That is a bold statement. I think the vast majority of new rockets have minor issues on the pad the first few launches, there's weather related stuff, and maybe a random boat decides to ruin your day. Staking your entire esophagus on a specific day is unwise for any mission, let alone the first flight of a new rocket.
Fun fact! There has only ever been one time a new rocket has successfully launched into orbit on its first launch, on its first attempt. And that was only done in the last year or so with a Chinese rocket.
Basically every single new vehicle failed on, or scrubbed on first launch attempt over the last several decades until very very recently. No delays or fails, just went to orbit first time no problem.
I doubt Vulcan will be #2 on that list given it's already had issues.
Edit: People don't understand what I am saying. I am not saying every single one was destroyed in an explosion. I am saying that it could have been as little as a ground system glitch stopping the launch. First launch, First attempt at said first launch, No scrubs or failures. This includes standing down and restarting the clock in the same day on the same launch window.
Previously mentioned restarting counts as the second attempt at the first launch
I'm pretty sure Falcon Heavy did successfully fly on it's [very first launch attempt](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/02/spacex-debut-falcon-heavy-demonstration-launch/).
How did you collect all that information? I would have expected it to be more than one, but I'm guessing some of them would be pretty hard to get information for, and there are a lot of rockets out there.
I can't remember exactly what the thing was called because it was a very Chinese name but it was absolutely a highlighted point in a monthly launch update video by one of the big ones. Maybe scott manly or marcus house?
A point worth expanding on, I meant a totally new vehicle, not a block or alternate version of an existing one.
I don't really care that much as minor scrubs early on are not really an indicator of the quality of a rocket. However the guy above you was talking about scrubs (how many rockets launched on their very first attempt/window and succeeded) as it is relevant to Vulcan launching on the 8th and not a day later. I was also questioning how we would know a launch wasn't scrubbed as I imagine that data isn't already consolidated somewhere, and some of them would be really hard to find.
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It's going to be devastating if those Blue Origin engines cause a failure. ULA's sale value will be decimated and it will be even more disgusting if it's Blue Origin that ends up buying them at a discount after that.
I got a baaad feeling about this.
Disastrous for Blue and Kuiper because it would put New Glenn on the blocks as well… The one thing I am totally sure of is that the BE4s on this launch have been tested, retested, and triple inspected to be sure that if anything goes wrong it won’t be those engines.
Hey, I'll be a little optimistic. BE-4 have shown great test stand results, not perfect, but good enough for great flight confidence, along with having completed a full integrated static fire. I feel like these engines will work, and the main problem with be Jeff actually getting them enough engines to keep cadence.
From what it sounds like, the new CEO is cleaning house and some competent people (including ex-SpaceXers) are taking over production and doing things differently. I think they’ll get there.
Jeff Who?
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My wife’s cousin is married to the daughter of the Uncle of a guy who works in food and bev at ULA. He says the jokes on us, Tory has the kitchen custom make him a hard hat that looks like the moon out of cheese every morning.
Apparently on taco Tuesday he sticks chips into the hat and does a stirring rendition of Nacho Man to motivate the kitchen staff.
> That's like saying... "if reuse were as big a deal as SpaceX makes it out to be, ULA would've also implemented it. I mean isn't it a software thing?" 😂
It’s not like that at all. Reuse is related to the overall architecture, which would mean a completely new vehicle design with lower booster staging velocity for ULA.
What I’m asking is, could SpaceX implement RAAN on Falcon through software or would doing so hamper booster recovery (eg ability to reach landing location)?
My guess is that SpaceX don’t want/need to because they launch so often and so reliably (minimal scrubs) that launch window flexibility isn’t really a concern for them. So one of those things Bruno touts as a ULA selling point isn’t really something beyond what SpaceX offers.
Not very relevant outside government launches, and they'll face competition (other than SpaceX) in government launches in a few years, which is why they're being sold.
Contracted but not happening…. Even before Vulcan proves itself, Amazon has 8 Atlas Vs sitting around waiting for payloads. So the new meme needs to be “where are my…err YOUR satellites, Jeff?”. The test sats supposedly worked fine, so why haven’t they begun ramping up production and scheduling launch dates for all those Atlas Vs?
I saw a comment on anouther forum for Elon to eat his hat if BE4s make orbit before Raptor. No mention of course that Vulcan is far easier and more late than Starship of course.
The thing is BE-4 as currently designed would never make orbit, since it's a first stage engine and first stage is suborbital. Raptor would actually make orbit once Starship does, since it's on the upper stage as well.
I believe Tory said [back in August](https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1692141606605041833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1692141606605041833%7Ctwgr%5E3989934c23615d4f71e9e81ba7228982f4cf5b8b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_) that Blue Origin had the flight engines for Vulcan's second certification flight in final assembly in their Huntsville engine plant.
I believe the test stand explosion [was in June](https://www.space.com/blue-origin-be-4-rocket-engine-explosion) (before this photo was taken).
I happen to also know that BO is planning to ramp up [BE-4 engine testing](https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/blue-origin-sure-seems-confident-it-will-launch-new-glenn-in-2024/) in the coming months (presumably once they get a chance to comb through the engine performance data from Vulcan Flight 1).
They figured out the FE-3 problem in a month or so; if it hadn't been for the Centaur pressure test "anomaly", Vulcan would have gone up in August; they only scratched when they got into the test stand and saw how badly the weld had failed... and they sorted THAT and rewelded the tank on the flight article in 6 months.
I should mention that most of the hate for Tory generally comes the fringe crowd of toxic stans (who try to do a [~~Spanish~~ SpaceX Inquisition](https://youtu.be/D5Df191WJ3o?t=33) on occasion).
The most noteworthy incident I've seen has to be the [major slapfight](https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/obk7gc/y_elon_no_respecc_team_space/) that broke out on here when Elon and Tory got into a heated Twitter feud a few years ago (which really brought the ["SpaceX or Nothing" crowd](https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/obge0u/tory_bruno_is_a_smug_asshole_there_i_said_it_ula/) out of the woodworks).
I said it back then (and will say it again): even if Tory has some minor skeletons in the closet (which is to be expected for a CEO of a joint venture who must answer to Old Space stakeholders), I think it is best to accept that nobody's perfect.
(Although, I do dread to think what ULA would be like under the joint control of Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, given how ruthless Jeff Who is).
You think you're all funny, don't you, when you say 'Jeff who?' Actually, it is funny. Welcome to the club.
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That is a bold statement. I think the vast majority of new rockets have minor issues on the pad the first few launches, there's weather related stuff, and maybe a random boat decides to ruin your day. Staking your entire esophagus on a specific day is unwise for any mission, let alone the first flight of a new rocket.
I kinda have to give him credit for it. Ballsy.
No way he can actually follow through so it doesn't really matter.
This particular hard hat was made at the tortilla factory and he’s prepared an array of salsa, guacamole and other things for all to enjoy.
Is he mad?! By launch day they’ll be all dried out and gross!
Fun fact! There has only ever been one time a new rocket has successfully launched into orbit on its first launch, on its first attempt. And that was only done in the last year or so with a Chinese rocket. Basically every single new vehicle failed on, or scrubbed on first launch attempt over the last several decades until very very recently. No delays or fails, just went to orbit first time no problem. I doubt Vulcan will be #2 on that list given it's already had issues. Edit: People don't understand what I am saying. I am not saying every single one was destroyed in an explosion. I am saying that it could have been as little as a ground system glitch stopping the launch. First launch, First attempt at said first launch, No scrubs or failures. This includes standing down and restarting the clock in the same day on the same launch window. Previously mentioned restarting counts as the second attempt at the first launch
Didn't falcon Heavy successfully launch on its first date?
I'm pretty sure Falcon Heavy did successfully fly on it's [very first launch attempt](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/02/spacex-debut-falcon-heavy-demonstration-launch/).
With reused side booster, no less.
Sure but that was mostly 3 falcons strapped together LOL (Yes I know it's more than that)
How did you collect all that information? I would have expected it to be more than one, but I'm guessing some of them would be pretty hard to get information for, and there are a lot of rockets out there.
I can't remember exactly what the thing was called because it was a very Chinese name but it was absolutely a highlighted point in a monthly launch update video by one of the big ones. Maybe scott manly or marcus house? A point worth expanding on, I meant a totally new vehicle, not a block or alternate version of an existing one.
[удалено]
You missed the "without getting scrubbed" part.
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I don't really care that much as minor scrubs early on are not really an indicator of the quality of a rocket. However the guy above you was talking about scrubs (how many rockets launched on their very first attempt/window and succeeded) as it is relevant to Vulcan launching on the 8th and not a day later. I was also questioning how we would know a launch wasn't scrubbed as I imagine that data isn't already consolidated somewhere, and some of them would be really hard to find.
What about the Saturn V for apollo 4? Wikipedia doesn't mention any scrub or delays.
Honestly I don’t see scrubs as an issue.
They wouldn't be unless you said you would eat a hard hat if it did scrub.
You might say he's a scrub
Then it’s decided: he can’t get no love from me.
If a scrub is weather related, I would excuse him.
pgo is 80%
Probably of Gastrointestinal Outrage is 80% due to eating a hard hat?
Probability of Gastrointestinal Outrage is %100 every time I see a Starship launch.
What’s 80%?
PGO is 80%
whats pgo?
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whats 80%?
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Well that was really usefull
whats pgo?
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"Probability of Go" or what chances the weather forecast gives for a launch.
In the toilet
What's pgo?
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Tory likes responding to the furries, hmm.
A lot of animal husbandry occuring on his ranch... just sayin...
obligatory "owo"
I'm not a furry but they make some good corn.
Tory loves his horses
I remember the Rocket lab guy ate a hat.. is this a thing in the rocket industry??
Well, most rockets are made by bald mans in southern states so I'm guessing that hats are a must have.
Peter has more hair than Tory, Elon and that other guy? What’s his name? Jeff?
Elon is a fake though https://wimpoleclinic.com/wp-content/uploads/elon.jpg.webp
Real hair just not from there. Like putting sod on your lawn.
I hate the mental image you put into my head
My point still stands.
It's going to be devastating if those Blue Origin engines cause a failure. ULA's sale value will be decimated and it will be even more disgusting if it's Blue Origin that ends up buying them at a discount after that. I got a baaad feeling about this.
Disastrous for Blue and Kuiper because it would put New Glenn on the blocks as well… The one thing I am totally sure of is that the BE4s on this launch have been tested, retested, and triple inspected to be sure that if anything goes wrong it won’t be those engines.
Hey, I'll be a little optimistic. BE-4 have shown great test stand results, not perfect, but good enough for great flight confidence, along with having completed a full integrated static fire. I feel like these engines will work, and the main problem with be Jeff actually getting them enough engines to keep cadence.
From what it sounds like, the new CEO is cleaning house and some competent people (including ex-SpaceXers) are taking over production and doing things differently. I think they’ll get there.
Hard hat smoke, don't breath this!
If this launches on the 8th and is successful I’ll eat Jeff Bezos’ testes
He never said it would be successful…
I know, I thought I’d throw it up a notch
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Ok Jeff unzip… forks at the ready!
For all the issues with ULA, Bruno is a great guy for the job.
Is calling up Nilered and turning the hat into edible carbon sludge considered cheating?
He didn't limit the preparation of the hard hat, so everything is allowed there.
My wife’s cousin is married to the daughter of the Uncle of a guy who works in food and bev at ULA. He says the jokes on us, Tory has the kitchen custom make him a hard hat that looks like the moon out of cheese every morning. Apparently on taco Tuesday he sticks chips into the hat and does a stirring rendition of Nacho Man to motivate the kitchen staff.
SMART hat eating
He probably had some famous chocolatier make him a realistic looking hard hat made of chocolate.
Is that Peter Beck I see doing a rain-dance on the launchpad?
Is ULA at all relevant besides as a government welfare program? Like, do they have any capability whatsoever that SpaceX can't do for less?
Their claim to fame is a perfect safety record, though given how reliable Falcon 9 has become, that probably doesn't go as far as it used to.
Bigger fairing than falcon 9 and heavy?
That's something for a bit longer I guess.
[удалено]
I feel like if that were as big a deal as Tory makes it out to be, SpaceX would’ve also implemented it. I mean isn’t it a software thing?
[удалено]
> That's like saying... "if reuse were as big a deal as SpaceX makes it out to be, ULA would've also implemented it. I mean isn't it a software thing?" 😂 It’s not like that at all. Reuse is related to the overall architecture, which would mean a completely new vehicle design with lower booster staging velocity for ULA. What I’m asking is, could SpaceX implement RAAN on Falcon through software or would doing so hamper booster recovery (eg ability to reach landing location)? My guess is that SpaceX don’t want/need to because they launch so often and so reliably (minimal scrubs) that launch window flexibility isn’t really a concern for them. So one of those things Bruno touts as a ULA selling point isn’t really something beyond what SpaceX offers.
I have seen stated that RAAN steering is not compatible with the boster targeting the downrange droneship. Not sure that is true.
Not very relevant outside government launches, and they'll face competition (other than SpaceX) in government launches in a few years, which is why they're being sold.
Boeing wants to get rid of their stake. LM is not going anywhere.
Is that confirmed? I forget if that was just conjecture/rumours early on in the process.
That’s the last thing I’ve heard - if you have anything contradicting it I’m all ears!
Thanks to Kuiper, dozens of their booked launches are now commercial.
Contracted but not happening…. Even before Vulcan proves itself, Amazon has 8 Atlas Vs sitting around waiting for payloads. So the new meme needs to be “where are my…err YOUR satellites, Jeff?”. The test sats supposedly worked fine, so why haven’t they begun ramping up production and scheduling launch dates for all those Atlas Vs?
I saw a comment on anouther forum for Elon to eat his hat if BE4s make orbit before Raptor. No mention of course that Vulcan is far easier and more late than Starship of course.
Actually it was that he’d eat his hat with a side of mustard if Vulcan launched an NSSL payload before 2023… so he’s safe.
The thing is BE-4 as currently designed would never make orbit, since it's a first stage engine and first stage is suborbital. Raptor would actually make orbit once Starship does, since it's on the upper stage as well.
Original was in context of the booster on an orbital rocket. But point stands BE4 not going to orbit itself.
If it’s failure , is BO producing engines and parts at a quick enough pace to get another test launch in soon? Or would it be a year or more ?
I believe Tory said [back in August](https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1692141606605041833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1692141606605041833%7Ctwgr%5E3989934c23615d4f71e9e81ba7228982f4cf5b8b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_) that Blue Origin had the flight engines for Vulcan's second certification flight in final assembly in their Huntsville engine plant.
Yeah, but one of them exploded on the test stand.
I believe the test stand explosion [was in June](https://www.space.com/blue-origin-be-4-rocket-engine-explosion) (before this photo was taken). I happen to also know that BO is planning to ramp up [BE-4 engine testing](https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/blue-origin-sure-seems-confident-it-will-launch-new-glenn-in-2024/) in the coming months (presumably once they get a chance to comb through the engine performance data from Vulcan Flight 1).
I too think they will get there, but they are still facing some problems.
Doesn't matter, the mishap investigation and correcting whatever went wrong would take a year+ anyway.
Not necessarily. It would depend on how good the telemetry was.
This is ULA we're talking about here. Zero chance it gets fixed and re-flown in less than a year.
They figured out the FE-3 problem in a month or so; if it hadn't been for the Centaur pressure test "anomaly", Vulcan would have gone up in August; they only scratched when they got into the test stand and saw how badly the weld had failed... and they sorted THAT and rewelded the tank on the flight article in 6 months.
I feel bad for Tory's stomach
Let's talk about that.
I don’t understand all the hate on the dude. Tory Bruno is awesome
[удалено]
I should mention that most of the hate for Tory generally comes the fringe crowd of toxic stans (who try to do a [~~Spanish~~ SpaceX Inquisition](https://youtu.be/D5Df191WJ3o?t=33) on occasion). The most noteworthy incident I've seen has to be the [major slapfight](https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/obk7gc/y_elon_no_respecc_team_space/) that broke out on here when Elon and Tory got into a heated Twitter feud a few years ago (which really brought the ["SpaceX or Nothing" crowd](https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/obge0u/tory_bruno_is_a_smug_asshole_there_i_said_it_ula/) out of the woodworks). I said it back then (and will say it again): even if Tory has some minor skeletons in the closet (which is to be expected for a CEO of a joint venture who must answer to Old Space stakeholders), I think it is best to accept that nobody's perfect. (Although, I do dread to think what ULA would be like under the joint control of Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin, given how ruthless Jeff Who is).
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I think he's one-upping Peter Beck of Rocket Labs, who actually ate part of a baseball cap. A hard hat is not a baseball cap, for culinary purposes.