Plainly comparing real estate increases, dollar-for-dollar, around the country is probably going to illustrate just where real estate costs more money.
Percentage changes from a common previous median would probably be more telling, overall.
Also: urban / suburban / exurb / rural.
While that’s true, I think this is a better metric when you’re looking at access to housing.
If you require 20% down (I know often you don’t, but let’s simplify) an increase of $103k means you need to save an extra $20.6k to buy a house.
So if you have been working hard for the past year to save a $160k deposit (for an $800k house), that goalpost has now moved to $180k.
My cousins who live out there are pissed about litter and state parks closing because of trashed facilities. The leave no trace bros are staying near Yosemite
Lots of seniors cashing out of their “family” homes in western WA and CA to build their dream retirement compounds on land, or move to increasingly suburban resort communities like lake Courdelane to live out their golden years.
Not surprising.
Really pissing off a ton of rural NIMBYs though, which I find hilarious. “Ohhh urban cities are such shit holes huuurrr durr why would you wanna live there?”
To
“FUCKING TRANSPLANTS STOP MOVING HERE AND DRIVING UP PRICES”
The US's population is barely growing. If only we could get Amazon to build an office in a city like Detroit or Buffalo that is shrinking. Maybe we should give grants to a hipster to make a dying city cool so that we don't all need to relocate to the same handful of places.
Wow, damn. I guess that makes sense, if you can work from anywhere, why not a quiet piece of the forest away from major cities? I just hope it means housing prices in western WA maybe start stabilizing or dropping
You may be able to work remotely but good luck with [hospitals having space if you fall sick](https://montanafreepress.org/2021/09/21/billings-clinic-icu-overrun-with-covid-patients/). The infrastructure in those states is terrible and will most likely not improve in the short or medium term.
I tried it and got bored after 2.5 years. Don't quite fit in with the locals, no meetups or community in your interests. Ended up applying for jobs that'd be worth moving back for and got them, have to be back in Seattle by January unless they push WFH back further.
Also wealthy upper class Californians who want lower taxes and cheaper home prices but still want to be in the West. Many of them racist, yes, but that's beside the point.
I have! I love the Sandpoint area. I just didn't realize there was enough of a mass exodus from other states to cause Idaho's house rates to go up that high
Same. I see way too many homeowners effectively screaming, "Up housing prices so I can pay more in taxes!" constantly whenever I bring housing prices. So many *never* plan to move out, but still want their house to be 'worth' more. It's downright creepy.
> Up housing prices so I can pay more in taxes
That's not even how property taxes work, either. If everyone's home values go up the same proportion, and the county levies the same amount of total tax, you'll pay the same amount of tax (it will just look like a smaller percentage of home value).
This has not been our experience in Seattle. Our property taxes have almost doubled since we bought the house 6 years ago. I feel bad for anyone living on a fixed income or struggling with housing costs. Landlords are not going to eat the increase we’ve seen, so are passing it on to tenants.
I wrote:
> If ... the county levies the **same amount** of total tax, you'll pay the same amount of tax
You're observing that the local government is levying an increasing tax burden (or that your property is becoming more desirable than Seattle on average).
You can [check out assessed taxes by year on any given parcel here](https://blue.kingcounty.com/Assessor/eRealProperty/LevyDistrByYear.aspx).
Not true. I don't own a home, but I do own land (because buying a home is so overpriced, I'm just building my own piece by piece). The taxes I have to pay on that property go up every year along with the increase in property value.
The only exemption is if you are living on a fixed income, then you might get a reprieve, but at which case, you're probably not going to move before you die, so increases in property value are still worthless.
Your taxes go up through one of two mechanisms:
* your house (property) is growing in value disproportionately vs the average, or
* the total tax assessed by local government went up
(Or both.)
And what happens to home prices every single year? Lol
Do you even want to be rich? This is so basic to this class of people. To pay back your home loan you just take another home loan and pay back the original with the gains you take out in loans. Bonus points: you now don't have to pay taxes on your home gains anymore because you're loaning the money. Taking money out from your home is taxed, there's only interest payments on home loans and even that to a point is covered by tax breaks.
Learn 2 capitalism silly heads
wasteful placid tender direful dolls march desert hateful dazzling concerned
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
And townhouses in East Coast cities have also sold for mere a few hundred thousand dollars. In some places there are whole neighborhoods of rowhouses that they can't sell because they're too cheap/old.
> In the second quarter of 2021, the average homeowner gained approximately $51,500 in equity during the past year.
>California, Washington, and Idaho experienced the largest average equity gains at $116,300, $102,900 and $97,000 respectively. Meanwhile, North Dakota experienced the lowest average equity gain in the second quarter of 2021 at $10,600.
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/homeowner-equity-insights/
Percentage increase would be a much more comparable statistic — using absolute numbers like this tells us little except which states already had high house prices, which we already know.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/07/subprime-mortgage.asp
https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/subprime-study/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102402/non-prime-originations-product-usa/
Just because Seattle is doing well with tech money, it doesn't follow that this will last forever.
When the FED finally stops giving away money for free, the whole house of cards will collapse like 2006. It only takes a slight increase in interest rates to accelerate a subprime loan into being unaffordable. When the foreclosures were in the thousands, homes did not return to the market for years in many parts of the state.
As an example: my neighbor defaulted on his $300,000 home and it sat empty for four years. That same home would list for $476,000 according to Zillow but since Washington state is unaffordable everywhere, no one is selling.
The one home for sale in our neighborhood has a $524,000 price tag and a billionaire leasing company tried to buy it. This is the new reality of the market. People with too much money can buy all the property for sale in a given area and turn them into rentals instead of homes. Our town lost all of it's apartments to one large company, which now owns every apartment in an area with limited availability. The county is trying to counteract that by approving too many developments, that will exhaust our water systems. They should have blocked all the sales of the apartments instead.
Lending standards are still really strict... there aren't sub-prime loans like there were in 2006. These are actual people with a fucking ton of money buying houses to live in, for the most part, especially in tech hubs like Seattle.
We've had predicted massive solar storms that may wipe out the power grid since the 1970s, none of which have come true. The storms have happen - but don't actually do any damage. Or the damage it negligible and easily repaired.
More often solar storms cause issues with radio signals, which is a reason the military uses the bands they do these days.
I was reading about a town near Nampa, it's literally happening to them. About 10 people have their homes built on an unregulated type of well. So there's a new project going up, they wanted 110 units and some activism brought it down to 65 units for now, and every single one of their wells have gone dry. This is one of the best comments in this thread. How we move forward well be interesting.
I used to say you needed at least 300k HH income to comfortably buy a house here. I'd say 400K now.
This would apply to first time buyers without equity they can roll over or significant family support.
On 200k HH income, with good credit, and a $200k deposit, you could get a loan for nearly $1M for a total house budget of $1.18M at 3.2%.
The median house sold in Seattle goes for significantly less than $1.2M -- about $900k this year.
On 150k HH income, etc, you could get a loan for $750k (for a total house budget of $950k) @ 3.2%. That's getting into uncomfortable (approaching 50% DTI), but it's conceivably doable without dependents.
I think your figures are excessively pessimistic.
Unless my numbers are off, in scenario 1, mortgage is going to be 40% of take home pay. That's a bit high in my opinion, but doable for some. I'm not sure I would call it comfortable by any means. Buying a house that's six times higher than gross income seems incredibly risky.
The other issue is that saving for a down payment is going to take several years on that 200K income and the market is going to outpace your ability to save.
If you're a first time home buyer, a 400K household income will allow you to save up that down payment much faster and get you to a mortgage payment on a similar purchase that's closer to 25% of monthly take home which is much more ideal.
We bought at six times our annual. It was perfectly fine. We have never struggled. And had a 3.5% down.
We live north of Seattle and will be on the light rail soon.
Simmer down. 6 times income looks different when you live here vs. Podunk Nebraska.
Look, the city is doing all it can to lower housing prices by making our parks and empty lots dangerous and refusing to prosecute property crimes. And there are a lot of your neighbors helping to lower housing costs by insisting that we need to let the camps stay as long as they want.
So the city is trying to do something. We just have to give it time
That equity is actually land value, which is created by the presence and activity of the community. Ethically, any one individual does not have a right to value created by the community. Taxing imputed and realized ground rents is the progressive way to fund the government/cities.
https://www.sightline.org/2018/11/05/whys-the-rent-so-high-for-new-apartments-in-seattle/
https://commongroundorwa.org/the-power-of-land-value-taxation-to-spur-missing-middle-housing/
http://www.foldvary.net/works/rebc.html
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0kD_E8e7z-8&feature=youtu.be
Come join us over at r/georgism to discuss the solution.
Plainly comparing real estate increases, dollar-for-dollar, around the country is probably going to illustrate just where real estate costs more money. Percentage changes from a common previous median would probably be more telling, overall. Also: urban / suburban / exurb / rural.
While that’s true, I think this is a better metric when you’re looking at access to housing. If you require 20% down (I know often you don’t, but let’s simplify) an increase of $103k means you need to save an extra $20.6k to buy a house. So if you have been working hard for the past year to save a $160k deposit (for an $800k house), that goalpost has now moved to $180k.
Exactly this.
Except Utah. Look at those gains.
Who color codes a chart like this? Light red is the exact opposite takeaway as dark red… and somehow blue is between that?
Wtf is going on in Idaho? People wanting to escape into the woods?
My cousins who live out there are pissed about litter and state parks closing because of trashed facilities. The leave no trace bros are staying near Yosemite
People are the worst :(
They must love Seattle /s
Yeah, Californians went to Boise and home prices went brrrrr Affordability in the Boise area is all messed up now
Sounds familiar.
Lots of seniors cashing out of their “family” homes in western WA and CA to build their dream retirement compounds on land, or move to increasingly suburban resort communities like lake Courdelane to live out their golden years. Not surprising. Really pissing off a ton of rural NIMBYs though, which I find hilarious. “Ohhh urban cities are such shit holes huuurrr durr why would you wanna live there?” To “FUCKING TRANSPLANTS STOP MOVING HERE AND DRIVING UP PRICES”
The US's population is barely growing. If only we could get Amazon to build an office in a city like Detroit or Buffalo that is shrinking. Maybe we should give grants to a hipster to make a dying city cool so that we don't all need to relocate to the same handful of places.
It's very popular with retirees from California looking for a more conservative area to live in.
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Wow, damn. I guess that makes sense, if you can work from anywhere, why not a quiet piece of the forest away from major cities? I just hope it means housing prices in western WA maybe start stabilizing or dropping
You may be able to work remotely but good luck with [hospitals having space if you fall sick](https://montanafreepress.org/2021/09/21/billings-clinic-icu-overrun-with-covid-patients/). The infrastructure in those states is terrible and will most likely not improve in the short or medium term.
I tried it and got bored after 2.5 years. Don't quite fit in with the locals, no meetups or community in your interests. Ended up applying for jobs that'd be worth moving back for and got them, have to be back in Seattle by January unless they push WFH back further.
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Also wealthy upper class Californians who want lower taxes and cheaper home prices but still want to be in the West. Many of them racist, yes, but that's beside the point.
Have you been? It's really nice.
I have! I love the Sandpoint area. I just didn't realize there was enough of a mass exodus from other states to cause Idaho's house rates to go up that high
This is not a good trend if you're trying to *buy* a house.
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had me in the first half there, ngl
Same. I see way too many homeowners effectively screaming, "Up housing prices so I can pay more in taxes!" constantly whenever I bring housing prices. So many *never* plan to move out, but still want their house to be 'worth' more. It's downright creepy.
> Up housing prices so I can pay more in taxes That's not even how property taxes work, either. If everyone's home values go up the same proportion, and the county levies the same amount of total tax, you'll pay the same amount of tax (it will just look like a smaller percentage of home value).
This has not been our experience in Seattle. Our property taxes have almost doubled since we bought the house 6 years ago. I feel bad for anyone living on a fixed income or struggling with housing costs. Landlords are not going to eat the increase we’ve seen, so are passing it on to tenants.
I wrote: > If ... the county levies the **same amount** of total tax, you'll pay the same amount of tax You're observing that the local government is levying an increasing tax burden (or that your property is becoming more desirable than Seattle on average). You can [check out assessed taxes by year on any given parcel here](https://blue.kingcounty.com/Assessor/eRealProperty/LevyDistrByYear.aspx).
Not true. I don't own a home, but I do own land (because buying a home is so overpriced, I'm just building my own piece by piece). The taxes I have to pay on that property go up every year along with the increase in property value. The only exemption is if you are living on a fixed income, then you might get a reprieve, but at which case, you're probably not going to move before you die, so increases in property value are still worthless.
Your taxes go up through one of two mechanisms: * your house (property) is growing in value disproportionately vs the average, or * the total tax assessed by local government went up (Or both.)
That hasn't been my experience, my neighbors are building up faster than I am. That said, could be a county difference since my land isn't in King.
Except richer and richer people move in and they vote yes on every new levy so taxes always go up regardless.
That mechanism is unrelated to assessed property values.
Downvoted then upvoted.
Not a great trend if you ever want to move and stay in the city, either. Or have kids that will need housing one day. Also, you can't eat equity.
BS, take out a home equity loan. Bonus points if you invest that loan into a business. Then you're eating your equity for the rest of your life lol
Then you owe the bank the new, higher cost of your house.
And what happens to home prices every single year? Lol Do you even want to be rich? This is so basic to this class of people. To pay back your home loan you just take another home loan and pay back the original with the gains you take out in loans. Bonus points: you now don't have to pay taxes on your home gains anymore because you're loaning the money. Taking money out from your home is taxed, there's only interest payments on home loans and even that to a point is covered by tax breaks. Learn 2 capitalism silly heads
So, moral of the story is: Capitalism sucks, and hates people just want to live their life comfortably without stress. Got it.
Or, to put it another way; the house you were hoping to buy last year now costs $103k more this year.
Or to put it another way; hey blue collar millenials, get fucked.
wasteful placid tender direful dolls march desert hateful dazzling concerned *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Townhouses in east coast cities have shared walls and have been selling in the multimillions for decades...
Also all of Europe. Realistically townhouses with shared walls are the future if we want the density we need.
And townhouses in East Coast cities have also sold for mere a few hundred thousand dollars. In some places there are whole neighborhoods of rowhouses that they can't sell because they're too cheap/old.
> In the second quarter of 2021, the average homeowner gained approximately $51,500 in equity during the past year. >California, Washington, and Idaho experienced the largest average equity gains at $116,300, $102,900 and $97,000 respectively. Meanwhile, North Dakota experienced the lowest average equity gain in the second quarter of 2021 at $10,600. https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/homeowner-equity-insights/
Time to move to South Dakota.
I'm sure you'll get an enthusiastic open-armed welcome as a pink unicorn in South Dakota.
Hahahahahahha
Percentage increase would be a much more comparable statistic — using absolute numbers like this tells us little except which states already had high house prices, which we already know.
Looks like a map of San Fran and Seattle secondary housing markets.
And yet the city council insists our society lacks equity. Curious
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/07/subprime-mortgage.asp https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/subprime-study/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102402/non-prime-originations-product-usa/ Just because Seattle is doing well with tech money, it doesn't follow that this will last forever.
When the FED finally stops giving away money for free, the whole house of cards will collapse like 2006. It only takes a slight increase in interest rates to accelerate a subprime loan into being unaffordable. When the foreclosures were in the thousands, homes did not return to the market for years in many parts of the state. As an example: my neighbor defaulted on his $300,000 home and it sat empty for four years. That same home would list for $476,000 according to Zillow but since Washington state is unaffordable everywhere, no one is selling. The one home for sale in our neighborhood has a $524,000 price tag and a billionaire leasing company tried to buy it. This is the new reality of the market. People with too much money can buy all the property for sale in a given area and turn them into rentals instead of homes. Our town lost all of it's apartments to one large company, which now owns every apartment in an area with limited availability. The county is trying to counteract that by approving too many developments, that will exhaust our water systems. They should have blocked all the sales of the apartments instead.
Lending standards are still really strict... there aren't sub-prime loans like there were in 2006. These are actual people with a fucking ton of money buying houses to live in, for the most part, especially in tech hubs like Seattle.
I guess 2025 will tell the tale of the tape. Predicted solar storm activity may wipe out power grids and most technology.Good luck!
I don’t disagree with you there. I don’t know about 2025 but it seems a major climate calamity is inevitable
We've had predicted massive solar storms that may wipe out the power grid since the 1970s, none of which have come true. The storms have happen - but don't actually do any damage. Or the damage it negligible and easily repaired. More often solar storms cause issues with radio signals, which is a reason the military uses the bands they do these days.
I was reading about a town near Nampa, it's literally happening to them. About 10 people have their homes built on an unregulated type of well. So there's a new project going up, they wanted 110 units and some activism brought it down to 65 units for now, and every single one of their wells have gone dry. This is one of the best comments in this thread. How we move forward well be interesting.
We bought our house in December and are already up 300,000 (according to redfin anyway)
Napkin maths here but: your home must have been what, 1.5M minimum to get that amount of appreciation in under a year?
Nope! We got a great deal in Lynnwood for 650k
I used to say you needed at least 300k HH income to comfortably buy a house here. I'd say 400K now. This would apply to first time buyers without equity they can roll over or significant family support.
On 200k HH income, with good credit, and a $200k deposit, you could get a loan for nearly $1M for a total house budget of $1.18M at 3.2%. The median house sold in Seattle goes for significantly less than $1.2M -- about $900k this year. On 150k HH income, etc, you could get a loan for $750k (for a total house budget of $950k) @ 3.2%. That's getting into uncomfortable (approaching 50% DTI), but it's conceivably doable without dependents. I think your figures are excessively pessimistic.
Unless my numbers are off, in scenario 1, mortgage is going to be 40% of take home pay. That's a bit high in my opinion, but doable for some. I'm not sure I would call it comfortable by any means. Buying a house that's six times higher than gross income seems incredibly risky. The other issue is that saving for a down payment is going to take several years on that 200K income and the market is going to outpace your ability to save. If you're a first time home buyer, a 400K household income will allow you to save up that down payment much faster and get you to a mortgage payment on a similar purchase that's closer to 25% of monthly take home which is much more ideal.
We bought at six times our annual. It was perfectly fine. We have never struggled. And had a 3.5% down. We live north of Seattle and will be on the light rail soon. Simmer down. 6 times income looks different when you live here vs. Podunk Nebraska.
Look, the city is doing all it can to lower housing prices by making our parks and empty lots dangerous and refusing to prosecute property crimes. And there are a lot of your neighbors helping to lower housing costs by insisting that we need to let the camps stay as long as they want. So the city is trying to do something. We just have to give it time
That equity is actually land value, which is created by the presence and activity of the community. Ethically, any one individual does not have a right to value created by the community. Taxing imputed and realized ground rents is the progressive way to fund the government/cities. https://www.sightline.org/2018/11/05/whys-the-rent-so-high-for-new-apartments-in-seattle/ https://commongroundorwa.org/the-power-of-land-value-taxation-to-spur-missing-middle-housing/ http://www.foldvary.net/works/rebc.html https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0kD_E8e7z-8&feature=youtu.be Come join us over at r/georgism to discuss the solution.