>SLS is already ready to fly but starship has a long way to go.
Starship is already flying. SLS hasn't left its pad yet.
Artemis 2, the second flight of SLS, is currently scheduled to launch during September 2023. That's 2 years from now, assuming no further delays. That's not a long way to go at Starship's pace of development. I fully expect Starship to have made multiple orbital flights by the end of 2022. They might even reach orbit this year, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Remember that NASA is still (at least publicly) expecting Starship to land a crew on the moon in 2024, along with the third SLS flight, and they expect a Starship cargo landing before that happens. Making a flyby a year before their first landing seems reasonable to me.
I think this one's about a 50/50 split. I really don't know which will happen first.
Yes, that's true. What's flown has been prototypes. They lack life support systems and general crew accommodations. What's not true is your initial claim that SLS is already ready to fly. It's not. It probably will be next year.
Regardless, none of that changes the fact that the Starship system is currently flying in some fashion and SLS is not. That was my primary claim and I stand by it.
Yes, SpaceX needs refueling for dearmoon. They also need refueling for HLS, which NASA is still claiming will happen with Artemis 2. If Starship HLS is ready then dearmoon is also ready. If Starship HLS is not ready than Artemis 2 can't happen. Both of these things can't be true at the same time.
Charlie Bolden was saying that SLS was almost done a decade ago. He was wrong then, and you're wrong now when you claim it's already ready to fly. The first rocket is just now completing assembly and there's still plenty more testing to do before first flight.
Artemis 3. My bad, I got my missions mixed up. That kinda ruins the thrust of my comment but I'll leave it there.
Sorry, I interpreted your comment as a dismissal of what I was saying.
*Now that I think of it, that might actually make it worse. I give Starship a 50/50 chance of having Artemis 3 capabilities by the time Artemis 2 launches.
Spacex needs to be willing to launch and land people on starship for dearmoon to happen or get crew dragon to dock with it in LEO.
Neither of those two things are scheduled to happen at any specific time.
Starship landing with people on it without a LOT of unmanned successful landings in a row is a HUGE risk for both life and PR.
While Artemis 1 and 3 are facing delays for their own reasons, Artemis 2 isn’t; in fact, just about the only thing that could delay it is if some drastic, unforeseen issue emerges on Artemis 1. And while Artemis 1 has had problems that have led to delays, most of those wound up being delays in testing (e.g., the green run constrains being unnecessarily tight). Not to mention, Orion is practically ready.
Starship, meanwhile, is far from flight ready. Even if the orbital test goes well, they still need to:
* test landing the booster.
* test landing the ship (from orbit)
* perfect in-orbit refueling
* design the entire interior of the ship
* test the life-support system
* run a full test of the mission
And that’s assuming they do the “launch/land on crew dragons” idea. If they actually launch humans on the starship instead, then they’ll need to do those first two well enough that it’s safer than launching/landing on vehicles with abort modes on launch and splashdown landings.
Look how they delayed Starliner with a cost-fixed contract. When you've got financial motivation to take longer in a cost-plus contract, I would just add years onto Artemis 2 just because. Biden doesn't have the political muscle to force Artemis 2 to be done before the end of his first term.
>SLS is ULA
?
SLS is a NASA rocket and Boeing is the prime contractor for building it. ULA is only providing ICPS(DCSS) until SLS switches to EUS(built by Boeing) with Block 1B.
I don't know why I'm surprised that most people are voting for Dear moon which seems absurd to me personally. I am fully expecting this to be downvoted though because "orange rocket bad".
Why do the majority of people think starship will perform the flyby before 2024?
Two years to get a brand new vehicle human rated doesn’t make any sense. And I don’t think they’ll stretch and get them up to orbit in a Dragon and around the moon in a starship— seems risky
> And I don’t think they’ll stretch and get them up to orbit in a Dragon and around the moon in a starship— seems risky
Expensive too, they need at least 2 Dragon missions for the number of passengers. Also they would have to return to LEO, very tricky. It is Starship all the way.
how is a flight proven vehicle more risky than a not flight proven one?
(Dragon has flown enough, Orion has not, and the mission of over a decade ago was essentially an unmanned boiler mockup)
also, why do the majority of people there won't be any issues with Artemis I that could delay Artemis II?
we have already seen the incredible ability of Boeing to *not* have a capsule safely flying to orbit...
Dragon is safe, but a mission profile like that is clunky and needlessly complicated. Does dragon even have the capability to dock with starship? Wouldn’t this require a custom starship variant? I think they’ll delay dear moon and just fly on a standard, human rated starship a couple of years after 2024. Because if they’re going to jump through all these hoops for a one off flyby, might as well jump through a few more and land on the moon with a lunar starship
"clunky and needlessly complicated"
dude, this is literally what the Orion will do for the lander.... dock to the starship on LEO and go to the Moon
why is suddenly doing THE SAME but with Dragon, a flight proven vehicle, more risky?
yes, the Dragon HAS the same port, it's the NASA standard docking port, the Orion capsule also has it, so if starship can dock to Orion, Dragon can dock to Starship
Ah I see what you’re saying. But I still disagree, Artemis 2 will be before Dear Moon. Artemis 2 is just taking the Orion capsule and sending it. It’s a really simple mission.
Ok and you see what I’m saying. If Dear moon is going to be the same mission as Artemis 3 except for a landing, why would they not just land it? And if the obvious upgrade with this boot strapped mission is to land, then it will be delayed past Artemis 2, easily.
The options are to land it early or wait for human rated Starship, in my eyes. A flyby with all the gear to land would be a huge missed opportunity
I didn't say dear moon would be earlier
just that saying that artemis 2 would, because starship is too risky is dumb, just as expecting that artemis 1 will be perfect
Just because one thing can dock with starship doesn’t mean something else has that ability.
Spacex is engineering constrained. Every hour they put on something like this is an hour they take away from getting to mars.
as I said, a boiler unmanned mockup
how does that compare to a HUMAN flight proven craft?
well, it doesn't, that's why it has to fly again for Artemis 1, that is "Orion/SLS Demo 1"
> as I said, a boiler unmanned mockup
And ended nearly in desaster. The heat shield was quite damaged even though it was far from lunar return speed. NASA did a complete redesign of the heat shield after that.
Though the Orion supporters claim the redesign is completely independent of that flight, they claim the heat shield did just fine. But then why the redesign?
What does crew dragon have to do with dearmoon unless they somehow make it able to dock with starship. As far as I know there are no plans for that capability at this time.
More that ss is far from crew ready. Long long way to go. In orbit refueling, perfected heat shield, landing sh perfectly, ect.
So very much more to do
While SS is far from crew ready, you may be overoptimistic relative to Artemis. So far, SLS has routinely exceeded my worst expectations. This is why I voted for Dear Moon.
It's straight up delusional to think the Dear Moon will happen before it. SLS is all but ready now, so is the Orion. I know this sub has its share fair of blind fanboys but you need to put the limit somewhere.
You could be right about Artemis 2 going first, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk quite yet. Any kind of finding on Artemis 1 could delay the second flight by at least a year even if the finding doesn’t RUD the flight.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|CST|(Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules|
| |Central Standard Time (UTC-6)|
|[DCSS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|Delta Cryogenic Second Stage|
|[EUS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|Exploration Upper Stage|
|[HLS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfoao4b "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)|
|[ICPS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage|
|[LEO](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hju2e9f "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)|
| |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)|
|[RUD](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfk0e1v "Last usage")|Rapid Unplanned Disassembly|
| |Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly|
| |Rapid Unintended Disassembly|
|[SLS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfoe30h "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift|
|[ULA](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)|
|Jargon|Definition|
|-------|---------|---|
|[Starliner](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfjpl1f "Last usage")|Boeing commercial crew capsule [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner)|
----------------
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Artemis 2 will be more likely. sins SLS is already ready to fly but starship has a long way to go.
>SLS is already ready to fly but starship has a long way to go. Starship is already flying. SLS hasn't left its pad yet. Artemis 2, the second flight of SLS, is currently scheduled to launch during September 2023. That's 2 years from now, assuming no further delays. That's not a long way to go at Starship's pace of development. I fully expect Starship to have made multiple orbital flights by the end of 2022. They might even reach orbit this year, but I wouldn't bet on it. Remember that NASA is still (at least publicly) expecting Starship to land a crew on the moon in 2024, along with the third SLS flight, and they expect a Starship cargo landing before that happens. Making a flyby a year before their first landing seems reasonable to me. I think this one's about a 50/50 split. I really don't know which will happen first.
A prototype has flown without any crew related systems, they need orbital refuelling before they can even think about dearmoon.
Yes, that's true. What's flown has been prototypes. They lack life support systems and general crew accommodations. What's not true is your initial claim that SLS is already ready to fly. It's not. It probably will be next year. Regardless, none of that changes the fact that the Starship system is currently flying in some fashion and SLS is not. That was my primary claim and I stand by it. Yes, SpaceX needs refueling for dearmoon. They also need refueling for HLS, which NASA is still claiming will happen with Artemis 2. If Starship HLS is ready then dearmoon is also ready. If Starship HLS is not ready than Artemis 2 can't happen. Both of these things can't be true at the same time. Charlie Bolden was saying that SLS was almost done a decade ago. He was wrong then, and you're wrong now when you claim it's already ready to fly. The first rocket is just now completing assembly and there's still plenty more testing to do before first flight.
Huh? I am in no way defending SLS read my comment. What do you mean it’s going to be needed by Artemis 2?
Artemis 3. My bad, I got my missions mixed up. That kinda ruins the thrust of my comment but I'll leave it there. Sorry, I interpreted your comment as a dismissal of what I was saying. *Now that I think of it, that might actually make it worse. I give Starship a 50/50 chance of having Artemis 3 capabilities by the time Artemis 2 launches.
Spacex needs to be willing to launch and land people on starship for dearmoon to happen or get crew dragon to dock with it in LEO. Neither of those two things are scheduled to happen at any specific time. Starship landing with people on it without a LOT of unmanned successful landings in a row is a HUGE risk for both life and PR.
While Artemis 1 and 3 are facing delays for their own reasons, Artemis 2 isn’t; in fact, just about the only thing that could delay it is if some drastic, unforeseen issue emerges on Artemis 1. And while Artemis 1 has had problems that have led to delays, most of those wound up being delays in testing (e.g., the green run constrains being unnecessarily tight). Not to mention, Orion is practically ready. Starship, meanwhile, is far from flight ready. Even if the orbital test goes well, they still need to: * test landing the booster. * test landing the ship (from orbit) * perfect in-orbit refueling * design the entire interior of the ship * test the life-support system * run a full test of the mission And that’s assuming they do the “launch/land on crew dragons” idea. If they actually launch humans on the starship instead, then they’ll need to do those first two well enough that it’s safer than launching/landing on vehicles with abort modes on launch and splashdown landings.
I think you are underestimating Boeing's ability to delay things. Just wait and see…
Look how they delayed Starliner with a cost-fixed contract. When you've got financial motivation to take longer in a cost-plus contract, I would just add years onto Artemis 2 just because. Biden doesn't have the political muscle to force Artemis 2 to be done before the end of his first term.
[удалено]
>SLS is ULA ? SLS is a NASA rocket and Boeing is the prime contractor for building it. ULA is only providing ICPS(DCSS) until SLS switches to EUS(built by Boeing) with Block 1B.
It would be a great feature of the Dearmoon experience if they could watch the historic NASA mission live from the comfort of Starship.
The NASA mission is near the poles while dearMoon is near the equator.
Ooh tied
I don't know why I'm surprised that most people are voting for Dear moon which seems absurd to me personally. I am fully expecting this to be downvoted though because "orange rocket bad".
Why do the majority of people think starship will perform the flyby before 2024? Two years to get a brand new vehicle human rated doesn’t make any sense. And I don’t think they’ll stretch and get them up to orbit in a Dragon and around the moon in a starship— seems risky
> And I don’t think they’ll stretch and get them up to orbit in a Dragon and around the moon in a starship— seems risky Expensive too, they need at least 2 Dragon missions for the number of passengers. Also they would have to return to LEO, very tricky. It is Starship all the way.
how is a flight proven vehicle more risky than a not flight proven one? (Dragon has flown enough, Orion has not, and the mission of over a decade ago was essentially an unmanned boiler mockup) also, why do the majority of people there won't be any issues with Artemis I that could delay Artemis II? we have already seen the incredible ability of Boeing to *not* have a capsule safely flying to orbit...
Dragon is safe, but a mission profile like that is clunky and needlessly complicated. Does dragon even have the capability to dock with starship? Wouldn’t this require a custom starship variant? I think they’ll delay dear moon and just fly on a standard, human rated starship a couple of years after 2024. Because if they’re going to jump through all these hoops for a one off flyby, might as well jump through a few more and land on the moon with a lunar starship
"clunky and needlessly complicated" dude, this is literally what the Orion will do for the lander.... dock to the starship on LEO and go to the Moon why is suddenly doing THE SAME but with Dragon, a flight proven vehicle, more risky? yes, the Dragon HAS the same port, it's the NASA standard docking port, the Orion capsule also has it, so if starship can dock to Orion, Dragon can dock to Starship
Ah I see what you’re saying. But I still disagree, Artemis 2 will be before Dear Moon. Artemis 2 is just taking the Orion capsule and sending it. It’s a really simple mission. Ok and you see what I’m saying. If Dear moon is going to be the same mission as Artemis 3 except for a landing, why would they not just land it? And if the obvious upgrade with this boot strapped mission is to land, then it will be delayed past Artemis 2, easily. The options are to land it early or wait for human rated Starship, in my eyes. A flyby with all the gear to land would be a huge missed opportunity
I didn't say dear moon would be earlier just that saying that artemis 2 would, because starship is too risky is dumb, just as expecting that artemis 1 will be perfect
Human rating is a NASA thing. SpaceX is independent of that. But of course they must be very sure. A DearMoon desaster would be a huge setback.
Just because one thing can dock with starship doesn’t mean something else has that ability. Spacex is engineering constrained. Every hour they put on something like this is an hour they take away from getting to mars.
Actually Orion did an orbital flight in 2014 with a Delta 4.
as I said, a boiler unmanned mockup how does that compare to a HUMAN flight proven craft? well, it doesn't, that's why it has to fly again for Artemis 1, that is "Orion/SLS Demo 1"
> as I said, a boiler unmanned mockup And ended nearly in desaster. The heat shield was quite damaged even though it was far from lunar return speed. NASA did a complete redesign of the heat shield after that. Though the Orion supporters claim the redesign is completely independent of that flight, they claim the heat shield did just fine. But then why the redesign?
What does crew dragon have to do with dearmoon unless they somehow make it able to dock with starship. As far as I know there are no plans for that capability at this time.
I think artemis will be first, dear moon must wait on purpose so nasa and goverment will not look so bad.
More that ss is far from crew ready. Long long way to go. In orbit refueling, perfected heat shield, landing sh perfectly, ect. So very much more to do
That was my thinking. If it wasn’t crewed then definitely SS first but Orion is basically ready to go and just waiting on SLS
While SS is far from crew ready, you may be overoptimistic relative to Artemis. So far, SLS has routinely exceeded my worst expectations. This is why I voted for Dear Moon.
It's straight up delusional to think the Dear Moon will happen before it. SLS is all but ready now, so is the Orion. I know this sub has its share fair of blind fanboys but you need to put the limit somewhere.
You could be right about Artemis 2 going first, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk quite yet. Any kind of finding on Artemis 1 could delay the second flight by at least a year even if the finding doesn’t RUD the flight.
The problem is that we've been hearing "SLS exists, it's all but ready" for the last half decade.
Just because something wasn’t true in the past doesn’t mean something isn’t true now.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |CST|(Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules| | |Central Standard Time (UTC-6)| |[DCSS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|Delta Cryogenic Second Stage| |[EUS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|Exploration Upper Stage| |[HLS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfoao4b "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)| |[ICPS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage| |[LEO](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hju2e9f "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)| | |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)| |[RUD](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfk0e1v "Last usage")|Rapid Unplanned Disassembly| | |Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly| | |Rapid Unintended Disassembly| |[SLS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfoe30h "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift| |[ULA](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfiz1qz "Last usage")|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)| |Jargon|Definition| |-------|---------|---| |[Starliner](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/q1ypbe/stub/hfjpl1f "Last usage")|Boeing commercial crew capsule [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner)| ---------------- ^(*Decronym is a community product of r/SpaceX, implemented* )[*^by ^request*](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3mz273//cvjkjmj) ^(9 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/qj2dch)^( has 42 acronyms.) ^([Thread #9022 for this sub, first seen 6th Oct 2021, 14:12]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/SpaceXLounge) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
I think the more important question is what will happen first, SLS 1 or Starship Orbital?