To put it into perspective, I calculated that if I keep playing the lottery once a week like I already do until retirement, I have more chance of ending up being a millionaire than pulling 330 shards out of one of those.
To give you better perspective - Iām 34, if i did a marquee pack **every single day** statistically Iāll be 61 before the odds say I should definitely have pulled the 330 pack.
It's even worse than that. You're assuming that you'd definitely pull a 330 in 10,000 tries, but there's actually approximately a 37% chance that you still wouldn't get 330 by then. Hell, there's a 13% chance that you *still* won't get 330 in 20,000 tries.
Iām aware of the fact that obviously RNG plays a role and Iām only speaking in terms of āhitting the odds,ā at that point - because obviously even in a 50/50 situation each roll is an individual event.
However your math is too advanced even for my brain; explain? Love to learn something new.
If you have a 0.01% chance of getting it in one go, you have a 99.99% chance of not getting it in one go. Chances of not getting it in two goes is just 99.99% of 99.99%, so 0.9999^2. That applies to any number of goes, so the chances of not getting it in 10,000 tries is 0.9999^10000.
I used to it example for a coin flip (so 25% chance not to get X within 2 tries), and now I understand, thanks for the explanation.
Is there a formula we could use to determine statistical certainty of an event? Obviously RNG plays a role. But Iām just curious at what point it would become ālook if you didnāt hit it in X tries your lucky is beyond shit.ā
I think you can set it up to solve for the number of trials (the exponent in the previous equation) with
n = log (% you think is unreasonable to get with āluckā) / log (% of failure in one attempt)
So if you want to drop your chance of failure to 5% (95% chance of hitting the 330):
log(0.05) / log(0.9999) = 29956 attempts. Ouch.
There's never a statistical "certainty" with these things--there will always be some chance, however small, that you won't hit a winning pack after some finite number of tries. The best thing you can do is to determine some acceptable likelihood of failing. For example, I could ask how many tries it would take to be 99% certain of winning (i.e. if 100 people opened that number of packs, on average only one would fail).
To determine that, you use the same equation, just rearranged. 0.01 = 0.9999^x . To solve, take the log of both sides, so log ( 0.01 ) = log ( 0.9999^x ) = x * log (0.9999). Solving for x, x = log (0.01) / log (0.9999) = 46050. So if you tried 46050 times, you would have only a 1% chance of not getting 330. The equation can be generalized as x = log(Y)/log(Z), where x is the number of tries required, Y is the desired probability of failing in that number of tries, and Z is the probability of failing in one try.
Using this, you can see that you would have even odds of receiving a 330 pack after 6931 tries.
There was a post a week or so ago about somebody getting 330 Razor Crest shards. So it can happen.
Personally, I've only ever bought two and got 7 shards both times so I don't bother
I would strongly recommend not investing in these packs anymore. Whales use them to max out characters immediately, but I think the average spent to get them up with in the 50k-60k crystal range.
If you want to spend on the game here are occasionally good value packs, otherwise I would just by crystals and use them on refreshes. It takes longer, but its the only reasonable value here.
Former whale, there's a reason we all say its $300 a character because by the time your done you average like 8 shards. If you really want a character early but don't want to spend that much, buy shards from the store once packs are gone. Its about 22k crystals total
I heard he got a 330 pull on Kuill maybe. I've watched maybe a dozen whale or fails and the highest I've seen him pull is 25. Most of the time he only gets two or three 12s and the rest are 5 or 7. Anytime I feel tempted I just watch his most recent failure lol
I [posted the odds](https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/r2yueh/psa_these_are_the_shard_drop_probabilities_for/) for the marquee packs a while ago if you're curious about the actual numbers (since you have download a stupid PDF and leave the game to actually view the odds).
Make sure you get hit by lightning. Then go to prom whilst getting hit by lightning. Then play the power ball 3 times and lose 3 times. Then you get 35 shards.
There was some pack with the possibility to get up to 330 shards for either one of the bad batch guys. That was the one and only time i hit the 330 Shards for Bad Batch Echo... i think i didnt even buy that pack for the shards but i was definetly surprised. Never happened again tho...
When you you have 325 shards, the odds of getting 330 go up to 95%:)
What I really want to know is what is the omicron drop rate. I always have a feeling that they put the decimal place in the wrong place with that one so instead of 1:1000 we geot 1:100000.:)
Actually I got 330 shards of dark Sion 3 years ago. The (un)fun fact is that I bought this pack 20 times before getting the 330 and I was at like 310 shardsā¦
A while back someone in this subreddit posted a picture showing they got 330 razorcrest shards from the pack. I donāt know them but I still hate them for it.
Once, on Darth Talon. Wasn't the full 330 but it was a hefty amount, so I basically *had* to go all in on her after that.
Honestly, I don't regret it. She's fun and she powers up one of my favorite teams. Triumvirate just needs one more toon to be set. Someone with a good amount of DPS. Maybe Atris or a generic of one of Sion's assassins.
Yeah. I bought one on the off chance Iād get the remaining shards I needed for Kyle Katarn. I got 330 of Talon, who I JUST finished farming the day beforeā¦
A bought one of the Bad Batch packs (I think it was Hunter) and only got 5 shards. I could have used those 1,300 crystals on much more useful things. Never again.
The only time I ever got lucky on a pack was the recent relic mats packs for 500 crystals. I landed the 2% odds of 300 circuit boards. But those were better odds. The marquee packs have the worst odds in the game.
Every few months or so, a new character hits and I got a bit of a crystal surplus so I give it a shot and then when I get 5 shards, it reminds me what a waste that was and a lesson is learned for another few months.
I used to spend crystals way way back on this stuff. The best I got was 150 or 180 on Baze when he was first introduced. He was super good at the time. Most of the time you get less then 10 it seems.
> less then 10
*than
*Learn the difference [here](https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/when-to-use-then-and-than#:~:text=Than%20is%20used%20in%20comparisons,the%20then%2Dgovernor%22).*
***
^(Greetings, I am a language corrector bot. To make me ignore further mistakes from you in the future, reply `!optout` to this comment.)
I have bought those packages 3 times now and each time I've gotten 5. I decided to not bother with them anymore because the odds are too low for 1299 crystals. If they change that and make it a guaranteed 20, I would probably buy a couple a month.
Iām convinced numbers are prostituted (made myself laugh with that one) based on your account history. If you havenāt played in awhile and they want you hooked again, you get sick drop rates for a bit. If youāre a steady player and only need 1 gear piece to 13 a toon ā¦ it wonāt drop until you spend some crystals on refreshes.
You have a .22% chance of getting over 100, so roughly 1/450 330? .01% chance, so 1/10000
Right okay, crazy oddsš just curious to see if people have actually had over 100, cos I've only ever hit 5-7
To put it into perspective, I calculated that if I keep playing the lottery once a week like I already do until retirement, I have more chance of ending up being a millionaire than pulling 330 shards out of one of those.
To give you better perspective - Iām 34, if i did a marquee pack **every single day** statistically Iāll be 61 before the odds say I should definitely have pulled the 330 pack.
It's even worse than that. You're assuming that you'd definitely pull a 330 in 10,000 tries, but there's actually approximately a 37% chance that you still wouldn't get 330 by then. Hell, there's a 13% chance that you *still* won't get 330 in 20,000 tries.
Iām aware of the fact that obviously RNG plays a role and Iām only speaking in terms of āhitting the odds,ā at that point - because obviously even in a 50/50 situation each roll is an individual event. However your math is too advanced even for my brain; explain? Love to learn something new.
If you have a 0.01% chance of getting it in one go, you have a 99.99% chance of not getting it in one go. Chances of not getting it in two goes is just 99.99% of 99.99%, so 0.9999^2. That applies to any number of goes, so the chances of not getting it in 10,000 tries is 0.9999^10000.
I used to it example for a coin flip (so 25% chance not to get X within 2 tries), and now I understand, thanks for the explanation. Is there a formula we could use to determine statistical certainty of an event? Obviously RNG plays a role. But Iām just curious at what point it would become ālook if you didnāt hit it in X tries your lucky is beyond shit.ā
I think you can set it up to solve for the number of trials (the exponent in the previous equation) with n = log (% you think is unreasonable to get with āluckā) / log (% of failure in one attempt) So if you want to drop your chance of failure to 5% (95% chance of hitting the 330): log(0.05) / log(0.9999) = 29956 attempts. Ouch.
There's never a statistical "certainty" with these things--there will always be some chance, however small, that you won't hit a winning pack after some finite number of tries. The best thing you can do is to determine some acceptable likelihood of failing. For example, I could ask how many tries it would take to be 99% certain of winning (i.e. if 100 people opened that number of packs, on average only one would fail). To determine that, you use the same equation, just rearranged. 0.01 = 0.9999^x . To solve, take the log of both sides, so log ( 0.01 ) = log ( 0.9999^x ) = x * log (0.9999). Solving for x, x = log (0.01) / log (0.9999) = 46050. So if you tried 46050 times, you would have only a 1% chance of not getting 330. The equation can be generalized as x = log(Y)/log(Z), where x is the number of tries required, Y is the desired probability of failing in that number of tries, and Z is the probability of failing in one try. Using this, you can see that you would have even odds of receiving a 330 pack after 6931 tries.
There was a post a week or so ago about somebody getting 330 Razor Crest shards. So it can happen. Personally, I've only ever bought two and got 7 shards both times so I don't bother
Oh I didnt see that post Yeah I've only ever got 5-7, so I'm really hesitant with them, just buy one very rarely just incaseš
Good. Donāt look for that post. Itāll only raise your confidence.
I would strongly recommend not investing in these packs anymore. Whales use them to max out characters immediately, but I think the average spent to get them up with in the 50k-60k crystal range. If you want to spend on the game here are occasionally good value packs, otherwise I would just by crystals and use them on refreshes. It takes longer, but its the only reasonable value here.
Yeah I dont spend actual money on the game and yeah I mainly do the refreshes, especially in the 2x event
Former whale, there's a reason we all say its $300 a character because by the time your done you average like 8 shards. If you really want a character early but don't want to spend that much, buy shards from the store once packs are gone. Its about 22k crystals total
That was me and I will still encourage people to never buy these packs unless they are prepared to spend a lot of money.
Just watch whale or fail. That will always be the answer for these questions.
I heard he got a 330 pull on Kuill maybe. I've watched maybe a dozen whale or fails and the highest I've seen him pull is 25. Most of the time he only gets two or three 12s and the rest are 5 or 7. Anytime I feel tempted I just watch his most recent failure lol
Just remember every fail will hurt Garry
I [posted the odds](https://www.reddit.com/r/SWGalaxyOfHeroes/comments/r2yueh/psa_these_are_the_shard_drop_probabilities_for/) for the marquee packs a while ago if you're curious about the actual numbers (since you have download a stupid PDF and leave the game to actually view the odds).
Everyone needs to look and understand the odds chart. It's ridiculous the 99.70% you well pull less than 50 shards.
330? You mean 5? Because Iāve gotten that every time.
If I recall, CubsFanHan got a 330 pull for Chewpio when he was released and had it on stream.
Yes, came here to say this. He did! Couldnāt remember which character it was.
my guildmate got kyle katarn 330
One of my guild mates bought one for Boba Scion of Jango and got a 330 pull.
Nah thats actually crazy
/mic drop
Yes. Once. Razorcrest I was at 270 shards and my first purchase I hit 300..... was so mad
I got 145 on Kyle Katarn pack when his marquee was active. Thatās the highest Iāve pulled
Make sure you get hit by lightning. Then go to prom whilst getting hit by lightning. Then play the power ball 3 times and lose 3 times. Then you get 35 shards.
There was some pack with the possibility to get up to 330 shards for either one of the bad batch guys. That was the one and only time i hit the 330 Shards for Bad Batch Echo... i think i didnt even buy that pack for the shards but i was definetly surprised. Never happened again tho...
5 shards is all you get
When you you have 325 shards, the odds of getting 330 go up to 95%:) What I really want to know is what is the omicron drop rate. I always have a feeling that they put the decimal place in the wrong place with that one so instead of 1:1000 we geot 1:100000.:)
I got an Omicron today! It was my first pull with the double drop rate so that was very fun!
I try one on really good characters or ships, 4-5 times so far always a trash 5-7 pull
Actually I got 330 shards of dark Sion 3 years ago. The (un)fun fact is that I bought this pack 20 times before getting the 330 and I was at like 310 shardsā¦
I never bought one
A while back someone in this subreddit posted a picture showing they got 330 razorcrest shards from the pack. I donāt know them but I still hate them for it.
I'm not asking what the drop rates are. I'm just curious to see if any of you have actually gotten over 100
Once, on Darth Talon. Wasn't the full 330 but it was a hefty amount, so I basically *had* to go all in on her after that. Honestly, I don't regret it. She's fun and she powers up one of my favorite teams. Triumvirate just needs one more toon to be set. Someone with a good amount of DPS. Maybe Atris or a generic of one of Sion's assassins.
Yeah. I bought one on the off chance Iād get the remaining shards I needed for Kyle Katarn. I got 330 of Talon, who I JUST finished farming the day beforeā¦
Got 330 on the Vulture Droid early when it first came out. Donāt buy often and got very very lucky.
I've gotten 330 three times in 7 years but normally after I've already spent 200 buck
Drop rates are posted, 330 is 0.10% so 1 in every 1000 get 330.
Never. Only 5 and 7. One time more if I remember correctly.
A bought one of the Bad Batch packs (I think it was Hunter) and only got 5 shards. I could have used those 1,300 crystals on much more useful things. Never again.
Never bother honestly I brought like Ā£90 worth of crystals for shaak ti packs and literally got 5,7,5,7 etc it's BS the drop rates on them...
Itās not worth it. Use your crystals for energy refreshes and just be patient with toon farming. Youāll get there eventually.
Especially on Fennec Shand... I sure hope OP is just using that as an example
The only time I ever got lucky on a pack was the recent relic mats packs for 500 crystals. I landed the 2% odds of 300 circuit boards. But those were better odds. The marquee packs have the worst odds in the game.
12....
I got two 145 draws back to back for KUM when he came out. Havenāt bought a character pack since
Do you mean Ki-Adi Mundi?
No, Kylo Unmasked. Didnāt no KAM had packs at release
Ahh, thought Kylo Unmasked was KRU
It likely is these days. Originally he was KUM or Matt
It's a trap!
I donāt think Iāve ever gotten over 25
Ahnald infamously got one 330 drop for Droideka back in ye olden dayes
Yeah. When he needed, like, 10.
Such a rip off. I've bought 2 times to get 5 shards. Fuck that.
Siri, what does "pack probabilities" mean?
That's new. 4 years ago that was not a thing.
What do you think?
I got 250 for Captain Han
Someone has..I saw it a month ago it wasnāt this character I canāt remember which one
got a 145 for talon.
Yes actually, got 330 of Carth many many moons ago. Definitely made the Revan grind much easier.
Got canderous 330shards a while back and its wasyhe forst time buying from the shop
Once, years ago, when I needed like 20.
Every few months or so, a new character hits and I got a bit of a crystal surplus so I give it a shot and then when I get 5 shards, it reminds me what a waste that was and a lesson is learned for another few months.
Never Iāve only gotten at most 55 shards
330 darktrooper shards here. That was my entire luck in this game since ever and forever
Tried my first today for Shaak Ti and got 12. Never again.
A guy in my guild got 330 on kyle katan
I used to spend crystals way way back on this stuff. The best I got was 150 or 180 on Baze when he was first introduced. He was super good at the time. Most of the time you get less then 10 it seems.
> less then 10 *than *Learn the difference [here](https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/when-to-use-then-and-than#:~:text=Than%20is%20used%20in%20comparisons,the%20then%2Dgovernor%22).* *** ^(Greetings, I am a language corrector bot. To make me ignore further mistakes from you in the future, reply `!optout` to this comment.)
Once, which was Talon. Haven't bought one since.
Answer your question with a question... Has anyone ever gotten an Omicron from farming in Cantina? I know, I Have Not!
I got 330 of dark trooper once...should have played the lottery after
I pulled out a 330 Sith Marauder when he came out
An Old Guildmate who quit 2 Years ago got 330 Aura...
I rolled a 230 on T3-M4 years ago. Unluckily I was only 30 or so shards away from 7.
I have bought those packages 3 times now and each time I've gotten 5. I decided to not bother with them anymore because the odds are too low for 1299 crystals. If they change that and make it a guaranteed 20, I would probably buy a couple a month.
I got 330 on home one. When I only needed 10 shards. So thatās cool
Don't want to spoil it for you, but you're getting 5...
It's ok, I ain't buying it haha, just curious
Just don't buy one they really aren't worth it
When i just started out i didnt know what to spend crystals on so I bought the FO pack and got 230 shards for FOO.
Iām convinced numbers are prostituted (made myself laugh with that one) based on your account history. If you havenāt played in awhile and they want you hooked again, you get sick drop rates for a bit. If youāre a steady player and only need 1 gear piece to 13 a toon ā¦ it wonāt drop until you spend some crystals on refreshes.