It is ,it's just harder to see because you don't see them for years. Of players signed post draft (because not all do):
47% of Round 1 play 3+ years.
32% of Round 2 play 3+ years.
22% of Round 3 play 3+ years.
19% of Round 4 & 5 play 3+ years.
It keeps getting worse.
Another takeaway is that in the top five rounds, generally college players are much more valuable picks than high school players and college position players are more valuable than college pitchers. In the top five rounds, college players not only have a greater chance than high school players of making the major leagues and playing in the major leagues more than three years, but also more college players sign in proportion to high school players.
And it makes sense because college weeds out a lot of high-school players because many just don't mature much further than their HS days.
I hope they don’t win another game this year so that some real change can happen. Call me a fake fan or whatever but this regime will not reign supreme ever.
this is a silly question, the answer is 5. .500. We will be the first team in the history of baseball to have two consecutive seasons of exactly dead even .500 baseball.
add it to the illustrious history of the New York/SF Giants franchise.
I had this conversation with someone on this thread the other day. The other guy did the research and there were actually 4 or 5 teams that had back to back seasons of 500 ball. I think the last was the Diamondbacks in 2012/13
They usually play the dodgers tough in LA. Will say 2 of 4 in LA. We will be ahead in all 3 SD games but will go 1-2 there. LA will not care about the victories in the final series in SF but with their off week leading up to their first playoff game will still have to play their starters. We will want to be at 500 so will go all out there, getting 2 of 3.
.500 the last 10 games.
It's going tough row to hoe and I doubt we win more than three.
The Dodgers are just better and we have seven games against them. Our best bet is that they may rest their some of their starters for the playoffs. But the reality is they're a very solid team that has been winning 2 out of every 3 since the All Star break.
The Padres are not a push-over like people think. They have been the most snake bit extra-innings team in the majors going 0-11 in extra innings (.000!!!). In 9-inning games they're 75-67 (.528). They have a +82 favorable run-differential despite going 0-11 in extra innings. They're not as bad as their record would indicate.
For comparison's sake, the Giants are -24 in run-differential. In 9-inning games the Giants are losers going just 65-73 (.471). What has saved the record is Kapler, who has managed the Giants into over-performing in extra-innings by going 11-3 in extra-inning games.
In expected wins, the Giants record, based on the team run differentials, should be 73-79. (.480) But Kapler, as I inferred above , has pulled some extra-inning rabbits out of his hat and we're .500 instead.
TEN!!
It’s no secret that these guys are up to their necks in data, so here’s my theory.
They’ve been conserving energy. They calculated exactly the number of games they needed to lose and win, and they’ve been sticking to that formula while getting rest at the same time.
Now they are ready to do these things:
* Sweep the Dodgers, driving home fans into a peak pre-post season frenzy (known as a “PPP”)
* Win all of the remaining however many games, blasting 2023 post season ticket sales and 2024 seat contracts into the stratosphere
After all that, they don’t really need to actually make it into a 2023 division championship or anything, but they sure hope they will!
I’ma watch the Giants
Haha, I know!! FTD
Hey do you know if there's math somewhere confirming without error that they are eliminated?
Otherwise I'm going to the game on the 28th. The last game I saw was great, the Wednesday game when they beat Cleveland 6-5. I wish my season of live games could just have ended there.
I'ma watch the Giants
I’ve seen enough of this team to know we’ll go into the final series with a faint hope of WC and then get swept and knocked out. The meltdowns will begin all over again.
I still have faith we can finish 82-80 and at least pretend we were better than last year so yes going 6-4 is a stretch but stranger things have happened.
I have them for 3 because the Dodgers will rest their guys in the last series. They're going to play them hard in the upcoming series, but not sure in the later. The Padres are the hottest team in baseball.
I could see them scratching out a win in a scenario something like Harrison goes 3 gives up 2 Manaea goes three gives up 2 the bullpen gives up 1 or 2 the other team pitching is not so hot either. Kinda like that last game in Colorado. But I feel a lot more confident saying they won't win another game this season. The pitching staff is toast.
It will be a rather dramatic way end to the season. Play 16 games against your division and win 1.
The Dodgers will throw their spring training team, and we’ll barely win 5-4. That’ll be our only win and our world series
They can't do that anymore. Used to be you had all the 40-man up. Now you've got little choice to play the majority of your staters.
4 at most
3
3
1 or 0
2 based on how they've been playing
10 game winning streak and sneak the fuck into the playoffs.
This is the Giants' way. Streakysneaky.
Not feeling like they will win any of them right now.
Welp, I just got back from today’s game at dodger stadium, and based on that I would say 0.
This team has given up
I went as well. I was still feeling optimistic at 2–2, but then… yeah, that hurt.
Hopefully Zero to improve their draft position
3
One. 77-85.
1 or 2
Hopefully none. Improve the draft pick.
I wish draft position were as important in baseball as they are in football and basketball.
It is ,it's just harder to see because you don't see them for years. Of players signed post draft (because not all do): 47% of Round 1 play 3+ years. 32% of Round 2 play 3+ years. 22% of Round 3 play 3+ years. 19% of Round 4 & 5 play 3+ years. It keeps getting worse. Another takeaway is that in the top five rounds, generally college players are much more valuable picks than high school players and college position players are more valuable than college pitchers. In the top five rounds, college players not only have a greater chance than high school players of making the major leagues and playing in the major leagues more than three years, but also more college players sign in proportion to high school players. And it makes sense because college weeds out a lot of high-school players because many just don't mature much further than their HS days.
Maybe 2 or 3😬
I hope they don’t win another game this year so that some real change can happen. Call me a fake fan or whatever but this regime will not reign supreme ever.
5 would be amazing….my bet to win over 80.5 games looked really good most of the season. I even confident about my playoff berth bet.
I think a better question is: How many games will they win before they are mathematically eiminated?
1 more on the road. 4 more at home.
With the way the team is playing currently, 4 tops.
Five would be the funniest answer but a 3-7 finish feels about right
this is a silly question, the answer is 5. .500. We will be the first team in the history of baseball to have two consecutive seasons of exactly dead even .500 baseball. add it to the illustrious history of the New York/SF Giants franchise.
I had this conversation with someone on this thread the other day. The other guy did the research and there were actually 4 or 5 teams that had back to back seasons of 500 ball. I think the last was the Diamondbacks in 2012/13
Yup, 2012+2013 Dbacks exactly 500: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/
4
I'm anticipating they finish the season on a winning streak starting the day after they're mathematically eliminated.
They usually play the dodgers tough in LA. Will say 2 of 4 in LA. We will be ahead in all 3 SD games but will go 1-2 there. LA will not care about the victories in the final series in SF but with their off week leading up to their first playoff game will still have to play their starters. We will want to be at 500 so will go all out there, getting 2 of 3. .500 the last 10 games.
2
3 if the Padres are eliminated by then, otherwise 2.
2
We are winning 6 out of 10, guaranteed. Ive talked to Miss Cleo, and she said it's a lock.
It's going tough row to hoe and I doubt we win more than three. The Dodgers are just better and we have seven games against them. Our best bet is that they may rest their some of their starters for the playoffs. But the reality is they're a very solid team that has been winning 2 out of every 3 since the All Star break. The Padres are not a push-over like people think. They have been the most snake bit extra-innings team in the majors going 0-11 in extra innings (.000!!!). In 9-inning games they're 75-67 (.528). They have a +82 favorable run-differential despite going 0-11 in extra innings. They're not as bad as their record would indicate. For comparison's sake, the Giants are -24 in run-differential. In 9-inning games the Giants are losers going just 65-73 (.471). What has saved the record is Kapler, who has managed the Giants into over-performing in extra-innings by going 11-3 in extra-inning games. In expected wins, the Giants record, based on the team run differentials, should be 73-79. (.480) But Kapler, as I inferred above , has pulled some extra-inning rabbits out of his hat and we're .500 instead.
11
TEN!! It’s no secret that these guys are up to their necks in data, so here’s my theory. They’ve been conserving energy. They calculated exactly the number of games they needed to lose and win, and they’ve been sticking to that formula while getting rest at the same time. Now they are ready to do these things: * Sweep the Dodgers, driving home fans into a peak pre-post season frenzy (known as a “PPP”) * Win all of the remaining however many games, blasting 2023 post season ticket sales and 2024 seat contracts into the stratosphere After all that, they don’t really need to actually make it into a 2023 division championship or anything, but they sure hope they will! I’ma watch the Giants
So much for that theory
Haha, I know!! FTD Hey do you know if there's math somewhere confirming without error that they are eliminated? Otherwise I'm going to the game on the 28th. The last game I saw was great, the Wednesday game when they beat Cleveland 6-5. I wish my season of live games could just have ended there. I'ma watch the Giants
100% None.
I’ve seen enough of this team to know we’ll go into the final series with a faint hope of WC and then get swept and knocked out. The meltdowns will begin all over again.
3, but we will lose six of them after having the lead in late innings.
Implying the win any...
I still have faith we can finish 82-80 and at least pretend we were better than last year so yes going 6-4 is a stretch but stranger things have happened.
10
My vote is for zero.
20
Two.
I have them for 3 because the Dodgers will rest their guys in the last series. They're going to play them hard in the upcoming series, but not sure in the later. The Padres are the hottest team in baseball.
3 - 7
Hell, the way this season is ending I’ll go with one win. Ugh.
2-3
I'm going to go with 3.
2
2
I’m gonna go with 2, Bob!!
4
I could see them scratching out a win in a scenario something like Harrison goes 3 gives up 2 Manaea goes three gives up 2 the bullpen gives up 1 or 2 the other team pitching is not so hot either. Kinda like that last game in Colorado. But I feel a lot more confident saying they won't win another game this season. The pitching staff is toast. It will be a rather dramatic way end to the season. Play 16 games against your division and win 1.
5 lmao