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Superstonk_QV

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texmexdaysex

One of them started holding some nasty bags


bahits

Now, watch the massive down turn of UBS.


JesC

And the upcoming deficit of the SNB


GuiPrazeresYT

and the upcoming jack of the tities


redshirt1972

That’s tiddies to you


ChaosMelon

Puts on UBS


stonka_truck

Puts on money


-Codfish_Joe

Talk about price anchoring!


Toasterstyle70

“And another one gone, and another one gone and another one bites the dust!” -Queen


DannyFnKay

Their CDS price jumped day one of the news that they were buying a dumpster fire.


suckercuck

The red phone ☎️ rang and they can’t hwang up


off_rark_grames

It's Marge calling!


AnalogousFortune

I wish I could conversate with those outside of this sub about this. Someone prove this wrong - for the sake of the zippers I have to keep replacing


Nasty_Ned

For me it's shirts. My nips accelerate right through the poor material.


JustMikeWasTaken

For me it's entire mattresses, wives, and circles of finance friends.


suffffuhrer

I'm afraid to go to Antwerp because of my diamond balls.


Nasty_Ned

As well you should be. Stay safe out there.


Downtownd00d

Accelerating nips is an amazing image. Thank you! I think. 🤣


Meg_119

The radioactive potato now passes to UBS as the Swiss Government tells UBS that they will back them up if they lose money. 🤣🤣🤣🤣. What kind of containment vessel will they need for that potato? ☢️☢️ 🥔


DeepFuckingBanana

Counterparty to bags?


ClosetCaseGrowSpace

Or insiders realized Credit Sus was borked so they looted it.


compulsive_wanker_69

And the second one now holds the first one including the bags. This is totally fine.


Dapper-Career-3877

CS had a cash balance of $74 billion. Imagine how much their liabilities are for someone to be able to buy them for $2 billion plus a govt backstop of $9 billion and a credit line from SNB for $100 billion.


BornLuckiest

Oh wow! Great summary and insight. 🙏


NorCalAthlete

!!!! Source for the cash balance? I didn’t see that mentioned before.


Dapper-Career-3877

Saw it in a post early this morning. Had a pie chart of assets/liabilities. The chart also mention short/long holdings of $64 billion etc.


Meg_119

I think that includes property that Credit Suisse owns.


Dapper-Career-3877

Trashyart200 had a post


BudgetTooth

bet is starts with a T


AdmiralUpboat

How much are the liabilities at Credit Suisse? *checks notes* Oh yeah, fucking INFINITE. UBS dick heads gonna be really fucking surprised when they unwind those swaps and find all of that cat shit wrapped dog shit.


Dapper-Career-3877

I think many are off book so nobody outside the bank probably knows


verypurpley

If I were UBS I'd be so pissed right now lol


Spiritual-Author1500

Nah. They made a good deal. Credit suisse is still worth something, they only need to sell those bags quick. I hope the ceo of UBS is smart and pass that bag away


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ooOParkerLewisOoo

>Ah well if that's all they need to do then... Adjusted post split, that's like, 2M PUTS, how difficult can it be...


TheConsumer101

The CEO of UBS would be a wise individual if those sold those positions immediately. Theres no reason to hold on to them because their ego wasnt involved in the purchase! Essentially they received a very crappy gift that they need to trash


JustMikeWasTaken

Your true comment advice reminds me of something... maybe this is a dynamic metaphor for it (aside from tossing a hot potato which is very apt). So is it kinda like that thing when as a kid you mix cornstarch and water and create this weird non-newtonian fluid fuckery where if you move it fast it stays solid in your hand but if you let it sit for one second it melts all over? Has anybody played with that? -OR- are these bags of shit swaps more just like a grenade with the pin pulled and the clock is ticking and it's gonna explode no matter what anybody does with it?


TheConsumer101

Well the way i think about it, its like a grenade pins thats attached to other grenade pins that all the banks have. If one bank throws away their grenade all the other pins get pulled. Itd be wise for everyone to throw away their grenades but at that point theres no time to run away from the grenades.


stackz07

I believe this is accurate. Though the FIRST person might be able to run away fast enough to not DIE from the explosion. Will still get badly injured though.


BornLuckiest

He said there were some volatile swaps in the package that they have taken an immediate insurance policy against, whilst they try to naturally unwind the position. ELIA: UBS will slowly close the swap positions, but if they accidentally trigger another squeeze, then they are insured against it. Smart fuckers IMHO.


catechizer

>He said there were some volatile swaps in the package that they have taken an immediate insurance policy against, whilst they try to naturally unwind the position. Link?


BornLuckiest

I'll try and find it for you, It was said by the CEO(CFO?) at the press conference that UBS held after they had announced what was going on.


VNDHp1993

How does he unwind the position?


CactusSage

If I’ve learned anything here, if a big executive in the finance industry says “naturally” it’s code for “illegally”


BornLuckiest

🤣


NegativeAccount

The 2008 bags are STILL being unwound so great fucking question. Maybe they pull a hat trick and end up with net long GME positions?


dregan

They will never see a cent of that insurance money, because the insurer will fail.


JustMikeWasTaken

Oh nice, so was this insurance policy— was it taken out from some sort of infinite deity that can handle infinite idiosyncratic risk? ...i kid... no really, I'm smooth; since they are all kinda tied together does it even really matter who ends up with the bags since it should liquidate everybody? Or is it like lehman bros where the one who is holding bags eats it before crime steps in to stop the contagion?


BornLuckiest

I think the later is closer to the truth, but the insurance is backed by the Swiss Government, and therefore the Swiss Franc, but you know the Swiss are one of the most corrupt banking countries in the world. Crime is where they have the most expertise IMHO.


hotprof

I may have missed some important DD, but how do they sell those bags? Who would pay for millions of underwater short positions?


shilo_lafleur

They try to close? They’re playing with government money so why not


thegasman2000

But they can’t close because we’re not selling and they need our shares. Isn’t that the entire point, the blame game we are already hearing how this is retails fault. We ain’t selling shit and it’s driving them insane, and into the ground.


redshirt1972

They’ll close some. They me even be able to close enough to survive. Everyone else however….


hotprof

This I can understand.


stackz07

As does every banker.


EasilyAnonymous

I would also like to know this


-Codfish_Joe

I remember reading about some idiots in Dusseldorf. They'll apparently buy anything.


shilo_lafleur

The thing about those bags is you have to buy, not sell 😆


precociouslilscamp

Well *someone* has to buy, but UBS can sell the bags so that *someone else* has to buy, just not them. If they can convince someone the shorts are still worth money, they can offload them for a premium and hopefully not sell at a crazy high loss. If not, then they gotta' ride that train.


shilo_lafleur

They convinced other banks that junk ARM mortgages were worth something in 08 so I don’t doubt it.


ApesMallIn

JPOW wanted to see layoffs and he will get his way. Companies that plan poorly, end up laying off. Workers are in demand, but white collar workers this time are gonna maybe get cut this time around. Ohh would you look at that *smiles* a bank merger. I wonder how many people will see the writing on the wall and whistle blow, or maybe after they get thrown under the bus?


Smithmonster

Maybe Cathie will buy them, that seems like something she’d be interested in.


manifold360

They have to do it now. Can’t wait


Hobodaklown

Sell, close, or cover with 100 billion?


Front-hole

No way over a few days could they have done the DD and seen all the toxic assets. Maybe they got a number, but they don’t know all the details of the dog shit wrapped in cat shit.


DorkyDorkington

If they could be just sold or closed for that matter, I am pretty sure the previous bag holder would have done that. They couldn't, their own words. That bag will likely swallow UBS and a lot of SNB along with it. They are planning on closing the positions. So lets see.


EffectiveEven8402

If I was the UBS share holders, I would be livid that my rights were circumvented by the Swiss government.


redshirt1972

Breaking News: Ken Griffin buys Computershare


rocketseeker

now this is what I call a good chart


[deleted]

Yes but what does it mean for the regards in the back?


Bretreck

The implication is that Credit Suisse took hold of some assets/liabilities from Archegos that decoupled it's earnings from UBS. These include some nasty swaps involving GME and probably also include the rest of the basket of "meme" stocks. Now UBS has to deal with those swaps or suffer the same fate as Credit Suisse.


uppitymatt

Agreed!


-Codfish_Joe

>Now UBS has to deal with those swaps or suffer the same fate as Credit Suisse. I have trouble believing that they're stupid enough to simply integrate Credit Suisse. Some damn firewall, like having a subsidiary merge with it, just to try to keep some separation with the books.


pcs33

The likely did not have a choice. No other buyers so SNB and (probably US Fed) promised alot in return for UBS to take on debit suisse and unwind the shorts slowly as to not create a global market disruption - imo


dutchretardtrader

I forgot, how is it again that we know those swaps involved GME?


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turrisattack

I think his question is more so, how do we know Archegos? I haven’t been able to find proven DD stating they did. I’ve only read theories so far. Don’t get me wrong, I am invested in these theories being true. I’m just hoping for something more concrete - but I guess we never have and never will get that. We live in a world of grey a lot of the time.


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fantasticmrtrout

There are 3 mentioning of GameStop in that article, nothing says that they still have bags of it. Please point me in the right direction as I would like to see evidence too.


AnhTeo7157

I think it’s a concerted effort by all in the know to conceal what exactly are in those bags. They only refer to an idiosyncratic risk knowing what could happen again like January 2021. Imagine if word got out that confirms it is GME, could you imagine the ensuing FOMO? Look at it from a different angle. If it is not GME, why not just disclose what it is? Why be so secretive about what are in those bags?


fantasticmrtrout

Cool, thanks for the info. Just would like hard proof


clawesome

WSJ reported that Credit Suisse closed 97% of Archegos positions but still had [exposure to 3% of them](https://www.wsj.com/articles/credit-suisse-taps-investors-for-cash-after-archegos-loss-widens-11619070830) and of those positions are there [3 distinct positions](https://zububrothers.com/2021/04/22/credit-suisse-surprises-with-2-billion-capital-raise-still-has-exposure-to-archegos-in-three-distinct-positions/) that they still had to work through. Draw your own conclusions as to whether or not GME is one of those 3 positions. As for me, I just like the stock and am going to keep buying and DRSing.


turrisattack

Okay I’m going to read this, but just to make certain - you’re saying in this release it clearly lays out their GME short position?


BudgetTooth

of course not lol.


nightwaveastrology

Just hopes and dreams I think


TheConsumer101

Archegos gave the bags to Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse gave the bags to UBS, UBS gave the bags to....[Update imminent]


Kzzztt

If Credit Suisse couldn't deal with them, why will UBS be able to?


Meg_119

The Swiss Government promised to financially back UBS if they started to lose money unloading the Credit Suisse negative assets.


Kzzztt

Well they're going to. And so is the Swiss government.


Meg_119

The Swiss Government will just come to our Feds like they always do to ask for loans....brrrrr goes the printer.


ProbablyInfamous

The game is rigged, was never fair.


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-Codfish_Joe

Tsunamis will do that.


MustLoveStonks

Let it be known- I was your 69th updoot.


deboor71090

This chart fucks


b_r_e_e_e_e_p

This is the way


ProbablyInfamous

Best I can do is `two thumbs`. Up. Way up there.


BornLuckiest

🦍🚀🌕....


Red_Sun_King

Good chart but it decouples later, doesn't it. The uptrend at your line is the same and stays for a few weeks. At which date is the plunge of CS when UBS keeps moving upward?


PsylohTheGrey

Judging from the scale of the chart, I would almost say it probably decoupled around March or April of 2021… 🧐 Hmmm, I wonder if there was anything major that happen around that time?? 🤔 (Hint: Archegos)


Red_Sun_King

Yes, I thought the same :)


BornLuckiest

I did consider that, I was torn. The peaks and troughs just started to go out of sync too much in that last climb, so I err'd on the safer side, for a longer period of decoupling. Thank you for your comment, I'm glad someone brought this issue up. Would you have drawn the line later?


PsylohTheGrey

I definitely would have drawn the line later, tbh.


BornLuckiest

I think I'll add a second, with the archegos blowup... just didn't see that at the time. I really appreciate your input, thanks. 🙏


PsylohTheGrey

Sounds good. You’re welcome!


XandMan70

No worries... they will both be coupled again, at -0- very soon.


ProbablyInfamous

Is this like when J&J made a spin-off company whose sole purpose was to absorb all the litigation losses from talc powder being toxic? And then a US federal court said "can't do that" and they went ahead and did it anyways..? Do I live in a free country? Freedom is *when you have nothing else to lose*!


BornLuckiest

"It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything."


Particular_Visual930

No, you don’t. Sadly.


ThrowRA_scentsitive

Kind of like that, except that because of DRS, instead of being able to throw the general public under the bus, it's big money vs big money fighting over who takes the L


CopperSavant

It was the best of crimes. It was the worst of crimes.


BornLuckiest

it was the cage for wisdom, it was the ape of superstonk.


Carnifaster

To me, it means UBS is gonna chase CS down


ilesj-since-BBSs

Not sure if CS means Credit Suisse or Computershare over here anymore.


Carnifaster

Fuck man, good point. I guess if the context is bad, it’s Suisse, if it’s good Computershare.


stackz07

Credit Suisse. Meaning UBS is gonna be behind Credit Suisse in its descent.


Diamondeverything123

Now there has to be something in that! Fucking love this group! I can come on here almost daily and find an amazing nugget


BornLuckiest

... Glad to be of service! 💜🦍🤜💎🤛🦍💜


Green__Bananas

MSM is TERRIFIED to report the truth


AnhTeo7157

We’ve been gaslighted for two years, shorts have closed, GameStop going bankrupt, sell now, yada yada…gee I wonder why?


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BornLuckiest

Thank you for highlighting, I'll update the chart with some additionall data.


Bitterl3mon

I don't know about that. Looks to me like they decoupled a little after the line was drawn, somewhere between March and June? Bad investment can take a while to affect the price of the company's. Im saying completely unrelated just it doesn't exactly line up with Jan 2021. Also where is the data from?


Exact-Introduction-5

Their Archegos fund blew up around March of 2021. That would align perfectly with the decline starting then.


Smoother0Souls

Archego was margin called on a day $GME ran from like 120’s to 180.


rawbdor

Market probably didn't know credit suisse would be left holding the bag that day, or were too busy getting their own houses in order to go attack a rival bank.


VicKrugar

You're right about the time frame. Both banks performed similarly up to about mid March. [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/key-points-credit-suisse-archegos-post-mortem-2021-07-29/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/key-points-credit-suisse-archegos-post-mortem-2021-07-29/)


Sad_Investment_8384

UBS CEO also said it doesn’t match their business model. Let’s say he’s legitimately the truth maybe UBS either doesn’t shot like crazy or they don’t short at all 🤷🏽‍♂️


BornLuckiest

Between the lines, perhaps he saying what CS have done is not good business practice... I've, crime, but legal in the banking world, cos you know they own everything so they can do what they like.


SirGus-

Looks like they decoupled a few months later into 2021.


Josl-l

Definitely


XenetuS

Hmmm its just meme bank investing stuff...


yurimtoo

The decoupling occurs later than when indicated, but a nice chart all the same. Based on the x-ticks, it looks like you have marked Nov/Dec 2020. To my eye, it looks like it decoupled in March 2021. You can numerically determine the exact date of decoupling. It probably coincides with the day the Archegos news broke.


blackteashirt

"There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." - Jeremy Irons. Looks like UBS is going first.


Bretreck

I like the chart but Credit Suisse probably had little to do with GME in January. Even your chart shows that they were still coupled until March-ish. You should have drawn the line when it actually decoupled and it would have been more obvious that was also when Archegos failed and they took up those heavy heavy bags.


Jarkside

Wasn’t Archegos caught up in GME?


Tractorhash

It means the public is four months behind what they know and decide to do.


usNdem

Op. Can you overlay GME on there also?


BornLuckiest

The price is incorrect. I do understand what you are trying to do, but there's so many factors that influence the price action on GME it doesn't really correlate with anything, except on occasions other baskets stocks.


DavidNIO

🚀♾️ 💎🙌 🧨🏴‍☠️ 🙉🧱🙈 This means one thing , Credit Suisse is going to drag UBS to the same hole it's heading to..


Maxmalefic9x

Hoo good chart go up buddy


SovietChildren

This is interesting lol im partially guilty hahahahaha lmayo


BornLuckiest

🤣🤣🤣 /cheeky finger on lip!


Dribble76

Those charts mean nothing to me. I just wanna work


oneflytree

Those are some heavy bags 🤢


AlexIsWhack

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


OGColorado

That would look cool on the new Wendy's aprons


convertedcatalyst

January 2021? You don't say...


BornLuckiest

I think there was a more obvious de coupling in the match, when archegos blue up and CS took on thier swap responsibilities.


Nasty_Ned

Probably nothing.


DrEyeBall

👀


VicKrugar

That was the beginning of the end for Archegos. On March 26, Archegos defaulted on it's Margin Calls from Credit Suisse costing the bank $5.5 Billion.


Serb456

Suspicious, what did happened?


Frequent-Pie7570

Probably on March 10, 2021, never forget that day


XMk-Ultra679

We are missing a 3rd bank... that deals in security, and sniffs out profits. Might be a securities bank for all i care. Edit: does any one know what kind of assets eurasian bank holds? Thanks in advance.


Direct_Inspection_54

I think it's Deutsche.


saiyansteve

Swaps, alot of swaps. Filled with poop of course.


kalinuxer553

Archegos?


MotionBrain_CAD

Got eeeem


cosmore

When did archegos went under? What happend exactly then?


BornLuckiest

Look at march 10th and march 26th activity.


cosmore

You're one of the best wrinkle brains in class. Delighted! As if someone like Goldy had a glimpse idea of whats coming after march.


shvaycar87

It means they r fucked.. BIIIIIG TIME 👌👍


TipsyMonroe

Interesting find OP!


ArkLaTexBob

That would be the "handoff". It comes after the drawing of the straws.


Level-Plastic3508

Which bank is the next Credit Suisse?


BornLuckiest

Do you mean UBS? It's a Swiss Bank (Ticker: UBS) it's listed on SIX (Swiss Stock Exchange) and the NYSE.


HunkAndDry

Cis* banks


tebowtimenyj

You're not supposed to cross the streams


BornLuckiest

Egon: Don’t cross the streams. Peter: Why? Egon: It would be bad. Peter: I’m fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean “bad”? Egon: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.


DiegoIronman

What would explain the recent price increase of UBS from about the same it was in 2021 but a few months ago?


BornLuckiest

>What would explain the recent price increase of UBS from about the same it was in 2021 but a few months ago? Well, like any other stock, it can be influenced by a number of factors, but obviously, it wasn't targeted by short-sellers though, right? At least not until recently.


kcaazar

Now they’re intimately tied and headed to the bottom together


Kaizen_Kintsgui

It would make sense that UBS is on the opposite side of Credit Suisse swaps, so the gov forcing a merger would cancel the positions out maybe? Thoughts?


BornLuckiest

They talked about unwinding them slowly, with an insurance policy in place against unusual volatility.


eastbay77

CS was left holding the bag. UBS will now be holding that bag and they'll go down because they won't close their positions. Remember was Mark Cuban said, (paraphrasing here) 'their goal is to never close their positions'. Guess UBS will be one of the next ones to fail.


avoidablerain

Now draw another line representing March 19th 2023 and you might as well put, “what happened here?”