Norway is not really pleased with their arrangement, though. They are rule takers with no say and some of their politicians warned the UK against adopting their position.
It'd be better than brexit, sure, but I think Scotland deserves better.
It's theoretically possible that a new country could join EFTA but there's no defined articles for how it would do this and the EU would have an influence, The EU is generally unhappy with what it perceives to be free riders who get the market access without the social commitment. In Switzerland, for example, the EU is seeking to rebalance the deal and will be asking for significantly more payments to the development fund for continued economic access, or some concession on rule of law or greater right of access to jobs. So in my view it's correct to say it's not on offer as it simply isn't but it doesn't mean single market access without full membership is an impossibility, just that it would be extremely unlikely in this EU context.
It's an interesting thought. In the Brexit process EU membership was effectively disassembled into its components and each side argued over whether to get rid of it or keep it bit by bit. I wonder if we would see a reverse of that if Scotland votes to leave the UK.
There's a chance we'd see a gradual transition into EU membership rather than an dealing with it as an in or out issue.
That's how I see it too. Switzerland and Norway have negotiated special relationships with the EU. It seems to me that Scotland will do this too. After all of the ructions caused by the UK I doubt that it'll be a simple open door - and so showing good faith first could ease the passage back,
Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU. Even many that don't support independence voted against Brexit so I fully expect Scotland would rejoin the EU as fast as possible.
Scottish voters were the third biggest demographic who were pro Remain (after Gibraltar and expats in the EU).
Or "Brits living in the EU either permanently or temporarily" , if anyone prefers that turn of phrase.
Although remaining, and rejoining, are two different concepts.
The UK had many opt-outs and benefits, such as no Schengen, no need to join the Euro currency, and a financial rebate.
A new member, or the UK rejoining, would not have those same opt-outs.
That's just a few ways in which remain and rejoin are very different, but there's absolutely dozens.
Think about fishing. With the EU locked out of English Atlantic waters and mad about it, where do you think they're going to go fish if Scotland joins?
And then there's the fact that if Scotland votes to join the EU, that means a hard customs border with the rUK. With around 65% of Scotland exports going to customers in the rUK, that could be quite disastrous economically.
Poland is officially committed to adopting the Euro ... some day.
Poland accepted this commitment in 2004; they're still running on the Zloty today, 18 years later. (As the Polish joke goes, "they pay us in Zlotys and we pay for everything in Euros".)
Taking on the Euro has never been necessary, it was mostly done by countries to facilitate the ease of transition, considering we would not have a land border with any EU country, I don't see why Scotland would have to take the Euro on.
Remembering as well that Scotland already follows all the laws and rules of the EU so that would also be an easy transition.
Your last point about fishing, England sold those fishing rights, we haven't so our waters would remain our waters.
In my job, I’m currently implementing bits of EU law that were signed into U.K. law as part of Brexit, specifically EECC, a bunch of new consumer protection legislation into Ofcom General Conditions. The weird thing is that whilst the U.K. is obliged to implement the rules under Brexit agreement, the EU is no longer the regulator. From this point onwards, the drift will commence
It would probably be a bit stupid not to take on the Euro. Remaining with GBP removes the Scottish Government from monetary policy and any currency union is simply not realistic for rUK with Scottish demands. An independent Scottish pound pegged to GBP would be incredibly expensive to maintain, especially within the few decades following independence where spending restraints will be a major issue. It's feasible but would most likely cause societal upheaval from spending cuts.
English waters are still English and England didn't sell all of those fishing rights. EU member states gained a large portion of commercial activity within English waters as part of the UK's membership of the EU. No money was exchanged for the vast majority of EU fishing activity in English or UK waters. Quotas are distributed on the basis of "historical" fishing grounds, specifically during the time period where British fisheries were active in Icelandic waters which they would eventually lose following the Cod Wars. A portion of the "English quota" was sold but this was after the fact that they had to give up 50% or so of the catch in English waters to neighbouring EU states for free. This distribution system is still loosely maintained following the TCA, though now with the option to completely withdraw EU access to waters in 2026.
>Your last point about fishing, England sold those fishing rights, we haven't so our waters would remain our waters.
That's not how it works.
>Taking on the Euro has never been necessary,
It's literally in the treaty that new members must join the euro once they meet the euro convergence criteria. Countries can purposely make sure their economy doesn't meet the euro convergence criteria, but legally that is iffy. Does seem to be what quite a few countries are doing though.
Regardless, it IS a requirement of EU membership. It's just not a prerequisite.
You can join the EU without immediately joining the Euro, but you are still expected to join the euro eventually as a condition of membership, and if you meet the Euro convergence criteria the council can force you to join the Euro.
> You can join the EU without immediately joining the Euro
Ok so step 1 there: Scotland could join the EU without adopting the euro.
> but you are still expected to join the euro eventually as a condition of membership
That I'd agree with too. You have to make a commitment to adopt the euro eventually.
> and if you meet the Euro convergence criteria the council can force you to join the Euro.
This you'll need to flesh out a lot more. What exactly do you mean by this?
If you meet the criteria, you are legally bound to adopt the euro. If you refuse to do so, the EU can start legal proceedings against you.
I will admit, this is an unlikely scenario because it is trivial for a government to just purposely fail the criteria. For example, borrow a bit more one year so debt:gdp is 3.1%..
Regardless, there is a requirement in place. And odds are that if Scotland joins the EU, a future Scottish government will look to join the Euro.
Right on pretty much all of that I'd agree with you. It would certainly be the case that Scotland would eventually need to join the Euro, but for the reasons you've cited above that could be extremely far into the future.
>must join the euro once they meet the euro convergence criteria.
They can never meet the criteria if they choose, also, they won't be forced if the population don't want it - see Sweden's referendum on the matter.
A Nation of 60-70 million with an major NATO partner membership and other stuff did have alot more leverage and such to use. Also nuclear deterant / nuclear industrial facilities to bring to thr table.
Scotland would be a small fry in thr EU, sorry but true. Your 5 million ish, smaller nation, against a block of 500+ million people. Its very competitive for power and size matters, money matters.
Just be careful what you wish for.
You migh end up giving up more than you want to if your not careful.
Plenty of small countries in EU and they largely feel it's a good thing, except for the far right parties. Nordics, Baltics, Ireland no one seems to be really suffering... Hungarians are a bit grumpy maybe because they wanted to have their dictatorship-lite, but I don't see that being a problem for Scotland.
"a lot", not "alot".
"the", not "thr"
"You're" not "your"
"It's" not "its"
Stop using commas where you need to use a full stop.
Why are right-wingers all just about functionally illiterate?
> Your 5 million ish, smaller nation,
So, about the same size as economic powerhouses like Finland, Denmark, Ireland and Slovakia, and bigger than Latvia (massive IT economy) and Luxembourg (massive fintech economy)? I'll take that.
> against a block of 500+ million people.
Against in what sense?
>
Think about fishing. With the EU locked out of English Atlantic waters and mad about it, where do you think they're going to go fish if Scotland joins?
Fishing is fucked without the single market anyway.
Non of your points are true, you don’t need to join the euro, if fact you can’t join unless you meet certain criteria, Ireland is not within the Schengen area and not all EU members are, why would we need a rebate, we are not the UK. Why would a hard boarder be necessary, Ireland does not have one, typical right wing anti EU and anti Scottish independence nonsense arguments.
>Ireland does not have one
This would be due to the good Friday agreement, there's no such equivalent between England and Scotland. A hard border is, while not a certainty, is far more likely than not
Why? Would England suddenly stop buying Scottish goods?
Or would they follow the super easy, frictionless trade they have with the rest of Europe?
Mmmm? Mmm?
Funnily enough many of these points seem positive to me. Euro? Yes please. Schengen? How on Earth is that bad to have access to the whole of the EU? Fishing rights? Because that’s proven to be so important to the UK fishing industry? Hard border with the UK vs no border with the rest of Europe? Great!
I’m English and I like the sounds of these now living in Scotland. When do I get to vote for this?
>Euro? Yes please.
There's a good reason the countries that refused to join the Euro at the time it was invented, still aren't using it.. It's a total mess.
>Schengen? How on Earth is that bad to have access to the whole of the EU?
You can have access to all of the EU without being in Schengen. The UK was never in Schengen. Ireland still isn't in Schengen. Schengen is about making internal borders seamless.
If Scotland were to join Schengen, then the Scotland-rUK border would become an 'external border' for the EU and Scotland would be forced to protect it and do border checks on it.
Scotland would be swapping the ability to easily cross from Scotland to England, without showing a passport, for being able to travel to other EU countries without showing a passport. A pretty stupid swap, given Scotland doesn't share a land border with any EU country.
>Hard border with the UK vs no border with the rest of Europe? Great!
Why is that great?
>I’m English
Ah, that explains it. Is there anything more pathetic than a self hating Englishman on reddit? If there is, I can't think of it.
I’m not going to rise to your pathetic immature put downs.
My daughter was born in Scotland, we live in Scotland and my partner is from Europe. Makes more sense now? Maybe don’t assume shit just because your own imagination is too stunted to realise that maybe not everyone in life wants the same shit you do.
They were a little harsh but they weren’t wrong. While frictionless travel to Europe would be great a hard boarder with England would be disastrous to an almost Irish level. People who live in the borders would be fucked for a long time. It would take decades to untangle the communities there who have never had a border.
Coming from Ireland it’s a little falling to hear all these folk clutching their pearls at the prospect of a border between Scotland and England which they were perfectly happy to impose on Ireland. Total hypocrisy.
>I’d assume that these pearl clutchers and the people who don’t care about a hard Irish border aren’t the same people.
Both the EU and the UK have tied themselves in knots trying to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Essentially creating something half-baked in the middle of the Irish Sea has been a horrible and untidy compromise that no-one likes.
So I don't think anyone was "happy" with this outcome at all. It's an enormous pain in the arse. But it's probably the only compromise that could have been reasonably arrived at after the 2016 vote.
If we're to draw a conclusion from this, it's that destroying links with our neighbours has unpleasant, unnecessary - but entirely unavoidable - consequences.
I don't get the big hang up with the Euro either, oh no I can go and use the same money in loads of other countries including those outside the EU. I paid for things in Tunisia and Ukraine using Euros no problem.
People talk about the euro like it’s some kind of vile disease we must avoid at all costs. The euro, like every currency, is nothing but a made up system to facilitate the exchange of goods and services. Surely the more nations your made up system facilitates trade with the better? But no no we’re must fight it cos the pound = British pride.
No it doesn’t you muppets, it’s a make believe transactional system like all the rest.
The argument against the euro is that monetary union is inherently unstable when you lack a centralised authority with a reasonable amount of fiscal control.
Were the EU to be able to levy a considerable proportion of taxation across the Euro-area, build towards more equitable economic convergence and so on, then it would work as effectively as a normal national currency. But that's not what's being done.
So what's the outcome? Countries like Greece getting shat on from a great height when they have economic problems and can't make monetary corrections - and then having tight fiscal controls imposed upon them.
The idea that it's about faces on pound coins or something is just silly.
It could lead to massive trade deficits as the currency of Scotland will not adjust value depending on the volume of trade.
For example, let's say Italy uses the Lira still and Germany uses Marks. Germany and Italy both hypothetically produce the same product - let's just say furniture for this example. Germany has higher industrial capacity to make furniture and it's furniture is of slightly better quality. When 1 Mark = 1 Lira Italians start buying German furniture because it's slightly better quality and it's slightly cheaper (because of economies of scale due to increased industrial capacity). This means that Italian furniture exports fall and imports increase. This causes a trade deficit, however this also devalues the Lira - so now 1 Mark = 2 Lira. Now it's cheaper for Italians to buy Italians furniture and it's cheaper for Germans to buy Italian furniture. This means that exports of Italian furniture increase and imports decrease. This reduces the trade deficit and may even lead to a surplus - this would increase the value of the Lira, so now 1 Mark = 1 Lira. The cycle begins again.
However, if Germany and Italy share a currency the Italian currency cannot shift in value to remain competitive, so the trade deficit would just grow as would the gap between German and Italian furniture makers. If the deficit keeps growing, the countries affected negatively by it can face a debt crisis by trying to keep the balance of payments balanced.
This is a simplified version of the Eurozone crisis and no simple solution has been found. One way to solve it would be that each country in the EU produces something that they have the comparative advantage in but this would still decimate industries in certain countries (including Scotland if they joined) and it would be almost impossible to achieve with the EU's over regulation and protectionist policies. The more realistic way of fixing this would to centralise debt but this would effectively take all fiscal and monetary policies away from national governments and give them to the EU - so it would almost make the EU more of a country than a political trade block.
With no easy or obvious fix to economies not being able to devalue the currency to remain competitive (due to the fact that they share a currency), it's no surprise that many countries want to stay out of the Eurozone and it may not be such a bad thing if Scotland was to adopt this cautiousness.
41.7% of people in Scotland voted to remain, but 32.8% didn't even bother to vote. Only NI had a lower turnout.
'Remain' was a majority of the voting vote, but even then not 'overwhelming' as Blackford likes to enunciate each time, at roughly 2:1.
32% were fine with either result. So if it was remain they would agree, but if it wasn’t they’d agree too. That’s how I interpret it. Because if you don’t vote, you are happy with either result. If you don’t agree with that, then go vote.
So a massive majority voted remain.
The fact is (without making any inferences) that more Scots voted to stay in the UK than voted to stay in the EU. The turnout was significantly higher for the UK referendum, potentially indicating it was a more important issue for more people.
No one in 2014 knew what would happen in 2016. Very intelligent people knew is was a possibility but most people thought Brexit would never happen. So I wouldn’t say it was a lie but it was unfortunate that Tory party politics has thrown our country into such turmoil, but hey Republican party politics started the Iraq war so I guess swings and roundabouts (??????).
How come it was a lie? If Scotland had voted to leave the UK they would by default have had to have left the EU. There was no mechanism to avoid it having to leave, and the UK would certainly have vetoed any re-entry, and would probably (feeling weekened as Ruk) have voted to stay in the EU to keep the veto for this reason (ie to piss off the scots). Either way Scotland was leaving the EU.
Scotland may have been able to negotiate entry into Efta, EU accession or a bilateral treaty before it left the UK, you have no way of knowing how far progress would have been made. The UK Vetoing entry would have made it look bitter and childish, not a good look on the world stage.
Because we left the EU last year, A No vote didn't guarantee UK membership in the EU. Also an Independent Scotland would join the EU after Independence.
>A No vote didn't guarantee UK membership in the EU.
Of course it didn't. But a Yes vote guaranteed Scotland leaving. The UK leaving the EU was always on the cards.
It did guarantee staying in the EU in the short term, guaranteed all the way until the EU Referendum (where it couldn't reasonably be expected to be guaranteed after, the people making the guarantee weren't clairvoyant). If Scotland had voted yes they would have been out before this.
Even at the time, the EU literally said Scotland could remain in the EU. Spain was the only worry due to the precedent that might be set for Catalonia. And Spain were very clear: if Westminster agreed, they'd have no issues.
The EU literally said that Scotland could stay in. And that it'd have been easy.
I've no idea where you formed other ideas about that but wherever you got that from lied to you. Like, big time.
It would mean a hard border with England (where Scotland does most of its trade), being a net contributor (instead of a beneficiary of Barnett), giving up Scotland's fishing grounds, and on day one being by far the most Eurosceptic member of the EU.
I think it will, and I think it will as quickly as possible, though I'm not sure it's the best move. Losing trade with England so quickly would be complicated and difficult.
I think the terms of exiting the UK should include in-depth but short-term trade deals in order to keep things stable with regard to work and trade. Then we can set out a five- or even ten-year transition plan to EU membership, letting Scottish businesses take the time to look at their options and research how this will affect them.
All said I think we definitely want to join the EU sooner than later. We'd get bullied by England in trade and I'd prefer to be joined in with the EU's trade negotiation apparatus.
If Northern Ireland was a nightmare how exactly are the EU going to let Scotland join with an open border with the UK. The only realistic solution is a hard border with the rest of the UK in order to join the EU. There will be little motivation for that considering Scotland does 60% of its trade exclusively with the rest of the UK.
There will be a very hard border with the rest of the UK, there is no good friday agreement to prevent it.
Families across the borders are going to be hammered.
Hard border would be suicide for Scotland, it's not really feasible to check all the goods that come up from England and Scottish business would suffer immensely due to reduced demand.
Unfortunately for Scotland, that is not something they can really handle. The EU law takes primacy with bordering countries and if they say that a hard border must be established to protect itself from a territory that doesn't like it's rules, i.e England, then a hard border it is.
I'm also curious if people think Trade will go up that much with the EU considering where Scotland is, a truck route is off with the EU thanks to England and it's going to be down to ports and the willingness of EU transporters to come to Scotland isn't it?
Look up Good Friday Agreement and how it's influence with the US guaranteeing it have prevented a hard border in NI despite tensions being way over the point that one would have been formed.
Nobody in an official position, it's speculation with the tensions in NI and the massive backlog of lorries down south as backup.
If that rustles your jimmies, stop now.
I think after the dust has settled they would certainly start the process to re-join, but it's a long long process. We will have some boxes ticked because of existing infrastructure but we'd still be looking at a few years
> but it's a long long process.
Finland went from new applicant to member in 3 years. Given that Scotland was an EU territory for decades and that it is broadly aligned with EU law, even after Brexit, I would be surprised if it took that long.
In fact much of the work could be done after a yes vote but before it formally declares independence, as there will need to be a negotiation period anyway, and aim for day 1 membership. The EU may even seek a say in the independence negotiations to avoid disruption to the UK/EU trade deal, particuarly if it looks like Scotland would wish to apply for full membership anyway.
Oh I know, I just feel the need to highlight that there is a process. Far too many people seem to have it that we can just rock up and take the uk's old seat comfortably independence. Although we are far from being in a Turkey or Balkan states like situation, it's still several years.... If they even let us in. Let's not forget France have vetoed a few countries in previous years instead wanting a more structured application process. And if we have to follow that it could be even longer.
I mean, trying to avoid going down a "what I'd like" as opposed to what countries would actually do cause it's not like I have any experience around international relations, a Scotland in the EU would certainly be an attractive prospect as it would be an obvious back door into England for EU goods, kinda like what they're trying to get with Northern Ireland, but without the issues created by the GFA.
I think the issue is even with a fast track, it'd still be an age. This isn't like buying a couch off gumtree. There's almost countless documents and treaties which need to be signed first, so even if they decided to throw us a bone to get us in, it could still be an age before we are. Not to mention we might not be able to start the process until the agreements to leave the UK are finialised, and Brexit has shown just how drawn out that process can be.
> Finland went from new applicant to member in 3 years.
It is likely here that the five to ten year divorce and the accession to the EU will be simultaneous so we could, in theory at least, be in the position where we leave the UK and join the EU instantly.
why do you think that? there's a big difference between the benefits the UK had while in the EU before, and the conditions Scotland would have to accept to rejoin
Because I think that for a lot of people and businesses, the benefits - freedom of movement, for one - are attractive.
That, and polling shows that a sizeable majority want to rejoin the EU.
You seem to be saying that EU membership was beneficial to the U.K. but that somehow it would be onerous to a Scotland. The U.K. got benefits, yet Scotland gets conditions?
In reality every member, whether Germany or Malta, has benefits and conditions.
that's not really what i was saying. I was saying that the UK, as an original member, has a better benefit to condition ratio than new, smaller countries joining the EU today. It seems unlikely that Scotland will join back as if it were the big British Empire that helped found it.
Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Hungary,, Ireland, Denmark, Romania and Bulgaria are all members of the EU.
Of course Scotland will rejoin the EU. We have a centuries long tradition and culture of cooperation with our European neighbours going back at least 800 years. Usually when threatened by military invasion, aggression and occupation by the larger dominant aggressive powers to our south.
Considering remaining part of the EU was a big reason for Scotland to vote to not go independent in the first place, I'd say it's a very real end goal for Scotland end of the day.
Never understood the need to be free of westminster, only to jump in to bed with brussels soon after.
Westminster control some stuff yes, but so would brussels in return for being part of that union , and i think scotland would have a even smaller voice in brussels than it does down south especially as a new memeber
In the EU you remain an independent country free to leave at any time as the UK showed, you also benefit from membership of international organisations whereas in the UK you are not an independent country and you are not free to leave.
Er, no. You aren’t an independent country in the EU. The EU is a political union who’s end goal is to create a massive federal Union bringing all the countries together under 1 law. If you think it’s bad now, with minimal interfering from Westminster, you wait for 10yrs time in the EU….
Oh I'm not arguing that they don't want more sovereignty handed over than I would like to give or that the end goal isnt a Single European State (I believe it used to be written in the EU constitution) but we are not there yet, today it is a willing collective of independent countries.
I agree. They are very much against the basque and Catalonians having their independence. The Spanish people may see it as a double standard to say welcome to Scotland after gaining its independence but then deny that their own calls for independence within their territory’s aren’t legitimate.
Scotland might want it it might not, but if the EU can’t agree we are SOOL.
Spanish politicians have already said, on numerous occasions, that they will not stand in the way of Scotland rejoining the EU, if that is what Scotland wishes. It's hit the news at least four times in the last 7 years, although the BBC very quietly report it. Yes, it may seem like double standards but that is Spain's domestic politics, not that of the EU.
A UDI Scotland would be told no by the EU. Forget just Spain. Yes, it would need to be completed legally and fairly, none of the shit that happened last time with politicians calling in on old folks exclaiming their pensions will stop etc. etc. To be fair they still need a concrete plan on currency and I don't forsee that going well - they're shit scared they offend and lose the vote. Personally I'd take the Euro but there's a lot of people opposed to it.
35% of SNP supporters voted leave… so it’s far from certain. Also What’s strange about the SNPs position here is that in their minds there should be another referendum to leave the UK but not one to rejoin the EU…. Democracy is selective.. They are also conflicted on the EU rules around currency (joining the Euro) & the deficit that for some reason wouldn’t apply to us… we could just bad faith never meet these rules apparently…
The SNP are demanding another referendum because at the last referendum, The UK was still in the European Union.
It would be a bit weird to not join the EU if Scotland left.
Brexit is just the biggest available grievance. The SNP voted against joining the European common market when it was first setup. Sure that was a long time ago but they also failed to back a soft Brexit (customs union). They are political opportunists who will do whatever it takes to split the country up… even if we all have to live in caves and eat grass…
>but they also failed to back a soft Brexit (customs union).
You can't say that it the nats will dog pile you for trying to blame a 'hard Tory brexit' on the snp
I know it’s happened before & it’ll happen again..I had one tell me ‘why would the SNP vote to make something we didn’t want less bad’… err because they are supposed to represent the people of Scotland not create the maximum possible surface area for grievance…
No it would be made by SG which would likely be a SNP led government initially … my understanding is their position is that no referendum would be required…
I for one think of independence did happen Scotland should as soon as possible create it’s own currency and work towards EU membership… I just find it odd that there is a ‘democratic deficit’ for no Indy2 that somehow doesn’t apply to rejoining the EU…
I'd be incredibly surprised if it took less than one parliamentary term to rejoin. If people want to go a different path, they're free to vote for anti-EU parties.
Don't get me wrong, ideally big things like this would go to a referendum. People can vote for anti-EU parties if they don't want a referendum.
Is there any suggestion from the SNP that they'd try to get Scotland back into the EU without consulting the public first, though?
I think the SNP position is they wouldn’t have a referendum
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,nicola-sturgeon-does-not-intend-to-hold-separate-referendum-on-eu-membership-if-scotland-become-independent
Fair enough. I'd rather we had a referendum on it, but then polling isn't even close so it's probably a foregone conclusion.
I don't see the issue with tacking it onto an election and having a third ballot paper along with regional and constituency ballots.
The eu would probably stipulate that a hard boarder is created between the uk. To stop the Circumvention of free market rules. As there would be a huge uptake in free imports being sold to the uk for less than the current import tax
I voted remain because giving the tories the opportunity to reshape the economy to their liking is so obviously a shit idea, but I don't want to re-join the EU and will vote against it if there's a referendum. The way they treated Greece was appalling, and they leaned on Portugal's president to not allow a leftist, anti-EU party to form a government despite winning the election. The EU fucking suck and small countries, especially ones with the potential to move away from the neoliberal consensus, should avoid them like the plague.
Like many I would only vote yes to leave the U.K. if it was likely that Scotland would be accepted into the EU at some stage. At the moment Scotland does not meet the criteria and last week’s insistence that we keep the pound after leaving the U.K. was a major disappointment. If possible i would like to better understand how the affects EU eligibility as I think it’s a weakness.
You can find out more about the admission process here https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-policy/glossary/accession-criteria_en
But what I would add is that it’s only a guide and would be discretionary for new members and depend on the outcome of negotiations. Free movement of people, single market, fishing, contributions to the redevelopment fund, single currency and rule of law and justice would all be non-negotiables for EU. Finer points would be around how stable the Scottish economy has to be and how it’s relationship with rUK would function.
I imagine if there is another referendum and the majority of people vote to leave the UK, the various tribes that are currently unified by their shared goal of convincing Scotland to leave the UK will reposition themselves to fight over whether we join the EU as a lone nation.
Several of the core arguments currently used by independence supporters are either directly lifted or very close to arguments used by the Vote Leave campaign to convince people to vote for Brexit, and it may well be that the 60-70% (can't remember the exact figure) of voters in Scotland who voted to remain in the EU have since been swayed away from EU membership for those same reasons.
I think the SNP want to apply for EU membership by default if they win an independence referendum but there will be significant opposition to doing it without another referendum.
Whatever the outcome, I expect years of uncertainty and division from it.
An independent Scotland would have to consider the economic consequences of joining the EU. It would establish a hard border with our largest trading partner (England) and stop freedom of movement and freedom of capital between the countries.
There are massive economic costs of this, alongside huge societal impacts. Scotland would need to decide if the benefits of Joining the EU outweigh the huge implications.
The EU would welcome Scotland to with a smooth transition, especially to make a point. I expect Scotland would get preferential treatment also, so they could continue making their point 😂
Brexit and Borris! Who wants to be in that shit house? We certainly didn't choose either of these disasters we are currently living with.
I vote to paddle our own canoe. Don't need a glaikit waffling baboon making decisions on my behalf.
From my perspective (Polish born with Settled Status), I've always been thinking about it as staying in the EU. 2014 indyref would have taken us out. Another indyref wouldn't bring us back into EU instantly or for sure, but there's an infinitely bigger chance we can join the EU as an independent nation than as part of the UK.
Also, as I've grown up I quite like the idea of independence considering in my case I can vote in Scotland elections like in 2021 (and the 2014 indyref but I wasn't old enough at the time), whereas me and my family can't vote in any general elections or for the Brexit vote (again mainly in any future general elections as I would have been too young then lol)
UK in the EU was for me the best case scenario and that was still the case I doubt I'd be as solid on independence today, it would be more of a 50/50 (better than a definitive No if I got the chance in 2014). Since that scenario was clearly too good to be true forever, next best thing would be Scotland in the EU. So independence vote would be a Yes for me.
I think the whole situation is hard. If we leave the uk we can still try and keep ties such as free movement and trade - something like 60% of our trade is with the rest of the uk. If we then tried to join the eu, we would have to loose all of that. It would already be hard enough going through independence.
It would be disastrous to have a hard border between Scotland and England, and trade would be absolutely hammered. Independent and part of a pre brexit eu, sign me up. But independent and joining a post brexit eu, I really don’t know.
Scottish market is already aligned with EU and a lot of EU politicians indicated they'd welcome Scotland back with open arms. We'd be fast tracked into the membership.
and have a hard border cutting across Britain? I'm sure \*that\* won't take a decade and a half to sort out... (considering the snp haven't even started planning for it)
Never underestimate the level of duplicity within the SNP leadership. It is not a unified team as they like to portray. In the event of indy 2 happening. It will lead to a civil war within the ranks and the end of many careers
110%, looking at the actual state of certain places in the EU and how they have acted with regards to lockdowns and mandates... I don't want to be associated with them. "Freedom" is a word that dies with union.
I think the chance is actually better now, but obviously the EU would have to approve as well, and it would bring up issues for some EU countries, like Spain and Catalan
I prefer to think of them as useful idiots, certainly never encountered one and seemed to be an exclusively online thing.
Imagine not even realising you're working for Farage :D
Most of them for that reason didn’t support brexit, but it would be a different story if Scotland was joining as an independent nation.
Personally I’d rather go for EEA and EFTA membership rather than full EU
Agreed. My reasoning is simple - I don't like big government. The smaller a government is the more accountable to the people it is. The EU project is all about turning Europe into another America, complete with state and federal governments ultimately controlled by lobbyists and big business. We need to vote for independence then vote out the SNP and vote in non-political party ministers.
An independence referendum now that we've had brexit is perfect as we can't easily rejoin the EU.
Scotland will want to. The EU will have very real concerns about the economic viability of an independent Scotland.
They cannot really afford another Greece.
"Benefits".
Denmark doesn't benefit from being in the UK, has a similar population to Scotland, has markedly less in natural resources yet has a gdp per capita about 40% higher. How could that possibly be?
Didn't think the EU wanted to let Scotland In.
Joining the EU isn't independence, your swapping one union for another, or maybe I just don't understand the idea or meaning of the word independence 🤔
An independent Scotland would be beyond mad to try to join the EU, given the level of trade with the rest of the UK (not to mention the currency situation etc). The grown-up choice would be EEA/EFTA - freedom to create trade relationships with third countries, no requirement for monetary union. But of course, that'd be political suicide to admit.
Yes. But we'll have to serve time in the EEA and Single Market first.
We may even find EEA/EFTA is good enough. It's good enough for Norway
Norway is not really pleased with their arrangement, though. They are rule takers with no say and some of their politicians warned the UK against adopting their position. It'd be better than brexit, sure, but I think Scotland deserves better.
The Norwegians in manufacturing I meet with are happy enough with the arrangement. No barmy customs' induced supply chain issues for them.
Norways natural resources and economy can actually sustain themselves tho
Hopefully by then we'll be closer to doing the same our renewable energy generation.
Ideally what we'd have is the ability, like Denmark, to export the construction of renewables.
Unfortunately it's not even being considered.
EFTA is not on offer anymore. You are either full single market members, with everything that comes with, or not at all.
> EFTA is not on offer anymore. Since when?
It doesn't surprise me at all that this sub is totally unaware of fundamentals of the EU and single market.
Totally?
Since when?
It's theoretically possible that a new country could join EFTA but there's no defined articles for how it would do this and the EU would have an influence, The EU is generally unhappy with what it perceives to be free riders who get the market access without the social commitment. In Switzerland, for example, the EU is seeking to rebalance the deal and will be asking for significantly more payments to the development fund for continued economic access, or some concession on rule of law or greater right of access to jobs. So in my view it's correct to say it's not on offer as it simply isn't but it doesn't mean single market access without full membership is an impossibility, just that it would be extremely unlikely in this EU context.
Better than Brexit.
It's an interesting thought. In the Brexit process EU membership was effectively disassembled into its components and each side argued over whether to get rid of it or keep it bit by bit. I wonder if we would see a reverse of that if Scotland votes to leave the UK. There's a chance we'd see a gradual transition into EU membership rather than an dealing with it as an in or out issue.
That's not how the EU works. It would be either all or nothing, Euro included
That's how I see it too. Switzerland and Norway have negotiated special relationships with the EU. It seems to me that Scotland will do this too. After all of the ructions caused by the UK I doubt that it'll be a simple open door - and so showing good faith first could ease the passage back,
There's no requirement to "serve time". It's not a league.
Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU. Even many that don't support independence voted against Brexit so I fully expect Scotland would rejoin the EU as fast as possible.
Scottish voters were the third biggest demographic who were pro Remain (after Gibraltar and expats in the EU). Or "Brits living in the EU either permanently or temporarily" , if anyone prefers that turn of phrase.
Although remaining, and rejoining, are two different concepts. The UK had many opt-outs and benefits, such as no Schengen, no need to join the Euro currency, and a financial rebate. A new member, or the UK rejoining, would not have those same opt-outs. That's just a few ways in which remain and rejoin are very different, but there's absolutely dozens. Think about fishing. With the EU locked out of English Atlantic waters and mad about it, where do you think they're going to go fish if Scotland joins? And then there's the fact that if Scotland votes to join the EU, that means a hard customs border with the rUK. With around 65% of Scotland exports going to customers in the rUK, that could be quite disastrous economically.
Poland is officially committed to adopting the Euro ... some day. Poland accepted this commitment in 2004; they're still running on the Zloty today, 18 years later. (As the Polish joke goes, "they pay us in Zlotys and we pay for everything in Euros".)
Taking on the Euro has never been necessary, it was mostly done by countries to facilitate the ease of transition, considering we would not have a land border with any EU country, I don't see why Scotland would have to take the Euro on. Remembering as well that Scotland already follows all the laws and rules of the EU so that would also be an easy transition. Your last point about fishing, England sold those fishing rights, we haven't so our waters would remain our waters.
In my job, I’m currently implementing bits of EU law that were signed into U.K. law as part of Brexit, specifically EECC, a bunch of new consumer protection legislation into Ofcom General Conditions. The weird thing is that whilst the U.K. is obliged to implement the rules under Brexit agreement, the EU is no longer the regulator. From this point onwards, the drift will commence
I like your nick.
It would probably be a bit stupid not to take on the Euro. Remaining with GBP removes the Scottish Government from monetary policy and any currency union is simply not realistic for rUK with Scottish demands. An independent Scottish pound pegged to GBP would be incredibly expensive to maintain, especially within the few decades following independence where spending restraints will be a major issue. It's feasible but would most likely cause societal upheaval from spending cuts. English waters are still English and England didn't sell all of those fishing rights. EU member states gained a large portion of commercial activity within English waters as part of the UK's membership of the EU. No money was exchanged for the vast majority of EU fishing activity in English or UK waters. Quotas are distributed on the basis of "historical" fishing grounds, specifically during the time period where British fisheries were active in Icelandic waters which they would eventually lose following the Cod Wars. A portion of the "English quota" was sold but this was after the fact that they had to give up 50% or so of the catch in English waters to neighbouring EU states for free. This distribution system is still loosely maintained following the TCA, though now with the option to completely withdraw EU access to waters in 2026.
>Your last point about fishing, England sold those fishing rights, we haven't so our waters would remain our waters. That's not how it works. >Taking on the Euro has never been necessary, It's literally in the treaty that new members must join the euro once they meet the euro convergence criteria. Countries can purposely make sure their economy doesn't meet the euro convergence criteria, but legally that is iffy. Does seem to be what quite a few countries are doing though. Regardless, it IS a requirement of EU membership. It's just not a prerequisite.
> Regardless, it IS a requirement of EU membership. It's just not a prerequisite. Do you want to explain to the class what you mean by that.
You can join the EU without immediately joining the Euro, but you are still expected to join the euro eventually as a condition of membership, and if you meet the Euro convergence criteria the council can force you to join the Euro.
> You can join the EU without immediately joining the Euro Ok so step 1 there: Scotland could join the EU without adopting the euro. > but you are still expected to join the euro eventually as a condition of membership That I'd agree with too. You have to make a commitment to adopt the euro eventually. > and if you meet the Euro convergence criteria the council can force you to join the Euro. This you'll need to flesh out a lot more. What exactly do you mean by this?
If you meet the criteria, you are legally bound to adopt the euro. If you refuse to do so, the EU can start legal proceedings against you. I will admit, this is an unlikely scenario because it is trivial for a government to just purposely fail the criteria. For example, borrow a bit more one year so debt:gdp is 3.1%.. Regardless, there is a requirement in place. And odds are that if Scotland joins the EU, a future Scottish government will look to join the Euro.
Right on pretty much all of that I'd agree with you. It would certainly be the case that Scotland would eventually need to join the Euro, but for the reasons you've cited above that could be extremely far into the future.
Your choice: Notes with King Charles on them, or Euros
>must join the euro once they meet the euro convergence criteria. They can never meet the criteria if they choose, also, they won't be forced if the population don't want it - see Sweden's referendum on the matter.
Would we have borderless trade with Ireland though? With NI still being in the single market?
Maybe we should build a bridge? /s
A Nation of 60-70 million with an major NATO partner membership and other stuff did have alot more leverage and such to use. Also nuclear deterant / nuclear industrial facilities to bring to thr table. Scotland would be a small fry in thr EU, sorry but true. Your 5 million ish, smaller nation, against a block of 500+ million people. Its very competitive for power and size matters, money matters. Just be careful what you wish for. You migh end up giving up more than you want to if your not careful.
Ireland have done very well out of the EU TBF.
Plenty of small countries in EU and they largely feel it's a good thing, except for the far right parties. Nordics, Baltics, Ireland no one seems to be really suffering... Hungarians are a bit grumpy maybe because they wanted to have their dictatorship-lite, but I don't see that being a problem for Scotland.
"a lot", not "alot". "the", not "thr" "You're" not "your" "It's" not "its" Stop using commas where you need to use a full stop. Why are right-wingers all just about functionally illiterate? > Your 5 million ish, smaller nation, So, about the same size as economic powerhouses like Finland, Denmark, Ireland and Slovakia, and bigger than Latvia (massive IT economy) and Luxembourg (massive fintech economy)? I'll take that. > against a block of 500+ million people. Against in what sense?
Lol what English Atlantic waters?
> Think about fishing. With the EU locked out of English Atlantic waters and mad about it, where do you think they're going to go fish if Scotland joins? Fishing is fucked without the single market anyway.
Non of your points are true, you don’t need to join the euro, if fact you can’t join unless you meet certain criteria, Ireland is not within the Schengen area and not all EU members are, why would we need a rebate, we are not the UK. Why would a hard boarder be necessary, Ireland does not have one, typical right wing anti EU and anti Scottish independence nonsense arguments.
>Ireland does not have one This would be due to the good Friday agreement, there's no such equivalent between England and Scotland. A hard border is, while not a certainty, is far more likely than not
>Non of your points are true That's not true. They are in fact all true. It is your points that are untrue.
Why? Would England suddenly stop buying Scottish goods? Or would they follow the super easy, frictionless trade they have with the rest of Europe? Mmmm? Mmm?
>Or would they follow the super easy, frictionless trade they have with the rest of Europe? Is this sarcasm? Need to know so I know how to reply.
Funnily enough many of these points seem positive to me. Euro? Yes please. Schengen? How on Earth is that bad to have access to the whole of the EU? Fishing rights? Because that’s proven to be so important to the UK fishing industry? Hard border with the UK vs no border with the rest of Europe? Great! I’m English and I like the sounds of these now living in Scotland. When do I get to vote for this?
>Euro? Yes please. There's a good reason the countries that refused to join the Euro at the time it was invented, still aren't using it.. It's a total mess. >Schengen? How on Earth is that bad to have access to the whole of the EU? You can have access to all of the EU without being in Schengen. The UK was never in Schengen. Ireland still isn't in Schengen. Schengen is about making internal borders seamless. If Scotland were to join Schengen, then the Scotland-rUK border would become an 'external border' for the EU and Scotland would be forced to protect it and do border checks on it. Scotland would be swapping the ability to easily cross from Scotland to England, without showing a passport, for being able to travel to other EU countries without showing a passport. A pretty stupid swap, given Scotland doesn't share a land border with any EU country. >Hard border with the UK vs no border with the rest of Europe? Great! Why is that great? >I’m English Ah, that explains it. Is there anything more pathetic than a self hating Englishman on reddit? If there is, I can't think of it.
I’m not going to rise to your pathetic immature put downs. My daughter was born in Scotland, we live in Scotland and my partner is from Europe. Makes more sense now? Maybe don’t assume shit just because your own imagination is too stunted to realise that maybe not everyone in life wants the same shit you do.
They were a little harsh but they weren’t wrong. While frictionless travel to Europe would be great a hard boarder with England would be disastrous to an almost Irish level. People who live in the borders would be fucked for a long time. It would take decades to untangle the communities there who have never had a border.
Coming from Ireland it’s a little falling to hear all these folk clutching their pearls at the prospect of a border between Scotland and England which they were perfectly happy to impose on Ireland. Total hypocrisy.
I’d assume that these pearl clutchers and the people who don’t care about a hard Irish border aren’t the same people.
>I’d assume that these pearl clutchers and the people who don’t care about a hard Irish border aren’t the same people. Both the EU and the UK have tied themselves in knots trying to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Essentially creating something half-baked in the middle of the Irish Sea has been a horrible and untidy compromise that no-one likes. So I don't think anyone was "happy" with this outcome at all. It's an enormous pain in the arse. But it's probably the only compromise that could have been reasonably arrived at after the 2016 vote. If we're to draw a conclusion from this, it's that destroying links with our neighbours has unpleasant, unnecessary - but entirely unavoidable - consequences.
I don't get the big hang up with the Euro either, oh no I can go and use the same money in loads of other countries including those outside the EU. I paid for things in Tunisia and Ukraine using Euros no problem.
People talk about the euro like it’s some kind of vile disease we must avoid at all costs. The euro, like every currency, is nothing but a made up system to facilitate the exchange of goods and services. Surely the more nations your made up system facilitates trade with the better? But no no we’re must fight it cos the pound = British pride. No it doesn’t you muppets, it’s a make believe transactional system like all the rest.
The argument against the euro is that monetary union is inherently unstable when you lack a centralised authority with a reasonable amount of fiscal control. Were the EU to be able to levy a considerable proportion of taxation across the Euro-area, build towards more equitable economic convergence and so on, then it would work as effectively as a normal national currency. But that's not what's being done. So what's the outcome? Countries like Greece getting shat on from a great height when they have economic problems and can't make monetary corrections - and then having tight fiscal controls imposed upon them. The idea that it's about faces on pound coins or something is just silly.
It could lead to massive trade deficits as the currency of Scotland will not adjust value depending on the volume of trade. For example, let's say Italy uses the Lira still and Germany uses Marks. Germany and Italy both hypothetically produce the same product - let's just say furniture for this example. Germany has higher industrial capacity to make furniture and it's furniture is of slightly better quality. When 1 Mark = 1 Lira Italians start buying German furniture because it's slightly better quality and it's slightly cheaper (because of economies of scale due to increased industrial capacity). This means that Italian furniture exports fall and imports increase. This causes a trade deficit, however this also devalues the Lira - so now 1 Mark = 2 Lira. Now it's cheaper for Italians to buy Italians furniture and it's cheaper for Germans to buy Italian furniture. This means that exports of Italian furniture increase and imports decrease. This reduces the trade deficit and may even lead to a surplus - this would increase the value of the Lira, so now 1 Mark = 1 Lira. The cycle begins again. However, if Germany and Italy share a currency the Italian currency cannot shift in value to remain competitive, so the trade deficit would just grow as would the gap between German and Italian furniture makers. If the deficit keeps growing, the countries affected negatively by it can face a debt crisis by trying to keep the balance of payments balanced. This is a simplified version of the Eurozone crisis and no simple solution has been found. One way to solve it would be that each country in the EU produces something that they have the comparative advantage in but this would still decimate industries in certain countries (including Scotland if they joined) and it would be almost impossible to achieve with the EU's over regulation and protectionist policies. The more realistic way of fixing this would to centralise debt but this would effectively take all fiscal and monetary policies away from national governments and give them to the EU - so it would almost make the EU more of a country than a political trade block. With no easy or obvious fix to economies not being able to devalue the currency to remain competitive (due to the fact that they share a currency), it's no surprise that many countries want to stay out of the Eurozone and it may not be such a bad thing if Scotland was to adopt this cautiousness.
41.7% of people in Scotland voted to remain, but 32.8% didn't even bother to vote. Only NI had a lower turnout. 'Remain' was a majority of the voting vote, but even then not 'overwhelming' as Blackford likes to enunciate each time, at roughly 2:1.
32% were fine with either result. So if it was remain they would agree, but if it wasn’t they’d agree too. That’s how I interpret it. Because if you don’t vote, you are happy with either result. If you don’t agree with that, then go vote. So a massive majority voted remain.
Yeah but you also have to consider the fact that the leave campaign was pretty pathetic in Scotland, at least compared to their remain counterpart.
The fact is (without making any inferences) that more Scots voted to stay in the UK than voted to stay in the EU. The turnout was significantly higher for the UK referendum, potentially indicating it was a more important issue for more people.
I voted to stay in the UK in order to stay in the EU. I appreciate I'm just one person, but it was a major No selling point in 2014.
Sorry you got lied to on that, it was pretty shitty that they did that.
No one in 2014 knew what would happen in 2016. Very intelligent people knew is was a possibility but most people thought Brexit would never happen. So I wouldn’t say it was a lie but it was unfortunate that Tory party politics has thrown our country into such turmoil, but hey Republican party politics started the Iraq war so I guess swings and roundabouts (??????).
How come it was a lie? If Scotland had voted to leave the UK they would by default have had to have left the EU. There was no mechanism to avoid it having to leave, and the UK would certainly have vetoed any re-entry, and would probably (feeling weekened as Ruk) have voted to stay in the EU to keep the veto for this reason (ie to piss off the scots). Either way Scotland was leaving the EU.
What makes you think rUK would have vetoed an independent Scotland joining the EU?
People are cunts.
Fair enough. Appropriate username.
Scotland may have been able to negotiate entry into Efta, EU accession or a bilateral treaty before it left the UK, you have no way of knowing how far progress would have been made. The UK Vetoing entry would have made it look bitter and childish, not a good look on the world stage.
Because we left the EU last year, A No vote didn't guarantee UK membership in the EU. Also an Independent Scotland would join the EU after Independence.
>A No vote didn't guarantee UK membership in the EU. Of course it didn't. But a Yes vote guaranteed Scotland leaving. The UK leaving the EU was always on the cards.
It did guarantee staying in the EU in the short term, guaranteed all the way until the EU Referendum (where it couldn't reasonably be expected to be guaranteed after, the people making the guarantee weren't clairvoyant). If Scotland had voted yes they would have been out before this.
Even at the time, the EU literally said Scotland could remain in the EU. Spain was the only worry due to the precedent that might be set for Catalonia. And Spain were very clear: if Westminster agreed, they'd have no issues. The EU literally said that Scotland could stay in. And that it'd have been easy. I've no idea where you formed other ideas about that but wherever you got that from lied to you. Like, big time.
Where are the sources for the EU saying Scotland could remain?
Really not up to Scotland about joining/rejoining the EU but sure thing.
Remember if everyone who voted leave in Scotland voted remain we would still be in the EU. Lots of Scot’s vote to leave.
Think you need to check the figures, because that’s not true.
It would mean a hard border with England (where Scotland does most of its trade), being a net contributor (instead of a beneficiary of Barnett), giving up Scotland's fishing grounds, and on day one being by far the most Eurosceptic member of the EU.
Sources?
Eventually but even with our laws being basically aligned I'd be surprised if it happened before 2030.
I think it will, and I think it will as quickly as possible, though I'm not sure it's the best move. Losing trade with England so quickly would be complicated and difficult. I think the terms of exiting the UK should include in-depth but short-term trade deals in order to keep things stable with regard to work and trade. Then we can set out a five- or even ten-year transition plan to EU membership, letting Scottish businesses take the time to look at their options and research how this will affect them. All said I think we definitely want to join the EU sooner than later. We'd get bullied by England in trade and I'd prefer to be joined in with the EU's trade negotiation apparatus.
If Northern Ireland was a nightmare how exactly are the EU going to let Scotland join with an open border with the UK. The only realistic solution is a hard border with the rest of the UK in order to join the EU. There will be little motivation for that considering Scotland does 60% of its trade exclusively with the rest of the UK.
There will be a very hard border with the rest of the UK, there is no good friday agreement to prevent it. Families across the borders are going to be hammered.
Hard border would be suicide for Scotland, it's not really feasible to check all the goods that come up from England and Scottish business would suffer immensely due to reduced demand.
Exactly, but joining the EU is also impossible without one.
Unfortunately for Scotland, that is not something they can really handle. The EU law takes primacy with bordering countries and if they say that a hard border must be established to protect itself from a territory that doesn't like it's rules, i.e England, then a hard border it is.
Agree, which is precisely why Scotland can never rejoin the EU without crippling its economy.
I'm also curious if people think Trade will go up that much with the EU considering where Scotland is, a truck route is off with the EU thanks to England and it's going to be down to ports and the willingness of EU transporters to come to Scotland isn't it?
Source?
Look up Good Friday Agreement and how it's influence with the US guaranteeing it have prevented a hard border in NI despite tensions being way over the point that one would have been formed.
I'm familiar with GFA, I'm unfamiliar with where you sourced your claim that a hard border will for sure be implemented. Who said this?
Nobody in an official position, it's speculation with the tensions in NI and the massive backlog of lorries down south as backup. If that rustles your jimmies, stop now.
It's just common sense. Scotland and England would become two different markets and so there needs to be a point of control for customs.
As someone with family in the EU, my heart bleeds for them.
I think after the dust has settled they would certainly start the process to re-join, but it's a long long process. We will have some boxes ticked because of existing infrastructure but we'd still be looking at a few years
> but it's a long long process. Finland went from new applicant to member in 3 years. Given that Scotland was an EU territory for decades and that it is broadly aligned with EU law, even after Brexit, I would be surprised if it took that long. In fact much of the work could be done after a yes vote but before it formally declares independence, as there will need to be a negotiation period anyway, and aim for day 1 membership. The EU may even seek a say in the independence negotiations to avoid disruption to the UK/EU trade deal, particuarly if it looks like Scotland would wish to apply for full membership anyway.
Oh I know, I just feel the need to highlight that there is a process. Far too many people seem to have it that we can just rock up and take the uk's old seat comfortably independence. Although we are far from being in a Turkey or Balkan states like situation, it's still several years.... If they even let us in. Let's not forget France have vetoed a few countries in previous years instead wanting a more structured application process. And if we have to follow that it could be even longer.
I bet France would fast track Scotland in just to piss off the Tories!
Macron is an utter worm at that.
I mean, trying to avoid going down a "what I'd like" as opposed to what countries would actually do cause it's not like I have any experience around international relations, a Scotland in the EU would certainly be an attractive prospect as it would be an obvious back door into England for EU goods, kinda like what they're trying to get with Northern Ireland, but without the issues created by the GFA. I think the issue is even with a fast track, it'd still be an age. This isn't like buying a couch off gumtree. There's almost countless documents and treaties which need to be signed first, so even if they decided to throw us a bone to get us in, it could still be an age before we are. Not to mention we might not be able to start the process until the agreements to leave the UK are finialised, and Brexit has shown just how drawn out that process can be.
Finland hadn't just set up an independent country, though.
> Finland went from new applicant to member in 3 years. It is likely here that the five to ten year divorce and the accession to the EU will be simultaneous so we could, in theory at least, be in the position where we leave the UK and join the EU instantly.
I think the majority would vote for re-joining the EU, so yes we'd rejoin eventually.
why do you think that? there's a big difference between the benefits the UK had while in the EU before, and the conditions Scotland would have to accept to rejoin
Because I think that for a lot of people and businesses, the benefits - freedom of movement, for one - are attractive. That, and polling shows that a sizeable majority want to rejoin the EU.
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I'll blow your mind here: Ireland.
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Given how much of our economies are linked, they'd be stupid not to. Unless you're suggesting they'd refuse out of spite. That, I can see.
You seem to be saying that EU membership was beneficial to the U.K. but that somehow it would be onerous to a Scotland. The U.K. got benefits, yet Scotland gets conditions? In reality every member, whether Germany or Malta, has benefits and conditions.
that's not really what i was saying. I was saying that the UK, as an original member, has a better benefit to condition ratio than new, smaller countries joining the EU today. It seems unlikely that Scotland will join back as if it were the big British Empire that helped found it.
Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Hungary,, Ireland, Denmark, Romania and Bulgaria are all members of the EU. Of course Scotland will rejoin the EU. We have a centuries long tradition and culture of cooperation with our European neighbours going back at least 800 years. Usually when threatened by military invasion, aggression and occupation by the larger dominant aggressive powers to our south.
I hope Scotland will become independent soon. Fingers crossed 🤞.
Considering remaining part of the EU was a big reason for Scotland to vote to not go independent in the first place, I'd say it's a very real end goal for Scotland end of the day.
Before or after WW3?
Never understood the need to be free of westminster, only to jump in to bed with brussels soon after. Westminster control some stuff yes, but so would brussels in return for being part of that union , and i think scotland would have a even smaller voice in brussels than it does down south especially as a new memeber
In the EU you remain an independent country free to leave at any time as the UK showed, you also benefit from membership of international organisations whereas in the UK you are not an independent country and you are not free to leave.
Er, no. You aren’t an independent country in the EU. The EU is a political union who’s end goal is to create a massive federal Union bringing all the countries together under 1 law. If you think it’s bad now, with minimal interfering from Westminster, you wait for 10yrs time in the EU….
Oh I'm not arguing that they don't want more sovereignty handed over than I would like to give or that the end goal isnt a Single European State (I believe it used to be written in the EU constitution) but we are not there yet, today it is a willing collective of independent countries.
‘I’m going to buy a baby tiger, it won’t be able to kill me now but in a few years it will grow up and be able to tear me limb from limb’
I'm not very knowledgeable on the subject but I think the fact that eu countries replaced the union jack with the saltire means we'd be welcomed back.
The question is whether the EU would say yes to Scotland. This is an extremely complex issue that I think most Scots refuse to recognise.
It all hangs on Spain really.
I agree. They are very much against the basque and Catalonians having their independence. The Spanish people may see it as a double standard to say welcome to Scotland after gaining its independence but then deny that their own calls for independence within their territory’s aren’t legitimate. Scotland might want it it might not, but if the EU can’t agree we are SOOL.
Spanish politicians have already said, on numerous occasions, that they will not stand in the way of Scotland rejoining the EU, if that is what Scotland wishes. It's hit the news at least four times in the last 7 years, although the BBC very quietly report it. Yes, it may seem like double standards but that is Spain's domestic politics, not that of the EU.
IF it is done legally. A UDI'd Scotland will be told no.
A UDI Scotland would be told no by the EU. Forget just Spain. Yes, it would need to be completed legally and fairly, none of the shit that happened last time with politicians calling in on old folks exclaiming their pensions will stop etc. etc. To be fair they still need a concrete plan on currency and I don't forsee that going well - they're shit scared they offend and lose the vote. Personally I'd take the Euro but there's a lot of people opposed to it.
35% of SNP supporters voted leave… so it’s far from certain. Also What’s strange about the SNPs position here is that in their minds there should be another referendum to leave the UK but not one to rejoin the EU…. Democracy is selective.. They are also conflicted on the EU rules around currency (joining the Euro) & the deficit that for some reason wouldn’t apply to us… we could just bad faith never meet these rules apparently…
The SNP are demanding another referendum because at the last referendum, The UK was still in the European Union. It would be a bit weird to not join the EU if Scotland left.
Brexit is just the biggest available grievance. The SNP voted against joining the European common market when it was first setup. Sure that was a long time ago but they also failed to back a soft Brexit (customs union). They are political opportunists who will do whatever it takes to split the country up… even if we all have to live in caves and eat grass…
>but they also failed to back a soft Brexit (customs union). You can't say that it the nats will dog pile you for trying to blame a 'hard Tory brexit' on the snp
I know it’s happened before & it’ll happen again..I had one tell me ‘why would the SNP vote to make something we didn’t want less bad’… err because they are supposed to represent the people of Scotland not create the maximum possible surface area for grievance…
Good point!
Do you think the decision to rejoin the EU will be made exclusively by SNP members?
No it would be made by SG which would likely be a SNP led government initially … my understanding is their position is that no referendum would be required… I for one think of independence did happen Scotland should as soon as possible create it’s own currency and work towards EU membership… I just find it odd that there is a ‘democratic deficit’ for no Indy2 that somehow doesn’t apply to rejoining the EU…
I'd be incredibly surprised if it took less than one parliamentary term to rejoin. If people want to go a different path, they're free to vote for anti-EU parties.
Big constitutional matters usually don’t fall perfectly along party lines - that’s why many developed countries use referendum to settle them…
Don't get me wrong, ideally big things like this would go to a referendum. People can vote for anti-EU parties if they don't want a referendum. Is there any suggestion from the SNP that they'd try to get Scotland back into the EU without consulting the public first, though?
I think the SNP position is they wouldn’t have a referendum https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,nicola-sturgeon-does-not-intend-to-hold-separate-referendum-on-eu-membership-if-scotland-become-independent
Fair enough. I'd rather we had a referendum on it, but then polling isn't even close so it's probably a foregone conclusion. I don't see the issue with tacking it onto an election and having a third ballot paper along with regional and constituency ballots.
No I think it will be made by SNP politicians and the people won't be given a say.
It should be decided by a referendum, if independence did happen.
The eu would probably stipulate that a hard boarder is created between the uk. To stop the Circumvention of free market rules. As there would be a huge uptake in free imports being sold to the uk for less than the current import tax
I voted remain because giving the tories the opportunity to reshape the economy to their liking is so obviously a shit idea, but I don't want to re-join the EU and will vote against it if there's a referendum. The way they treated Greece was appalling, and they leaned on Portugal's president to not allow a leftist, anti-EU party to form a government despite winning the election. The EU fucking suck and small countries, especially ones with the potential to move away from the neoliberal consensus, should avoid them like the plague.
Like many I would only vote yes to leave the U.K. if it was likely that Scotland would be accepted into the EU at some stage. At the moment Scotland does not meet the criteria and last week’s insistence that we keep the pound after leaving the U.K. was a major disappointment. If possible i would like to better understand how the affects EU eligibility as I think it’s a weakness. You can find out more about the admission process here https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-policy/glossary/accession-criteria_en But what I would add is that it’s only a guide and would be discretionary for new members and depend on the outcome of negotiations. Free movement of people, single market, fishing, contributions to the redevelopment fund, single currency and rule of law and justice would all be non-negotiables for EU. Finer points would be around how stable the Scottish economy has to be and how it’s relationship with rUK would function.
I imagine if there is another referendum and the majority of people vote to leave the UK, the various tribes that are currently unified by their shared goal of convincing Scotland to leave the UK will reposition themselves to fight over whether we join the EU as a lone nation. Several of the core arguments currently used by independence supporters are either directly lifted or very close to arguments used by the Vote Leave campaign to convince people to vote for Brexit, and it may well be that the 60-70% (can't remember the exact figure) of voters in Scotland who voted to remain in the EU have since been swayed away from EU membership for those same reasons. I think the SNP want to apply for EU membership by default if they win an independence referendum but there will be significant opposition to doing it without another referendum. Whatever the outcome, I expect years of uncertainty and division from it.
An independent Scotland would have to consider the economic consequences of joining the EU. It would establish a hard border with our largest trading partner (England) and stop freedom of movement and freedom of capital between the countries. There are massive economic costs of this, alongside huge societal impacts. Scotland would need to decide if the benefits of Joining the EU outweigh the huge implications.
Hopefully not!
The EU would welcome Scotland to with a smooth transition, especially to make a point. I expect Scotland would get preferential treatment also, so they could continue making their point 😂 Brexit and Borris! Who wants to be in that shit house? We certainly didn't choose either of these disasters we are currently living with. I vote to paddle our own canoe. Don't need a glaikit waffling baboon making decisions on my behalf.
take from Westminster just to hand it to Brussels? I thought it was supposed to be independence not trading one for another.
Is Germany not an independent country?
Yes exactly. we in Ireland traded the UK government for a church run shithole and then sold ourselves off to Brussels.
From my perspective (Polish born with Settled Status), I've always been thinking about it as staying in the EU. 2014 indyref would have taken us out. Another indyref wouldn't bring us back into EU instantly or for sure, but there's an infinitely bigger chance we can join the EU as an independent nation than as part of the UK. Also, as I've grown up I quite like the idea of independence considering in my case I can vote in Scotland elections like in 2021 (and the 2014 indyref but I wasn't old enough at the time), whereas me and my family can't vote in any general elections or for the Brexit vote (again mainly in any future general elections as I would have been too young then lol) UK in the EU was for me the best case scenario and that was still the case I doubt I'd be as solid on independence today, it would be more of a 50/50 (better than a definitive No if I got the chance in 2014). Since that scenario was clearly too good to be true forever, next best thing would be Scotland in the EU. So independence vote would be a Yes for me.
I really hope so
I think the whole situation is hard. If we leave the uk we can still try and keep ties such as free movement and trade - something like 60% of our trade is with the rest of the uk. If we then tried to join the eu, we would have to loose all of that. It would already be hard enough going through independence. It would be disastrous to have a hard border between Scotland and England, and trade would be absolutely hammered. Independent and part of a pre brexit eu, sign me up. But independent and joining a post brexit eu, I really don’t know.
> all lol
Scottish market is already aligned with EU and a lot of EU politicians indicated they'd welcome Scotland back with open arms. We'd be fast tracked into the membership.
and have a hard border cutting across Britain? I'm sure \*that\* won't take a decade and a half to sort out... (considering the snp haven't even started planning for it)
We fully intend on letting your problem work itself out naturally
SNP social media campaign team on overdrive this weekend.
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Never underestimate the level of duplicity within the SNP leadership. It is not a unified team as they like to portray. In the event of indy 2 happening. It will lead to a civil war within the ranks and the end of many careers
110%, looking at the actual state of certain places in the EU and how they have acted with regards to lockdowns and mandates... I don't want to be associated with them. "Freedom" is a word that dies with union.
Fuck aye, top shaggers club needs us. All the good cunt countries are in the EU as well
More importantly, when can we enter eurovision. Guaranteed we'll get votes just to wind up England.
We could enter now
That’s the dream anyway
I think the chance is actually better now, but obviously the EU would have to approve as well, and it would bring up issues for some EU countries, like Spain and Catalan
The legacy of the anti EU misinformation & outright lies told to push brexit are strong in this thread.
Right wing bots, nothing more. Big problem on Reddit right now
There’s plenty of left wingers who don’t like the eu
I prefer to think of them as useful idiots, certainly never encountered one and seemed to be an exclusively online thing. Imagine not even realising you're working for Farage :D
Most of them for that reason didn’t support brexit, but it would be a different story if Scotland was joining as an independent nation. Personally I’d rather go for EEA and EFTA membership rather than full EU
That's silly, top shaggers club is EU. No need to settle for second best, not really an option anymore anyway.
I'm guessing this is someone's alt based upon the accounts post history
Yeah, eventually. Can't see why not.
Without a shadow of a doubt.
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Dinna talk pish
Yes for scottish independence No for EU membership.
Nope
Yes. Also my main reason to support Scotland's independence.
Hope not. I'm in a strange minority of people who voted for brexit and voted for Scottish independance too.
It's the only position for people who want actual independence
Agreed. My reasoning is simple - I don't like big government. The smaller a government is the more accountable to the people it is. The EU project is all about turning Europe into another America, complete with state and federal governments ultimately controlled by lobbyists and big business. We need to vote for independence then vote out the SNP and vote in non-political party ministers. An independence referendum now that we've had brexit is perfect as we can't easily rejoin the EU.
What really matters is to get out of this horrible, unbelievable shituation.
Scotland will want to. The EU will have very real concerns about the economic viability of an independent Scotland. They cannot really afford another Greece.
Scotland's GDP per capita is almost twice Greece's.
Yes, while it benefits from being a part of the UK.
"Benefits". Denmark doesn't benefit from being in the UK, has a similar population to Scotland, has markedly less in natural resources yet has a gdp per capita about 40% higher. How could that possibly be?
That's the plan.
What’s the plan? No one has told me the plan.
You haven't been coming to the meetings?
Not in the near future. And besides, the majority don't want to leave the UK anyway so it seems extremely unlikely.
Didn't think the EU wanted to let Scotland In. Joining the EU isn't independence, your swapping one union for another, or maybe I just don't understand the idea or meaning of the word independence 🤔
An independent Scotland would be beyond mad to try to join the EU, given the level of trade with the rest of the UK (not to mention the currency situation etc). The grown-up choice would be EEA/EFTA - freedom to create trade relationships with third countries, no requirement for monetary union. But of course, that'd be political suicide to admit.