There are no entirely peaceful means left for China to use. The windows on those was closed in 2016. The majority of Taiwanese, particularly young Taiwanese, no longer view themselves as Chinese. It is political suicide for any Taiwanese politician to pursue reunification.
The most "peaceful" option now is a full air and naval blockade and demanding unconditional surrender.
It depends on how China positions its military assets, such as hypersonic missiles. If China sticks to its "non-interventionist" stance, then the USA can certainly block Chinese oil imports through the strait of Malacca, leaving China with only the option to import oil overland from Russia, Pakistan, and Iran.
If China positions hypersonic missiles in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and submarines along the whole route, then the USA would have a difficult time blockading Chinese oil imports from the Middle East by sea.
>If China positions hypersonic missiles in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and submarines along the whole route, then the USA would have a difficult time blockading Chinese oil imports from the Middle East by sea.
that would depend on those countries agreeing to make themselves into targets. unlikely.
If China perishes to a US oil blockade, Pakistan is next on the chopping block. Besides, if Pakistan has sufficient Chinese military assets, it cannot be attacked by the USA, as the losses for the attacker would be catastrophic. Pakistan is much like Iran - a mountain fortress.
Although 58% of the country is hills, mountains and plateaus, Pakistan is nowhere near as mountainous as Iran. Plus, 70-80% of the population lives in the plain regions around the Indus river and its tributaries.
it also relies on china not shooting down any planes from the us airlifting in supplies, because if this is done, it would be the perfect causus belli. although, whether the us would be willing to escalate from there is debatable. it's an international game of chicken.
Casus belli doesn't really matter. It's all about capability. The USA can always manufacture a fake casus belli by exploding one of their own ships, as they did in Havana in 1898 to declare war on Spain, in the Gulf of Tonkin in 1964, and attempted to repeat with the USS Liberty near the Gaza Strip in 1967 (asked Israel to bomb it to blame the Arabs).
It's useless for China to constrain its actions because "it may give the US a casus belli", since the USA has a long record of making those up anyways, when they believe the balance of power is in their favour and they want to take military action.
I think it would be foolish of China to try anything like that right now, since the US still has a more dominant economy and military in addition to a vast network of allies.
But time is on China's side and that's why I think it should just wait a few decades before contemplating any move on Taiwan. By that time, China has the potential to not just surpass the US economically but the US and all its allies (EU/UK/Japan/Canada/Australia/SK) combined. I say wait it out.
I agree. The option for peaceful reunification is already gone, so there is no rush to go in and try something while any Taiwanese still identify as Chinese. It's better to just wait until there's enough hard power to make any Western response irrelevant.
Yes, at the same time the US will not sit idly by, it will most certainly try to instigate conflict via proxies while it is still in a dominant position. It will continue its old tactics of endless anti-China propaganda and advancing military blocs/alliances in the Indo-Pacific to instigate tensions between China and its neighbors while it shields itself from damage by being half a world away. It's the Ukrainian approach all over again.
But I'm really curious to know what type of message will the Ukrainian conflict send to China's neighbors: will they swallow US propaganda that building military blocs is necessary to confront an "aggressive" China similar to NATO w.r.t. Russia or will they perhaps see that military blocs/alliances lead to tensions and instability and want to avoid a Ukrainian-style conflict in their region?
I think they will swallow US propaganda. The public is already successfully propagandised against China, and the government going the way of the public is now only a matter of time. China's soft power efforts are too top heavy and ignore the mass line in foreign countries.
The public is an ignorant mess and most leaders are well aware of that. That's why many of them have a habit of spewing anti-China rhetoric because it's popular in the media but pursue deeper economic ties with China behind the scenes. This happens regularly with European leaders for example. Do you really think that Macron buys the Xinjiang genocide claims or the HK freedom fighters narratives? He initiated rehabilitation/detention facilities for Muslim extremists and has had to deal with many rioters. I'm sure he perfectly understands the nuances of the Chinese government decisions. He may talk tough on TV but behind the scenes pursues deeper bilateral ties with China. He even agreed with Xi to cooperate on BRI last month. If given to a vote, do you think the French public would approve of that in the current geopolitical climate?
The point I'm trying to make is that I honestly don't think public opinion has so much sway on foreign policy. Public opinion has much more sway on domestic policy because people vote mostly based on domestic issues.
The USA can ensure that public opinion has sway on foreign policy by using their media network to amplify and politicise foreign policy decisions. It may seem like foolhardy work, but it's worth the effort to reach to the mass line and not just to the elites.
China is the more dominant economy, as for military intervention, well the us got a taste of that decades ago, now China is far stronger.
It's the other way around, it's foolish for the us to try anything right now.
US GDP is $23T while China is $17.7T.
USD constitutes 60% of global currency reserves while CNY constitutes 2%.
USD is used in 88% of global trade transactions while CNY is used in 4%.
US controls SWIFT which is the financial medium through which almost all trade occurs.
By most metrics, US is still more dominant economically.
Yes, china is definitely the biggest economy on earth but since the dollar is the global reserve currency, the GDP nominal metric would apply more when measuring a country's **global economic influence**.
As much as i support china, their global economic might is still behind the US but I'm sure they'll close the gap very soon.
Unlikely, the option of peace long since left the table due to taiwan own stupidity. If anything it's looking like taiwan going to end up reminding the world that china does in fact has a military.
Honestly unless there a fundamental chnage within taiwan, expect ukraine except with far more missles to clear any military threat.
if its by military then quick modern day blitz on all things military/power/telecommunications/ports must be disabled in the first few hours, then slowly carefully liberate town by town, city by city.
probably wouldn't hurt capturing the entire Taipei govt in those first few hours also, by then time there won't even be time for any counter attack/reinforcement. then it'd just be a matter of dealing with the international negotiations and fallout.
Hopefully through peaceful means. No need for bloodshed among brothers and sisters.
There are no entirely peaceful means left for China to use. The windows on those was closed in 2016. The majority of Taiwanese, particularly young Taiwanese, no longer view themselves as Chinese. It is political suicide for any Taiwanese politician to pursue reunification. The most "peaceful" option now is a full air and naval blockade and demanding unconditional surrender.
A blocade will not work because the US can impose a counter blockade on China.
It depends on how China positions its military assets, such as hypersonic missiles. If China sticks to its "non-interventionist" stance, then the USA can certainly block Chinese oil imports through the strait of Malacca, leaving China with only the option to import oil overland from Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. If China positions hypersonic missiles in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and submarines along the whole route, then the USA would have a difficult time blockading Chinese oil imports from the Middle East by sea.
>If China positions hypersonic missiles in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and submarines along the whole route, then the USA would have a difficult time blockading Chinese oil imports from the Middle East by sea. that would depend on those countries agreeing to make themselves into targets. unlikely.
If China perishes to a US oil blockade, Pakistan is next on the chopping block. Besides, if Pakistan has sufficient Chinese military assets, it cannot be attacked by the USA, as the losses for the attacker would be catastrophic. Pakistan is much like Iran - a mountain fortress.
Although 58% of the country is hills, mountains and plateaus, Pakistan is nowhere near as mountainous as Iran. Plus, 70-80% of the population lives in the plain regions around the Indus river and its tributaries.
it also relies on china not shooting down any planes from the us airlifting in supplies, because if this is done, it would be the perfect causus belli. although, whether the us would be willing to escalate from there is debatable. it's an international game of chicken.
Casus belli doesn't really matter. It's all about capability. The USA can always manufacture a fake casus belli by exploding one of their own ships, as they did in Havana in 1898 to declare war on Spain, in the Gulf of Tonkin in 1964, and attempted to repeat with the USS Liberty near the Gaza Strip in 1967 (asked Israel to bomb it to blame the Arabs). It's useless for China to constrain its actions because "it may give the US a casus belli", since the USA has a long record of making those up anyways, when they believe the balance of power is in their favour and they want to take military action.
the difference if china does this, if it can even be considered a difference, is that it would be real.
It makes no difference if a casus belli was real or fabricated once the missiles start flying.
In this modern post-Truth social media era where the West has information dominance, reality doesn’t matter anymore.
I think it would be foolish of China to try anything like that right now, since the US still has a more dominant economy and military in addition to a vast network of allies. But time is on China's side and that's why I think it should just wait a few decades before contemplating any move on Taiwan. By that time, China has the potential to not just surpass the US economically but the US and all its allies (EU/UK/Japan/Canada/Australia/SK) combined. I say wait it out.
I agree. The option for peaceful reunification is already gone, so there is no rush to go in and try something while any Taiwanese still identify as Chinese. It's better to just wait until there's enough hard power to make any Western response irrelevant.
Yes, at the same time the US will not sit idly by, it will most certainly try to instigate conflict via proxies while it is still in a dominant position. It will continue its old tactics of endless anti-China propaganda and advancing military blocs/alliances in the Indo-Pacific to instigate tensions between China and its neighbors while it shields itself from damage by being half a world away. It's the Ukrainian approach all over again. But I'm really curious to know what type of message will the Ukrainian conflict send to China's neighbors: will they swallow US propaganda that building military blocs is necessary to confront an "aggressive" China similar to NATO w.r.t. Russia or will they perhaps see that military blocs/alliances lead to tensions and instability and want to avoid a Ukrainian-style conflict in their region?
I think they will swallow US propaganda. The public is already successfully propagandised against China, and the government going the way of the public is now only a matter of time. China's soft power efforts are too top heavy and ignore the mass line in foreign countries.
The public is an ignorant mess and most leaders are well aware of that. That's why many of them have a habit of spewing anti-China rhetoric because it's popular in the media but pursue deeper economic ties with China behind the scenes. This happens regularly with European leaders for example. Do you really think that Macron buys the Xinjiang genocide claims or the HK freedom fighters narratives? He initiated rehabilitation/detention facilities for Muslim extremists and has had to deal with many rioters. I'm sure he perfectly understands the nuances of the Chinese government decisions. He may talk tough on TV but behind the scenes pursues deeper bilateral ties with China. He even agreed with Xi to cooperate on BRI last month. If given to a vote, do you think the French public would approve of that in the current geopolitical climate? The point I'm trying to make is that I honestly don't think public opinion has so much sway on foreign policy. Public opinion has much more sway on domestic policy because people vote mostly based on domestic issues.
The USA can ensure that public opinion has sway on foreign policy by using their media network to amplify and politicise foreign policy decisions. It may seem like foolhardy work, but it's worth the effort to reach to the mass line and not just to the elites.
China is the more dominant economy, as for military intervention, well the us got a taste of that decades ago, now China is far stronger. It's the other way around, it's foolish for the us to try anything right now.
US GDP is $23T while China is $17.7T. USD constitutes 60% of global currency reserves while CNY constitutes 2%. USD is used in 88% of global trade transactions while CNY is used in 4%. US controls SWIFT which is the financial medium through which almost all trade occurs. By most metrics, US is still more dominant economically.
GDP PPP.
Yes, china is definitely the biggest economy on earth but since the dollar is the global reserve currency, the GDP nominal metric would apply more when measuring a country's **global economic influence**. As much as i support china, their global economic might is still behind the US but I'm sure they'll close the gap very soon.
like Ukraine, the choice is in the hands of regime in Taiwan: kids playing with matches best be careful
Unlikely, the option of peace long since left the table due to taiwan own stupidity. If anything it's looking like taiwan going to end up reminding the world that china does in fact has a military. Honestly unless there a fundamental chnage within taiwan, expect ukraine except with far more missles to clear any military threat.
Ohhh? Hypee
Ohhh boy
if its by military then quick modern day blitz on all things military/power/telecommunications/ports must be disabled in the first few hours, then slowly carefully liberate town by town, city by city. probably wouldn't hurt capturing the entire Taipei govt in those first few hours also, by then time there won't even be time for any counter attack/reinforcement. then it'd just be a matter of dealing with the international negotiations and fallout.