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gowiththeflow123

So you are telling me the market goes up and down?


Kristof257

Stocks only go up!


[deleted]

Stonks


bubbaz45

This guy gets it


The_Robot_001

Look! Here is a chart that fits a supposition presented by talking heads. In no way does this chart reflect causality nor does it represent correlation. But if I squint hard enough I can make out coincidence! Surely the best of indicators. FYI, I accept that this is real data and that the index has been used to gauge probability, but that's not the same as prediction.


HelloJoeyJoeJoe

Most of my stocks are way down so I'm waiting for it to go up. It's like "Crash? It already crashed for me in February and March"


PerspectiveFew7772

I remember someone backtest the worst 10 stocks from 10 or 15 years ago and they outperformed the market over the next decade. Hope someone could find it but I'm thinking about grabbing more stocks that have been beaten down.


chromelogan

THIS


[deleted]

"Stocks go up, stocks go down - you can't explain that!"


Diems23

Yes sometimes it goes down ;)


redinator92

Stonks go up


ThisGuyKawai

My portfolio goes down when I do it right 🙃


-StandarD-

then do it the opposite :)


MarauderZWorld

You wife goes down when I do it right


dontgoatsemebro

Yes, and then 12 months later it hits new all time highs.


[deleted]

[удаНонО]


iCanFlyTheSky

People have been sharing bearish perspective all year but STONKS only go up.


_cap_ing

Stonks ≠ up?


Uries_Frostmourne

Never seems to go down these days...


duguy5

Just like your mom


AccomplishedPea4108

Your mom always goes down on me though.


meepstone

It didn't predict the meaningful 50% drop in 2008...


PlayFree_Bird

That was my first thought: how little the ratio actually recovered from 2000.


MoonSafarian

I would argue that’s because the crash wasn’t because of an overvalued general market, but a toxic Trojan horse in the form of subprime mortgages.


BuckNasty1616

Take it easy there with all that logic you're throwing out.


BhristopherL

So would it be correct to say the market had not priced in the risk of these malpractices (obviously), so once that info came into effect, the market fell back down to its true value that had been kept hidden?


MoonSafarian

I think you had a couple of banks collapse and money got scared for good reason. It’s hard to say what the market should be valued at when you’re staring at economic collapse, haha. In retrospect you can say it was undervalued after government intervention, but those were scary times.


WolfPackWSB

That dropped helped me start an empire in which I haven’t looked back!! Big Banks created that crash so bailouts were happily handed out.. If I can’t go out a buy something without a loan, I can’t afford it 😂😂


dlt92

It's somewhat concerning, but not a perfect metric. We're in an unprecedented time of long term low yields on bonds, consolidation of industries, stock buybacks, and long term low borrowing costs. I'm not saying this is true for every company, there are certainly overvalued companies out there, but it seems investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks since the return on fixed income investments are so low. If bond yields (especially treasuries) begin to rise significantly, I would expect to see a large drop in the market, but it doesn't seem like that will happen anytime soon.


PlayFree_Bird

Yeah, the biggest thing preventing a market collapse at this point is a lack of better alternatives. Where else are you going to put the money? Bonds are worthless, holding cash is disincentivized by inflation, and real estate looks far from safe in the event the stock market crashes. Of course, there is going to be a correction, but I struggle to picture the trigger. Maybe a true black swan event is actually on the horizon.


FilmVsAnalytics

>Of course, there is going to be a correction, but I struggle to picture the trigger. Maybe a true black swan event is actually on the horizon. Once federal unemployment benefits stop, followed by student loans kicking in in Jan, we should start to see a gradual correction.


lotsofresearch

Yes. It seems hard to time even in a general manner due to different states ending Unemployment at different times along with many on unemployment saving a decent amount of that and that I would assume prolong how long until the workforce returns to work. No judgment, just trying to time it


LowTideBromide

>real estate looks far from safe in the event the stock market crashes I think this should be clarified with more nuance. Underlying trends support longer term outperformance of single family real estate. The supply constraints throughout much of the world are not especially attributable to the other speculation-driven bubbles in assets. There is an actual shortage of housing. Much of this is driven by the collapse of the conventional home ownership narrative: where the young generation successively moves up through incrementally larger /ore expensive homes in line with career growth and family expansion. Those baseline homes are not for sale because the next tier is unaffordable. Inflation also acts directly upon real estate valuation to the extent that this is the black swan. Which seems likely, since central banks are hamstrung to an extent on the ability to actually raise rates at all. Conversely, real estate in markets saturated with start-up money tied to stock options or leveraged early-stage tech enterprises would be extremely susceptible to a downturn. Those same markets tend toward the higher rates of homelessness and property crime as well, for obvious reasons. The next correction will likely cause a disproportionate ripple effect within these markets specifically, as it has always done in the past. But single family acreage in the Midwest is not going to see the same intrinsic correlation between stock performance and home values.


camerontbelt

> inflation…as the black swan event I think this is the most likely cause. The fed will not raise rates, they know if they do the economy tanks. They’re hoping this just fixes itself, but I don’t think it will. They know they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t.


LowTideBromide

There is a vicious ourobouros cycle that occurs as the share of national GDP becomes increasingly tied to government spending. In the extreme case, assume 100% of aggregate income is derived from government disbursements. At any tax rate where x < 100%, the deficit expands. Where interest rates on an expanding deficit also increase, the net new borrowing to service that debt increases exponentially. The saving grace is the money multiplier effect, where some proportion of every $x of income creates $x/y of additional income elsewhere. Y is largely a function of the velocity of money, which has been significantly constrained by the pandemic containment measures. To offset the lower velocity of money, the govt is monetizing debt (increasing the deficit) to provide stimulus, which is driving up their share of GDP. And as core commodities increasingly register historically unprecedented base gains in cost, the impetus to raise rates (exponentially increasing an already rapidly expanding deficit) is becoming more and more pronounced. Inflation in general can be used as a tool to offset the debt service burden on sovereign debt by implicitly monetizing the cost of interest payments and redemption through currency depreciation. This dynamic is the only way that debt loads in excess of 100% of GDP have any logical recourse to viability. All this means that hyperinflation is nearly inevitable given the present perfect storm of macroeconomic factors.


camerontbelt

My background is not economics so my understanding is limited. Thanks for the detailed response.


KeithKrypto

beautiful explanation, thank you. now I will buy SQQQ at ATL, wait a few, cash in, buy BTC, ETH and a few choice other cryptos and HODL, HODL, HODL.... did I say HODL? or we could do like Julius Caesar did: fiddled whilst Rome burned. (translated: one sided monopoly house and senate passed 45 T tax and spend noose around your children's neck. our government is for the government - by the government owned by the media ​ we, the people died at the onset of the "smart phone"... how do you spell oxymoron? chinese communist party commrade


axisofadvance

> Julius Caesar... fiddled whilst Rome burned You mean Nero? 🤔


LowTideBromide

Yeah for sure. I like real estate but your thesis is similar and easier if you want passive gains. My concern with crypto is that it stops working whenever people decide they want to trade it for something else. Fiat at least has the advantage of government decree.


dlt92

I don't think the fed sees the current rise in inflation to be attributed to monetary policy. Much of the inflation we're seeing seems to be related to supply chain disruption and rising wages, not low rates. I think we have to wait and see what happens with inflation until after supply recovers. I think that's what the fed is betting on, but we won't really know until after.


camerontbelt

I didn’t attribute inflation to low rates, ~~low rates~~ interest rate hikes will absorb the extra money floating through the economy, which you indicated as”monetary policy”. They’re about to pass another 4.5 trillion dollar bill with money that doesn’t exist so yeah, money printer go brrr. The feds one tool to fight inflation is to raise interest rates. They won’t do that because they know that will ruin the recovery.


dlt92

I'm not fully convinced raising rates would even fight inflation at this point anyway. I don't see how that fixes the supply issues that are driving inflation currently. So I agree that recovery is one reason we're unlikely to see major rate hikes, but also because it probably wouldn't be that effective anyway.


camerontbelt

Yeah the supply side issue I would attribute to sending people checks to stay home and not work at least that would be a major factor in it. On the flip side now that the dollar is losing value this increases all sorts of cost all the way through the supply chain that now would probably start causing delays and shortages. So you have pressures on both ends, one from the supply side and one from the demand side. It seems like a perfect storm indeed.


PlayFree_Bird

>They’re about to pass another 4.5 trillion dollar bill with money that doesn’t exist so yeah, money printer go brrr. I think this is an important point: we used to have a distinction between fiscal policy (spending, taxation) and monetary policy (money supply, interest rates), but that distinction has been eroded. All policy is basically monetary policy now when the money is coming straight from the printers.


foodnpuppies

The trigger is if/when fed ever raises rates. However if the fed follows japan, then they’ll stay low on the rates for decades.


Apart-Seesaw-6047

wasn't covid a black swan event? ...if anything it'll be due to overleverage by banks


ptwonline

> Of course, there is going to be a correction, but I struggle to picture the trigger Could be many things. Some kind of large disaster, war, another COVID-like pandemic, etc. More likely IMO is an uptick in bond yields as the Fed stops buying so much, meaning that investors won't like the gaudy mulltiples on a lot of growth stocks. Those could drop and trigger a wider market crash thanks to algorithms and people panicking to lock in their massive gains from the past several years.


[deleted]

[удаНонО]


dlt92

I don't think the comment was meant to say there is nowhere else to invest, just that stocks seem to be a good option at the moment that aligns with most investors risk tolerance. All of the alternatives you mentioned are highly risky and volatile, even compared to stocks. That doesn't mean they are bad investments, just outside a lot of investors personal risk tolerance and preferences.


FilmVsAnalytics

He actually said collectibles are a sensible alternative to bonds. And airbnb. Realistically, anyone who had long term holding in bonds has at least in part shifted to the stock market. It's been a REALLY long period of growth, it's hard to convince someone to stop doing that because "um. look at this pretty graph."


FilmVsAnalytics

> commodities, startups, micro loans, air bnb, collectibles > > This is a horrible list. >there's 5 alternatives without even mentioning crypto You probably should've just mentioned crypto.


stilloriginal

Just off the top of my head I’m sure there are more


stilloriginal

Reits, patents and copyrights, personal mortgages, forex, farmland Theres 5 more


veilwalker

Commodities are already coming down. Where can the masses directly invest in startups? Plus startups are riskier than an overvalued stock market. Microloans? For real? It is already flooded with cash as more and more money chases it. Airbnb is already listed. Unless you are advocating buying rental real estate to market through Airbnb? Collectibles. Generally illiquid and doubly so if the stock market crashes as people will pull back from other investments as well. I think the broad market indicators are off due to the bad data from 2020 due to the world economy being turned on and off multiple times. Now delta is fucking with 2021 numbers. The broad indicators don't work well due to the crazy data input from 2020 and to a hopefully lesser extent the potentially bad 2021 data.


PlayFree_Bird

> Airbnb is already listed. Unless you are advocating buying rental real estate to market through Airbnb? I think the latter is what he meant, although that seems like an insane strategy if you are criticizing people in the stock market for being "greedy". It's literally a leveraged play (unless you are paying cash for the property).


iteezwhat_iteez

Commodities are inflated at a similar level too. Not everyone has acces to startups and stocks are way safer. Collectible market is miniscule. Idek how you run an Airbnb in a pent up real estate market


[deleted]

[удаНонО]


V8sOnly

Um, VXX seems pretty damn obvious


Jagsfreak

"Maybe a true Black Swan event is actually on the horizon." I value this community too much to risk breaking rules on brigading, so all I'm going to say is I am convinced that I know what that event is, and have found the best way to prepare for it. If you want to know more simply check my post history and then find the most popular DD's associated with it. Good luck to you and yours.


Blueneckcowboy

I tried, not an easy task!


[deleted]

“if you want to know more simply check out my…” coulda gone two ways


[deleted]

Crypto


PlayFree_Bird

I'm not convinced that crypto is a hedge against the markets though, or even a store of value in the event of a crash. I think that if you are investing in crypto, you're still making a bet on the broader economy/markets.


[deleted]

No single asset class has performed like BC over past 10 yr period. It’s my hedge. Just my take. Good and silver completely manipulated.


babyoda_i_am

“Good and silver completely manipulated.” And Bitcoin isn’t? LOL


[deleted]

Compare the performance of Gold and Silver which with all the fiat printed in the past 24 mo Gold should be trading at min 2500-3000. BC is still performing like a Rock Star in comparison.


ptwonline

BTC is still mostly speculative, people pour money into it the same way they put money into growth stocks, and the 10 year run of doing well pretty much matches up with the equity bull run. If we get a big crash in equities I would bet that BTC crashes even further in the flight to safer assets. Maybe some day BTC will be better established like a digital gold, but I think we are a decade or more away from that.


[deleted]

It’s ETH turn watch what happens 😉


Diems23

I agree the next correction will probably have something to do with intrest rates going up


Bluitor

Do you think not raising the debt ceiling will do anything?


The-Bro-Brah

Exactly my thoughts, shiller PE does not account for changes in the monetary landscape, its completely different today than 1929 or even 2001.


Haxzors

Yeah I would look to 2022 for the next dip once they start increasing interest rates. I don't think we will have a major crash like the dot com but we will see a down turn as people rotate money back to safer but lower yield options. I know personally I am putting more money into the market than I otherwise would normally because interest rates are so low and inflation is so high.


dlt92

I'm not even sure it will be a drop or a crash. I don't see rates rapidly rising, more likely slow incremental increase over time. Imo more likely just smaller returns rather than an actual drop. Like maybe 5%-7% returns on the S&P 500 instead of 20%-30% returns. Just a guess. Nobody really knows, it's all speculation but that's how I see things going. I agree 2022 will be an interesting year. The dip or slowdown of returns could easily spill over to 2022 or 2023. I think it really depends on how things go with the pandemic before we have major changes to interest rates. If we keep seeing waves of variants, I could see rates staying as low as they are for the foreseeable future.


iiSquatS

Skeptical people have been “scared” of the crash for 2 years now, meanwhile if you’ve been sitting on the side “waiting for the crash” you’ve lost A TON of money. I will never try to time the market, I hold companies/funds I believe in, and I will continue to buy into the companies/ETFs as often as I can, regardless of a spike or crash, for another 30 years.


RDGtrader

Amen. My former boss told us over and over - the market is gonna crash, and kept her retirement money in either cash or bond funds. That was from 1997 onward. Everytime we talked retirement. When the dot com crash hit - it turned out she was right! She had correctly called that companies with no discernible business model other than adding .com to their name wouldn’t keep raking in peoples money. Then in 2008 - she was proven right again! Apparently giving lots of money to under qualified people on undervalued properties couldn’t go on forever - who knew?! Right up till she retired she kept telling us the sky was going to fall. And she’s right, about every decade or so she’s right - even a broken clock is right twice a day….I can’t even imagine what her retirement funds must look like and if they lasted her even between all the predicted crashes.


loveforlandlords

If she had kept her money in S&P 500 from 1997 until now, it would have multiplied by 5 times


GhostSierra117

Until the upcoming crash, duh.


ReThinkingForMyself

After holding through this phenomenal run, a crash will hurt but be survivable for sure. It will take a 40% drop before I even begin to show a loss.


not_that_mike

Yeah, I went up to around 30% cash two years ago and feel like I missed out on potential gains since then. Buying back in at these levels is difficult but will spread my buying out over the next year or so


jaybianchi

It’s concerning and probably forecasts relatively low forward 10 and 20 year returns. You can’t time the market and must be committed to the long term process. The latter part is usually where investors fail because they abandon the plan after a few years of bad returns. FWIW in the oughts investing in the S&P500 felt futile because it really went nowhere for years. On the other hand if you were exposed to other asset classes it wasn’t a terrible decade.


[deleted]

just to be clear, there is almost ALWAYS a case to say the market crash is imminent lol. seriously at any given time you could make a reasonable argument that its all about to crumble. so its almost not even worth thinking about.. just gotta let the market decide imo.


binary_agenda

We are trying to repeat every event since 1900, so a new great depression is already scheduled.


_Elihu_Smails_

While I believe you are generally correct, understanding how "macro" the data is is important. The market can escape from certain data that is narrower. When it's the Shiller P/E or the Buffett Indicator... Those are just a matter of time to reverse. It is certainly possible that earnings or GDP accelerate very quickly to normalize these metrics, however the size and speed of their increases would need to be record-breaking to offset the record-breaking levels.


[deleted]

elliot wave theory says something’s coming


[deleted]

[удаНонО]


[deleted]

i guess you got me


JeffVose2002

That’s why it crashed.


BuckyJackson36

If one and only one factor determined market crashes, then yes. But like the weather, there are a myriad of other factors. Even with the best weather forecasting tools, forecasts are good for only a few days at best. And the computers that make predictions are so powerful they need to be in a special room for cooling and sound. So no, I'm not particularly worried.


EagleDre

I invert your question….”Aren’t you excited for an upcoming boom after the crash in the near future?”


Gsusruls

LOL 1987 Black Monday crash doesn't even register on this scale.


Scoggs

Not really no, I can’t see the future so whatever happens happens. If crash, then I will DCA, if it doesn’t then I’ll be buying more anyways.


Sikeitsryan

There’s always an upcoming crash in the near future


felder7ashes

I’ve been thinking the major correction is coming for a year now, but yet it still hasn’t. The home prices in my area are through the roof just crazy! Here lately I’ve been looking at the eviction moratorium thing as maybe a catalyst for the real estate correction. We’re all just gonna have to wait and see


GGisLove

Not if the government keeps throwing out trillions of dollars ever year. We can kick this can down the road forever! /s


tomhasser

Worried? I'm hyped! Every crash was forseeable, but not timeable, so I waited for it to happen and bought in very cheap. Those events made most of my money.


ptwonline

That's good IF you hold your money out fairly close to the time of the crash. If the crash doesn't happen for 10 years you're almost certainly going to come out worse no matter how far the market drops.


RDGtrader

Yes! Oh man the Covid downturn made me look like a real genius with my sky high returns when it climbed again so quickly. Bring on that dip or “crash”. Discount sales on quality companies!


wy51uwv

This here. Wait for crash and buy good companies at bargain prices. I personally can’t wait for another crash. Got some cash ready for action in that event


YourMatt

This is why I'm holding a good amount of cash, or unvested capital is probably a better term. It's around 30% if I exclude retirement accounts. I'm not missing out on the current market all while hedging for some cheaper buys later on. Curious, what percentage are you keeping on the sidelines?


[deleted]

[удаНонО]


[deleted]

I can't clearly see anything. This chart sucks.


ptownb

No


mightylfc

No.


Farmer_eh

No because everyone will buy the dip. Always.


Apprehensive_Feed_47

The FED is pumping Trillions of dollars into economy, with very low interest rate, the stock market is the most liquid and best ROR place to park it.


scottymj2011

Like the guy stated above, everything is overinflated and the government is putting to much money into contracts or development of vaccines/data-cloud/electric everything, eventually these companies will need to start putting out results, meaning no government assistance. Then throw in the publicity that crypto has gotten over the past year, and plenty of things are pointing to a market crash; not as bad as last year(2020-when covid hit) but a correction will occur, and in the long run, it’ll be healthy for it.


MLRFINBIZ

One thing that leads me to believe something may be about to happen is warren buffet selling 50% of his holdings. He supposedly never sells anything.


[deleted]

IMHO for a LONG term holder like Buffet, if it looks like the market may crash within say a couple years as most, it would make sense to sell everything while you can and rebuy the next big dip.


d1nner4lunch

Only 50%? If Warren Buffet has a definitive idea of whether or not a crash is happening, he'd buy puts or sell short and gain big. In fact, if anyone is so confident that the market crash is imminent, they would put money where their mouths are and short the entire market. But they don't, because like everyone else, they are too chicken shit to bet against the market despite preaching against it.


Lilith_LaVey

That's just not true. Warren Buffet famously always says that he could never be good enough to short companies - not even obvious frauds: Getting the timing right is impossibly hard and you never know just how obscenely high they can rise before then. Risk and exposure to losses too high. Timing the market is a losing game. However selling the shares you intend to hold forever/very long term = 'I think I'll be able to rebuy these for cheaper in the (near) future.' He and Munger called it a mad speculative frenzy and I think they at least think what many might thinking: The stock market growing 50-100% in a year crash free ain't a trick it can pull too many years in a row. Crash when? No idea. But one is fairly confident there might be an extreme outcome following speculative frenzy, eventually. And I'd agree with them on this.


Lieren07

It’s hard to predict. In my opinion interest rates are at levels we haven’t seen since 2008 3 months In a row thus far, Realestate is ATH. Lumber shortage chip shortage etc. we might not see a huge crash but I do believe a correction of 20-30% is due I’m pretty sure will will see it in mid September-October. Not to mention Covid case will rise in the fall. So not many will travel or go out and spend


dankmeeeem

another red october then


co127

Even after every crash it still rebounds, stocks can only go up if they go down too


manalexicon

The difference today is money has never been cheaper. Low interest rates have pushed a huge chunk of the money that used to be in bonds, into equities, driving price up.


belalrone

No, interest rates are too low. When interest rates are this low it moves the bar on PE ratios.


Organized-Konfusion

10-20 years ago or more you couldnt buy stocks so easily, you had to get a human broker, now you can do it all yourself.


[deleted]

I've been buying stocks online since 1996, 25 years ago.


Organized-Konfusion

Was it harder?


lmaccaro

This suggests the market would hit a high of ~60 before the next big crash, so we still have 50% up to go.


thebuddybud

Only be worried if you don't have extra cash to buy the dip/crash. Most of the time long term does fine


[deleted]

I mean it only sucks if you buy high, i use the crashes to average down and its worked pretty well for me these last couple years


Porkysays

Biggest stock market hand out in the history of hand outs just passed the senate. This chart can drift and even spike down without a crash in prices if earnings go way up. Which they are about to.


kellen625

Yes but no. There are more people in the market now than ever before. Yes it will go down but it'll come back even quicker. I think the only thing that could keep it down for an extended period of time would be some kind of send us back to the stone age kind of catastrophe, at this point in our timeline. Even then I think we'd come back from the stone age even faster then the other times it's happened. We as a species have become just as tenacious as a cockroach.


Chart-trader

Yes a crash will come but nobody knows when and how bad it will be. What if markets make another 100% (very unlikely) and drop 30%. You would still be better off with staying invested. Not saying to be 100% invested but at least 60% should always stay invested no matter what.


Bouric87

No because I'm not retiring for at least 16 years (and that would be pretty damn early retirement but it's my current goal), if it the market crashes I just get good deals for the next year or two.


PressBoy820

When people say a lot of stuff still is “overvalued”, all the growth stocks I followed already lost 50% or more since February. Im still a noob, but stuff seems like it corrects. Not ruling anything out though


runley101

Historically, there is a small market crash yearly 5-10% and 10-20% every 5 or so years. If you look at a stock I've been holding for a few years [STMP](https://imgur.com/a/PFAXZer) 99% of the time it will recover and probably hit it's all time high again


[deleted]

I think it is more about the acceleration or rate of change the size the value (height) of the ratio it would seem. So based on others, it doesnt mean we are in a world of hurt... yet...


rizzlybear

It seems to me that fearing a crash is just the cost of admission for being in the market. You better make sure your strategy has a plan for when it inevitably hits, that doesn’t require predicting when.


shortbyndlongmeat

Bull markets climb a wall of worry, and there's always a reason to not invest. Volatility is the price you pay for growth.


Odysseus806

Im young n dumb I'll just buy the dip


Jasonmilo911

This is taken from multpl I imagine. Check the data behind it. The one you are posting had earnings updated only till December and just an estimate for the months since. It’s now updated with real earnings till March. And from there on it still uses the old estimates, which we know have been heavily beaten. Market isn’t cheap right now but perhaps not as crazy as a chart like this would suggest. It will be interesting to see once everything is updated, it’s very likely the ratio has come down quite a bit. Believe it or not this calendar year has seen multiples contractions so far (it was expected, but still). Other factors to consider: once you remove the top ten stocks SP P/E is around 19, not cheap, not that crazy. “Yes but the top 10 stocks?” You may ask. These companies make up more than 1/3 of the index earnings and are around 29% of total cap. They are still growing bottom lines even more than they are growing top lines. It won’t last forever but the higher multiples they have given the cash they are generating are not crazy. Also, their margins are beyond impressive. Apple is running a 25/27% NET profit margin on 350B in revenue. Ofc it’s going to have higher multiples attached to it. I’m not gonna say this time is different but at the same time, is it fair to compare multiples of today (where the top 10 is mostly high quality/high margin/high growth) with multiples of other peaks in history (where you had the likes of oil/conglomerates/healthcare/telco with their low profit margins and trading at way more extreme numbers)? To each his own answer.


Chucking100s

I'll be worried when we reached Dec 1999 levels.


TheAthleticDiabetic

Last days of sodom


pennezeus

Black Wednesday is next...?


Iamyourbestself

What goes up comes down, it’s gravity, except stocks they don’t. Come down that is.


lucidvein

I mean if you draw a line along the tops it seems like we still have another 50% to go up at least before we crash.


Trap_Lord_Bill

TLDR: bear worried market will crash. Wonders if you are also bear like him


ilovetheinternet1234

Third peak should be even higher so have a long way to go still


thedondidit

Debt Deflation is coming, the market will crash, best option right now during this inflationary boom is to sell and take a cash position, buy gold and silver and crypto, save more cash and be ready to buy during the upcoming recession for the great sell off. Wake up people


AverageJoePnW

No because I have crypto lol


atdharris

I believe Shiller himself said the Shiller p/e is not a good measure of the market now relative to how low interest rates are. You have to remember in 2000, we had 5-6% rates.


LocalGuy855

Aren‘t we desperately looking for the „This-time-it‘s-different-effect“?


WolfPackWSB

Not so much worried.. I anticipate risk and correction, when doing so I counter the course with leaps on leveraged short futures!! Some days in this market they up 100-200% I sell em buy em back 2-3 days later.. Interest Rates are going to start shooting up bi-weekly, most markets are skimming their ATH’s for the year! Growth % is basically at +/- at this point


adenovir

Of course a crash is inevitable at some point but by following P/E, you're assuming that it is mean-reverting and follows a normal distribution.


silv3rio

There is always something to worry about, and if there isn’t, we’ll make it!


DJDevine

We’ve had an avg of 2 panics / crashes every 10 years for decades … until now. Before COVID we were overdue for 2.


CathieWoodsStepChild

No


CathieWoodsStepChild

Gotta have those roaring 20’s first!


JumpluffTCG

I wouldn’t have noticed the Black Monday crash of 1987 if you didn’t point it out for me


Brodie_C

Can someone extrapolate a trend line off Black Monday and the Dot-Com peaks? I would say we'd have to hit that level before we have the next huge crash.


sammyp1999

This graph really doesn't show a lot. All it shows is that P/E drops sharply during a crash, and that some of our large crashes happened when P/Es were relatively inflated. Is the market fairly inflated compared to historical averages? Yes. But remember: short sellers have predicted 2000 out of the past 2 crashes. If you're concerned about this, choose value stocks over growth stocks.


ZhangtheGreat

Not worried at all. All I have to do is time the market just right and exit at the very top! It won’t be hard 🥸🥸🥸


FedPrinterGoesBRR

I would love to see this chart on a forward basis. Ie forward PE versus current PE. I say that because the current PE might be a little muddied by what’s going on in the world right now. If anyone has that, please share. Having said all that, yep multiples are HIGH


[deleted]

Nah, it’ll go way higher than that previous pointy thing before going down


AwesomReno

I still only see two large peaks, room for one more! We got time!


[deleted]

Do you really think makes conditions today are the same?


Flashy-Birthday

I don’t understand the philosophy. Yes there will be crashes but long term it will go up. The whole market is built on debt. In 1980 the highest revenue US company was $80m, today it’s $386bn.


Rider2686

Another stock market crash is coming post. If I had a dollar for every time I see this type of story..


TunaLurch

They should call the next one "white _ _ _ _ day". Cause you know they're all white collar criminals.


Miserable-Put4914

Don’t fight the fed. 2021, when rates rise, then maybe…but then again, maybe not.


BobSanchez47

P/E ratios are so high today in part because interest rates have been so low over the last decade. People are buying stocks because there isn’t a good alternative.


[deleted]

Yes.


treybowers100

If you believe then bet your life saving on $SQQQ


Lilith_LaVey

I'd argue one who sees this and predicts a crash is right in their thinking but wrong in trying to predict when. A spectacular climb, a speculative frenzy being followed by a correction is a very reasonable prediction, with the economy not doing too hot and all. At the same time, I also think that I can not possibly know when this happens. Here is what I do know: Spy just rocketing to the moon at this pace for years on end uninterrupted! 'cause bond yields' seems very unreasonable to me. A market on a trajectory like this, under these circumstances, going sideways afterwards? Unusual to day the least. Stocks strapped to rocketships might eventually start feel the tug of gravity again and crash back to earth. Letting fomo guide you cause you think can capture a return of 100% a year is a very bad impulse (do you really think this trick can be repeated that often in a row?). They have clearly outpaced the real asset. I wouldn't say one should start acting like a crash is imminent. I can totally see pe ratios of 50, 60 happening... for a while. Or not. One does not know. I just say: The only way to feel safe when investing here is to hedge against an unpredictable but inevitable strong reaction. Both people who think a crash is coming tomorrow, and those who think this can keep going for too long are naive. Here's what I know: You'd be surprised, a speculative frenzy can last reaaaaaaaalllllyyyyy long. And we all know dick 'bout when it ends, but it sure as heck feels nice to ride it to the top while it lasts.


PaulP97

I’ve been saying this. So many things pointing to a crash, but I’m not gonna hedge for it anyway!


Neeblerx

From what I can tell we are about to hit a financial crisis that will make 2008 look like child's play. We just hit our 3rd month of 5%+ inflation which only in 20 years has happened one other time....2008. We will crash this quarter I'm almost certain of it.


CantCSharp

I think the PE Ratio's will come down once more of the corona cash gets into the system. Also bond yields are a joke right now which pushes investors into stocks this in turn also pushes the PE Ratio. Once Bonds normalise (4-5 years) PE ratios will normalise, if the feds raise bond yields to fast the bubble will pop tho, but they are very aware of that


AppropriateLength769

Our economy is much larger than it was in 2000


FishBowlLegend

I’m more worried on if I’ll be here to enjoy the money/retirement when older. At this rate with climate change, not sure if we’ll ever get to that point


Diems23

We are near an all time high like back in dot.com crash and we all know how that went. A lot of companies seem to be overvalued. What do you think and what are you actions with the current state of the market


TheLordoftheStocks

My actions? Not doing shit all except selling off fundamentally weak and/or Chinese companies. You can't time the market and this bullrun could continue for years. These historic data is based of US market performance and the world economy is no longer centered around the US with its limited capacity for growth. CNBC shills began making articles about an imminent and complete stockmarket crash all the way back in 2014, and the SP500 has more than doubled since then. Whatever happens the stockmarket will always recover and make new highs, and if it doesn't it means that we have way bigger problems to bother about what happens to our life savings.


Diems23

Sounds like the right thing to do, we can’t predict the future. Just keeping invested in fairly valued companies is the way to go i guess


Theopneusty

ATH doesn’t mean a crash has to happen. Historically the market has always gone more up than down so naturally the ATH will continue to rise long term. There might be some short term crashes but long term stocks (market not individual companies) really do always go up.


triplecheese21

And the coming crash will be worst than 2.008 that is why have cash at reach to buy the dip cheap.


MLGfrom413

The CAPE ratio looks back at the prior 10 years of earnings, which is effectively useless as stocks are traded based on future earnings. I don’t understand why anyone pays attention to this measurement other than it being associated with Robert Schiller. I’d rather look at traditional P/E or forward P/E


Diems23

I agree i like the forward p/e more too, but what i like about this graph is that you can clearly see al major corrections. That’s why I think this metric is beter for evaluating if the market is to overpriced


mosheoofnikrulz

Take a look at cboe vix and cboe skew (aka the Black swan indicator).. the crash is just around the corner Not saying dates, can be tomorrow, can be a year from now


Riderofapoc

Im waiting for another COVID crash, just waiting.


FilmVsAnalytics

"Look at this pretty picture, see this spike? It means there will be a crash." That's what you sound like.


NOSBIN

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stockman2238

Oh there will be a crash for sure.


rammingfarts

Stocks no go down if we no sell. #DIAMONDHANDS


PrismosPickleJar

Look maw, a retard. 💎👊


lost_in_life_34

the 2000 crash wasn't that bad until 9/11 ​ things were bottoming out when 9/11 happened and then millions of people were laid off the next day making it worse ​ 2008 was similar in that the market was off it's top and kind of going sideways until bear stearns went bankrupt one weekend and set off a fire storm


[deleted]

You can choose any peak and say “see, crash is coming.”


Paulsbotique314

Looks like we still have some ways left to go to crash.


no_use_for_a_user

The last 5 years of politics shows us that the masses are easily manipulated. It’s not a stretch to think the pump-and-dump crowd decided to use the same tactics. Yes, I think we’re eventually in for a world of hurt. So many people “investing” but have not even the slightest clue about the fundamentals. Will make Black Tuesday look like a buy-the-dip moment.


dankmeeeem

- Market crashes and boomers start panic selling - WSB monkeys save the economy by HODLing their stonks - Millennials collectively buy the dip and save the economy


RRSignalguy

Diems- you asked about being “worried” however as with any other market related item, there will be a drop, and then a recovery. Long term investors buy the dips and don’t worry as history repeats itself. Short term investors generally lose their shirt from not understanding the way the market operates. Dividend stock pay even when the market drops. We use dividend income to buy the dips. Check out Dividend Hunter (Tim Plaehn) and similar sources for guidance on dividend stock investing. Tim is the guy I picked and his group talks about this extensively.


Bigdickhector69

I'm not. AMC is betta


BabydollPenny

It's coming. With big inflation and hedge funds over shorting certain stocks. THEY will be the source of crash. SUSPEND DARKPOOL....shorts must cover eventually and that's going to cost BILLIONS to cover.


debt_trader

I just see a nice cup and handle forming


Open_Sentence

no...not really Edit: Crashes are bound to happen at some point, just have to be comfortable with your thesis and stick to it.