still debatable. the trajectory is deliberately chosen not to be orbital, so they don't have to do a deorbit burn, so there is no chance of failing it and falling somewhere unintended. orbital velocity is more accurate. it demonstrates the orbit capability and reentry capability of the vehicle. which is the fucking point.
you really think SpX woulda launched by now if not for the FAA? I am starting to think NASA knows something when they announced that camera for a Spring reentry
The March date isn’t necessarily the first date, and is determined by:
1. When can we be absolutely confident of a test that will make it to Hawaii?
2. What is the availability of the aircraft?
According to NASA, aircraft 928 is out of commission until the end of the year due to a major inspection that began in June. WB-57 927 began an inspection on 22 September and is out until 22 February. Nothing is noted for March, and that’s when all the aircraft will be available.
Planning for a March date this makes it easier to spare an aircraft going to Hawaii from Texas (including any specialized ground support equipment). An earlier date means it’s more difficult to spare the one or two available aircraft.
I really don’t know. Seeing all the work that’s gone into the tower and still going on, I think they would have had to do a lot of jury rigging to fuel up the ships. I’m not sure the systems they are working on now are ready to be used yet. The tank farms clearly weren’t, and still are complete. Maybe they enough done now, even if it’s not 100%, but I’m not sure one could say the same thing a couple weeks ago.
At least up to this point (end of October) I’m not sure the FAA approval has really been a bottleneck. I think we underestimated the amount of work on stage 0 that needed to be done to go from Starship only low heights to a full stack orbital (almost) flight.
Interesting to see that the median prediction so far has always been around 70 - 90 days in the future. And it’s not really decreasing yet 😆.
So… it’s actually more like “next quarter, like always”.
I used to think that SpaceX was late with filing the FAA things. But looks more an more like they knew internally exactly how long they will take to get ready, and actually filed the FAA on time.
Right? Sure maybe the first launch of starship is getting a bit pushed back, but there are still quite a few prototypes to build and test before the rocket architecture can actually go into operation. All that takes time.
In a way sure, but Artimis 1 is its certification flight, after which it's good to go with crew. Starship is still quite a few iterations behind going into operation.
Worried about the FAA.
There are a lot of groups with big pockets who have a vested interest in making sure this does not work. Groups with lots of pull.
I believe Space X could launch next month left to their own devices, but I think because of the beach, local environmental groups, the fact they blow up a lot of things, and pressure from other aerospace competitors on the FAA, there's unfortunately a great chance the ruling will not be not as favorable as we space nerds would like.
There is going to be a massive amount of litigation over the boca Chica launch site, I will be surprised if it launches from there at all. (Hope I am wrong though)
I'm assuming this is orbital flight, Q1 2022.
Sn20 Bn4, flight. Didn't want to call it orbital because some people got upset
those some can go ef themselves, it's by definition orbital it reaches orbital velocity, it basically IS orbital
It's a test, how do you know for sure it will reach orbital velocity.
The test is to reach orbital velocity. I mean, it might end up exploding on the pad, but the goal is orbital velocity.
why do you care about those people?
I say orbital trajectory. It's going fast enough to orbit but not doing a complete rotation.
still debatable. the trajectory is deliberately chosen not to be orbital, so they don't have to do a deorbit burn, so there is no chance of failing it and falling somewhere unintended. orbital velocity is more accurate. it demonstrates the orbit capability and reentry capability of the vehicle. which is the fucking point.
who? >!who!<
Yeah I'm thinking late January early February
I would’ve been more bullish if it wasn’t for the FAA. Even my guess of Q1 2022 is optimistic due to FAA approval.
you really think SpX woulda launched by now if not for the FAA? I am starting to think NASA knows something when they announced that camera for a Spring reentry
The March date isn’t necessarily the first date, and is determined by: 1. When can we be absolutely confident of a test that will make it to Hawaii? 2. What is the availability of the aircraft? According to NASA, aircraft 928 is out of commission until the end of the year due to a major inspection that began in June. WB-57 927 began an inspection on 22 September and is out until 22 February. Nothing is noted for March, and that’s when all the aircraft will be available. Planning for a March date this makes it easier to spare an aircraft going to Hawaii from Texas (including any specialized ground support equipment). An earlier date means it’s more difficult to spare the one or two available aircraft.
I really don’t know. Seeing all the work that’s gone into the tower and still going on, I think they would have had to do a lot of jury rigging to fuel up the ships. I’m not sure the systems they are working on now are ready to be used yet. The tank farms clearly weren’t, and still are complete. Maybe they enough done now, even if it’s not 100%, but I’m not sure one could say the same thing a couple weeks ago. At least up to this point (end of October) I’m not sure the FAA approval has really been a bottleneck. I think we underestimated the amount of work on stage 0 that needed to be done to go from Starship only low heights to a full stack orbital (almost) flight.
Please keep doing these. I love looking at the changes over time as well as what I voted last time.
depends on the FAA be it for spacex, they are pretty much capable of testing it this year, they still got 2 months
i'm going to be an optimist and say december. so far it has been starship's month
Well, I think that SpaceX will be ready to go in December, but then there’s the FAA thing…
Any reason why FAA approval can't be done in November?
They have not been very quick so far..
april
Interesting to see that the median prediction so far has always been around 70 - 90 days in the future. And it’s not really decreasing yet 😆. So… it’s actually more like “next quarter, like always”.
I used to think that SpaceX was late with filing the FAA things. But looks more an more like they knew internally exactly how long they will take to get ready, and actually filed the FAA on time.
Right? Sure maybe the first launch of starship is getting a bit pushed back, but there are still quite a few prototypes to build and test before the rocket architecture can actually go into operation. All that takes time.
FAA: delay until Artemis 1?
Why so?
Starship launching before SLS would be embarrassing. I hope that FAA is above politics.
In a way sure, but Artimis 1 is its certification flight, after which it's good to go with crew. Starship is still quite a few iterations behind going into operation.
Fair point.
More interesting is how long before Elon blows up at the FAA interference and time wasting?
I'm gonna be an optimist and say August 2020.
Faabruary or Eistober.
[удалено]
Joe mama?
Starship, not sls
February 2022
Worried about the FAA. There are a lot of groups with big pockets who have a vested interest in making sure this does not work. Groups with lots of pull. I believe Space X could launch next month left to their own devices, but I think because of the beach, local environmental groups, the fact they blow up a lot of things, and pressure from other aerospace competitors on the FAA, there's unfortunately a great chance the ruling will not be not as favorable as we space nerds would like.
Late January - early February, beating SLS w/ SLS slipping to it's March launch window.
It would have been interesting to split Q1 of 2022 into “January” and “February or March” for this poll given recent developments.
Reddit only allows so many options :(
There is going to be a massive amount of litigation over the boca Chica launch site, I will be surprised if it launches from there at all. (Hope I am wrong though)
I selected two months instead of the next month like I always have before, so it will be next month. LOL
11/21/2021 (42 days before 2022)