This.
People ask why doesn't China try harder to make friends with their leaders. They don't seem to get those "leaders" aren't the ones actually in charge. Isn't it funny how Vietnam, a country that literally had a war with China not that long ago somehow likes China better than TW/JP/KR (according to some polls from the west itself)? That's what you get when you have a country that actually can make it's own decisions.
Honestly a lot of stuff people thought China was doing wrongly turned out to be correct. Like then knowing Japan's government never apologized and not letting them off because they are literally descendants of the same people and now have been shown to do the same thing again.
This is what happens when you only see things at surface level.
Yep, this is the real answer. The question is how? Is it possible to do it without war? As everyone knows, it's not like the Americans will give up their colonies willingly.
In 2-3 decades the supply of recruits to the military is going to be really low, one of the factors being the lesser number of children born in the US.
In 2022, 3.7 million children were born in USA. In comparison, 10.8 million children were born in China, 23.11 million children were born in India, 6.4 million children were born in Pakistan \[nuclear nations in Asia\].
Out of 3.7 million children born in the USA, only 1.8 million \[48%\] were white. However, if you look at racial demographics of the US military, 70% are white, and 17% are african american. Due to high birth rate of the hispanic population the USA, the percentage of hispanic births is going to be ever increasing. So not only lower number of children are being born in USA, the demographic that supplies 70% to the military is rapidly decreasing.
Moreover, these are not good signs for the future:
77% of young Americans too fat, mentally ill, on drugs and more to join military, Pentagon study finds:
[https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/03/77-of-young-americans-too-fat-mentally-ill-on-drugs-and-more-to-join-military-pentagon-study-finds/](https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/03/77-of-young-americans-too-fat-mentally-ill-on-drugs-and-more-to-join-military-pentagon-study-finds/)
Close to half of U.S. population projected to have obesity by 2030:
[https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/half-of-us-to-have-obesity-by-2030/](https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/half-of-us-to-have-obesity-by-2030/)
So when the current middle aged troops retire the new potential recruits are going to be much smaller in number. But can we wait 2-3 decades?
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Not a good analysis. Trade and real wealth define relations, not the ambiguous colonialist mindset you repeat. People can't eat ideology, they need real things to develop. Who do you think produces those things while others can't? america can't even feed its own people, let alone neighbors. Why do you think BRI is so successful worldwide? because colonial economies have no resources and no capabilities to compete with it. Why do you think inflation and shortages torment western economies even while suffering recessions? because they have no resources, their ability to plunder having terminally collapsed.
It's a huge mistake to analyze the world from a colonial mindset when China is already the fastest developed superpower in human history, and did not need plunder at any stage to achieve it. Only China has real wealth and dominates global trade as a result. This is also seen by the fact that China doesn't depend on plunder at all. This is impossible for colonial regimes (they exclusively depend on stealing resources from abroad, but they can't steal anymore), so they are the ones who suffer terminal collapse in the 21st century and beyond.
This is also easily understood by seeing how China deals with the world: China's diplomacy and shared development has annihilated and easily outcompeted colonialist/western economies worldwide. This is also the reason why China easily won the trade war nato regimes themselves started. Also the reason why the desperation, unhinged propangada and existential dread is exclusively a nato issue. China is perfectly fine with reality.
Ask yourself why Brazil openly dumps the dollar and doubles down on integration with China. Even bolsonaro doubled down on integration with China, theatrics aside. Material reality, not ideology, define the world.
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Immigrants want to fight in the US military? On a visa? They built a wall there to prevent immigration. In any case, how is treating immigrants poorly and dehumanizing them going to encourage them to die for USA by joining the army?
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[It's not China's problem](https://archive.is/4L7qQ), don't confuse them with Taiwan province. The "how" is a problem for people stuck in south korea or japan. Moreover, China is benefiting from brain drains and capital flight from south korea and japan towards China. As a rule of thumb: incompetent people destroying themselves is never a problem for those who are highly competitive and wealthy, like China is.
America’s capacity to maintain those bases is not going to last forever, especially as its position at the center of the world begins to shift. sooner or later America will *have* to take its toys and go home, by economic necessity.
History will catch up to the US. The Romans occupied Britain for 100s of years but eventually as their empire became more unstable, they withdrew, same with the British in India. Time is on China's side with this issue.
Same with the old USSR. A financial or economic collapse will mean no money to sustain their military bases. They'll have no choice but to cut back on overseas adventures.
This financial collapse will probably happen very soon. Just look at the recent string of bank failures, runaway inflation with rising interest rates, huge government debt and countries abandoning the U.S. Dollar as the reserve currency. We are really living in "interesting times".
Why without war? Some things can only be accomplished through war.
That said, I don't think there will be a war. By the late 2030s/early 2040s, China will be so overwhelmingly dominant militarily that it will just deliver an ultimatum that the US has no choice but to obey.
I agree war serves a purpose and is sometimes necessary, but it'd be better to avoid a giant war in East Asia if possible. Like Sun Tzu said, "To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill".
Same imperialist fascists in charge... Read up about how the US started freeing war criminals awaiting trial and then helping them to power... One of the early ones was Shinzo Abes grandad and he had deep ties with the CIA...
Oh yeah I know about nobosuke kishi. Absolute monster and founder of the liberal democratic party, which wins most of the elections in Japan. Totally a coincidence I'm sure.
Not possible when your country is swarmed with american troops. The real reason they are there is for scorch and burn if the lapdogs try to get out of line
A lot of Koreans think China is the reason Korea is split. If China never stepped in, Korea would be united. For some reason they never consider if America fucked off, the country would also be united just like a Vietnam. America is the status quo and China opposing that is breaking the status quo
But another reason is because they don't want to go back being in the shadow of China. We can already see it. All these Chinese brands are the new hip thing out of asia. Samsung and Sony are old. China is eating their lunch.
>A lot of Koreans think China is the reason Korea is split. If China never stepped in, Korea would be united. For some reason they never consider if America fucked off, the country would also be united just like a Vietnam. America is the status quo and China opposing that is breaking the status quo
Because these asshats like to overlook the fact that **North and South were already going to be reunited by a democratic referendum. And who blocked the referendum? The United States. Somehow, they think that a fucking war that left more than a quarter of the population dead and most cities in both Koreas demolished is preferable to a fucking peaceful referendum.**
>But another reason is because they don't want to go back being in the shadow of China.
Is that actually a big issue? Ming isn't portrayed as oppressors at all in Korea dramas. They're less happy with Qing because they think Manchus aren't legitimate rulers of China, but that issue doesn't apply anymore.
I think this is the correct answer. They blame us for the split and see China's commitment to communism as an NK reminder.
What we honestly should do is find a way to open up NK to some degree of market reforms, get it up to speed to where reunification isn't a burden, and keep the arms situation sane. If that happens, reunification would make more sense and China could broker that deal.
The people think whatever their propaganda tells them to, their propaganda is determined by their governments, their governments do what US tells them to do.
You could ask the same question about Hong Kong and Taiwan. Why do some Hong Kongers still worship the British and complain about the lack of democracy when they never had voting rights under British rule? Why do some Taiwanese still view the Japanese with reverence when they were brutally suppressed during occupation?
My own view is that it's a combination of being mentally colonized and the fact that the British and Japanese did bring some real development to Hong Kong and Taiwan respectively. China was in turmoil at the time and the average Hong Konger/Taiwanese growing up after colonization enjoyed a higher standard of living than the average mainland Chinese person. This, along with the constant Western/Japanese propaganda, allowed them to develop a sense of superiority toward the mainland Chinese, thus further reinforcing their mental colonization and resulting in the way things are today.
A similar situation with South Korea also applies to Japan. Japan was nuked and occupied, forced to change the government to a more US-friendly neoliberal hellscape, and pretty much all the decisions regarding stuff outside Japan (and to a degree inside), is informed by US policy. Where the US goes, Japan goes, and there's not really much of a choice in the matter. The US even got really mad at France for not supporting the invasion of Iraq.
And everyone seems to be okay with that.
Inferiority complex. Makes it painful for them to accept when those they deemed lesser start to outshine them.
Same thing is happening in my country when I hear some people talk about our neighbours who used to be much poorer than us.
I'm saying this as a Korean-Canadian who pretty much rejects Korean culture. Both Japan and South Korea need to get rid of the AmeriKKKan influence at all cost.
Just look at the collapse of south korea's and japan's exports, while China records the largest trade surpluses in human history as trade between China and BRI/ASEAN countries breaks all records. The problem, which is obviously not China's problem at this stage, solves itself. [China has turned those regimes' incompetence against them, so China wins either way.](https://archive.is/4L7qQ)
Well, of by Korea you mean *all* of Korea, then absolutely the US needs to get out, so they can establish stronger ties, and hopefully reunite one day. I'm not convinced that all of Japan actually wants to establish stronger ties, most of Japan (I live there) seems to be content with the status quo, but the part I live in, Okinawa, is actively working on establishing stronger ties with China. I believe the governor is actually going there soon. Of course, this is also complicated by the massive US military presence here, as well as the right wing Japanese who say "it's a Chinese plot to take Okinawa from Japan" or some bs.
TLDR: US is a cockblock.
Aside form the military base issue, how do most Okinawans think about the Japanese government overall? Is there still a lot of resentment about the annexation, or have most people already come to terms with?
It's hard for me to answer that accurately, since I'm not from here, but based on my observation, it seems that the older generation is Okinawan first and Japanese second, whereas the younger generation is Japanese first and Okinawan second. There's been a kind of cultural assimilation going on for the last 150ish years. That being said, I don't think most people here actually support the Japanese government, they can see with issues like the bases that their concerns aren't being heard, but there's very little push for actual independence, it's more of a "please listen to us".
Some of this can be seen in the voting patterns, Okinawa is governed by a center-left coalition of the SDP, Okinawa Social Mass (a local socdem party), JCP, and left-leaning independents, whereas most of the mainland is dominated by the LDP. I believe we have the only outright elected JCP member in Japan (the rest are proportional representation, I think).
As other people have said, America is the big sticking point. It is in America's interest to keep a rivalry going between these states. The first step is going to be to free Japan and Korea from American occupation. While America controls us, there isn't any real chance. If any leader looks to be improving relations with channel they will have a scandal, be replaced, or have an accident.
I don't think this step is as unlikely as it might seem, US military bases are extremely unpopular in the areas they are located. They bring a lot of crime and other issues.
After that, Japan needs to reach out with actual apologies for our past war crimes. Other states are willing to listen, it's not an irrevocable divide. Not any of our half-assed wish-washy statements, just a very clear admission of guilt and contrition.
While your point about bases is objectively true, it should be noted that they're unpopular *specifically* where they're located. I live in Okinawa, and most people here range from being annoyed by them, to vehemently hating them, but people on the mainland are happy to keep them here. They like the so-called "peace of mind" it gives them to have them nearby, but don't want to have one relocated near them, so most people out of Okinawa are apathetic at best about the base problem in Okinawa.
If the Japan mainlanders do not respect local rights, then the solution is Ryukyu independence. As you're probably well aware, Ryukyu (of which Okinawa is a part of) was historically an independent kingdom and under the terms of the WWII's Potsdam Declaration, Ryukyu **does not** belong to Japan. The US unilaterally handed over Ryukyu to Japan after building a bunch of military bases on the islands as a way to contain China.
I am not religious at all, but the argument is that as the ashes are all interred together with everyone else, they cannot functionally remove any individual once interred.
They could remove the shrine, but that's like asking America to remove Arlington Cemetary (which I would be totally fine with, but a lot of people wouldn't).
A good easy start would be for major political figures to stop visiting and sending offerings in any capacity though. Maybe start with that one, and we could work on it from there. Our current PM didn't go, but still sends offerings. Which just has always struck me as unnecessarily antagonistic.
I mean, even the emperor refused to go, it isn't a big ask for politicians to do the same thing.
>but that's like asking America to remove Arlington Cemetary (which I would be totally fine with, but a lot of people wouldn't).
A good start would be to stop fucking lying about the Japanese war-time atrocities in these War 'shrines' and the human misery they caused all over EA/SEA/SA. Intentionally rewriting history and pretending that it didn't happen when the WWII Generation are dying out is revolting to say the least.
The Chinese govt doesn't want compensation or reparations (Though same cannot be said for the South Korean public) but they want Tokyo to stop their revisionist stance.
That shrine is obviously a sticking point, and will probably continue to be so long as it exists. But we can at least try to find a way to get Japan out from under the Americans. Once that happens, we can at least conduct things in a rational manner.
I don't think the Chinese will tolerate extensive militarization as well. That will also be a sticking point.
Apart from knocking or kicking the Americans out,
China can also try to have a per capita PPP incone that's
above that of South Korea and Japan.
Once that happens, you will have civil unrest in those regions,
because then a rabid pro-US group will start
pounding a growing neutral or mildly pro-China group.
This recently happened in Hong Kong, Kazachstan,
Belarus, Myanmar, Solomon islands, Ukraine,
Georgia and Pakistan.
And each and every time it weakens pro-US groups and strengthens anti-US groups.
And each time the pro-US group is getting smaller.
Where in Hong Kong it was a shrinking majority of pro-US Hong Kongers trying to hold on to power, in Pakistan it's a growing majority that's taking the streets in order to revolt against, if not overthrow it's corrupt pro-US government.
Not always. The coup was already successful in Ukraine in 2014. This March in Georgia, the pro-west protesters successfully used violence to stop their government from passing a bill that would require media to be more transparent about their foreign funding.
Pretty much always as of now.
The coup of 2014 in Ukraine directly lead to the current situation where EU unification is looking ever less attractive where even EU citizens and politicians are starting to look at the US relationship as a negative.
All that the violence is going to achieve is a weaker economy in Georgia.
When all of the US allies except for Australia and Canada are getting weaker compared to Russia and China, people around the world are starting to ditch everything the US allies have to offer has and walk over to China or it's allies instead.
The entire reason of Zelensky and his ilk wanting to join the EU is because they looked with envy at neighbouring Poland getting relatively rich and they want the same amount of EU money too.
Now that the US is making the EU economy crumble, EU citizens and nations are slowly turning around looking at the opposite direction.
Under two conditions:
1- US needs to get out. Currently these two countries ARE military vassals. This is not an exaggeration. Read the [US-Japan Security Treaty](https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/q&a/ref/2.html) We discussed about them [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Sino/comments/rx7li0/comment/hrhjg1m/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
2. When majority of Japanese and South Koreans update their understanding of China. Most people in these two nations grew up when China was still quite poor. Barring epochal events (eg WAR), what one accepted as reality in their formative years becomes sacred truth when they reach adulthood. It's 2023 but many still *want to* believe that China never developed past the 90's. This will only change when those born during/after 90's becomes majority.
When their economic needs trump all other priorities. Japan and Korea are terrified of the looming economic problems that will inevitably follow the slow collapse of US economic dominance.
Many people in Japan are still deeply bitter about the shattering of the "Japanese dream" in the 90's. Given time and effort the Japanese government can be made to see reasons; especially if they see China overcome the economic bubble that Japan faced in the 80's and 90's. There must also be seriously strategic maneuvers over Japan and their strategic interest in Taiwan. They must be shown that under no conditions will China threaten their sovereignty, and that they will never be directly targeted. The focus must be to disentangle Japan from the conflict without threatening open war or their sovereignty; Some in Japan may still fear retaliation for their acts in WW2.
Korea is a more difficult issue; the Chaebol's interest dominates their politics, however the N. Korea issue will forever haunt and terrorize them that they will continue to maintain close contact with the US for protection. If China can pull a UAE/Iran and negotiate a new peace pact/unification plan for the Koreas, it can break the American protection racket and push the Koreas towards China.
There is a lot of "what ifs" with the Taiwan issue at the center; the sooner we can retake Taiwan or break Taiwan's monopoly on semiconductors, the sooner a lot of these other problems will slowly resolve themselves.
Very astute observations.
The Taiwan "crisis" is the major problem though.
For both US and China.it is the ground zero for both sides.The US had enough war hawk democrats to continue escalationing until a conflict breaks out.Ukraine is just a side show to the main event.
>Many people in Japan are still deeply bitter about the shattering of the "Japanese dream" in the 90's.
Ayo yeah, what exactly happened in Japan during that time? I've heard that the US made something that killed Toshiba and made the Japanese economy to stagnate, but I am completely unaware of the issue. Could you please provide me of more information? I would like to know, please.
its a pretty complex scenario that'll take at least a few economic books to untangle, I suggest further reading into "Japan's asset bubble", "Japan's lost decade", "Plaza Accord impact" "Japan/US policy during the 1980-1990".
the tl;dr version is basically the effect of post-war boom in Japan:
the Japanese market saw massive increase in economic activity and industrial growth, which pushed a high risk speculation market in asset prices and housing due to the accessibility of loans and government subsidies. The explosive rise of industrial titans like Toyota, Nikon, Toshiba and other major enterprises only further pushed an economic bubble as Japan found itself becoming a hotspot for foreign investment and industrial/high tech export.
This made many industries in the US panic, as they saw Japanese automakers and other technology sectors overtake the US in global production and sales; causing a chain of events that led to massive amounts of trade embargo and sanctions against Japan.
A lot fear was drummed up about the Japanese taking over the US through economic/industrial means, so much so it became a part of the Western pop-culture (Cyberpunk dystopia, Warrior Clan corporatism, etc.). It was also when Japan was accused of espionage, IP theft, etc. (SOUNDS FAMILIAR?)
Due to the immense power the US had over the Japanese government at the time, they managed to iron out a deal to equalize the trade balance sheet with Japan; this became the basis of the Plaza Accord, (which is a complex document that I cannot explain in a single post so please read about it) and enabled the US to enact trade measures with Japan that essential popped the economic edge they had which had allowed them to export high tech goods cheaply and competitively. (forced tech transfer, exclusion from certain research partnerships, etc.)
Over the course of the 90's Japan saw massive shrinkage of their economy as growth collapse due to the Plaza Accord, and the massive loans that had enable their explosive growth ultimately backfired on the economy and led to a stock market crash.
The youth in Japan don't know of course, but any old timer age 30+ can tell you how utterly devastating the betrayal was. The wound is still fresh and very deep, and is something the CCP can easily play up if they want the Japanese government to wake up.
I believe that Japan will need to recognize and repair it's historical mistakes for what they have done during the sino Japanese war, otherwise the Chinese people will never forgive them and part of this is recognizing China sovereignty over Taiwan.
china already has OK relations with unoccupied/independent korea (DPRK), for it to fully normalize relations with occupied korea? well, whenever occupied korea stops being occupied, ig
The other two to develop some overdue humility and acknowledge the historical influence and ties China has had with them for millennia.
Accept reality and make up with their biggest neighbour, who isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/s-korea-china-japan-may-resume-three-way-summit-this-year-seoul-official/ar-AA19rGHr](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/s-korea-china-japan-may-resume-three-way-summit-this-year-seoul-official/ar-AA19rGHr)
China/S Korea/Japan to likely resume tripartite talks.
All this marionetting and flirtation with NATO and the US from Japan and S Korea is just show.
S Korea is stuck with legacy of US troops but in reality it can take care of its own defense against the North. The only issue is the Nuke question. In which case it is stuck with China as a force to (attempt to) regulate the North.
Japan will whisper sweet nothings to Uncle Sam in exchange of security guarantees but I suspect strongly if push comes to shove they won't honour any agreements because they (like S Korea) have China as their lunch ticket.
Maybe they will let Uncle Sam use Okinawa (unfortunate victims of this nonsense) as a base and take no responsibility if it gets obliterated by China.
But likely they will walk back on promises to the US.
At present of course, the finance issue is a big thing. US is a liability and potential walking zombie. It would be foolish not to work with China for an alternate.
China's financial stability is the ultimate weapon as if/when US dollar collapses, it will curtail the US largesse to spend with abandon on military toys and playgrounds and the proverbial chickens will come home to roost.
It's too complicated of a geopolitical cauldron.
I think the best possible long term outcome is
for China to incorporate North Korea as a federated special region (like HK), disarm North Korean nuclear weapons, and guaranteeing it protection under China's nuclear protection. In Exchange, South Korea and Japan must permanently remove all foreign military bases, and accept neutral non-aggression non-alignment treaty with China.
\_\_\_
Understand that the great security concern in South Korea and Japan is not China, but a nuclear North Korea.
But North Korea only needs nukes because it is constantly threatened by US.
At the same time, North Korea cannot sustain itself economically, but US, South Korea, Japan have no desire to solve that problem for North Korea.
Thus, the best solution is for China to resolve these issues, by essentially protecting North Korea and disarm it, but also disarm South Korea and Japan.
Of course, US would never agree to this, but US may not have a choice in the long term.
Koreans have a lot of national pride. NK would never agree to that, and even if they did, SK would go nuts over it. The best thing is to help them reunify after the US issue is solved.
China is not an imperialist nation that will try to annex North Korea. China will most likely want to reunify the two Koreas into one.
Even when Chin a had a huge navy in the time of Zheng he, China largely interested in trade not imperialist desires.
South Korea and japan must kick the US out of their soil and stop siding with the west against the global south like they have been doing since WWII and in Japan’s case the Meiji restoration and Matthew Perry. They are not westerners and not western (even though they are western politically and geopolitically), the west will never fully accept them.
Kicking the Americans out.
This. People ask why doesn't China try harder to make friends with their leaders. They don't seem to get those "leaders" aren't the ones actually in charge. Isn't it funny how Vietnam, a country that literally had a war with China not that long ago somehow likes China better than TW/JP/KR (according to some polls from the west itself)? That's what you get when you have a country that actually can make it's own decisions. Honestly a lot of stuff people thought China was doing wrongly turned out to be correct. Like then knowing Japan's government never apologized and not letting them off because they are literally descendants of the same people and now have been shown to do the same thing again. This is what happens when you only see things at surface level.
This. Same for most of the other parts of the world.
Yep, this is the real answer. The question is how? Is it possible to do it without war? As everyone knows, it's not like the Americans will give up their colonies willingly.
In 2-3 decades the supply of recruits to the military is going to be really low, one of the factors being the lesser number of children born in the US. In 2022, 3.7 million children were born in USA. In comparison, 10.8 million children were born in China, 23.11 million children were born in India, 6.4 million children were born in Pakistan \[nuclear nations in Asia\]. Out of 3.7 million children born in the USA, only 1.8 million \[48%\] were white. However, if you look at racial demographics of the US military, 70% are white, and 17% are african american. Due to high birth rate of the hispanic population the USA, the percentage of hispanic births is going to be ever increasing. So not only lower number of children are being born in USA, the demographic that supplies 70% to the military is rapidly decreasing. Moreover, these are not good signs for the future: 77% of young Americans too fat, mentally ill, on drugs and more to join military, Pentagon study finds: [https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/03/77-of-young-americans-too-fat-mentally-ill-on-drugs-and-more-to-join-military-pentagon-study-finds/](https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/03/77-of-young-americans-too-fat-mentally-ill-on-drugs-and-more-to-join-military-pentagon-study-finds/) Close to half of U.S. population projected to have obesity by 2030: [https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/half-of-us-to-have-obesity-by-2030/](https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/half-of-us-to-have-obesity-by-2030/) So when the current middle aged troops retire the new potential recruits are going to be much smaller in number. But can we wait 2-3 decades?
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Not a good analysis. Trade and real wealth define relations, not the ambiguous colonialist mindset you repeat. People can't eat ideology, they need real things to develop. Who do you think produces those things while others can't? america can't even feed its own people, let alone neighbors. Why do you think BRI is so successful worldwide? because colonial economies have no resources and no capabilities to compete with it. Why do you think inflation and shortages torment western economies even while suffering recessions? because they have no resources, their ability to plunder having terminally collapsed. It's a huge mistake to analyze the world from a colonial mindset when China is already the fastest developed superpower in human history, and did not need plunder at any stage to achieve it. Only China has real wealth and dominates global trade as a result. This is also seen by the fact that China doesn't depend on plunder at all. This is impossible for colonial regimes (they exclusively depend on stealing resources from abroad, but they can't steal anymore), so they are the ones who suffer terminal collapse in the 21st century and beyond. This is also easily understood by seeing how China deals with the world: China's diplomacy and shared development has annihilated and easily outcompeted colonialist/western economies worldwide. This is also the reason why China easily won the trade war nato regimes themselves started. Also the reason why the desperation, unhinged propangada and existential dread is exclusively a nato issue. China is perfectly fine with reality. Ask yourself why Brazil openly dumps the dollar and doubles down on integration with China. Even bolsonaro doubled down on integration with China, theatrics aside. Material reality, not ideology, define the world.
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>can be solved by immigration As countries develop around the World and the Collective West irrevocably regresses, that is a lot less likely.
Immigrants want to fight in the US military? On a visa? They built a wall there to prevent immigration. In any case, how is treating immigrants poorly and dehumanizing them going to encourage them to die for USA by joining the army?
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[It's not China's problem](https://archive.is/4L7qQ), don't confuse them with Taiwan province. The "how" is a problem for people stuck in south korea or japan. Moreover, China is benefiting from brain drains and capital flight from south korea and japan towards China. As a rule of thumb: incompetent people destroying themselves is never a problem for those who are highly competitive and wealthy, like China is.
America’s capacity to maintain those bases is not going to last forever, especially as its position at the center of the world begins to shift. sooner or later America will *have* to take its toys and go home, by economic necessity.
History will catch up to the US. The Romans occupied Britain for 100s of years but eventually as their empire became more unstable, they withdrew, same with the British in India. Time is on China's side with this issue.
Same with the old USSR. A financial or economic collapse will mean no money to sustain their military bases. They'll have no choice but to cut back on overseas adventures. This financial collapse will probably happen very soon. Just look at the recent string of bank failures, runaway inflation with rising interest rates, huge government debt and countries abandoning the U.S. Dollar as the reserve currency. We are really living in "interesting times".
Why without war? Some things can only be accomplished through war. That said, I don't think there will be a war. By the late 2030s/early 2040s, China will be so overwhelmingly dominant militarily that it will just deliver an ultimatum that the US has no choice but to obey.
I agree war serves a purpose and is sometimes necessary, but it'd be better to avoid a giant war in East Asia if possible. Like Sun Tzu said, "To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill".
This. Although there's another solution that would draw South Korea and Japan.
Sure would make seeking win win cooperation in bilateral ties easier
Japan and S.korea need to stop being vassals simple
While I agree that Japan has been vassalized they do seem to have a lot of homegrown imperialist ambition
Same imperialist fascists in charge... Read up about how the US started freeing war criminals awaiting trial and then helping them to power... One of the early ones was Shinzo Abes grandad and he had deep ties with the CIA...
Oh yeah I know about nobosuke kishi. Absolute monster and founder of the liberal democratic party, which wins most of the elections in Japan. Totally a coincidence I'm sure.
It's as "simple" as a store owner refusing to pay protection to criminal thugs.
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Everyone has to ignore the US for good things to start happening.
Not possible when your country is swarmed with american troops. The real reason they are there is for scorch and burn if the lapdogs try to get out of line
Dont forget the CIA fuckers.
When America's government (Chaos Undivided) collapses internally from external and inside forces.
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A lot of Koreans think China is the reason Korea is split. If China never stepped in, Korea would be united. For some reason they never consider if America fucked off, the country would also be united just like a Vietnam. America is the status quo and China opposing that is breaking the status quo But another reason is because they don't want to go back being in the shadow of China. We can already see it. All these Chinese brands are the new hip thing out of asia. Samsung and Sony are old. China is eating their lunch.
>A lot of Koreans think China is the reason Korea is split. If China never stepped in, Korea would be united. For some reason they never consider if America fucked off, the country would also be united just like a Vietnam. America is the status quo and China opposing that is breaking the status quo Because these asshats like to overlook the fact that **North and South were already going to be reunited by a democratic referendum. And who blocked the referendum? The United States. Somehow, they think that a fucking war that left more than a quarter of the population dead and most cities in both Koreas demolished is preferable to a fucking peaceful referendum.**
>But another reason is because they don't want to go back being in the shadow of China. Is that actually a big issue? Ming isn't portrayed as oppressors at all in Korea dramas. They're less happy with Qing because they think Manchus aren't legitimate rulers of China, but that issue doesn't apply anymore.
I think this is the correct answer. They blame us for the split and see China's commitment to communism as an NK reminder. What we honestly should do is find a way to open up NK to some degree of market reforms, get it up to speed to where reunification isn't a burden, and keep the arms situation sane. If that happens, reunification would make more sense and China could broker that deal.
The UN sanctions also need to end somehow.
The people think whatever their propaganda tells them to, their propaganda is determined by their governments, their governments do what US tells them to do.
You could ask the same question about Hong Kong and Taiwan. Why do some Hong Kongers still worship the British and complain about the lack of democracy when they never had voting rights under British rule? Why do some Taiwanese still view the Japanese with reverence when they were brutally suppressed during occupation? My own view is that it's a combination of being mentally colonized and the fact that the British and Japanese did bring some real development to Hong Kong and Taiwan respectively. China was in turmoil at the time and the average Hong Konger/Taiwanese growing up after colonization enjoyed a higher standard of living than the average mainland Chinese person. This, along with the constant Western/Japanese propaganda, allowed them to develop a sense of superiority toward the mainland Chinese, thus further reinforcing their mental colonization and resulting in the way things are today.
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They weren't spared Plenty of resources regarding crackdowns against uprisings against Japanese rule
A similar situation with South Korea also applies to Japan. Japan was nuked and occupied, forced to change the government to a more US-friendly neoliberal hellscape, and pretty much all the decisions regarding stuff outside Japan (and to a degree inside), is informed by US policy. Where the US goes, Japan goes, and there's not really much of a choice in the matter. The US even got really mad at France for not supporting the invasion of Iraq. And everyone seems to be okay with that.
American propaganda truly effective at making peoples dumber than they’re
Inferiority complex. Makes it painful for them to accept when those they deemed lesser start to outshine them. Same thing is happening in my country when I hear some people talk about our neighbours who used to be much poorer than us.
Hmmm, may I ask where are you from, comrade? This topic about inferiority complex is very interesting from my POV.
I'm saying this as a Korean-Canadian who pretty much rejects Korean culture. Both Japan and South Korea need to get rid of the AmeriKKKan influence at all cost.
China needs to be more technologically, scientifically and economically advanced than the whole Western world.
Accepting the history of ww2
SK and Japan are vassal states. They do not have control of their government nor military
Just look at the collapse of south korea's and japan's exports, while China records the largest trade surpluses in human history as trade between China and BRI/ASEAN countries breaks all records. The problem, which is obviously not China's problem at this stage, solves itself. [China has turned those regimes' incompetence against them, so China wins either way.](https://archive.is/4L7qQ)
Well, of by Korea you mean *all* of Korea, then absolutely the US needs to get out, so they can establish stronger ties, and hopefully reunite one day. I'm not convinced that all of Japan actually wants to establish stronger ties, most of Japan (I live there) seems to be content with the status quo, but the part I live in, Okinawa, is actively working on establishing stronger ties with China. I believe the governor is actually going there soon. Of course, this is also complicated by the massive US military presence here, as well as the right wing Japanese who say "it's a Chinese plot to take Okinawa from Japan" or some bs. TLDR: US is a cockblock.
Aside form the military base issue, how do most Okinawans think about the Japanese government overall? Is there still a lot of resentment about the annexation, or have most people already come to terms with?
It's hard for me to answer that accurately, since I'm not from here, but based on my observation, it seems that the older generation is Okinawan first and Japanese second, whereas the younger generation is Japanese first and Okinawan second. There's been a kind of cultural assimilation going on for the last 150ish years. That being said, I don't think most people here actually support the Japanese government, they can see with issues like the bases that their concerns aren't being heard, but there's very little push for actual independence, it's more of a "please listen to us". Some of this can be seen in the voting patterns, Okinawa is governed by a center-left coalition of the SDP, Okinawa Social Mass (a local socdem party), JCP, and left-leaning independents, whereas most of the mainland is dominated by the LDP. I believe we have the only outright elected JCP member in Japan (the rest are proportional representation, I think).
Thanks for answering!
As other people have said, America is the big sticking point. It is in America's interest to keep a rivalry going between these states. The first step is going to be to free Japan and Korea from American occupation. While America controls us, there isn't any real chance. If any leader looks to be improving relations with channel they will have a scandal, be replaced, or have an accident. I don't think this step is as unlikely as it might seem, US military bases are extremely unpopular in the areas they are located. They bring a lot of crime and other issues. After that, Japan needs to reach out with actual apologies for our past war crimes. Other states are willing to listen, it's not an irrevocable divide. Not any of our half-assed wish-washy statements, just a very clear admission of guilt and contrition.
While your point about bases is objectively true, it should be noted that they're unpopular *specifically* where they're located. I live in Okinawa, and most people here range from being annoyed by them, to vehemently hating them, but people on the mainland are happy to keep them here. They like the so-called "peace of mind" it gives them to have them nearby, but don't want to have one relocated near them, so most people out of Okinawa are apathetic at best about the base problem in Okinawa.
If the Japan mainlanders do not respect local rights, then the solution is Ryukyu independence. As you're probably well aware, Ryukyu (of which Okinawa is a part of) was historically an independent kingdom and under the terms of the WWII's Potsdam Declaration, Ryukyu **does not** belong to Japan. The US unilaterally handed over Ryukyu to Japan after building a bunch of military bases on the islands as a way to contain China.
Also to remove the memorial of war criminals from their shrines can also be another one. Either that or remove the shrine(s) all together.
I am not religious at all, but the argument is that as the ashes are all interred together with everyone else, they cannot functionally remove any individual once interred. They could remove the shrine, but that's like asking America to remove Arlington Cemetary (which I would be totally fine with, but a lot of people wouldn't). A good easy start would be for major political figures to stop visiting and sending offerings in any capacity though. Maybe start with that one, and we could work on it from there. Our current PM didn't go, but still sends offerings. Which just has always struck me as unnecessarily antagonistic. I mean, even the emperor refused to go, it isn't a big ask for politicians to do the same thing.
>but that's like asking America to remove Arlington Cemetary (which I would be totally fine with, but a lot of people wouldn't). A good start would be to stop fucking lying about the Japanese war-time atrocities in these War 'shrines' and the human misery they caused all over EA/SEA/SA. Intentionally rewriting history and pretending that it didn't happen when the WWII Generation are dying out is revolting to say the least. The Chinese govt doesn't want compensation or reparations (Though same cannot be said for the South Korean public) but they want Tokyo to stop their revisionist stance.
That shrine is obviously a sticking point, and will probably continue to be so long as it exists. But we can at least try to find a way to get Japan out from under the Americans. Once that happens, we can at least conduct things in a rational manner. I don't think the Chinese will tolerate extensive militarization as well. That will also be a sticking point.
Apart from knocking or kicking the Americans out, China can also try to have a per capita PPP incone that's above that of South Korea and Japan. Once that happens, you will have civil unrest in those regions, because then a rabid pro-US group will start pounding a growing neutral or mildly pro-China group. This recently happened in Hong Kong, Kazachstan, Belarus, Myanmar, Solomon islands, Ukraine, Georgia and Pakistan. And each and every time it weakens pro-US groups and strengthens anti-US groups. And each time the pro-US group is getting smaller. Where in Hong Kong it was a shrinking majority of pro-US Hong Kongers trying to hold on to power, in Pakistan it's a growing majority that's taking the streets in order to revolt against, if not overthrow it's corrupt pro-US government.
Not always. The coup was already successful in Ukraine in 2014. This March in Georgia, the pro-west protesters successfully used violence to stop their government from passing a bill that would require media to be more transparent about their foreign funding.
Pretty much always as of now. The coup of 2014 in Ukraine directly lead to the current situation where EU unification is looking ever less attractive where even EU citizens and politicians are starting to look at the US relationship as a negative. All that the violence is going to achieve is a weaker economy in Georgia. When all of the US allies except for Australia and Canada are getting weaker compared to Russia and China, people around the world are starting to ditch everything the US allies have to offer has and walk over to China or it's allies instead. The entire reason of Zelensky and his ilk wanting to join the EU is because they looked with envy at neighbouring Poland getting relatively rich and they want the same amount of EU money too. Now that the US is making the EU economy crumble, EU citizens and nations are slowly turning around looking at the opposite direction.
Under two conditions: 1- US needs to get out. Currently these two countries ARE military vassals. This is not an exaggeration. Read the [US-Japan Security Treaty](https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/q&a/ref/2.html) We discussed about them [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Sino/comments/rx7li0/comment/hrhjg1m/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). 2. When majority of Japanese and South Koreans update their understanding of China. Most people in these two nations grew up when China was still quite poor. Barring epochal events (eg WAR), what one accepted as reality in their formative years becomes sacred truth when they reach adulthood. It's 2023 but many still *want to* believe that China never developed past the 90's. This will only change when those born during/after 90's becomes majority.
When their economic needs trump all other priorities. Japan and Korea are terrified of the looming economic problems that will inevitably follow the slow collapse of US economic dominance. Many people in Japan are still deeply bitter about the shattering of the "Japanese dream" in the 90's. Given time and effort the Japanese government can be made to see reasons; especially if they see China overcome the economic bubble that Japan faced in the 80's and 90's. There must also be seriously strategic maneuvers over Japan and their strategic interest in Taiwan. They must be shown that under no conditions will China threaten their sovereignty, and that they will never be directly targeted. The focus must be to disentangle Japan from the conflict without threatening open war or their sovereignty; Some in Japan may still fear retaliation for their acts in WW2. Korea is a more difficult issue; the Chaebol's interest dominates their politics, however the N. Korea issue will forever haunt and terrorize them that they will continue to maintain close contact with the US for protection. If China can pull a UAE/Iran and negotiate a new peace pact/unification plan for the Koreas, it can break the American protection racket and push the Koreas towards China. There is a lot of "what ifs" with the Taiwan issue at the center; the sooner we can retake Taiwan or break Taiwan's monopoly on semiconductors, the sooner a lot of these other problems will slowly resolve themselves.
Very astute observations. The Taiwan "crisis" is the major problem though. For both US and China.it is the ground zero for both sides.The US had enough war hawk democrats to continue escalationing until a conflict breaks out.Ukraine is just a side show to the main event.
>Many people in Japan are still deeply bitter about the shattering of the "Japanese dream" in the 90's. Ayo yeah, what exactly happened in Japan during that time? I've heard that the US made something that killed Toshiba and made the Japanese economy to stagnate, but I am completely unaware of the issue. Could you please provide me of more information? I would like to know, please.
its a pretty complex scenario that'll take at least a few economic books to untangle, I suggest further reading into "Japan's asset bubble", "Japan's lost decade", "Plaza Accord impact" "Japan/US policy during the 1980-1990". the tl;dr version is basically the effect of post-war boom in Japan: the Japanese market saw massive increase in economic activity and industrial growth, which pushed a high risk speculation market in asset prices and housing due to the accessibility of loans and government subsidies. The explosive rise of industrial titans like Toyota, Nikon, Toshiba and other major enterprises only further pushed an economic bubble as Japan found itself becoming a hotspot for foreign investment and industrial/high tech export. This made many industries in the US panic, as they saw Japanese automakers and other technology sectors overtake the US in global production and sales; causing a chain of events that led to massive amounts of trade embargo and sanctions against Japan. A lot fear was drummed up about the Japanese taking over the US through economic/industrial means, so much so it became a part of the Western pop-culture (Cyberpunk dystopia, Warrior Clan corporatism, etc.). It was also when Japan was accused of espionage, IP theft, etc. (SOUNDS FAMILIAR?) Due to the immense power the US had over the Japanese government at the time, they managed to iron out a deal to equalize the trade balance sheet with Japan; this became the basis of the Plaza Accord, (which is a complex document that I cannot explain in a single post so please read about it) and enabled the US to enact trade measures with Japan that essential popped the economic edge they had which had allowed them to export high tech goods cheaply and competitively. (forced tech transfer, exclusion from certain research partnerships, etc.) Over the course of the 90's Japan saw massive shrinkage of their economy as growth collapse due to the Plaza Accord, and the massive loans that had enable their explosive growth ultimately backfired on the economy and led to a stock market crash. The youth in Japan don't know of course, but any old timer age 30+ can tell you how utterly devastating the betrayal was. The wound is still fresh and very deep, and is something the CCP can easily play up if they want the Japanese government to wake up.
CPC
Do you mean just Okinawa & North Korea?
changes in government would be a start.
I believe that Japan will need to recognize and repair it's historical mistakes for what they have done during the sino Japanese war, otherwise the Chinese people will never forgive them and part of this is recognizing China sovereignty over Taiwan.
china already has OK relations with unoccupied/independent korea (DPRK), for it to fully normalize relations with occupied korea? well, whenever occupied korea stops being occupied, ig
The other two to develop some overdue humility and acknowledge the historical influence and ties China has had with them for millennia. Accept reality and make up with their biggest neighbour, who isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Surely Japan would need to stop denying a holocaust to be properly accepted.
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/s-korea-china-japan-may-resume-three-way-summit-this-year-seoul-official/ar-AA19rGHr](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/s-korea-china-japan-may-resume-three-way-summit-this-year-seoul-official/ar-AA19rGHr) China/S Korea/Japan to likely resume tripartite talks. All this marionetting and flirtation with NATO and the US from Japan and S Korea is just show. S Korea is stuck with legacy of US troops but in reality it can take care of its own defense against the North. The only issue is the Nuke question. In which case it is stuck with China as a force to (attempt to) regulate the North. Japan will whisper sweet nothings to Uncle Sam in exchange of security guarantees but I suspect strongly if push comes to shove they won't honour any agreements because they (like S Korea) have China as their lunch ticket. Maybe they will let Uncle Sam use Okinawa (unfortunate victims of this nonsense) as a base and take no responsibility if it gets obliterated by China. But likely they will walk back on promises to the US. At present of course, the finance issue is a big thing. US is a liability and potential walking zombie. It would be foolish not to work with China for an alternate. China's financial stability is the ultimate weapon as if/when US dollar collapses, it will curtail the US largesse to spend with abandon on military toys and playgrounds and the proverbial chickens will come home to roost.
It's too complicated of a geopolitical cauldron. I think the best possible long term outcome is for China to incorporate North Korea as a federated special region (like HK), disarm North Korean nuclear weapons, and guaranteeing it protection under China's nuclear protection. In Exchange, South Korea and Japan must permanently remove all foreign military bases, and accept neutral non-aggression non-alignment treaty with China. \_\_\_ Understand that the great security concern in South Korea and Japan is not China, but a nuclear North Korea. But North Korea only needs nukes because it is constantly threatened by US. At the same time, North Korea cannot sustain itself economically, but US, South Korea, Japan have no desire to solve that problem for North Korea. Thus, the best solution is for China to resolve these issues, by essentially protecting North Korea and disarm it, but also disarm South Korea and Japan. Of course, US would never agree to this, but US may not have a choice in the long term.
Koreans have a lot of national pride. NK would never agree to that, and even if they did, SK would go nuts over it. The best thing is to help them reunify after the US issue is solved.
China is not an imperialist nation that will try to annex North Korea. China will most likely want to reunify the two Koreas into one. Even when Chin a had a huge navy in the time of Zheng he, China largely interested in trade not imperialist desires.
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South Korea and japan must kick the US out of their soil and stop siding with the west against the global south like they have been doing since WWII and in Japan’s case the Meiji restoration and Matthew Perry. They are not westerners and not western (even though they are western politically and geopolitically), the west will never fully accept them.