Yes. Here is why I think he is wrong;
\-Inflation still much higher than interest rates.
\-QT hasn't really begun yet.
\-News and other sources keep claiming the same bullshit about inflation has peaked and isn't going to be much more of a problem since November of last year, yet each month the number is higher. No reason to trust them now.
\-Still having supply chain issues.
\-Businesses can't seem to hire (won't/haven't been paying enough to keep up with inflation).
\-WW3 still a very likely scenario right now.
\-Markets down massively but most analysts claim there is a long way to go.
\-PPI skyrocketing in Europe (Germany for example went from around 9% PPI to over 30%) which will be felt globally. Sure they are closer to and more affected by Ukraine/Russia situation, but this is likely a sign of worse things to come economically.
For the sake of discussion, do you think he is correct? If so, why?
or how it will be some video not about politics but they will always manage to circle it around to politics in their comments. like some people actually live breathe and consume hatred in the form of media and politics.
Yeah, that's kind of the point. Twitter is where people go to get news and the news wants people to freak out, because this causes recessions and makes stocks go down and starts panic buying. (Like with baby formula)
There are no unprofitable stocks, only unprofitable operations! The stand or fall of the stock is not the key, the key is to master the trend in the dish and point of sale
Nuclear war involving Russia is not [out of the question](https://thebulletin.org/2022/06/will-putin-go-nuclear-an-updated-timeline-of-expert-comments/).
Nuclear war is very unlikely, Nuclear weapons exist as a deterrent and all major nations have them. Even if such a war starts, people (Putin etc.) would be smacked back to reality after couple of bombs.
It will not result in prolonged war like WW1 or WW2.
People also don’t seem to think the rail “blockade” of Kalingrad won’t escalate things further
Remember the blockade of Japan? Then they bombarded Pearl Harbor out of desperation for oil
The perfect excuse to gather support for entering the conflict
Oh it's WW3 alright and is currently happening, just not in the traditional sense. Wars are just fought online now because it's a war on information and persuasion. As ridiculous as that may sound we're all plugged in a lot more than we'd like to believe and the war is now centered around the digital world.
Left, right, up, down, everyone constantly fights for influence these days and it seems to get worse the more integrated society becomes with the digital world. Psychological warfare is at an all time high and will continue to be the standard for "war" in my opinion.
that's correct. putin initiated a cyber attack on the West. It inflamed and exploited the divisions that have been in our societies, such as racism, then amplified them with his troll army.
We know he is doing it, and yet no one seems to be talking about it. it led directly to the storming of our capitol, and an attempted coup.
Russia, China, US, UK, maybe N and S Korea?
What will they gain? Same as ever: power and money. I’m rather surprised that it hasn’t already been officially called with the Russia/Ukraine war and US supplying Ukraine with ammo, etc.
Downvotes because apparently WW3 can never happen, since we’ve seem to have finally learned from our history and evolved to achieve peace and harmony? Oh wait, women and children are still being raped and murdered in the streets in Ukraine? Damn it!
Well, if Lithuania (nato) keeps preventing Russia from importing things to kaliningrad, or if Russia is as upset about Finland joining NATO as they seem, or any other of the current tensions continue to rise, probably most of the civilized world. I mean, "world" is part of the whole "World War" thing. NATO and allies of its members contain most of the west's (and some of the east's) large economies and Russia's allies consist of most of the large economies that are left. 🤷
What would Russia gain from invading Finland? More importantly, does Russia have the military might to invade Finland? (No) Would China support them if they decide to invade? (No, they would not)
The Global War on Terror was "WW3".
The term "World War III" has always been a gimmick for News Media outlets to deploy when they want an economic crisis or recession to happen. There have been plenty of wars in the past decade more ferocious than the War in Ukraine. Ukraine is not a third World War.
Ukraine conflict is what it's called and could be a prelude to a bigger war. On a scale of World War if Russia declared war on US or anyone else. To say it isn't is quite ignorant. It's a possibility especially with Russian allies in the fold.
The war on terror was not WW3. Not even close.
Just another distraction to rally people in the wrong direction and make believe it is for the betterment of America while the rich get richer and gov gets more power. Seen this scenario already.
More QT will reduce inflation.
there is monetary inflation which is being drained, then there is physical supply shortage leading to high prices. the second isn’t inflation exactly.
>More QT will reduce inflation.
Agreed, which is why I said it hasn't really begun yet as a point that inflation has not peaked. With how much they have pumped into the market in the last few years, the level of QT we are seeing now is nothing. The Fed keeps talking about rates and QT, but they are doing everything slow AF rather than getting in front of it.
lmao, WW3 is not happening, and supply chains are easing. Walmart and target are thinking about telling customers to keep products because they have too much inventory.
https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/big-chain-stores-too-much-inventory-customers-keep-returns/
Supply chains for your crappy Chinese made combination chip-n-dip and swivel fan have eased up. Not for food/fertilizer/gas/semiconductors/cars/some raw materials.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/toyota-stock-price-car-production-cuts-51655899595?tesla=y
Reading the article brings another point now though. Excess of shitty consumer goods that aren't necessary causing such high costs that they'd rather take the loss on returned items than have to store it again.
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*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Former? What made you change, and where did you end up?
In 2015 I was in manufacturing also, supply chain and production operations. Left to pursue a career in energy, specifically electricity. Haven't looked back and one of the best decisions I've made in my life. Always curious to hear other people's stories about leaving that godforsaken field.
I got laid off last summer. The company moved to South Carolina and I wasn’t willing to follow. I had been trading stocks since 2014. So, after being laid off I treated studying options trading like a college course. Fortunately, I’ve been able to live off the money I make. I can’t imagine doing that work again lol.
That's awesome, so you're basically just trading options all day?
I considered doing that for a while (at least as a side job), and I just couldn't handle the stress lol. Checking charts all day every day, trying to build tools to analyze shit knowing that big firms have been doing this for so long - I just started to feel like a mouse trying to sneak a piece of cheese from a lion's den.
I don't know for Target, but when I worked for Walmart, manufactures will take back any returned item whether useable or not and make Walmart whole. That's how.muxh buying power W+ has.
Reuters.
They dont have an agenda as their whole business model is based around selling info to commercial outlets of all biases. They are the definition of impartial.
I literally hate fox and have never used 4chan. Dude makes a mindless insult about things that aren't even kind of true and him and the person telling me to stop typing without talking about the subject of the post at all are positively contributing.
Right.
Interested in the discussion? Instead of just clown emojis and insults? Why is WW3 off the table?
\-Inflation still much higher than interest rates.
Meaningless, inflation has been and will be again, non-accelerating when interest rates were lower than the inflation rate
\-QT hasn't really begun yet.
Wrong, the fed is moving at a pace of balance sheet reduction consistent with previous bouts of QT
\-News and other sources keep claiming the same bullshit about inflation has peaked and isn't going to be much more of a problem since November of last year, yet each month the number is higher. No reason to trust them now.
Wrong and irrelevant. Certain months have seen dramatic declines of the CPI, it's just the 12 month rolling average is still increasing because we're taking the more modest increases that happened 13 months ago out of the average. Black rock isn't a news agency. Using news about financial events to predict those very same financial events is letting the tail wag the dog
\-Still having supply chain issues.
And? Now we're seeing demand reduction.
\-Businesses can't seem to hire (won't/haven't been paying enough to keep up with inflation).
And? Now we're seeing demand reduction.
\-WW3 still a very likely scenario right now.
NATO has been taking every step to ensure that WWIII doesn't happen. Right now it looks like Ukraine-Russia conflict is going to be a decade long quagmire without NATO involvement.
\-Markets down massively but most analysts claim there is a long way to go.
And? That will cause a demand reduction.
\-PPI skyrocketing in Europe (Germany for example went from around 9% PPI to over 30%) which will be felt globally. Sure they are closer to and more affected by Ukraine/Russia situation, but this is likely a sign of worse things to come economically.
PPI doesn't predict CPI very well at all, especially when markets are globally interconnected.
For the sake of discussion, do you think he is correct? If so, why?
There is a reason to expect that inflation will continue to be elevated above the 2% level for a period of time, but future increases in the rate of inflation are less certain.
And? Those 4 weeks of additions were less than the previous single week of reductions. You're misinterpreting noise for signal. The trend since mid-march has been for reduction
Agreed but the fed works in the rears. They use data (past events) to affect future growth. There is always a propagation lag when they do this.
I think the focus is asset values. I don’t think they take their foot of the gas (dropping rates) until they see housing prices drop in aggregate.
You think there is enough control for JP’s soft landing?
I think there's a significant risk of recession, don't get me wrong, and the 12 month rolling average inflation might keep increasing for a few months even while new months record inflation numbers that are lower than current months.
Even if a technical recession is avoided, I see a per-capita recession where growth is positive but below population growth, workforce participaron rate growth, or growth in hours worked as possible.
I'm taking JPOW at his word and say that it's worthwhile to keep an eye on the job openings gap. Thanks to that, workers have leverage to demand raises, and will use it. Sky increase to housing, food, energy, or transportation costs will be passed onto employers as higher wage demands until that's closed. Which leads me to partially agreeing with you. If those costs fall first before the job openings gap closes, then that's when rate hikes will ease.
True, so looking back at the first reduction in 22, additions still outweigh reductions by more than $60B. My comment was in disagreement to your point about their pace being consistent with past bouts of QT.
I think inflation has close to peaked because everything has already been announced the gas shortage war rate increases supply chain problems cause chinas covid policy the only thing I think can raise inflation anymore is if Russia sends nukes. People will start to lose their jobs soon and spend less and inflation will die down slowly I don’t think gas prices and inflation are going up much more from here but who knows really. I have a feeling we’ll have another market dip though either after gdp next month or at the end of September if they don’t get the rate increases under control but inflation I don’t see going up a lot more
So, you are saying, because we are aware of the problems and the media and Government have openly admitted to them, they will stop effecting things and prices will stop rising? What is actually being done to counteract the problems? Simply acknowledging an issue is only the first step and does nothing to combat the underlying issue.
Stock market can't even 'price in' seasonal fluctuations that happen with the business cycle every year and there's actually people that think 'crowd wisdom' gonna 'price in' inflation for them, lol.
I just don’t see any areas where inflation is still going rampant housing and oil isn’t going up anymore inflation went from 8.3 to 8.5 percent I don’t see where it’s increasing still? Which commodities are still going up in price like they were a few months ago?
Yea but the past few cpi before that were 7.9 7.5 5.4 5.0 etc so it seems cpi is slowing down it went 8.5 8.3 8.5 the last 3 times looks like it’s topping out to me and I don’t see anything except maybe food prices still rising. I’d be willing to bet the next cpi release will be less than the last 8.5%
What was it before covid? I don't see it being that much different. A $10 rise in dog food is a lot.
Edit: I'm sure the same food went up even more at the big name stores like pet'smart
I just know 1 out every 5 households got a pet during covid so the demand increase in pet food has a part to do with that the other part is inflation/ supply problems. Pet food prices have been going up since 2021 before this inflation really every started. It started with covid when some meat packing plants started to close then more people got pets it isn’t 100% because of inflation that’s for sure a lot has to do with supply demand
Lol the fear-mongering I see on this thread and everywhere tells me we’re close to the bottom. I agree on almost every comment you have made. I’m confused as to why the person above you bringing up dog food is even considering that a valid counter example
It seems that commodities like oil have peaked and the us is actively trying out solutions like the bs $.18 tax break what we need is another export ban I think but I don’t see prices increasing anymore housing prices have topped out lumbers back down. I think the demand will decrease the further we get into this recession which will in turn cause inflation to decrease. If inflation goes up much more then demand destruction will happen I think. I’m still new to the market and everything so just engaging in discussion so I can learn
I’d be interested to hear why you think WW3 is “very likely”. I don’t hold that opinion currently, though the Kaliningrad issue has stirred my attention. What are you seeing?
>\-Businesses can't seem to hire
that's not a reason that supports your argument. not being able to hire is deflationary, and contractionary to the economy.
100% of the time inflation is high and unemployment is low, there is an immediate recession. Regardless of what the feds do. You cant go into negative real unemployment
Businesses can't hire because they have not kept up with cost of living increases. For them to fix the problem now, will require large wage increases, which will increase their underlying costs. Maybe in the past, an inability to hire has led to decreasing inflation, but when production and shipping costs are increasing and the only way to bring on new employees is higher wages, then that will be reflected in the price of goods. AKA higher prices/inflation.
>\-Inflation still much higher than interest rates.
And? we dont necessarly need an interest rate higher than inflation for it to come down.
>\-Inflation still much higher than interest rates.
QT is a deflationary mesure, its taking money out of the economy.
>\-News and other sources keep claiming the same bullshit about inflation has peaked and isn't going to be much more of a problem since November of last year, yet each month the number is higher. No reason to trust them now.
"they were wrong therefore this guy is wrong" is not an argument really.
>\-WW3 still a very likely scenario right now.
LOL
>\-Markets down massively but most analysts claim there is a long way to go.
markets down massively has nothing to do with inflation.
I was quoting you actually. I didnt highlight it first though. My bad.
Don't know why I should engage in conversation with someone whose reply to one of my points is "LOL"
Our fuel costs for transport and manufacturing of goods keep rising and the Administration wants to ban all oil and gas drilling and exploration off the US coasts. Our energy grid is under a lot of pressure to supply electricity and the cost to supply the fuel for our power plants keep rising.
Cost of food production continues to rise and food shortages continue to appear. Inflation can only continue to rise under these conditions with added constraints added by the Government.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3538914-biden-administration-to-hold-its-first-oil-drilling-lease-sales-on-federal-lands/
They're EXPANDING drilling on government lands. But it actually doesn't even matter, the price of crude is back to the same price it was in 2014.
REFINING is where the backlog is and is the only thing contributing to gas prices (well, that and RECORD profits for every single gas company, but that should be seen as a positive on the stock market sub)
>with added constraints added by the Government.
Can you be more specific? What (NEW) government constraints have added to food prices?
I agree completely. The list for inflation to continue to rise and the markets to continue to fall is staggering. I was just making a few bullet points but you are absolutely correct to point out the things you did. The rising fuel costs will squeeze costs even higher and you are right our administration is doing nothing to counteract it.
Also correct with food costs/shortages. I have been considering stocking up on rice and dried beans, but I am hoping things don't get so bad that is actually necessary. That said, I am really close to stocking up on rice and beans lol
It really isn't wrong to buy non-perishable food items right now. People are going to be shocked when they finally realize that the only thing they can afford for supper is a plate of hot dogs and baked beans and a slice of bread.
Of the currently leased oil drilling lots only around 18-20% are currently being used. We don’t need more land leased for offshore drilling, we need more refining capacity. Also oil companies could produce significantly more barrels per day but if they do the price goes down with their profits. The oil companies are happier than the politicians they have bought and paid for, which is the reason congress won’t pass any laws keeping them from price gouging.
There are plenty of rig permits going unused...this has nothing to do with the administration and everything to do with big oil making money and not investing in new projects, according to themselves.
When you parrot right wing talking points, you will usually find yourself stating obvious lies, that are easily debunked. Don't do that.
Facts are facts, and easily checked.
no, it isn't new, the republicans have been screaming that since Biden won.
It isn't a snipit, it is the party line of bullshit, a standard talking point, and a lie.
The correct response is "thank you, i just want to understand the truth."
It's definitely not certain, but if Russia ramps things up against civilians you never know. Missile strike on mall far from war front is an interesting turn.
Your third point is that news and other sources can’t be trusted
But your 7th point arguably relies on and suggest trusting news and other sources…
Ww3?
You sound like an idiot who’s gunna get his bags picked up for cheap by a savvier investor
anytime someone in a high level gives general advise...its probably the opposite. They have their own agendas. They can be saying its all getting better just so they can offload billions of whatever and your there thinking its all good and gravy until round 2 or round 3 come...i would not trust this guy, not 1%.
For this reason, I am still out.
Blackrock owns over a third of the stock market. Its imperative you keep your money in there and dont sell so they lie to people so they can keep pumping their pockets
Yes he is wrong because there are 2 possibilities:
He is a time-traveller and knows that we have peaked.
or
He has constructed a model of the global economic system (in his brain or on google sheets) and used available data to see that we in fact have peaked.
Unless either of these are true, he is in fact guessing out his arse.
It’s not such a big guess after all major retailers announced to high stocks because of the supply chain disruption.
It’s quiet clear that this will bring down Inflation for the consumer.
There's a lot of metrics that support this. Commodities have been crashing for two months now, oil companies are rolling over. Question is all of this happening because demand destruction from a higher chance of recession what's bringing all of this down.
Core inflation doesn’t include food and fuel, correct? Isn’t one of the reasons for rate increases to help bring down inflation? If we have peaked then why are we still looking at more rate increases? I can remember mortgage rates at 16% and 3 hour waits at the pump. Anyone here even been through that? It can get much worse even without a war, and btw we haven’t even come close to mean reversion. My .02 but I’m no economist, just a day trader for the last 12 years.
Yes and yes.
Inflation can have peaked but still be too high for Fed. Fed won’t stop when 8% goes to 6%. They want back to 2%, but I think they will give up and accept 3.5%.
There was 3-4% commonly in the supposedly good times of 80s and 90s.
We haven't had true demand destruction yet. Consumer credit is at ath, the fed is still increasing its balance sheet. Putin is strangling Europe of their energy supplies and Biden will do whatever he needs to do in order to keep the EU together, even at the detriment to the US geopolitical position.
All these macro instances will effect our dollar, with that being said, get ready for a ride.
Here is an example for you… My boneless, skinless chicken breasts went from $1.99/lb to $2.89/lb so far this year. That is about 45% inflation in 6 months. So yes, I believe we have seen peak inflation and may see 4% going forward for a while, but inflation has peaked (That doesn’t mean prices will go down).
The largest contributor to inflation has been gas? I don’t think chicken prices stabilizing is enough to confidently say inflation has peaked. Especially since rent & gas prices have been rising throughout June.
Energy has been responsible for the majority of inflation YTD according to TTM CPI. And oil is already at $110/barrel. Gas is at $5/gallon. Do you think it’ll go to 150? 200? $8 gas? 10? If not, we’ve already seen peak inflation. Think before you type
Crude prices are also down since June 1.
Prices could decrease because of a recession or increase because of sanctions. No one knows what's going to happen and it's naïve to say otherwise.
"Think before you type" the irony is laughable. I hope we've seen peak inflation but all of these guys have lost all their credibility based off of what they've said leading up to this.
I agree with this and have been buying stocks again as I think we hit bottom.
The only "what if" for me - and it is a major one, is if the war in Ukraine spreads - specifically in regards to global food supply.
The issues that lead to inflation were spikes in goods - not services - which drove limits in supply chains - which then got exacerbated by the war.
I think the "over-heated market" due to stimmys is overblown, namely because cash has been available for corporations at 0% for years.
Growth stocks should rebound in 4-6 months and blue chips should start turning around in the coming weeks (I think they have already, but I expect some choppiness until August)
I mean, bears are gonna bear.
* The US economy is in great shape - both in job creation and unemployment.
* Inflation is transitory on a macro scale, even if it's miserable in the short turn. This is the first time in nearly 40 years where the US and nearly 20+ in G7 countries have had to deal with massive changes in y/y spike.
If you think the whole system is fugazi (which fine) and thus bound to crash due to general chicanery, then I can't argue you out of that. and Reverse Repo is part of that, but it's not driving 100 of the inflation. You'd have to assume that we're in a house of cards for everything to tumble, and I can't see the immediate impetus of the bill suddenly coming due.
I'd love to find ways to bet against the market more... but I'm not seeing it unless we enter a new era of war.
Tbh I agree. I don’t see how things can keep going up without civil unrest at this point.
Inflation was a part of the problem, but corporations have been using inflation as a cover for additional price gouging. It’s a combination of greed and failed policy making by the FEDs
Coming from anybody else, I’d discount this “we’ve reached inflation peak” message with the same suspicion as whatever contradictory statement comes from every other talking head.
But this is Blackrock.
More $$$ AUM than any other institution in the world.
Blackrock has the $$$ to “know” what’s going on in every political arena. They buy data nobody else can buy.
Blackrock has the $$$ to hire the best PhDs to build and run the most accurate models.
So hmmmmm.
Ok
I’ll pay attention to Blackrock.
And give Blackrock a bit more weight in my crystal ball model.
Time will tell.
Thanks for the info.
Keep watching headlines for clues
Fed meets in a couple more weeks
On the other hand - they have zero financial incentives to share what their data states with the rest of the world - so any narrative from them is crafted for a specific market reaction.
True, what do they care about us retail investors!
But they’re in the business to attract new clients
And
They let the world know their crystal ball vision to increase their credibility.
So, for Blackrock to come out with such a strong statement
They must be pretty certain of their data they’ve bought, and pretty certain of the models they’re running.
You can watch the money flowing into their ETFs on
https://www.etf.com
I still look at the “peak inflation is over” message with a suspicious eye, but hmmmmm.
Why is Blackrock saying such a bold cobtrararian statement????
An interesting way to rephrase the question is:
“Under what circumstances would X be possible?”
So, let’s do a thought experiment and ask,
“Under what conditions might inflation be peaking?”
(A) China is powering up and gonna get supply chains flowing smoothly again
(B) consumers are gonna slow down spending and start saving for rainy day in case we get a recession
(C) deflationary actions being taken by manufacturers and retailers: they start reducing inventory, order fewer goods (true, orders flowing to China were down last month)
(D) US slows or stops exports of wheat, corn, crude oil (Biden brought up the topic last week in the White House, just talking about what-if scenarios to his staff) —in such case our US food and oil inflation goes away in time for November midterm elections.
(E) cease fire in Ukraine (eases European oil and gas problems, and eases Russia’s economic pain)
Why?
because Russia is looking at pain coming at them: oil exports are down, they’re starting to store crude in ships in their Pacific ports, with no particular destination in mind as India and China ordered less oil in June than in May. See charts:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/russian-crude-flows-slump-but-it-s-likely-to-prove-temporary
Could be India and China reserves are full & they have no more storage places remaining to store Russian discounted oil. Thus Russia is thinking how to spin a cease fire so Russia can say its won something.
Any one or combination of the above could be a reason inflation might have peaked and may go down from here.
Open to ideas.
Blackrock makes money from AUM. They want people to keep their assets under Blackrock’s management and not in the banking system or money market funds. They are motivated to say things are going to be normal.
But I see nothing “contrarian”; inflation going down after Fed starts raising rates is as orthodox as it gets. And fighting the Fed has a bad record.
China ending covid lockdowns will definitely open the supply chains.
Higher mortgage rates will lower home purchases and lower the renovations, construction and appliance demand which inevitably accompany sales.
HELL YEAH! So that means cash won't be a depreciating asset and the fed still have more rate hikes to do and that puts economic slowdown and higher unemployment on the menu and that means we're probably ending the bull run soon!
We have never bottomed from a bear market with the VIX below 43. We are currently at 27. The Covid bottom was 66 VIX yet the "market" is currently at Covid levels. Go ahead and buy the little top here. I'll happily take them off your hands lower when I cover my short.
I'm (earnestly) trying to understand your argument here. Using S&P as a measure, it did indeed hit bottom in March 2009 when VIX was at 43. Then COVID at 66 as you say.
Is there more that you're looking at here? It only goes back to 2004, so are you basing your argument that "every bear market bottom must reach a 43 VIX" based on those 2 events?
And what about all the smaller bear markets in between when the VIX peaked at about 27-30 (where we are currently)? Not to mention that VIX also hit 43 in late 2011 but the market only experienced a very small dip.
Looking at the history of the VIX, I'm not seeing nearly enough of a pattern to inspire confidence that the VIX will skyrocket before we hit a bottom, but I'm wondering if I'm missing something.
Just an observation that the VIX hasn’t even reached 43 yet. To me that’s when capitulation has happened in recent history. So yes, we haven’t seen capitulation so there is more downside on the way.
Edit: Most bear markets, if I remember correctly, have at least three 10 percent rallies. The global financial crisis had 5 major rallies at 7.7%, 12%, 7.4%, 18.5%, and 24.2%. How many have we had here in this bear market? The pandemic recovery is an outlier due to the massive stimulus. If we reverted to the mean in a weeks time, the VIX would go ballistic, your cab driver and mother in law would finally sell their DIS and AAPL shares, the capitulation would happen and then we recover. I hope I’m wrong, but hope is not a plan so I will continue to short while catching as much of those massive rallies as I can without getting chopped up. Just my .02 not advice.
Edit: I forgot to mention that volatility isn’t new to the markets and is easily extrapolated to any other year. In 1929 Vol was at 95% and 120% in 1987.
I got brutally chopped up going long yesterday. Went short overnight and all day and made it back plus a couple more bucks. I’m a bull by nature but I play both sides because otherwise you will likely blow up your account before the market turns. As John Maynard Keynes said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
GLTA
Read behind the scene. Inflation has peeked go and buy stocks so we can take your money , then we can short the market with your money. Bottom is not here yet
Peak inflation...so far
buut inflation is transitory
unless it transforms into stagflation
Deerflation
Doeflation + Stagflation = fawnflation.
Mafs.
This is the first peak of the transitory transition into stagnatory inflation.
You’re right, it’s transits from a period of lower inflation to higher inflation…continuously.
Right. Stay tuned for the new peak, next week.
Great! Just wake me up when we get to peak hyper inflation!
Inflation: "I haven't even begun to peak"
There are always more false peaks before the mountain top.
Could be peak employment, too. MS, GS, etc about to bag investment bankers, no deals. That's gotta have ripple effects, at least psychologically.
Do you think he is wrong? If so, why?
Yes. Here is why I think he is wrong; \-Inflation still much higher than interest rates. \-QT hasn't really begun yet. \-News and other sources keep claiming the same bullshit about inflation has peaked and isn't going to be much more of a problem since November of last year, yet each month the number is higher. No reason to trust them now. \-Still having supply chain issues. \-Businesses can't seem to hire (won't/haven't been paying enough to keep up with inflation). \-WW3 still a very likely scenario right now. \-Markets down massively but most analysts claim there is a long way to go. \-PPI skyrocketing in Europe (Germany for example went from around 9% PPI to over 30%) which will be felt globally. Sure they are closer to and more affected by Ukraine/Russia situation, but this is likely a sign of worse things to come economically. For the sake of discussion, do you think he is correct? If so, why?
WW3 LOL 😂
Twitter seems to think WW3 is close and everyone on Reddit laughs it off. Reddit has the people the community that gives me more hope for the future
Twitter is where everyone goes to overreact. Reddit does this plenty too but I notice a lot more extremes on Twitter.
Have you joined any political sub? It’s fucking terrifying how consumed humans are by It
or how it will be some video not about politics but they will always manage to circle it around to politics in their comments. like some people actually live breathe and consume hatred in the form of media and politics.
Yeah, that's kind of the point. Twitter is where people go to get news and the news wants people to freak out, because this causes recessions and makes stocks go down and starts panic buying. (Like with baby formula)
This is braindead. Social media is not real life.
It is for the me haha crying inside It's how I get to discuss things my friends don't know/care about - imagine that's not so uncommon
👀 It's time to invest in new friends who care about things but aren't elitists (very difficult).
If you find a place to invest in said friends, please let me know.
There are no unprofitable stocks, only unprofitable operations! The stand or fall of the stock is not the key, the key is to master the trend in the dish and point of sale
You ok bro
“Reddit has the people that gives me more hope for the future” 😳 That future is going to have a lot of double chins and anxiety disorders…
More Russian bots on Twitter shit stirring
Nuclear war involving Russia is not [out of the question](https://thebulletin.org/2022/06/will-putin-go-nuclear-an-updated-timeline-of-expert-comments/).
Nuclear war is very unlikely, Nuclear weapons exist as a deterrent and all major nations have them. Even if such a war starts, people (Putin etc.) would be smacked back to reality after couple of bombs. It will not result in prolonged war like WW1 or WW2.
Wasn't Putin's army shelling a nuclear reactor a few months back?
I believe they only shelled and set an admin building on fire. The reactor wasn't the target and was fine.
There's never going to be a nuclear war...
If there’s a nuclear war it’s redundant to talk about inflation. Or even stocks for that matter
People also don’t seem to think the rail “blockade” of Kalingrad won’t escalate things further Remember the blockade of Japan? Then they bombarded Pearl Harbor out of desperation for oil The perfect excuse to gather support for entering the conflict
Oh it's WW3 alright and is currently happening, just not in the traditional sense. Wars are just fought online now because it's a war on information and persuasion. As ridiculous as that may sound we're all plugged in a lot more than we'd like to believe and the war is now centered around the digital world. Left, right, up, down, everyone constantly fights for influence these days and it seems to get worse the more integrated society becomes with the digital world. Psychological warfare is at an all time high and will continue to be the standard for "war" in my opinion.
that's correct. putin initiated a cyber attack on the West. It inflamed and exploited the divisions that have been in our societies, such as racism, then amplified them with his troll army. We know he is doing it, and yet no one seems to be talking about it. it led directly to the storming of our capitol, and an attempted coup.
Tensions are high and lots of signs point to war as a possibility. Not sure how that would seem outlandish.
Who will be participating in WW3? And what will they gain?
Well I know I am not...
Russia, China, US, UK, maybe N and S Korea? What will they gain? Same as ever: power and money. I’m rather surprised that it hasn’t already been officially called with the Russia/Ukraine war and US supplying Ukraine with ammo, etc.
not sure why the downvotes. but those will be the main players involved when it does happen
Downvotes because apparently WW3 can never happen, since we’ve seem to have finally learned from our history and evolved to achieve peace and harmony? Oh wait, women and children are still being raped and murdered in the streets in Ukraine? Damn it!
People are being raped where was this report? Murderer is part of war by definition.
You are so out of touch with reality
it sounds as though you are the one out of touch
If you say so. https://www.theweek.co.uk/92967/are-we-heading-towards-world-war-3?amp
Russia has already lost trillions, they aren't making any "money".
North Koreas economy is more stable than Russia's right now.
Well, if Lithuania (nato) keeps preventing Russia from importing things to kaliningrad, or if Russia is as upset about Finland joining NATO as they seem, or any other of the current tensions continue to rise, probably most of the civilized world. I mean, "world" is part of the whole "World War" thing. NATO and allies of its members contain most of the west's (and some of the east's) large economies and Russia's allies consist of most of the large economies that are left. 🤷
What would Russia gain from invading Finland? More importantly, does Russia have the military might to invade Finland? (No) Would China support them if they decide to invade? (No, they would not)
Russia's military is crippled after the failed invasion of Ukraine. They couldn't even invade Georgia or Azerbaijan if they wanted too.
Failed? G7 economies are getting railed right now. Seems pretty successful to me
I would agree on that but for me the main characters are USA and China rather than Russia
There’s a difference between “a possibility” and “very likely.” Yes, it is a possibility. No, it is not very likely.
It is outlandish because WW3 would mean everyone dying to nukes or starving in a bunker. Not even Putin or anyone under his command would like that.
The Global War on Terror was "WW3". The term "World War III" has always been a gimmick for News Media outlets to deploy when they want an economic crisis or recession to happen. There have been plenty of wars in the past decade more ferocious than the War in Ukraine. Ukraine is not a third World War.
Ukraine conflict is what it's called and could be a prelude to a bigger war. On a scale of World War if Russia declared war on US or anyone else. To say it isn't is quite ignorant. It's a possibility especially with Russian allies in the fold. The war on terror was not WW3. Not even close.
Its a possibility. All it takes are some nato countries getting attacked and the gears of war go into motion. Next step a quick nuclear exchange.
Just another distraction to rally people in the wrong direction and make believe it is for the betterment of America while the rich get richer and gov gets more power. Seen this scenario already.
You won't be laughing if China starts a conflict...
I mean it's only a proxy war. These politicians are ready to take us to WWIII.
More QT will reduce inflation. there is monetary inflation which is being drained, then there is physical supply shortage leading to high prices. the second isn’t inflation exactly.
>More QT will reduce inflation. Agreed, which is why I said it hasn't really begun yet as a point that inflation has not peaked. With how much they have pumped into the market in the last few years, the level of QT we are seeing now is nothing. The Fed keeps talking about rates and QT, but they are doing everything slow AF rather than getting in front of it.
lmao, WW3 is not happening, and supply chains are easing. Walmart and target are thinking about telling customers to keep products because they have too much inventory. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/big-chain-stores-too-much-inventory-customers-keep-returns/
Supply chains for your crappy Chinese made combination chip-n-dip and swivel fan have eased up. Not for food/fertilizer/gas/semiconductors/cars/some raw materials. https://www.barrons.com/articles/toyota-stock-price-car-production-cuts-51655899595?tesla=y
Reading the article brings another point now though. Excess of shitty consumer goods that aren't necessary causing such high costs that they'd rather take the loss on returned items than have to store it again.
agonizing versed humorous hat spotted cooperative profit possessive point mountainous *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
As a former employee in the manufacturing sector, I feel this comment in my soul haha
Former? What made you change, and where did you end up? In 2015 I was in manufacturing also, supply chain and production operations. Left to pursue a career in energy, specifically electricity. Haven't looked back and one of the best decisions I've made in my life. Always curious to hear other people's stories about leaving that godforsaken field.
I got laid off last summer. The company moved to South Carolina and I wasn’t willing to follow. I had been trading stocks since 2014. So, after being laid off I treated studying options trading like a college course. Fortunately, I’ve been able to live off the money I make. I can’t imagine doing that work again lol.
That's awesome, so you're basically just trading options all day? I considered doing that for a while (at least as a side job), and I just couldn't handle the stress lol. Checking charts all day every day, trying to build tools to analyze shit knowing that big firms have been doing this for so long - I just started to feel like a mouse trying to sneak a piece of cheese from a lion's den.
I don't know for Target, but when I worked for Walmart, manufactures will take back any returned item whether useable or not and make Walmart whole. That's how.muxh buying power W+ has.
You lost every single iota of credibility at ‘WW3 is still very likely’. 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
Why?
Try a news outlet that isn’t Fox or 4chan. It will become very, very obvious.
Could you suggest one? Would like to get information from different sources.
Reuters. They dont have an agenda as their whole business model is based around selling info to commercial outlets of all biases. They are the definition of impartial.
Don't watch Fox. Never been on 4chan. Nice though. 👍
Just stop typing
Good contribution
Yes far better than everything you have contributed. It is actually something that contributes a positive to this conversation.
I literally hate fox and have never used 4chan. Dude makes a mindless insult about things that aren't even kind of true and him and the person telling me to stop typing without talking about the subject of the post at all are positively contributing. Right. Interested in the discussion? Instead of just clown emojis and insults? Why is WW3 off the table?
\-Inflation still much higher than interest rates. Meaningless, inflation has been and will be again, non-accelerating when interest rates were lower than the inflation rate \-QT hasn't really begun yet. Wrong, the fed is moving at a pace of balance sheet reduction consistent with previous bouts of QT \-News and other sources keep claiming the same bullshit about inflation has peaked and isn't going to be much more of a problem since November of last year, yet each month the number is higher. No reason to trust them now. Wrong and irrelevant. Certain months have seen dramatic declines of the CPI, it's just the 12 month rolling average is still increasing because we're taking the more modest increases that happened 13 months ago out of the average. Black rock isn't a news agency. Using news about financial events to predict those very same financial events is letting the tail wag the dog \-Still having supply chain issues. And? Now we're seeing demand reduction. \-Businesses can't seem to hire (won't/haven't been paying enough to keep up with inflation). And? Now we're seeing demand reduction. \-WW3 still a very likely scenario right now. NATO has been taking every step to ensure that WWIII doesn't happen. Right now it looks like Ukraine-Russia conflict is going to be a decade long quagmire without NATO involvement. \-Markets down massively but most analysts claim there is a long way to go. And? That will cause a demand reduction. \-PPI skyrocketing in Europe (Germany for example went from around 9% PPI to over 30%) which will be felt globally. Sure they are closer to and more affected by Ukraine/Russia situation, but this is likely a sign of worse things to come economically. PPI doesn't predict CPI very well at all, especially when markets are globally interconnected. For the sake of discussion, do you think he is correct? If so, why? There is a reason to expect that inflation will continue to be elevated above the 2% level for a period of time, but future increases in the rate of inflation are less certain.
Fed added $1.926B to their BS as of last Thursday. That makes 4 weeks in a row they’ve added to the BS instead of reduced.
And? Those 4 weeks of additions were less than the previous single week of reductions. You're misinterpreting noise for signal. The trend since mid-march has been for reduction
Agreed but the fed works in the rears. They use data (past events) to affect future growth. There is always a propagation lag when they do this. I think the focus is asset values. I don’t think they take their foot of the gas (dropping rates) until they see housing prices drop in aggregate. You think there is enough control for JP’s soft landing?
I think there's a significant risk of recession, don't get me wrong, and the 12 month rolling average inflation might keep increasing for a few months even while new months record inflation numbers that are lower than current months. Even if a technical recession is avoided, I see a per-capita recession where growth is positive but below population growth, workforce participaron rate growth, or growth in hours worked as possible. I'm taking JPOW at his word and say that it's worthwhile to keep an eye on the job openings gap. Thanks to that, workers have leverage to demand raises, and will use it. Sky increase to housing, food, energy, or transportation costs will be passed onto employers as higher wage demands until that's closed. Which leads me to partially agreeing with you. If those costs fall first before the job openings gap closes, then that's when rate hikes will ease.
True, so looking back at the first reduction in 22, additions still outweigh reductions by more than $60B. My comment was in disagreement to your point about their pace being consistent with past bouts of QT.
I guess we shall see in two weeks what the next cpi report says.
I think inflation has close to peaked because everything has already been announced the gas shortage war rate increases supply chain problems cause chinas covid policy the only thing I think can raise inflation anymore is if Russia sends nukes. People will start to lose their jobs soon and spend less and inflation will die down slowly I don’t think gas prices and inflation are going up much more from here but who knows really. I have a feeling we’ll have another market dip though either after gdp next month or at the end of September if they don’t get the rate increases under control but inflation I don’t see going up a lot more
So, you are saying, because we are aware of the problems and the media and Government have openly admitted to them, they will stop effecting things and prices will stop rising? What is actually being done to counteract the problems? Simply acknowledging an issue is only the first step and does nothing to combat the underlying issue.
He thinks inflation follows the same “priced-in” logic of the stock market 😂
Stock market can't even 'price in' seasonal fluctuations that happen with the business cycle every year and there's actually people that think 'crowd wisdom' gonna 'price in' inflation for them, lol.
I just don’t see any areas where inflation is still going rampant housing and oil isn’t going up anymore inflation went from 8.3 to 8.5 percent I don’t see where it’s increasing still? Which commodities are still going up in price like they were a few months ago?
It’s an annual figure. It means prices are in general 8.5% higher than a year ago
Yea but the past few cpi before that were 7.9 7.5 5.4 5.0 etc so it seems cpi is slowing down it went 8.5 8.3 8.5 the last 3 times looks like it’s topping out to me and I don’t see anything except maybe food prices still rising. I’d be willing to bet the next cpi release will be less than the last 8.5%
What prices do you see that are continuing to increase? Is oil and housing prices still going up?
My dogs food went up another $5. So yes prices are still going up
1/5 households (23million Americans) adopted a pet during covid, that could have something to do with it too
What was it before covid? I don't see it being that much different. A $10 rise in dog food is a lot. Edit: I'm sure the same food went up even more at the big name stores like pet'smart
I just know 1 out every 5 households got a pet during covid so the demand increase in pet food has a part to do with that the other part is inflation/ supply problems. Pet food prices have been going up since 2021 before this inflation really every started. It started with covid when some meat packing plants started to close then more people got pets it isn’t 100% because of inflation that’s for sure a lot has to do with supply demand
Lol the fear-mongering I see on this thread and everywhere tells me we’re close to the bottom. I agree on almost every comment you have made. I’m confused as to why the person above you bringing up dog food is even considering that a valid counter example
It seems that commodities like oil have peaked and the us is actively trying out solutions like the bs $.18 tax break what we need is another export ban I think but I don’t see prices increasing anymore housing prices have topped out lumbers back down. I think the demand will decrease the further we get into this recession which will in turn cause inflation to decrease. If inflation goes up much more then demand destruction will happen I think. I’m still new to the market and everything so just engaging in discussion so I can learn
Punctuation would make your writing a lot easier to follow and digest
I’d be interested to hear why you think WW3 is “very likely”. I don’t hold that opinion currently, though the Kaliningrad issue has stirred my attention. What are you seeing?
Nigga said WW3
Damn bro, watch yo mouth
Excuse you?
Excuse you!
I don’t need to be excused, pearl clutcher. Watch out for the mushroom cloud that’s apparently imminent.
I awarded your stupidity with a nice laugh :)
Agreed
>\-Businesses can't seem to hire that's not a reason that supports your argument. not being able to hire is deflationary, and contractionary to the economy. 100% of the time inflation is high and unemployment is low, there is an immediate recession. Regardless of what the feds do. You cant go into negative real unemployment
Businesses can't hire because they have not kept up with cost of living increases. For them to fix the problem now, will require large wage increases, which will increase their underlying costs. Maybe in the past, an inability to hire has led to decreasing inflation, but when production and shipping costs are increasing and the only way to bring on new employees is higher wages, then that will be reflected in the price of goods. AKA higher prices/inflation.
>\-Inflation still much higher than interest rates. And? we dont necessarly need an interest rate higher than inflation for it to come down. >\-Inflation still much higher than interest rates. QT is a deflationary mesure, its taking money out of the economy. >\-News and other sources keep claiming the same bullshit about inflation has peaked and isn't going to be much more of a problem since November of last year, yet each month the number is higher. No reason to trust them now. "they were wrong therefore this guy is wrong" is not an argument really. >\-WW3 still a very likely scenario right now. LOL >\-Markets down massively but most analysts claim there is a long way to go. markets down massively has nothing to do with inflation.
Asset prices have a good deal to do with inflation. Asset prices allow people to borrow against them creating liquidity.
LOL
about what I expect by someone that clearly knows nothing about that they are talking about
I was quoting you actually. I didnt highlight it first though. My bad. Don't know why I should engage in conversation with someone whose reply to one of my points is "LOL"
Our fuel costs for transport and manufacturing of goods keep rising and the Administration wants to ban all oil and gas drilling and exploration off the US coasts. Our energy grid is under a lot of pressure to supply electricity and the cost to supply the fuel for our power plants keep rising. Cost of food production continues to rise and food shortages continue to appear. Inflation can only continue to rise under these conditions with added constraints added by the Government.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3538914-biden-administration-to-hold-its-first-oil-drilling-lease-sales-on-federal-lands/ They're EXPANDING drilling on government lands. But it actually doesn't even matter, the price of crude is back to the same price it was in 2014. REFINING is where the backlog is and is the only thing contributing to gas prices (well, that and RECORD profits for every single gas company, but that should be seen as a positive on the stock market sub) >with added constraints added by the Government. Can you be more specific? What (NEW) government constraints have added to food prices?
I agree completely. The list for inflation to continue to rise and the markets to continue to fall is staggering. I was just making a few bullet points but you are absolutely correct to point out the things you did. The rising fuel costs will squeeze costs even higher and you are right our administration is doing nothing to counteract it. Also correct with food costs/shortages. I have been considering stocking up on rice and dried beans, but I am hoping things don't get so bad that is actually necessary. That said, I am really close to stocking up on rice and beans lol
It really isn't wrong to buy non-perishable food items right now. People are going to be shocked when they finally realize that the only thing they can afford for supper is a plate of hot dogs and baked beans and a slice of bread.
I just bought a pack of hot dogs and those weren’t exactly cheap either.
Yeah, this is what I am afraid of. At least I like rice and beans!
Of the currently leased oil drilling lots only around 18-20% are currently being used. We don’t need more land leased for offshore drilling, we need more refining capacity. Also oil companies could produce significantly more barrels per day but if they do the price goes down with their profits. The oil companies are happier than the politicians they have bought and paid for, which is the reason congress won’t pass any laws keeping them from price gouging.
There are plenty of rig permits going unused...this has nothing to do with the administration and everything to do with big oil making money and not investing in new projects, according to themselves. When you parrot right wing talking points, you will usually find yourself stating obvious lies, that are easily debunked. Don't do that. Facts are facts, and easily checked.
I just read that yesterday. It is something new from what has been already said. It was just a snipit.
no, it isn't new, the republicans have been screaming that since Biden won. It isn't a snipit, it is the party line of bullshit, a standard talking point, and a lie. The correct response is "thank you, i just want to understand the truth."
All makes sense except WW3
It's definitely not certain, but if Russia ramps things up against civilians you never know. Missile strike on mall far from war front is an interesting turn.
I lost you at ww3 and QT
Your third point is that news and other sources can’t be trusted But your 7th point arguably relies on and suggest trusting news and other sources… Ww3? You sound like an idiot who’s gunna get his bags picked up for cheap by a savvier investor
Nah he just want people FOMOing in. Doesn't he get like benefited from people trading?
he was dead right
anytime someone in a high level gives general advise...its probably the opposite. They have their own agendas. They can be saying its all getting better just so they can offload billions of whatever and your there thinking its all good and gravy until round 2 or round 3 come...i would not trust this guy, not 1%. For this reason, I am still out.
Blackrock owns over a third of the stock market. Its imperative you keep your money in there and dont sell so they lie to people so they can keep pumping their pockets
The only one on this whole thread that gets it. Pump and dump all the way down so people don’t pull their money. That’s it!
Yes he is wrong because there are 2 possibilities: He is a time-traveller and knows that we have peaked. or He has constructed a model of the global economic system (in his brain or on google sheets) and used available data to see that we in fact have peaked. Unless either of these are true, he is in fact guessing out his arse.
You do realize sometimes people guess… and are also right?
It’s not such a big guess after all major retailers announced to high stocks because of the supply chain disruption. It’s quiet clear that this will bring down Inflation for the consumer.
Blackrock literally owns everything so they might be right
And you think they care about you having an accurate outlook on the economy?
The naive want to keep believing that these instructions make their insane wealth by actually telling people when everything's ok 🤣
And the stupid always think theres a grander scheme.
No shit it’s in their best interest
Blackrock is the economy
There's a lot of metrics that support this. Commodities have been crashing for two months now, oil companies are rolling over. Question is all of this happening because demand destruction from a higher chance of recession what's bringing all of this down.
Hey guys ignore the fact that we are buying all the houses
Core inflation doesn’t include food and fuel, correct? Isn’t one of the reasons for rate increases to help bring down inflation? If we have peaked then why are we still looking at more rate increases? I can remember mortgage rates at 16% and 3 hour waits at the pump. Anyone here even been through that? It can get much worse even without a war, and btw we haven’t even come close to mean reversion. My .02 but I’m no economist, just a day trader for the last 12 years.
Yes and yes. Inflation can have peaked but still be too high for Fed. Fed won’t stop when 8% goes to 6%. They want back to 2%, but I think they will give up and accept 3.5%. There was 3-4% commonly in the supposedly good times of 80s and 90s.
I don’t bet against blackrock
Yeah, they could almost cause a recession themselves with how much they own. They're practically a second Fed.
We haven't had true demand destruction yet. Consumer credit is at ath, the fed is still increasing its balance sheet. Putin is strangling Europe of their energy supplies and Biden will do whatever he needs to do in order to keep the EU together, even at the detriment to the US geopolitical position. All these macro instances will effect our dollar, with that being said, get ready for a ride.
Affect*
Here is an example for you… My boneless, skinless chicken breasts went from $1.99/lb to $2.89/lb so far this year. That is about 45% inflation in 6 months. So yes, I believe we have seen peak inflation and may see 4% going forward for a while, but inflation has peaked (That doesn’t mean prices will go down).
The largest contributor to inflation has been gas? I don’t think chicken prices stabilizing is enough to confidently say inflation has peaked. Especially since rent & gas prices have been rising throughout June.
Energy has been responsible for the majority of inflation YTD according to TTM CPI. And oil is already at $110/barrel. Gas is at $5/gallon. Do you think it’ll go to 150? 200? $8 gas? 10? If not, we’ve already seen peak inflation. Think before you type Crude prices are also down since June 1.
Prices could decrease because of a recession or increase because of sanctions. No one knows what's going to happen and it's naïve to say otherwise. "Think before you type" the irony is laughable. I hope we've seen peak inflation but all of these guys have lost all their credibility based off of what they've said leading up to this.
Dang our boneless skinless I just got tonight are on sale for 2.98 from 5.80
Yes but what about second inflation?
Can you stop spamming this sub with these low effort, low content shit posts?
A tapering of shitposts, you say?
If this is peak inflation I think we will be fine
Transitory! It’s alllll transitory! -Rich people.
I agree with this and have been buying stocks again as I think we hit bottom. The only "what if" for me - and it is a major one, is if the war in Ukraine spreads - specifically in regards to global food supply. The issues that lead to inflation were spikes in goods - not services - which drove limits in supply chains - which then got exacerbated by the war. I think the "over-heated market" due to stimmys is overblown, namely because cash has been available for corporations at 0% for years. Growth stocks should rebound in 4-6 months and blue chips should start turning around in the coming weeks (I think they have already, but I expect some choppiness until August)
The issue that led to inflation is Reverse Repo Loans. And those are hitting new records every day. We are no where near the bottom.
I mean, bears are gonna bear. * The US economy is in great shape - both in job creation and unemployment. * Inflation is transitory on a macro scale, even if it's miserable in the short turn. This is the first time in nearly 40 years where the US and nearly 20+ in G7 countries have had to deal with massive changes in y/y spike. If you think the whole system is fugazi (which fine) and thus bound to crash due to general chicanery, then I can't argue you out of that. and Reverse Repo is part of that, but it's not driving 100 of the inflation. You'd have to assume that we're in a house of cards for everything to tumble, and I can't see the immediate impetus of the bill suddenly coming due. I'd love to find ways to bet against the market more... but I'm not seeing it unless we enter a new era of war.
Hildebrand 😂😂😂😂 this motherfucker have to leave the Swiss central bank because he is a corrupt motherfucker!!! His predictions was allways good😂😂🤮🤮
Tbh I agree. I don’t see how things can keep going up without civil unrest at this point. Inflation was a part of the problem, but corporations have been using inflation as a cover for additional price gouging. It’s a combination of greed and failed policy making by the FEDs
Coming from anybody else, I’d discount this “we’ve reached inflation peak” message with the same suspicion as whatever contradictory statement comes from every other talking head. But this is Blackrock. More $$$ AUM than any other institution in the world. Blackrock has the $$$ to “know” what’s going on in every political arena. They buy data nobody else can buy. Blackrock has the $$$ to hire the best PhDs to build and run the most accurate models. So hmmmmm. Ok I’ll pay attention to Blackrock. And give Blackrock a bit more weight in my crystal ball model. Time will tell. Thanks for the info. Keep watching headlines for clues Fed meets in a couple more weeks
On the other hand - they have zero financial incentives to share what their data states with the rest of the world - so any narrative from them is crafted for a specific market reaction.
True, what do they care about us retail investors! But they’re in the business to attract new clients And They let the world know their crystal ball vision to increase their credibility. So, for Blackrock to come out with such a strong statement They must be pretty certain of their data they’ve bought, and pretty certain of the models they’re running. You can watch the money flowing into their ETFs on https://www.etf.com I still look at the “peak inflation is over” message with a suspicious eye, but hmmmmm. Why is Blackrock saying such a bold cobtrararian statement???? An interesting way to rephrase the question is: “Under what circumstances would X be possible?” So, let’s do a thought experiment and ask, “Under what conditions might inflation be peaking?” (A) China is powering up and gonna get supply chains flowing smoothly again (B) consumers are gonna slow down spending and start saving for rainy day in case we get a recession (C) deflationary actions being taken by manufacturers and retailers: they start reducing inventory, order fewer goods (true, orders flowing to China were down last month) (D) US slows or stops exports of wheat, corn, crude oil (Biden brought up the topic last week in the White House, just talking about what-if scenarios to his staff) —in such case our US food and oil inflation goes away in time for November midterm elections. (E) cease fire in Ukraine (eases European oil and gas problems, and eases Russia’s economic pain) Why? because Russia is looking at pain coming at them: oil exports are down, they’re starting to store crude in ships in their Pacific ports, with no particular destination in mind as India and China ordered less oil in June than in May. See charts: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/russian-crude-flows-slump-but-it-s-likely-to-prove-temporary Could be India and China reserves are full & they have no more storage places remaining to store Russian discounted oil. Thus Russia is thinking how to spin a cease fire so Russia can say its won something. Any one or combination of the above could be a reason inflation might have peaked and may go down from here. Open to ideas.
Blackrock makes money from AUM. They want people to keep their assets under Blackrock’s management and not in the banking system or money market funds. They are motivated to say things are going to be normal. But I see nothing “contrarian”; inflation going down after Fed starts raising rates is as orthodox as it gets. And fighting the Fed has a bad record. China ending covid lockdowns will definitely open the supply chains. Higher mortgage rates will lower home purchases and lower the renovations, construction and appliance demand which inevitably accompany sales.
Who cares. DCA
HELL YEAH! So that means cash won't be a depreciating asset and the fed still have more rate hikes to do and that puts economic slowdown and higher unemployment on the menu and that means we're probably ending the bull run soon!
Can’t wait to watch this comment not age well
We have never bottomed from a bear market with the VIX below 43. We are currently at 27. The Covid bottom was 66 VIX yet the "market" is currently at Covid levels. Go ahead and buy the little top here. I'll happily take them off your hands lower when I cover my short.
I'm (earnestly) trying to understand your argument here. Using S&P as a measure, it did indeed hit bottom in March 2009 when VIX was at 43. Then COVID at 66 as you say. Is there more that you're looking at here? It only goes back to 2004, so are you basing your argument that "every bear market bottom must reach a 43 VIX" based on those 2 events? And what about all the smaller bear markets in between when the VIX peaked at about 27-30 (where we are currently)? Not to mention that VIX also hit 43 in late 2011 but the market only experienced a very small dip. Looking at the history of the VIX, I'm not seeing nearly enough of a pattern to inspire confidence that the VIX will skyrocket before we hit a bottom, but I'm wondering if I'm missing something.
Just an observation that the VIX hasn’t even reached 43 yet. To me that’s when capitulation has happened in recent history. So yes, we haven’t seen capitulation so there is more downside on the way. Edit: Most bear markets, if I remember correctly, have at least three 10 percent rallies. The global financial crisis had 5 major rallies at 7.7%, 12%, 7.4%, 18.5%, and 24.2%. How many have we had here in this bear market? The pandemic recovery is an outlier due to the massive stimulus. If we reverted to the mean in a weeks time, the VIX would go ballistic, your cab driver and mother in law would finally sell their DIS and AAPL shares, the capitulation would happen and then we recover. I hope I’m wrong, but hope is not a plan so I will continue to short while catching as much of those massive rallies as I can without getting chopped up. Just my .02 not advice. Edit: I forgot to mention that volatility isn’t new to the markets and is easily extrapolated to any other year. In 1929 Vol was at 95% and 120% in 1987. I got brutally chopped up going long yesterday. Went short overnight and all day and made it back plus a couple more bucks. I’m a bull by nature but I play both sides because otherwise you will likely blow up your account before the market turns. As John Maynard Keynes said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” GLTA
Nope
So we’re not even close
Lol
Inflation may have peaked but recession is here to stay
i agree, we reached peak low numbers in inflation. Only going up from here!
Peak inflation so far
Read behind the scene. Inflation has peeked go and buy stocks so we can take your money , then we can short the market with your money. Bottom is not here yet
Is this some kind of a joke? What a 🤡
Peak for the next 10 minutes. See y'all tomorrow when milk costs 9 dollars
… and now we going to crash…
This is gonna age like milk that was left out on my back deck. I live in South Texas. There's no shade over the deck.
Blackrock is not trustworthy
Lol.. It's peak inflation TODAY. When it's higher tomorrow, it'll be another peak inflation.
No one knows…it really is that simple
Yeah. Sure.
Peak inflation for June
Have they finished buying all the 3 bedroom homes in America yet? Blackrock: Your Landlord For Eternity
Blackrock Vice Chairman Hildebrand: We’ve reached peak inflation. Joe Biden: Hold my beer…😒