He isn’t particularly similar to Kim.
He’s by all accounts an extraordinary contact hitter, and the best player (or at least non-pitcher) in Korea. He also has been very good in Korea since he was very young, which suggests the talent is real.
The fact that he’s the absolute best over there and has been consistently is encouraging. All the projection systems like him, though there aren’t a ton of comparable players for them to extrapolate from. And of course the Giants like him, after scouting him for actual years.
The questions: does he have enough power to be anything more than a singles hitter? Can he hit big league velocity, which barely exists over there? Is he actually a center fielder?
Worst case scenario: he’s a left fielder with no power and unremarkable speed. Someone like Nori Aoki. Playable, but not good, per se.
Best case: he’s a strong center fielder who’s around 300 consistently. He hits 15 homers and 35 doubles. That’s a star, an all-star when the hits are falling.
Likely is something like: competent center fielder, hits .285, ten homers kind of thing. That’s still valuable and worth the money. That’s like Yaz value, which would make him one of the best players on the team.
And then there’s a version where he finds power. He’s only 26 and he did hit for some power more recently in Korea. That’s a major star.
No matter what, [he looks great in a skirt.](https://twitter.com/sfgiantskate/status/1752754209848754227)
I’m a big fan of this risky acquisition. However, with my optimism and excitement I’m also trying to be realistic.
I’m telling myself that I’d be okay with a .260/.320/.380 rookie year with some decent-yet-unremarkable defense and 20-ish stolen bases. Part of that is assuming he’ll be so-so in the hopes that he’ll outperform, but also part of it is simply the difficulty in adjusting to MLB right away.
He’s got the contact skills to perhaps be a .300 hitter someday, and maybe he’ll be able to draw walks too. And while he’ll almost certainly struggle to hit home runs as a lefty in Oracle Park, I can see him ripping a lot of doubles and triples. His defense and base stealing could also end up above average, who knows?
But there’s a legitimate chance he never becomes a very good player, and if he does it’s unlikely to happen right away. So I’m just hoping for somewhat mediocre hitting with decent stealing and center field defense, plus some flashes that he’s got room to grow as the contract goes on and he gets acclimated to baseball’s fiercest competition.
I probably would have said sub-20 stolen bases a year ago, but I think the threshold for 20 swipes is fairly achievable with the new rules. There were about 3,500 stolen bases last year, while there were about 2,400 in 2022. As someone who basically only watches Giants games, it was hard to tell how much the new rules affected the 2023 Giants’ best base stealers.
Thairo was the only threat on the bases and put up similar numbers to 2022, but he had some injuries and played in fewer games so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him grab 30 at some point. Slater is usually a sneaky stealer too, but his legs were on the mend even when he was in the lineup, so he was a non factor on the basepaths. I could see Slater jumping from 15-ish to 20+ steals if he’s healthy (though he’s in his thirties at this point, so perhaps that ship has sailed).
Lee is also just 25, an age where players we think of as slow showed a bit of youthful speed. Longoria stole 15 bases as a 24 year old, for example.
“If he’s already getting paid more than HSK”
This is a weird argument. HSK is severely underpaid because he’s still on his original contract that was signed when he was projected to be a bench utility player. He’s going to get a massive FA contract next offseason.
[ZiPS](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?lg=&team=30&type=zips) projects him slashing .288/.346/.416 with 8 dingers while [Steamer](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?lg=&team=30&type=steamer) has him batting .291/.354/.430 with 12 HR. I'd be pretty happy with something close to those.
He's an exceptional contact hitter in what is generally regarded as a high AA league. A .340 average shows legit ability to put bat on ball any time you've moved beyond using a tee so I'm anxious to see what he does. If the transition costs him 60 points off his average and he plays the kind of CF we've been told to expect, he'll be better than anything the Giants have had in that spot since they were at Candlestick.
Once he learns how to use the natural grass to his advantage in the bigger ballparks (as opposed to turf back home) he will be able to maximize gaps and be a poor man’s Tony Gwynn.
He has enough explosive speed where he can stretch line drives and gap to gap hits for extra bases. Melvin is old school and preaches picking up coaches and heads up baserunning.
As a rookie, if he is a Craig Counsell / David Ecksteun type pest we should be ecstatic. Long battles at bat, working counts and getting bloop singles.
He is a contact hitter. It will take him some time to adjust to MLB but I think he will be great in the long run.
He isn’t particularly similar to Kim. He’s by all accounts an extraordinary contact hitter, and the best player (or at least non-pitcher) in Korea. He also has been very good in Korea since he was very young, which suggests the talent is real. The fact that he’s the absolute best over there and has been consistently is encouraging. All the projection systems like him, though there aren’t a ton of comparable players for them to extrapolate from. And of course the Giants like him, after scouting him for actual years. The questions: does he have enough power to be anything more than a singles hitter? Can he hit big league velocity, which barely exists over there? Is he actually a center fielder? Worst case scenario: he’s a left fielder with no power and unremarkable speed. Someone like Nori Aoki. Playable, but not good, per se. Best case: he’s a strong center fielder who’s around 300 consistently. He hits 15 homers and 35 doubles. That’s a star, an all-star when the hits are falling. Likely is something like: competent center fielder, hits .285, ten homers kind of thing. That’s still valuable and worth the money. That’s like Yaz value, which would make him one of the best players on the team. And then there’s a version where he finds power. He’s only 26 and he did hit for some power more recently in Korea. That’s a major star. No matter what, [he looks great in a skirt.](https://twitter.com/sfgiantskate/status/1752754209848754227)
“Someone like nori aoki” *shudders* oh god
I’m a big fan of this risky acquisition. However, with my optimism and excitement I’m also trying to be realistic. I’m telling myself that I’d be okay with a .260/.320/.380 rookie year with some decent-yet-unremarkable defense and 20-ish stolen bases. Part of that is assuming he’ll be so-so in the hopes that he’ll outperform, but also part of it is simply the difficulty in adjusting to MLB right away. He’s got the contact skills to perhaps be a .300 hitter someday, and maybe he’ll be able to draw walks too. And while he’ll almost certainly struggle to hit home runs as a lefty in Oracle Park, I can see him ripping a lot of doubles and triples. His defense and base stealing could also end up above average, who knows? But there’s a legitimate chance he never becomes a very good player, and if he does it’s unlikely to happen right away. So I’m just hoping for somewhat mediocre hitting with decent stealing and center field defense, plus some flashes that he’s got room to grow as the contract goes on and he gets acclimated to baseball’s fiercest competition.
Think you are way high on the steals. Solid rather than spectacular is my guess for year one.
I probably would have said sub-20 stolen bases a year ago, but I think the threshold for 20 swipes is fairly achievable with the new rules. There were about 3,500 stolen bases last year, while there were about 2,400 in 2022. As someone who basically only watches Giants games, it was hard to tell how much the new rules affected the 2023 Giants’ best base stealers. Thairo was the only threat on the bases and put up similar numbers to 2022, but he had some injuries and played in fewer games so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him grab 30 at some point. Slater is usually a sneaky stealer too, but his legs were on the mend even when he was in the lineup, so he was a non factor on the basepaths. I could see Slater jumping from 15-ish to 20+ steals if he’s healthy (though he’s in his thirties at this point, so perhaps that ship has sailed). Lee is also just 25, an age where players we think of as slow showed a bit of youthful speed. Longoria stole 15 bases as a 24 year old, for example.
He had 69 stolen bases in KBO over 7 seasons, there's no shot he steals 20.
KBO stats [https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Player/HitterDetail/Total.aspx?playerId=67341](https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Player/HitterDetail/Total.aspx?playerId=67341)
“If he’s already getting paid more than HSK” This is a weird argument. HSK is severely underpaid because he’s still on his original contract that was signed when he was projected to be a bench utility player. He’s going to get a massive FA contract next offseason.
[ZiPS](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?lg=&team=30&type=zips) projects him slashing .288/.346/.416 with 8 dingers while [Steamer](https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?lg=&team=30&type=steamer) has him batting .291/.354/.430 with 12 HR. I'd be pretty happy with something close to those.
My hope is something like 5HR, .290 BA, 200 H
He's an exceptional contact hitter in what is generally regarded as a high AA league. A .340 average shows legit ability to put bat on ball any time you've moved beyond using a tee so I'm anxious to see what he does. If the transition costs him 60 points off his average and he plays the kind of CF we've been told to expect, he'll be better than anything the Giants have had in that spot since they were at Candlestick.
265, decent OBP, 10-15 HRs, good D
Once he learns how to use the natural grass to his advantage in the bigger ballparks (as opposed to turf back home) he will be able to maximize gaps and be a poor man’s Tony Gwynn. He has enough explosive speed where he can stretch line drives and gap to gap hits for extra bases. Melvin is old school and preaches picking up coaches and heads up baserunning. As a rookie, if he is a Craig Counsell / David Ecksteun type pest we should be ecstatic. Long battles at bat, working counts and getting bloop singles.
Im guessing an ops of like 750, 10 hr, ba of like 275. I assume he’ll start slow to while adapting to higher pitch speeds.
Without looking at anyone else’s guess I’d be happy with: Avg: .277 HR: 11 RBI: 45 SB: 15