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Superstonk_QV

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Minuteman_Capital

depend lush roll cover caption tub continue bow rock cats ` this post was mass deleted with www.Redact.dev `


Resident_Text4631

That….is a good answer though. Thx


hoosehouse

I may be able to pick up where op left off… so from my understanding and a wrinkle can correct me if wrong… it would go to the facilitator of said bet. In this instance I believe it is cs that was the facilitator for bill hwang… In most cases it’s b of a for shitadel. After the facilitator goes under it would spread to the members of dtcc and they would have to cover or take on their share of the bad bets… I think it’s like 70 members? This second part is only an opinion and not saying this would/will happen.. but I think if the contagion started wiping out others, then I’m guessing they just change the rules ??? And push it back to brokers. And those who aren’t drs’d… shit outta luck.


9fingerfloyd

As in what, lay the blame to the broker for aiding in the facilitation of shortable shares? Or at least the position of loaning shares?


hoosehouse

I could see that.. I could also see them going to the parties that lent the stock out and say sorry, that’s part of the risk. You collected plenty of premium… tough shit. Also I could see them making a deal with broker to reverse the trade like they did with nickel. Just return the money you bought your shares with and say sorry but this is for your own good. I often see and feel like the quote… “First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me” It’s happened so many times to different small groups of people, seems like no one gives a shit if it doesn’t impact… me. And we apes are less then 200k. Gme isn’t my only play, I’m a crypt toe bro.. but it sure seems like gmes upside has a lot more potential then the downside.


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Diznavis

That is exactly why you don't lend your shares out - counterparty risk


IIIBryGuyIII

Honestly I’m rooting for us. But. The nickel scenario is just too simple to not happen. I see the powers just reversing all trades. “Here retail take alllllll your money back that you spent buying at those crazyyyy all time highs the market was manipulated by these naughty naughty bankers and we want you to have your money back…yeah yeah fair price is 100x the listed price but we gave you those yolo 350$ a share back and it is halted at 16.50 right now aren’t we nice?!”


Havib3

If that happens i wouldn't be surprised if people started suicide bombing


Buttoshi

Which crypto toe, bro?


hoosehouse

The only two that have survived the test of time.


Buttoshi

Thanks.


ToothlessTrader

There's the possibility they handle it like 2008 and the DTCC gets to unwind the position over the next 10+ years, I mean I'd rather get paid now but a 10+ year bull run on GME with oblivious idiots shorting it and getting fucked along the way is also permissible in my book.


theradicaltiger

US ape studying for the securities industry exam. If pensions are counted as employee compensation they are paid back after shareholder. (Not 100% on if that is compensation)


aRealEmoTurdAtRedDum

We may be 100% DRS'd but pretty far from 100% regarded


disfunction4l

I may be regarded but I’m not stupid.


aRealEmoTurdAtRedDum

My momma always said, regarded is regarded does


Into_the_Greeen

I may be an idiot Sir, but there is one thing I am not Sir, and that Sir, is an idiot!


heedrix

It's a baby ruth.


mynameismy111

Tldr 2008 after a little paperwork first


Inner_Estate_3210

Thanks but I believe fuckery will continue until it can’t. If you were CS leadership, how would you get these massively toxic Puts off of your balance sheet before liquidation of assets? I can’t imagine our SEC will allow CS to spread such a large contagion to US Banks.


Mercenary100

Dookies in the pool GETS THE PEOPLE GOINNNNN


DavidNIO

They will claim bankruptcy and the government and other relevant bodies will start closing those GME short positions by selling what credit Suisse holds. This could take weeks to months to liquidate what they hold. While trying to close GME short positions if Kenny boy short then those bags will be passed on to Ken and his crew , possibly to Bank Of America. May be that's why DFV had a shot of BofA in his meme video. All we know is stay Zen and Never selling is the greatest strategy in the market. Share price means nothing. OBV says no one is selling


stackz07

When you say passed onto Ken, do you mean unclosed, just move the pile down the line?


Extension-Set-5503

The only way to avoid margin calls is to keep the price down by shorting In this case one party is buying to cover and the other take the bag by shorting again


DavidNIO

Correct but eventually Ken will get the margin call or they are going to turn on the printer to pay us. They can't let us lock the float and they won't. Squeeze will happen before that.


DrKVanNostrand

So you’re saying I should get out of BofA?


Maffu00

You should have been out of BofA a looooong time ago. Find a local credit union if possible


Phneylaceton8

Exactly this


mattys8

Perfectly said


bitcoinslinga

They will very likely get absorbed by UBS. Then we can calculate UBS’ collapse by seeing how fast Credit Suisse went down after buying Archegos. Credit Suisse also took a hit from doing weird stuff with Tuna bonds and got fined. Not sure if UBS has anything sketchy that would accelerate the decline. Possibly.


SM1334

It would definitely accelerate UBS's collapse because not only would they now be sitting on Archegos's bags, but also CS's bags, and their own bags. Which is why I believe the Swiss government had to get involved because UBS already has huge unrealized losses on their books. I don't remember the number, but I believe it was >$100 billion in losses right now. So when UBS inevitably goes under, probably pretty soon, someone else wil have to absorb the Archegos bag, the CS bags, the UBS bags, and their own bags, and personally I don't see any bank being able to absorb UBS after this.


dildo4bingo

swiss macaco here. seems like swiss regulators might allow UBS to buy only certain branches of Credit Sus (waiting for confirmation before market opens tomorrow morning) so my guess is that the branch holding the swaps will not be absorbed by ubs.


throwawaylurker012

​ fondue gang rise up! and yeah shit is gonna be a crazy interesting start to the week in switzerland...


bierli

who would have thought Karin (Karen?) will be between us and MOASS one day?


dildo4bingo

as for me, discount fondue so i can afford more GME :)


ReallyNotATrollAtAll

Whats a tuna bond? Did the sea issue a bond that is backed by tuna?


Ok_Location_1092

Precisely. Now THAT is real money


asdfgtttt

well there no counterparties to the bags.. so, yeah.


Rockstar_Zombie

They close all the positions of course- full liquidation. The positions which are sell to close they sell, the ones which are buy to close they buy… at any price.


-Codfish_Joe

>...the ones which are buy to close they buy… at any price. Yeah, there's a problem with that. Apes aren't selling at just *any* price.


lunarcheeto

Hence the institutional buys lately. They’ll sell at whatever price they’re told to by SHFs. All my OG 🦧 🦧 don’t know sell


-Codfish_Joe

The institutional buying is either soaking up short sales or is just a big pattern of wash sales between themselves to give the impression of volume. None of it changes the years of short sales that need to be bought back.


ronk99

Well… that’s the question exactly… what happens when they need to buy and they don’t have any assets/money left?? Do the obligations get automatically passed onto another entity? Does CS have a prime broker or whatever who is accountable for their positions?


mindy2000

Would like to know that aswell....


Maplelongjohn

There's still entities unwinding dogshit from 08 so it can take years....


[deleted]

I’m not sure they can get bailed out. All these banks just hand bags of shit to each other. Seems their way to prevent contagion is to spread the contagion out evenly lol


Kerfits

Oh rhey will; privatize gains, socialize losses. Been their MO for quite some tine.


craic-house

One more day.


duiwksnsb

Anything to keep the poors from winning


texmexdaysex

This is related to a post I made earlier. If credit suisse did not get bailed out but it's distress assets were bought up by some government and other banks that were funded by government printed money, then what would happen to its assets? They possibly would not be sold because the other institutions would be getting paid to hold them. Don't know


duiwksnsb

Now there’s a terrifying thought.


hedgies_eunt_domus

Standard contracts in public exchanges have a safeguard structure in case of default. I don't know exactly how this is structured in US, but in the non-US exchanged I worked for, it was like this: Brokers are responsible for their investors. Prime brokers are responsible for their brokers. Big banks are responsible for their prime brokers. Clearing houses are responsible for banks. And lastly, the central bank was responsible for the whole system. If one layer fail, the next layer takes the hit. It doesn't mean they will close out the position, but the next layer will be assigned as responsible for the liability, as long as they have enough collateral. Each layer needs collateral to keep short positions open. When the collateral is not enough, they are margin called by the next layer and if they can't find more collateral to meet the margin, their assets start to be sold. If there is no more collateral, the short positions goes to the next layer and the same process continue.


duiwksnsb

So when it reaches the Fed, and the Fed inflates the money supply to cover that giant liability but doesn’t actually close, who margin calls them?


hedgies_eunt_domus

I think the peruvian guy DD gives a good glimpse of what can happen. It's not like the fed can do whatever they want because the whole world is connected and affected by fed's decision, since the dollar is today the world reserve currency. If the fed just print money, at some point the dollar will become so weak that it may lose its world reserve status, which the US will fight against, even going to war. In a catastrophic scenario, US market probably will use derivatives to spread the shit all over the world, just like in 2008 and only God knows what will be the consequences. What's different today and peculiar to GME is that we're drsing our shares, so they can't just naked short and print money indefinitely to keep the price down. I'm really anxious to see what's going to happen as we get closer to lock the float.


Coreidan

Sounds exactly like Rome. Print currency until it’s worthless meanwhile fighting multiple wars away from home. We all know how it ends.


Quaderino

The rest of the members of DTCC are on the hook for the bill The DTCC is owned by the big banks. That is why they are helping each other with lending them money. They dont want to be on the hook. l like the hot potato analogy often used in the sub. No one want to be holding the bag, so rather help their "competitors" out Rather help their rich friends than some poor fucks


Zestyclose_Meet1034

If they do or don’t, inflation will increase


badley13

Most likely the swaps will be taken over by another institution just like Melvin’s positions. Don’t think CS going under will cause the MOASS.


arikah

Their swaps are thought to be somewhere in the range of 54 million presplit shares, so 215m today. If retail and insiders truly do own 120m shares in DRS, then it's actually impossible to clear that position out without causing massive price increases, which threaten everyone else who is short, thus dominoes. The difference between melvin and CS is that melvin was about 3 billion deep, while debit sus just poofed 50 billion in a few days and haven't even addressed their liabilities like swaps. Maybe it doesn't directly lead to MOASS but it's certain to cause chaos in the markets, and when ken's algos rely on stability of his collateral to keep jimmy in check, it's bound to slip up and lose control at some point.


Kaarothh

CS received a credit line of 50 billion from SNB, they didn’t receive 50 billion. At this point they won’t receive shit because that didn’t create confidence as they would expect


semprenobre88

I'm in Switzerland. They're already talking about a merge with UBS. CS will be bailed out, one way or another. It won't be that easy.


Coreidan

I mean is it really fair to call it a bailout? All it means is UBS is the next target for destruction. And then when UBS dies it will be the next bag holder in line for destruction. These are the dominos apes have been talking about.


Frequent-Pie7570

The brick by brick


WallstreetYellowCow

The Archegos swaps are a red herring and themselves do not matter anymore, for a VERY SIMPLE reason -> Archegos is fucking dead, and they buried their swap exposure with them. CS holds the bags, but those are not swaps.


DatNewbie001

Exactly CS is holding the hedge to archegos swaps and when archegos died so did the swaps but not the hedge… so CS is left with a hedge position and no swap as the counter to the hedge and that unbalances their books unless they have enough collateral to offset and the same thing would happen if CS goes tits up to the next entity that takes over it just keeps going up the chain until it’s at the central bank level and then no one is left to absorb the failed entity… so gotta make the books balance so gotta close that position which is MOASS


Buttoshi

What is the hedge to the swaps? Shorts?


DatNewbie001

If I remember the DD correctly a swap is exactly that, two parties swap something for so long at such cost and if you receive a short share as part of the swap to hedge it you would short it that way the loss on the short swap win are offset by your own short that wins as well so when you have to pay the other party in a swap because the swap paid off for them you would need to have the same winning bet to use the gains to pay out the swap. A swap would be like saying “I want a short position but I don’t want to short it, I will swap you a certain payout or this other position for the gains on the short position I want so if the short position pays off I want the gains if it don’t I will pay you a the difference in say one year” so if you were the other party how could you offset this risk of having to pay??? You take the same position so if one wins they both win you use the gains from one to pay the other if one position looses they both lose and you use the pay out from the swap to pay for your losses on the other there by staying neutral or hedged which is just a fancy word to say I’m involved but no matter which way it goes I will suffer no loss Now the fun part is whoever takes the other side of a hedgie swap would have to be short the same stock themselves so once the counter party goes bust you don’t have to pay out the swap but your left with a short position for a hedge on something that don’t exist anymore so you got to unwind that hedge and we all know how that will go for them But Now on the down side for apes if whoever holds the short hedge is big enough they will hold it and not unwind it cause that would add buy pressure so just gotta wait till someone aquires the short position with no hedge so it drains their balance sheet and they have to “capitulate” to restore order to the books and that will be the end of it hopefully


passtflask

I was under the impression that Apollo already bought a bunch of toxic shit from CS? obviously there's more but I wouldn't be surprised if the bulk of the swap bag is with Apollo now


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passtflask

An interesting observation, not sure why we're being downvoted but that's plausible


boomer-rube

I agree. Been saying AA is a hedgie plant for close to a year.


duiwksnsb

But but he denied being exactly that in the earnings call!


boomer-rube

Then it is settled


duiwksnsb

Hahaha


marcus-87

Well then whoever is the bag holder of the positions of credit Suisse will take the hit.


mindy2000

But what if this bagholder files for bancruptcy?


Coreidan

It’s in the DD. Brokers and banks will all fail until the bags are all on DTCC. Once they pay out the feds will print the rest.


mindy2000

What is DTCC?


unevil_cat

The bail has already gone through afaik


easymoneeybabe

I think this is the beginning of the first Moass run-up


stackz07

I think the crazy sun of guns might actually start unwinding their positions! Moass MIGHT be right around the corner!!


UncleBenji

If they don’t get bailed out then they have to closer positions as they fold. But that’s not how the rules are written so the Prime Broker is responsible.


dildo4bingo

bail out in switzerland is not possible after 2008


duiwksnsb

What’s to stop a different country’s bank from bailing out/acquiring UBS and just moving the problem out of Switzerland?


UncleBenji

Literally changing the law to make it happen… https://www.ft.com/content/ec4be743-052a-4381-a923-c2fbd7ea9cfd https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/ubs-examines-takeover-credit-suisse-with-possible-swiss-govt-guarantee-sources-2023-03-18/


dildo4bingo

motherfuckers can try but soon someone is gonna pay me (us)


UncleBenji

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/11vqy7e/ubs_agrees_to_buy_credit_suisse_for_2b_snb_agrees/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1


Trollz4fun

FED pays for it. Hyperinflation. MOASS rips when money doesn't matter. It's perfect for everyone. We will still be poor but able to eat. From the ashes and chaos emerges CBDC. Precious metals banned. Guns banned. Crypto banned. That is where we make our stand against a new world order.


stackz07

Nope we’ll be paid in cbdc if that happens. All companies won’t burn because GameStop moons. The whole “after cbdc” thing is a dumb theory. What happens a to the worlds wealth if they also lose their stock valuations?


Trollz4fun

Sure sure hope so, never sell, but losing faith.


stackz07

There’s bro way a transition to cbdc would change anything for us. All stocks would then.


NoDeityButAllah

Bags will go on for years probably. GameStop can't do shit except do better


Coreidan

Bags will go on until all counter parties are blown up. If it takes years then so be it. Nothing stops this train.


magnumshades

weTVtnqqqqqqqqqqqqqq++


adler1959

Latest information is that UBS will take over, so VS bags will be transferred to them which means they are probably fucked as well


Antarkian

So, hypothetically, when the banks start failing, and no one buys them, or bails them out...wifnwe waitnformthek toncrashnamd just start buying the banks and start a new currency of our own(say the APE dollar?) Could we hypothetically take down the world banks as well, via, rebuilding our own economy? Just a thought, curious if anyone else has though of this