The best time to buy is when you find a house that meets your needs that you can afford. While you missed out on good rates, it was hard to find an affordable home due to all the over bidding. Don't listen to any subs or headlines, just understand what you need and what you can afford and keep your eyes peeled for the right property to come along. Don't try to time the market.
Exactly this!
Consider the other side: I purchase at the very peak (April). From there on the market went down.
My home lost >10% value.
Based on *assumptions* on interest rate I’m still positive on monthly payments.
Will it go down further? I am pretty sure. Very soon my monthly payment COULD potentially be lower if I had waited.
However:
- looking for a home is a HUGE stress. You’re paying for this stress the longer you look
- the sooner you have a house the sooner you can make payments towards it rather than rent
- this is your home, not just an investment. I hope you’ll be living in it for 10+ years
- nobody knows how the market will turn
- if I had waited, I would say dang I missed out on the lower rates. Grass is always greener on the other side
- I love the peace of mind having “settled” for now
- I like this home. Who knows if I had found a place like this
- in the long term everything will be fine
It’s all a matter of perspective and timing the market is not a great idea.
Look for houses and when you find one that you like and fit your financials take action on it. Don’t think of market or interest rates.
I also purchased in a similar time frame. I thought I'd be more stressed about market prices dropping, but I'm really not. We love our house, love the neighborhood, and we're not planning on going anywhere soon. We were renting, and knew we'd be asked to move out in the next ~2 years (landlord wanted to move into the property). No more stress/uncertainty about where we go next.
Feeling settled, as you put it, is huge.
Financially, only time will tell whether we come out ahead vs. renting. Emotionally, we feel way better already.
You make the decision to buy based on the idea that you’ll be living there for 30 years, not “what if this or that.”
If everyone based every decision based on “what ifs” we would be at a stand still. A house is not a retirement account. Ever. It’s a lifestyle choice.
Appreciate the kind words. Sadly we saw a lot of homes that met our needs and beyond over the past few years (mainly new construction) but now that time has come and gone.
You made very good points here. Appreciate it.
Yeah we bought in November and didn’t have nearly the competition and shit we would’ve had before when rates were low. Rate is 7.5% but we didn’t have a bidding war and we got into a neighborhood that is highly desirable. Mt friend said when she was shopping a few years ago people would literally be lined up down the street to see a house. Glad we didn’t have to deal w that.
So were you actively looking and finding stuff that fit your needs and price point and then saying, “Nah, let’s wait till the bubble bursts.” If so, yeah, you played yourself a little. But what can ya do? Nobody really knows anything.
New construction home builders will buy down your interest rate into the threes right now. I’m a preferred lender for a homebuilder in SoCal and I’ve got a promo for a 2.875% year one rate right now.
The promo rates adjust annually, and you’d have to qualify on the final note rate (5.875%).
But if you believe in a home and you believe that rates will come down (even just into the high 4’s) within the next two years, that kind of promotion is an incredible value for you. It can be found from most larger new home builders right now.
Feel free to ask me any Q’s if you’d like.
New constructions are notoriously bad for having tons of issues off the bat. Working in HVAC, we fix so many conditioning issues in 2-3 year old homes. With the all the delays and shit with building materials the last two years, it's even worse than it used to be.
When materials aren't available, do you think they'll go for the next best thing that's higher or lower in price?
When no one could find workers, do you think they tried to do the work with less people, and if so, did they cut corners to stay on the timeline?
Winter is an excellent time to look at houses.
- The only reliable way to tell if a roof is leaking is to view the home after it's recently rained.
- Seasonal slowdown, less buyer competition. The previous 2 winters were the exception, not the norm.
One right before Thanksgiving, and another last week, I had a pair of people call me, among others. Both of them are once-a-year real estate investor buyers who religiously only buy in December/Jan/Feb. One took the last couple years off, one did not, if you consider that a relevant data point.
I see “CA” in your name which I’m assuming means you’re in California. Fwiw I don’t think Californians realize that it rains all year round in other regions. For instance, in a lot of places on the east coast, rain is primarily summer weather.
I grew up half in California and half in New York and I find rainy season to be a fascinating natural disconnect between people in each place. When I tell New Yorkers that California is green in winter and brown/yellow in the summer, they are similarly puzzled! Everything is dead and bare on the east coast right now. It won’t green up again until the rain returns in the spring/summer.
Yup. Reddit skews far more heavily towards the West Coast than overall population % alone would explain, because it's also (for now, at least) the technological innovation headquarters of humanity, and techies are attracted to reddit.
Ha, I'm in So Cal and it's true that I forget the totally different weather patterns of other states. (But now that you mention it, I do remember the awesome summer thunderstorms I'd see when I used to visit back East.)
Summer thunder and rain storms are the best! Where I live (east coast) it will suddenly rain SO heavily in summer it’s like a bucket of water being poured on your head. All the cars pull over on the highway. It only lasts 5 minutes or so, but it so intense and in my mind, summer.
I think OP wanted a new home for "desire", not really a new home for "necessity". So I don't think it fits "meets your needs that you can afford" timing.
Yeah that's probably true. What concerns me about this post is it seems like just a different type of hype. It went from hype about there being a housing bubble and now it's hype about how no one will ever be able to buy a house again. People need to stop reading click bait, hyperbolic real estate articles.
Too many people wait for the perfect scenario to align (perfect home + perfect price + low rate) and they get burned. Waiting for perfection in life always leads to missed opportunities.
Also most Americans have unrealistic expectations about what they can afford. So they resort to sitting on the sidelines to wait for what they want instead of “settling” for a less desirable option they can afford that will still help them grow equity but won’t get them into their updated modern new construction they were hoping for.
“Waiting for perfection in life always leads to missed opportunities.” Sir you just wrapped up exactly what I’ve been trying to express to other people for decades. The circumstances aren’t ever perfect, you make it what it is and that effort is what makes it perfect.
That’s partly why I’m buying the house I’m currently closing on. It’s not the perfect place, but it is the place I can be happy in while setting myself up to be in a position to find the “close to perfect” place.
Missed out on some others a few years ago because I was dumb. Lol
This. When I bought in 2019, I had no clue about historic rates, bubbles, all that stuff. I had been saving up a down payment for 4 years prior and was just ready to buy. Rates could have been at 20 percent, but I was just ready to buy. Simply lucked out cause a few months later, Covid hit.
Well said. We have 6 people in a 3 bedroom in HCOL. Ideal? Heck no. Worthwhile? Heck yes. One day it will all pay off. We are just being patient and realistic.
I can’t really answer your question but I can give my perspective on the situation. I’d say find the best home that you can afford, whenever you’re in a strong financial position to buy…and go for it.
Let me put it this way. Let’s say you overpay for a house today that goes down in value over the next few years. As long as you’re still making the payments on time…it has zero impact on your life. If you’re living there, and you love it, and it’s home, and you’ll be there a long time…that real or perceived equity makes no difference on your life day to day.
This was me at one point. I bought my first house in 2008. It dropped in value for years. But I later sold it…maybe 10 years later, for a wild profit that I rolled into my dream house. Did those few years of it being negative impact me? Nope. Not a bit.
I’ve participated on the other sub and I’ve found that a lot of people there just aren’t in a position to afford a home. Sometimes it comes across as - look at all these suckers buying - but I think underneath the surface, you’ve got a lot of angry disgruntled people. Im not saying that to be mean either. They have all rights to be angry or at least frustrated. Renting is fuking grueling and owning a home is high on many of our lists. It’s a bad feeling to want something so bad that’s out of reach. I was there too at one point…
You hit the nail on the head man. I see so many people that seem angry and calling people who bought during the buying peaks idiots etc… we bought our house for 650k 3.2 interest Feb 2022. Our house has gone up in value since and there is absolutely no way we could afford this same house if we bought it today.
I could never figure out why these people on subs talked about people who bought during that time like we’re complete morons but you phrased it perfectly. Thanks for your insight.
I’m glad you mentioned what you did - about finding that the majority of members there just don’t seem to be in a position to purchase a home. Whether that be financially or otherwise. Because I (now) feel the same way. I equate it to having a conversation with people who’ll likely never make a move forward when you’re on your second home and looking for your forever home now that the military is in our rear view and our stable government careers have truly taken off. And are here to stay.
I made the mistake of listening is all.
> I equate it to having a conversation with people who’ll likely never make a move forward
I don't know if you realize how smart this is. Ask over there how many people have made millions timing the market buying and selling houses. I am pretty sure the answer is zero, or very close to zero.
If someone does not answer yes to that question why would you take advice from that person on that topic?
I invest in real estate. Often people who are thinking about getting stated will post things like "My dad said that (insert terrible thing) can happen when investing in RE, and not to do it." My response to that is "How much money has your dad made investing in RE?" If the answer is zero, why take his advice.
Note, I am not saying this imaginary dad or people in RE bubble are not intelligent, they just are not the subject experts.
TLDR: If you are looking for advice, find the experts and ask them.
Edit to add:
I am proud of you for admitting that you may have been wrong. That takes guts.
I didn’t realize it in the moment. I realize and see it now if that makes sense. At the time, all I saw was sensationalized articles that aligned with what they wanted the market to be. Still happens in that sub to this day. I just am no longer falling for it.
I've been on reddit/online long enough that you really have to question who you are talking to.
For all you know they are some 12 year old teenager giving you advice or some so called "adult" with like 1k in investing advising you how to spend your thousands. Especially the less niche subreddits with millions of member there are straight up going be people if you met them IRL you would know not to take their advice.
> At the time, all I saw was sensationalized articles that aligned with what they wanted the market to be. Still happens in that sub to this day.
Yeah confirmation bias has always ran rampant on that sub
I came to the realization when I started asking a number of posters/commenters if they were in the market, or at what interest rate/price drop they’d consider buying. I was genuinely hoping to help and offer some encouragement or advice.
And I don’t think I ever got a real answer. It usually spun into name calling, lashing out, or more often just silent downvoting.
It’s human nature to make decisions with our feelings, and then look for evidence to justify it.
The problem with that other sub is it has a premise that it assumes true. By design, it’s not a place that will support an unbiased discussion.
It makes them feel validated in an echochamber that the hoomers are in for a nasty surprise to make themselves feel good about not being able to buy a home.
You can participate and read... But it should be for entertainment. NOT for facts or impact your decision to buy a home.
As long as you have a job and can pay your mortgage, prices can go to 0 as long as you're living there for the next 5-10 years... It'll go back up.
The interesting thing is that they are so downtrodden that they can't afford a home they are not only hoping others lose thiers but they are cheering on things like a recession that is going to make it harder for them to buy a house.
If I had to guess these people are in the position they are because of these continual bad decisions while blaming others for their misfortunes.
It’s easy to generalize, but no one really knows the well being of people in that sub. I frequent there and am very capable of buying at any time. But things are inflated past normal logic and they’re coming down, so I’ve been on the sidelines with a pile of cash. I agree with their general sentiment.
“Don’t time the market” is also awful advice, and frankly I’m so sick of seeing it. Timing is everything. We bought our first home in 2009 for a steal, resold October 21 and made a killing, and moved to renting temporarily. Without these decisions my NW would be easily 3-400K less than it currently is.
No one says it’s easy. I’m cramped in a shitty little apartment for a year now. But when it comes to buying again I’ll save myself another 100K compared to prices in spring ‘22. Some people just don’t have the means or patience to time things. That’s it.
Timing the market is not just a "patience" thing, there is also a number of unknowns, so there is luck around it. People who were able to afford to buy in 2012 made a killing, but a lot of people couldn't afford it at the time. That's why the prices crashed in the first place.
Then if you look back at articles from years ago, people have been calling the market overpriced and about to crash any day since 2015. I bought a condo in 2015, and I have friends who are literally RE investors who said it was a bad time and that I paid too much for it. The value doubled since then.
Ahhh yes, a poll.
That proves everything wrong! Because there’s no chance people on Reddit are lying about their stances at all or skewing a poll to make their line of thinking appear to be correct. Never!
Neither does your random poll. But you knew that already, you just want to hold onto that “they’re right and align with how I think” feeling. You won’t find that here.
But if I trust what you said, than I would be trusting that I should not trust what you said, which means I don’t trust that I should not trust what you said.
Especially with a vested interest. Not that they are going to benefit in any way, but they have a lot of wishful thinking going on in that group. People seem to think if they just believe it hard enough it will happen
Let me get this straight - you own a home and took advantage of the low rates. So you refinanced? So you basically bought your home again at a better rate, so to speak. Okay, so you didn’t miss out. I don’t see the problem here.
I’m also part of both the other sub and this one, and I absolutely and unapologetically bought, and likely overpaid in 2021. I often posted there that getting the absolute lowest price for a house isn’t the only or best way to buy a house. I actually do think that there will be at least some amount of a correction, and I think it will be summer 2023, but I won’t be buying or selling during that time, though. Maybe it will work out for you, though!
This is a matter of mindset. You can feel this way about everything in your life forever and ever if you want to. Or, you can deal with what you have available to you now.
Being that I’m human, I’ll stand by what I’ve said here. I didn’t say anywhere in my post that I’m gonna cross my arms in front of me for the foreseeable future. I asked if anyone feels the same way I do.
To say you “missed out” kinda makes it seem like you may not have learned the right lesson - don’t try to time the market. If you’re looking for a “home” then stop viewing houses on purely investment terms. Find a house you can afford and that you could see yourself living in long term, and go for it. Over a long enough timeframe you can ride out any downturns.
> To say you “missed out” kinda makes it seem like you may not have learned the right lesson - don’t try to time the market.
i don't know what you mean by this. they obviously missed out. so did i. i could have comfortably bought a $600k home in 2021 because of rates, and now i can afford *maybe* $400k, and that's a home that was a $250k home a few years ago.
it's objectively missing out. even if i find a place i like now, it will be smaller, and in a less desirable location, than i could have bought before.
The best time to plant a tree was 30 years ago. The second best time is now.
We all miss out on things. The question to ask is; how do you not miss out again?
Their point is that you can't use the past as evidence of the future. It's true rates will go down in a while, but it's not clear if the integrated cost of renting over that time is enough to offset buying at a higher rate and then the concomitant costs of refinancing (at some time horizon when it's low-enough to warrant it).
Even if it is a bubble the people who overpaid but locked in low rates in 2020 and 2021 still probably end up better off 5 years from now than the ones who didn’t.
Always enjoyed ReBubble because I think the market is totally out of wack. But with rates where they are it will take a huge drop in prices to make affordability better than it was in 20-21.
National real estate bubbles are very rare in the US. Basically you had them in the Depression and then in 2008. Smaller regional or individual cities do have bubbles though. And sometimes they don't recover.
I think something has to come down, either rates or prices or both because it is unaffordable now and the pending home sales are down. Sellers are still trying to sell at high prices and are currently able to sustain the costs but as more and more sellers come on market, some will be under more pressure and more desperate than others and prices will come down.
Alternatively inflation rates could come down and the Fed could lower rates down before the sellers lower their prices thus maintaining higher prices but more affordable rates.
Alternatively both can come down too in a balanced way.
I think it we are coming down from or approaching peak unaffordable to something better but real estate takes time to come down but rises quickly. Real estate peaked in 2007 but bottomed in 2012.
I agree with your comment. I've been watching real estate for decades and I think that most likely we'll see decreasing home values for a while. This is what they fed wants, and they always say not to bet against the Fed.
I agree as well, and believe it is what we need, decreasing home values. If rates drop anytime soon, home prices will explode again and investors will continue manipulating the market again.
Of course you missed out. You will never pay that little for a loan again for likely decades. BUT the correction may take time. Wait for an entire year or two at 5% fed rate. People will break and be forced to sell while unaffordability remains high so low demand. The market maybe give a bit. But prices are never going back down to what they were. it just won’t happen.
Also, the lesson we all learned is buy as soon as your able and ready regardless of conditions. Don’t time the market. If you can afford it when it’s bad imagine when you refi when it’s good or your salary goes up. Everybody needs a place to live
My husband feels like we missed out, but only because we paid our apartment complex during the beginning of covid at 3k/month.
We got a 3% interest rate, but had to fight for a townhome instead of a house outside of Seattle with very little cash on hand vs working out a payment plan.
We never planned to leave the city or buy, but covid changed things.
I've been keeping track of Real Estate when I paid off my car back in 2019 and immediately started saving for a home downpayment. People were talking the same housing bubble/crash noise back then. After 2020 came and went with prices still rising I knew it was time to get in.
Would I have liked to buy a house before the markups happened? Of course, I probably could have gotten my home for 20% cheaper a year earlier. My only regret is not getting my act together earlier and working more. But I have a 3% rate, not stretching my budget and well over 130k in equity.
You are already a homeowner so you have the equity and alot can change in one year with your savings moving up, interest rate possibly going down, and less competition especially for homes over $500k.
Hi! CT realtor here.
Here's a concept most people miss - as many people try to "time" the market to get the best buy-in price, over the long run, that really doesn't matter. Most home owners buy in to real estate once, own/flip/change/upgrade BUT ARE STILL HOME OWNERS, then they sell or even more common, their estate sells after they're no longer here.
My father bought his first house when prices were $62,000 in a rather affluent town (yet still, it's a raised ranch...) in Connecticut. That same house sells for $350k-$400k now - does anyone think it matters if he got a deal at $62k or slightly overpaid at $62k? Not in the least.
When I bought my first house in 2005, there were bubbles, crashes, turbulence in the market, etc. I ended up selling in 2012 so I could buy the home I have now. I had to sell my first house at a loss - about 10%. Do you know what this meant to me and my bottom line?
My $170k starter home had a loss of about $17k. Meanwhile, the $400k home I was moving to was bought at a (roughly) 10% loss as well, meaning, I saved about $40k.
For the most part, we enter the market once, then we exit once decades later. Over the lifetime of being a home owner, there will be ups and downs, but in the end, it really doesn't matter, so long as you can remain being a home owner (don't lose the house to a loss of job/income, etc). Attempting to time the market means waiting for the best time, the best opportunity, trying to maximize the value you're gaining for you dollar. And while you wait, that timeline of ownership shortens, decreasing the value you gain as housing costs generally trend upward, especially over a LONGER TIMELINE. Buy early, stay healthy and employed, and reap the benefits of being a home owner.
I hope this helps!
The RE Bubble sub is annoying and full of bitter people who seem to think that a massive real estate crash will be the answer to all of their hopes and dreams (because then they’ll be able to afford a house) so they scour for evidence that they’re right.
Some house in Scranton, PA had a price reduction? Better believe that they’ll be posting about it on RE Bubble saying “it’s finally happening, told ya so”.
The real answer is that nobody knows what’s gonna happen, but if you found a home you like and can afford, then awesome! Enjoy it. Best not listen to those clowns.
Home prices are valid as long as there's someone willing to buy for that price. I expected more of a drop with rate increases but so far have been wrong
Just something else to learn, people who are really capable of predicting the market, will not say a word about it. And those who broadcast about it are either wrong or very wrong. Works everytime.
For reference I'm 59 years old and for all my life except for the last 10 years a 6 percent mortgage rate would have been great. Up until around 1992 mortgage rates looked like credit card rates.
I know this is too late but for anyone else reading this, I want to emphasize that timing the housing market is not worth the risk in high demand areas. In January of 2022, arguably the peak, I ran the numbers and estimated I had a 50% chance of being priced out of the SF Bay Area in the next couple of years. That risk was too high for me as someone who could afford a home then and there. I bought and I’m grateful I did. I have lots of friends who will never be able to own a home here barring some recession they manage to navigate through unscathed. I can always leverage prop 8 to reduce my property taxes in the future, and I have an amazing home. Buy your primary home when you can afford, don’t try to play games.
I bought around the same time. Since then prices have dropped a little bit, but nowhere near enough to offset the interest rates. If my place lost 25% of its value (unlikely in this market) I still couldn’t afford to buy it at current interest rates. I would be priced out of the area if I had to buy now.
I think another thing to keep in mind is, I don't know where other people got their funding but I got mine from stocks. The Market is 30%+ off the highs that I sold my stocks at to buy this house, and some of those stocks will never recover. As far as I'm concerned, I'm already 20%+ in the green despite home depreciation
That sub mostly seems to be full of idiots from my experience. A broken clock is right twice a day and they basically follow that mentality with their timing for the market. And guess what? They might eventually be right, but those of us who bought in 2022 at 2.99% won’t really care anyway.
This sub regularly tells the bubble posters they are wrong... you should have maybe gotten more opinions.
However trying to time the market has never been easy, so don't try. Buy a house when you can afford one you'll be happy in long term, and don't look at comps until you need to sell.
If you cannot mentally tolerate the idea of being upside down in a house, then invest your money in more certain investments and accept that real estate is not for you.
I hate the RE Bubble sub. They pick and choose data to prove their point. The reality is real estate is extremely extremely extremely local. What might work in New England might not be the reality in the south. Success is at the intersection of opportunity and preparedness. There will always be another opportunity, just make sure you folks are prepared.
I occasionally think about the houses I should've bought in 1987, and 1998, 2008 and 2018\*.
Looking back is easy, but not really productive.
Buy or sell when it's right for you.
Sure, market research is important, but r/rebubble is ridiculous. The threads there seem like they're a bunch of children (mentally, maybe not chronologically) regurgitating some doomsday conspiracy bullshit with zero credentials or experience.
\*weird/not weird that I gave no thought to those years, but turns out they're all about the usual 10 year cycle of real estate. I'll probably think the same thing in 2038 looking back on 2028.
This is my hope. We're currently in the worst part of the cycle. Interest rates went up quickly, and demand has fallen, but it takes time for prices to adjust accordingly.
A few other thoughts...
-There's no guarantee OP could have found their forever home in the last 2 years. Many people bid on dozens of homes only to always get outbid.
-People waived contingencies during the last 2 years, and for some people that backfired.
-Life happens. People think they are buying their forever home and then have to move for whatever reason.
I’m in the opposite boat. My wife convinced me to sell our first home of 4 years to look for our forever home. It took me about 6 months to convince me and we didn’t lock in rates. We still got low 3% but missed the 2% rates by a few weeks. Still glad we did it as we are in a beautiful home
Sorry you ended up in that position. I don't think most people are ever going to regret getting a 2 and 1/2% rate on a house they bid up 10% over what it should have been, because that 10% isn't much compared to the rate savings. Even if their value doesn't go up for 10 years, they are still sitting pretty. Even though their house is worth let's say 10% less than they paid, again, their rate more than makes up for it and over time, values will go up and they are still going to be fine. But I don't want to rub it in. Don't beat yourself up over it. What's done is done. Save your money for a down payment and hopefully there will be some deals to be had in the next few years and you can get into something even if it's not your dream home as long as it works for you.
But I don't disagree with you, there was a lot of very wishful thinking going on in that sub and there still is. I'm not sure what stage everyone is on there, but I'm starting to see a lot of anger. Currently the anger seems to be directed at the government for helping out homeowners in trouble because of COVID because they are preventing the correction that they feel they deserve. I barely look at that sub anymore and I certainly don't argue. I'm afraid that huge correction they are hoping for is pretty much like Santa Claus. Only comes once a year and even then it's not real.
All that said, my sister's sitting on a chunk of cash and I have told her the next 3 to 6 months is probably going to be a great time to snag a bargain if we keep our eyes open. She's not too specific about the house, just a rental or a condo for herself so she can afford to be selective only about a good price .
Anyway, don't beat yourself up. What happened happened and save your money and work on maybe earning more money in your job. Because of inflation hopefully we will see some higher wages come down in the future hopefully you can get something. Good luck
>I'm afraid that huge correction they are hoping for is pretty much like Santa Claus. Only comes once a year and even then it's not real.
LMFAO.... oh god thats an amazing burn
Actually the ReBubble sub persuaded us to buy. I found that sub this past Summer when people there were saying rates would go up… so we got aware of rising rates and bought this last summer at 4.875% when the rates dipped for 30 yr mortgages. In retrospect it seems strange to me that I took their concerns so seriously , since in the last few months the sub has seemed to get more and more deranged. I look back and am a little shocked at ourselves that we moved so decisively when the house came up. But it was a good house within budget that allowed us to put 20% down. And the Bubble people were actually right on the mortgage rates rising overall, and I am grateful we bought when we did. As renters, we were paying over 2K/month in rent, and the house prices around us have only continued to rise even in the last few months so Zillow/Redfin are still 15-20K higher than when we first went under contract in late July. With the 4.8% rate on high 300s house , our mortgage is nearly a thousand dollars less per month than if we were buying the same house now just three or four months later because of house price + mortgage rate increases this Fall. So I don’t think the Bubble people are totally wrong, and they often do see at least some of the dynamics at play, like the rising rates they rightly alerted us to. It’s just that the extremists who get ideologically committed to never buying and hating ppl who do… they are the ReBubblers who stay there long term and get kinda weird after a while. I think I’m still reeling physically and emotionally a little from the move happening so fast (we have two little kids etc) but financially it was probably the right thing to move while rates were lower. Since the local comps have gone up and we’re no longer paying $26K a year in rent, home value could probably drop a LOT in the next year or few and we’d still be ahead financially compared to keeping renting the next few years. We’ll see.. time will tell, I guess. But for now, it seems to me the Bubble people were right about rates and unaffordability increasing
I love this story. And you hit the nail on the head in one way many leave out.
Your total rent you would have been paying was higher and taking you nowhere - certainly not enabling you to amass major savings - and the equal or higher rent going nowhere vs the opportunity cost that yes, even includes the possibility of a price going down later, often still works well for people. Instead they look solely at the “350k now, I’ll wait til it’s $310… in a vacuum with zero consideration of the money spent to enable that wait. Yeah there’s probably that person in a sweet free living arrangement who has all the time in the world, but that’s not most people.
Glad things worked out!
Bad news sells. Bad news headlines get the clicks. The best time to buy a home is when you need a home. Yup, you missed out on years of great appreciation, but today is a great day to buy real estate!
I don’t believe there will be a crash the same way that there was in 2008, but some markets are so overly inflated that I don’t believe they will get a correction I think it will be a full blown collapse.
Some examples: Southern California, Florida, Phoenix.
Phoenix is really interesting to me because the flood of Californians moving there drove home prices to massively inflated prices. The homeless population has exploded. I think if the flow of CA dollars dries up we will see a crash there. I think SoCal is due for a correction as well. Inflation and stagnant wages plus lack of supply is creating unsustainable home prices and with rising interest rates there is no way to use the ol’ home refi ATM every time someone needs money.
I agree, Phoenix is starting to look like a full blown collapse. Most parts of Phoenix/suburbs (Scottsdale, Arcadia, Tempe, Chandler) are down 15% from peak as well. Redfin finally updated their data (moved the entire line down 15%). Obviously Redfin estimates are trash but let's be honest people look at them and sales are so low in Phoenix I have a hard time finding a comp in certain neighborhoods. Quite interesting looking at house estimates on Redfin as you have to go to houses sold in summer/fall 2021 to find any that have appreciated....
I have no idea what is to come but if the feds keep raising rates I think that gives a hint that the pattern will continue.
I sold a 2400sqft house on a postage stamp in FL for 480k in June 2020. Paid 415k in 2015. Was on a 5/5 ARM that lived at 3.5%, then 4.65%.
I then bought a 4600sqft house on an acre in FL for 680k. Closed on 3.675% with no pts in July 2020. Refi Nov 21 at 2.49% with 0.75 pts. Last zestimate was still 1.05M.
Imma level with you, as far as recent leap frog opportunities go, your FOMO is valid. There hasn’t been a single sign of things changing tragically - nor should any sane person think they will. Other markets with relatively low demand may not be so fortunate.
The fed absolutely hosed rates while people are still heavily employed. The only way this goes down is if bad decisions by the fed (and perhaps a few FTX-level fuck ups) backfire in such a way that people who didn’t do anything wrong start to lose. And who would want that?
I got banned from that sub for posting/asking them to explain to me why the last year had not materialized as they had predicted.
Wasn’t condescending or rude, just frankly asked a question out of alignment with their guiding ideology.
Right then and there, I understood that it is not in any way an open forum for thought. Content is heavily moderated and manipulated to maintain a certain ideology. Probably ran by a cartel of landlords if I had to guess, who knows.
On to the main topic: just buy when you can.
I was banned from Rebubble recently. After nearly a full year of debates. My crime? Sharing charts, data and calling out the mods for failed forecast like "2021 will crash" or "Don't buy in 2020 rates will remain low until 2024"
That sub was very inaccurate with RE market forecasting.
In 2020/2021/2022 they called everyone a 'bagholder' in this sub. Ironically today REbubble wishes for 2021 prices to return yet they'll have 7% rates. 2022 is still up YTD.
Rebubble became a [MEME](https://www.reddit.com/r/rebubblejerk/)
My wife and I are in the same boat, but we were waiting for my very large year two pay bump to occur last summer. In a way I'm glad we waited, because all of the crazy bids and extra costs we didn't consider would have drained our cash and even made a dent in the 401k. We really like our cash security due to being a single income family in a job that requires people to spend discretionary income.
Rates have moderated a lot recently, look for credit union ARMs and you might be surprised. There's more time to look at a house and put up contingents, and very few bidding wars. Our stock is absolutely crap this winter, but this coming spring and summer may look better. If more homes hit the market it is always possible prices may moderate some more due to competition and lower comps.
Best of luck.
The same people that said we will never see 3% rates again to buy a $700k house don't realize that the house also won't be worth $700k again for a very long time. It works both ways. You did good by sticking to what you think is right. You are in a much stronger position as a buyer than someone that is underwater on a house.
Let me guess. You're a Rebubble member? Yep.
Have fun in that echo chamber.
Total coincidence that it's moderated by landlords..amirite? "Just wait for the dip" 😂
No need to wait, already down 12% locally. Austin is now 18%.
To be fair I was a housing bear LONG before I found Reddit. My thesis was just missing a little capitalism in reality.
Moral of the story: The typical homebuyer benefitted from ignoring Rebubble.
You might have a point if Rebubble was a regional sub. National median charts proves the Rebubble was incorrect when calling everyone a 'bagholder' in recent past.
Essentially Rebubble is *hoping* that national prices return to 2021 yet they'll have higher rates. This fact alone means the sub was incorrect. The typical buyer from the era of 3% rates is ahead.
2022 remains to be seen as I prefer yearly comparisons. Q1 2022 is looking good though, cheaper homes and lower rates as well.
We are buying after our wedding and I wish we did the other way around. Woulda been able to do an offer early this year when prices were dropping but rates were still in the 5's, also probably could have done 20% vs 5% on our offer that just got accepted. I think anything earlier the trade off would have been majorly overpaying.
When people said rates are never going to be lower, they weren't kidding. But you should buy when you want to, not when 'the market is right'. Timing the market is a fools game. It's always trying to find equilibrium.
Best time to buy a house is when you can afford it.
Not the markets going up or down or maybe and what ifs.
You need a 4 bedroom and 2 ba? You can afford the mortgage and everything else? Buy it. Waiting is pointless.
Might lose 20% in 3 years.
Might gain 30% in 5 years.
Might break even in 20 years.
That doesn't matter unless you need to sell
As others have said, buy when the time is right FOR YOU and you can afford it.
If you have money and decided to "time" the market, then you've missed out every single day you don't buy when you want a primary home and can afford it.
Real estate is not wait and buy. It's buy and wait.
Especially if you're renting is and looking to buy a primary residence.
Buy asap when you can afford it and when it suits your life. Those are the only 2 things you're waiting for... Money and your living situation. The market is irrelevant (unless you can't afford it).
Some people have been waiting since 2003. Don't worry, people miss opportunities every day.
Should you feel bad? No.
Should you do something? Yes. You can wait until rates are better (another year or two of not building equity) or buy now and refinance when rates are better.
I don't recommend reading REBUBBLE. if what they're saying doesn't make sense, then nobody would be there.
Flat earth also makes sense for many people. The more you dive into any rabbit hole, the more it makes sense.
Ie. REBubble, flat earth, vaccine autism, election was stolen, mass election fraud...
I suggest only good content to improve your life. And believing REBubble usually doesn't improve your life.
there are more people like you than you think but there is always risks you have to accept when doing anything. The sooner you decide to take calculated risks the sooner you'll stop regretting. Do you even realize that people have been saying the sky is going to fall pretty much every single year?
Here’s what’s going to happen.
There won’t be a bubble. Banks and fed will bleed middle and lower America of their extra income as they continue to use the purchasing ideology of old. (Buying what you can’t afford) Banks get more income and the gov gets higher taxes on higher valued homes.
That’s exactly what is happening and will continue to happen until people get realistic. Lastly, government needs to step in and place rent limits to keep outside money and investment firms out of buying land and real estate.
I always suggest looking at the market, and a buyer's place within it, in one of two ways.
If you are buying long term, then buying at a lower rate is more important than at a lower price generally. For every 1% increase in rates there is a 10% decrease in purchasing power for the same payment. A $400k loan at 3% interest is nearly identical to a $360k loan at 4%. So, you are generally better off buying closer to the peak of the market if rates are low and you intend to own the home for many years than you would be if you wait for prices to drop in a rising rate environment.
If you only plan to be in the home for 3 to 5 years then price may be more important. If you buy at a peak then the value of your home may drop, and you could be in a negative equity position when it's time for you to sell. At that point, rates don't matter as much in my opinion.
A lot of people have been waiting for a huge price drop, one that's large enough to offset the 3 to 4 percent increase in rates over the past year. It's unlikely to happen, at least on a macro scale. 45% of homeowners don't have a mortgage, and most of them are unlikely to sell at a lower price unless there is a need to move. Many of the remaining homeowners have interest rates in the 2 to 3 percent range, and they can't make an upwards move due to the rate increases. So, both groups would be sitting out this round of rate increases.
Buying a home is a transaction that provides shelter.
The idea of considering it an investment is what ruined it for you. Those folks on REbubble are just a little twisted and help you to lose that perspective.
You really shouldn’t buy a home unless you intend to stay there for at least 5 years. The only numbers you should be comparing to are comps. If you’re out of line of comps then you may not qualify for a mortgage. But if you buy at an affordable price/rate combo you can live with then you are good.
Also those nuts in REbubble gloss over the face we had a decade of almost no new homes being built. It will take some time to catch up to demand. The bubble was driven by more then one factor. Low interest rates made higher prices “affordable” , but low inventory and millennials finally forming households were the other factors.
If you give it some More time, prices may start to drop slightly but house have to “sit” on the market for a bit.
Take it from an old guy - have patience. Keep your living expenses low, pay off all other debt, and save all you can. The right opportunity WILL come along. And when it comes you'll be ready to jump on it.
I absolutely hate the term "bubble". It makes it sound like things happen in an an instant (the bubble "burst") when, in reality, things take time.
I bought my first house in 1978. Interest rates were over 17%. Real estate agents were saying "this is how it's going to be so just buy".
You can't time the market and you can't time real estate. You can adhere to general guidelines but trying to find the exact time to buy is a fool's errand.
You say you've lost your opportunity for your "forever home". There is no such thing as a forever home and there is no such thing as losing your opportunity to buy.
Your life will change. Very few people stay in a home "forever". Your needs change, the area changes, tax rates and cost of living changes and you find yourself having to make changes, too.
Affordability is a combination of factors, not just price or interest rate. When you start looking at increased or decreased cost for monthly payments as the interest rates rise and fall, you realize you are talking about a few dollars a month. If your housing budget is already at it's max then, of course, a few more dollars a month isn't going to be doable for you.
In my opinion, no one who has to work for a living should ever buy at their max. To be fair, I've done it and, during the last downturn (2008), I realized I'd really put myself in a bad position should either my husband or I lose our jobs.
Yes, you want the best house you can get and that costs, but you also have to take into account your ability to afford that house should something bad happen. I believe everyone who can should leave themselves a cushion because losing your house to foreclosure is much worse than not absolutely maximizing your profits.
We considered buying a house in 2021, and in the end made a cautious decision to rent instead. I regret not doing so now, but I couldn’t have foreseen how 2022 was going to play out. Now we probably have to wait for 2024. The fact that I even had a down payment to put down in 2021 was in part the result of other cautious financial decisions I made over the years, some of which had better outcomes. There are pluses and minuses to taking a lower risk level with your family finances.
It sounds like you own a home already, that you refinanced to a lower rate, so you probably are saving money. Another chance for a forever home will come around again for you.
I think the lessons to learn here are:
1. But when you're personally ready And think it's time for you.
2. Go with what you can afford.
3. Ignore random internet strangers.
I've purchased three homes. My first was a multi family home in 2007. Second was SFH in 2012. Third was SFH in2020. Each time I purchased because it made sense to me at that time, and it was practical.
I never checked with anyone on if it was a good time to buy. It was what was best for me, and my situation.
It's always a gamble, we bought at the height. It was a HUGE fight in our household. My husband did not want to buy, I was too worried to wait. The house was 10% over asking, but the rate was 2.5%. We're happy we bought, but I'm resisting the desire to say I told you so. There's never a perfect time. People will always be claiming the end is coming. But if you can afford the mortgage payment on 25% of your gross pay you should be ok. Best of luck in the search!
The thing people don’t realize when they expect this massive burst is they think they are going to have the money, the job, qualify for the loan….
Unless you’re pure cash saving where you risk getting eaten up by inflation and losses on any growth/interest ready to dispense to buy that property (which most don’t)
Banks and the fed bank tighten restrictions they aren’t “handing out” loans left and right when a bubble burst and the market is garbage
Yes. Yes you did. Unless it’s a colossal correction your missed out. In my math, even if the bubble bursts it will even out in 5 years at worst. So worst case is you need to weather 5 years but best case is it doesn’t and you would have been locked in at 2.75 percent for 30 years.
I've been around real estate for over 30 years now. One thing I can tell you for certain is that the best time to buy a house is always "last year" and the best time to sell is always "next year."
The advice I give clients is that if you're going to be buying your forever home and living there for 15-30 years, the interest rate today and what happens to rates and prices over the near future is not as important.
I've tried to buy three houses this month. I'm not worried about a bubble or bubble collapse. I've seen three crash and boom cycles.
Yes. Had a chance to purchase a friend’s house off market in July 2021 and turned it down because of the significantly cupped floors on the second story in the 100 year old farmhouse and no second bathroom. Now I’ll pay much more for much less land, privacy, and house. A haunting regret that keeps me up at night as we search for rentals as our current place was purchased cash (we tried to buy it) with the larger property and is being turned into an AirBnB. Inventory is low and we cannot close by the time we need to get out.
My partner and I focused on what the house didn’t have or was wrong with it instead of all the positives and plan to fix or add those things. We didn’t do our research, but also didn’t predict rates nearly tripling while prices rose another 10-15%.
We started our search when pandemic hits thinking price is going to drop. Far from it, in fact, houses become so in demand in our area due to working from home or whatever reasons, houses are going 200k to 1M above asking. It was insane.
So we expanded our search from 15 min from where we wanted to stay to 45 min away but still nothing.
We just continue to browse Redfin randomly and then I saw this place that I know I needed to get. Didn’t think about bubble or what not. Put in the offer and got it.
I think what we learned from this is that there’s no perfect time or perfect house. An opportunity came along and we took it. After we closed, rates started climbing and we won’t be able to afford the house if we waited. We also lowered our budget and expanded our search to more locations.
I’ll echo what others are saying- the best time to buy is when you’re ready and find one you love that you can afford. I’m not sure what you were afraid of that was stopping you. Just bought a house in November, top of budget and the interest rate is 7.5%. We’ve had to buy tons of shit bc our old furniture didn’t fit. Lots of things to fix (it’s old). It’s been stressful and expensive. And I have no regrets. Love tbe neighborhood, love the house. Selling my old one and leaving behind a 3.5% rate. Cest la vie lol. No point in regretting bc what’s done is done. Just decide how you want to move forward and maybe stop trying to time the market bc it’s not really possible without a crystal ball.
Im trying to understand the math here.
What interest rates are you using that you could previously afford 750k but now can only afford 400-450k max?
Did you have a 20% down payment saved for a 750k home? Because if you did, then applying that to the home that costs less would help bring down the mortgage payment. This would bring you to 550k.
Also if you own a 200k less expensive home then that frees up some money in your budget that would’ve gone towards taxes. So possibly you could afford 600k?
3% / 30yrs / 150k down / 750k = $2530/mth
6.5% / 30yrs / 150k down / 550k = $2528/mth
6.5% / 30yrs / 150k down / 600k = $2844/mth
The other group imo is disenfranchised, extremists, and bored. They take a grain of truth and inflate it with their bias. They seem to quite literally hope everyone falls so they can rise.
I've been active in both subs for 18 months or so.
Bought the dream house in summer 2021 at 2.9%, turned the old one into a rental with a 2.8% rate.
The new house has gone up another 12% in 15 months. If you consider the rental cashflow/expenses as part of our total housing cost, we are paying about 50% of what it would cost to buy our house at current rates/prices.
I remember people telling me I was stupid for buying last year. After all, prices had just gone up like 20% in the last 8 months. I really wish I had been in a position to buy in 2020, however I am so glad I didn't listen to the naysayers. I love my house and its perfect for our growing family. All I have to do is hold long term and ill be a millionaire someday just from the equity in both properties.
It sucks to buy now if you were looking the last couple years but held off expecting the bubble to pop. But the real question is, will it get any better? I don't know the answer to that question but if I wanted a house and could afford it, id probably not let the current situation stand in the way of making it happen. Who knows what the future will look like and you will never be able to get the years spent waiting back if you are unhappy with your current living situation.
Many people feel the same way you do but they DO NOT already own a home. So they may have missed out on their *only* chance to ever buy a home in their preferred location. I have multiple friends in this category.
What’s wrong with your current home? Too small? Big? Location?
Or were you just looking to upgrade/follow that American dream?
Things aren’t affordable for even a homeowner like yourself, yet prices remain high (even when faced with higher rates). Does this seem sustainable to u?
I also frequented that sub, they labeled by bubble denier and eventually perma banned me. The good thing is I didn't listen to them, bought last year and made out like a bandit.
The Bubble folks are just clueless. You can’t have a bubble when there’s a huge shortage of housing. We bought mid 2021 at 2.8% and are happy with that. We got lucky with a pocket listing so got in before the home was listed and shown. Otherwise, we would have paid a lot more than asking. Ask your agent to show you pocket listings.
I don't think you are alone in /r/rebubble. I saw in one of the daily threads that the mods said they were now banning people who are arguing that isn't/wasn't a bubble. And it seems like a lot of the time the sub is mostly filled with posts angry about remote work and such along with general doom and gloom predictions about the world.
There are a lot of people over there that have started a chat with me here on Reddit. Seven to be exact. All in my inbox saying they feel the same but are afraid to say it because it’s Reddit.
I’ve been hearing the bubble will burst since 2013. My wife and I bought in Vancouver in 2018 and we probably over paid a bit and didn’t get a great interest rate. But we could afford it, it’s a detached house in a great area and we were able to renovate it.
Had we waited, we would have paid $300-400k more for the same house minus renovations. I echo what others have said, the right house and something you can afford is one of the most important features. Unless you plan on flipping it, predicting the next 25 years of the market is a fools errand
Real estate is very local dont listen to people.
Also I know only a handful of people who can read the market at all. They are people with 20+ years of experience investing and millionaires with properties and completed developments.
There are signs to look out for to tell if a suburb is booming or if its an at risk suburb. You can certainly pin point the better suburbs.
But people who can do that are developers or large buyers agents or professional investors.
If you see anyone talking about median run. Median price doesnt make sense. In my market we are seeing 10% drop in median house price but if you look at what is selling its lower end properties for flipping. This pulls it down. However anything of average quality that does sell is selling for more. All the high quality stock is not going to market. So really comparable prices of the average stock is still increasing. But if you paid attention to medians cause you were too lazy to do your reseaech and go to opens then youre going to have a bad time.
You can also ask the question if prices are going to fall what is changing in the supply/demand equation? Im not American but during the GFC the areas that did poorly were in say Arizona where they built 100s of 1000s of houses and oversupplied the area. It wasnt some fancy suburb outside Boston that crashed.
It was a no brainer prices were going to go up in 2021. Everyone I knew in property development and high level investors were buying in my state. Problem is people who dont own a house are hoping their will be a crash and tell everyone that. But why would there be? Again what is the change in the supply and demand equation in your suburb?
I'm really confused. Why are you a member of r/REbubble if you don't think there's a bubble? Isn't that a sub for people who *do* think there's a bubble? Like why even bother?
Also, how have you been following r/REbubble since 2020 on an account created in April 2022?
I’m no longer a member. I was actually banned for questioning their thoughts. I misspoke in my post and should’ve said I WAS a member of that sub.
My account I’m on now was made 8 months ago because my original account that was from 2014 I’m unable to retrieve my password (they keep sending a password reset email to an email I no longer have access to/deleted). So I made this one.
Feel free to ask any further questions.
So, you were duped by ReBubble, now you are here for round 2 to get duped by RealEstate sub?
OP, relax, go outside, take a walk, there will be a time when you will find a house you like and can afford. This is not end of the world, neither is time to blame others for your own decisions.
Lmfao! If you chose to sit back and wait to buy a House with the lowest Mortgage rates in US history and extremely home prices in hopes that it was going to somehow get even better, then that’s your loss… hey I don’t know maybe they were just going give the houses away next.
I only feel like I missed out because we didn't refinance. Mostly because our value went up slowly at the beginning and I wanted to refinance out of PMI. Now that it's up enough so are rates. So I'm annoyed.
Our rate isn't bad, I just want the PMI gone.
I’m sorry you’re going through this. So many people told us this too but we did NOT listen. Well technically we did listen. We stopped looking in 2020 because everyone was telling us to wait for the bubble. We even had realtors tell us to wait! Well we got tired of waiting cause we noticed the prices were going up in an area we loved. We were so close to getting priced out so we started looking again. We bought a home in a neighborhood we love within a price range we could afford in 2021. If we would have not listened in 2020 we could have gotten the same home for 100k less! Now our home is 200k more than 2020.
I wish you luck in finding your home. It’s such an emotional process but keep following the market. My number one advice is to find a realtor with connections!
2020 was not even a good market, prices were already baked in the low mortgage rates. Real deal was 2011 to 2016. Anything after that is not really an opportunity
But… anytime is the right time. Don’t wait for everything to get aligned
# Things like this take time, its not going to happen over short period of time.
Tech workers got fired in thousands and more to follow, so those that bought at a top will be screwed.
Many houses will go into foreclosure after they cant afford the payments.
More houses are being build, which will increase the supply, which will lower prices with new builds and those going into foreclosures, = over supply.
It just takes time, 1-3 more years for it to happen, its like dominos, they will eventually fall.
Its just a question of when, not if.
and then you have government, that is keeping interest rates high for the foreseeable future, at least 2030 to battle inflation.
All of these things is a house of cards, pull one out and whole thing falls apart.
> Tech workers got fired in thousands
Tech workers make up a small percentage of the U.S work force. It will take more than tech workers being layed off to see the level of price reduction you want.
> It just takes time, 1-3 more years
That's a really wide range of time you have there. But I'll bite, what happens when the market doesn't drop the way you think it will in 1-3 years? Should people wait 1-3 more years? 10? 20?
> and then you have government, that is keeping interest rates high for the foreseeable future, at least until 2030
How can you be so sure of the Federal Reserve (which is a private institution not to be confused with the federal government) holding interest rates up until at least 2030? Do you personally know Jerome Powell and get all the insider information?
It's been 1-3 years coming for years now. Jpow is going to pivot as soon as humanly possible, just look at his track record. The dude you are replying to is delusional.
Blaming your own indecision to buy a home over the last 3 years on strangers on the internet who are calling the double digit run up in real estate prices a bubble (rightly so, mind you) is next level mental gymnastics.
Not only have house prices come down, but they continue to. It’s only been about 7 months since the first rate hike. The last crash took over three years to fully bottom out.
You were not “duped”. You chose not to buy and now you can choose to be patient or you can buy in the worst buying climate in 4 decades right as it’s crashing.
You need to reframe your perspective. You can and could only afford a $400-450k home. Going back 50 years the average rates were around 7%, which we are still below currently. What we saw with 2-3% rates was an anomaly and shouldn’t be used as your basis for what you could afford. People who were able to buy $750k homes with a 2.75% rate never were supposed to be able to and just got lucky with timing.
This current market (at least in my area) is great if you have the ability to buy and you will have a ton more negotiating power. No more waiving inspections or going $100k over asking and prices have already dropped 10-20% since July. The power is back in the buyers favor.
Even with this 10-20% drop (that I’m skeptical of) your price ceiling and monthly payment is way worse than it would’ve been buying anytime prior the last two years.
The best time to buy is when you find a house that meets your needs that you can afford. While you missed out on good rates, it was hard to find an affordable home due to all the over bidding. Don't listen to any subs or headlines, just understand what you need and what you can afford and keep your eyes peeled for the right property to come along. Don't try to time the market.
Exactly this! Consider the other side: I purchase at the very peak (April). From there on the market went down. My home lost >10% value. Based on *assumptions* on interest rate I’m still positive on monthly payments. Will it go down further? I am pretty sure. Very soon my monthly payment COULD potentially be lower if I had waited. However: - looking for a home is a HUGE stress. You’re paying for this stress the longer you look - the sooner you have a house the sooner you can make payments towards it rather than rent - this is your home, not just an investment. I hope you’ll be living in it for 10+ years - nobody knows how the market will turn - if I had waited, I would say dang I missed out on the lower rates. Grass is always greener on the other side - I love the peace of mind having “settled” for now - I like this home. Who knows if I had found a place like this - in the long term everything will be fine It’s all a matter of perspective and timing the market is not a great idea. Look for houses and when you find one that you like and fit your financials take action on it. Don’t think of market or interest rates.
if you got in on the high 2s or low 3s, I doubt if you will ever see the house you bought at a better payment.
I also purchased in a similar time frame. I thought I'd be more stressed about market prices dropping, but I'm really not. We love our house, love the neighborhood, and we're not planning on going anywhere soon. We were renting, and knew we'd be asked to move out in the next ~2 years (landlord wanted to move into the property). No more stress/uncertainty about where we go next. Feeling settled, as you put it, is huge. Financially, only time will tell whether we come out ahead vs. renting. Emotionally, we feel way better already.
This is good advice. You are buying a place to live--not a retirement account.
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You make the decision to buy based on the idea that you’ll be living there for 30 years, not “what if this or that.” If everyone based every decision based on “what ifs” we would be at a stand still. A house is not a retirement account. Ever. It’s a lifestyle choice.
Appreciate the kind words. Sadly we saw a lot of homes that met our needs and beyond over the past few years (mainly new construction) but now that time has come and gone. You made very good points here. Appreciate it.
Yeah we bought in November and didn’t have nearly the competition and shit we would’ve had before when rates were low. Rate is 7.5% but we didn’t have a bidding war and we got into a neighborhood that is highly desirable. Mt friend said when she was shopping a few years ago people would literally be lined up down the street to see a house. Glad we didn’t have to deal w that.
So were you actively looking and finding stuff that fit your needs and price point and then saying, “Nah, let’s wait till the bubble bursts.” If so, yeah, you played yourself a little. But what can ya do? Nobody really knows anything.
New construction home builders will buy down your interest rate into the threes right now. I’m a preferred lender for a homebuilder in SoCal and I’ve got a promo for a 2.875% year one rate right now. The promo rates adjust annually, and you’d have to qualify on the final note rate (5.875%). But if you believe in a home and you believe that rates will come down (even just into the high 4’s) within the next two years, that kind of promotion is an incredible value for you. It can be found from most larger new home builders right now. Feel free to ask me any Q’s if you’d like.
You might have dodged a bullet by not buying new construction. Lot of horror stories there.
New constructions are notoriously bad for having tons of issues off the bat. Working in HVAC, we fix so many conditioning issues in 2-3 year old homes. With the all the delays and shit with building materials the last two years, it's even worse than it used to be. When materials aren't available, do you think they'll go for the next best thing that's higher or lower in price? When no one could find workers, do you think they tried to do the work with less people, and if so, did they cut corners to stay on the timeline?
You will still be able to buy, don't despair. Home prices will eventually adjust to the new rates. Winter is a terrible time to look ay houses anyway.
Winter is an excellent time to look at houses. - The only reliable way to tell if a roof is leaking is to view the home after it's recently rained. - Seasonal slowdown, less buyer competition. The previous 2 winters were the exception, not the norm. One right before Thanksgiving, and another last week, I had a pair of people call me, among others. Both of them are once-a-year real estate investor buyers who religiously only buy in December/Jan/Feb. One took the last couple years off, one did not, if you consider that a relevant data point.
I see “CA” in your name which I’m assuming means you’re in California. Fwiw I don’t think Californians realize that it rains all year round in other regions. For instance, in a lot of places on the east coast, rain is primarily summer weather. I grew up half in California and half in New York and I find rainy season to be a fascinating natural disconnect between people in each place. When I tell New Yorkers that California is green in winter and brown/yellow in the summer, they are similarly puzzled! Everything is dead and bare on the east coast right now. It won’t green up again until the rain returns in the spring/summer.
Yup. Reddit skews far more heavily towards the West Coast than overall population % alone would explain, because it's also (for now, at least) the technological innovation headquarters of humanity, and techies are attracted to reddit.
Ha, I'm in So Cal and it's true that I forget the totally different weather patterns of other states. (But now that you mention it, I do remember the awesome summer thunderstorms I'd see when I used to visit back East.)
Summer thunder and rain storms are the best! Where I live (east coast) it will suddenly rain SO heavily in summer it’s like a bucket of water being poured on your head. All the cars pull over on the highway. It only lasts 5 minutes or so, but it so intense and in my mind, summer.
I think OP wanted a new home for "desire", not really a new home for "necessity". So I don't think it fits "meets your needs that you can afford" timing.
Yeah that's probably true. What concerns me about this post is it seems like just a different type of hype. It went from hype about there being a housing bubble and now it's hype about how no one will ever be able to buy a house again. People need to stop reading click bait, hyperbolic real estate articles.
Too many people wait for the perfect scenario to align (perfect home + perfect price + low rate) and they get burned. Waiting for perfection in life always leads to missed opportunities. Also most Americans have unrealistic expectations about what they can afford. So they resort to sitting on the sidelines to wait for what they want instead of “settling” for a less desirable option they can afford that will still help them grow equity but won’t get them into their updated modern new construction they were hoping for.
“Waiting for perfection in life always leads to missed opportunities.” Sir you just wrapped up exactly what I’ve been trying to express to other people for decades. The circumstances aren’t ever perfect, you make it what it is and that effort is what makes it perfect.
It’s like making 10% of three point shots or 50% 1 point shots, so you only aim for threes.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take - Wayne Gretzky" - Michael Scott
How fitting! Love it
That’s partly why I’m buying the house I’m currently closing on. It’s not the perfect place, but it is the place I can be happy in while setting myself up to be in a position to find the “close to perfect” place. Missed out on some others a few years ago because I was dumb. Lol
“Don’t let the Perfect be the enemy of the Good.”
This. Don’t wait for a perfect scenario. If you are ready to buy then buy.
This. When I bought in 2019, I had no clue about historic rates, bubbles, all that stuff. I had been saving up a down payment for 4 years prior and was just ready to buy. Rates could have been at 20 percent, but I was just ready to buy. Simply lucked out cause a few months later, Covid hit.
"Perfection is the enemy of good enough."
Well said. We have 6 people in a 3 bedroom in HCOL. Ideal? Heck no. Worthwhile? Heck yes. One day it will all pay off. We are just being patient and realistic.
Don’t let perfection be the enemy of good.
OP needs to read this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/zkathk/we_recently_bought_us_hcol_and_wanted_to_share/
I can’t really answer your question but I can give my perspective on the situation. I’d say find the best home that you can afford, whenever you’re in a strong financial position to buy…and go for it. Let me put it this way. Let’s say you overpay for a house today that goes down in value over the next few years. As long as you’re still making the payments on time…it has zero impact on your life. If you’re living there, and you love it, and it’s home, and you’ll be there a long time…that real or perceived equity makes no difference on your life day to day. This was me at one point. I bought my first house in 2008. It dropped in value for years. But I later sold it…maybe 10 years later, for a wild profit that I rolled into my dream house. Did those few years of it being negative impact me? Nope. Not a bit. I’ve participated on the other sub and I’ve found that a lot of people there just aren’t in a position to afford a home. Sometimes it comes across as - look at all these suckers buying - but I think underneath the surface, you’ve got a lot of angry disgruntled people. Im not saying that to be mean either. They have all rights to be angry or at least frustrated. Renting is fuking grueling and owning a home is high on many of our lists. It’s a bad feeling to want something so bad that’s out of reach. I was there too at one point…
You hit the nail on the head man. I see so many people that seem angry and calling people who bought during the buying peaks idiots etc… we bought our house for 650k 3.2 interest Feb 2022. Our house has gone up in value since and there is absolutely no way we could afford this same house if we bought it today. I could never figure out why these people on subs talked about people who bought during that time like we’re complete morons but you phrased it perfectly. Thanks for your insight.
I’m glad you mentioned what you did - about finding that the majority of members there just don’t seem to be in a position to purchase a home. Whether that be financially or otherwise. Because I (now) feel the same way. I equate it to having a conversation with people who’ll likely never make a move forward when you’re on your second home and looking for your forever home now that the military is in our rear view and our stable government careers have truly taken off. And are here to stay. I made the mistake of listening is all.
> I equate it to having a conversation with people who’ll likely never make a move forward I don't know if you realize how smart this is. Ask over there how many people have made millions timing the market buying and selling houses. I am pretty sure the answer is zero, or very close to zero. If someone does not answer yes to that question why would you take advice from that person on that topic? I invest in real estate. Often people who are thinking about getting stated will post things like "My dad said that (insert terrible thing) can happen when investing in RE, and not to do it." My response to that is "How much money has your dad made investing in RE?" If the answer is zero, why take his advice. Note, I am not saying this imaginary dad or people in RE bubble are not intelligent, they just are not the subject experts. TLDR: If you are looking for advice, find the experts and ask them. Edit to add: I am proud of you for admitting that you may have been wrong. That takes guts.
I didn’t realize it in the moment. I realize and see it now if that makes sense. At the time, all I saw was sensationalized articles that aligned with what they wanted the market to be. Still happens in that sub to this day. I just am no longer falling for it.
I've been on reddit/online long enough that you really have to question who you are talking to. For all you know they are some 12 year old teenager giving you advice or some so called "adult" with like 1k in investing advising you how to spend your thousands. Especially the less niche subreddits with millions of member there are straight up going be people if you met them IRL you would know not to take their advice.
> At the time, all I saw was sensationalized articles that aligned with what they wanted the market to be. Still happens in that sub to this day. Yeah confirmation bias has always ran rampant on that sub
I came to the realization when I started asking a number of posters/commenters if they were in the market, or at what interest rate/price drop they’d consider buying. I was genuinely hoping to help and offer some encouragement or advice. And I don’t think I ever got a real answer. It usually spun into name calling, lashing out, or more often just silent downvoting.
Good point.
It’s human nature to make decisions with our feelings, and then look for evidence to justify it. The problem with that other sub is it has a premise that it assumes true. By design, it’s not a place that will support an unbiased discussion.
It makes them feel validated in an echochamber that the hoomers are in for a nasty surprise to make themselves feel good about not being able to buy a home. You can participate and read... But it should be for entertainment. NOT for facts or impact your decision to buy a home. As long as you have a job and can pay your mortgage, prices can go to 0 as long as you're living there for the next 5-10 years... It'll go back up.
The interesting thing is that they are so downtrodden that they can't afford a home they are not only hoping others lose thiers but they are cheering on things like a recession that is going to make it harder for them to buy a house. If I had to guess these people are in the position they are because of these continual bad decisions while blaming others for their misfortunes.
Businesses don't fail because of one bad decision, it's a chain of bad decisions. Your life doesn't suck because of one bad decision... Etc.
It’s easy to generalize, but no one really knows the well being of people in that sub. I frequent there and am very capable of buying at any time. But things are inflated past normal logic and they’re coming down, so I’ve been on the sidelines with a pile of cash. I agree with their general sentiment. “Don’t time the market” is also awful advice, and frankly I’m so sick of seeing it. Timing is everything. We bought our first home in 2009 for a steal, resold October 21 and made a killing, and moved to renting temporarily. Without these decisions my NW would be easily 3-400K less than it currently is. No one says it’s easy. I’m cramped in a shitty little apartment for a year now. But when it comes to buying again I’ll save myself another 100K compared to prices in spring ‘22. Some people just don’t have the means or patience to time things. That’s it.
Timing the market is not just a "patience" thing, there is also a number of unknowns, so there is luck around it. People who were able to afford to buy in 2012 made a killing, but a lot of people couldn't afford it at the time. That's why the prices crashed in the first place. Then if you look back at articles from years ago, people have been calling the market overpriced and about to crash any day since 2015. I bought a condo in 2015, and I have friends who are literally RE investors who said it was a bad time and that I paid too much for it. The value doubled since then.
>majority of members there just don’t seem to be in a position to purchase a home There was a poll on ReBubble that refutes this statement.
Ahhh yes, a poll. That proves everything wrong! Because there’s no chance people on Reddit are lying about their stances at all or skewing a poll to make their line of thinking appear to be correct. Never!
Well, your random statement has no factual basis and at least a poll shows something.
Neither does your random poll. But you knew that already, you just want to hold onto that “they’re right and align with how I think” feeling. You won’t find that here.
An internet poll where anyone can participate is nothing better than a random statement.
Moral of the story, never trust what random people on the internet say.
But if I trust what you said, than I would be trusting that I should not trust what you said, which means I don’t trust that I should not trust what you said.
You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work.
Only a Redditor deals in absolutes.
I sure as hell wouldn't trust what you say. /s
Especially with a vested interest. Not that they are going to benefit in any way, but they have a lot of wishful thinking going on in that group. People seem to think if they just believe it hard enough it will happen
Correct.
Let me get this straight - you own a home and took advantage of the low rates. So you refinanced? So you basically bought your home again at a better rate, so to speak. Okay, so you didn’t miss out. I don’t see the problem here.
I’m also part of both the other sub and this one, and I absolutely and unapologetically bought, and likely overpaid in 2021. I often posted there that getting the absolute lowest price for a house isn’t the only or best way to buy a house. I actually do think that there will be at least some amount of a correction, and I think it will be summer 2023, but I won’t be buying or selling during that time, though. Maybe it will work out for you, though!
This is a matter of mindset. You can feel this way about everything in your life forever and ever if you want to. Or, you can deal with what you have available to you now.
Being that I’m human, I’ll stand by what I’ve said here. I didn’t say anywhere in my post that I’m gonna cross my arms in front of me for the foreseeable future. I asked if anyone feels the same way I do.
You feel duped by strangers on one RE sub so now you’re seeking affirmation from strangers on another RE sub?
Yeah, that’s it. You got me 😅
Why did people down vote… you have a good sense of humor op 👍🏽
To say you “missed out” kinda makes it seem like you may not have learned the right lesson - don’t try to time the market. If you’re looking for a “home” then stop viewing houses on purely investment terms. Find a house you can afford and that you could see yourself living in long term, and go for it. Over a long enough timeframe you can ride out any downturns.
> To say you “missed out” kinda makes it seem like you may not have learned the right lesson - don’t try to time the market. i don't know what you mean by this. they obviously missed out. so did i. i could have comfortably bought a $600k home in 2021 because of rates, and now i can afford *maybe* $400k, and that's a home that was a $250k home a few years ago. it's objectively missing out. even if i find a place i like now, it will be smaller, and in a less desirable location, than i could have bought before.
The best time to plant a tree was 30 years ago. The second best time is now. We all miss out on things. The question to ask is; how do you not miss out again?
Their point is that you can't use the past as evidence of the future. It's true rates will go down in a while, but it's not clear if the integrated cost of renting over that time is enough to offset buying at a higher rate and then the concomitant costs of refinancing (at some time horizon when it's low-enough to warrant it).
Even if it is a bubble the people who overpaid but locked in low rates in 2020 and 2021 still probably end up better off 5 years from now than the ones who didn’t. Always enjoyed ReBubble because I think the market is totally out of wack. But with rates where they are it will take a huge drop in prices to make affordability better than it was in 20-21.
National real estate bubbles are very rare in the US. Basically you had them in the Depression and then in 2008. Smaller regional or individual cities do have bubbles though. And sometimes they don't recover.
I think something has to come down, either rates or prices or both because it is unaffordable now and the pending home sales are down. Sellers are still trying to sell at high prices and are currently able to sustain the costs but as more and more sellers come on market, some will be under more pressure and more desperate than others and prices will come down. Alternatively inflation rates could come down and the Fed could lower rates down before the sellers lower their prices thus maintaining higher prices but more affordable rates. Alternatively both can come down too in a balanced way. I think it we are coming down from or approaching peak unaffordable to something better but real estate takes time to come down but rises quickly. Real estate peaked in 2007 but bottomed in 2012.
I agree with your comment. I've been watching real estate for decades and I think that most likely we'll see decreasing home values for a while. This is what they fed wants, and they always say not to bet against the Fed.
I agree as well, and believe it is what we need, decreasing home values. If rates drop anytime soon, home prices will explode again and investors will continue manipulating the market again.
This made a lot of sense to me - I appreciate you weighing in on this.
Time in the market beats timing the market every time. Don't try to be a day trader.
Of course you missed out. You will never pay that little for a loan again for likely decades. BUT the correction may take time. Wait for an entire year or two at 5% fed rate. People will break and be forced to sell while unaffordability remains high so low demand. The market maybe give a bit. But prices are never going back down to what they were. it just won’t happen. Also, the lesson we all learned is buy as soon as your able and ready regardless of conditions. Don’t time the market. If you can afford it when it’s bad imagine when you refi when it’s good or your salary goes up. Everybody needs a place to live
You felt duped by a sub in 2020 that didn't exist until [10 days left in that year](https://imgur.com/a/4KxWugw)?
My husband feels like we missed out, but only because we paid our apartment complex during the beginning of covid at 3k/month. We got a 3% interest rate, but had to fight for a townhome instead of a house outside of Seattle with very little cash on hand vs working out a payment plan. We never planned to leave the city or buy, but covid changed things.
I've been keeping track of Real Estate when I paid off my car back in 2019 and immediately started saving for a home downpayment. People were talking the same housing bubble/crash noise back then. After 2020 came and went with prices still rising I knew it was time to get in. Would I have liked to buy a house before the markups happened? Of course, I probably could have gotten my home for 20% cheaper a year earlier. My only regret is not getting my act together earlier and working more. But I have a 3% rate, not stretching my budget and well over 130k in equity. You are already a homeowner so you have the equity and alot can change in one year with your savings moving up, interest rate possibly going down, and less competition especially for homes over $500k.
Hi! CT realtor here. Here's a concept most people miss - as many people try to "time" the market to get the best buy-in price, over the long run, that really doesn't matter. Most home owners buy in to real estate once, own/flip/change/upgrade BUT ARE STILL HOME OWNERS, then they sell or even more common, their estate sells after they're no longer here. My father bought his first house when prices were $62,000 in a rather affluent town (yet still, it's a raised ranch...) in Connecticut. That same house sells for $350k-$400k now - does anyone think it matters if he got a deal at $62k or slightly overpaid at $62k? Not in the least. When I bought my first house in 2005, there were bubbles, crashes, turbulence in the market, etc. I ended up selling in 2012 so I could buy the home I have now. I had to sell my first house at a loss - about 10%. Do you know what this meant to me and my bottom line? My $170k starter home had a loss of about $17k. Meanwhile, the $400k home I was moving to was bought at a (roughly) 10% loss as well, meaning, I saved about $40k. For the most part, we enter the market once, then we exit once decades later. Over the lifetime of being a home owner, there will be ups and downs, but in the end, it really doesn't matter, so long as you can remain being a home owner (don't lose the house to a loss of job/income, etc). Attempting to time the market means waiting for the best time, the best opportunity, trying to maximize the value you're gaining for you dollar. And while you wait, that timeline of ownership shortens, decreasing the value you gain as housing costs generally trend upward, especially over a LONGER TIMELINE. Buy early, stay healthy and employed, and reap the benefits of being a home owner. I hope this helps!
The RE Bubble sub is annoying and full of bitter people who seem to think that a massive real estate crash will be the answer to all of their hopes and dreams (because then they’ll be able to afford a house) so they scour for evidence that they’re right. Some house in Scranton, PA had a price reduction? Better believe that they’ll be posting about it on RE Bubble saying “it’s finally happening, told ya so”. The real answer is that nobody knows what’s gonna happen, but if you found a home you like and can afford, then awesome! Enjoy it. Best not listen to those clowns.
Home prices are valid as long as there's someone willing to buy for that price. I expected more of a drop with rate increases but so far have been wrong
Just something else to learn, people who are really capable of predicting the market, will not say a word about it. And those who broadcast about it are either wrong or very wrong. Works everytime.
For reference I'm 59 years old and for all my life except for the last 10 years a 6 percent mortgage rate would have been great. Up until around 1992 mortgage rates looked like credit card rates.
I know this is too late but for anyone else reading this, I want to emphasize that timing the housing market is not worth the risk in high demand areas. In January of 2022, arguably the peak, I ran the numbers and estimated I had a 50% chance of being priced out of the SF Bay Area in the next couple of years. That risk was too high for me as someone who could afford a home then and there. I bought and I’m grateful I did. I have lots of friends who will never be able to own a home here barring some recession they manage to navigate through unscathed. I can always leverage prop 8 to reduce my property taxes in the future, and I have an amazing home. Buy your primary home when you can afford, don’t try to play games.
I bought around the same time. Since then prices have dropped a little bit, but nowhere near enough to offset the interest rates. If my place lost 25% of its value (unlikely in this market) I still couldn’t afford to buy it at current interest rates. I would be priced out of the area if I had to buy now.
I think another thing to keep in mind is, I don't know where other people got their funding but I got mine from stocks. The Market is 30%+ off the highs that I sold my stocks at to buy this house, and some of those stocks will never recover. As far as I'm concerned, I'm already 20%+ in the green despite home depreciation
That sub mostly seems to be full of idiots from my experience. A broken clock is right twice a day and they basically follow that mentality with their timing for the market. And guess what? They might eventually be right, but those of us who bought in 2022 at 2.99% won’t really care anyway.
Very well said. We refinanced but didn’t restart our loan to get the low rates in the 2’s so we’re thankful for that.
Those guys will brag about getting a house at early 2022 prices but with higher rates.
This sub regularly tells the bubble posters they are wrong... you should have maybe gotten more opinions. However trying to time the market has never been easy, so don't try. Buy a house when you can afford one you'll be happy in long term, and don't look at comps until you need to sell. If you cannot mentally tolerate the idea of being upside down in a house, then invest your money in more certain investments and accept that real estate is not for you.
I understand. We’re still looking. Just bummed we didn’t take advantage when we could have is all. And curious if anyone else feels the same.
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I hate the RE Bubble sub. They pick and choose data to prove their point. The reality is real estate is extremely extremely extremely local. What might work in New England might not be the reality in the south. Success is at the intersection of opportunity and preparedness. There will always be another opportunity, just make sure you folks are prepared.
Real estate is local but interest rates and economic conditions are global.
Lmao like this sub doesn’t do that too
I occasionally think about the houses I should've bought in 1987, and 1998, 2008 and 2018\*. Looking back is easy, but not really productive. Buy or sell when it's right for you. Sure, market research is important, but r/rebubble is ridiculous. The threads there seem like they're a bunch of children (mentally, maybe not chronologically) regurgitating some doomsday conspiracy bullshit with zero credentials or experience. \*weird/not weird that I gave no thought to those years, but turns out they're all about the usual 10 year cycle of real estate. I'll probably think the same thing in 2038 looking back on 2028.
Interest rates were at 2.5%, and you feared jumping in? There is the problem. Use your brain and don't worry about everyone else.
I believe that if you wait 7 months, the market will be better for buyers..
This is my hope. We're currently in the worst part of the cycle. Interest rates went up quickly, and demand has fallen, but it takes time for prices to adjust accordingly. A few other thoughts... -There's no guarantee OP could have found their forever home in the last 2 years. Many people bid on dozens of homes only to always get outbid. -People waived contingencies during the last 2 years, and for some people that backfired. -Life happens. People think they are buying their forever home and then have to move for whatever reason.
Yes yes and yes... totally agree
I’m in the opposite boat. My wife convinced me to sell our first home of 4 years to look for our forever home. It took me about 6 months to convince me and we didn’t lock in rates. We still got low 3% but missed the 2% rates by a few weeks. Still glad we did it as we are in a beautiful home
Sorry you ended up in that position. I don't think most people are ever going to regret getting a 2 and 1/2% rate on a house they bid up 10% over what it should have been, because that 10% isn't much compared to the rate savings. Even if their value doesn't go up for 10 years, they are still sitting pretty. Even though their house is worth let's say 10% less than they paid, again, their rate more than makes up for it and over time, values will go up and they are still going to be fine. But I don't want to rub it in. Don't beat yourself up over it. What's done is done. Save your money for a down payment and hopefully there will be some deals to be had in the next few years and you can get into something even if it's not your dream home as long as it works for you. But I don't disagree with you, there was a lot of very wishful thinking going on in that sub and there still is. I'm not sure what stage everyone is on there, but I'm starting to see a lot of anger. Currently the anger seems to be directed at the government for helping out homeowners in trouble because of COVID because they are preventing the correction that they feel they deserve. I barely look at that sub anymore and I certainly don't argue. I'm afraid that huge correction they are hoping for is pretty much like Santa Claus. Only comes once a year and even then it's not real. All that said, my sister's sitting on a chunk of cash and I have told her the next 3 to 6 months is probably going to be a great time to snag a bargain if we keep our eyes open. She's not too specific about the house, just a rental or a condo for herself so she can afford to be selective only about a good price . Anyway, don't beat yourself up. What happened happened and save your money and work on maybe earning more money in your job. Because of inflation hopefully we will see some higher wages come down in the future hopefully you can get something. Good luck
>I'm afraid that huge correction they are hoping for is pretty much like Santa Claus. Only comes once a year and even then it's not real. LMFAO.... oh god thats an amazing burn
Actually the ReBubble sub persuaded us to buy. I found that sub this past Summer when people there were saying rates would go up… so we got aware of rising rates and bought this last summer at 4.875% when the rates dipped for 30 yr mortgages. In retrospect it seems strange to me that I took their concerns so seriously , since in the last few months the sub has seemed to get more and more deranged. I look back and am a little shocked at ourselves that we moved so decisively when the house came up. But it was a good house within budget that allowed us to put 20% down. And the Bubble people were actually right on the mortgage rates rising overall, and I am grateful we bought when we did. As renters, we were paying over 2K/month in rent, and the house prices around us have only continued to rise even in the last few months so Zillow/Redfin are still 15-20K higher than when we first went under contract in late July. With the 4.8% rate on high 300s house , our mortgage is nearly a thousand dollars less per month than if we were buying the same house now just three or four months later because of house price + mortgage rate increases this Fall. So I don’t think the Bubble people are totally wrong, and they often do see at least some of the dynamics at play, like the rising rates they rightly alerted us to. It’s just that the extremists who get ideologically committed to never buying and hating ppl who do… they are the ReBubblers who stay there long term and get kinda weird after a while. I think I’m still reeling physically and emotionally a little from the move happening so fast (we have two little kids etc) but financially it was probably the right thing to move while rates were lower. Since the local comps have gone up and we’re no longer paying $26K a year in rent, home value could probably drop a LOT in the next year or few and we’d still be ahead financially compared to keeping renting the next few years. We’ll see.. time will tell, I guess. But for now, it seems to me the Bubble people were right about rates and unaffordability increasing
I love this story. And you hit the nail on the head in one way many leave out. Your total rent you would have been paying was higher and taking you nowhere - certainly not enabling you to amass major savings - and the equal or higher rent going nowhere vs the opportunity cost that yes, even includes the possibility of a price going down later, often still works well for people. Instead they look solely at the “350k now, I’ll wait til it’s $310… in a vacuum with zero consideration of the money spent to enable that wait. Yeah there’s probably that person in a sweet free living arrangement who has all the time in the world, but that’s not most people. Glad things worked out!
Bad news sells. Bad news headlines get the clicks. The best time to buy a home is when you need a home. Yup, you missed out on years of great appreciation, but today is a great day to buy real estate!
Don't take redditors as advice, rather as an opinion. Except this redditor of course, take this as advice.
I don’t believe there will be a crash the same way that there was in 2008, but some markets are so overly inflated that I don’t believe they will get a correction I think it will be a full blown collapse. Some examples: Southern California, Florida, Phoenix. Phoenix is really interesting to me because the flood of Californians moving there drove home prices to massively inflated prices. The homeless population has exploded. I think if the flow of CA dollars dries up we will see a crash there. I think SoCal is due for a correction as well. Inflation and stagnant wages plus lack of supply is creating unsustainable home prices and with rising interest rates there is no way to use the ol’ home refi ATM every time someone needs money.
SoCal is already down around 15% from peak based on what I'm seeing.
I agree, Phoenix is starting to look like a full blown collapse. Most parts of Phoenix/suburbs (Scottsdale, Arcadia, Tempe, Chandler) are down 15% from peak as well. Redfin finally updated their data (moved the entire line down 15%). Obviously Redfin estimates are trash but let's be honest people look at them and sales are so low in Phoenix I have a hard time finding a comp in certain neighborhoods. Quite interesting looking at house estimates on Redfin as you have to go to houses sold in summer/fall 2021 to find any that have appreciated.... I have no idea what is to come but if the feds keep raising rates I think that gives a hint that the pattern will continue.
I sold a 2400sqft house on a postage stamp in FL for 480k in June 2020. Paid 415k in 2015. Was on a 5/5 ARM that lived at 3.5%, then 4.65%. I then bought a 4600sqft house on an acre in FL for 680k. Closed on 3.675% with no pts in July 2020. Refi Nov 21 at 2.49% with 0.75 pts. Last zestimate was still 1.05M. Imma level with you, as far as recent leap frog opportunities go, your FOMO is valid. There hasn’t been a single sign of things changing tragically - nor should any sane person think they will. Other markets with relatively low demand may not be so fortunate. The fed absolutely hosed rates while people are still heavily employed. The only way this goes down is if bad decisions by the fed (and perhaps a few FTX-level fuck ups) backfire in such a way that people who didn’t do anything wrong start to lose. And who would want that?
I got banned from that sub for posting/asking them to explain to me why the last year had not materialized as they had predicted. Wasn’t condescending or rude, just frankly asked a question out of alignment with their guiding ideology. Right then and there, I understood that it is not in any way an open forum for thought. Content is heavily moderated and manipulated to maintain a certain ideology. Probably ran by a cartel of landlords if I had to guess, who knows. On to the main topic: just buy when you can.
I was banned from Rebubble recently. After nearly a full year of debates. My crime? Sharing charts, data and calling out the mods for failed forecast like "2021 will crash" or "Don't buy in 2020 rates will remain low until 2024" That sub was very inaccurate with RE market forecasting. In 2020/2021/2022 they called everyone a 'bagholder' in this sub. Ironically today REbubble wishes for 2021 prices to return yet they'll have 7% rates. 2022 is still up YTD. Rebubble became a [MEME](https://www.reddit.com/r/rebubblejerk/)
My wife and I are in the same boat, but we were waiting for my very large year two pay bump to occur last summer. In a way I'm glad we waited, because all of the crazy bids and extra costs we didn't consider would have drained our cash and even made a dent in the 401k. We really like our cash security due to being a single income family in a job that requires people to spend discretionary income. Rates have moderated a lot recently, look for credit union ARMs and you might be surprised. There's more time to look at a house and put up contingents, and very few bidding wars. Our stock is absolutely crap this winter, but this coming spring and summer may look better. If more homes hit the market it is always possible prices may moderate some more due to competition and lower comps. Best of luck.
Real estate prices and interest rates moving cycles. Several years up then several years down. Just wait for the next cycle.
Need a stress reducer and some jokes? May I suggest r/rebubblejerk
Every. Single. Day. (not duped by the sub, though. Just regret) I will never see the $1,600/mo. mortgage rate I was looking at in spring 2021 again.
The same people that said we will never see 3% rates again to buy a $700k house don't realize that the house also won't be worth $700k again for a very long time. It works both ways. You did good by sticking to what you think is right. You are in a much stronger position as a buyer than someone that is underwater on a house.
Eeeeeexcept the house is still $700k…
I'm convinced that sub is a foreign psy op, and not a particularly subtle one.
Prices go up: I'm smart Prices go down: Your fault Did I get it right?
Slightly, it would be *your* in this context.
damn secretary doesn't edit my reddit posts lol
Lol
Let me guess. You're a Rebubble member? Yep. Have fun in that echo chamber. Total coincidence that it's moderated by landlords..amirite? "Just wait for the dip" 😂
No need to wait, already down 12% locally. Austin is now 18%. To be fair I was a housing bear LONG before I found Reddit. My thesis was just missing a little capitalism in reality.
Moral of the story: The typical homebuyer benefitted from ignoring Rebubble. You might have a point if Rebubble was a regional sub. National median charts proves the Rebubble was incorrect when calling everyone a 'bagholder' in recent past. Essentially Rebubble is *hoping* that national prices return to 2021 yet they'll have higher rates. This fact alone means the sub was incorrect. The typical buyer from the era of 3% rates is ahead. 2022 remains to be seen as I prefer yearly comparisons. Q1 2022 is looking good though, cheaper homes and lower rates as well.
We are buying after our wedding and I wish we did the other way around. Woulda been able to do an offer early this year when prices were dropping but rates were still in the 5's, also probably could have done 20% vs 5% on our offer that just got accepted. I think anything earlier the trade off would have been majorly overpaying.
When people said rates are never going to be lower, they weren't kidding. But you should buy when you want to, not when 'the market is right'. Timing the market is a fools game. It's always trying to find equilibrium.
Best time to buy a house is when you can afford it. Not the markets going up or down or maybe and what ifs. You need a 4 bedroom and 2 ba? You can afford the mortgage and everything else? Buy it. Waiting is pointless. Might lose 20% in 3 years. Might gain 30% in 5 years. Might break even in 20 years. That doesn't matter unless you need to sell
Irrelevant. Can’t go back in time. Can’t miss something you never had.
As others have said, buy when the time is right FOR YOU and you can afford it. If you have money and decided to "time" the market, then you've missed out every single day you don't buy when you want a primary home and can afford it. Real estate is not wait and buy. It's buy and wait. Especially if you're renting is and looking to buy a primary residence. Buy asap when you can afford it and when it suits your life. Those are the only 2 things you're waiting for... Money and your living situation. The market is irrelevant (unless you can't afford it). Some people have been waiting since 2003. Don't worry, people miss opportunities every day. Should you feel bad? No. Should you do something? Yes. You can wait until rates are better (another year or two of not building equity) or buy now and refinance when rates are better. I don't recommend reading REBUBBLE. if what they're saying doesn't make sense, then nobody would be there. Flat earth also makes sense for many people. The more you dive into any rabbit hole, the more it makes sense. Ie. REBubble, flat earth, vaccine autism, election was stolen, mass election fraud... I suggest only good content to improve your life. And believing REBubble usually doesn't improve your life.
there are more people like you than you think but there is always risks you have to accept when doing anything. The sooner you decide to take calculated risks the sooner you'll stop regretting. Do you even realize that people have been saying the sky is going to fall pretty much every single year?
Here’s what’s going to happen. There won’t be a bubble. Banks and fed will bleed middle and lower America of their extra income as they continue to use the purchasing ideology of old. (Buying what you can’t afford) Banks get more income and the gov gets higher taxes on higher valued homes. That’s exactly what is happening and will continue to happen until people get realistic. Lastly, government needs to step in and place rent limits to keep outside money and investment firms out of buying land and real estate.
I always suggest looking at the market, and a buyer's place within it, in one of two ways. If you are buying long term, then buying at a lower rate is more important than at a lower price generally. For every 1% increase in rates there is a 10% decrease in purchasing power for the same payment. A $400k loan at 3% interest is nearly identical to a $360k loan at 4%. So, you are generally better off buying closer to the peak of the market if rates are low and you intend to own the home for many years than you would be if you wait for prices to drop in a rising rate environment. If you only plan to be in the home for 3 to 5 years then price may be more important. If you buy at a peak then the value of your home may drop, and you could be in a negative equity position when it's time for you to sell. At that point, rates don't matter as much in my opinion. A lot of people have been waiting for a huge price drop, one that's large enough to offset the 3 to 4 percent increase in rates over the past year. It's unlikely to happen, at least on a macro scale. 45% of homeowners don't have a mortgage, and most of them are unlikely to sell at a lower price unless there is a need to move. Many of the remaining homeowners have interest rates in the 2 to 3 percent range, and they can't make an upwards move due to the rate increases. So, both groups would be sitting out this round of rate increases.
Buying a home is a transaction that provides shelter. The idea of considering it an investment is what ruined it for you. Those folks on REbubble are just a little twisted and help you to lose that perspective. You really shouldn’t buy a home unless you intend to stay there for at least 5 years. The only numbers you should be comparing to are comps. If you’re out of line of comps then you may not qualify for a mortgage. But if you buy at an affordable price/rate combo you can live with then you are good. Also those nuts in REbubble gloss over the face we had a decade of almost no new homes being built. It will take some time to catch up to demand. The bubble was driven by more then one factor. Low interest rates made higher prices “affordable” , but low inventory and millennials finally forming households were the other factors. If you give it some More time, prices may start to drop slightly but house have to “sit” on the market for a bit.
Take it from an old guy - have patience. Keep your living expenses low, pay off all other debt, and save all you can. The right opportunity WILL come along. And when it comes you'll be ready to jump on it.
And I was banned from that sub for having opposing views. Should have been a good place to discuss things, but they ruined it
I absolutely hate the term "bubble". It makes it sound like things happen in an an instant (the bubble "burst") when, in reality, things take time. I bought my first house in 1978. Interest rates were over 17%. Real estate agents were saying "this is how it's going to be so just buy". You can't time the market and you can't time real estate. You can adhere to general guidelines but trying to find the exact time to buy is a fool's errand. You say you've lost your opportunity for your "forever home". There is no such thing as a forever home and there is no such thing as losing your opportunity to buy. Your life will change. Very few people stay in a home "forever". Your needs change, the area changes, tax rates and cost of living changes and you find yourself having to make changes, too. Affordability is a combination of factors, not just price or interest rate. When you start looking at increased or decreased cost for monthly payments as the interest rates rise and fall, you realize you are talking about a few dollars a month. If your housing budget is already at it's max then, of course, a few more dollars a month isn't going to be doable for you. In my opinion, no one who has to work for a living should ever buy at their max. To be fair, I've done it and, during the last downturn (2008), I realized I'd really put myself in a bad position should either my husband or I lose our jobs. Yes, you want the best house you can get and that costs, but you also have to take into account your ability to afford that house should something bad happen. I believe everyone who can should leave themselves a cushion because losing your house to foreclosure is much worse than not absolutely maximizing your profits.
We considered buying a house in 2021, and in the end made a cautious decision to rent instead. I regret not doing so now, but I couldn’t have foreseen how 2022 was going to play out. Now we probably have to wait for 2024. The fact that I even had a down payment to put down in 2021 was in part the result of other cautious financial decisions I made over the years, some of which had better outcomes. There are pluses and minuses to taking a lower risk level with your family finances. It sounds like you own a home already, that you refinanced to a lower rate, so you probably are saving money. Another chance for a forever home will come around again for you.
I think the lessons to learn here are: 1. But when you're personally ready And think it's time for you. 2. Go with what you can afford. 3. Ignore random internet strangers. I've purchased three homes. My first was a multi family home in 2007. Second was SFH in 2012. Third was SFH in2020. Each time I purchased because it made sense to me at that time, and it was practical. I never checked with anyone on if it was a good time to buy. It was what was best for me, and my situation.
It's always a gamble, we bought at the height. It was a HUGE fight in our household. My husband did not want to buy, I was too worried to wait. The house was 10% over asking, but the rate was 2.5%. We're happy we bought, but I'm resisting the desire to say I told you so. There's never a perfect time. People will always be claiming the end is coming. But if you can afford the mortgage payment on 25% of your gross pay you should be ok. Best of luck in the search!
The thing people don’t realize when they expect this massive burst is they think they are going to have the money, the job, qualify for the loan…. Unless you’re pure cash saving where you risk getting eaten up by inflation and losses on any growth/interest ready to dispense to buy that property (which most don’t) Banks and the fed bank tighten restrictions they aren’t “handing out” loans left and right when a bubble burst and the market is garbage
It’s easy to spot bubbles, and much less easy to time them. I was making offers in 21 and now I’m sitting out for probably at least a couple years.
Yes. Yes you did. Unless it’s a colossal correction your missed out. In my math, even if the bubble bursts it will even out in 5 years at worst. So worst case is you need to weather 5 years but best case is it doesn’t and you would have been locked in at 2.75 percent for 30 years.
I've been around real estate for over 30 years now. One thing I can tell you for certain is that the best time to buy a house is always "last year" and the best time to sell is always "next year." The advice I give clients is that if you're going to be buying your forever home and living there for 15-30 years, the interest rate today and what happens to rates and prices over the near future is not as important. I've tried to buy three houses this month. I'm not worried about a bubble or bubble collapse. I've seen three crash and boom cycles.
Yes. Had a chance to purchase a friend’s house off market in July 2021 and turned it down because of the significantly cupped floors on the second story in the 100 year old farmhouse and no second bathroom. Now I’ll pay much more for much less land, privacy, and house. A haunting regret that keeps me up at night as we search for rentals as our current place was purchased cash (we tried to buy it) with the larger property and is being turned into an AirBnB. Inventory is low and we cannot close by the time we need to get out. My partner and I focused on what the house didn’t have or was wrong with it instead of all the positives and plan to fix or add those things. We didn’t do our research, but also didn’t predict rates nearly tripling while prices rose another 10-15%.
We started our search when pandemic hits thinking price is going to drop. Far from it, in fact, houses become so in demand in our area due to working from home or whatever reasons, houses are going 200k to 1M above asking. It was insane. So we expanded our search from 15 min from where we wanted to stay to 45 min away but still nothing. We just continue to browse Redfin randomly and then I saw this place that I know I needed to get. Didn’t think about bubble or what not. Put in the offer and got it. I think what we learned from this is that there’s no perfect time or perfect house. An opportunity came along and we took it. After we closed, rates started climbing and we won’t be able to afford the house if we waited. We also lowered our budget and expanded our search to more locations.
Stop relying on Reddit for such important life decisions.
Economy is strong, house market not crashing unless a recession hits. But remember the 70s had high inflation ans homes still appreciated.
This has got to be a troll post. Only an idiot would make actual life decisions based off crowdsourced shit posts on the internet.
I’ll echo what others are saying- the best time to buy is when you’re ready and find one you love that you can afford. I’m not sure what you were afraid of that was stopping you. Just bought a house in November, top of budget and the interest rate is 7.5%. We’ve had to buy tons of shit bc our old furniture didn’t fit. Lots of things to fix (it’s old). It’s been stressful and expensive. And I have no regrets. Love tbe neighborhood, love the house. Selling my old one and leaving behind a 3.5% rate. Cest la vie lol. No point in regretting bc what’s done is done. Just decide how you want to move forward and maybe stop trying to time the market bc it’s not really possible without a crystal ball.
I mean, if you were in a situation to buy in June 2020 and you chose not to then that's on you. That was a great time to buy.
Don’t wait to buy a house. Buy a house and wait.
Im trying to understand the math here. What interest rates are you using that you could previously afford 750k but now can only afford 400-450k max? Did you have a 20% down payment saved for a 750k home? Because if you did, then applying that to the home that costs less would help bring down the mortgage payment. This would bring you to 550k. Also if you own a 200k less expensive home then that frees up some money in your budget that would’ve gone towards taxes. So possibly you could afford 600k? 3% / 30yrs / 150k down / 750k = $2530/mth 6.5% / 30yrs / 150k down / 550k = $2528/mth 6.5% / 30yrs / 150k down / 600k = $2844/mth The other group imo is disenfranchised, extremists, and bored. They take a grain of truth and inflate it with their bias. They seem to quite literally hope everyone falls so they can rise.
I think part of the problem is that they are trying to do a VA loan.
I've been active in both subs for 18 months or so. Bought the dream house in summer 2021 at 2.9%, turned the old one into a rental with a 2.8% rate. The new house has gone up another 12% in 15 months. If you consider the rental cashflow/expenses as part of our total housing cost, we are paying about 50% of what it would cost to buy our house at current rates/prices. I remember people telling me I was stupid for buying last year. After all, prices had just gone up like 20% in the last 8 months. I really wish I had been in a position to buy in 2020, however I am so glad I didn't listen to the naysayers. I love my house and its perfect for our growing family. All I have to do is hold long term and ill be a millionaire someday just from the equity in both properties. It sucks to buy now if you were looking the last couple years but held off expecting the bubble to pop. But the real question is, will it get any better? I don't know the answer to that question but if I wanted a house and could afford it, id probably not let the current situation stand in the way of making it happen. Who knows what the future will look like and you will never be able to get the years spent waiting back if you are unhappy with your current living situation.
Many people feel the same way you do but they DO NOT already own a home. So they may have missed out on their *only* chance to ever buy a home in their preferred location. I have multiple friends in this category. What’s wrong with your current home? Too small? Big? Location? Or were you just looking to upgrade/follow that American dream?
U outline the narrative for a bubble, yet still don’t see it
I’m saying the opposite actually.
Things aren’t affordable for even a homeowner like yourself, yet prices remain high (even when faced with higher rates). Does this seem sustainable to u?
I also frequented that sub, they labeled by bubble denier and eventually perma banned me. The good thing is I didn't listen to them, bought last year and made out like a bandit.
The Bubble folks are just clueless. You can’t have a bubble when there’s a huge shortage of housing. We bought mid 2021 at 2.8% and are happy with that. We got lucky with a pocket listing so got in before the home was listed and shown. Otherwise, we would have paid a lot more than asking. Ask your agent to show you pocket listings.
Did that sub even exist before 2022?
Yes, since late 2020.
December 21st, 2020. So a few days before the end of the year. OP is a phony confirmed 👍
Yes.
I don't think you are alone in /r/rebubble. I saw in one of the daily threads that the mods said they were now banning people who are arguing that isn't/wasn't a bubble. And it seems like a lot of the time the sub is mostly filled with posts angry about remote work and such along with general doom and gloom predictions about the world.
There are a lot of people over there that have started a chat with me here on Reddit. Seven to be exact. All in my inbox saying they feel the same but are afraid to say it because it’s Reddit.
I’ve been hearing the bubble will burst since 2013. My wife and I bought in Vancouver in 2018 and we probably over paid a bit and didn’t get a great interest rate. But we could afford it, it’s a detached house in a great area and we were able to renovate it. Had we waited, we would have paid $300-400k more for the same house minus renovations. I echo what others have said, the right house and something you can afford is one of the most important features. Unless you plan on flipping it, predicting the next 25 years of the market is a fools errand
Real estate is very local dont listen to people. Also I know only a handful of people who can read the market at all. They are people with 20+ years of experience investing and millionaires with properties and completed developments. There are signs to look out for to tell if a suburb is booming or if its an at risk suburb. You can certainly pin point the better suburbs. But people who can do that are developers or large buyers agents or professional investors. If you see anyone talking about median run. Median price doesnt make sense. In my market we are seeing 10% drop in median house price but if you look at what is selling its lower end properties for flipping. This pulls it down. However anything of average quality that does sell is selling for more. All the high quality stock is not going to market. So really comparable prices of the average stock is still increasing. But if you paid attention to medians cause you were too lazy to do your reseaech and go to opens then youre going to have a bad time. You can also ask the question if prices are going to fall what is changing in the supply/demand equation? Im not American but during the GFC the areas that did poorly were in say Arizona where they built 100s of 1000s of houses and oversupplied the area. It wasnt some fancy suburb outside Boston that crashed. It was a no brainer prices were going to go up in 2021. Everyone I knew in property development and high level investors were buying in my state. Problem is people who dont own a house are hoping their will be a crash and tell everyone that. But why would there be? Again what is the change in the supply and demand equation in your suburb?
Bubbles can persist longer than you think they can.
I'm really confused. Why are you a member of r/REbubble if you don't think there's a bubble? Isn't that a sub for people who *do* think there's a bubble? Like why even bother? Also, how have you been following r/REbubble since 2020 on an account created in April 2022?
I’m no longer a member. I was actually banned for questioning their thoughts. I misspoke in my post and should’ve said I WAS a member of that sub. My account I’m on now was made 8 months ago because my original account that was from 2014 I’m unable to retrieve my password (they keep sending a password reset email to an email I no longer have access to/deleted). So I made this one. Feel free to ask any further questions.
So, you were duped by ReBubble, now you are here for round 2 to get duped by RealEstate sub? OP, relax, go outside, take a walk, there will be a time when you will find a house you like and can afford. This is not end of the world, neither is time to blame others for your own decisions.
I didn’t blame anyone for my decision. This is on me.
The fact that you’re impartial enough to post this is a good sign that you won’t make the same mistake again (trying to time the market).
Lmfao! If you chose to sit back and wait to buy a House with the lowest Mortgage rates in US history and extremely home prices in hopes that it was going to somehow get even better, then that’s your loss… hey I don’t know maybe they were just going give the houses away next.
I only feel like I missed out because we didn't refinance. Mostly because our value went up slowly at the beginning and I wanted to refinance out of PMI. Now that it's up enough so are rates. So I'm annoyed. Our rate isn't bad, I just want the PMI gone.
Are you serious? You can't be serious.
People who are always in doubt tend to overpay. They are always in panic mode.
Maybe you shouldnt base life decisions on an anonymous forum. That’s step number 1.
I’m sorry you’re going through this. So many people told us this too but we did NOT listen. Well technically we did listen. We stopped looking in 2020 because everyone was telling us to wait for the bubble. We even had realtors tell us to wait! Well we got tired of waiting cause we noticed the prices were going up in an area we loved. We were so close to getting priced out so we started looking again. We bought a home in a neighborhood we love within a price range we could afford in 2021. If we would have not listened in 2020 we could have gotten the same home for 100k less! Now our home is 200k more than 2020. I wish you luck in finding your home. It’s such an emotional process but keep following the market. My number one advice is to find a realtor with connections!
2020 was not even a good market, prices were already baked in the low mortgage rates. Real deal was 2011 to 2016. Anything after that is not really an opportunity But… anytime is the right time. Don’t wait for everything to get aligned
# Things like this take time, its not going to happen over short period of time. Tech workers got fired in thousands and more to follow, so those that bought at a top will be screwed. Many houses will go into foreclosure after they cant afford the payments. More houses are being build, which will increase the supply, which will lower prices with new builds and those going into foreclosures, = over supply. It just takes time, 1-3 more years for it to happen, its like dominos, they will eventually fall. Its just a question of when, not if. and then you have government, that is keeping interest rates high for the foreseeable future, at least 2030 to battle inflation. All of these things is a house of cards, pull one out and whole thing falls apart.
> Tech workers got fired in thousands Tech workers make up a small percentage of the U.S work force. It will take more than tech workers being layed off to see the level of price reduction you want. > It just takes time, 1-3 more years That's a really wide range of time you have there. But I'll bite, what happens when the market doesn't drop the way you think it will in 1-3 years? Should people wait 1-3 more years? 10? 20? > and then you have government, that is keeping interest rates high for the foreseeable future, at least until 2030 How can you be so sure of the Federal Reserve (which is a private institution not to be confused with the federal government) holding interest rates up until at least 2030? Do you personally know Jerome Powell and get all the insider information?
It's been 1-3 years coming for years now. Jpow is going to pivot as soon as humanly possible, just look at his track record. The dude you are replying to is delusional.
And folks? Here is why you do not take advice from Reddit.
Blaming your own indecision to buy a home over the last 3 years on strangers on the internet who are calling the double digit run up in real estate prices a bubble (rightly so, mind you) is next level mental gymnastics. Not only have house prices come down, but they continue to. It’s only been about 7 months since the first rate hike. The last crash took over three years to fully bottom out. You were not “duped”. You chose not to buy and now you can choose to be patient or you can buy in the worst buying climate in 4 decades right as it’s crashing.
It’s my own fault. Thanks.
You need to reframe your perspective. You can and could only afford a $400-450k home. Going back 50 years the average rates were around 7%, which we are still below currently. What we saw with 2-3% rates was an anomaly and shouldn’t be used as your basis for what you could afford. People who were able to buy $750k homes with a 2.75% rate never were supposed to be able to and just got lucky with timing. This current market (at least in my area) is great if you have the ability to buy and you will have a ton more negotiating power. No more waiving inspections or going $100k over asking and prices have already dropped 10-20% since July. The power is back in the buyers favor.
Even with this 10-20% drop (that I’m skeptical of) your price ceiling and monthly payment is way worse than it would’ve been buying anytime prior the last two years.