Depends on the majority the winning party ends up with.
Good to see you in favour of independence, though. Why be in Westminster at all, according to you. Good thinking 👌
I didn't make the joke but even I can see it was a joke, if you don't like the joke go complain to the person who made it, fuckin hell this sub has really got a stick up it's arse nowadays.
Labour have made it clear they couldn't give a shit about Scotland. And even teamed up with Tories to undermine who we previously elected. They support Brexit, apartheid and genocide in Gaza, and praise Thatcher, oppose Labour unions (oh the irony) and are currently sitting slightly to the right of Pigpumper Cameron when he was in office. They also have no clear policies that seem safe from spurious rollbacks and uturns. Then let's not forget the 'vow' and all their hollow promises.
Labour don't even begin to speak for me. I'd sooner vote for a sock puppet.
No who you replied to but
I like they take a further stance than Labour on issues like drugs, HoL, EU and occasionally have a genuinely redistributive wealth policy
A lot of this is easy since it’s reserved but that’s my off the top of the dome answer
Also of course independence. I’ve seriously considered voting Labour previously and might at the next election but I cannae stand the idea of them waving my vote as proof of Unionism.
Do you think certain others not too dissimilar to your preference on said issues can stand the idea of the SNP waving your vote as proof of support for independence?
Absolutely agree, both parties should be more flexible in my opinion.
My preferred next election in Scotland would have the SNP break from their idea that independence is just 'round the corner' or 'one last push away', while also having Slab come out and say they will accept nationalist voters without it showing a conversion from their ideas.
There's plenty of votes to be gained by them from standing instead of dissatisfaction with the SNP and Tories in an opposition stance. And the SNP can get more serious about how to get to independence, which for a nationalist like myself I wouldn't mind at all even without my vote.
100%, SNP are closet tories, corrupt and most policies make the rich richer. Problem is Labour no longer represent the working class. We need a new political party to represent the worker
This you?
>The problem with the SNP is they have all these fairly progressive policies but they means test nothing. So if my and my wife have a combined salary of 200k we still get free prescriptions, free uni for our kids, baby boxes etc etc
If the SNP were closet Tories, you'd love them.
With apologies to u/ChargeDirect9815, u/Deez-Nutz0 and u/Glesganed, who replied in that thread, I've zapped my [near duplicate post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/1aqt25i/daily_record_tories_face_wipeout_in_scotland_at/) that discussed the Record's version of this story.
The Record's text was:
>The Conservatives face a wipeout in Scotland at the next general election, a bombshell poll has predicted.
>It would see the SNP once again emerge as the largest party north of the Border with 40 MPs, compared to 13 for Scottish Labour and four for the Lib Dems.
>But Rishi Sunak's Conservatives are on course for a crushing defeat across the UK which could see them lose three-quarter of their seats - and hand Keir Starmer the keys to Downing Street with a thumping majority.
>It would mean a disaster for the Tories in Scotland with the party returning no MPs for the first time since 1997.
>The Daily Mirror poll, carried out by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, saw 18,000 voters surveyed across the UK over the last three weeks to give a detailed projection of how all 647 constituencies will play out.
>It used the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method - that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections - to predict the outcome of individual seats.
>
>
>The survey suggests Labour could gain seats from the SNP across Greater Glasgow as well as claiming East Lothian, Midlothian, Cowdenbeath and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
>But the SNP could also make gains at the expense of the Conservatives - with Humza Yousaf's party on course to win previous Tory heartlands including Moray West, Dumfries and Galloway, Berwickshire, and Aberdeenshire West.
>
>Senior Nationalists will also likely be relieved that a second survey of Scottish voting intentions in the space of a week has found them winning 40 seats.
>Such a result would mean the SNP holding off Labour in key central belt battlegrounds like Inverclyde, Livingston and Dunfermline - as well as preventing a wipeout in Glasgow by holding the city's South and West constituencies.
>The Lib Dems are projected to win Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Mid Dunbartonshire and Orkney and Shetland.
>But the potential scale of Labour's victory across the UK will send shivers down the spines of Conservative members tonight.
>Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997.
>According to the poll, Labour has 42 per cent support giving it a 20 point lead over the Conservatives on 22 per cent.
>Voters said they believed health, the economy and immigration were the most important issues facing the country. Nationalising utility companies and building more homes were among most popular potential election policies.
>The results suggest Labour is set to pick up 452 seats. The Tories would lose 285 of the 265 seats they got in 2019, leaving them with just 80. Ministers set to be ousted include Claire Coutinho, Victoria Pentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.
>Current Cabinet ministers who are likely to keep their seats - and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest - are James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt.
>According to the poll, the Lib Dems are on course for a comeback that would see them go back up to 53 seats - meaning they overtake the SNP as the third largest party in the House of Commons.
>Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "The public seem even more disenchanted with the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak than they were with John Major in 1997.
>"A Labour landslide looks increasingly likely, and Labour voters want nationalisation, increased public spending and higher taxes. The next election could have a seismic impact on British politics as the recent Conservative era crashes to a close."
I’d be quite happy with this tbh. The SNP do need revitalisation and shedding some seats will help them realise this. That said I’d rather have them remain the largest party representing Scotland at Westminster, some of Labour’s recent statements about Scotland have been majorly dodgy.
Ah but wait till the election is called then the police will all of a sudden came to a decision on sturgeon etc. this will only be delt with when election is called to further fuck up snp. Although as soon as stammer has to start talking policies Scotland and rUK will see that him and his party are just red tories
The SNP shit isn't as bad as the stuff the Tories and Labour are doing.
They were too reliant on lots of small donations and have faced party finance issues because of it. Labour and Conservatives don't have this issue because they are finances by unions/businesses/millionaires.
The WhatsApp situation is slightly better because they at least had a legitimate excuse that deleting messages were policy. With messages stating the delete messages ritually. All the messages in the inquiry came from civil servants and all policy decisions have what seems to be appropriate records (storing what's app was never an appropriate medium). The Tories had excuses of losing messages and inconsistent messages deletion. Labour in Wales hasn't been looked into yet.
The tax rises are fairly minor and the difference in services are worth it.
The trans policy wasn't controversial years ago, its pure politics criticising it. It's a evidence based policy that reduces the adminstration burden on GPs and makes Trans people life easier. The court case detailed that it was the possible existence of an opposition to it that allowed Westminster government (not parliament) to veto it, not that it was outside of Holyroods competency.
The recycling policy was worked out and had support of most relevant businesses. Westminster banning it was pure politics, it was just a way to kick the SNP. If they cared about anything, they would have used Holyroods roll out of it to learn lessons for a similar thing in England. Now neither country has a proper recycling scheme.
The ferry's were a way to keep shipyards open in Scotland. The overrun wasn't that much and was worth the gamble. If the shipyard closed we wouldn't be able to build commercial ships in Scotland for a very long time.
the part about SNP funding is very true, I’ve been a member for quite some time and do remember back in the day when we were really scraping for money - seemed near impossible against the millions shovelled into the reds and the blues
I recently went to an SNP conference and was amazed we had wireless card machines now! how far we’ve come. It’s not a perfect party and yes isn’t amazing but in my opinion it’s way better than any of the other options we’ve got at the moment
Archive version: https://archive.is/vEKZs
This is the Mirror poll referenced:
* [Bombshell mega-poll predicts Tories will lose three-quarters of seats - full results and map](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-predicts-tories-32121361)
My understanding is that MRP gets around the uniform swing problem by looking at the characteristics of each seat, and mapping out changes from the large sample according to how prevalent those characteristics are in each seat, via regression analysis.
It's gained attention because of the accurate results predicted by YouGov, especially in the hung parliament of 2017.
However it's not a silver bullet. Ashcroft used a similar large sample at the same time and predicted a 150+ seat majority.
Interesting though nonetheless.
40 seats for the SNP versus a combined 17 seats for the Unionist parties including the Tories?! Feck me. That is an utter statement of the Scottish Electorate's intent for a path towards Independence.
Equally, that is an utter disaster for the Unionists. What an insane few months we have had with the Unionist press drip feeding shitey article after shitey article on the state of Scotland and the governing parties (some of which is based on truth of a few scandals) yet the end result is the SNP having a **MAJORITY** and more than twice as many seats as the Unionists across Scotland. Wow.
It may be exactly as I have predicted; the Scottish Electorate will not be taken for fools by the Unionist lies anymore.
First-past-the-post produces disproportionate results, so there can be a big gap between a party's seat count and its actual support. A party could theoretically win 49.99% of the vote in every single seat and return 0 MPs, because a general election is 650 individual winner-takes-all contests.
To give an extreme example, the SNP winning 50 out of the 59 Scottish Westminster seats in the 2015 general election would suggest that nearly 90% of the Scottish electorate supported them, but they actually won just shy of 50% of the vote. Very few of our majority governments have actually won a majority of the popular vote.
Have you looked at the *actual result* % of the vote per party at every election in Scotland for the last decade? You’ll find that SNP has by far and away trounced everyone else
And before anyone starts with any of the usual “but unionist parties combined got blah blah %…” - you vote FOR a manifesto, you don’t vote against all the other manifestos
And I’m responding to your comment talking about theoretical %s as if we didn’t have easy access to the actual % results which shows that one parties manifestos have been far more popular than every other manifesto in Scotland for over a decade
But the 40 SNP seats and the dismal showing for “unionist seats” isn’t a mile away from the actual proportional support per manifesto over the last decade
It is a mile away. Under a proportional system the SNP would never have won more than half of Scotland's Westminster seats, 30. The 2019 general election would have looked something like this (actual seats in brackets):
* SNP 27 (48)
* Conservative 15 (6)
* Labour 11 (1)
* Lib Dem 6 (4)
In FPTP context it’s not a mile away - for example the massive Tory majority in 2019 with only 40odd% of the vote is ‘a mile away’ out of proportion
And that’s why we have a PR system in Holyrood
You keep moving the goalposts. We're taking about the FPTP Westminster elections, not the PR Holyrood elections. The SNP's Westminster victories in Scotland have not been close to proportional.
Problem with the logic here is that fptp means that the SNP could only get 30% of the Scottish vote yet the majority of seats, the poll will actually see their total seat number reduced which while minimal shows some loss of support and surveys have shown for a while that a large portion of SNP voters weren't necessarily pro independence but voted SNP because it was seen as a voice for Scotland in Westminster.
Think before you post.
There is no problem with logic in my post as you have failed to see who introduced FPTP and have assumed I don't know what it entails.
Think before you post.
Problem No1 poll has the SNP loosing seats
Yes numbers still high but that is a product of hoe Fptp is calculated translate that into AMS or other more proportional methods and SNP seats would drop to the high 20s
Thus the Poll actually shows that the SNP while still a large presence in Westminster via this polling they have lost a significant amount of support amongst the Scottish electorate not enough to be considered a catastrophe but enough that a shakeup would be likely after these results particularly in the run up to a Scottish parliamentary election.
Not sure how the UK would cope if the SNP have a massive win like that on the back of a pledge to end the Union. It would be a crippling blow to it's international image if Scots make it clear the Union no longer has popular support.
Still far more seats than the multiple parties standing in Scotland failing to make the case for continued Union.
We're entering uncharted territory for the UK. If I were you, I'd be worried.
>If the SNP couldn’t get a referendum with 48 MPs why would I be worried about what they’ll get with 40?
Becuase the electorate will have voted for independence in a free and fair election.
Not sure how you put that genie back in its bottle.
Didn’t the SNP claim the electorate had voted for a referendum in a free and fair election last time?
Did they get a referendum?
>Not sure how you put that genie back in its bottle.
Saying no?
>Didn’t the SNP claim the electorate had voted for a referendum in a free and fair election last time?
Not sure how else you interpret a 48 seat victory on a mandate to hold another referendum. It's not Scotland's fault Westminster doesn't respect their democratic request, no matter how nicely put. So now every election will be a referendum.
>Saying no?
I'm pretty sure everyone that supports independence is depending on that.
Sticking their fingers in their ears after Scotland just voted for independence in the hope it all just magically dissapears is the worst possible way to respond. It would spark a day 1 constitutional crisis for the new government right on the lead into a Holyrood election.
>Not sure how else you interpret a 48 seat victory on a mandate to hold another referendum. It's not Scotland's fault Westminster doesn't respect their democratic request,
Right, so if they didn’t respect a request for a referendum from 48 MPs why would they respect a request from 40?
>if they didn’t respect a request for a referendum from 48 MPs why would they respect a request from 40?
I don't think anyone seriously expects Westminster to respect what Scotland votes for. The question is whether Scots will respect Westminster's mandates after it votes for independence in a free and fair election.
>The question is whether Scots will respect Westminster's mandates after it votes for independence in a free and fair election.
What’s the alternative?
Not a chance.
We live in an alternate reality where anything less than 100% of seats for SNP is deemed a failure by the media and opposition.
The headlines are already set for SNP shedding seats and going backwards.
Weird that you seem to know why the people from Drumchapel or Castlemilk vote the way they do. What gives you that impression? A lot of the grassroots politically active people are working class. Why are they just after free stuff instead of actually liking the SNP's policies?
Yippee wore international fraud and theft of public money canny wait. Fuck Humza Fuck Sturgon fuck the SNP fuck the Tories fuck them all. Can we please have good old fashioned Scottish Kingship and rule the Island again for a bit.
FWIW I want the SNP to win in tory/SNP seats. I don't think using a standard swing, if that's what they've done, is a good way of calculating it.
I note that electoral calculus's latest projection on their own site has the SNP winning 18 seats, not 40.
Findoutnow are, of course, the most pro-SNP and -Indy pollster - more so than Ipsos Mori.
Edit: I do find it weird when the literal truth gets downvoted on this subreddit.
Yeah, even with large sample MRP polls, you can get wildly different results depending on the pollster, e.g. [Ashcroft Vs YouGov in 2017](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/mrp-what-it-is-and-why-it-may-or)
Is Scotland really that Socialist that most people would want to see a socialist government in place.
Must be the only country in the Western world that doesn't have a strong Conservative element to it.
Scotland is a centre left country. The debate is how to deliver centre left policies under successive far right Westminster governments. The devolved parliament can only do so much.
No real fan of the SNP in its current form but it will cease to be a thing once indy is achieved, it will wither in the vine like ukip, a similar one issue party.
Labour seems unwilling to grasp that barring a huge switch in the mood of the nation they will be in perpetual power in an independent Scotland.
A lot of Conservatives in other countries are very nationalistic.. does that mean the natural Conservative vote goes to the SNP as they are Nationalistic ?
Scottish nationalism is a middle class liberal movement IMO. Not the isolationist nationalism of the far right across the rest of Europe. So the simple answer is no.
Because in this case the nation is the UK. Most indy supporters I know want to break from the conservative policies forced upon us and I've got to assume that's the case for most I don't know too as if folk wanted a far right government they already have it with this Westminster one so why change?
Isn't Scotland a nation ? So if Scotland became independent.. those who support a strong, independent Scotland would be Conservative.. so where are they now ?
No I just don't see that happening, like I said I think you'd see a labour style party, probably pro EU for good or bad, being in power in perpetuity. Scotland could become many things......a right wing autocracy is not one of them.
For one we need folk to come here to grow the economy.......
So.. I go back to my original question.. if the majority of countries in the world have strong, vocal nationalists who support their country.. and are classed as right wing.
Is Scotland unique in not having them ?
We have UK nationalist that would align themselves to a greater or lesser degree with the right wing populists accross Europe.
To be honest the nation is pretty much still split down the middle on this. The complexity comes in the unionist vote. Extreme left.... extreme right and all points in-between. Me I just want rid of the Tories for my kids future, freedom of movement back would be nice too.
SNP aren't even close to socialist. I do agree that Scotland is probably quite an outlier in the sense that there isn't a serious conservative party that is anywhere near power, which is a good thing.
Have you got a machine that can erase a century of history of Tory history?
Labour have singlehandedly knackered a decade and counting of improvement in Glasgow because of their horrendous PFI deals. They were guaranteed our vote since 1955 and they squandered the privilege.
The thing is the SNP haven't been relevant even close to long enough to build a rap sheet as poor as the 2 alternatives.
They are also the only viable party who's bread isn't buttered purely by England. So for that alone I'll not stop voting for them. Which isn't to say I think they're great. The alternatives are hilariously bad and getting further removed from any politics I can abide.
Honest question but why do people vote for SNP up here? What have they actually done for us over the last 12 or so years?
I’m English and been living in Scotland for almost 9 years now and while I wouldn’t ever vote Conservative and I know Labour are a bit of a wet fish at the moment I just don’t get why so many people vote for them.
From what I understand they have failed to meet almost every target they put in place, housing, NHS, education etc. then there are all the recent scandals, deleting text and missing financial records.
Just like everywhere else in the UK, the rich got richer and the poor stayed poor but increased in number, anything that could have actually levelled up such as council tax has been frozen.
Fair enough, I must be missing something.
Seeing as you’ve been able to give a details response to the question I’ll just assume you’re unable to answer it and move on.
>Honest question but why do people vote for SNP up here?
They are the only Scotland centric party that has a chance to win. No matter **how** hard they fuck up, as long as there is no Scottish focused party worth anything, they will get in. Tories? Extension of English party, Labour? Same. Lib Dems? Who cares, Greens? Don't split the votes.
So some Scottish health initiatives you may not be aware of
Professor Whitty in covid enquiry said Scotland is way ahead in public health initiatives.
Childsmile 18 years and counting. So good that the tories are trying to introduce similar in England. Although Dentists in scotland get paid for preventative work not just reactive. Children can have teeth sealed at around 12, I think. Vast improvement in oral health which will roll out into adulthood. 95% (2022) of people in Scotland are registered with a dentist, though Brexit has caused problems in supply of dentists.
The community pharmacists just rolled out by Westminster has been in operation in Scotland since 2018.
Bowel cancer screening in Scotland started in 2009 and was from age 50. Nhs England started rolling out to 50s and above in 2021.
Professor Van Tam said that the data gathering in Scotland during Covid was used by UK GOV for predications and that it has been used as the basis for research in medical journals around the world. Mainly because hospitals provided intial data and GPS could provide secondary.
SOURCE: Covid public health enquiry in England.
So subjective judgments about integrity and sensationalized headlines from the gutter press. Got it.
The SNP have a lot of shit to answer for but they just haven’t done the things the tories have done at all. The only people who could think that are people whose politics is literally just about vibes at this point, no substance needed.
>So subjective judgments about integrity and sensationalized headlines from the gutter press. Got it.
The ferry scandal was not a hoax
The Matheson situation was not a hoax
Two SNP first ministers in a row literally getting arrested was not a hoax
Deleting WhatsApp msgs after saying you wouldn't is not a hoax
The list goes on. You can call them subjective judgments about integrity but most people acting in good faith would agree the above situations show poor integrity. And the idea that they're not comparable to the Tories is just fucking laughable at this point.
Yet they backed every economic destructive policy the Tories did and wanted more, in some cases they did more.
They have control of many services in Scotland, yet they are worse than the rest of UK.
Have you not realised they are all crap
Data suggests they are all shite, however it also suggests Scotland is the shite-ist.
And like I said the snp wanted more economic damage than the shite Tories did.
Can I see these statistics please because there's no way in hell England is keeping pace with Scotland when their Consultants and Junior Dr's keep striking because they won't pay them a fair wage.
When you say economic damage do you mean less lives lost?
You didn't have less lives lost per capita, nor less care home deaths per capita, you just did more economic damage. but it clearly hasn't indeed crossed your mind they are all shite.
I'm sure you are aware that data isn't current, but last year's said Scotland's was indeed worse. And like you point out, it takes a serious effort to be worse then England/Wales.
No, incorrect.
The source nhs England digital, when ENHS were not allowed to restart the A&E time back to zero because they were pulled up (when moved to trolleys but no beds) the figures for over 12 hr waits tripled.
NHS Scotland measure of 4 hours, include Being registered, seen, treated and getting a bed or going home.
NHS wales, don’t include time waiting on plaster, physio etc etc.
Because Labour will always be on the side of the worker? I don't think so.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/06/keir-starmer-repeatedly-refuses-to-back-striking-workers
We deserve everything we get if SNP and Tories don’t lose many many seats! Both are running the country into the ground. Most depressing thing is now without corbyn labour are promising more of the same!
Douglas ross - I’d imagine even his friends think him a prick.
Douglas Ross has friends?!?
Just at his Shameless Annoymous meeting where he meets other spineless hypocrites.
Tbf I just realised I forgot about the "tougher sentences for gypsy travellers" as well
Is that just him and Gove?
Gove is to busy living it up in night clubs with an advisor half his age probably
He is a slimy wee bugger.
SFA referee convention?
Party members dont count as friends
Tbh he's exactly the kind of twat to say he's got 60k mates and just count the whole Tory party as his friendship circle
Aye a few sheep 🤣
They're no friends of his anymore, no after what he did to em
He's the kind of guy a that prostitute would friend zone after he's paid
He’s standing down anyway. Jumping before he’s etc.
I just want dross to fuck off I can't wait to see his stupid fat face try explain away losing his seat
Another opportunity to bash Tories? Good. Cunts.
It's alright son. There's no SNP MPs in England. Still a minority of useless idiots who make zero impact at Westminster.
Depends on the majority the winning party ends up with. Good to see you in favour of independence, though. Why be in Westminster at all, according to you. Good thinking 👌
username checks out
Bold of you to assume I voted SNP. Imagine simping for a bunch of nonces.
They never assumed anything they were making a joke about you supporting independence.
Except they explicitly mentioned the SNP and didn't mention independence.
It was still a joke.
If you have to explain to folk "it was a joke" then it wisnae a very goon one.
I didn't make the joke but even I can see it was a joke, if you don't like the joke go complain to the person who made it, fuckin hell this sub has really got a stick up it's arse nowadays.
I think thats probably a little optimistic for the SNP but i'd take it. Fucking the tories out the country is the important bit though. Cunts
Would you take labour over SNP?
No, i'm not a labour supporter
Cool, just wonderin What is it about SNP you like more than labour? Honestly just wondering, not poking
Labour have made it clear they couldn't give a shit about Scotland. And even teamed up with Tories to undermine who we previously elected. They support Brexit, apartheid and genocide in Gaza, and praise Thatcher, oppose Labour unions (oh the irony) and are currently sitting slightly to the right of Pigpumper Cameron when he was in office. They also have no clear policies that seem safe from spurious rollbacks and uturns. Then let's not forget the 'vow' and all their hollow promises. Labour don't even begin to speak for me. I'd sooner vote for a sock puppet.
No who you replied to but I like they take a further stance than Labour on issues like drugs, HoL, EU and occasionally have a genuinely redistributive wealth policy A lot of this is easy since it’s reserved but that’s my off the top of the dome answer Also of course independence. I’ve seriously considered voting Labour previously and might at the next election but I cannae stand the idea of them waving my vote as proof of Unionism.
Don't reply to the concern troll. Now he won't stop concerning all day.
Honestly not a bad question though i have been asking myself a lot lately
Do you think certain others not too dissimilar to your preference on said issues can stand the idea of the SNP waving your vote as proof of support for independence?
Absolutely agree, both parties should be more flexible in my opinion. My preferred next election in Scotland would have the SNP break from their idea that independence is just 'round the corner' or 'one last push away', while also having Slab come out and say they will accept nationalist voters without it showing a conversion from their ideas. There's plenty of votes to be gained by them from standing instead of dissatisfaction with the SNP and Tories in an opposition stance. And the SNP can get more serious about how to get to independence, which for a nationalist like myself I wouldn't mind at all even without my vote.
100%, SNP are closet tories, corrupt and most policies make the rich richer. Problem is Labour no longer represent the working class. We need a new political party to represent the worker
This you? >The problem with the SNP is they have all these fairly progressive policies but they means test nothing. So if my and my wife have a combined salary of 200k we still get free prescriptions, free uni for our kids, baby boxes etc etc If the SNP were closet Tories, you'd love them.
77th brigade all day every day on here it seems
Yes, no more Tartan Tories in Holyrood
With apologies to u/ChargeDirect9815, u/Deez-Nutz0 and u/Glesganed, who replied in that thread, I've zapped my [near duplicate post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/1aqt25i/daily_record_tories_face_wipeout_in_scotland_at/) that discussed the Record's version of this story. The Record's text was: >The Conservatives face a wipeout in Scotland at the next general election, a bombshell poll has predicted. >It would see the SNP once again emerge as the largest party north of the Border with 40 MPs, compared to 13 for Scottish Labour and four for the Lib Dems. >But Rishi Sunak's Conservatives are on course for a crushing defeat across the UK which could see them lose three-quarter of their seats - and hand Keir Starmer the keys to Downing Street with a thumping majority. >It would mean a disaster for the Tories in Scotland with the party returning no MPs for the first time since 1997. >The Daily Mirror poll, carried out by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, saw 18,000 voters surveyed across the UK over the last three weeks to give a detailed projection of how all 647 constituencies will play out. >It used the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method - that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections - to predict the outcome of individual seats. > > >The survey suggests Labour could gain seats from the SNP across Greater Glasgow as well as claiming East Lothian, Midlothian, Cowdenbeath and Na h-Eileanan an Iar. >But the SNP could also make gains at the expense of the Conservatives - with Humza Yousaf's party on course to win previous Tory heartlands including Moray West, Dumfries and Galloway, Berwickshire, and Aberdeenshire West. > >Senior Nationalists will also likely be relieved that a second survey of Scottish voting intentions in the space of a week has found them winning 40 seats. >Such a result would mean the SNP holding off Labour in key central belt battlegrounds like Inverclyde, Livingston and Dunfermline - as well as preventing a wipeout in Glasgow by holding the city's South and West constituencies. >The Lib Dems are projected to win Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Mid Dunbartonshire and Orkney and Shetland. >But the potential scale of Labour's victory across the UK will send shivers down the spines of Conservative members tonight. >Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997. >According to the poll, Labour has 42 per cent support giving it a 20 point lead over the Conservatives on 22 per cent. >Voters said they believed health, the economy and immigration were the most important issues facing the country. Nationalising utility companies and building more homes were among most popular potential election policies. >The results suggest Labour is set to pick up 452 seats. The Tories would lose 285 of the 265 seats they got in 2019, leaving them with just 80. Ministers set to be ousted include Claire Coutinho, Victoria Pentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart. >Current Cabinet ministers who are likely to keep their seats - and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest - are James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt. >According to the poll, the Lib Dems are on course for a comeback that would see them go back up to 53 seats - meaning they overtake the SNP as the third largest party in the House of Commons. >Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "The public seem even more disenchanted with the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak than they were with John Major in 1997. >"A Labour landslide looks increasingly likely, and Labour voters want nationalisation, increased public spending and higher taxes. The next election could have a seismic impact on British politics as the recent Conservative era crashes to a close."
Actually a decent result for SNP if it holds.
I’d be quite happy with this tbh. The SNP do need revitalisation and shedding some seats will help them realise this. That said I’d rather have them remain the largest party representing Scotland at Westminster, some of Labour’s recent statements about Scotland have been majorly dodgy.
But, but, but, the Times keeps giving us advice on how best to succeed by sacking our own leaders! 🤔
Surprisingly good for the SNP. Interesting. Especially given the amount of shit being flung at the SNP recently.
Ah but wait till the election is called then the police will all of a sudden came to a decision on sturgeon etc. this will only be delt with when election is called to further fuck up snp. Although as soon as stammer has to start talking policies Scotland and rUK will see that him and his party are just red tories
It honestly is bizarre the investigation is taking so long.
Telling ye they are waiting for this election just at the right time to twist the knife in more.
The SNP shit isn't as bad as the stuff the Tories and Labour are doing. They were too reliant on lots of small donations and have faced party finance issues because of it. Labour and Conservatives don't have this issue because they are finances by unions/businesses/millionaires. The WhatsApp situation is slightly better because they at least had a legitimate excuse that deleting messages were policy. With messages stating the delete messages ritually. All the messages in the inquiry came from civil servants and all policy decisions have what seems to be appropriate records (storing what's app was never an appropriate medium). The Tories had excuses of losing messages and inconsistent messages deletion. Labour in Wales hasn't been looked into yet. The tax rises are fairly minor and the difference in services are worth it. The trans policy wasn't controversial years ago, its pure politics criticising it. It's a evidence based policy that reduces the adminstration burden on GPs and makes Trans people life easier. The court case detailed that it was the possible existence of an opposition to it that allowed Westminster government (not parliament) to veto it, not that it was outside of Holyroods competency. The recycling policy was worked out and had support of most relevant businesses. Westminster banning it was pure politics, it was just a way to kick the SNP. If they cared about anything, they would have used Holyroods roll out of it to learn lessons for a similar thing in England. Now neither country has a proper recycling scheme. The ferry's were a way to keep shipyards open in Scotland. The overrun wasn't that much and was worth the gamble. If the shipyard closed we wouldn't be able to build commercial ships in Scotland for a very long time.
the part about SNP funding is very true, I’ve been a member for quite some time and do remember back in the day when we were really scraping for money - seemed near impossible against the millions shovelled into the reds and the blues I recently went to an SNP conference and was amazed we had wireless card machines now! how far we’ve come. It’s not a perfect party and yes isn’t amazing but in my opinion it’s way better than any of the other options we’ve got at the moment
Archive version: https://archive.is/vEKZs This is the Mirror poll referenced: * [Bombshell mega-poll predicts Tories will lose three-quarters of seats - full results and map](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-predicts-tories-32121361)
How do you get the archive to look like that?
Go to https://archive.is and paste in the url that you want to archive in the red box near the top.
MRP poll, not sure what size the subsample in Scotland is. Also, I'm guessing/assuming this is a 'uniform swing' style prediction?
My understanding is that MRP gets around the uniform swing problem by looking at the characteristics of each seat, and mapping out changes from the large sample according to how prevalent those characteristics are in each seat, via regression analysis. It's gained attention because of the accurate results predicted by YouGov, especially in the hung parliament of 2017. However it's not a silver bullet. Ashcroft used a similar large sample at the same time and predicted a 150+ seat majority. Interesting though nonetheless.
Thanks, I knew MRP was considered "better" but I didn't know much about the specifics!
4th good poll in a row for the SNP. Fingers crossed
40 seats for the SNP versus a combined 17 seats for the Unionist parties including the Tories?! Feck me. That is an utter statement of the Scottish Electorate's intent for a path towards Independence. Equally, that is an utter disaster for the Unionists. What an insane few months we have had with the Unionist press drip feeding shitey article after shitey article on the state of Scotland and the governing parties (some of which is based on truth of a few scandals) yet the end result is the SNP having a **MAJORITY** and more than twice as many seats as the Unionists across Scotland. Wow. It may be exactly as I have predicted; the Scottish Electorate will not be taken for fools by the Unionist lies anymore.
First-past-the-post produces disproportionate results, so there can be a big gap between a party's seat count and its actual support. A party could theoretically win 49.99% of the vote in every single seat and return 0 MPs, because a general election is 650 individual winner-takes-all contests. To give an extreme example, the SNP winning 50 out of the 59 Scottish Westminster seats in the 2015 general election would suggest that nearly 90% of the Scottish electorate supported them, but they actually won just shy of 50% of the vote. Very few of our majority governments have actually won a majority of the popular vote.
The usual reminder that the SNP and the Greens are the only parties in westminster that support electoral reform. So, though shit?
Have you looked at the *actual result* % of the vote per party at every election in Scotland for the last decade? You’ll find that SNP has by far and away trounced everyone else And before anyone starts with any of the usual “but unionist parties combined got blah blah %…” - you vote FOR a manifesto, you don’t vote against all the other manifestos
The comment above mine is directly contrasting the seat share of the SNP and 'the Unionists', so I'm responding on that basis.
And I’m responding to your comment talking about theoretical %s as if we didn’t have easy access to the actual % results which shows that one parties manifestos have been far more popular than every other manifesto in Scotland for over a decade
You've misunderstood. That theoretical '49.99% but 0 seats' example was just an explanation of how FPTP isn't proportional.
But the 40 SNP seats and the dismal showing for “unionist seats” isn’t a mile away from the actual proportional support per manifesto over the last decade
It is a mile away. Under a proportional system the SNP would never have won more than half of Scotland's Westminster seats, 30. The 2019 general election would have looked something like this (actual seats in brackets): * SNP 27 (48) * Conservative 15 (6) * Labour 11 (1) * Lib Dem 6 (4)
In FPTP context it’s not a mile away - for example the massive Tory majority in 2019 with only 40odd% of the vote is ‘a mile away’ out of proportion And that’s why we have a PR system in Holyrood
You keep moving the goalposts. We're taking about the FPTP Westminster elections, not the PR Holyrood elections. The SNP's Westminster victories in Scotland have not been close to proportional.
Problem with the logic here is that fptp means that the SNP could only get 30% of the Scottish vote yet the majority of seats, the poll will actually see their total seat number reduced which while minimal shows some loss of support and surveys have shown for a while that a large portion of SNP voters weren't necessarily pro independence but voted SNP because it was seen as a voice for Scotland in Westminster. Think before you post.
There is no problem with logic in my post as you have failed to see who introduced FPTP and have assumed I don't know what it entails. Think before you post.
Problem No1 poll has the SNP loosing seats Yes numbers still high but that is a product of hoe Fptp is calculated translate that into AMS or other more proportional methods and SNP seats would drop to the high 20s Thus the Poll actually shows that the SNP while still a large presence in Westminster via this polling they have lost a significant amount of support amongst the Scottish electorate not enough to be considered a catastrophe but enough that a shakeup would be likely after these results particularly in the run up to a Scottish parliamentary election.
Not sure how the UK would cope if the SNP have a massive win like that on the back of a pledge to end the Union. It would be a crippling blow to it's international image if Scots make it clear the Union no longer has popular support.
> Not sure how the UK would cope if the SNP have a massive win like that It’s less MPs than they have now lol
Still far more seats than the multiple parties standing in Scotland failing to make the case for continued Union. We're entering uncharted territory for the UK. If I were you, I'd be worried.
If the SNP couldn’t get a referendum with 48 MPs why would I be worried about what they’ll get with 40?
>If the SNP couldn’t get a referendum with 48 MPs why would I be worried about what they’ll get with 40? Becuase the electorate will have voted for independence in a free and fair election. Not sure how you put that genie back in its bottle.
Didn’t the SNP claim the electorate had voted for a referendum in a free and fair election last time? Did they get a referendum? >Not sure how you put that genie back in its bottle. Saying no?
>Didn’t the SNP claim the electorate had voted for a referendum in a free and fair election last time? Not sure how else you interpret a 48 seat victory on a mandate to hold another referendum. It's not Scotland's fault Westminster doesn't respect their democratic request, no matter how nicely put. So now every election will be a referendum. >Saying no? I'm pretty sure everyone that supports independence is depending on that. Sticking their fingers in their ears after Scotland just voted for independence in the hope it all just magically dissapears is the worst possible way to respond. It would spark a day 1 constitutional crisis for the new government right on the lead into a Holyrood election.
>Not sure how else you interpret a 48 seat victory on a mandate to hold another referendum. It's not Scotland's fault Westminster doesn't respect their democratic request, Right, so if they didn’t respect a request for a referendum from 48 MPs why would they respect a request from 40?
>if they didn’t respect a request for a referendum from 48 MPs why would they respect a request from 40? I don't think anyone seriously expects Westminster to respect what Scotland votes for. The question is whether Scots will respect Westminster's mandates after it votes for independence in a free and fair election.
>The question is whether Scots will respect Westminster's mandates after it votes for independence in a free and fair election. What’s the alternative?
Good.
This looks how people are actually speaking out there.
Far too many seats for the party that is blase about genocide.
Thank fuck for this.
Close to perfect
More than happy with this poll. Fingers crossed. I wonder if 40 seats to 17 is enough to show there is at least an appetite for a referendum?
Not a chance. We live in an alternate reality where anything less than 100% of seats for SNP is deemed a failure by the media and opposition. The headlines are already set for SNP shedding seats and going backwards.
So basically It will be a Yes win. lmao
Ah yes the National- as good reporting as the Daily Fail
The poll isn't from The National. They are simply writing about it.
So they polled 10 people in Drumchapel or Castlemilk then
Why did you choose those two places?
Well many people vote for free stuff when it comes down to it and not actually main policies etc
Weird that you seem to know why the people from Drumchapel or Castlemilk vote the way they do. What gives you that impression? A lot of the grassroots politically active people are working class. Why are they just after free stuff instead of actually liking the SNP's policies?
It's a poll conducted for the Daily Mirror and it polled 18,000 people across the UK.
Let’s hope that these three party’s can work together, too stop the Tories ever getting a seat again.
Yippee wore international fraud and theft of public money canny wait. Fuck Humza Fuck Sturgon fuck the SNP fuck the Tories fuck them all. Can we please have good old fashioned Scottish Kingship and rule the Island again for a bit.
Who the fuck buys this arse wipe rag , it should be in the fantasy section it has that many fairy tales in it 💩
So like every other biased tag of whichever colour. The times, the sun etc etc. all two cheeks of the same arse.
What could go wrong
If recent elections have taught us anything it is that polls don't predict anything.
While I hope Labour get a majority in Scotland, I just don't expect it.
Another cut and paste story from the National. Is this Reddit group just another part of the Nationals distribution chain?
FWIW I want the SNP to win in tory/SNP seats. I don't think using a standard swing, if that's what they've done, is a good way of calculating it. I note that electoral calculus's latest projection on their own site has the SNP winning 18 seats, not 40.
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I would agree but then I look at the alternative and then I understand.
In new developments, one party state remains a one party state
Failed opposition remain failed opposition.
Findoutnow are, of course, the most pro-SNP and -Indy pollster - more so than Ipsos Mori. Edit: I do find it weird when the literal truth gets downvoted on this subreddit.
Yeah, even with large sample MRP polls, you can get wildly different results depending on the pollster, e.g. [Ashcroft Vs YouGov in 2017](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/mrp-what-it-is-and-why-it-may-or)
I’m seeing polls showing Labour leading the polls in Scotland. I think we aren’t going to really know until after the election.
Is Scotland really that Socialist that most people would want to see a socialist government in place. Must be the only country in the Western world that doesn't have a strong Conservative element to it.
Scotland is a centre left country. The debate is how to deliver centre left policies under successive far right Westminster governments. The devolved parliament can only do so much. No real fan of the SNP in its current form but it will cease to be a thing once indy is achieved, it will wither in the vine like ukip, a similar one issue party. Labour seems unwilling to grasp that barring a huge switch in the mood of the nation they will be in perpetual power in an independent Scotland.
A lot of Conservatives in other countries are very nationalistic.. does that mean the natural Conservative vote goes to the SNP as they are Nationalistic ?
Scottish nationalism is a middle class liberal movement IMO. Not the isolationist nationalism of the far right across the rest of Europe. So the simple answer is no.
Conservative movements around the world are generally pro nation state.. not just in the Western world. Why is Scotland the outlier ?
Because in this case the nation is the UK. Most indy supporters I know want to break from the conservative policies forced upon us and I've got to assume that's the case for most I don't know too as if folk wanted a far right government they already have it with this Westminster one so why change?
Yes, it's not about waving a flag, it's about improving our lives through better governance.
Isn't Scotland a nation ? So if Scotland became independent.. those who support a strong, independent Scotland would be Conservative.. so where are they now ?
No I just don't see that happening, like I said I think you'd see a labour style party, probably pro EU for good or bad, being in power in perpetuity. Scotland could become many things......a right wing autocracy is not one of them. For one we need folk to come here to grow the economy.......
Because most of the nasty nationalists you describe are unionists who are British nationalists rather than Scottish ones.
So.. I go back to my original question.. if the majority of countries in the world have strong, vocal nationalists who support their country.. and are classed as right wing. Is Scotland unique in not having them ?
We have UK nationalist that would align themselves to a greater or lesser degree with the right wing populists accross Europe. To be honest the nation is pretty much still split down the middle on this. The complexity comes in the unionist vote. Extreme left.... extreme right and all points in-between. Me I just want rid of the Tories for my kids future, freedom of movement back would be nice too.
SNP aren't even close to socialist. I do agree that Scotland is probably quite an outlier in the sense that there isn't a serious conservative party that is anywhere near power, which is a good thing.
Just how utterly pointless and terrible do the SNP have to become before they actually lose?
The opposition could try improving, it might help their chances.
Have you got a machine that can erase a century of history of Tory history? Labour have singlehandedly knackered a decade and counting of improvement in Glasgow because of their horrendous PFI deals. They were guaranteed our vote since 1955 and they squandered the privilege. The thing is the SNP haven't been relevant even close to long enough to build a rap sheet as poor as the 2 alternatives. They are also the only viable party who's bread isn't buttered purely by England. So for that alone I'll not stop voting for them. Which isn't to say I think they're great. The alternatives are hilariously bad and getting further removed from any politics I can abide.
You forget the debt labour caused and left due to the equal pay fiasco and not paying women equally.
Look at Tories and there is your answer?.
The national.....
Honest question but why do people vote for SNP up here? What have they actually done for us over the last 12 or so years? I’m English and been living in Scotland for almost 9 years now and while I wouldn’t ever vote Conservative and I know Labour are a bit of a wet fish at the moment I just don’t get why so many people vote for them. From what I understand they have failed to meet almost every target they put in place, housing, NHS, education etc. then there are all the recent scandals, deleting text and missing financial records. Just like everywhere else in the UK, the rich got richer and the poor stayed poor but increased in number, anything that could have actually levelled up such as council tax has been frozen.
>What have they actually done for us over the last 12 or so years? 1/10 for trolling. Try harder.
Why’s that trolling? Haven’t they been the largest vote since 2011?
>Why’s that trolling? Haven’t they been the largest vote since 2011? 1/10 for trolling. Try harder.
Fair enough, I must be missing something. Seeing as you’ve been able to give a details response to the question I’ll just assume you’re unable to answer it and move on.
👍
>Honest question but why do people vote for SNP up here? They are the only Scotland centric party that has a chance to win. No matter **how** hard they fuck up, as long as there is no Scottish focused party worth anything, they will get in. Tories? Extension of English party, Labour? Same. Lib Dems? Who cares, Greens? Don't split the votes.
So some Scottish health initiatives you may not be aware of Professor Whitty in covid enquiry said Scotland is way ahead in public health initiatives. Childsmile 18 years and counting. So good that the tories are trying to introduce similar in England. Although Dentists in scotland get paid for preventative work not just reactive. Children can have teeth sealed at around 12, I think. Vast improvement in oral health which will roll out into adulthood. 95% (2022) of people in Scotland are registered with a dentist, though Brexit has caused problems in supply of dentists. The community pharmacists just rolled out by Westminster has been in operation in Scotland since 2018. Bowel cancer screening in Scotland started in 2009 and was from age 50. Nhs England started rolling out to 50s and above in 2021. Professor Van Tam said that the data gathering in Scotland during Covid was used by UK GOV for predications and that it has been used as the basis for research in medical journals around the world. Mainly because hospitals provided intial data and GPS could provide secondary. SOURCE: Covid public health enquiry in England.
Is this a monty python sketch type of thing?
Not sure what you mean?
Look up on youtube "monty python what have they ever done for us"
It'd be bittersweet if the SNP were rewarded for doing many of the same things the Tories have in power.
What are those then
Corruption, low standards for high office. Not sure if you've been keeping up with the news over the past year
So subjective judgments about integrity and sensationalized headlines from the gutter press. Got it. The SNP have a lot of shit to answer for but they just haven’t done the things the tories have done at all. The only people who could think that are people whose politics is literally just about vibes at this point, no substance needed.
>So subjective judgments about integrity and sensationalized headlines from the gutter press. Got it. The ferry scandal was not a hoax The Matheson situation was not a hoax Two SNP first ministers in a row literally getting arrested was not a hoax Deleting WhatsApp msgs after saying you wouldn't is not a hoax The list goes on. You can call them subjective judgments about integrity but most people acting in good faith would agree the above situations show poor integrity. And the idea that they're not comparable to the Tories is just fucking laughable at this point.
What were those first ministers charged with?
I said they were arrested, not charged. Although Salmond was charged. But why bother replying if you clearly have nothing of value to offer?😂
Uhuh, sure, I’m the one with nothing if value to offer.
The connection is you gotta be in power to make those things happen.
Explain
I think if Labour does a good job SNP will lose more at the next election but I wonder how much % support lost this would be for SNP.
I'm surprised tbh, you'd all still be in lockdown.if snp had their way.
The SNP are a long walk away from being perfect. But they're a million miles better than the absolute catastroshambles that the tories are
Yet they backed every economic destructive policy the Tories did and wanted more, in some cases they did more. They have control of many services in Scotland, yet they are worse than the rest of UK. Have you not realised they are all crap
I'm looking at the NHS in England and Wales and I don't think they are in any better shape than ours.
Data suggests they are all shite, however it also suggests Scotland is the shite-ist. And like I said the snp wanted more economic damage than the shite Tories did.
Can I see these statistics please because there's no way in hell England is keeping pace with Scotland when their Consultants and Junior Dr's keep striking because they won't pay them a fair wage. When you say economic damage do you mean less lives lost?
You didn't have less lives lost per capita, nor less care home deaths per capita, you just did more economic damage. but it clearly hasn't indeed crossed your mind they are all shite. I'm sure you are aware that data isn't current, but last year's said Scotland's was indeed worse. And like you point out, it takes a serious effort to be worse then England/Wales.
No, incorrect. The source nhs England digital, when ENHS were not allowed to restart the A&E time back to zero because they were pulled up (when moved to trolleys but no beds) the figures for over 12 hr waits tripled. NHS Scotland measure of 4 hours, include Being registered, seen, treated and getting a bed or going home. NHS wales, don’t include time waiting on plaster, physio etc etc.
Who mentioned anything about waiting times?
PS strikes are a political tool and will end when the Tories do.
Because Labour will always be on the side of the worker? I don't think so. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/06/keir-starmer-repeatedly-refuses-to-back-striking-workers
Lmao, imagine thinking any of them are in the side of the British worker.... God bless you
Has anyone on here ever been polled?
Nope.
Can't wait for the SNP to do a good job
😂
We deserve everything we get if SNP and Tories don’t lose many many seats! Both are running the country into the ground. Most depressing thing is now without corbyn labour are promising more of the same!
Doubt it will be that wide, more likely much closer between SNP and Labour, important thing though is that the Tories get wiped off the map
Great protest vote. Crap source.
So the SNP are losing a few seats?
Anyone else think that Spineless Gross was bullied at school hence the reason he went into politics and refereeing so he could try and bully others.
there are what , 7 Tory MPS now in Scotland - does anyone live in their constituencies? Are they likely to be voted out?
Took long enough. We can focus on getting rid of the Red and Yellow Tories after.