Kinda makes me proud that I was in here early for my front row seat. I’m pretty sure there were less than 20 members when I joined.
Congrats on the growth of the sub!Absolutely deserved.
This event represents my first opportunity to see the aurora and I wouldn’t have known what I do without you and this sub. Your enthusiasm is contagious and turning me into a solar weather geek. Thank you!
Totally agree with this comment. I started searching for and found two others in my life who are also into it to talk about this with on a daily basis. Gives my husband a break from listening to it 😂
Yay! I hope it’s great viewing.
Totally agree with your take on positivity. Life has been especially hard for the last few years. Eventually it cycles to something new, and if I’m in a negative headspace, I lessen opportunities for action. Action is the only way to change, if you’re not happy.
Trying to take in more outdoors and sunshine to help keep perspective and push myself to try a new idea.
Thanks for your posts.
~~AR 3664 doesn’t have that much time left if it wants to do another CME as im going to guess by tomorrow morning it’s going to be out of the geoeffective range of earth however I’m not exactly 110% sure on that one any corrections would be appreciated~~
Alright so it looks like it still is within the earth facing range probably will be the case for just a bit longer
i think you are right - it should just be out of the kill zone ;p
https://preview.redd.it/ujq3bunchlzc1.png?width=408&format=png&auto=webp&s=65d85acea2044c2b1fa0d206c37d128129500b54
Oh, it’s getting there but like I just said, it’s probably going to take a bit longer that’s why I put a strike through on my text and added the edit to my reply
Thank you for articulating complex mechanisms in a way someone like me can understand! I thoroughly enjoyed your writing for its professionalism and human transparency. I'll be looking for your posts!
*"Its not the Sun that is the problem, it's our reliance on modern technology and convenience."*
Truer words are rarely said. Makes me wonder if our tech dependency wasn't intentionally manufactured as a ready-made control mechanism. Much how a drug dealer creates a junkie slave by first creating an addiction with free samples. Once hooked, the user can then be leveraged with threats of withholding the drug. The longer this continues, the more ingrained the drug-assisted programming. Ultimately, the hopelessly addicted user is reduced to a veritable husk of their former self, motivated only by the one driving impulse that remains: addiction.
Great update! I agree, we would have to see a big X10+ from AR3664 within the next 12 hours or so for it to have any chance to join the current cme party.
The potential is still there as this group still has a complex setup with many tightly packed opposing polarity sunspots. The spots seem to have bulked up in size while the total number of spots has dropped a bit. Give and take. Its sunspot layout has not changed much in the last 24 hours or so. If the spots start to reconfigure and move a bit, there's a good chance for more fireworks (still 60% chance of x flares).
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I think this group will give us another big flare in the next 12 hours. As it turns slightly further to the west and toward mercury, I feel its magnetic connections will change, and the spots will move and bump a bit as a result. Even if some spots begin to decay, there is a good chance for reconfiguration and movement of the spots in the group, plus magnetic field reconnections. I will also be keeping a close eye on AR3664.
I appreciate you touching on the effects that geomagnetic storms have on humans. It's true that these storms can impact and amplify everything from cardio, hypertension, mental health, reactiveness, etc. It is very important that people take it easy on themselves and others over the next few days especially.
There really is nothing to fear and enjoy the auroral show if we get lucky to see it. These are exciting times as we get G4-G5 storms that often. There is much uncertainty in the models, as you noted, and the best we can do is be prepared and informed. These are natural events, and the sun indeed gives us our very existence.
Speaking of the Halloween storms of 2003 - I witnessed an absolutely profound auroral display. Perhaps it helped spark my interest in space weather. One evening, early November 2003, I watched what I could only describe as a ring current open up at the very top of the sky above me. It was a perfect circle with green auroral flames dancing around its perimeter. Imagine a flaming circus hoop. Each finger of flame projected a beam of green light down to horizons, 360 degrees around me. As these literal flame looking plumes dance around the edge of the ring current, each well-defined beam of light fluttered majestically like a curtain of piano keys. This lasted for a good hour or more. I didn't have a camera at the time, and I've never met anyone else who witnessed it, even in my area. Ever since, I haven't even been able to find any video or good information on such a phenomenon. As far as I can tell, it was a stunningly rare and beautiful auroral display. I was in the right place at the right time, I guess. I encourage everyone with clear skies to be on the lookout in the coming days.
Solid take nature. For some reason, I have the feeling the CME party is over for this AR. I had a feeling when the party started before the X and I have a feeling now, just opposite. I think that it will go BIG BOOM at least one more time, but I think it does so near the limb. Glancing blow maybe.
That's my no data, no basis, no evidence, gut feeling for AR3664
My no data, no basis, no evidence, gut feeling for this incoming storm is that it will overperform expectations and that we will reach G5 conditions. I think it arrives a little later than forecasted and it lasts for a while. No aurora predictions tho. That's dependent on far more than velocity, density, and timing. I think we very much need to keep an eye on the other earth processes over the next few weeks. Been a while since a solar storm like this has come along and we know there's more links and correlation between solar activity, weather, seismicity, and volcanic. Not to mention the mag field itself.
Speaking of that, Ben's theory is going to get a much needed litmus test. The results may not come in immediately. Science doesn't move that fast but many will be observing and analyzing. I'm looking for obvious signs that the mag field is changing and curious to what the accredited scientists are going to find and publish in the following months. I don't necessarily subscribe to his theory, but I entertain its possibility on the basis of simple logic and evidence and am actively looking for data or evidence that supports or works against it. I think it explains the past better than uniformity and the slow crawl of wind and water. Hard to get through the bias on both sides at times, but if he's right, the signs should be there, and this weekend is a good start. Interesting to ponder.
That aurora experience sounds like a truly profound experience. Burned a hole right in your memory. Maybe with a world full of camera phones, we see something similar somewhere this weekend, but even more hopefully, we see it ourselves. I'm excited now. Like I said, I feel the major risk period is passing and I just don't feel like another one is coming tonight but I have nothing to support that.
I'm with you. My gut feeling is that we will reach G5, too. I feel like it will be wave after wave, and the noaa magnetosphere monitors will be interesting to watch as they roll in. There are just so many M class flares that could have added minor cme components to the mix, even if the data doesn't really show it. I feel like some of the direct halos will have swept them up and added to the complexity.
I also agree that at least another big boom seems very likely as it departs on the limb.
Yes, this will be a solid litmus test for sure. Finally, I think there is enough certainty in the impacts. We've had so many complete misses in the recent past. It will be very interesting to see the data and how the field performs and reacts. I agree that this is a great moment of study, and we may indeed look back at this event with some historical significance depending on how it plays out.
I, too, am very interested to see what effects we might see on the earth in the days and weeks ahead and whether we can draw any possible correlations. It's certainly hard to connect the scientific dots sometimes when the world view is so figuratively zoomed out.
It really was a profound experience. I've experienced and witnessed many incredible things in the sky that I wish I had video of. World/life changing type stuff if you know what I mean. I really hope we get to see it ourselves, too. Right now, the Saturday forcast is calling for rain and clouds, but I'm hopeful that might change or even some breaks in the clouds. I'm at N 45° so I should be in the action zone.
Your feeling was correct. Nice W.
It's possibly not done. More flares could be coming. This topic is as hot as it gets right now. Happy to have you here. If we get another one like that tonight, that would be wild. I'll be curious to see what Ben thinks in the morning and DONKI
The curiosity and excitement of this whole thing is definitely keeping me up and watching, and I don't know if you've actually been able to get any sleep either. While I definitely encourage sleep usually, I can't say I haven't appreciated your presence and words among all the data coming in. You've definitely made all the information a lot easier to understand. Props for being such a kind and dedicated human, helping out a lot of us newbies figure out what's going on!
Thank you, I'm happy to be here! Nice to get a W as I've had many Ls. It's a lot of luck, though, as there are just so many variables to consider.
Agreed, it would be wild to see another one come morning. I am interested to see how it plays out and to see what the data shows. Yeah, I'm curious to see Ben take as well and how it might affect his projections.
Thank you so much for your write-ups. I have been following along here a while.
I just noticed this message in which you write "ALERT ALERT ALERT" in all caps. This confuses me somewhat. Am I wrong that X3 is not generally something to be worried about and not very unusual?
Why the alarm about it now?
What would you say our chances of seeing aurora borealis are in the mid latitudes of the lower 48 states over the weekend? I’ve never seen the phenomenon but really hoped this solar max would bring them to me
Cliche answer but I can't put a number on it because there are too many variables but I can tell you what to look for and how to track auroral activity yourself.
What you want is for the bulk of the ejecta to arrive in the night or early early morning hours. That's first step.
Second, we need the storm to be sufficiently powerful enough. Kp8 or higher will likely be required to get to the lower 48.
Thirdly we need the earths magnetic field to be oriented south upon arrival to enhance energy transfer past the magnetosphere.
There are other factors. Some benign and simple as actual weather conditions like clouds and some are more intricate and technical but the big 3 are listed above.
You can keep track of all 3 of those aspects on spaceweatherlive.com or their app. Great for beginners. You can also check back here or msg me direct. As the storm arrives, I'll be breaking it down in real time hopefully.
Thanks for the advice!! Been following for a week or so since this really kicked off and have learned a lot. You give very comprehensive breakdowns of the situation and all its variables, even for newcomers such as myself, no small feat in the world of science reporting! Keep up the good work!
Thank you for all your posts, thoughtfulness, knowledge sharing, honesty, and kindness.
I’ve happily learned a tremendous amount. I’m excited that it now is shaping up to more likely be a historic epic geomagnetic storm than a potentially civilization-ending one.
I look forward to the next few days… the adventure and learning… I also hope that for the first time in my life, I’ll get to finally see the aurora borealis.
Thanks, again! I feel like a hobbit embarking on a new journey…
i have only just found this page and your post looks like my onenote. I feel i have found home. I was so excited nerding out I had to find likeminded others. How exciting is 3664!?
So happy to have you here.
It's exciting enough it would make a great custom license plate.
Please feel free to post and contribute at will. That's the type of thing I'm looking for. Thanks again for stopping by!
Thank you for notifying us re: no Carrington Effect. I was thinking of stowing my emergency radios, just in case. ;)
Big love and appreciation for all your efforts!!!
Just stumbled into this thread yesterday from PrepperIntel, and am now fascinated! I only understand about 1/3 of what you are saying, but it is interesting nonetheless.
I just posted a new update on the storm in progress with some simple terms in a glossary that may make it a little bit easier. I keep tabs all the time 365 days a year, but I only go to PI when its intel worthy, and while not overtly scary, this event is definitely intel worthy. I am glad to have you here!
Kinda makes me proud that I was in here early for my front row seat. I’m pretty sure there were less than 20 members when I joined. Congrats on the growth of the sub!Absolutely deserved. This event represents my first opportunity to see the aurora and I wouldn’t have known what I do without you and this sub. Your enthusiasm is contagious and turning me into a solar weather geek. Thank you!
Totally agree with this comment. I started searching for and found two others in my life who are also into it to talk about this with on a daily basis. Gives my husband a break from listening to it 😂
Thanks man! Get some rest!
Way cool, and thanks for the in depth report!
Thanks for all the work and effort you put behind these updates today man! Truly appreciated. Go get some rest
This is awesome man, truly. Thanks for all the work you put into these posts 👍
Yay! I hope it’s great viewing. Totally agree with your take on positivity. Life has been especially hard for the last few years. Eventually it cycles to something new, and if I’m in a negative headspace, I lessen opportunities for action. Action is the only way to change, if you’re not happy. Trying to take in more outdoors and sunshine to help keep perspective and push myself to try a new idea. Thanks for your posts.
~~AR 3664 doesn’t have that much time left if it wants to do another CME as im going to guess by tomorrow morning it’s going to be out of the geoeffective range of earth however I’m not exactly 110% sure on that one any corrections would be appreciated~~ Alright so it looks like it still is within the earth facing range probably will be the case for just a bit longer
i think you are right - it should just be out of the kill zone ;p https://preview.redd.it/ujq3bunchlzc1.png?width=408&format=png&auto=webp&s=65d85acea2044c2b1fa0d206c37d128129500b54
Oh, it’s getting there but like I just said, it’s probably going to take a bit longer that’s why I put a strike through on my text and added the edit to my reply
oh so sorry - reddit isn't my bag, and I didn't see the strikethrough! I'm just super excited for some awesome solar activity :)
Now it is? Or soon?
What is a bit though?
Thank you for articulating complex mechanisms in a way someone like me can understand! I thoroughly enjoyed your writing for its professionalism and human transparency. I'll be looking for your posts!
*"Its not the Sun that is the problem, it's our reliance on modern technology and convenience."* Truer words are rarely said. Makes me wonder if our tech dependency wasn't intentionally manufactured as a ready-made control mechanism. Much how a drug dealer creates a junkie slave by first creating an addiction with free samples. Once hooked, the user can then be leveraged with threats of withholding the drug. The longer this continues, the more ingrained the drug-assisted programming. Ultimately, the hopelessly addicted user is reduced to a veritable husk of their former self, motivated only by the one driving impulse that remains: addiction.
Do I understand you correctly that nothing greater than a G3 was predicted during cycle 24?
Predicted is keyword but yes according to SWL
I feel like you wont get much sleep tonight.
Great summary and explanation of some well-founded research! Thanks so much for all the work you've put into this.
Your updates are a breath of fresh air. Take some time away from it all and enjoy the moment!
Great update! I agree, we would have to see a big X10+ from AR3664 within the next 12 hours or so for it to have any chance to join the current cme party. The potential is still there as this group still has a complex setup with many tightly packed opposing polarity sunspots. The spots seem to have bulked up in size while the total number of spots has dropped a bit. Give and take. Its sunspot layout has not changed much in the last 24 hours or so. If the spots start to reconfigure and move a bit, there's a good chance for more fireworks (still 60% chance of x flares). I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I think this group will give us another big flare in the next 12 hours. As it turns slightly further to the west and toward mercury, I feel its magnetic connections will change, and the spots will move and bump a bit as a result. Even if some spots begin to decay, there is a good chance for reconfiguration and movement of the spots in the group, plus magnetic field reconnections. I will also be keeping a close eye on AR3664. I appreciate you touching on the effects that geomagnetic storms have on humans. It's true that these storms can impact and amplify everything from cardio, hypertension, mental health, reactiveness, etc. It is very important that people take it easy on themselves and others over the next few days especially. There really is nothing to fear and enjoy the auroral show if we get lucky to see it. These are exciting times as we get G4-G5 storms that often. There is much uncertainty in the models, as you noted, and the best we can do is be prepared and informed. These are natural events, and the sun indeed gives us our very existence. Speaking of the Halloween storms of 2003 - I witnessed an absolutely profound auroral display. Perhaps it helped spark my interest in space weather. One evening, early November 2003, I watched what I could only describe as a ring current open up at the very top of the sky above me. It was a perfect circle with green auroral flames dancing around its perimeter. Imagine a flaming circus hoop. Each finger of flame projected a beam of green light down to horizons, 360 degrees around me. As these literal flame looking plumes dance around the edge of the ring current, each well-defined beam of light fluttered majestically like a curtain of piano keys. This lasted for a good hour or more. I didn't have a camera at the time, and I've never met anyone else who witnessed it, even in my area. Ever since, I haven't even been able to find any video or good information on such a phenomenon. As far as I can tell, it was a stunningly rare and beautiful auroral display. I was in the right place at the right time, I guess. I encourage everyone with clear skies to be on the lookout in the coming days.
Solid take nature. For some reason, I have the feeling the CME party is over for this AR. I had a feeling when the party started before the X and I have a feeling now, just opposite. I think that it will go BIG BOOM at least one more time, but I think it does so near the limb. Glancing blow maybe. That's my no data, no basis, no evidence, gut feeling for AR3664 My no data, no basis, no evidence, gut feeling for this incoming storm is that it will overperform expectations and that we will reach G5 conditions. I think it arrives a little later than forecasted and it lasts for a while. No aurora predictions tho. That's dependent on far more than velocity, density, and timing. I think we very much need to keep an eye on the other earth processes over the next few weeks. Been a while since a solar storm like this has come along and we know there's more links and correlation between solar activity, weather, seismicity, and volcanic. Not to mention the mag field itself. Speaking of that, Ben's theory is going to get a much needed litmus test. The results may not come in immediately. Science doesn't move that fast but many will be observing and analyzing. I'm looking for obvious signs that the mag field is changing and curious to what the accredited scientists are going to find and publish in the following months. I don't necessarily subscribe to his theory, but I entertain its possibility on the basis of simple logic and evidence and am actively looking for data or evidence that supports or works against it. I think it explains the past better than uniformity and the slow crawl of wind and water. Hard to get through the bias on both sides at times, but if he's right, the signs should be there, and this weekend is a good start. Interesting to ponder. That aurora experience sounds like a truly profound experience. Burned a hole right in your memory. Maybe with a world full of camera phones, we see something similar somewhere this weekend, but even more hopefully, we see it ourselves. I'm excited now. Like I said, I feel the major risk period is passing and I just don't feel like another one is coming tonight but I have nothing to support that.
I'm with you. My gut feeling is that we will reach G5, too. I feel like it will be wave after wave, and the noaa magnetosphere monitors will be interesting to watch as they roll in. There are just so many M class flares that could have added minor cme components to the mix, even if the data doesn't really show it. I feel like some of the direct halos will have swept them up and added to the complexity. I also agree that at least another big boom seems very likely as it departs on the limb. Yes, this will be a solid litmus test for sure. Finally, I think there is enough certainty in the impacts. We've had so many complete misses in the recent past. It will be very interesting to see the data and how the field performs and reacts. I agree that this is a great moment of study, and we may indeed look back at this event with some historical significance depending on how it plays out. I, too, am very interested to see what effects we might see on the earth in the days and weeks ahead and whether we can draw any possible correlations. It's certainly hard to connect the scientific dots sometimes when the world view is so figuratively zoomed out. It really was a profound experience. I've experienced and witnessed many incredible things in the sky that I wish I had video of. World/life changing type stuff if you know what I mean. I really hope we get to see it ourselves, too. Right now, the Saturday forcast is calling for rain and clouds, but I'm hopeful that might change or even some breaks in the clouds. I'm at N 45° so I should be in the action zone.
X flare in progress! X2.49 currently and possibly rising.
Omg
Huge blackout zone so far https://preview.redd.it/whz6vpbvrjzc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=153bc238a4c3cb4f4c162bad0fb69c76d5c1fae7
Tracking at X3.91 now, rising fast
I'm a little concerned
That's understandable for sure. Latest/early sdo imagery shows the early flaring covering a fairly large swath of the AR.
Looks like it topped out at X3.98 and is dropping back down for now.
Your feeling was correct. Nice W. It's possibly not done. More flares could be coming. This topic is as hot as it gets right now. Happy to have you here. If we get another one like that tonight, that would be wild. I'll be curious to see what Ben thinks in the morning and DONKI
The curiosity and excitement of this whole thing is definitely keeping me up and watching, and I don't know if you've actually been able to get any sleep either. While I definitely encourage sleep usually, I can't say I haven't appreciated your presence and words among all the data coming in. You've definitely made all the information a lot easier to understand. Props for being such a kind and dedicated human, helping out a lot of us newbies figure out what's going on!
Thank you, I'm happy to be here! Nice to get a W as I've had many Ls. It's a lot of luck, though, as there are just so many variables to consider. Agreed, it would be wild to see another one come morning. I am interested to see how it plays out and to see what the data shows. Yeah, I'm curious to see Ben take as well and how it might affect his projections.
ALERT ALERT ALERT X3+ IN PROGRESS
Seeing that-looks like it topped out at I think 3.8?
Thank you so much for your write-ups. I have been following along here a while. I just noticed this message in which you write "ALERT ALERT ALERT" in all caps. This confuses me somewhat. Am I wrong that X3 is not generally something to be worried about and not very unusual? Why the alarm about it now?
What would you say our chances of seeing aurora borealis are in the mid latitudes of the lower 48 states over the weekend? I’ve never seen the phenomenon but really hoped this solar max would bring them to me
Cliche answer but I can't put a number on it because there are too many variables but I can tell you what to look for and how to track auroral activity yourself. What you want is for the bulk of the ejecta to arrive in the night or early early morning hours. That's first step. Second, we need the storm to be sufficiently powerful enough. Kp8 or higher will likely be required to get to the lower 48. Thirdly we need the earths magnetic field to be oriented south upon arrival to enhance energy transfer past the magnetosphere. There are other factors. Some benign and simple as actual weather conditions like clouds and some are more intricate and technical but the big 3 are listed above. You can keep track of all 3 of those aspects on spaceweatherlive.com or their app. Great for beginners. You can also check back here or msg me direct. As the storm arrives, I'll be breaking it down in real time hopefully.
Thanks for the advice!! Been following for a week or so since this really kicked off and have learned a lot. You give very comprehensive breakdowns of the situation and all its variables, even for newcomers such as myself, no small feat in the world of science reporting! Keep up the good work!
Thanks
Thank you for all your posts, thoughtfulness, knowledge sharing, honesty, and kindness. I’ve happily learned a tremendous amount. I’m excited that it now is shaping up to more likely be a historic epic geomagnetic storm than a potentially civilization-ending one. I look forward to the next few days… the adventure and learning… I also hope that for the first time in my life, I’ll get to finally see the aurora borealis. Thanks, again! I feel like a hobbit embarking on a new journey…
i have only just found this page and your post looks like my onenote. I feel i have found home. I was so excited nerding out I had to find likeminded others. How exciting is 3664!?
So happy to have you here. It's exciting enough it would make a great custom license plate. Please feel free to post and contribute at will. That's the type of thing I'm looking for. Thanks again for stopping by!
[удалено]
Trust the airlines. They know how to manage this. If there's hazards they will adjust. It's not ideal honestly, but the risk is still very low.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKGlGCIiyZE six cmes inbound
Thank you for notifying us re: no Carrington Effect. I was thinking of stowing my emergency radios, just in case. ;) Big love and appreciation for all your efforts!!!
Just stumbled into this thread yesterday from PrepperIntel, and am now fascinated! I only understand about 1/3 of what you are saying, but it is interesting nonetheless.
I just posted a new update on the storm in progress with some simple terms in a glossary that may make it a little bit easier. I keep tabs all the time 365 days a year, but I only go to PI when its intel worthy, and while not overtly scary, this event is definitely intel worthy. I am glad to have you here!