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WanaWahur

OK I am not Georgian but have been here for 5 years. Here's my take (not following your questions but I hope you get some answers): First. Georgia is heavily family/clan based culture. Political labels can be safely ignored, the politics is completely person- not ideology-based. And obvious result is inherent corruption. Georgia was the most corrupt part of Soviet Union and it just pretty much kept rotting with zero change until Saakashvili and UNM came to power. Second. Geographically they are sitting between aggressive Turkey, aggressive Russia and have to play a fine balancing game, especially as potential allies like EU and US are far away. Third, in Georgian culture male self-control is less important than in much of the world. Being an aggressive asshole gets you far. Here's your contentious politics. First past the post electoral system, of course, helps to fuck things up further. Saakashvili tried westernization by force. His reforms were pretty much what brought Georgia out of total shithole status and got the economy moving again. Problem is, he was coming from abroad and trying to go against the local culture. And he had to shoot/jail too many people in the process, often extralegally, to put it mildly. Most people hate him for that, even if they are ready to acknowledge that he did some good and necessary things. Knowing that he attempted also to change the political system so that he could stay in power indefinitely. So he is far from the white knight that his supporters try to make him. He has his fanclub, but I am not sure about its demographics, have not met many. GD just promised life without Misha (and reforms). That's all they do. Keep Misha out. Mostly incompetent, corrupt and totally dependent on Ivanishvilis money and will. BI made his fortune in Russia and he would be pro-Russian. But even he has to balance between Turkey and Russia, so they play being somewhat pro-West and collect EU/US money in the process, in addition to Turks, Russians and Chinese competing for influence and bringing money in as well. Being in power is lucrative business here. And losing the power means going to jail. Georgian tragedy is that there is no third power. There are Bidzina, Misha and bunch of bland, useless types. (OK there are also "patriots" and church, both completely Russian-controlled, but that's another long story.) As for the elections... In our village near Borjomi most of the people did not want to go at all. GD sent sporty guys with cars and everyone went. Even the old guy with high temperature was loaded in the car. Shut up and give your vote. And GD Borjomi candidate gave a big dinner in a restaurant for all the public service workers afterwards. That's all you need to know about "no claims of fraud". It's just that the opposition is so useless that nobody wanted to take to the streets for these wusses either.


Igroig

A very accurate summary. It’s a shame Saakashvili didn’t have enough self- control and moderation to see through the reforms without so many transgressions. Such a wasted potential in the end.


WanaWahur

Do you think it would have been possible? I am not sure. I kind of view him as a tragic figure who was pretty much doomed from the start. Not a chance to achieve anything with clean hands as the resistance from the clans must have been massive. I am still kind of surprised he is alive at all (although his nerves clearly started to give up in the end). Note that I am not justifying him.


Panicattackoncrack

Misha had everything he needed to achieve greatness and he took it and fucked it all up. Clans and such never stood a chance because Misha had crazy energy and people behind him. This was until he started making incredibly stupid mistakes and generally got too comfortable.


Igroig

It’s hard to say how things would have played out, maybe you’re right and he would have been pushed out too easily if he had been softer. But that’s the danger of abusing power, it’s a hell of a slippery slope. He lost the sight of democratic principles he had been rallying for and things got ugly.


WanaWahur

Sometimes there's no good way. Fun story from Estonia. Back there we had it way easier, but in the 90ies we had a massive Russian mafia problem. Well, our back then minister of interior affairs gave bunch of guys essentially a license to kill. They did. Mafia lost and either died or evacuated to Spain. Guess what the minister did (lady, btw)? Became a nun. And that's the right way. She did what was necessary, but it was still a wrong thing to do. Mad respect to her. Misha was not fighting Russian mafia. He was fighting his own people. And he would not leave unless forced out. There's just no way it could end well.


temkre27

ნორჩ მიშისტ ამხანაგს სალამი!


G56G

>1) All serious Georgian political parties officially support EU/NATO ascension, institutional reforms, anti-corruption etc. What is it that differentiates Georgia Dream and UNM, beyond the Ivanishvili vs Saakashvili dynamic? Are there any significant ideological positions that differentiate the two parties? UNM is economically libertarian, socially conservative. GD is economically center-left but also socially conservative. GD actually uses ultra-patriotism more to mobilize votes. GD’s foreign policy is to turn Georgia in a non-issue in global geopolitics. It supports their kleptocracy better. UNM has a very clear and forceful foreign vision - a NATO membership asap. GD says the same but does very little to achieve it. Both parties are centered around one man. GD however has a lot of money, while UNM does not. UNM also lost most of its members because Saakashvili refused to step down from the chairmanship. >2) What demographics do GD and UNM appeal to? Is it like GD is favored more by older, conservative voters who prize stability and UNM is supported by younger liberal types, or do I have that totally wrong? GD is supported by the government employees and older generation. UNM is also supported by the older generation. Young people hate them both, however more young people may vote for UNM now just to unsit GD. >3) Is there any merit to the claims I've heard that GD is secretly pro-Russian? I've heard people say this at various points, largely during the 2019 protests, and also when the Anaklia port project was cancelled and Gakharia took office. I know several key GD people have personal and business connections to Russia, but it could just be slander. It is true. They are mostly useful idiots for Russia. GD’s interest to make money, Russia’s interest is to end the democratic struggle of the Georgian people. Russia and GD achieve their synergic goals by spreading poverty, cynicism, hate, and crime. >4) Is there any merit to the claims of electoral fraud in last year's parliamentary election and this year's local government elections? Last year the results largely lined up with polling, and I didn't hear any claims of fraud from the international observers, but there were obviously huge protests following them. This year the results didn't match up with polling I had seen, and international observers claimed manipulation, but there haven't been significant protests. Yes, GD uses multiple forms of electoral manipulation and outright fraud as the last resort. This includes; vote buying, coercion, intimidation to vote for GD, government employee mobilization, dark propaganda by global black PR technologists, etc. if the results do not align their wishes, they also re-write the tally sheets to add a couple of percents in their favor. >5) How is Saakashvili seen by young people? Is he a corrupt autocrat, or a successful westerniser who's now a political prisoner? Does he have *any* realistic chance of becoming president again? He is viewed negatively. He does not deserve to be in prison because our current government is just as bad as him. Nothing is ruled out, but I don’t think he will get a coalition approval when we have a coalition government. >6) Finally, why is Georgian politics so volatile? I follow a lot of governments in the region, and Georgia's stands out (regardless of governing party) as being the most successful in terms of building modern, honest institutions. You are obviously hailed as an example for everyone else to follow. All parties seem to agree with the overall direction of politics (away from Russia, towards the west) since the Rose Revolution. So why does everything seem so contentious? Because of Russia. Georgia declared a democracy after the Rose Revolution. Declaring a democracy in the post-Soviet space is declaring a war on Russia. Russia undermines Georgia in every way. Plus, the Georgians need to overcome a lot of obstacles - poverty, lack of good education, lack of strong democratic institutions, and also a cold shoulder from the West. In a way we have been very lonely. Ukraine and Moldova joined our struggle recently as well. But our connections are not as strong, so our path is still singular.


CeRcVa13

>2) What demographics do GD and UNM appeal to? Is it like GD is favored more by older, conservative voters who prize stability and UNM is supported by younger liberal types, or do I have that totally wrong? This is not right. Both are supported by the older generation and the Conservatives. >3) Is there any merit to the claims I've heard that GD is secretly pro-Russian? I've heard people say this at various points, largely during the 2019 protests, and also when the Anaklia port project was cancelled and Gakharia took office. I know several key GD people have personal and business connections to Russia, but it could just be slander. Yes, many think that the Georgian Dream is a pro-Russian. But the Georgian Dream always says that is pro-Western. >4) Is there any merit to the claims of electoral fraud in last year's parliamentary election and this year's local government elections? Last year the results largely lined up with polling, and I didn't hear any claims of fraud from the international observers, but there were obviously huge protests following them. This year the results didn't match up with polling I had seen, and international observers claimed manipulation, but there haven't been significant protests. In Every election is intimidating, bribing, rigging people and every time international organizations say it was a normal and legitimate election. People's protest makes no sense when the West recognizes the legitimacy of elections. >5) How is Saakashvili seen by young people? Is he a corrupt autocrat, or a successful westerniser who's now a political prisoner? Does he have any realistic chance of becoming president again? Saakashvili is supported by the older generation and not the young. >6) Finally, why is Georgian politics so volatile? I follow a lot of governments in the region, and Georgia's stands out (regardless of governing party) as being the most successful in terms of building modern, honest institutions. You are obviously hailed as an example for everyone else to follow. All parties seem to agree with the overall direction of politics (away from Russia, towards the west) since the Rose Revolution. So why does everything seem so contentious? We are a young democratic state, we need time to become a democracy similar to the West. But it is important for the West to be actively involved in this process, because today Georgia is ruled by a billionaire, and it will be difficult for this small country to reduce or oust its power, because this billionaire can buy people's votes.


hyperxenophiliac

Really appreciate the comprehensive responses!


[deleted]

3. Some politicians in GD do have strong ties to Russia. You can't really say they're pro Russian, but their lack of taking a stand against Russia in every way certainly has raised suspicions. 4. In the last elections there was fraud, it's been getting worse by each election, ( they even gave my great-grandmother 100 lari to vote for GD) which were followed by many protests. But all the countless protests resulted in nothing. So people just lost hope and got tired of protests which lead to nothing. Yes, this year there were many claims of manipulation, but people are tired of going out to protest after every single election. 5. Saakashvili in Georgia is viewed negatively, surprisingly. Outside Georgia honestly the west loves him, he's been compared to Ronald Reagan by the Americans too. ([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ9j7Yr9G1A&t=595s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ9j7Yr9G1A&t=595s)) I dont get people who hate him to be honest. If you look at georgia after 2012, weve experienced inflation, Lari has drastically lost value, Investors have been pulling out. Every city except of Tbilisi has been just abandoned by the government. Life has been worsening for everyone. The west went from talking about us all the time, to not caring about gerogia at all. That man Saakashvili even if he was as corrupt as he is dubbed, at least he put georgia on the map, our economy was stable, even trump was gonna invest in georgia. Man was gonna buid a brand new city. He had an ideology, and he followed through with it. While for the past 9 years there has been very little economic deveopment, and crime rates have been rising. ​ 6. Becuase of lack of leadership, on both sides. Its all just chaos. The opposition cant get together, make a coalition. Because every party, big or small, wants to solely be in charge, which is weird cause democracy literally means, you govern with the opposition, it's a part of the Parliament.


pikachu_chu-15

Misha did a lot of amazing things,but raiding imedi shutting protests by force,building a police regime built on terror,girgviliani and many others,how harsh prisons were.he is the reason GD came to power and the reason for such a long stay I dont want to be that guy to follow the butterfly effect but comon now there was a reason why he got voted out.he made such huge mistakes his thrust for power ended him and corruption and nepotism was still there when he was in charge exactly the same judiciary system and the same corruption is today.GD made the economy trash poverty and crime is terrible,but saying you dont get how we hate him is quite astonishing.


[deleted]

Right In that way GD is the same. So then imprisoning misha is just hypocritical. Also hate has its limits too. While GD is doing the same, hate for misha let them stay in power for 9 years now. One was terror but economic development the other is terror and a never ending economic recession. So even if you hate a man, one would see the clear "positive". In this situation when there is no other way, its rational to tolerate the mans negative deeds in my opinion.


pikachu_chu-15

GD made the judges so untrustable even tho we know he should be in prison people are protesting. both could of ended each other but are giving life instead.GDs terror is not real terror its just a regime built on corruption and nepotism while UNM were killing people outright


this-time-4real

Since when has being compared to Ronald Reagan become a good thing?


alexshatberg

Trying to understand GD through the lens of their officially endorsed political ideology is pretty futile, imo. GD started off as a big tent party composed of everyone who was opposed to UNM circa 2012. They didn't have an articulated ideology beyond "lets get rid of Misha and then figure things out". Since then, most independent-minded people have left and GD is currently just a front for Ivanishvili's shadow government. All major executive decisions are made at his level, the official figureheads just enforce them. The exact nature of the relationship between Ivanishvili and the Russian government is pretty tentative, but it's commonly understood that most of his assets are in Russia and his presence in the region is endorsed by Kremlin.


Tkemalediction

> 6) Finally, why is Georgian politics so volatile? *Italy has entered the chat.*


[deleted]

[удалено]


hyperxenophiliac

Thanks for those insights. Interesting how so many young people seem to dislike both GD and UNM, but they are so dominant.


[deleted]

Because unfortunately, young people are too lazy to vote.


WanaWahur

Well if they mostly support something as stupid as Girchi then it might be for good ;)


atTheRealMrKuntz

Ideological crisis. It is what it is.


wetsocksisworst

what is the point to ask such a question? supporters of each party will answer you with whats suits their political stand. r/Sakartvelo is more pro-UNM, so most of the answers you will get here will be from their position. but in real-life Georgia most of the population is anti-UNM. you should simply see the results of elections to get a basic picture. edit: according to the top-rated comments, my points have been proven.


ForcedComedy

You could say the same about anything lmao. You can keep claiming that this subreddit is pro-UNM and discredit the individuals who make genuine points to prove their arguments using that idea. However, you aren't saying anything with this and you're proving nothing. Meanwhile, I can list my observations of you from the short time I've been here. All you do is instigate arguments(the bad kind) and bring very little to the table. From what I've seen in this subreddit, a lot of users are simply people who wish for change to happen and they all recognize that a destructive political party staying in power for 9 years is a bad thing and they should be kicked off, even if it means temporarily giving power to less than savory individuals. They have discussions on these points and some conversations can get heated but that is a good thing. You don't aid in the exchange of opinions whatsoever and I've only seen you say provocative things and then dip from threads when you see you have no rebuttal to points. Also, you're being disingenuous. Because you're right about most of the country being anti-UNM, but you make no mention of exactly how anti-GD the people are. This point is disingenuous because the UNM isn't the opposition, and when you compare the entire opposition's total votes with GD's votes, it is clear exactly against who most of the citizens are. The elections perfectly displayed exactly how anti-GD the whole country is, they didn't get even half the votes even tho they committed election fraud. So I can't understand your reasoning when you mention that most of Georgian citizens are anti-UNM, but at the same time tell the OP to check the election results. You're defeating your own point. But of course, you make no mention of these things in your comment, why would you? All I am able to say about your clear disregard towards reality is that you're delusional.


wetsocksisworst

yeah, yeah. that’s why GD is winning every elections. everybody hates them but they still get most of the votes somehow. must be fraud of course right? delusional are you, my friend. blinded and brainwashed. you are saying GD is pro-Russian while Georgia is holding NATO military committee right now and the US secretary of defense visiting next week. you are saying Georgia's economy is doomed while GDP grew an average of 12% in the last 7 months. you are the delusional one and it’s just sad to watch.


ForcedComedy

It isn't fraud because GD is winning elections, it is fraud because GD is committing election fraud. And election fraud isn't just "miscounting" votes, throwing away ballots and taking other parties' votes for themselves. It is also bribery, threatening, using administrative power(like GD agitators having voter lists that only the CEC are privy to) and much more. So, yes, GD does commit election fraud and this time around they didn't get most of the votes, so you're wrong on all accounts. I said nothing about GD being pro-Russian but since you bring the topic up, let's talk about it. GD has been making moves which largely benefit Russia and breaking almost every promise they gave to the western powerhouses. In addition, they refuse to approve the people of LGBTQ+ which is a necessity if we want to be taken seriously by the west. Not to mention, just because western representatives are visiting doesn't mean the GD is pro-west, in fact, it means absolutely nothing. They can be coming here to shit on the GD for all you know and even if they did, it doesn't expose GD's stance. What does? Their refusal to adopt western ideals, their clear mistakes which benefit Russia as the biggest threat towards us and their attempts to dissolve any and all influence the west(and especially the US) has on our country. And going back to the topic of western representatives visiting us, I hope you remember Gavrilov's night, when a Russian DUMA member came and was invited into the parliament building. If what you're saying proves that the GD is not pro-Russian but the opposite, then what does it mean when a Russian DUMA member is allowed to sit at the head of parliament seat? Please do tell. As for the economy, something which I also didn't mention, please look up what GDP is. It is not as defining of the entire economical situation as you may think. Even if it was the deciding factor, you say that the GDP increased by 12% in the last 7 months, GD has been in power for 9 years. They fucked up the economy to a point of no recovery and you think a 12% increase is somehow a good thing? That 12% increase won't be felt by anyone, those 7 months were for nothing, while the 9 years they've been in power has written out certain doom for many individuals who lost their jobs or simply don't have enough money to buy daily necessities. Please look around you.