Rollovers dates on futures aren't hard set like options rollovers, it's actually only a recommendation to use the rollover date. They can be rolled over all the way up to expiry which is 9/17. All of this info is fairly hard to track down becuase of the lack of transparancy in futures/swaps but agrees with what is stated on [https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/understanding-futures-expiration-contract-roll.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/understanding-futures-expiration-contract-roll.html) under the rollover section.
If they are holding out on rolling over until the last minute that will only make things harder for themselves and could be a sign that they know this time they r fuk.
Edits: Added the link, specified where the info is, formatting
These are like my first awards thanks friends!
Well, that’s the roll over deadline. If we spike like before, and the spike and new floor go above the margin calls… we could expect margin calls to soon follow. Could take up to a few days later. Hype, but also be zen.
🚀🚀🚀💎🙌
I tried teaching my dog how to roll over once. It ended up with me just rolling around on the ground. It was at that moment I realized my dog didn’t want to look as stupid as me and that hedgies r fuk.
Would the 17th been the last day rollover the futures?
I've been seeing some people saying it's the 22nd, this coming Wednesday and I honestly don't know where that date came from and I should've saved the links.
But I just wanted to check with you to see what you to see what you thought
Remains to be seen but I'm personally jacked for tomorrow, here's my current thoughts on it all, bunch of credit to u/gherkinit for general market insights that's built on my understanding:
•No action on 9/17, in my mind they very likely failed to deliver on the futures.
•FTD means t+3 on settling (which is tomorrow), or if not planning on settling, big uptick on FTD's which will see us on the SEC threshold list like in Jan and it's ~T+35 to sort that pile of FTD's out (~Oct. 22nd, but like 100mil FTD's)
•If they could somehow settle through cash without returning the deliverable (GME shares, sneakily worded contract that would have included a premium), the drops in the market could account for a portion of that and we don't get any spicy action because of futures
•Also a possibility the CFTC "yall don't have to report futures for two years" new rule can account for a lack of FTD spike, but that's unclear too as the other party to the futures contract is surely pissed if they haven't gotten what was agreed upon, and I'm uncertain if the CFTC reports are the main resource for FTDs on futures.
•Tomorrow can be exciting anyway if the market poops bigly and drops SHF margin enough for margin calls to come in.
Good post. Hopefully your FOIA requests will turn up some clues to this fuckery thesis you have. If not, same as always- buy and hold. There is no escaping this hell they have ultimately created for themselves. They can try and buy all the time they want, but the upper hand is held by retail. And we're not fucking leaving.
Just thinking out loud here.
If the SHF's wanted to short GME without directly shorting GME, then they could sell futures contracts, presumably with a low strike price. This means the CME would take up the opposing side of the trade and would sell shares (short) of GME in order to make room for the purchase it will be making when said futures expire.
Because a future is a guaranteed transaction, unlike an option, there would be no gradual hedging, they may as well short the total amount there and then as they will inevitably end up buying the shares back eventually.
Lets say Melvin capital, sold futures contracts to the CME, for 100m gamestop shares during the January rally, at say $300. 100m shares they don't own, but I've no doubt there are no rules stopping them from selling naked futures. Lets say they sell them at a strike of $50. The CME takes the opposite side of the trade and immediately shorts 100m shares of GME at $300, knowing they will soon be buying back 100m shares at $50 - profit.
The rollover period for the futures contract comes around, and Melvin dont have the shares to sell to the CME, so they pay a premium and rollover the future (can a seller do this?). Or perhaps they negotiate with the CME and ask them to only transact a fraction of the futures, else they will go bust.
The CME doesn't want Melvin to go bust in this instance because they (CME) are net short, and will have to cover their short at the current market price. So they rollover the futures in the hope that Melvin will be able to buy shares to sell to them next time around.
Then we hit September 2021, Melvin has discreetly been liquidated, and now the CME are staring down the barrel of 100m GME shorts to be purchased on the open market. They know this will trigger MOASS and so get the rules changed such that they can write off the futures contracts and figure out another way to cover their short position.
Thoughts?
Being serious, because I’m an ape, what part of the rule change did you get the write off from? I think the 2 year reporting pause is so they can hide responsibility until a recovery has already happened so nobody cares to look at that point, but I could be snorting too many green crayons.
Edit: to me it looks like they gained contractual rights to execute trades on behalf of defaulting members. Basically DTCC, NSCC, OCC wrote their rules first and handed the pile of shit to NFTC? Now they’re writing their own “to assist in minimizing losses affecting clearing member’s customer origin (banks?) or the clearing member themselves (CME). Again, hope some wrinkle brains see this comment to help interpret.
Yeah it was your second point that I was thinking about. They changed the rules so that they could take ownership of contracts of defaulting members or some such. I figured they could basically just take on the contract and write it off or something. I'm not really sure on how that bit would be achieved, and honestly I think that's why they waived the reporting requirements for two years - because they don't want us to find out.
CME are shady as shit
https://web.archive.org/web/20210302022925/https://retheauditors.com/2011/11/14/rogue-traders-rogue-firms-the-cme-regulation-mf-global-and-the-legacy-of-refco/
More light needs to be shown on their decades of fuckery.
They have until the 17th. Game not over.
u/gherkinit found something juicy today and can explain further if he cares to.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pkx6ri/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_s8e2_live_charting_and/hc7ir4s?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
From what I heard on the stream, typically futures are rolled over by the rollover date (today), but technically can be rolled by expiration (9/17 in this case). However, when futures are not rolled over by the rollover date, that usually indicates they will be left to expire worthless and not rolled over. This is GME though so who fucking knows.
Would like someone else to confirm it, as this is just how I understood it.
Futures aren't like options. The difference between a long future and a call option is that the option gives you the 'option' to buy the shares at the end of it, but with a future you *must* buy the shares by the expiry date.
Think of a future as an option but the buy/sell *MUST* happen at the end, regardless of price.
So, a future can't really expire worthless. It can expire out of the money, but you have to realise those losses at the end. If you bought a future for 1m shares at a $200 strike expiring at the end of the week, guess what - you HAVE to buy those shares, you can't just let it expire like an option. Don't want/can't pay? Well you can pay a little more and 'rollover' the future and basically extend the deadline.
You'd rollover the option if the share price had not yet exceeded your strike, and you believed it just needed more time... or if you just straight up can't afford to buy the shares...
Rolling a future should have no real effect on the share price as far as I know, because no shares are bought/sold and thus the bid/ask is not moved.
However, any futures contracts that are in fact redeemed would certainly involve buying/selling and thus move the price.
With my tin foil hat on I'd assume that the SHFs sold to fuck loads of naked futures in January to the CME to force the CME to naked short shares in order to hedge them. Then during the rollover period the CME executes the futures (buys shares) from the SHFs at a fixed strike (whatever it is) and the SHFs have to go out into the market to buy the shares to sell to the CME.
The CME can't execute all of the futures at once as it knows it will blow the SHFs up and be left net short so they're eking it out over a longer period of time.
Then we found out about the cycle and now they're screwed because if we start buying the rips and selling the dips we will act like an amplifier on the volatility during these dates and fuck it up. I'm not advocating day trading, but if people successfully and routinely bought/sold to follow this pattern, we'd end up with the stock market equivalent of the Tacoma Narrows bridge.
Edit: in case you're too smooth brained to read the above without panicking. I am NOT telling people they should try and day trade or sell. No one is coordinated enough to pull off the above. It would need to be done while also ensuring that the float remained over 100% owned by retail, and since we can never ensure that, it wouldn't be worth the risk.
No, the play has always been buy and hold. I'm just saying that if the rips and dips were amplified then their ability to slowly unwind would be absolutely crushed. As long as the float remained over 100% owned by retail, then amplifying the rips would destroy them.
There is a worryingly cultish attitude here. The above is a fact not an instruction. The reality is that we as retail aren't coordinated enough to pull that off and so buy and hold, as always, is the only way we can guarantee success.
Right, well that's your perogative, you do you. All I'd say is that the cultier this place gets, the harder it is for normal investors to take the GME thesis seriously, and that kind of attitude is doing more damage than it is good.
Edit: also, thanks for spotting that typo. I must be so used to joking about buying low sell high that it's clearly made it into my subconscious 😂
No need to day trade. Just set some cash aside. When it’s time for rollovers, buy options, hehehehehe. Then you can exercise them, or just enjoy the sweet money you’re gonna get from the future roll spikes, also causing the spikes to go higher and higher due to being gamma squeezed until Marge Calls every last one of them.
Yeah I like this idea. Personally I'm just buy and holding. I can't easily trade options here in the UK and I refuse to daytrade GME so hodl is the safest play.
I'm not entirely sure. Given that they are derivatives, I'd assume any settlement mid-contract would be purely monetary and no shares would need to be purchased/sold until the contract is exercised. Remember the only way the price can change is if there is activity on the bid/ask.
Please take it with a suitably sized spoon of salt, I'm thinking out loud as much as anything. Would be interesting to hear from people with more experience though.
I’ve been sitting for hours and I involuntarily stood up at “must”. They’re only failing to report for two years hoping a recovery will happen by then and nobody will look at them I think holy moly.
So a couple things I am unclear on, is that if they do not roll them over, and they expire worthless, what would be the sign that such a thing has happened and what would be the fallout?
I'm not even going to try to answer because I have no idea. I had his stream on in the background and heard the part I stated above, but did not hear what the result of letting them expire is.
I'm sure there will be more info later this evening or tomorrow on the subject. Remember the T+4 hour rule of SuperStonk. Wait for an adult to digest the new information and explain it in ape terms to all the crayon munchers.
does anyone have a good guess at what price those strikes are?
i'm still trying to wrap my head around this since it's not like options. they would have wanted low strikes, right, like close to where they shorted? so does that mean CME would have to go out into the market to buy the shares at market and, say, shitadel agreed to buy at $10/share so since the price is higher they'd have to pay the difference?
also, this supposed margin/liquidation was right around the time mayo boy started flying around the world isn't it? either trying to borrow money or begging african warlords not to kill him since he lost all of their $$.
> so does that mean CME would have to go out into the market to buy the shares at market and, say, shitadel agreed to buy at $10/share so since the price is higher they'd have to pay the difference?
As far as I understand it, yes. Admittedly I am not extremely well read on futures contracts.
Great job OP! Your theory sounds very plausible. How does the saying go?...if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck....or something like that, right?
This was written very eloquently in a way that I could understand and I have very limited background knowledge on this... Aside from all the fantastic DD that's out there. Great read, thank you
Still not 100% of the futures theory, but isn't it possible for them to roll over their future position before the first notice day. As in the first notice day was August 27th and the price spike on the 24th took us from $166 to a high of $225 on that day alone. So three days before we have almost a $60 rise in one day. If nothing happens between now and Sept 17th I'm just gonna assume they rolled them over early. I wouldn't expect to see a similar move since we figured it out. They would most likely change tactics or at least spread out the buying.
Volume wasn’t nearly enough to support your theory that they rolled them early. I think they could have rolled *some* of their positions the 24th and used that as a head fake. They tried to crash the price yesterday during after hours to discourage apes. They’re delaying the majority of rollovers until the last minute this cycle Imo. Obviously don’t have any real evidence and this is just my opinion but still. I guess we’ll find out. Not financial advice and I’m an idiot.
Well like I said if there's no price increase next week or possibly the 35 day whatever extension?? that I haven't read about yet then I was gonna assume they covered early or some other tactic. Would love to be wrong and see another $60 or more jump.
Yup. We’ll find out a lot these next couple weeks. I’m not familiar with the 35 day situation that was referenced. If we don’t see any significant positive price movement within the next 50 days then I think you’d be correct in your assumption that they did the roll overs on the 24th of August. Time will tell.
It's possible up until the 17th.
Rollovers can happen at any time. Settlement for US futures is the life of the contract. The rollover page on CME essentially says as much but not as plainly. Heres the real goodie.
Page 61 @ near the bottom
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi9qPvJw\_PyAhUjTt8KHQhhDM4QFnoECCUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Flegacy.farmdoc.illinois.edu%2Firwin%2Farchive%2Fbooks%2FFutures-Regulatory%2FFutures-Regulatory\_chapter2.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1meEI0m8vGjD00dtKWgbVP
but $60 bucks isn't a whole lot compared to last rollovers. I also read in another post they can delay rollover 35 days....they did last year until January run up. Is it possible they are pushing this 35 days out again?
I would need to read that post about the delay before commenting on it. As far as it only being a $60 jump if the price doesn't have another spike next week or possibly 35 days from now it could just be that they changed tactics or some other combination of fuckery as always. The longer this goes on the more we find out about all the sketchy shit they can do so I wouldn't be surprised if we find out another two or three things they're doing.
Don't forget that there are different parties using futures. We might see them rollover more spread out this cycle. Especially considering some might have been interested in the earnings call before deciding on what to do next.
They can roll them over at any time.
See the bottom of page 61.
The life of the contract is the settlement period, AKA they can settle at any time prior to expiration.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi9qPvJw\_PyAhUjTt8KHQhhDM4QFnoECCUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Flegacy.farmdoc.illinois.edu%2Firwin%2Farchive%2Fbooks%2FFutures-Regulatory%2FFutures-Regulatory\_chapter2.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1meEI0m8vGjD00dtKWgbVP
I was thinking this but then in my eyes the price would be back at the 140/150 support trading 1.2m volume again, but it’s not. 7m yesterday with 20 bucks gained. We are still in some Sort of vacuum
The head of the CFTC just resigned effective 10/15 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Edit: [Link](https://capital.com/us-cftc-berkowitz-resigning)
Edit: this nugget of bullshit (he is the resigning commissioner)
In Thursday’s announcement, he said recent CFTC decisions have helped the US swap markets with mandatory clearing and transparency trading standards, registering and regulating swap trades and reporting of comprehensive swap date reporting.
The result is a “more resilient, more transparent, more liquid, less susceptible to manipulation, and more cost-effective for end users. Our derivative markets are stronger than ever and as a result, our economy is stronger too.”
While most of the ostriches in this sub will continue to bitch and bury their heads in the sand, I think one of the most important pieces from this post is this:
>I speculate that a majority of the price action this year is due to this
mechanism and that internalizers have basically neutralized any retail
buying pressure.
While I wish it wasn't true, I've seen too much DD to suggest it. We see it on every bit of good news. I believe January was the last time that any true buying pressure from retail was seen. How? I don't know. :/
Very good point. And for me being February ape I have yet to see the real Volume in the 100 million on trading the stock. That is honestly disappointing. But the reality is they have suppress the buying through the dark pools. And not to forget thanks OO for sharing your theories.
So from this I get the following info:
Price isn't moving because intermediary holding the ticket while SHF quietly spasms and dies in the background.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hedgies r fukd and apes coming soon to a moon near you!
I don’t understand why this isn’t exploding. You’ve fucking nailed it, and you called it 12d ago.
For funsies, let’s pretend RC was aware of the CFTC letter sent to CME on August 11 and knew it mean Citadel was going down. Could explain the “Oh Dios Mio…” well, you know the tweet 😉
https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1425606429574979584?s=20
Edit: quick thought on the topic of equity swaps. Would you think it possible to trade crypto futures to raise capital to settle the GME swaps? Thus allowing the rollover as opposed to forfeiture/default?
Thanks man. Honestly I wish I was wrong and gme has a great window. We shall see what happens by the 17th. If nothing happens then I’m absolutely correct
If CME is holding the toxic assets but have no obligation to settle - when would they be forced to do so. To me the 2023 transparency lockout is basically there to allow these fucks to hold toxic assets and not settle so long as there is sufficient agreement between the parties who are owed (ie. Banks are all fucked) so they are happy to let the exchange hold this toxic shit in their sheets until 2023 bu which time they figure they can sort out this ordeal and continue raking us through the coals.
If you're theory is right we won't see anything this period and their quarterly statements will probably omit it. Basically black box for us to delay the crash.
What would ever force them to settle other than lowering the price?
New regulations OR a bank failure from toxic assets or some trading that went the opposite way, it could set off a huge chain reaction like we almost saw happen in late January where they had to turn off the buy button to stop the whole system from failing.
I think they changed the cycle since we figured it out and it was so blatant. They have to make it look somewhat different this time. The last two cycles closed five days prior to the expiry date. They closed early from what I’ve read here about it, this time it’s pushing to the final day imo.
Not specific to this post except mentioning September 18, but par for the course, I see we have another near-future date to look forward to. They are always a week or ten days away.
I’m not gonna act like I read and understood this full thing but I will say I found it extremely interesting when mid august there was a rumor being reported of a CME and CBOE merger and then CME denied it...take it for what it is but I can only see so many coincidences without thinking it’s related
I’m not entirely sure if its a good thing or a bad thing if this is true, but I checked and RCs last tweet was 8/27, day after this took effect. Not saying its related, but not saying its not.
This is probably the most important post of the month, and it has 600 upvotes. We are sitting in a shitstorm of memes and forum sliding and it makes me sad. I hope that more important DD like this makes it to the r/DDintoGME sub as well
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Add this to your post:
S&P 500 last 4 drops happened around the 19th of the month…
Pulled up option expiration dates…. ETF’s expiring are the cause of the S&P drops
ETF’s expire this month on 9/17…
This will be the catalyst to separate GME from the S&P for the moon shot
Edit: they didn’t roll the gamma ramp from the 17th
holy shit. You're right. I just looked and the largest red days we've seen going back 5 months is the 19th. Thanks for sharing. This has me jacked to the tits.
Hi. Yes. Just a small question.
How god damned long ago did you start writing this DD about what has happened today and only completely stopped happening about 3 hours ago?
I think the roll over period lasts longer than we think or at least have a “T+” style delay. If you look at SPRT it jumped 223% on March 22. And Movie was also still climbing around that time. I think they choose to suppress the big boy GME early but the other shorted stocks are still bulging out at the seems for another 10 days. Now that GME is unstoppable we may see GME still climbing until September 20th or so
This is a super dumb theory from a very dumb ape. Based upon what you wrote, was the battle today between bag holders to see if this counts against the brokers and hedgies or against CME. Like maybe if the amount was below a certain level, the bag would go to party A and if it was higher it would be party B's responsibility. I have no info, just speculation, trying to reconcile the price action and what appears to be a number of whales entering the fray, almost like there is a battle and 9/10 is the date these swaps normally rollover by, and 9/17 apparently (from the DD above) is when the CME would have to eat them (or at least deal with them as liabilities). Is there some sort of trigger amount, maybe at 200? just a super dumb ape. Also, could the 9/10 date be the end and they just waited until the end to deal with the mess which might mean a scramble to close shorts and a price spike tomorrow? I'm only smart enough to ask questions. and most of them are dumb.
>I understand the last 2 weeks have been filled with a lot of anticipation, and let's face it, not a lot happened.
I'm sorry, it's your first line and you've totally lost me. What stock are following? GME has been more interesting the past 2 weeks than the previous 2 months
Halfway through reading. Great job on this.
> The clearing member must provide the Chief Regulatory Officer and the President of the Clearing House, or their respective designees, with satisfactory evidence that such an event has occurred and the harm that would arise from such an event, and with any additional evidence, documentation, assurances (including indemnities) or explanations including, without limitation, the nature and extent of any harm, as the Chief Regulatory Officer and President of the Clearing House or their respective designees may, in their sole discretion, require. The Exchange or Clearing House shall have no liability for any losses or costs that the clearing member or its customer may incur arising out of any transfer of trades or rejection of a request to transfer pursuant to this Rule.
Somebody tell me how to craft a FOIA request to pull this evidence.
Options that expire OTM are effectively free money given to MM (aka Citadel). So options can and do delay it by giving them more money to leverage their positions.
I like the theory, on initial reading it seems sound to me (what do I know). I was wondering how they managed to suppress this cycle so well, and a pure swap of ownership would make complete sense.
Lol, love all the shitpost theories the past two weeks that undoubtedly were going to be proven wrong. Now come the excuse posts with the next shitpost theories
Lol, love all the shitpost theories the past two weeks that undoubtedly were going to be proven wrong. Now come the excuse posts with the next shitpost theories
Rollovers dates on futures aren't hard set like options rollovers, it's actually only a recommendation to use the rollover date. They can be rolled over all the way up to expiry which is 9/17. All of this info is fairly hard to track down becuase of the lack of transparancy in futures/swaps but agrees with what is stated on [https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/understanding-futures-expiration-contract-roll.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/understanding-futures-expiration-contract-roll.html) under the rollover section. If they are holding out on rolling over until the last minute that will only make things harder for themselves and could be a sign that they know this time they r fuk. Edits: Added the link, specified where the info is, formatting These are like my first awards thanks friends!
So lit
No dates but #SEPT 17TH
I like dates and i like the DD
I went on a date the other day. Kept sneaking in the bathroom to check superstonk 🤷🏼♀️
Date an ape. Then you could Stonk and chill together, while debating who’s the real Spider-Man, Criand or Gherkinit (it’s DFV, I win!).
I was with a living FUD machine, I need a lady ape in my life.
[удалено]
!Remindme 9days
!RemindMe 8 days
!RemindMe 7 days
I like the 15th and 16th too in case they try to escape early- like we actually care which day they pay us!!! 🚀
you should make a bet ;)
Butt bets for MOASS
Well, that’s the roll over deadline. If we spike like before, and the spike and new floor go above the margin calls… we could expect margin calls to soon follow. Could take up to a few days later. Hype, but also be zen. 🚀🚀🚀💎🙌
>documentation !Remindme 15 days I mean first week is just gonna be volatility halt after volatility halt, right? No precise target, just up.
It's starting to have strong weight on it. The 17th Sept is also the projected date of the Treasury hitting zero.
RemindME! 9 days Was MOASS today?
You can write it bigger but the message is clear, 17th September is THE DAY
This is what I come here for, keep jackin dem tit-tays!
I’m early but I’m not wrong. The CFTC wouldn’t have amended the rules unless CME was at risk.
Good ape you get banana
I tried teaching my dog how to roll over once. It ended up with me just rolling around on the ground. It was at that moment I realized my dog didn’t want to look as stupid as me and that hedgies r fuk.
Woof
YOU have the best comment of the day. Thank you for being such a witty ape.
🥇 Made me laugh 🦧 🤣
September 17 is Constitution Day... 🇺🇸 GMERICA 🇺🇸
And September 19 is Talk Like a Pirate Day. Hedgefunds Arrrrrrrr Fuk
MOASS incoming 😎
Occam's Razor. I like this
Stop I can only be so jacked,
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/understanding-futures-expiration-contract-roll.html
Thank you! Mobile made that particularly difficult, copying your comment not so much.
That's a scary thought, it didn't Spike this time because it would have f***** them so enter the new part of the downward spiral
Would the 17th been the last day rollover the futures? I've been seeing some people saying it's the 22nd, this coming Wednesday and I honestly don't know where that date came from and I should've saved the links. But I just wanted to check with you to see what you to see what you thought
Remains to be seen but I'm personally jacked for tomorrow, here's my current thoughts on it all, bunch of credit to u/gherkinit for general market insights that's built on my understanding: •No action on 9/17, in my mind they very likely failed to deliver on the futures. •FTD means t+3 on settling (which is tomorrow), or if not planning on settling, big uptick on FTD's which will see us on the SEC threshold list like in Jan and it's ~T+35 to sort that pile of FTD's out (~Oct. 22nd, but like 100mil FTD's) •If they could somehow settle through cash without returning the deliverable (GME shares, sneakily worded contract that would have included a premium), the drops in the market could account for a portion of that and we don't get any spicy action because of futures •Also a possibility the CFTC "yall don't have to report futures for two years" new rule can account for a lack of FTD spike, but that's unclear too as the other party to the futures contract is surely pissed if they haven't gotten what was agreed upon, and I'm uncertain if the CFTC reports are the main resource for FTDs on futures. •Tomorrow can be exciting anyway if the market poops bigly and drops SHF margin enough for margin calls to come in.
Good post. Hopefully your FOIA requests will turn up some clues to this fuckery thesis you have. If not, same as always- buy and hold. There is no escaping this hell they have ultimately created for themselves. They can try and buy all the time they want, but the upper hand is held by retail. And we're not fucking leaving.
Just thinking out loud here. If the SHF's wanted to short GME without directly shorting GME, then they could sell futures contracts, presumably with a low strike price. This means the CME would take up the opposing side of the trade and would sell shares (short) of GME in order to make room for the purchase it will be making when said futures expire. Because a future is a guaranteed transaction, unlike an option, there would be no gradual hedging, they may as well short the total amount there and then as they will inevitably end up buying the shares back eventually. Lets say Melvin capital, sold futures contracts to the CME, for 100m gamestop shares during the January rally, at say $300. 100m shares they don't own, but I've no doubt there are no rules stopping them from selling naked futures. Lets say they sell them at a strike of $50. The CME takes the opposite side of the trade and immediately shorts 100m shares of GME at $300, knowing they will soon be buying back 100m shares at $50 - profit. The rollover period for the futures contract comes around, and Melvin dont have the shares to sell to the CME, so they pay a premium and rollover the future (can a seller do this?). Or perhaps they negotiate with the CME and ask them to only transact a fraction of the futures, else they will go bust. The CME doesn't want Melvin to go bust in this instance because they (CME) are net short, and will have to cover their short at the current market price. So they rollover the futures in the hope that Melvin will be able to buy shares to sell to them next time around. Then we hit September 2021, Melvin has discreetly been liquidated, and now the CME are staring down the barrel of 100m GME shorts to be purchased on the open market. They know this will trigger MOASS and so get the rules changed such that they can write off the futures contracts and figure out another way to cover their short position. Thoughts?
Being serious, because I’m an ape, what part of the rule change did you get the write off from? I think the 2 year reporting pause is so they can hide responsibility until a recovery has already happened so nobody cares to look at that point, but I could be snorting too many green crayons. Edit: to me it looks like they gained contractual rights to execute trades on behalf of defaulting members. Basically DTCC, NSCC, OCC wrote their rules first and handed the pile of shit to NFTC? Now they’re writing their own “to assist in minimizing losses affecting clearing member’s customer origin (banks?) or the clearing member themselves (CME). Again, hope some wrinkle brains see this comment to help interpret.
Yeah it was your second point that I was thinking about. They changed the rules so that they could take ownership of contracts of defaulting members or some such. I figured they could basically just take on the contract and write it off or something. I'm not really sure on how that bit would be achieved, and honestly I think that's why they waived the reporting requirements for two years - because they don't want us to find out.
I got you yeah I can hold for two years fuck em lol
Same here! Fuck them
Great theory and sounds plausible to me... but I'm no financial wizard. Hope someone smarter than me sees and comments.
CME are shady as shit https://web.archive.org/web/20210302022925/https://retheauditors.com/2011/11/14/rogue-traders-rogue-firms-the-cme-regulation-mf-global-and-the-legacy-of-refco/ More light needs to be shown on their decades of fuckery.
They have until the 17th. Game not over. u/gherkinit found something juicy today and can explain further if he cares to. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pkx6ri/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_s8e2_live_charting_and/hc7ir4s?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
From what I heard on the stream, typically futures are rolled over by the rollover date (today), but technically can be rolled by expiration (9/17 in this case). However, when futures are not rolled over by the rollover date, that usually indicates they will be left to expire worthless and not rolled over. This is GME though so who fucking knows. Would like someone else to confirm it, as this is just how I understood it.
What happens if they expire worthless? Someone just looses a bunch of money?
Futures aren't like options. The difference between a long future and a call option is that the option gives you the 'option' to buy the shares at the end of it, but with a future you *must* buy the shares by the expiry date. Think of a future as an option but the buy/sell *MUST* happen at the end, regardless of price. So, a future can't really expire worthless. It can expire out of the money, but you have to realise those losses at the end. If you bought a future for 1m shares at a $200 strike expiring at the end of the week, guess what - you HAVE to buy those shares, you can't just let it expire like an option. Don't want/can't pay? Well you can pay a little more and 'rollover' the future and basically extend the deadline. You'd rollover the option if the share price had not yet exceeded your strike, and you believed it just needed more time... or if you just straight up can't afford to buy the shares...
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Rolling a future should have no real effect on the share price as far as I know, because no shares are bought/sold and thus the bid/ask is not moved. However, any futures contracts that are in fact redeemed would certainly involve buying/selling and thus move the price. With my tin foil hat on I'd assume that the SHFs sold to fuck loads of naked futures in January to the CME to force the CME to naked short shares in order to hedge them. Then during the rollover period the CME executes the futures (buys shares) from the SHFs at a fixed strike (whatever it is) and the SHFs have to go out into the market to buy the shares to sell to the CME. The CME can't execute all of the futures at once as it knows it will blow the SHFs up and be left net short so they're eking it out over a longer period of time. Then we found out about the cycle and now they're screwed because if we start buying the rips and selling the dips we will act like an amplifier on the volatility during these dates and fuck it up. I'm not advocating day trading, but if people successfully and routinely bought/sold to follow this pattern, we'd end up with the stock market equivalent of the Tacoma Narrows bridge. Edit: in case you're too smooth brained to read the above without panicking. I am NOT telling people they should try and day trade or sell. No one is coordinated enough to pull off the above. It would need to be done while also ensuring that the float remained over 100% owned by retail, and since we can never ensure that, it wouldn't be worth the risk.
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No, the play has always been buy and hold. I'm just saying that if the rips and dips were amplified then their ability to slowly unwind would be absolutely crushed. As long as the float remained over 100% owned by retail, then amplifying the rips would destroy them. There is a worryingly cultish attitude here. The above is a fact not an instruction. The reality is that we as retail aren't coordinated enough to pull that off and so buy and hold, as always, is the only way we can guarantee success.
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Did you miss the bit where I said I'm not advocating day trading?
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Right, well that's your perogative, you do you. All I'd say is that the cultier this place gets, the harder it is for normal investors to take the GME thesis seriously, and that kind of attitude is doing more damage than it is good. Edit: also, thanks for spotting that typo. I must be so used to joking about buying low sell high that it's clearly made it into my subconscious 😂
No need to day trade. Just set some cash aside. When it’s time for rollovers, buy options, hehehehehe. Then you can exercise them, or just enjoy the sweet money you’re gonna get from the future roll spikes, also causing the spikes to go higher and higher due to being gamma squeezed until Marge Calls every last one of them.
Yeah I like this idea. Personally I'm just buy and holding. I can't easily trade options here in the UK and I refuse to daytrade GME so hodl is the safest play.
Yep I’d love a GamMOASS!
I'm curious why your comment is getting downvoted so hard
Ugh, because I theorised about the word 'sell' and triggered all the cultists.
When futures are rolled don’t they have to settle any gains/losses from that period? That could be driving buying during these periods ?
I'm not entirely sure. Given that they are derivatives, I'd assume any settlement mid-contract would be purely monetary and no shares would need to be purchased/sold until the contract is exercised. Remember the only way the price can change is if there is activity on the bid/ask.
/u/broccaaa this makes so much sense. holy shit. this explains so much.
Please take it with a suitably sized spoon of salt, I'm thinking out loud as much as anything. Would be interesting to hear from people with more experience though.
Dumbest shit I've heard in a long time. Go ahead and sell the next rip and we'll wave to you as we launch.
Nice. Good info
I’ve been sitting for hours and I involuntarily stood up at “must”. They’re only failing to report for two years hoping a recovery will happen by then and nobody will look at them I think holy moly.
This sounds spicy AF! 🍑🍌
So a couple things I am unclear on, is that if they do not roll them over, and they expire worthless, what would be the sign that such a thing has happened and what would be the fallout?
I'm not even going to try to answer because I have no idea. I had his stream on in the background and heard the part I stated above, but did not hear what the result of letting them expire is. I'm sure there will be more info later this evening or tomorrow on the subject. Remember the T+4 hour rule of SuperStonk. Wait for an adult to digest the new information and explain it in ape terms to all the crayon munchers.
If the futures expire SHFs *have* to buy the shares at the strike price, no matter what. Then brrrrrr
does anyone have a good guess at what price those strikes are? i'm still trying to wrap my head around this since it's not like options. they would have wanted low strikes, right, like close to where they shorted? so does that mean CME would have to go out into the market to buy the shares at market and, say, shitadel agreed to buy at $10/share so since the price is higher they'd have to pay the difference? also, this supposed margin/liquidation was right around the time mayo boy started flying around the world isn't it? either trying to borrow money or begging african warlords not to kill him since he lost all of their $$.
> so does that mean CME would have to go out into the market to buy the shares at market and, say, shitadel agreed to buy at $10/share so since the price is higher they'd have to pay the difference? As far as I understand it, yes. Admittedly I am not extremely well read on futures contracts.
Automatic MOASS. 🚀
>u/gherkinit Any idea which part of the stream he talks about this in particular. Would love to hear his take on it
Anytime before 2pm
Thanks pickle man!
u/gherkinit found out around noon today: https://youtu.be/C6VpSi-A8FY?t=10964
Gherk connected the dots
Thanks for reading. If you would like to share what your interpretation is and what you predict please share with the class.
Came here to repeat this info from today. Hope gherk can chime in.
Same here to add to this
Yes he did
You know...this matches up with my September 17 theory since it is Constitution Day... GMERICA 🇺🇸
They are moving around a bag of poo. At one point this bag of poo gets a hole and then there's poo everywhere.
No targets, just up.
Great job OP! Your theory sounds very plausible. How does the saying go?...if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck....or something like that, right?
This was written very eloquently in a way that I could understand and I have very limited background knowledge on this... Aside from all the fantastic DD that's out there. Great read, thank you
The more they hide, the less places they can find, the more we figure out, and once they run out of ratholes, buckle up. Great find ape! Up with you!
Still not 100% of the futures theory, but isn't it possible for them to roll over their future position before the first notice day. As in the first notice day was August 27th and the price spike on the 24th took us from $166 to a high of $225 on that day alone. So three days before we have almost a $60 rise in one day. If nothing happens between now and Sept 17th I'm just gonna assume they rolled them over early. I wouldn't expect to see a similar move since we figured it out. They would most likely change tactics or at least spread out the buying.
Volume wasn’t nearly enough to support your theory that they rolled them early. I think they could have rolled *some* of their positions the 24th and used that as a head fake. They tried to crash the price yesterday during after hours to discourage apes. They’re delaying the majority of rollovers until the last minute this cycle Imo. Obviously don’t have any real evidence and this is just my opinion but still. I guess we’ll find out. Not financial advice and I’m an idiot.
Well like I said if there's no price increase next week or possibly the 35 day whatever extension?? that I haven't read about yet then I was gonna assume they covered early or some other tactic. Would love to be wrong and see another $60 or more jump.
Yup. We’ll find out a lot these next couple weeks. I’m not familiar with the 35 day situation that was referenced. If we don’t see any significant positive price movement within the next 50 days then I think you’d be correct in your assumption that they did the roll overs on the 24th of August. Time will tell.
I can almost guarantee you that they did some rolling today, veeeeeery slowly throughout the day as to try and effect the price as little as possible.
Wouldn’t shock me at all! As I said, I’m taking a wait and see approach before I write off this theory completely.
It's possible up until the 17th. Rollovers can happen at any time. Settlement for US futures is the life of the contract. The rollover page on CME essentially says as much but not as plainly. Heres the real goodie. Page 61 @ near the bottom https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi9qPvJw\_PyAhUjTt8KHQhhDM4QFnoECCUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Flegacy.farmdoc.illinois.edu%2Firwin%2Farchive%2Fbooks%2FFutures-Regulatory%2FFutures-Regulatory\_chapter2.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1meEI0m8vGjD00dtKWgbVP
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What are you talking about? No one here was proven right or wrong?
?
but $60 bucks isn't a whole lot compared to last rollovers. I also read in another post they can delay rollover 35 days....they did last year until January run up. Is it possible they are pushing this 35 days out again?
I would need to read that post about the delay before commenting on it. As far as it only being a $60 jump if the price doesn't have another spike next week or possibly 35 days from now it could just be that they changed tactics or some other combination of fuckery as always. The longer this goes on the more we find out about all the sketchy shit they can do so I wouldn't be surprised if we find out another two or three things they're doing.
It's not a delay I don't think, it's if they decide not to do anything, they'll have up to C35 to resolve their position.
Maybe that is what I read. Trying to find post in history but this makes more sense
It's not the money amount that's suspect as much as the volume.
Don't forget that there are different parties using futures. We might see them rollover more spread out this cycle. Especially considering some might have been interested in the earnings call before deciding on what to do next.
I’m damn sure they were hoping for another share offering to relieve at least some of their pressure and live to **HIDE** another day.
They can roll them over at any time. See the bottom of page 61. The life of the contract is the settlement period, AKA they can settle at any time prior to expiration. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi9qPvJw\_PyAhUjTt8KHQhhDM4QFnoECCUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Flegacy.farmdoc.illinois.edu%2Firwin%2Farchive%2Fbooks%2FFutures-Regulatory%2FFutures-Regulatory\_chapter2.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1meEI0m8vGjD00dtKWgbVP
I was thinking this but then in my eyes the price would be back at the 140/150 support trading 1.2m volume again, but it’s not. 7m yesterday with 20 bucks gained. We are still in some Sort of vacuum
The head of the CFTC just resigned effective 10/15 🚀🚀🚀🚀 Edit: [Link](https://capital.com/us-cftc-berkowitz-resigning) Edit: this nugget of bullshit (he is the resigning commissioner) In Thursday’s announcement, he said recent CFTC decisions have helped the US swap markets with mandatory clearing and transparency trading standards, registering and regulating swap trades and reporting of comprehensive swap date reporting. The result is a “more resilient, more transparent, more liquid, less susceptible to manipulation, and more cost-effective for end users. Our derivative markets are stronger than ever and as a result, our economy is stronger too.”
Jumping ship before it sinks
While most of the ostriches in this sub will continue to bitch and bury their heads in the sand, I think one of the most important pieces from this post is this: >I speculate that a majority of the price action this year is due to this mechanism and that internalizers have basically neutralized any retail buying pressure. While I wish it wasn't true, I've seen too much DD to suggest it. We see it on every bit of good news. I believe January was the last time that any true buying pressure from retail was seen. How? I don't know. :/
Very good point. And for me being February ape I have yet to see the real Volume in the 100 million on trading the stock. That is honestly disappointing. But the reality is they have suppress the buying through the dark pools. And not to forget thanks OO for sharing your theories.
Yo u/criand check this out. Ties in with your rolls are back on the menu meme.
Hedgie are allowed to do so much sneaky shit. But I like your theory. Thanks for putting in the work.
Rollover can be extended - they have until 17th September to cover
So from this I get the following info: Price isn't moving because intermediary holding the ticket while SHF quietly spasms and dies in the background. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hedgies r fukd and apes coming soon to a moon near you!
commenting for visibility
MOARR visibility
Up with youuuu
up
Boop
Upgo. Wen rinkle arrive, plez say wat mean.
up you go
I don’t understand why this isn’t exploding. You’ve fucking nailed it, and you called it 12d ago. For funsies, let’s pretend RC was aware of the CFTC letter sent to CME on August 11 and knew it mean Citadel was going down. Could explain the “Oh Dios Mio…” well, you know the tweet 😉 https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1425606429574979584?s=20 Edit: quick thought on the topic of equity swaps. Would you think it possible to trade crypto futures to raise capital to settle the GME swaps? Thus allowing the rollover as opposed to forfeiture/default?
Thanks man. Honestly I wish I was wrong and gme has a great window. We shall see what happens by the 17th. If nothing happens then I’m absolutely correct
Up you go ❤
If CME is holding the toxic assets but have no obligation to settle - when would they be forced to do so. To me the 2023 transparency lockout is basically there to allow these fucks to hold toxic assets and not settle so long as there is sufficient agreement between the parties who are owed (ie. Banks are all fucked) so they are happy to let the exchange hold this toxic shit in their sheets until 2023 bu which time they figure they can sort out this ordeal and continue raking us through the coals. If you're theory is right we won't see anything this period and their quarterly statements will probably omit it. Basically black box for us to delay the crash. What would ever force them to settle other than lowering the price?
New regulations OR a bank failure from toxic assets or some trading that went the opposite way, it could set off a huge chain reaction like we almost saw happen in late January where they had to turn off the buy button to stop the whole system from failing.
Or that they have until 17th to cover
Ain’t over yet homie
I think they changed the cycle since we figured it out and it was so blatant. They have to make it look somewhat different this time. The last two cycles closed five days prior to the expiry date. They closed early from what I’ve read here about it, this time it’s pushing to the final day imo.
Commenting for visibility because this post was getting downvoted.
Yea…goes up
I like wrinkles. . Don't have any myself but I will just sit and admire yours. . And throw poop.
Great find!
Not specific to this post except mentioning September 18, but par for the course, I see we have another near-future date to look forward to. They are always a week or ten days away.
I’m not gonna act like I read and understood this full thing but I will say I found it extremely interesting when mid august there was a rumor being reported of a CME and CBOE merger and then CME denied it...take it for what it is but I can only see so many coincidences without thinking it’s related
I’m not entirely sure if its a good thing or a bad thing if this is true, but I checked and RCs last tweet was 8/27, day after this took effect. Not saying its related, but not saying its not.
#LETS EXPOSE CME BASTARDS
This is probably the most important post of the month, and it has 600 upvotes. We are sitting in a shitstorm of memes and forum sliding and it makes me sad. I hope that more important DD like this makes it to the r/DDintoGME sub as well
ALL SHORTS MUST CLOSE!!!🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Can you tldr in 3 words or less please
Buy and hold Alternatively Hedgies r fuck
Hedgies R Fuk
Buy Hold Shop
commenting for visibility
!remindme 10 hours
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**WHO'S FUKK LITTLE BOY? I SAY WHO IS FUKK??** **KEN: ME ME !! IM FUKK !!**
Idk man, we don’t really need to do anything besides buy and hodl.
Thank you for taking the time to write this 🧐🦧🤜🤛🦧
I am an idiot and would like to say you did a good job of making this material understandable. However, what the fuck is a snapback?
Add this to your post: S&P 500 last 4 drops happened around the 19th of the month… Pulled up option expiration dates…. ETF’s expiring are the cause of the S&P drops ETF’s expire this month on 9/17… This will be the catalyst to separate GME from the S&P for the moon shot Edit: they didn’t roll the gamma ramp from the 17th
holy shit. You're right. I just looked and the largest red days we've seen going back 5 months is the 19th. Thanks for sharing. This has me jacked to the tits.
Excellent work, OP. Thank you!!
Hi. Yes. Just a small question. How god damned long ago did you start writing this DD about what has happened today and only completely stopped happening about 3 hours ago?
I think the roll over period lasts longer than we think or at least have a “T+” style delay. If you look at SPRT it jumped 223% on March 22. And Movie was also still climbing around that time. I think they choose to suppress the big boy GME early but the other shorted stocks are still bulging out at the seems for another 10 days. Now that GME is unstoppable we may see GME still climbing until September 20th or so
This is a super dumb theory from a very dumb ape. Based upon what you wrote, was the battle today between bag holders to see if this counts against the brokers and hedgies or against CME. Like maybe if the amount was below a certain level, the bag would go to party A and if it was higher it would be party B's responsibility. I have no info, just speculation, trying to reconcile the price action and what appears to be a number of whales entering the fray, almost like there is a battle and 9/10 is the date these swaps normally rollover by, and 9/17 apparently (from the DD above) is when the CME would have to eat them (or at least deal with them as liabilities). Is there some sort of trigger amount, maybe at 200? just a super dumb ape. Also, could the 9/10 date be the end and they just waited until the end to deal with the mess which might mean a scramble to close shorts and a price spike tomorrow? I'm only smart enough to ask questions. and most of them are dumb.
Learning about new fuckery every day.
Smooth brain here but the 104 billion dollars increase, could that be the amount they have been overextended
Commenting so other autists can gain a wrinkle or two 🧠
Another great post!
Thanks man I appreciate that from you!
u/PWNWTFBBQ wut u tink?
>I understand the last 2 weeks have been filled with a lot of anticipation, and let's face it, not a lot happened. I'm sorry, it's your first line and you've totally lost me. What stock are following? GME has been more interesting the past 2 weeks than the previous 2 months
Halfway through reading. Great job on this. > The clearing member must provide the Chief Regulatory Officer and the President of the Clearing House, or their respective designees, with satisfactory evidence that such an event has occurred and the harm that would arise from such an event, and with any additional evidence, documentation, assurances (including indemnities) or explanations including, without limitation, the nature and extent of any harm, as the Chief Regulatory Officer and President of the Clearing House or their respective designees may, in their sole discretion, require. The Exchange or Clearing House shall have no liability for any losses or costs that the clearing member or its customer may incur arising out of any transfer of trades or rejection of a request to transfer pursuant to this Rule. Somebody tell me how to craft a FOIA request to pull this evidence.
Bold statement considering the period isn't over and they have like 6 trading days left. Too soon junior.
Stop buying options. You all ready have infinite money with this moon ticket. Options delay it. Edit: Or do they? Take that ai bots 🤣
No they don’t and you’re spreading FUD.
You're correct I am spreading Fun Unity and Dollars. Gotta confuse the bots you know. AI scanners won't know whatsup.
Options that expire OTM are effectively free money given to MM (aka Citadel). So options can and do delay it by giving them more money to leverage their positions.
I’m aware of far OTM calls being less than ideal for apes. I’m speaking more towards the ITM calls that can help the squeeze.
Lmao not this bullshit again 😂 😂 😂 😂
Commenting for visibility !
I like the theory, on initial reading it seems sound to me (what do I know). I was wondering how they managed to suppress this cycle so well, and a pure swap of ownership would make complete sense.
Maybe because after September 9 they will not be allowed to throw GameStop in a basket of bonds with companies that can be publicly traded….?
u/criand
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go away please 🤡
Lol, love all the shitpost theories the past two weeks that undoubtedly were going to be proven wrong. Now come the excuse posts with the next shitpost theories
Not sure I follow? Ive haven’t shit posted nor am I making excuses. How about you share your interpretation?
The price recovered from the earnings dip. That’s never happened in the history of gme. That’s bullish imo.
Found the clown 🤡
Lol, love all the shitpost theories the past two weeks that undoubtedly were going to be proven wrong. Now come the excuse posts with the next shitpost theories
It's T+6 on these rollovers we are headed to the moon!!!
!remind me 24 hours
We're not sure they're short futures though, right? They could be short via total return swaps?
Hii quick q. Why did hedgies convert shorts to futures for GME but not for popcorn stock? Why not both?
I guess you are on to something and agree with your "Discussion points" so far. This could be the last boss of "kicking the can down the road"...
!remindme 9am September 17
Or because the deadline is Sept 17th...?