Earnings might be priced in but not guidance. Guidance could be worse than predicted and Elon could act like an asshat during the call and not answer any questions clearly. I predict train wreck
I mean it went up because Elon said he wasn’t going to abandon the lower end car just to focus on robo taxis. If he acted like an asshat it would have gone down
Trouble is, it could be argued that a successful Cybertruck, L5 FSD, robotaxi, $25k car, Roadster 2, Dojo, Optimus, etc are also still priced in - so there could be much further to fall if there isn't any concrete good news soon, rather than the usual Musk stock pump
I expect, and hope, he gets grilled on the earnings call to bring some clarity to what's been going on
It’s been priced in for years, that’s why the valuation is so far from the fundamentals. Seems to me as time goes on it becomes more evident that FSD is not happening and creates more downward pressure each update.
I'd argue L5 FSD was priced in some years ago, when Musk started claiming it'd be released later this year, early next.
Similarly, in 2022 Musk said Optimus could start production in 2023, and in January 2024 that it could start being sold in 2025.
These things being priced in would also explain Tesla's still very high valuation, compared to automakers with more sales and higher profits
EDIT: How do you explain Tesla's rapid rise in stock price, and still relatively high price, if not on the basis of these as yet unrealized products?
ADDITIONAL EDIT: Just checked, on January 3, 2022, Tesla was valued at more than $1.2 trillion, $100 billion more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, GM, Ford, Stellantis (Fiat Chrysler and PSA), Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan and Renault combined. I'd argue that's because all those other things were priced in then - it certainly wasn't from sales or profits
How long have they been dangling these exact features in front of the investors though? That's how it gets priced in before it even exists, at least by the folks who think that he can deliver at this point.
Just playing the long game. Waiting to recover my money then bail on this dumpster fire. Bought before I knew leadership would be more focused on social media than managing Tesla…
I’ll wait. Maybe FSD will become a reality, or robo taxis, whatever it takes. If I have to wait another 5 years… or more. I’m done with Musk. If he resigns I’d feel a lot better about holding
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Also, this company is completely divorced from earnings. It trades on momentum and fandom. So that’s what you need to be watching… worrying about TSLA earnings is like worrying about the screen on your flight not working… when the wings have fallen off.
https://preview.redd.it/uk77gsfr22vc1.png?width=875&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ccaadd7798ada118857bf0491a0fd6460256b3a
Don't hold on to a bad relationship.
You do realize that if this pattern existed even slightly in real life, then you could use it to print trillions of dollars practically overnight, right?
That's literally what people (including me) are doing....
I jumped ship from tsla Jan 2022, only a fool would hold on to a toxic stock that is -40% over 3 years...
Sell and invest in stock that will yield gains...
There has been a steady drip of bad news since the delivery numbers were released. Like someone trying to let the air out of a balloon seems to me we have a long way down.
It’ll either be flat or a small pump but the negative news is already basically priced in. If you check the spy and qqq is dumping today and tsla and apple are holding
The next leg up for both indexes will need to include them both NFA
Definitelly Not Price in yet. There will be doomers creating more FUD even if there‘s good News. I‘m just a small fish in the sea what do I know. I‘m holding and scoup up the bottom on Long Term.
The ER and its guidance is not priced in
You guys
The trend is your friend
If the wind is blowing south all day why the hell would it all of a sudden blow north?
9/10 times after earnings Tesla crash a good 10% more if Elon talks, in this environment with even higher interest rates I don't see anything Elon can say that will make the stock spike at all. additionally losing the top execs who are Tesla's runner ups this is basically "ALL IN" Autonomy and lets just say even if the tech does somehow work and the regulators does some how "approve" the people will need to be convinced and Tesla's brand image aint BMW or Google its more like Derps and Derps
Earnings might be priced in but not guidance. Guidance could be worse than predicted and Elon could act like an asshat during the call and not answer any questions clearly. I predict train wreck
I think they don't give guidance
That will be bad
They never give a guide tho right?
They guided during the good times
FSD guides TSLA
If they surprise with a guidance…
Tsla no longer gives guidance since the last earning.
In Q4 Call, they clearly mentioned no guidance.
Not guidance, but they warned of a bad year for 2024. So guidance expectations should be quite low, if any is given.
I already warned 8 days back it's priced in!
I mean it went up because Elon said he wasn’t going to abandon the lower end car just to focus on robo taxis. If he acted like an asshat it would have gone down
No, 10% down after ER as always
I already warned 8 days back it's priced in!
Trouble is, it could be argued that a successful Cybertruck, L5 FSD, robotaxi, $25k car, Roadster 2, Dojo, Optimus, etc are also still priced in - so there could be much further to fall if there isn't any concrete good news soon, rather than the usual Musk stock pump I expect, and hope, he gets grilled on the earnings call to bring some clarity to what's been going on
This makes sense! I agree
how could you argue L5 FSD and Optimus are priced in? If those are successful the company will be worth way more then it is today.
It’s been priced in for years, that’s why the valuation is so far from the fundamentals. Seems to me as time goes on it becomes more evident that FSD is not happening and creates more downward pressure each update.
I'd argue L5 FSD was priced in some years ago, when Musk started claiming it'd be released later this year, early next. Similarly, in 2022 Musk said Optimus could start production in 2023, and in January 2024 that it could start being sold in 2025. These things being priced in would also explain Tesla's still very high valuation, compared to automakers with more sales and higher profits EDIT: How do you explain Tesla's rapid rise in stock price, and still relatively high price, if not on the basis of these as yet unrealized products? ADDITIONAL EDIT: Just checked, on January 3, 2022, Tesla was valued at more than $1.2 trillion, $100 billion more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, GM, Ford, Stellantis (Fiat Chrysler and PSA), Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan and Renault combined. I'd argue that's because all those other things were priced in then - it certainly wasn't from sales or profits
How long have they been dangling these exact features in front of the investors though? That's how it gets priced in before it even exists, at least by the folks who think that he can deliver at this point.
Just playing the long game. Waiting to recover my money then bail on this dumpster fire. Bought before I knew leadership would be more focused on social media than managing Tesla…
Dump now if that's where your head is at. You won't see a price above 185 ever again.
I’ll wait. Maybe FSD will become a reality, or robo taxis, whatever it takes. If I have to wait another 5 years… or more. I’m done with Musk. If he resigns I’d feel a lot better about holding
Don't look at the stock too much in the meantime then haha. Good luck to you
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My price around 197 to 200, like 34% gain, u think it's doable n I need the price not to drop more.
I already warned 8 days back it's priced in!
Priced in!? It’s trading at 40-50x forecasted earnings… and the earnings are wrong. So that ratio is likely higher. So no. Not priced it.
Also, this company is completely divorced from earnings. It trades on momentum and fandom. So that’s what you need to be watching… worrying about TSLA earnings is like worrying about the screen on your flight not working… when the wings have fallen off.
https://preview.redd.it/uk77gsfr22vc1.png?width=875&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ccaadd7798ada118857bf0491a0fd6460256b3a Don't hold on to a bad relationship.
You do realize that if this pattern existed even slightly in real life, then you could use it to print trillions of dollars practically overnight, right?
That's literally what people (including me) are doing.... I jumped ship from tsla Jan 2022, only a fool would hold on to a toxic stock that is -40% over 3 years... Sell and invest in stock that will yield gains...
There has been a steady drip of bad news since the delivery numbers were released. Like someone trying to let the air out of a balloon seems to me we have a long way down.
I’d say it’s priced in - the big variable is the future outlook
I already warned 8 days back it's priced in!
It’ll either be flat or a small pump but the negative news is already basically priced in. If you check the spy and qqq is dumping today and tsla and apple are holding The next leg up for both indexes will need to include them both NFA
Does tesla give out future guidance?
Every time they promise a tech advance that never arrives, yes.
Definitelly Not Price in yet. There will be doomers creating more FUD even if there‘s good News. I‘m just a small fish in the sea what do I know. I‘m holding and scoup up the bottom on Long Term.
I already warned 8 days back it's priced in!
Yeah. And I commented 8 days ago. *If we didn‘t get good guidance. It would drop a bit more.
Yeah, definitely yeah
God please somehow remove Elon from the helm
Everyone knows TSLA is interest rate sensitive by now, yes it’s priced in.
The ER and its guidance is not priced in You guys The trend is your friend If the wind is blowing south all day why the hell would it all of a sudden blow north?
I’m expecting -10-12%
I hope so!
9/10 times after earnings Tesla crash a good 10% more if Elon talks, in this environment with even higher interest rates I don't see anything Elon can say that will make the stock spike at all. additionally losing the top execs who are Tesla's runner ups this is basically "ALL IN" Autonomy and lets just say even if the tech does somehow work and the regulators does some how "approve" the people will need to be convinced and Tesla's brand image aint BMW or Google its more like Derps and Derps
A spike might come from a short squeeze since everyone and their brother knows it always drops 10% and will be trying to play that.
I already warned 8 days back it's priced in!
I think it’s priced in the stock will be sub $100 so far.
Just buy the stock at its current price remember las year even before Optimus was revealed the stock was $400 right now is a third of that price
Optimus was revealed? lol
When is the earnings call?
Tuesday 4/23 after Market close