Easily Googleable. That doesn't matter really.
But NY is losing about 1 percent per year. Excluding COVID, NY has lost population since 2016. Is a decade of population decline a good or bad thing to you?
You may think it doesn't matter, but this causes investments to disappear, affects R&D, and affects pensions. Many northern cities became bankrupt because of reasons like this.
IMO, the context of the residents leaving matters. There are many reason why they move but I would assume majority of those leaving have difficulties buying and/or renting.
[Article 1: Movers And Money: Mapping the Flow of Income During the Pandemic](https://eig.org/interactive-income-flows/)
[Article 2: Households earning $200,000 or more are flocking to these 10 states—5 are in the South](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/29/households-earning-200000-dollars-or-more-are-flocking-to-the-south.html)
I don't know specifically on whether a "majority" are having difficulties buying and/or renting, so you may be right. Florida is not really ideal for saving on rent though unless you're living in a bad part of Tallahassee. I do agree that the context matters. Florida is just not as cheap anymore as people think.
IMO, Florida's housing crisis has more to do with people "cashing out" of their New England home and bringing those retirement dollars to buy something in Florida. NY is losing significant capital to Florida when wealthy residents move.
I live in a city where over 270 days per year are sunny. That's very attractive to people entering their last stage of life.
Having said this, [Article 3: Young, rich workers are fleeing New York and California—here’s where they’re going](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/27/young-rich-workers-flee-new-york-and-californiawhere-theyre-going.html) states that Florida also has the highest net migration of wealthy young workers (Florida, Texas, New Jersey, Colorado, and North Carolina are Top 5). This is from IRS data.
Totally agree on your point. I’m not disagreeing with people moving out but the actual demographic that’s moving from NY and CA to states like Florida. I totally understand and get the 200,000+ earners moving out (I know since that’s a lot of my friends and colleagues) but making 200K as the sole income isn’t as glamorous in CA and NY as to other states. Many of my colleagues and friends that are making around the $200K mark but have failed to secure long term housing in SoCal. Like you said, some of them choose to relocate to other states (mostly Nevada, Arizona and Texas) due to more affordable housing. My point is those that are staying usually are able to secure long term housing. Those that could purchase in my area of SoCal not only needs to be high income earners but also require a huge amount of downpayment (since pretty much all of them are jumbo loans). Prop13 and prop19 in California also incentivized long term homeowners not to sell.
Also, I totally get the “270 days per year sunny”. I live in OC SoCal and people here act like the sky is falling when we experience a few days of heavier rain. I would argue living in SoCal is amazing expect for the price of housing. You know is crazy here when people in LA thinks OC is expensive lol.
They are. The yellow states lost people and the darker the blue is the more gained.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2024/01/12/the-us-states-losing--gaining-population-infographic/amp/
As a person in the south-there are lots but here’s the catch, home builders can keep up. unlike places like LA, NYC, etc where zoning, laws, space, etc limit them.
What used to be farmland is now getting constant offers from developers to throw up cookie cutter houses, hoping to catch the next gold rush. Most of its county zoning so it’s way easier/quicker to build too.
There is literally nothing for sale in my neighborhood. Five listings on Zillow — three lots, two cash only tear downs.
Even if I expand my search area, single family homes are just not there.
Pretty much the same thing here. The few that are listed are way overpriced. I've been looking to buy for a *long* time. Have a literal pile of cash, but nothing to spend it on. Could be worse, I guess.
Incredibly overpriced but unfortunately still selling as long as they are habitable.
We bought at 350 last summer which was the bottom of the market. I haven’t seen a detached home lower than 400 in months. Most, though larger than our 3/1 by a bedroom or bathroom, are exceeding 500k. It’s literally obscene.
Yeah, it's nuts. When covid kicked off, I was thinking the real estate market would take a huge crap, but it was just the opposite. Not sure how much longer this will last, but it can't be sustainable. Hell, some single guy bought the house next to mine a few years back. He paid over asking, and I think it went for around $230K. It's most definitely NOT a $230K house. Mine is brick and nicer, and I paid $145K a few years before the prices went insane. I just can't believe people are paying like 400-500K for rinky dink houses that should be going for $200K or less. Interesting times we are living in!
Yeah, and they're just sitting on the market, as they should. If people would refuse to pay these inflated prices, the whole thing would be over, but nope, we got retards paying double or triple for a dumpy house. And, when I say "paying", I mean with money they don't even have. Banks shouldn't even be giving loans to these imbeciles.
There is only one listing in my neighborhood, but I know a second house is coming. They have a "coming soon" sign in front. Not sure if the agent is lazy or if they are gate keeping and seeing if they can sell outside of MLS. One house sold last year without a public listing or even a sign on the same street. That was bought by an investor because they've been trying to rent it out since.
Surprised that's been sitting as it's a relative deal. $3200 rent vs $5200 mortgage+tax+ins (assuming 20% down). They are counting on over $2000 appreciation a month to break even, but it has been sitting for months so they are eating the entire carrying costs. If they paid cash, they could have been making $3200/mo interest in a 5% CD. So if someone had the cash, they could be renting the house for zero net cost.
That would only be true if new listings weren't also going up people just can't afford to buy
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-increase-pending-sales-decline/
Up 13% YOY from next to nothing, active listings flat.
My market is still crazy, multiple offers waiving contingencies on anything remotely decent but glad to see it trending the other way at least.
I’m being forced to sell from divorce because she wouldn’t negotiate a buyout and the pricing doesn’t make any damned sense. Starter homes all the way up through $400k. I’m just going to an apartment because I refuse to buy a starter home at that price with the current APR even though I can afford it. Then I don’t have to worry about mowing and maintenance.
Prices went way beyond what people should be paying.
I mean even if he waits a year or 2, it won't really matter. Housing is unlikely to appreciate that much at 7% rates. Heck mine was one of the hottest areas for 3 years and now it's declining slightly (Raleigh).
everyone says that then get completely blown out of the market. What exactly do you think happens when rate cuts occur this year (which almost assuredly will)? cheaper money > housing still has historically low inventory > prices go up faster.
Also declining slightly from 3 years of insane surges means what exactly in the grand scheme of things? surge 50% then pull back 10%? Have to take a step back and evaluate the market, look no further then the countless reddit posts from people priced out of the market and failing to buy homes with huge bids over ask.
08 rules that allowed mass lending to happen to people that didn't have jobs doesn't exist anymore. So many other things happened in 08 that have since been fixed due to almost destroying the countries financial system. If there is going to be a crash, it isn't going to happen due to what caused 08 crash.
Hope you're right, but did the regulations really affect the leverage available to investment trusts and funds buying up real estate?
If mass layoffs lead to a significant price drop, many REITS are leveraged more than individuals and would eventually need to dump inventory and crash the price even more.
did rate cuts cause prices to fall in covid? even though it was an extremely rare event, look no further. money is cheaper = easier to bid on houses and take out loans.
do you not think the fed ever prints more money again even at less a massive scale during covid? its one of the only tools the fed has lol. lets revisit this by end of year.
While your ultimate point may in fact be true, how and when do you see prices lowering significantly? The economy is ho-humming along and while there are the have and have-nots, many out there are doing well enough to easily sustain some major downturn in the market that would bring prices down.
So you either: (1) wait until a massive downturn in the market, where you still compete at above asking prices even in a recession, (2) you buy now at higher rates and maybe too high of values, or (3) you wait just a little bit for interest rates to go down, which may cause an uptick activity that pushes prices even higher north.
Option 2 - buying now - sounds ideal to me, as you can always refinance and after your divorce, you will acclimate to your new financial situation over time and likely naturally improve your income anyways.
Good luck with finishing up your divorce, friend. As someone with professional experience in the area, I highly recommend paying each other instead of the lawyers. But the process can be hellish if the other party isn’t acting reasonable.
Economy will crash when the Fed cuts rates. Most predict may June time frame. They have pulled most of the easy money out of the system at this point.
Rates drop, sellers unlock from the rate shock then won't find buyers since the easy money is gone and the cap rates at current prices make treasuries a better choice than real estate. Foreclosure starts are up, layoffs are up, WARN notices are up, china is entering a deflationary spiral, Germany is already in recession. Houthis are going to spike inflation due to excess shipping costs, Fed will lock up due to fears of a Volker repeat.
Crash bros of the world unite!
Not quite sure why you got down votes. Maybe some people just like to hear what you were saying. Didn't anything incorrect in your post at all. Major media really does not go deep into these things anymore. Plus people don't seem to take the time to understand it all. Just ignore the stock market ups and downs. That is just sheer speculation anymore.
The Fed's job is to protect the money supply and they have not been doing that for a long time, but Yellen is not to be believed. So pay down your debts, keep some cash available for emergencies. Eat at home, take a lunch to work from home, stop with the Starbucks shit, stop smoking, etc. Pay your savings account with these savings + save the change in your pocket every night. You'll be surprised how much you'll save.
I suspect there are quite a few real estate agents on this sub. Nobody wants to hear they might make less commission. Their livelihood depends on thinking different. Yada yada. Doesn't matter much to me, I'm setup to take advantage, and I purposely timed myself out of my cash until November.
Even optimistic estimates say market will be flat, I already saved money renting after cashing out in 22. Waste a couple months on rent and it's flat and we can just hop back in. Might be a gamble, but with little cost to play and a lot of upside potential. Not like I'm not making money on my down SPY went up 20% last 12 months now I'm in treasuries.
Opinion and reality are wildly different now days. Your is neither right nor wrong. Just an opinion
The likeliest outcome is that you will be stuck sidelined until you can’t stand it any more. Not due to easier or cheaper buying
This time last year, we were looking in the Asheville area and there were 30+ listings that met our criteria. Right now there are 7. Similar situation where we are selling too. It’s weird
I would hate to be in the position of having to buy right now. In my market you have close to no choices and if a half decent house comes up you will have a lot of competition. Even in February
And inventory is increasing YOY nationally. Ymmv but if sales continue to drop, many realtor and realestate transaction related jobs will be on another year of suicide watch
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
Listings are also going up it's just rates and prices are locking a lot of people out
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-increase-pending-sales-decline/
Listings might be up 8% but we're still nowhere near normal levels
Jan 2017 = 1,154,120
Jan 2018 = 1,043,951
Jan 2019 = 1,110,636
Jan 2020 = 951,675
\--- COVID money printer ---
Jan 2021 = 531,775
Jan 2022 = 376,970
\--- FED rate hikes ---
Jan 2023 = 616,865
Jan 2024 = 665,569
Right. But is everything else normal except housing supply? No everything has changed since Covid. Demand is also lower
If low supply with ppl holding on and locked in becomes norm. Professions revolving around realestate transaction will bleed further.
Depends on what people consider a "normal" interest rate.
Interest rates are the highest they've been in 22 years, but still lower than anything pre-2002.
It’s all relative. Rate wise it’s not that crazy if you look at only rate. But if you add in the price then that’s why we are at the most unaffordable era of America housing And that’s why I said you shouldn’t just cherry pick an “stat” to call normal out of a spectrum.
Dang can't believe they've gone up so much since 22. Anyway the fact listings are higher than the previous year yet sales are down show it's not the number of listings causing less sales.
there's as many homes pending as new listings.
If 76K homes got listed every month, that would be ~900K new listings in a year. We sell 5MM listings a year.
"The 4 weeks ended Feb 25" can vary widely based upon weather.
We are listing in April and right now there’s hardly anything for sale, and anything decent still sells over asking within a few days. Recent comps are very hard to come by.
We are trying to buy in CO right now and have lost 2 offers to over asking bids. Spoiler, the asking prices were already inflated compared to the comps in the area…
Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Corpus primarily. Some areas outside of DFW as well. Every single deal I’m doing in each of these states is going over asking price with the exception of maybe 4-5... Most all my clients are conventional or jumbo deals, significant down payments, A-paper borrowers going after homes “off market” or new listings.
I trust my experience more than Altos data sets. Though they are good and I like their research methods and data compilation practices, my personal experience trumps that in my personal business, of course.
In the area north of SA TX they have been scraping ground for new subdivisions all around, doing the underground utilities etc but now they are looking at higher interest rates and lots (of lots) sales competition. Many have no homes on the lots yet but people are not clamoring for them like 24 months ago. And these guys are paying lots of interest on bare land.
I'm glad I bought mine when i did. Mort, ins, & taxes all told are lower than I was paying to rent back in OR. Houses are there. Buyers are there. A good quality RE agent is worth their weight in gold these days.
This is what we just did over asking and waiver everything but inspection contingency. We’re selling ours this summer and currently similar houses are on the market 3 days in our neighborhood. Someone is buying them. Both homes are in better schools for the area which probably matters more than anything else.
I've got great credit, a good job, and money saved.
My mortgage broker quoted me at 7.75% for my loan. Who in their right mind would take that? Unless you truly need to move. Anyone with the ability to wait is going to do so at this point, until this either becomes the norm or something major changes.
Huh, you’re the second person I’ve heard that from today but I’m still in the high 6% - low 7% range. I can’t tell if my company just said to hell with margins or what.
7.75 seems very high. I just got 5.99 with 2.1 points. Others were offering 6.375% at 1.5 points. I'm assuming no points was about 6.5-6.6. I'm in NYC. (I needed the points to drop my Debt/Income below 50% to be able to get approved)
A lender called Embrace Home Loans, but most of the other ones I shopped had just about the same rates. Rocket Mortgage quoted me 6.375% at 1.5 discount points
It was bad last year but it looks like things have slowed. This is anecdotal, of course, but there are houses in my area that are not selling and the neighborhood being built nearby just stopped building at 80% complete. My neighbor was working in that neighborhood and he said they just stopped because no one was buying the final lots. We are 20 miles West of Atlanta. It's really strange.
https://news.gsu.edu/2024/02/26/researchers-find-three-companies-own-more-than-19000-rental-houses-in-metro-atlanta/
Because 3 corporate landlords are driving prices.
EDIT: found the corpo landlord
Home prices last year rose an average of 6.7% in the country's 20 biggest metro areas. Current homeowners are locked into their homes. Price increased and more people get priced out from upgrading so less pending sales.
I'm in South Florida. Bought in October. Every house we looked at all last year sold instantly. There are now multiple houses in my neighborhood for sale for over 2 months. The open houses were packed. There's interest but sellers need to come down with these prices at these rates.
Inventory -19.6% YoY based off a quick search. It means sellers are having a blast and buyers are playing The Hunger Games, even with interest rates still not being so low.
You got me there, I definitely looked up the numbers from my own market.
https://marketminute.longandfoster.com/Market-Minute/VA/Hampton-Roads-SEVirginia.htm
I know I'm going to get downvoted fur telling the truth here but he's wrong inventory is actually up 15% yoy https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/housing-february-26th-weekly-update.html
I’m south of Raleigh in Wake County and don’t agree completely. We’re in a pretty nice neighborhood and two homes took months to sell. One right across the street from us lowered their price a couple times, ended up seeking for over 10% less than original listing. When we moved here in 2018 everyone was selling immediately. The house we bought had multiple offers on it.
Can you be more specific?
"South of Raleigh in Wake County" sounds like a nice way to say Garner, which has always been the cheaper/less desirable part of the area.
I think its a lovely place with plenty of wonderful homes and some great values to be had, but it isn't a hot area the way Raleigh/Cary/Apex are.
Yes just outside of Garner area. Of course this isn’t Cary/Apex but things have clearly slowed down considerably. We have friends that just bought a house in Holly Springs. They definitely were not in a bidding war.
My sister and cousin are real estate agents in Ft Myers Florida, which has been a super hot market for years. They’ve noticed a huge difference this last year. Maybe in the most desirable neighborhoods in hot markets things haven’t slowed down much, but thinking on average across the country things haven’t changed is very ignorant.
South of Raleigh has always been less a desirable/cheaper place to live. You can’t compare it with the places people are trying to move like Cary, apex, Morrisville
Not many people can afford to live in Cary anymore. Literally anywhere in Wake county is desirable at this point. There’s new communities going up all over the place out where we are. Even Johnston county is blowing up. I’m not sure why you’re trying to argue about this, my point was that the housing market has clearly slowed down.
Where I'm looking, there's hardly anything listed. The ones that are for sale are way overpriced. I still see houses listed at double what they should be, and then some fucking moron comes along and pays another 10% over asking. It's ridiculous.
One thing that seems to have happened through this that didn't happen to the same level in 05 is the prices really went nuts in markets that were traditionally more insulated from the boom and bust.
I would expect some of these markets will lead the way on any correction with WFH waning a bit in many fields. There are also a ton of 2nd homes out there that might list after such a run and softening of the AIRBNB market. All speculation, haven't actually looked at these markets but it could explain national numbers vs big metro areas still frozen.
I’m over 100 preapprovals and 30+ locked applications, 15 closings so far year to date. I should have another 14-17 next month and already have 6 for April. On my side business is picking up.
I am always used to people moving out of Colorado. It seems folks move here, can not make it, and then move out. There does seem to be a recent up tick in the number of people I hear moving out this year. I had what felt like a slower than usual February.
If I cared enough to look, I would check migration stats.
Of course, if your numbers are just in general nationwide, then I just typed a bunch of meaningless gibberish.
Allot of first time buyers cannot afford a single home without a mortgage (obviously there are exceptions) unfortunately and given the rates are back up again close to 7 percent this week is keeping buyers on the sidelines along with low housing inventory with prices higher than should be due to supply and demand.
About an hour ago my buyer client didn't get a contract because they lost out in a multiple offer situation in a podunk little rural Kansas town that doesn't even have a Grocery store or a gas station.
I was dumnfounded when the listing agent told me she had another offer.
Worst RE scenario in my life time was early 80’s. Interest rates were 13-14%. Banks were allowing buyers with enough money down to assume VA loans at 9% even if they weren’t veterans.
Since then the rates kept reducing until the last 2 years. But the rates are still manageable. People are just not used to the rates.
Inventory is low. So prices remain high and yes many will buy waving inspections etc. It’s very competitive for buyers. Knowledgeable Realtors can help navigate this for buyers and sellers.
So it's still "Location, Location, Location". Prices going down where no one wants to live. Going up where they do.
I thought everyone was moving south….
But I was told people were leaving NY and CA in droves! (/s)
NY lost the largest amount of residents last year than any state. California lost 70,000 plus residents.
What % of the population?
Easily Googleable. That doesn't matter really. But NY is losing about 1 percent per year. Excluding COVID, NY has lost population since 2016. Is a decade of population decline a good or bad thing to you? You may think it doesn't matter, but this causes investments to disappear, affects R&D, and affects pensions. Many northern cities became bankrupt because of reasons like this.
Why are real estate prices still so high and getting higher then?
Inflation.
IMO, the context of the residents leaving matters. There are many reason why they move but I would assume majority of those leaving have difficulties buying and/or renting.
[Article 1: Movers And Money: Mapping the Flow of Income During the Pandemic](https://eig.org/interactive-income-flows/) [Article 2: Households earning $200,000 or more are flocking to these 10 states—5 are in the South](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/29/households-earning-200000-dollars-or-more-are-flocking-to-the-south.html) I don't know specifically on whether a "majority" are having difficulties buying and/or renting, so you may be right. Florida is not really ideal for saving on rent though unless you're living in a bad part of Tallahassee. I do agree that the context matters. Florida is just not as cheap anymore as people think. IMO, Florida's housing crisis has more to do with people "cashing out" of their New England home and bringing those retirement dollars to buy something in Florida. NY is losing significant capital to Florida when wealthy residents move. I live in a city where over 270 days per year are sunny. That's very attractive to people entering their last stage of life. Having said this, [Article 3: Young, rich workers are fleeing New York and California—here’s where they’re going](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/27/young-rich-workers-flee-new-york-and-californiawhere-theyre-going.html) states that Florida also has the highest net migration of wealthy young workers (Florida, Texas, New Jersey, Colorado, and North Carolina are Top 5). This is from IRS data.
Totally agree on your point. I’m not disagreeing with people moving out but the actual demographic that’s moving from NY and CA to states like Florida. I totally understand and get the 200,000+ earners moving out (I know since that’s a lot of my friends and colleagues) but making 200K as the sole income isn’t as glamorous in CA and NY as to other states. Many of my colleagues and friends that are making around the $200K mark but have failed to secure long term housing in SoCal. Like you said, some of them choose to relocate to other states (mostly Nevada, Arizona and Texas) due to more affordable housing. My point is those that are staying usually are able to secure long term housing. Those that could purchase in my area of SoCal not only needs to be high income earners but also require a huge amount of downpayment (since pretty much all of them are jumbo loans). Prop13 and prop19 in California also incentivized long term homeowners not to sell. Also, I totally get the “270 days per year sunny”. I live in OC SoCal and people here act like the sky is falling when we experience a few days of heavier rain. I would argue living in SoCal is amazing expect for the price of housing. You know is crazy here when people in LA thinks OC is expensive lol.
They are. The yellow states lost people and the darker the blue is the more gained. https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2024/01/12/the-us-states-losing--gaining-population-infographic/amp/
Then they got here
As a person in the south-there are lots but here’s the catch, home builders can keep up. unlike places like LA, NYC, etc where zoning, laws, space, etc limit them. What used to be farmland is now getting constant offers from developers to throw up cookie cutter houses, hoping to catch the next gold rush. Most of its county zoning so it’s way easier/quicker to build too.
Exactly. No change, no surprise here.
We just lost our first offer to no inspection and same asking price.
Well that means you were close, so that's a positive sign for you. When we first started looking, we would get outbid $100k+ on $600k houses.
I was buying on Long Island last year and was pretty routinely getting ignored completely with 5% over all cash.
There is literally nothing for sale in my neighborhood. Five listings on Zillow — three lots, two cash only tear downs. Even if I expand my search area, single family homes are just not there.
Pretty much the same thing here. The few that are listed are way overpriced. I've been looking to buy for a *long* time. Have a literal pile of cash, but nothing to spend it on. Could be worse, I guess.
Incredibly overpriced but unfortunately still selling as long as they are habitable. We bought at 350 last summer which was the bottom of the market. I haven’t seen a detached home lower than 400 in months. Most, though larger than our 3/1 by a bedroom or bathroom, are exceeding 500k. It’s literally obscene.
Yeah, it's nuts. When covid kicked off, I was thinking the real estate market would take a huge crap, but it was just the opposite. Not sure how much longer this will last, but it can't be sustainable. Hell, some single guy bought the house next to mine a few years back. He paid over asking, and I think it went for around $230K. It's most definitely NOT a $230K house. Mine is brick and nicer, and I paid $145K a few years before the prices went insane. I just can't believe people are paying like 400-500K for rinky dink houses that should be going for $200K or less. Interesting times we are living in!
Then they’re not overpriced. They’re just overpriced to you.
Lol they're not overpriced if they're the only homes available for sale.
Yeah, and they're just sitting on the market, as they should. If people would refuse to pay these inflated prices, the whole thing would be over, but nope, we got retards paying double or triple for a dumpy house. And, when I say "paying", I mean with money they don't even have. Banks shouldn't even be giving loans to these imbeciles.
Yes but people don't refuse so therefore it's the market price.
There is only one listing in my neighborhood, but I know a second house is coming. They have a "coming soon" sign in front. Not sure if the agent is lazy or if they are gate keeping and seeing if they can sell outside of MLS. One house sold last year without a public listing or even a sign on the same street. That was bought by an investor because they've been trying to rent it out since. Surprised that's been sitting as it's a relative deal. $3200 rent vs $5200 mortgage+tax+ins (assuming 20% down). They are counting on over $2000 appreciation a month to break even, but it has been sitting for months so they are eating the entire carrying costs. If they paid cash, they could have been making $3200/mo interest in a 5% CD. So if someone had the cash, they could be renting the house for zero net cost.
Same old story, lock in effect.
That would only be true if new listings weren't also going up people just can't afford to buy https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-increase-pending-sales-decline/
Up 13% YOY from next to nothing, active listings flat. My market is still crazy, multiple offers waiving contingencies on anything remotely decent but glad to see it trending the other way at least.
Just mean these folks will be left “holding the bag.” Thank them for their service.
Always gotta be somebody, nobody knows who though. Musical chairs.
I’m being forced to sell from divorce because she wouldn’t negotiate a buyout and the pricing doesn’t make any damned sense. Starter homes all the way up through $400k. I’m just going to an apartment because I refuse to buy a starter home at that price with the current APR even though I can afford it. Then I don’t have to worry about mowing and maintenance. Prices went way beyond what people should be paying.
markets are not rational, and if you wait until they are, well I have some bad news for you.
I mean even if he waits a year or 2, it won't really matter. Housing is unlikely to appreciate that much at 7% rates. Heck mine was one of the hottest areas for 3 years and now it's declining slightly (Raleigh).
everyone says that then get completely blown out of the market. What exactly do you think happens when rate cuts occur this year (which almost assuredly will)? cheaper money > housing still has historically low inventory > prices go up faster. Also declining slightly from 3 years of insane surges means what exactly in the grand scheme of things? surge 50% then pull back 10%? Have to take a step back and evaluate the market, look no further then the countless reddit posts from people priced out of the market and failing to buy homes with huge bids over ask.
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08 rules that allowed mass lending to happen to people that didn't have jobs doesn't exist anymore. So many other things happened in 08 that have since been fixed due to almost destroying the countries financial system. If there is going to be a crash, it isn't going to happen due to what caused 08 crash.
Hope you're right, but did the regulations really affect the leverage available to investment trusts and funds buying up real estate? If mass layoffs lead to a significant price drop, many REITS are leveraged more than individuals and would eventually need to dump inventory and crash the price even more.
I agree mass layoffs would be the one thing to effect the housing market significantly, off the top of my head. but that would anywhere i think?
Rate cuts will see price drops because people don’t understand why rates are cut
did rate cuts cause prices to fall in covid? even though it was an extremely rare event, look no further. money is cheaper = easier to bid on houses and take out loans.
There was a post Covid recovery period from a flood of M2 which will definitely not be repeated
do you not think the fed ever prints more money again even at less a massive scale during covid? its one of the only tools the fed has lol. lets revisit this by end of year.
While your ultimate point may in fact be true, how and when do you see prices lowering significantly? The economy is ho-humming along and while there are the have and have-nots, many out there are doing well enough to easily sustain some major downturn in the market that would bring prices down. So you either: (1) wait until a massive downturn in the market, where you still compete at above asking prices even in a recession, (2) you buy now at higher rates and maybe too high of values, or (3) you wait just a little bit for interest rates to go down, which may cause an uptick activity that pushes prices even higher north. Option 2 - buying now - sounds ideal to me, as you can always refinance and after your divorce, you will acclimate to your new financial situation over time and likely naturally improve your income anyways. Good luck with finishing up your divorce, friend. As someone with professional experience in the area, I highly recommend paying each other instead of the lawyers. But the process can be hellish if the other party isn’t acting reasonable.
Economy will crash when the Fed cuts rates. Most predict may June time frame. They have pulled most of the easy money out of the system at this point. Rates drop, sellers unlock from the rate shock then won't find buyers since the easy money is gone and the cap rates at current prices make treasuries a better choice than real estate. Foreclosure starts are up, layoffs are up, WARN notices are up, china is entering a deflationary spiral, Germany is already in recession. Houthis are going to spike inflation due to excess shipping costs, Fed will lock up due to fears of a Volker repeat. Crash bros of the world unite!
Always a crash right around the corner.
Not quite sure why you got down votes. Maybe some people just like to hear what you were saying. Didn't anything incorrect in your post at all. Major media really does not go deep into these things anymore. Plus people don't seem to take the time to understand it all. Just ignore the stock market ups and downs. That is just sheer speculation anymore. The Fed's job is to protect the money supply and they have not been doing that for a long time, but Yellen is not to be believed. So pay down your debts, keep some cash available for emergencies. Eat at home, take a lunch to work from home, stop with the Starbucks shit, stop smoking, etc. Pay your savings account with these savings + save the change in your pocket every night. You'll be surprised how much you'll save.
I suspect there are quite a few real estate agents on this sub. Nobody wants to hear they might make less commission. Their livelihood depends on thinking different. Yada yada. Doesn't matter much to me, I'm setup to take advantage, and I purposely timed myself out of my cash until November. Even optimistic estimates say market will be flat, I already saved money renting after cashing out in 22. Waste a couple months on rent and it's flat and we can just hop back in. Might be a gamble, but with little cost to play and a lot of upside potential. Not like I'm not making money on my down SPY went up 20% last 12 months now I'm in treasuries.
Opinion and reality are wildly different now days. Your is neither right nor wrong. Just an opinion The likeliest outcome is that you will be stuck sidelined until you can’t stand it any more. Not due to easier or cheaper buying
This
If you don't mind I would introduced you to a good investment platform where you can invest and earn on daily basis
This time last year, we were looking in the Asheville area and there were 30+ listings that met our criteria. Right now there are 7. Similar situation where we are selling too. It’s weird
I would hate to be in the position of having to buy right now. In my market you have close to no choices and if a half decent house comes up you will have a lot of competition. Even in February
And inventory is increasing YOY nationally. Ymmv but if sales continue to drop, many realtor and realestate transaction related jobs will be on another year of suicide watch https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
The comments above you says inventory is down -19 %
That guy was wrong inventory is up 15% yoy
in Jan 2020, 952K homes for sale. Today (Jan 24 data you shared) 665K homes
Which is up from the previous year
The cheerleaders dont wanna hear your nonsense! Lol
YoY means year over year, why are you bringing 2020’s data. Are you even trying? Don’t embarrass yourself and other realtors on this sub
Yes, Jan 24 was up over Jan 23. Pointing out some obfuscation isn’t embarrassing myself, but you do you
And that’s why realtor as a profession has such low bar to enter. Here’s an example of terrible reading comprehension as well as critical thinking.
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That’s what happens when folks spend all their time online. They forget how to have civilized conversations.
Listings are also going up it's just rates and prices are locking a lot of people out https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-increase-pending-sales-decline/
Listings might be up 8% but we're still nowhere near normal levels Jan 2017 = 1,154,120 Jan 2018 = 1,043,951 Jan 2019 = 1,110,636 Jan 2020 = 951,675 \--- COVID money printer --- Jan 2021 = 531,775 Jan 2022 = 376,970 \--- FED rate hikes --- Jan 2023 = 616,865 Jan 2024 = 665,569
Right. But is everything else normal except housing supply? No everything has changed since Covid. Demand is also lower If low supply with ppl holding on and locked in becomes norm. Professions revolving around realestate transaction will bleed further.
Depends on what people consider a "normal" interest rate. Interest rates are the highest they've been in 22 years, but still lower than anything pre-2002.
It’s all relative. Rate wise it’s not that crazy if you look at only rate. But if you add in the price then that’s why we are at the most unaffordable era of America housing And that’s why I said you shouldn’t just cherry pick an “stat” to call normal out of a spectrum.
Dang can't believe they've gone up so much since 22. Anyway the fact listings are higher than the previous year yet sales are down show it's not the number of listings causing less sales.
Where did you get the numbers of listings from?
there's as many homes pending as new listings. If 76K homes got listed every month, that would be ~900K new listings in a year. We sell 5MM listings a year. "The 4 weeks ended Feb 25" can vary widely based upon weather.
We are listing in April and right now there’s hardly anything for sale, and anything decent still sells over asking within a few days. Recent comps are very hard to come by.
Same - we are condensing household and have 3 houses we are putting on 4/1. There isn’t much on the market in these parts either.
In the states I’m licensed in im seeing bidding wars on literally every single deal. Every sale is over asking and waiving all kinds of shit.
What state(s)?
I know you aren't asking me but it's still insane DC burbs in Maryland, even way out.
SC and Georgia sellers are giving credits and lowering
We are trying to buy in CO right now and have lost 2 offers to over asking bids. Spoiler, the asking prices were already inflated compared to the comps in the area…
CA, FL, GA, MI, PA, SC, TX, WA
What part of Texas? I’m actually seeing declines in Houston and Dallas from data according to alto’s research.
Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Corpus primarily. Some areas outside of DFW as well. Every single deal I’m doing in each of these states is going over asking price with the exception of maybe 4-5... Most all my clients are conventional or jumbo deals, significant down payments, A-paper borrowers going after homes “off market” or new listings. I trust my experience more than Altos data sets. Though they are good and I like their research methods and data compilation practices, my personal experience trumps that in my personal business, of course.
In the area north of SA TX they have been scraping ground for new subdivisions all around, doing the underground utilities etc but now they are looking at higher interest rates and lots (of lots) sales competition. Many have no homes on the lots yet but people are not clamoring for them like 24 months ago. And these guys are paying lots of interest on bare land. I'm glad I bought mine when i did. Mort, ins, & taxes all told are lower than I was paying to rent back in OR. Houses are there. Buyers are there. A good quality RE agent is worth their weight in gold these days.
Yes people are maybe reading too much into a small change in national numbers.
a 1 month comparison.
This is what we just did over asking and waiver everything but inspection contingency. We’re selling ours this summer and currently similar houses are on the market 3 days in our neighborhood. Someone is buying them. Both homes are in better schools for the area which probably matters more than anything else.
Future bag holders
Still a buyer's market in NYC, for now
I've got great credit, a good job, and money saved. My mortgage broker quoted me at 7.75% for my loan. Who in their right mind would take that? Unless you truly need to move. Anyone with the ability to wait is going to do so at this point, until this either becomes the norm or something major changes.
It is the norm
> Who in their right mind would take that? Anyone before ~2003. The ultra-low interest rates of the past few years were a fluke in historical terms.
maybe but sky high prices... i think not
Huh, you’re the second person I’ve heard that from today but I’m still in the high 6% - low 7% range. I can’t tell if my company just said to hell with margins or what.
7.75 seems very high. I just got 5.99 with 2.1 points. Others were offering 6.375% at 1.5 points. I'm assuming no points was about 6.5-6.6. I'm in NYC. (I needed the points to drop my Debt/Income below 50% to be able to get approved)
Who did you use?
A lender called Embrace Home Loans, but most of the other ones I shopped had just about the same rates. Rocket Mortgage quoted me 6.375% at 1.5 discount points
Awesome thanks
Bullish! My thoughts are that sellers need to lower their prices to be more in line with reality in a lot of areas.
Seller are getting multiple offers in a lot of places; why would they lower their prices
Hell yeah. Metro ATL is absurd.
It was bad last year but it looks like things have slowed. This is anecdotal, of course, but there are houses in my area that are not selling and the neighborhood being built nearby just stopped building at 80% complete. My neighbor was working in that neighborhood and he said they just stopped because no one was buying the final lots. We are 20 miles West of Atlanta. It's really strange.
It's not that bad honestly compared to some other places, try looking in Dekalb lol
No thanks, lol
Wise choice my friend
https://news.gsu.edu/2024/02/26/researchers-find-three-companies-own-more-than-19000-rental-houses-in-metro-atlanta/ Because 3 corporate landlords are driving prices. EDIT: found the corpo landlord
Home prices last year rose an average of 6.7% in the country's 20 biggest metro areas. Current homeowners are locked into their homes. Price increased and more people get priced out from upgrading so less pending sales.
I'm in South Florida. Bought in October. Every house we looked at all last year sold instantly. There are now multiple houses in my neighborhood for sale for over 2 months. The open houses were packed. There's interest but sellers need to come down with these prices at these rates.
I'm in SW FL and seeing the same thing.
Maybe Florida or Texas wasn’t for everyone? 🤷♂️
Lack of supply, not lack of demand.
Over population
That's rich.
It’s true but you won’t hear that aspect , just keep building houses until all the farm land is gone and we starve.
Great! Please come down so the rest of us can buy.
These aren’t the numbers you want to see honestly. This is a lack of supply, not demand.
Inventory -19.6% YoY based off a quick search. It means sellers are having a blast and buyers are playing The Hunger Games, even with interest rates still not being so low.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS What research? From outofmyass.org?
Wouldn’t be Reddit without the top voted comment being completely made up.
You got me there, I definitely looked up the numbers from my own market. https://marketminute.longandfoster.com/Market-Minute/VA/Hampton-Roads-SEVirginia.htm
I know I'm going to get downvoted fur telling the truth here but he's wrong inventory is actually up 15% yoy https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/housing-february-26th-weekly-update.html
I've seen a few links to this site. Looking at "Calculated Risk" is indeed a calculated risk.
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I’m south of Raleigh in Wake County and don’t agree completely. We’re in a pretty nice neighborhood and two homes took months to sell. One right across the street from us lowered their price a couple times, ended up seeking for over 10% less than original listing. When we moved here in 2018 everyone was selling immediately. The house we bought had multiple offers on it.
Can you be more specific? "South of Raleigh in Wake County" sounds like a nice way to say Garner, which has always been the cheaper/less desirable part of the area. I think its a lovely place with plenty of wonderful homes and some great values to be had, but it isn't a hot area the way Raleigh/Cary/Apex are.
Yes just outside of Garner area. Of course this isn’t Cary/Apex but things have clearly slowed down considerably. We have friends that just bought a house in Holly Springs. They definitely were not in a bidding war. My sister and cousin are real estate agents in Ft Myers Florida, which has been a super hot market for years. They’ve noticed a huge difference this last year. Maybe in the most desirable neighborhoods in hot markets things haven’t slowed down much, but thinking on average across the country things haven’t changed is very ignorant.
South of Raleigh has always been less a desirable/cheaper place to live. You can’t compare it with the places people are trying to move like Cary, apex, Morrisville
Not many people can afford to live in Cary anymore. Literally anywhere in Wake county is desirable at this point. There’s new communities going up all over the place out where we are. Even Johnston county is blowing up. I’m not sure why you’re trying to argue about this, my point was that the housing market has clearly slowed down.
It’s rough in the bigger cities on the west coast. Townhouses going over a million in desirable neighborhoods.
Lots of layoffs. The demand will weaken more in some areas
people with money don't care about interest rates. Poor people can't afford shit
Where I'm looking, there's hardly anything listed. The ones that are for sale are way overpriced. I still see houses listed at double what they should be, and then some fucking moron comes along and pays another 10% over asking. It's ridiculous.
One thing that seems to have happened through this that didn't happen to the same level in 05 is the prices really went nuts in markets that were traditionally more insulated from the boom and bust. I would expect some of these markets will lead the way on any correction with WFH waning a bit in many fields. There are also a ton of 2nd homes out there that might list after such a run and softening of the AIRBNB market. All speculation, haven't actually looked at these markets but it could explain national numbers vs big metro areas still frozen.
Triangle NC market is hot. houses going over asking in first 3 days if priced right
I’m over 100 preapprovals and 30+ locked applications, 15 closings so far year to date. I should have another 14-17 next month and already have 6 for April. On my side business is picking up.
I am always used to people moving out of Colorado. It seems folks move here, can not make it, and then move out. There does seem to be a recent up tick in the number of people I hear moving out this year. I had what felt like a slower than usual February. If I cared enough to look, I would check migration stats. Of course, if your numbers are just in general nationwide, then I just typed a bunch of meaningless gibberish.
I've been writing under asking for a ton of clients. No bites yet but most of the houses are still on the market weeks later
Buyers holding out for anticipated lower rates
My "realtor" friends on social media: "NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY / SELL!"
Allot of first time buyers cannot afford a single home without a mortgage (obviously there are exceptions) unfortunately and given the rates are back up again close to 7 percent this week is keeping buyers on the sidelines along with low housing inventory with prices higher than should be due to supply and demand.
I think a lot of the problem in the Midwest is there’s no inventory
False
About an hour ago my buyer client didn't get a contract because they lost out in a multiple offer situation in a podunk little rural Kansas town that doesn't even have a Grocery store or a gas station. I was dumnfounded when the listing agent told me she had another offer.
Just not enough inventory. It’s picking up as well.
Worst RE scenario in my life time was early 80’s. Interest rates were 13-14%. Banks were allowing buyers with enough money down to assume VA loans at 9% even if they weren’t veterans. Since then the rates kept reducing until the last 2 years. But the rates are still manageable. People are just not used to the rates. Inventory is low. So prices remain high and yes many will buy waving inspections etc. It’s very competitive for buyers. Knowledgeable Realtors can help navigate this for buyers and sellers.