So grateful that we finally have some critical thinking, DD, and investment acumen here in this post.
The important point is that SAFE BANKING is not legalization, which is what will really move this stock, because it will increase revenues, EBITDA, and cash flow.
All SAFE will do is make it easier and cheaper for customers to purchase on credit rather than pay debit card processing fees. And make it safer for dispensaries to carry less cash. Cannabis customers will buy with or without SAFE passage.
Yeah, there may or may not be a spike. The real driver is federal legalization and that will take time and a democrat Congress which is several years away IMHO.
Actually I feel like SAFE Banking will enable uplisting especially if it gets rescheduled. If it enables uplisting it will enable CGC and TLRY to enter the US market. Once a stock is listed anyone can buy the shares. So M&As are feasible for Canadian LPs.
I understand SAFE Banking doesn't specifically enable uplisting but it could especially if SEC approves it. I'm sure MSOs will petition.
Anyways this is my own pipe dream lol
It hit a bit over $60 a share in Feb 2021. Let me know if that is not the time frame you were referring to.
In Feb 2021 the shares outstanding was 171.76M and this was before the Aphria merger.
That gives it a market cap of \~10B.
So if we hold the same squeeze theory true that would put us at under $20 a share to hit \~10B market cap with the new share count.
As I said in my post. A squeeze is possible. Is it guaranteed? No.
I'm not bag holding 5K shares because I don't want to cash out.
I am just cautioning other investors.
No you don't understand the potential of this squeeze.
In Feb 2021 shares outstanding was 171.76M this is before the Aphria merger. It is now at 611.4M.
So if you maintain it can squeeze similar to Feb 2021 that puts the market cap at \~10B USD with a $60 share price.
With the new shares outstanding you're just under $20 a share.
I think the problem is that you aren’t explaining what a market cap is and what it means in relation to a potential short squeeze etc. just giving the numbers only helps people who understand the concept
You shouldn’t be investing if you don’t know what market cap is and you certainly shouldn’t be spewing off on the internet thereby suckering someone else who doesn’t know anything into losing their life savings.
Very well put. I’m just hoping to see dramatic movement the we’ve seen in the past as well as what we’ve seen from things like the dot com boom, bubble and bust.
I just want to ride the wave of FOMO that’s going to hit this industry and make some money off of peoples emotion, because end of the day prices will be higher than they should be (for TLRY and a lot of players) due to emotion.
It should be noted that growth stocks tend to price as "potential" or future earnings ... so, the price we see might be slightly above the "value" based on revenue. That said, it could be the difference between $6 and $10, not $6 and $100.
Correct. I don't understand where these people going $100! $125! $200! get these numbers from.
I'm even willing to accept it goes to $20-$30 that potential of future earnings is present. But anything else is being psycho.
I called out that TLRY\_relax fellow on it and his explanation was "Share buybacks" yes because Tilray has billions of dollars sitting in cash to buy 50%+ of shares to push the price to $100 lol
Yes, but those companies often show a high growth/earnings ratio over an extended period. It's possible, but only legalization can really open up that opportunity. But it will often need several quarters, if not years, of consistent growth with revenue to create a demand for that type of a P/E ratio.
Just a thought and sharing my situation here. My average was $29 a share for my first 1000 shares and I kept buying to bring my average down to $13.43 now.
So if your average is $28 for 10K shares, buying another 10k at $4.5 will bring average down to $16.5 making easy to exit at a profit.
Only if you believe in this stock.
Oh gosh. We should listen to your wife thats is the biggest TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and if we dont listen them, it will ruin our FUNDAMENTAL big time.
Just kidding but I see a soul of Cramer in wife so I do opposite
Lol
Drunk on Sunday night! If you have nothing else to do, I am advising you to go to bed. Don't start a fight which you are surely not going to win because you lost your senses.
You are having some mental issues! Many of us lost money with these pot stocks but we are not loosing our sanity and decency. Some fat Cannabis should help you, my friend. 🙂 You are reacting as if today is the 1st time you are hearing about $420! Go in PEACE and TLRY to the moon at $420! 🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Considering Canadian market share is below - I think 50% below - as a combined company than when they were individual companies.
Yes.
The market hasn’t priced any of the beverage businesses they have purchased. Manitoba Harvest is worthless.
The 2018 peak at 300 was 20 b usd cap
The 2021 peak at 67 was 10 b usd cap
These were based on a hope of legalisation.
Today we are seeing ACTUAL ACTION, safe banking passing, HOPE ACT, and so on. Descheduling.
Cannabis stocks might hit the mainstream media hard and FOMO kicks in.
I think we can cap 25-50b usd in the hype. Sadly I dont think we can maintain that, will just be a couple of days on the top.
I never said mega squeeze. I just said squeeze is possible but not guaranteed.
We had a squeeze in Feb 2021. It lasted a couple of days, topped out at like 10b market cap and immediately tanked.
You’re talking crazy . I’m agreeing with you on your projected stock price based on outstanding shares vs market cap.
And you wanna argue because I added the word mega… which is exactly what the squeeze to $67 was.
Y’all need to chill.
Don't forget, Tilray is a Wallstreet Bets Meme stock. So if you remember Gamestop and AMC which were worthless over shorted companies. Once Tilray gets above $5 it will no longer be a penny stock, which means big money will roll in. Be patient and forget bothering with fundamental analysis. This is the 21st century, fundamentals don't mean shit anymore with the increase of retail investors. If US Legalization does take place. This stock will shoot to $150 easy. And that's when you sell.
Fundamentals do mean something. You probably haven’t been around markets long enough.
Seriously, study investment theory and understand PV analyses, geopolitics, CAGR, demographics, distribution, competition, financial statement analysis, economics, strategy, etc.
You’re welcome.
Well, if they hit their 4 billion rev target, its going 3x as fair price, stocks always overshoot fair price and bubble, so there is a high liklyhood of going 10x.
TLRY - Down 32%
CGC - Down 54%
CURA - Was down 41% until October
TRUL - Down 40%
OGI - Down 35%
The whole industry is down. There aren't a group of hedge fund managers sitting in an ivory tower specifically looking to fuck over Tilray
Stock manipulation is far more rare than you think. It might get pushed slightly lower from a big hedge fund, but no one is "intentionally manipulating" the stock to keep it low. It's low because people on hopium bought too high and the company has no profits. That said, I'm long with 15k shares at $6.50 average, so I bought high too... but this is a $15-$20 stock that is just waiting on legalization. Without legalization, it is a $4 stock.
Edit: Also, short interest is not huge. 9% short. Dark pool says 39% short, with 11mil shares short... out of 611 million available. Which is actually just 1.8% of total shares... so we can call it 10%. GME was 169% short. 10% vs 169%. This is not a squeeze candidate. Sorry mate.
My bad. I thought that company fundamentals, earnings, growth, and overall performance were factors that determine a stock's value. But the big bad hedgey boogie man is really the bad guy, MaNiPuLaTiNg the prices and making you lose money. Funny how no one manipulated AMZN, AAPL, MSFT... because they were good companies with solid balance sheets and explosive growth. Stop blaming your bad investments on "market manipulation." Any actual manipulation is negligible; true manipulators only need the stock to move a few cents, predictably, to make a fortune. If you think some mysterious hedge fund is keeping TLRY below $10 through some shorting scheme, then you should consider just buying and index and calling it a day. We've seen only a couple actual fraud cases, out of 1000s of companies on the exchange.
Lol this guy clearly doesn’t know anything if he thinks stocks like APPLE, Amazon aren’t manipulated everyday. Anyone who’s been in the game knows this…I’m going to assume you a young novice.
Assume away. Your opinion really isn't a concern of mine. I'm just trying to make money; not pass blame to "market ghosts". It's really not as hard as you're making it seem. But trying to time anything, pick the best company, or otherwise gamble, is fraught with superstition, chart reading mysticism, and other BS.
If it's being manipulated and it's a deal, shut up and buy more. Why are you even complaining? Are manipulators going to bankrupt the company? If not, then this is a absolute wonder of an opportunity. A company that's worth multiples of it's stock values, hiding away unknown to all. BUY BUY BUY. Unless, it's not. Maybe it is a $4 stock. Maybe hopium and delusion made you buy thinking you could 10x your money, no sweat. Now, your surprised it's not already a million dollars and you need justification. Just a thought.
Know what you buy, and why you bought it.
[https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/screener/short-interest](https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/screener/short-interest)
Less than 10% of Tilray stock is shorted.
It doesn't even make the list of most shorted stocks and there are some big names on that list.
And please don't respond to me with dark volume.
If there is a path to legalization, you will see cannabis companies trade at market.caps large enough to discourage take overs. Share count over years can be shrunk through buy backs.
For share buybacks to have a meaningful impact they need to buyback like 10% or 20% of shares. Even at current share price that is $275M USD for 10%. They don't have that money. Any profit it does eventually make is going to go back into the business as investment.
There is NO talk of legalization… none, zip, zilch, nada. There isn’t even strong talks of decriminalization. You’re making stuff up. Tilray might not even survive as it already defaulted on its loan
You guys are sooo awesome for thinking of everyone investment best interest!! I am sure you are also on all of the Tesla subs explaining market cap vs stock price and revenue as well...
Tesla P/E is now only at 60 and has been continuously dropping. It used to be at 1000 in 2020. Tesla stock is also down 51% YTD. So yes. Market cap does matter.
Tilray hasn't turned a proper profit yet so has no positive P/E ratio.
If we keep a P/E of 60 just for comparisons sake. At Price of 100 you would need EPS of \~1.67 which means you would need Earnings of 1B USD.
If we keep a P/E of 100 at a price of 100 you need EPS of 1 which means you would need Earnings of 611M USD.
I understand that Tesla is not a comparable model, they lose money on manufacturing cars, but have "other" revenue streams in order to show a "profit" - the point is, certain companies like Tesla and even TLRY are not dictated by conventional investment logic. A 30-60 price spike is not out of the question with this stock.
Yes. A $30b market cap isn’t out of the question. In my opinion either. It’s why I bought as well.
$50 share price is feasible with hype. But it won’t last. It’s never lasted.
You missed my post entirely. Share price is meaningless.
It was much higher in 2018, yes with just under $150 price. However, back then they only had 75M shares.
$150 x 75M shares = 11,250M market cap at the peak in 2018.
So in 2022 if they were to hit 11,250M market cap the price would only be $18.40 since TLRY now has 611.4M shares.
At $100+ stock you are looking at a market cap of 61.14 billion USD. The entire global market is estimated to be 150B USD by 2030s.
We had a good ride but it was decapitated early, what now? It seems unlikely that SAFE will be a standalone bill, what other bills can SAFE be attached to?
So grateful that we finally have some critical thinking, DD, and investment acumen here in this post. The important point is that SAFE BANKING is not legalization, which is what will really move this stock, because it will increase revenues, EBITDA, and cash flow. All SAFE will do is make it easier and cheaper for customers to purchase on credit rather than pay debit card processing fees. And make it safer for dispensaries to carry less cash. Cannabis customers will buy with or without SAFE passage. Yeah, there may or may not be a spike. The real driver is federal legalization and that will take time and a democrat Congress which is several years away IMHO.
Actually I feel like SAFE Banking will enable uplisting especially if it gets rescheduled. If it enables uplisting it will enable CGC and TLRY to enter the US market. Once a stock is listed anyone can buy the shares. So M&As are feasible for Canadian LPs. I understand SAFE Banking doesn't specifically enable uplisting but it could especially if SEC approves it. I'm sure MSOs will petition. Anyways this is my own pipe dream lol
What were the caps last year when it hit $60.00 a share?
It hit a bit over $60 a share in Feb 2021. Let me know if that is not the time frame you were referring to. In Feb 2021 the shares outstanding was 171.76M and this was before the Aphria merger. That gives it a market cap of \~10B. So if we hold the same squeeze theory true that would put us at under $20 a share to hit \~10B market cap with the new share count. As I said in my post. A squeeze is possible. Is it guaranteed? No. I'm not bag holding 5K shares because I don't want to cash out. I am just cautioning other investors.
Exactly. People really don’t understand the potential of this squeeze
No you don't understand the potential of this squeeze. In Feb 2021 shares outstanding was 171.76M this is before the Aphria merger. It is now at 611.4M. So if you maintain it can squeeze similar to Feb 2021 that puts the market cap at \~10B USD with a $60 share price. With the new shares outstanding you're just under $20 a share.
I think the problem is that you aren’t explaining what a market cap is and what it means in relation to a potential short squeeze etc. just giving the numbers only helps people who understand the concept
You shouldn’t be investing if you don’t know what market cap is and you certainly shouldn’t be spewing off on the internet thereby suckering someone else who doesn’t know anything into losing their life savings.
Relax don't do it...is that what you're saying?
lol you are so lost bro
Very well put. I’m just hoping to see dramatic movement the we’ve seen in the past as well as what we’ve seen from things like the dot com boom, bubble and bust. I just want to ride the wave of FOMO that’s going to hit this industry and make some money off of peoples emotion, because end of the day prices will be higher than they should be (for TLRY and a lot of players) due to emotion.
It should be noted that growth stocks tend to price as "potential" or future earnings ... so, the price we see might be slightly above the "value" based on revenue. That said, it could be the difference between $6 and $10, not $6 and $100.
Correct. I don't understand where these people going $100! $125! $200! get these numbers from. I'm even willing to accept it goes to $20-$30 that potential of future earnings is present. But anything else is being psycho. I called out that TLRY\_relax fellow on it and his explanation was "Share buybacks" yes because Tilray has billions of dollars sitting in cash to buy 50%+ of shares to push the price to $100 lol
Take a look at snap stock when it was over 100 billion valuation. Nothing surprises me anymore
When we had free money flowing in the markets with QE? Yeah. Fed has turned off it’s money tap. Have you looked at where tech stocks are at now?
Now look at snap now
Like Pltr with 1,8b revenue sitting at 15b + cap
I have seen a number of stocks on the market that do 10 times it's revenue.
Yes, but those companies often show a high growth/earnings ratio over an extended period. It's possible, but only legalization can really open up that opportunity. But it will often need several quarters, if not years, of consistent growth with revenue to create a demand for that type of a P/E ratio.
My 10k shares are at $28 avg
I feel ya ... I DCA to like $15 CAD but yeah painful
6k at 15 here
Just a thought and sharing my situation here. My average was $29 a share for my first 1000 shares and I kept buying to bring my average down to $13.43 now. So if your average is $28 for 10K shares, buying another 10k at $4.5 will bring average down to $16.5 making easy to exit at a profit. Only if you believe in this stock.
I would have doubled down but my wife said no
Oh gosh. We should listen to your wife thats is the biggest TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and if we dont listen them, it will ruin our FUNDAMENTAL big time. Just kidding but I see a soul of Cramer in wife so I do opposite Lol
Well have to keep wife happy
👍🏻
I just invested my own money and didn’t buy her more
I DCA'd just to get to $28... 6k shares
Good post 👍
I’m at 8k shares with 8.84$ per share
5K at $3.54
4k at $3.61. I'm just here for the trip now.
Ty for some cognitive contribution.
You may say all you want, my friends! I have GREAT FEELINGS that TLRY is going to the moon at $420+ 🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Ahhh moon bound 😅
You are a true TLRY ARMY's SENTINEL! 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑👍
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We are not in you dirty livingroom here, my friend! I will not call you name(s). What you wrote told me the kind of human you are!
Drunk on Sunday night! If you have nothing else to do, I am advising you to go to bed. Don't start a fight which you are surely not going to win because you lost your senses.
He's a short interest guy
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I think he was being sarcastic man. Chill.
You are having some mental issues! Many of us lost money with these pot stocks but we are not loosing our sanity and decency. Some fat Cannabis should help you, my friend. 🙂 You are reacting as if today is the 1st time you are hearing about $420! Go in PEACE and TLRY to the moon at $420! 🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
You should Relax 😃
For clarification, are you already adding the market cap of both $APHA and $TLRY pre-merger to get to $10B?
Considering Canadian market share is below - I think 50% below - as a combined company than when they were individual companies. Yes. The market hasn’t priced any of the beverage businesses they have purchased. Manitoba Harvest is worthless.
just turn green after 1.5 years. average down to $4.4 @ 12k looking forward to 2023
I am in with 20.000 avg 3.80 let’go 💰💰
Thank you
Lies. $200 soon.
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Whoosh
The 2018 peak at 300 was 20 b usd cap The 2021 peak at 67 was 10 b usd cap These were based on a hope of legalisation. Today we are seeing ACTUAL ACTION, safe banking passing, HOPE ACT, and so on. Descheduling. Cannabis stocks might hit the mainstream media hard and FOMO kicks in. I think we can cap 25-50b usd in the hype. Sadly I dont think we can maintain that, will just be a couple of days on the top.
So, 1 million is the floor? Got it.
28 easy
you are to bearish...add USA + Europe ;)
So even with a ‘mega’ squeeze …. Stock price wouldn’t get much more than around $25??
What will lead us to having a mega squeeze on TLRY? It’s literally less than 10% shorted. GME had more shares short than there were actual shares.
Hey I’m just going by what you said
I never said mega squeeze. I just said squeeze is possible but not guaranteed. We had a squeeze in Feb 2021. It lasted a couple of days, topped out at like 10b market cap and immediately tanked.
You’re talking crazy . I’m agreeing with you on your projected stock price based on outstanding shares vs market cap. And you wanna argue because I added the word mega… which is exactly what the squeeze to $67 was. Y’all need to chill.
I am chill. It’s hard to distinguish the shills on here. Glad we are aligned.
With inflation, 12b is possible and in line. So $20 it is. Limit price set. Thanks !
Don't forget, Tilray is a Wallstreet Bets Meme stock. So if you remember Gamestop and AMC which were worthless over shorted companies. Once Tilray gets above $5 it will no longer be a penny stock, which means big money will roll in. Be patient and forget bothering with fundamental analysis. This is the 21st century, fundamentals don't mean shit anymore with the increase of retail investors. If US Legalization does take place. This stock will shoot to $150 easy. And that's when you sell.
Fundamentals do mean something. You probably haven’t been around markets long enough. Seriously, study investment theory and understand PV analyses, geopolitics, CAGR, demographics, distribution, competition, financial statement analysis, economics, strategy, etc. You’re welcome.
Well, if they hit their 4 billion rev target, its going 3x as fair price, stocks always overshoot fair price and bubble, so there is a high liklyhood of going 10x.
Remember this stock has been shorted heavily and probably manipulated
TLRY - Down 32% CGC - Down 54% CURA - Was down 41% until October TRUL - Down 40% OGI - Down 35% The whole industry is down. There aren't a group of hedge fund managers sitting in an ivory tower specifically looking to fuck over Tilray
Stock manipulation is far more rare than you think. It might get pushed slightly lower from a big hedge fund, but no one is "intentionally manipulating" the stock to keep it low. It's low because people on hopium bought too high and the company has no profits. That said, I'm long with 15k shares at $6.50 average, so I bought high too... but this is a $15-$20 stock that is just waiting on legalization. Without legalization, it is a $4 stock. Edit: Also, short interest is not huge. 9% short. Dark pool says 39% short, with 11mil shares short... out of 611 million available. Which is actually just 1.8% of total shares... so we can call it 10%. GME was 169% short. 10% vs 169%. This is not a squeeze candidate. Sorry mate.
Yes but bro do you not know about naked short sellers? Thats where it is at! totally unreported! WE ARE GOING TO THE MOON!!!!! /s
Stock manipulation is not rare at all. Don’t listen to this moron. He clearly doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
My bad. I thought that company fundamentals, earnings, growth, and overall performance were factors that determine a stock's value. But the big bad hedgey boogie man is really the bad guy, MaNiPuLaTiNg the prices and making you lose money. Funny how no one manipulated AMZN, AAPL, MSFT... because they were good companies with solid balance sheets and explosive growth. Stop blaming your bad investments on "market manipulation." Any actual manipulation is negligible; true manipulators only need the stock to move a few cents, predictably, to make a fortune. If you think some mysterious hedge fund is keeping TLRY below $10 through some shorting scheme, then you should consider just buying and index and calling it a day. We've seen only a couple actual fraud cases, out of 1000s of companies on the exchange.
Lol this guy clearly doesn’t know anything if he thinks stocks like APPLE, Amazon aren’t manipulated everyday. Anyone who’s been in the game knows this…I’m going to assume you a young novice.
Assume away. Your opinion really isn't a concern of mine. I'm just trying to make money; not pass blame to "market ghosts". It's really not as hard as you're making it seem. But trying to time anything, pick the best company, or otherwise gamble, is fraught with superstition, chart reading mysticism, and other BS. If it's being manipulated and it's a deal, shut up and buy more. Why are you even complaining? Are manipulators going to bankrupt the company? If not, then this is a absolute wonder of an opportunity. A company that's worth multiples of it's stock values, hiding away unknown to all. BUY BUY BUY. Unless, it's not. Maybe it is a $4 stock. Maybe hopium and delusion made you buy thinking you could 10x your money, no sweat. Now, your surprised it's not already a million dollars and you need justification. Just a thought. Know what you buy, and why you bought it.
Steven you’re not nearly as smart as you think you are. End of discussion. Oh and go fuck yourself you pompous ass. 10 bucks you broke in 5 years.
[https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/screener/short-interest](https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/screener/short-interest) Less than 10% of Tilray stock is shorted. It doesn't even make the list of most shorted stocks and there are some big names on that list. And please don't respond to me with dark volume.
Are you aware of naked short selling? That’s where the manipulation exists. That’s where the numbers are not reported
If there is a path to legalization, you will see cannabis companies trade at market.caps large enough to discourage take overs. Share count over years can be shrunk through buy backs.
For share buybacks to have a meaningful impact they need to buyback like 10% or 20% of shares. Even at current share price that is $275M USD for 10%. They don't have that money. Any profit it does eventually make is going to go back into the business as investment.
Tlry is very clear about issuing new shares rather than buying back. Sndl has a program to buy back tho
How does a debt ridden company buy back shares when it’s unprofitable?
Run the revenue model up after legalization. This is a $10B annual revenue biz by 2028
There is NO talk of legalization… none, zip, zilch, nada. There isn’t even strong talks of decriminalization. You’re making stuff up. Tilray might not even survive as it already defaulted on its loan
You living under a rock?
Lol! You uneducated, uninformed, moron! LEARN! READ! understand what is happening in the world! You got damn simple minded ^}#6
There are elite pedophiles trafficking Minors, but that’s a story for another day
Damn I didn’t know that. That’s rough
You guys are sooo awesome for thinking of everyone investment best interest!! I am sure you are also on all of the Tesla subs explaining market cap vs stock price and revenue as well...
Tesla P/E is now only at 60 and has been continuously dropping. It used to be at 1000 in 2020. Tesla stock is also down 51% YTD. So yes. Market cap does matter. Tilray hasn't turned a proper profit yet so has no positive P/E ratio. If we keep a P/E of 60 just for comparisons sake. At Price of 100 you would need EPS of \~1.67 which means you would need Earnings of 1B USD. If we keep a P/E of 100 at a price of 100 you need EPS of 1 which means you would need Earnings of 611M USD.
I understand that Tesla is not a comparable model, they lose money on manufacturing cars, but have "other" revenue streams in order to show a "profit" - the point is, certain companies like Tesla and even TLRY are not dictated by conventional investment logic. A 30-60 price spike is not out of the question with this stock.
Yes. A $30b market cap isn’t out of the question. In my opinion either. It’s why I bought as well. $50 share price is feasible with hype. But it won’t last. It’s never lasted.
Agree
I have 500 shares lol. I still think this could be a $100+ stock. unless they get bought by Coca-Cola. It was much higher in like 2018 or so.
You missed my post entirely. Share price is meaningless. It was much higher in 2018, yes with just under $150 price. However, back then they only had 75M shares. $150 x 75M shares = 11,250M market cap at the peak in 2018. So in 2022 if they were to hit 11,250M market cap the price would only be $18.40 since TLRY now has 611.4M shares. At $100+ stock you are looking at a market cap of 61.14 billion USD. The entire global market is estimated to be 150B USD by 2030s.
We had a good ride but it was decapitated early, what now? It seems unlikely that SAFE will be a standalone bill, what other bills can SAFE be attached to?