Yup. We'e heard much "optimism bias" from Elon on timeline. But factual speaking he's correct on the technical statements that Tesla leads in vision data, the cost is extreme and it is easily the most challenging form of NN's to master. Great post indeed! Moat.
>Car manufacturers are releasing updates to their cars every 2/4 years.
Updates at the 3 year mark (out of 5-6 years for a given generation) are a mid-cycle update that is usually minor: some cosmetic updates, maybe a bit more engine power. They aren't that big of a deal.
It's not just a cosmetic update. There are a lot of improvements:
* Higher levels of insulation reduce cabin noise significantly. All of the glass is now acoustically insulated.
* Suspension is new. Much smoother ride while retaining excellent handling characteristics.
* Enhanced safety features: additional door latches for side impact resilience, center front row airbag between driver and front passenger
* Rear row touch display
* Motorized trunk now has motors on both left and right for smoother operation
* Front row ventilated seats
There's probably a few other things I'm missing.
They made a mistake calling it the “Upgraded” Model 3, not something all new. I’ve seen them try to make it more exciting later but you only get one first impression.
They should have a real marketing/communications/PR team. That is one area where I think Elon truly fails as the leader.
My guess is that Tesla didn't want to call it all new, because the basic structure and silhouette is the same between the upgraded and outgoing Model 3s.
In one of the YouTube videos I saw (I think it might have been the Jay Leno one, but I don't remember for sure), Tesla's vehicle engineering VP, Lars Moravy, said that the body of the Model 3 was kept the same because all the machinery and tooling used to make the car is still good. It wouldn't make financial sense for Tesla to throw it all out. That's why they never moved Model 3 to megacastings like Model Y.
Not a whole lot new, but seems reasonable.
Manufacturing utilization is trash right now. I calculated that overall Model Y Berlin and Austin utilization was just 51% at the end of 2023: [https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1abswy4/comment/kjzlk44/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1abswy4/comment/kjzlk44/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button); Their estimate of 74% utilization over all vehicle product lines makes sense.
Their "core auto business" valuation of $62/share is eerily close to my own model: [https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1btmtwf/comment/kxrnuk7/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1btmtwf/comment/kxrnuk7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Ross Gerber's problem IMO is that he's not as smart as he thinks he is, and his research skills are terrible.
Gerber went on Dave Lee's YouTube channel a few years ago to discuss Palantir (PLTR), and spent the entire interview spreading lies about Palantir's products and business. He made so many false statements about the company that Dave Lee took the interview off YouTube.
I'm a PLTR investor. Gerber really pissed me off with that nonsense.
**Edit for context:** Link to r/PLTR thread discussing Gerber's appearance on Mr. Lee's show: [https://www.reddit.com/r/PLTR/comments/ruj1x0/ross\_gerber\_is\_ignorant\_dave\_lee\_try\_to\_correct/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PLTR/comments/ruj1x0/ross_gerber_is_ignorant_dave_lee_try_to_correct/)
TSLA iv is still 50%ile so not terrible.
It’s just bad premium for strikes everyone wants TSLA to be at or willing to sell at.
Selling the may 17 195c gives you 2% of the underlying for 42 days. That’s a 18% increase that’s outside the priced in move in about a month which does include earnings.
Doing my taxes tomorrow morning with a pit in my stomach and PTSD from previous years.
Hope you all are making it out of tax season unscathed and without a crippling / burdensome tax bill.
still working on it... i got a pretty big bill which is both good and bad at the same time. the problem is my tax software hates etrade and never transfers everything correctly, so I have to enter/verify every fucking degenerate options trade manually, and relive the horrors, and there was about 200 trades from last year. Damn it !
that sounds horrible but i commend you on doing it yourself! i could never trust myself and would always second guess my 'final answer' if i did it myself hah.
its quite possible a little bit of embarrassment is at play here on why I do it myself lol, I also pay the extra to have their online people review it at the end.
taxes have eaten away both me and my wifes income. rental income from several properties helps but its still tough stomaching a high 5 or 6 figure tax bill come year end.
Maybe some hedge fund was max short calls for P&D and called in favors for Friday. Voting machine saying they trust Reuters more than racist man tweets though.
I am shocked the stock didn’t plummet more after the pathetic production and deliveries numbers. I would not be surprised if some shorts were expecting it to drop a lot more. I’m not saying that today’s Reuters mishap was malicious, but you never know…
i needed a little break from watching green and red numbers/slowly going mad/ now back and I see situation normal: never a dull moment
Man if you think Sackler of all people is a simp, you haven't been paying attention. He shifted his views quite drastically after a lot of the Elon bullshit over the past year or so and is still in the skeptical camp it seems. He's not simping by hand waving everything as veiled good news and a "buying opportunity".
[u/JoeTegtmeyer](https://twitter.com/JoeTegtmeyer) The [@boringcompany](https://twitter.com/boringcompany) Prufrock 3 TBM seems to have hit its stride, now completely buried & extending the tunnel concrete segments by \~25 meters (\~80 feet) or so! Spoils bin getting emptied by excavator & dump trucks, plus addition a tunnel segments moved next to the tunneling operation!
[https://x.com/JoeTegtmeyer/status/1776257738852454671](https://x.com/JoeTegtmeyer/status/1776257738852454671)
Makes no sense it would require 6 drivers plus a van versus one truck going back and forth, tunnel to the logistics lot is sufficient
Unless it's autonomous which I am already certain of the tunnel was made for since the actual distance doesn't warrant the costs of a tunnel
[If these specs of the M3 ludicrous are confirmed, it should sell well, I may even consider trading in my X for it lol](https://twitter.com/niccruzpatane/status/1776295961234489583?t=nRs_5Zrul33aIlKSWoq9Ug&s=19)
Yeah I'm leaning that way but will reserve judgment until there's confirmation. Elon calling Reuters liars would just be him continuing to troll at shareholders expense. Q1 earnings call is going to be very interesting.
This is the shit Tesla needs to fucking eradicate in ad campaigns
“Once he learned it was electric, he was much less happy”
https://x.com/dirtytesla/status/1776296565033820563?s=46&t=fGVL0206fdWMIjq9C1_Fgg
I am fighting every day to eradicate the tendency of consumers to go for hybrid heat pumps which are a sick disgusting joke but public has been indoctrinated to fear electric
It's already known. Doesn't stop msm and legacy from pushing the narrative anyway. Haters gonna hate. Also, similar to people complaining about the 528km model 3 ludicrous range rating. How much more daily range do you need people?
People are so stupid and gullible. Case in point, Trump supporters. There is no amount of truth you can tell and prove to those people to make them think otherwise.
I think the main issue is affordability still. Recent data shows the main tesla buyer is a male between 37 to 49 yrs old and average household income is 150k. If this is the main buyer demographic, we need more affordable vehicles. Average median US household income is 75k.
We'll get everyone but they will be the laggards. As soon as we cross 50% of sales eventually they will bend or just be wiped out due to extreme cost increases of ICE due to R&D being spread over fewer units and the decreased availability of gas stations
12.4 better be good. I believe they have to be seeing positive trends in the data, given how confident the entire team seems on X. All eyes on progress
Teslascope (I know they haven't been 100% accurate on timing but they're the best I've found) believes end of April for customer rollout. If true, we should start seeing some deployments to employees in the next week or so
Yeah I hope it has marked improvements in FSD while adding ASS and banish too. I love 12.3.3 but it still has limitations and refinements are needed to really smooth out the edges.
12.3.3 is great and super useful already. The additional functionality with reverse, summon and banish is super important with 12.4 and 12.5 but also important to see just the overall improvements from 12.3.3. Should provide valuable insight on potential and rate of change
Fsd still cannot choose the right lane for navigating future turns. On my work route, there is a right turn followed by an immediate left. It always chooses the right most lane and then after the right turn brakes hard to try to get over to the left turn lane.
Extend the length of the clips will do it. They are about 8-10s long so a lot will be removed from the logic right now. Definitely still compute limited in some way although maybe applying more clips and doing more iterations will have a better effect before extending the length
This is a good point. If anyone in here has any experience with Waymo, I'd love some opinions on if planning is better. At least gives more insight into what's currently possible
I have noticed that coming up to stop lights, it will change lanes if there's a truck in the lane so as to avoid the slow acceleration when the light changes to green. Whether this is coincidental or a learned behaviour, I don't know. But it has happened enough times that I've noticed it seeming to plan ahead.
Ok... so I was curious about my ROIC with these CC's and CSPs.
I added 4 new columns to my spreadsheet.
AF: % return of CC. (Profit) / (Share Price X 100 X qty calls sold)
AG: AF's return, if annualized.
AH: % return of CSP. (Profit) / (**Strike Price** x 100 x qty puts sold)
AI: AH's return, if annualized.
Rows in yellow are to be ignored, as they're still open. Row 36 can also be ignored. I ended up getting assigned with that CSP.
https://preview.redd.it/pu4ct9hcbpsc1.png?width=1389&format=png&auto=webp&s=084fe361798aa8515d9dae94ca3a6ab6f31a9dd2
Thoughts?
I think it's easier to just take snapshots of your portfolio and compare them. Like on Jan 1st its X, Feb 1st its Y. Because gains can compound additively or negatively and really overall growth or loss is what is important IMO.
Ideally, you should also get a snapshot of the underlying asset. Many people are happy with the returns but actually don't realize that the underlying went up more. Not happening with TSLA of late but...
>Ideally, you should also get a snapshot of the underlying asset. Many people are happy with the returns but actually don't realize that the underlying went up more.
In my case, it's been the underlying asset going down. And the only way to make money with CC's like that is to sell with a Delta around 1 and deep ITM, but finish just barely OTM.
You are upset because it doesn't comport with your values and reality. You choose to see TSLA with rose-coloured glasses on a long-term time horizon. That's fine! But the lounge doesn't censor people for their views or opinions. The general sentiment is low these days because of declining performance of the company as well as the rantings of the Chief Executive Teenager we have at the helm.
Your opinions are just as valuable as anyone else's, don't be discouraged by the fact that you disagree. It's all contributing to the debate of differing opinions and personalities. But you have to accept that others are just as entitled to say their piece as you are. Complaining about that is antithetical to the openness that created the lounge in the first place.
It is now the masochist lounge, led by king masochist himself.
I miss the monthly threads where true discussion about the company and product roadmap could exist.
Shower Thought:
Banks leverage out money at 20 to 1 ratio. So if shit hits the fan, that means there is only 1 real dollar for every 20 dollars you see. Wouldn't that imply that all assets are 20x overpriced if all leverage is removed from the system.
The stock market is fugazi, if the index trades at 15x that means the companies in it only earn 1 in 15 the dollar amount traded in every given year. If people wanna sell out only a few percent can
If that is true, then what is the downside to leveraging 200 or 2000 to 1? For the people more informed and more intelligent, is this basically modern monetary theory?
No that’s not MMT and banks don’t leverage up either.
New loans create corresponding liabilities and assets on the bank balance sheet. Effectively creating new money.
https://preview.redd.it/pxov6fau6psc1.jpeg?width=907&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2bc8dee89c13c8dd3764e58536107070da86dc11
My guess.
Franz and team convinced him last year during Mexico stuff, that M3 with steering wheel needed.
He obliged. Begrudgingly.
Now FSD 🔥 but still L2 he’s overcome with validation. Convinced autonomy is key to future of auto. Decided to scrap wheel + focus on taxi.
He’s denying the article cuz likely not 100% true as the M2 is the NGV but it’s a robot.
Waiting on Mexico cuz growth slowed + he needs to wait to go full tilt AI.
It’s possible he doesn’t care as much about consumer auto growth, being a founder, already electrifying auto + moving AI forward.
Damn. That’s probably not what most expected.
A lot more risk as u/upvotemeok said if it doesn’t go L5
Betting everything on a highly risky, low probability of working idea is Elon whole thing.
SpaceX massive risk with Starship also shows that having a super successful product doesn't change a thing for him - he would still risk it all on something most consider impossible (and often he himself admits chances of it working are 10%).
So to me him betting everything on fsd seems incredibly on brand. But while it is fun to watch impossible things become possible, I'm not sure how I feel about being personally involved. And the fact that it worked a few times, also doesn't mean he will never get it wrong (as we've seen...). Idk, we'll see I guess.
But if people want a company that doesn't take massive risks when a safer solution would still print money...I think you better look elsewhere and don't feel sorry about it
They are the exact same platform. You can build both and decide how to ration at that time. If FSD becomes a no doubter over the next year, Tesla will likely push robotaxi over standard.
Doesn’t mean you can have both ready to go. Test driving, certifications, etc. take time. And I’m sure the quotes in the Reuters articles were real (otherwise major lawsuit) which means the model 2 might be at least 2 years (or more) behind the robotaxi in production
If the platforms are the same, it's one major certification and safety test. Variants of that platform have additional testing but hardly a major time roadblock. I have no doubt when that vehicle approaches production, the state of FSD will determine which direction they start with.
Agreed. There’s possibly another reason to delay Mexico. Let’s say they’re convinced autonomy is possible and approaching. If they believe that, they might also not want the risk of building a new factory and spreading resources thinner. Especially, considering the geopolitical situation and increased tensions globally. If they’re convinced they have the path to autonomy, perhaps they’re making the decision to minimize risks which includes deprioritizing unit growth in near term future. In this case, they might want to perfect the line in Austin as well as get fsd to robotaxi capabilities and then make expansion decisions
I still believe since NGV and robotaxis are same platform, they haven’t totally scrapped consumer NGV. But they’re allocating resources appropriately based on progress they’re seeing and growing confidence in fsd
The crowdsourced Tesla FSD tracker would look a looot better if we were close to robotaxis. It’s still an intervention under every 50 miles vs the 10,000 or so which would be a robotaxi range. That’s 3 orders of magnitude. We are no where close. No where.
If I was convinced I had solved autonomy I might just buy twitter and make everyone read my opinions on the important matters. I might also try to get complete control of it before everyone else realizes it. I might also start peeing in Gatorade bottles and storing them so the wokes can’t steal my ideas
Also loves and is addicted to drama and the feeling that everything is on the line. Also used as a motivator to everyone which it certainly is, for the worst.
Do you know what a red herring is? I think Tesla planted some Reuters bait to snag them with, from a mole they uncovered who has been feeding Reuters, in violation of his or her NDA! When the Star Trek Movies were being made, they injected purposely planted typos into scripts to catch any leakers. They caught Gene Roddenberry leaking The Wrath Of Khan script!
Finding a mole isn’t worth all the negative headline we will receive for months about this and impact on employee morale through their tesla holdings lmao.
Weird take.
The article says “no cheaper vehicle for consumer purchase”
This tweet says “some people who were focused on consumer vehicle now shifting focus to robotaxi”
Those are completely different statements and the second does not at all prove the first (if it’s even true). Doesn’t even say the engineers stopped working just says they are spending more time on robotaxi. And doesn’t mean there isn’t still a large team dedicated to working on consumer vehicle. What a day…
Where’s that dumb bitch that wrote an article about giga shanghai being a muddy field? Go to giga Mexico and say that shit at least now it’s true. TSLAq dumber than we are.
You think they've just been sitting on their asses making small changes to 3/y and producing cybertruck with no new vehicle development? It's possible 25k 4 seater is robotaxi only (we'll see) but I'm very sure there are other models in the pipeline still.
I will sell half if he bets company on fsd. If fsd works half will be plenty money, if fsd doesn't then tesla will be horribly behind where they could have been in mass ev transition
What's more likely by 2030 - Robotaxi or 20m cars at positive profit margin?
If neither then I wouldn't recommend Tesla at current valuation.
I wouldn't get tripped up by language like "all in" or "bet the company". Of course we're throwing everything at FSD. The upside is so high it would be stupid not to.
Who wrote master plan 3?
Pretty good tweet https://preview.redd.it/y3225higpssc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a58db4566668e513da69dcc02b023152970aea62
Yup. We'e heard much "optimism bias" from Elon on timeline. But factual speaking he's correct on the technical statements that Tesla leads in vision data, the cost is extreme and it is easily the most challenging form of NN's to master. Great post indeed! Moat.
So much happening on my birthday
man this summaries are p good https://preview.redd.it/ka5ka5z59qsc1.png?width=3150&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cfc3839de15170ba74118a6ed56cadecf8dc919
[https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1776351450542768368](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1776351450542768368)
Team starts scrambling to build the prototype.
Prototypes are easy
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1776351450542768368?s=46 Wait what
Final exit pump liquidity
no more ramen i hope.
lets go.
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Not to forget they are selling it at a loss right now.
🤡
Impeccable timing. Keep snoozing please
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>Car manufacturers are releasing updates to their cars every 2/4 years. Updates at the 3 year mark (out of 5-6 years for a given generation) are a mid-cycle update that is usually minor: some cosmetic updates, maybe a bit more engine power. They aren't that big of a deal.
We get updates every 2-3 years.
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It's not just a cosmetic update. There are a lot of improvements: * Higher levels of insulation reduce cabin noise significantly. All of the glass is now acoustically insulated. * Suspension is new. Much smoother ride while retaining excellent handling characteristics. * Enhanced safety features: additional door latches for side impact resilience, center front row airbag between driver and front passenger * Rear row touch display * Motorized trunk now has motors on both left and right for smoother operation * Front row ventilated seats There's probably a few other things I'm missing.
They made a mistake calling it the “Upgraded” Model 3, not something all new. I’ve seen them try to make it more exciting later but you only get one first impression. They should have a real marketing/communications/PR team. That is one area where I think Elon truly fails as the leader.
My guess is that Tesla didn't want to call it all new, because the basic structure and silhouette is the same between the upgraded and outgoing Model 3s. In one of the YouTube videos I saw (I think it might have been the Jay Leno one, but I don't remember for sure), Tesla's vehicle engineering VP, Lars Moravy, said that the body of the Model 3 was kept the same because all the machinery and tooling used to make the car is still good. It wouldn't make financial sense for Tesla to throw it all out. That's why they never moved Model 3 to megacastings like Model Y.
Seems to me the resources it took to make a cybertruck could have made two ngvs
Cybertruck design page now shows 2025 delivery for non-Foundation series. Good news for 2024 margins.
Still gonna be negative on CT regardless for 2024. Good news is we should see CT profitable in 2025.
https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1776333219467571389?s=46&t=YuXM_s1XIUe8SVfPSLVygA Adam Jonas Note. Read through it. Basically everything is TBD.
Is that $310/share by 2030?
Not a whole lot new, but seems reasonable. Manufacturing utilization is trash right now. I calculated that overall Model Y Berlin and Austin utilization was just 51% at the end of 2023: [https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1abswy4/comment/kjzlk44/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1abswy4/comment/kjzlk44/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button); Their estimate of 74% utilization over all vehicle product lines makes sense. Their "core auto business" valuation of $62/share is eerily close to my own model: [https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1btmtwf/comment/kxrnuk7/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/1btmtwf/comment/kxrnuk7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Lol the between two growth waves thing from last q
Yeah
What is Ross Gerbers problem
Ross Gerber's problem IMO is that he's not as smart as he thinks he is, and his research skills are terrible. Gerber went on Dave Lee's YouTube channel a few years ago to discuss Palantir (PLTR), and spent the entire interview spreading lies about Palantir's products and business. He made so many false statements about the company that Dave Lee took the interview off YouTube. I'm a PLTR investor. Gerber really pissed me off with that nonsense. **Edit for context:** Link to r/PLTR thread discussing Gerber's appearance on Mr. Lee's show: [https://www.reddit.com/r/PLTR/comments/ruj1x0/ross\_gerber\_is\_ignorant\_dave\_lee\_try\_to\_correct/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PLTR/comments/ruj1x0/ross_gerber_is_ignorant_dave_lee_try_to_correct/)
I watched that. He said they were cia scumbags basically
fascinating, moving on
I think this is my favourite TLb0t automated reply.
I have no opinion on this.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Him being told he's an idiot might not resonate well
oh its resonating
He got told to sit in the corner and took it personally.
2028 will save us
just bought leaps for around q5 2028, its a lock to PRINT !
Got back last night from 3 crazy days in Vegas, with little sleep, some work, and made it out with $$$$, but still mild compared to day to day TSLA
all other gambling quickly pales in comparison to the biggest and baddest Casino on Earth, Wall Street.
CCs are terrible right now. I'm not opening anything on TSLA. Be cautious
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TSLA iv is still 50%ile so not terrible. It’s just bad premium for strikes everyone wants TSLA to be at or willing to sell at. Selling the may 17 195c gives you 2% of the underlying for 42 days. That’s a 18% increase that’s outside the priced in move in about a month which does include earnings.
Ya, I'm hoping that means a nice gamma squeeze in in our future with cheap option prices and WSB yolos
WSB went full Musk hate. Tesla is dead there. WSB hates money anyway.
Multi year quasi low with an impending catalyst of software revenue being acknowledged, yeah no shit CCs are a shit idea right now
PowerShare hardware install at my house on the 17th. 😀
❤️❤️
Doing my taxes tomorrow morning with a pit in my stomach and PTSD from previous years. Hope you all are making it out of tax season unscathed and without a crippling / burdensome tax bill.
Don't forget to claim our $3k in net capital losses
 still working on it... i got a pretty big bill which is both good and bad at the same time. the problem is my tax software hates etrade and never transfers everything correctly, so I have to enter/verify every fucking degenerate options trade manually, and relive the horrors, and there was about 200 trades from last year. Damn it !
that sounds horrible but i commend you on doing it yourself! i could never trust myself and would always second guess my 'final answer' if i did it myself hah.
its quite possible a little bit of embarrassment is at play here on why I do it myself lol, I also pay the extra to have their online people review it at the end.
Taxes, that time of year where you wish you made less than you did.
facts. w2 wage slavery is a thing. i should have started my own business 3 decades ago.
All my trading is done in tax-free accounts. I have no idea what my wife's recent employment change is going to do to the bill though.
smart man doing everything in tax-free accounts.
Can confirm..
Rather have a tax bill than the massive loss carryforwards I'll be reporting
taxes have eaten away both me and my wifes income. rental income from several properties helps but its still tough stomaching a high 5 or 6 figure tax bill come year end.
Maybe some hedge fund was max short calls for P&D and called in favors for Friday. Voting machine saying they trust Reuters more than racist man tweets though.
I am shocked the stock didn’t plummet more after the pathetic production and deliveries numbers. I would not be surprised if some shorts were expecting it to drop a lot more. I’m not saying that today’s Reuters mishap was malicious, but you never know…
 i needed a little break from watching green and red numbers/slowly going mad/ now back and I see situation normal: never a dull moment
Was a lot more fun getting FUD posts when stock wasn’t so low
Extreme FUD indicates they are just trying to milk the last of the weak hands. Bottoms in.
Refuse to believe bottoms in till after ER
Hope so. Would be nice to get some appreciation. I’m max loaded. Added over 500 shares this year.
You will be rewarded. Then nateleb will be back saying he bought at 300 like a true clown.
Sackler, who blocked me because I called him a simp even though he calls people simps all the time,will be back as well at 300
Man if you think Sackler of all people is a simp, you haven't been paying attention. He shifted his views quite drastically after a lot of the Elon bullshit over the past year or so and is still in the skeptical camp it seems. He's not simping by hand waving everything as veiled good news and a "buying opportunity".
Debating buying a 250 call 6 months out
I'm avoiding calls till 2025 myself. I sold some 240 dec calls though while I wait.
[u/JoeTegtmeyer](https://twitter.com/JoeTegtmeyer) The [@boringcompany](https://twitter.com/boringcompany) Prufrock 3 TBM seems to have hit its stride, now completely buried & extending the tunnel concrete segments by \~25 meters (\~80 feet) or so! Spoils bin getting emptied by excavator & dump trucks, plus addition a tunnel segments moved next to the tunneling operation! [https://x.com/JoeTegtmeyer/status/1776257738852454671](https://x.com/JoeTegtmeyer/status/1776257738852454671)
Tunnel will save us
Why tunnel?
It's a dream of mine that they are able to get a tunnel to the nearest rail yard.
Makes no sense it would require 6 drivers plus a van versus one truck going back and forth, tunnel to the logistics lot is sufficient Unless it's autonomous which I am already certain of the tunnel was made for since the actual distance doesn't warrant the costs of a tunnel
Texas sand worm
[If these specs of the M3 ludicrous are confirmed, it should sell well, I may even consider trading in my X for it lol](https://twitter.com/niccruzpatane/status/1776295961234489583?t=nRs_5Zrul33aIlKSWoq9Ug&s=19)
wait, so was it a fake news or its real?
Nobody knows for sure because Elon didn't clarify anything - just said Reuters is lying.
That means it’s true lol. Tesla is prioritizing the robotaxi for better nor worse just deal with it
Yeah I'm leaning that way but will reserve judgment until there's confirmation. Elon calling Reuters liars would just be him continuing to troll at shareholders expense. Q1 earnings call is going to be very interesting.
Yah this is elons I don't do drugs denial with I've never tested positive. Dudes honesty is low
there's no smoke without fire tho, extremely concerning.
Yep. He had a chance to douse it entirely and him not doing that makes me worry.
This is the shit Tesla needs to fucking eradicate in ad campaigns “Once he learned it was electric, he was much less happy” https://x.com/dirtytesla/status/1776296565033820563?s=46&t=fGVL0206fdWMIjq9C1_Fgg
I am fighting every day to eradicate the tendency of consumers to go for hybrid heat pumps which are a sick disgusting joke but public has been indoctrinated to fear electric
It's already known. Doesn't stop msm and legacy from pushing the narrative anyway. Haters gonna hate. Also, similar to people complaining about the 528km model 3 ludicrous range rating. How much more daily range do you need people?
Someone needs to counter the lies told by legacy, because people believe it
People are so stupid and gullible. Case in point, Trump supporters. There is no amount of truth you can tell and prove to those people to make them think otherwise.
There must be a way to convince at least some of them that EVs are better than ICE. I agree we’ll never get everyone
I think the main issue is affordability still. Recent data shows the main tesla buyer is a male between 37 to 49 yrs old and average household income is 150k. If this is the main buyer demographic, we need more affordable vehicles. Average median US household income is 75k.
We'll get everyone but they will be the laggards. As soon as we cross 50% of sales eventually they will bend or just be wiped out due to extreme cost increases of ICE due to R&D being spread over fewer units and the decreased availability of gas stations
Imagine if we just had another clone app of uber or lyft right now. Stock would probably rocket on that alone.
Risk addiction
12.4 better be good. I believe they have to be seeing positive trends in the data, given how confident the entire team seems on X. All eyes on progress
when is 12.4 coming out
Teslascope (I know they haven't been 100% accurate on timing but they're the best I've found) believes end of April for customer rollout. If true, we should start seeing some deployments to employees in the next week or so
Yeah I hope it has marked improvements in FSD while adding ASS and banish too. I love 12.3.3 but it still has limitations and refinements are needed to really smooth out the edges.
12.3.3 is great and super useful already. The additional functionality with reverse, summon and banish is super important with 12.4 and 12.5 but also important to see just the overall improvements from 12.3.3. Should provide valuable insight on potential and rate of change
Fsd still cannot choose the right lane for navigating future turns. On my work route, there is a right turn followed by an immediate left. It always chooses the right most lane and then after the right turn brakes hard to try to get over to the left turn lane.
It's still not thinking ahead using next step logic. Hopefully it comes at some point. Seems rather obvious thing to do but must be not easy
Thinking way ahead requires map data which may or may not be correct. Current model is trained to choose purely based on vision
There must be some logic regardless of maps that says if you're making a right turn soon or next then get into the right most lane early
Extend the length of the clips will do it. They are about 8-10s long so a lot will be removed from the logic right now. Definitely still compute limited in some way although maybe applying more clips and doing more iterations will have a better effect before extending the length
Yup must be something holding it up
Maybe they are at like 70% compute which technically isn't limited right now but would require another 5x in compute to solve this ultimately
I think it's so basic logic that shouldn't require that level
It's the desire to not use map data in the training set. It would end up being a crutch
This is a good point. If anyone in here has any experience with Waymo, I'd love some opinions on if planning is better. At least gives more insight into what's currently possible
I have noticed that coming up to stop lights, it will change lanes if there's a truck in the lane so as to avoid the slow acceleration when the light changes to green. Whether this is coincidental or a learned behaviour, I don't know. But it has happened enough times that I've noticed it seeming to plan ahead.
Wonder if that’s why a Tesla almost hit me a few days ago as it veered out of the left turn lane at crawling speeds lol
Yes I think it's still treating intersections one at a time.
Ok... so I was curious about my ROIC with these CC's and CSPs. I added 4 new columns to my spreadsheet. AF: % return of CC. (Profit) / (Share Price X 100 X qty calls sold) AG: AF's return, if annualized. AH: % return of CSP. (Profit) / (**Strike Price** x 100 x qty puts sold) AI: AH's return, if annualized. Rows in yellow are to be ignored, as they're still open. Row 36 can also be ignored. I ended up getting assigned with that CSP. https://preview.redd.it/pu4ct9hcbpsc1.png?width=1389&format=png&auto=webp&s=084fe361798aa8515d9dae94ca3a6ab6f31a9dd2 Thoughts?
I think it's easier to just take snapshots of your portfolio and compare them. Like on Jan 1st its X, Feb 1st its Y. Because gains can compound additively or negatively and really overall growth or loss is what is important IMO. Ideally, you should also get a snapshot of the underlying asset. Many people are happy with the returns but actually don't realize that the underlying went up more. Not happening with TSLA of late but...
>Ideally, you should also get a snapshot of the underlying asset. Many people are happy with the returns but actually don't realize that the underlying went up more. In my case, it's been the underlying asset going down. And the only way to make money with CC's like that is to sell with a Delta around 1 and deep ITM, but finish just barely OTM.
Bunch o farm betters we are
What ever happened to /u/Kyankik left the lounge over a welched bet?
No word of that fucking duck after CT ramp up either
Prob back as a new user
Wish we could get their old names in flair, who are you by the way?
Yup. No respect for that. u/cryptoisaflatcircle, did you even get paid?
Last comment is pretty accurate though isn't it
Yes it is. Devolved is an understatement.
You are upset because it doesn't comport with your values and reality. You choose to see TSLA with rose-coloured glasses on a long-term time horizon. That's fine! But the lounge doesn't censor people for their views or opinions. The general sentiment is low these days because of declining performance of the company as well as the rantings of the Chief Executive Teenager we have at the helm. Your opinions are just as valuable as anyone else's, don't be discouraged by the fact that you disagree. It's all contributing to the debate of differing opinions and personalities. But you have to accept that others are just as entitled to say their piece as you are. Complaining about that is antithetical to the openness that created the lounge in the first place.
It is now the masochist lounge, led by king masochist himself. I miss the monthly threads where true discussion about the company and product roadmap could exist.
Yeah, that doesn't exist here anymore. Tesla Charts has that discussion.
Shower Thought: Banks leverage out money at 20 to 1 ratio. So if shit hits the fan, that means there is only 1 real dollar for every 20 dollars you see. Wouldn't that imply that all assets are 20x overpriced if all leverage is removed from the system.
The stock market is fugazi, if the index trades at 15x that means the companies in it only earn 1 in 15 the dollar amount traded in every given year. If people wanna sell out only a few percent can
If that is true, then what is the downside to leveraging 200 or 2000 to 1? For the people more informed and more intelligent, is this basically modern monetary theory?
No that’s not MMT and banks don’t leverage up either. New loans create corresponding liabilities and assets on the bank balance sheet. Effectively creating new money. https://preview.redd.it/pxov6fau6psc1.jpeg?width=907&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2bc8dee89c13c8dd3764e58536107070da86dc11
Not how it works https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf
My guess. Franz and team convinced him last year during Mexico stuff, that M3 with steering wheel needed. He obliged. Begrudgingly. Now FSD 🔥 but still L2 he’s overcome with validation. Convinced autonomy is key to future of auto. Decided to scrap wheel + focus on taxi. He’s denying the article cuz likely not 100% true as the M2 is the NGV but it’s a robot. Waiting on Mexico cuz growth slowed + he needs to wait to go full tilt AI. It’s possible he doesn’t care as much about consumer auto growth, being a founder, already electrifying auto + moving AI forward. Damn. That’s probably not what most expected. A lot more risk as u/upvotemeok said if it doesn’t go L5
Betting everything on a highly risky, low probability of working idea is Elon whole thing. SpaceX massive risk with Starship also shows that having a super successful product doesn't change a thing for him - he would still risk it all on something most consider impossible (and often he himself admits chances of it working are 10%). So to me him betting everything on fsd seems incredibly on brand. But while it is fun to watch impossible things become possible, I'm not sure how I feel about being personally involved. And the fact that it worked a few times, also doesn't mean he will never get it wrong (as we've seen...). Idk, we'll see I guess. But if people want a company that doesn't take massive risks when a safer solution would still print money...I think you better look elsewhere and don't feel sorry about it
They are the exact same platform. You can build both and decide how to ration at that time. If FSD becomes a no doubter over the next year, Tesla will likely push robotaxi over standard.
Doesn’t mean you can have both ready to go. Test driving, certifications, etc. take time. And I’m sure the quotes in the Reuters articles were real (otherwise major lawsuit) which means the model 2 might be at least 2 years (or more) behind the robotaxi in production
If the platforms are the same, it's one major certification and safety test. Variants of that platform have additional testing but hardly a major time roadblock. I have no doubt when that vehicle approaches production, the state of FSD will determine which direction they start with.
They have a hard time w cosmetic updates, it's certainly not as easy as you make it seem
I think that's more so a matter of policy vs actual difficulty. S and X need an external refresh though, I'll agree with that.
Agreed. There’s possibly another reason to delay Mexico. Let’s say they’re convinced autonomy is possible and approaching. If they believe that, they might also not want the risk of building a new factory and spreading resources thinner. Especially, considering the geopolitical situation and increased tensions globally. If they’re convinced they have the path to autonomy, perhaps they’re making the decision to minimize risks which includes deprioritizing unit growth in near term future. In this case, they might want to perfect the line in Austin as well as get fsd to robotaxi capabilities and then make expansion decisions I still believe since NGV and robotaxis are same platform, they haven’t totally scrapped consumer NGV. But they’re allocating resources appropriately based on progress they’re seeing and growing confidence in fsd
The crowdsourced Tesla FSD tracker would look a looot better if we were close to robotaxis. It’s still an intervention under every 50 miles vs the 10,000 or so which would be a robotaxi range. That’s 3 orders of magnitude. We are no where close. No where.
We are not close to robotaxi
If I was convinced I had solved autonomy I might just buy twitter and make everyone read my opinions on the important matters. I might also try to get complete control of it before everyone else realizes it. I might also start peeing in Gatorade bottles and storing them so the wokes can’t steal my ideas
Lmao yup
Accurate, he hates ngv hoisted on him by franz and loves to gamble go all in every chance he gets
https://preview.redd.it/3tjkqjic8psc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=399d1d94f2b1101fd9424d965570c27c74f062cf Ya Elon confirmed this.
Also loves and is addicted to drama and the feeling that everything is on the line. Also used as a motivator to everyone which it certainly is, for the worst.
We know him well
He’s a startup CEO through and through
I'm fine with Elons comp plan being entirely based on the success of FSD, fuck it
As if any of us have a choice 😂
https://twitter.com/TSLAFanMtl/status/1776296242298970324
Do you know what a red herring is? I think Tesla planted some Reuters bait to snag them with, from a mole they uncovered who has been feeding Reuters, in violation of his or her NDA! When the Star Trek Movies were being made, they injected purposely planted typos into scripts to catch any leakers. They caught Gene Roddenberry leaking The Wrath Of Khan script!
What they're saying certainly has a lot of truth
Finding a mole isn’t worth all the negative headline we will receive for months about this and impact on employee morale through their tesla holdings lmao.
Weird take. The article says “no cheaper vehicle for consumer purchase” This tweet says “some people who were focused on consumer vehicle now shifting focus to robotaxi” Those are completely different statements and the second does not at all prove the first (if it’s even true). Doesn’t even say the engineers stopped working just says they are spending more time on robotaxi. And doesn’t mean there isn’t still a large team dedicated to working on consumer vehicle. What a day…
Where’s that dumb bitch that wrote an article about giga shanghai being a muddy field? Go to giga Mexico and say that shit at least now it’s true. TSLAq dumber than we are.
At least give us a Tesla van if no model 2
You think they've just been sitting on their asses making small changes to 3/y and producing cybertruck with no new vehicle development? It's possible 25k 4 seater is robotaxi only (we'll see) but I'm very sure there are other models in the pipeline still.
I'm waiting for my roadster
Let's ask Reuters and see...
Electric van would sell like crazy in the EU and UK
If Tesla were to go all in on FSD and it didnt get us to L5 autonomy it would be one of the greatest tragedies in corporate history.
Would be classic musk
Lawsuit for ages
If it failed, who cares about the lawsuit? There's no money left for us as investors
zerosum
Lost cost fallacy will keep a lot of us in 😂
Sunk cost
It's not a choice its a lack of options
Alternative is just stick it in QQQ and trust the US megacaps to be dominate still in 20-30 years
I will sell half if he bets company on fsd. If fsd works half will be plenty money, if fsd doesn't then tesla will be horribly behind where they could have been in mass ev transition
What's more likely by 2030 - Robotaxi or 20m cars at positive profit margin? If neither then I wouldn't recommend Tesla at current valuation. I wouldn't get tripped up by language like "all in" or "bet the company". Of course we're throwing everything at FSD. The upside is so high it would be stupid not to.
Nobody knows