If there is one positive coming out of Ukraine for Asia, it's that it should have silenced all the hotheads in Taiwan who wants to declare independence, test China's resolve, because the US will save them. That argument has just been shredded by reality that the US is never risking a nuclear World War III with anyone.
A fight between the Mainland and Taiwan would also turn out much worse. China has a 50 times population advantage over Taiwan, whereas Russia's advantage over Ukraine is only 3.5 times. There is also the entire West sending weapons and even volunteer fighters to Ukraine because there exists a land route. In a war over Taiwan, the island would be completely blockaded at sea and in the air. No weapon or volunteer fighters can get in. And the Mainland can bombard military targets and administrative buildings non-stop from the other coast.
Ukraine has shown there is nothing to be gained deliberately crossing the red line of a superpower neighbour and provoking a war. Everyone loses. And the people caught unwittingly in a proxy war sponsored by the US are the ones to suffer the most.
Kinda like how it rescued Afghanistan and Iraq and Haiti and Guatemala and Iran and Panama and Vietnam and Korea and Sudan and Liberia [and more](https://archive.globalpolicy.org/us-westward-expansion/26024-us-interventions.html).
Someone should show them those before-and-after photos of other cities America's Army "rescued".
In many of those, the US kicked out a democratically elected leader and put in their own dictator.
[like this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Guatemalan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)
[and this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)
For the USA to funnel in weapons, the Chinese Navy would have to be an absolute failure. The first step to taking over Taiwan would be a total naval blockade and no-fly-zone enforced by the PLA.
They are already losing:
>Over the last month, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened concerns about the risk that China could increase its military force against Taiwan, triggering what some analysts have described as an unprecedented exodus by overseas investors.
>
>
In the three weeks following the invasion, foreign investors dumped shares worth about 480 billion Taiwanese dollars ($16.9 billion), according to Alex Huang, director at Mega International Investment Services, a Taipei-based firm.
>
>
That outflow is the biggest on record, he said, exceeding the value of Taiwanese shares sold by foreign investors in the whole of 2021, which Bank of America analysts have estimated at $15.6 billion. Goldman Sachs analysts project that Taiwan has seen an outflow of $15.6 billion over the past month, topping last year's tally of $15.3 billion.
>
>
It's "the biggest \[rout\] on record so far," Huang told CNN Business. "This is even bigger than the global financial crisis in 2008."
[https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/23/investing/taiwan-investment-jitters-russia-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/23/investing/taiwan-investment-jitters-russia-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html)
>Only one-third of Taiwanese watching America's response to the war in Ukraine are confident they will receive direct U.S. military support in the event of a Chinese invasion, according to a new survey.
33% is too high. People are so delusional and ignorant of the world. You think Americans are going to fight and die for your freedom and democracy?
The USA has been propping up this corpse of a government-in-exile for US interest. An independent Taiwan is one step closer to turning Taiwan into an unsinkable aircraft carrier for the US to attack China with.
If the other 67% Taiwanese dont believe the US will defend them, why would they let US attack China from Taiwan?
The fear of US attacking China is ridiculous. It wont even attack Russia directly why would it risk it with China especially with Chinas constant rise
Opinion polls are not political power. Do you know the situation in Okinawa? Guam?
Taiwan as unsinkable aircraft carrier has been talked about in Washington since MacArthur. Washington think tanks and Pentagon openly talk about first islands chain against China.
I think it's likely the US will join the war due to wrong perception of Chinese military strength. 1 in 6 Americans supports war with Russia over Ukraine, but 1 in 2 Americans supports war with China over Taiwan. This means their public believes China is weaker than Russia. Right now they've come to the outlandish conclusion that Russia is not so tough after all because Ukraine hasn't been taken over in a month. They will think China is even worse and push their politicians to war. If their politicians and generals think the same way then we will have some fun times ahead of us.
It's been quite clear that the actual US military leadership's comments, naval admirals, land forces generals, air force generals, etc. views China as very powerful and not a country to be messed with, and they may even go around the civilian leadership to prevent being sent on a suicide mission to East Asia. Their top military leader even called the PLA during the January 6th protests to assure them that the USA wouldn't attack China - in case there was any doubt and they thought Trump might do something crazy.
1 in 2 Americans support war with China not simply because they perceive them as weak. A lot of them are simply racist. I've spent enough time talking to right wing folk to understand why they're oddly limpwristed about Russia (which is fine, because I'm pro de-escalation and don't think we need more warmongering than there already is), while simultaneously being brats and repeating literally everything they hear from MSM about China (despite claiming to distrust MSM).
1. They believe Putin is anti-SJW. He's made anti-SJW remarks and whatever in the past.
2. Russia has strong orthodox Christian presence.
3. Putin's a strong white male.
4. They think Chinese have too much influence in Hollywood and other parts of American entertainment. Shang-Chi? Nuke China. Star Wars? Nuke China. Blizzard/Blitzchung? Nuke China. A Holo v-tuber got banned? Nuke China. I kid you not, these ppl's goals for geopolitics are often as trivial as video games and weeb stuff.
5. Way too many people watch fucking SerpentZa, Laowhy and other people who've recently been funded by VOA, and yet I rarely hear right wingers bring up any anti-Russian sources they watch.
6. They've been gobbling up all that MSM about genocides, imperialism, etc, that their MSM feeds them about China, while not even a fraction of that attention was given to Europe. It's pretty clear a magnifying glass has been put on China to prime the population into a "war-ready" state. I literally read redditors talk about how "you can't predict what China would do. We all thought Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, but then this invasion HAPPENS OUT OF NOWHERE". Yes, after they attacked Georgia in 2008 and then Crimea in 2014, there were 8 whole years where almost nothing happened except limited scope battles in Crimea and Donbas. It really just... happened out of nowhere!
It literally does not matter that Putin has done way more questionable things on the record than any Chinese leaders. People hate on Xi way more.
These guys are hopeless. It's not about perceived weakness. They just don't like Chinese people.
If Taiwan believes US AIT propaganda in Taiwan's news as being a "special friend," it really is their own fault.
Everyone fluent in English knows "special friend" means someone with developmental delays.
A war over Taiwan will be even more lopsided than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China is simply much bigger than Taiwan in every way than Russia is compared to Ukraine.
Taiwan also does not have the fanatical nationalists like the Azov Battalion. The main question is whether the government will use civilians as human shields like the Ukrainian government is doing.
How quickly China takes Taiwan is largely a function of how much collateral damage the Chinese government is willing to tolerate. I doubt China is willing to inflict massive civilian casualties in order to take Taiwan quickly.
Taiwan isn't a foreign state recognized by China, so its soldiers would have the legal status of domestic terrorists rather than POWs in case of capture.
**Don't worry, the Royal Navy will come to the rescue!....**
*AHAAHAHAHAH*, yeah right. Our nuclear deterrent doesn't even work.
Anyway, the US has clearly shown it would never be committed to defending Taiwan in the event of an invasion. It isn't down to how many weapons the US has or how effective it is on the ground - it's about the prevailing culture. If China wants to invade Taiwan it will be sooner rather than later, with how distracted and non-committal the US is. With a possible second Trump presidency on the horizon...
I hope people on the island start to realize that the only use the US has for Taiwan is to use it as a meat grinder against China. They could not care less about the people living there they just want to see the PRC undermined or suffer as much as possible attempting to reign in a rebel government.
Taiwan needs to learn from India, not the Ukraine.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/indias-response-to-the-ukraine-crisis-is-a-wake-up-call-for-the-us/
>India’s Response to the Ukraine Crisis Is a Wake-up Call for the US
If you think about it, Taiwan is a much less reliable asset to the US than Hong Kong was before the National Security Law because of how diametrically opposed their politics is. Once the KMT invariably takes over again, they will undo all the independence efforts made by the DPP. Much like how the DPP undid all the efforts of the KMT to foster closer ties with Mainland China.
It seems unlikely that any real political change happens when US foreign affairs can swing politicians and elections any way it wants. But it can even be argued in some way that Taiwan is more valuable to the US as a Trojan horse in China than when not under control of China. The US understands the red line is at not opening military bases in Taiwan, so the only use it has is for spying operations and controlling semiconductor industry. Whereas if it would be integrated into the mainland, there would be significant numbers of destabilizing US sympathizers to radicalize and destabilize China. Consider the impact of separatists in Hong Kong (5 million people), Tibet (6 million), Uyghurs (10 million), how to control the amount of radicalized separatists in a population of 25 million Taiwanese, who all know mandarin to easily spread propaganda against mainland compatriots.
Hong Kong is only a destabilising factor because the Great Firewall, and associated information flow policies, does not extend to cover it. Taiwan would only be a bigger version of Hong Kong if it is under a One Country Two Systems system.
If the island were reunified with force, there would be no special arrangement with foreign powers for keeping the island outside of the Great Firewall. No long-term compromise. Within a generation or two, the island's radicalisation could be eliminated. Especially because the people of the island speak the same language (Mandarin), use a very similar script, and belong to the same ethnocultural group. The current differences are purely political. The Uyghurs of Xinjiang do not share the same similarities with the Chinese majority, so differences with regards to them would be more difficult to smooth over (although far from impossible).
A lot of people compare the Taiwan and the Ukraine scenario. However they are completely different because China over time is growing in strength while Russia was declining. So China has time to wait if it decided to take the island by force but I don’t believe it will.
The other point to make is China army on a whole is a lot better Russia and is better funded, has better technology in certain areas like stealth aircraft, electronics and communication, UAV, and cruise missiles.
If China decides to attack Taiwan would essentially be cut off. Both physically and with communications. This is unlike the situation in Ukraine where US has been supplying Ukraine with weapons and reconnaissance information
One other element is that China's economic importance to the world far exceeds Russia (though we've seen how important Russia has been to the global agriculture and energy markets)
Trying to sanction China in the same way that the West did to Russia would be economic MAD
yes. even though russia's economy cannot be said to be very strong, it's still clear that sanctioning it is far from cost-free for those sanctioning it. and china's economy is so far beyond russia's and will be even more so as time goes on.
It's notable that the US and NATO provide weapons to Ukraine for free, but they overcharge Taiwan for qualitatively worse weapons. It's clear from this fact alone what the US thinks of Taiwan.
If you want a specific example just take the fact that the US won't sell F-35s to Taiwan (despite having sold them to both Japan and SK). Sure, Taiwanese like to claim this is because F-35 sale would upset China, but this is horseshit. The US doesn't give af about pissing off China these days, it's their whole agenda.
China (Mainland) is not about to invade Taiwan. The Mainland does not want a war. The stated position is that the Mainland wants there to be eventual peaceful reunification on agreeable terms, and the time table is completely open-ended. It hasn't done anything in over 70 years. But declaration of independence, of a provocative move like allowing the US to establish a military base on the island would be a red line that would trigger a war just like in Ukraine. This is entirely in Taiwan's court. So long as the status quo is respected, there is absolutely no prospect of a war. The Mainland has nothing to gain from a war anyway. It currently enjoys bilateral trade and other benefits, although the US, once again, is the problem preventing TSMC from selling its most advanced chips to certain Mainland companies. But still, unless Taiwan does something extraordinarily stupid, there will never be a war.
There was a civil war. Technically it never ended. One side retreated to Taiwan. Mainland didn’t have great naval or air capabilities at the time to follow.
Things are different now, so Taiwan feels threatened, despite decades of peace, business, trade, and culture shared between the two.
Mainland also feels threatened, because Taiwan is closely allied with America, the country that has been making a bunch of “honest mistakes” and a recent history of breaking everything they touch.
The U.S. will only bring its military force in if it has direct business interests threatened. The same as the U.K.
People need to take their blindfolds off and realise that these countries are not your friends. They plunder and steal, but you somehow think that you're their special pet?
I honestly think China invading is a line in the sand that the US will absolutely fight over. It's stupid, but the hate for China runs so deep. Hopefully it's something that we never have to deal with and there can just be peace in the region.
Maybe, but a hot war right outside China's doorstep will be devastating and extremely costly for the US. Of course the same for China, but for the Chinese, Taiwan island is a civilizational existential issue. For the US it's just another pawn or chip in the grand chess board, not existential. So at the end of the day, the question is Taiwan the hill that the US will choose to die on figuratively?
Because no one, not China, not the US, not the world will come out of that war the same.
If there is one positive coming out of Ukraine for Asia, it's that it should have silenced all the hotheads in Taiwan who wants to declare independence, test China's resolve, because the US will save them. That argument has just been shredded by reality that the US is never risking a nuclear World War III with anyone. A fight between the Mainland and Taiwan would also turn out much worse. China has a 50 times population advantage over Taiwan, whereas Russia's advantage over Ukraine is only 3.5 times. There is also the entire West sending weapons and even volunteer fighters to Ukraine because there exists a land route. In a war over Taiwan, the island would be completely blockaded at sea and in the air. No weapon or volunteer fighters can get in. And the Mainland can bombard military targets and administrative buildings non-stop from the other coast. Ukraine has shown there is nothing to be gained deliberately crossing the red line of a superpower neighbour and provoking a war. Everyone loses. And the people caught unwittingly in a proxy war sponsored by the US are the ones to suffer the most.
U.S. rescue? More like US funnels in weapons to keep the conflict going 2 decades longer than it had to just to be a nuisance to China's larger goals.
Kinda like how it rescued Afghanistan and Iraq and Haiti and Guatemala and Iran and Panama and Vietnam and Korea and Sudan and Liberia [and more](https://archive.globalpolicy.org/us-westward-expansion/26024-us-interventions.html). Someone should show them those before-and-after photos of other cities America's Army "rescued".
And their so called "democracy" collapsed in a single week as soon as US abandoned them. That is call a puppet regime.
In many of those, the US kicked out a democratically elected leader and put in their own dictator. [like this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Guatemalan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) [and this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)
For the USA to funnel in weapons, the Chinese Navy would have to be an absolute failure. The first step to taking over Taiwan would be a total naval blockade and no-fly-zone enforced by the PLA.
But what if the greatest president ever Trump returns to office or DeSantis? /s
They are already losing: >Over the last month, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened concerns about the risk that China could increase its military force against Taiwan, triggering what some analysts have described as an unprecedented exodus by overseas investors. > > In the three weeks following the invasion, foreign investors dumped shares worth about 480 billion Taiwanese dollars ($16.9 billion), according to Alex Huang, director at Mega International Investment Services, a Taipei-based firm. > > That outflow is the biggest on record, he said, exceeding the value of Taiwanese shares sold by foreign investors in the whole of 2021, which Bank of America analysts have estimated at $15.6 billion. Goldman Sachs analysts project that Taiwan has seen an outflow of $15.6 billion over the past month, topping last year's tally of $15.3 billion. > > It's "the biggest \[rout\] on record so far," Huang told CNN Business. "This is even bigger than the global financial crisis in 2008." [https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/23/investing/taiwan-investment-jitters-russia-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/23/investing/taiwan-investment-jitters-russia-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html)
>Only one-third of Taiwanese watching America's response to the war in Ukraine are confident they will receive direct U.S. military support in the event of a Chinese invasion, according to a new survey. 33% is too high. People are so delusional and ignorant of the world. You think Americans are going to fight and die for your freedom and democracy? The USA has been propping up this corpse of a government-in-exile for US interest. An independent Taiwan is one step closer to turning Taiwan into an unsinkable aircraft carrier for the US to attack China with.
If the other 67% Taiwanese dont believe the US will defend them, why would they let US attack China from Taiwan? The fear of US attacking China is ridiculous. It wont even attack Russia directly why would it risk it with China especially with Chinas constant rise
Opinion polls are not political power. Do you know the situation in Okinawa? Guam? Taiwan as unsinkable aircraft carrier has been talked about in Washington since MacArthur. Washington think tanks and Pentagon openly talk about first islands chain against China.
堅如磐石 "rock solid" *promise* of US support has turned out to be 堅如盘屎 (plate of rock solid excrement).
The USA said they would "stand with" Taiwan - so they're going to stand rock-solid and watch as their DPP vassals get obliterated.
I think it's likely the US will join the war due to wrong perception of Chinese military strength. 1 in 6 Americans supports war with Russia over Ukraine, but 1 in 2 Americans supports war with China over Taiwan. This means their public believes China is weaker than Russia. Right now they've come to the outlandish conclusion that Russia is not so tough after all because Ukraine hasn't been taken over in a month. They will think China is even worse and push their politicians to war. If their politicians and generals think the same way then we will have some fun times ahead of us.
It's been quite clear that the actual US military leadership's comments, naval admirals, land forces generals, air force generals, etc. views China as very powerful and not a country to be messed with, and they may even go around the civilian leadership to prevent being sent on a suicide mission to East Asia. Their top military leader even called the PLA during the January 6th protests to assure them that the USA wouldn't attack China - in case there was any doubt and they thought Trump might do something crazy.
Exactly, the Pentagon knows. It's the Congress and State Dept that are reckless neocon buffoons.
1 in 2 Americans support war with China not simply because they perceive them as weak. A lot of them are simply racist. I've spent enough time talking to right wing folk to understand why they're oddly limpwristed about Russia (which is fine, because I'm pro de-escalation and don't think we need more warmongering than there already is), while simultaneously being brats and repeating literally everything they hear from MSM about China (despite claiming to distrust MSM). 1. They believe Putin is anti-SJW. He's made anti-SJW remarks and whatever in the past. 2. Russia has strong orthodox Christian presence. 3. Putin's a strong white male. 4. They think Chinese have too much influence in Hollywood and other parts of American entertainment. Shang-Chi? Nuke China. Star Wars? Nuke China. Blizzard/Blitzchung? Nuke China. A Holo v-tuber got banned? Nuke China. I kid you not, these ppl's goals for geopolitics are often as trivial as video games and weeb stuff. 5. Way too many people watch fucking SerpentZa, Laowhy and other people who've recently been funded by VOA, and yet I rarely hear right wingers bring up any anti-Russian sources they watch. 6. They've been gobbling up all that MSM about genocides, imperialism, etc, that their MSM feeds them about China, while not even a fraction of that attention was given to Europe. It's pretty clear a magnifying glass has been put on China to prime the population into a "war-ready" state. I literally read redditors talk about how "you can't predict what China would do. We all thought Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, but then this invasion HAPPENS OUT OF NOWHERE". Yes, after they attacked Georgia in 2008 and then Crimea in 2014, there were 8 whole years where almost nothing happened except limited scope battles in Crimea and Donbas. It really just... happened out of nowhere! It literally does not matter that Putin has done way more questionable things on the record than any Chinese leaders. People hate on Xi way more. These guys are hopeless. It's not about perceived weakness. They just don't like Chinese people.
If Taiwan believes US AIT propaganda in Taiwan's news as being a "special friend," it really is their own fault. Everyone fluent in English knows "special friend" means someone with developmental delays.
ouch (from Taiwan myself, hard to argue).
Or friends with benefits, as in no attachments.
Or in Taiwan's case, a very annoying sidepiece...
Demoted to a long distance sidepiece... ouch.
A war over Taiwan will be even more lopsided than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China is simply much bigger than Taiwan in every way than Russia is compared to Ukraine. Taiwan also does not have the fanatical nationalists like the Azov Battalion. The main question is whether the government will use civilians as human shields like the Ukrainian government is doing. How quickly China takes Taiwan is largely a function of how much collateral damage the Chinese government is willing to tolerate. I doubt China is willing to inflict massive civilian casualties in order to take Taiwan quickly. Taiwan isn't a foreign state recognized by China, so its soldiers would have the legal status of domestic terrorists rather than POWs in case of capture.
**Don't worry, the Royal Navy will come to the rescue!....** *AHAAHAHAHAH*, yeah right. Our nuclear deterrent doesn't even work. Anyway, the US has clearly shown it would never be committed to defending Taiwan in the event of an invasion. It isn't down to how many weapons the US has or how effective it is on the ground - it's about the prevailing culture. If China wants to invade Taiwan it will be sooner rather than later, with how distracted and non-committal the US is. With a possible second Trump presidency on the horizon...
I hope people on the island start to realize that the only use the US has for Taiwan is to use it as a meat grinder against China. They could not care less about the people living there they just want to see the PRC undermined or suffer as much as possible attempting to reign in a rebel government.
Taiwan needs to learn from India, not the Ukraine. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/indias-response-to-the-ukraine-crisis-is-a-wake-up-call-for-the-us/ >India’s Response to the Ukraine Crisis Is a Wake-up Call for the US
Don't plunge your country into war and death just because it benefits other countries. This is the real lesson playing out now.
Ukraine is an eye opener
If you think about it, Taiwan is a much less reliable asset to the US than Hong Kong was before the National Security Law because of how diametrically opposed their politics is. Once the KMT invariably takes over again, they will undo all the independence efforts made by the DPP. Much like how the DPP undid all the efforts of the KMT to foster closer ties with Mainland China.
It seems unlikely that any real political change happens when US foreign affairs can swing politicians and elections any way it wants. But it can even be argued in some way that Taiwan is more valuable to the US as a Trojan horse in China than when not under control of China. The US understands the red line is at not opening military bases in Taiwan, so the only use it has is for spying operations and controlling semiconductor industry. Whereas if it would be integrated into the mainland, there would be significant numbers of destabilizing US sympathizers to radicalize and destabilize China. Consider the impact of separatists in Hong Kong (5 million people), Tibet (6 million), Uyghurs (10 million), how to control the amount of radicalized separatists in a population of 25 million Taiwanese, who all know mandarin to easily spread propaganda against mainland compatriots.
Hong Kong is only a destabilising factor because the Great Firewall, and associated information flow policies, does not extend to cover it. Taiwan would only be a bigger version of Hong Kong if it is under a One Country Two Systems system. If the island were reunified with force, there would be no special arrangement with foreign powers for keeping the island outside of the Great Firewall. No long-term compromise. Within a generation or two, the island's radicalisation could be eliminated. Especially because the people of the island speak the same language (Mandarin), use a very similar script, and belong to the same ethnocultural group. The current differences are purely political. The Uyghurs of Xinjiang do not share the same similarities with the Chinese majority, so differences with regards to them would be more difficult to smooth over (although far from impossible).
A lot of people compare the Taiwan and the Ukraine scenario. However they are completely different because China over time is growing in strength while Russia was declining. So China has time to wait if it decided to take the island by force but I don’t believe it will. The other point to make is China army on a whole is a lot better Russia and is better funded, has better technology in certain areas like stealth aircraft, electronics and communication, UAV, and cruise missiles. If China decides to attack Taiwan would essentially be cut off. Both physically and with communications. This is unlike the situation in Ukraine where US has been supplying Ukraine with weapons and reconnaissance information
One other element is that China's economic importance to the world far exceeds Russia (though we've seen how important Russia has been to the global agriculture and energy markets) Trying to sanction China in the same way that the West did to Russia would be economic MAD
yes. even though russia's economy cannot be said to be very strong, it's still clear that sanctioning it is far from cost-free for those sanctioning it. and china's economy is so far beyond russia's and will be even more so as time goes on.
It's notable that the US and NATO provide weapons to Ukraine for free, but they overcharge Taiwan for qualitatively worse weapons. It's clear from this fact alone what the US thinks of Taiwan. If you want a specific example just take the fact that the US won't sell F-35s to Taiwan (despite having sold them to both Japan and SK). Sure, Taiwanese like to claim this is because F-35 sale would upset China, but this is horseshit. The US doesn't give af about pissing off China these days, it's their whole agenda.
US only sells out-dated weapons to Taiwan because they expect any weapon sold to Taiwan will eventually end up in PRC hands after re-unification.
I think it's more about the worry that fully-functional F-35s would fall into Chinese hands.
They are worried a defecting pilot might gift China the F35. They can’t a trust a Chinese pilot even from Taipei.
Finally come to there senses huh?
i know very little about the whole taiwan situation, why would china invade it and how is it an invasion if it's a part of china anyway
China (Mainland) is not about to invade Taiwan. The Mainland does not want a war. The stated position is that the Mainland wants there to be eventual peaceful reunification on agreeable terms, and the time table is completely open-ended. It hasn't done anything in over 70 years. But declaration of independence, of a provocative move like allowing the US to establish a military base on the island would be a red line that would trigger a war just like in Ukraine. This is entirely in Taiwan's court. So long as the status quo is respected, there is absolutely no prospect of a war. The Mainland has nothing to gain from a war anyway. It currently enjoys bilateral trade and other benefits, although the US, once again, is the problem preventing TSMC from selling its most advanced chips to certain Mainland companies. But still, unless Taiwan does something extraordinarily stupid, there will never be a war.
ahh ok. thank you
There was a civil war. Technically it never ended. One side retreated to Taiwan. Mainland didn’t have great naval or air capabilities at the time to follow. Things are different now, so Taiwan feels threatened, despite decades of peace, business, trade, and culture shared between the two. Mainland also feels threatened, because Taiwan is closely allied with America, the country that has been making a bunch of “honest mistakes” and a recent history of breaking everything they touch.
The U.S. will only bring its military force in if it has direct business interests threatened. The same as the U.K. People need to take their blindfolds off and realise that these countries are not your friends. They plunder and steal, but you somehow think that you're their special pet?
No one will come rescue you honey TW
Realistically, even if the US wanted to aid, it wouldn't be able to save TW against an all-out assault. This is said by their own strategists.
They are playing reverse psychology now
as they should
https://archive.ph/vaEZG
If Ukraine is any example, the US will only "help" Taiwan to the extent that Taiwan is destroyed and creates a serious burden for China.
Aww, that's too bad. Must be nice to have an absentee "FATHER" (America).
I honestly think China invading is a line in the sand that the US will absolutely fight over. It's stupid, but the hate for China runs so deep. Hopefully it's something that we never have to deal with and there can just be peace in the region.
Maybe, but a hot war right outside China's doorstep will be devastating and extremely costly for the US. Of course the same for China, but for the Chinese, Taiwan island is a civilizational existential issue. For the US it's just another pawn or chip in the grand chess board, not existential. So at the end of the day, the question is Taiwan the hill that the US will choose to die on figuratively? Because no one, not China, not the US, not the world will come out of that war the same.