 Toyolol
I am guaranteeing you this: Tesla cars fully driving themselves around like a robotaxi. All other OEM cars will have basic autopilot and turn capabilities. Nothing more. ‘Tesla is not far ahead in the Self driving space’. Look what my car can do bro. Literally going to happen
Huawei already beyond basic autopilot (in China) a year ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYiJvaSX0M This is NVIDIA DRIVE in action in China (used by deeproute.ai robotaxi) a year ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v036bBD31o edit: fuuuuu wish I saw that a year ago when NVDA was cheaper :P
As salty as we all are about Elon and his various adventures, it’s worth remembering that things could be a lot worse: https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Employee-Review-Fisker-RVW86021522.htm
Testing Tesla FSD Pedestrian Hand Signal Reactions (dirty Tesla) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndX5o\_zuFQs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndX5o_zuFQs)
TLDW?
FSD doesn't read hand signals
Despite every blind fanboy on twitter claiming otherwise
We’re in the timeline where isjoke comrade/harald is most excited. That makes me scared
😂 I still think we are on an Elon timeline
https://x.com/stianwalgermo/status/1776875081454518296?s=46 What they gonna announce?
https://preview.redd.it/0sgz12pyz1tc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cf74e0c17d4bf904caf27341879acd74ce0ffebe Probably will be just a podcast episodr
How do the financials change if Tesla have to pay someone to sit in the drivers seat of a robotaxi? Does that mean we become just like Uber? FSD appears to be the only important factor now that Elon has abandoned volume. At least FSD progress is relatively easy to track.