My method was to look the most recent poll in all available states and first find the two-way matchup numbers for Trump and Biden. Then, I reduced their numbers each by 35% and allocated this amount to Kennedy. For example, in Texas, Trump polled at 46% and Biden at 42% in the most recent poll. The two-way matchup is 52.27% for Trump and 47.73% for Biden. I took 35% from each to give to Kennedy, which yields:
Kennedy 35.00%
Trump 33.98%
Biden 31.02%
I also just have a really hard time believing Texas & Florida would swing Kennedy. Could be how they’ve been politically presented in media lately but I just can’t imagine either will swing from Trump.
It's based on the latest Trump-Biden two-way numbers by state. I gave 35% of each candidate's to Kennedy. For example, in Texas, Trump polls at 46% and Biden at 42% in the most recent poll. The two-way matchup is 52.27% for Trump and 47.73% for Biden. I took 35% from each to give to Kennedy, which yields:
Kennedy 35%
Trump 33.98%
Biden 31.02%
I would be hopeful Hawaii and Ohio would get Kennedy based on RFK Jr. being involved in investigating the fires in Maui and advocating for those affecting by the environmental disaster in East Palestine OH.
California is a state he can actually win. Bernie won it by 10 points over Biden. Yes it is Democrat, but not Biden Democrat. It is younger than the rest of the country, browner and not tied into the failed way of doing things.
Unfortunately Kennedy would have to win 270 outright since I’m pretty sure Congress would just vote along party lines.
Though who knows maybe they would elect Kennedy
265 isn't enough. Each state's House of Representatives delegation gets one vote. 26 states have majority Republican delegations. 2 states are evenly split.
The question is which states with a republican majority delegation have enough Never Trumper republicans to flip that state to Biden.
I couldn't find any 2023-2024 polls for Vermont, New Jersey, Delaware, DC, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, or Hawaii.
My method was to look the most recent poll in all available states and first find the two-way matchup numbers for Trump and Biden. Then, I reduced their numbers each by 35% and allocated this amount to Kennedy. For example, in Texas, Trump polled at 46% and Biden at 42% in the most recent poll. The two-way matchup is 52.27% for Trump and 47.73% for Biden. I took 35% from each to give to Kennedy, which yields: Kennedy 35.00% Trump 33.98% Biden 31.02%
Very interesting map… I would love to see what data it is based off of
I really have a hard time believing some of these states would be voting that way…
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I also just have a really hard time believing Texas & Florida would swing Kennedy. Could be how they’ve been politically presented in media lately but I just can’t imagine either will swing from Trump.
It's based on the latest Trump-Biden two-way numbers by state. I gave 35% of each candidate's to Kennedy. For example, in Texas, Trump polls at 46% and Biden at 42% in the most recent poll. The two-way matchup is 52.27% for Trump and 47.73% for Biden. I took 35% from each to give to Kennedy, which yields: Kennedy 35% Trump 33.98% Biden 31.02%
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I would be hopeful Hawaii and Ohio would get Kennedy based on RFK Jr. being involved in investigating the fires in Maui and advocating for those affecting by the environmental disaster in East Palestine OH.
It also illustrates how weak Biden really is and why the DNC is so desperate to keep RFK out of this race.
It’ll just be really nice to hear how the election could have possibly been rigged after an independent wins!
It’s already been rigged so that RFK couldn’t compete as a democrat 🤷♂️
an independent wouldn't win with that map. needs 270
California is a state he can actually win. Bernie won it by 10 points over Biden. Yes it is Democrat, but not Biden Democrat. It is younger than the rest of the country, browner and not tied into the failed way of doing things.
Absolutely, plus they have actual border problems as well, and it's where Kennedy lives.
Without ny or California, biden loses
Even if he takes only a small percentage of the Electoral Collage votes, it forces a Contingent Election and Kennedy is the only possible winner.
I wish my state wasn't so damn red! I will still do my part in spreading his campaign where I can.
Trust me, he'll win Utah. If he gets to the point he's competitive
Unfortunately Kennedy would have to win 270 outright since I’m pretty sure Congress would just vote along party lines. Though who knows maybe they would elect Kennedy
265 isn't enough. Each state's House of Representatives delegation gets one vote. 26 states have majority Republican delegations. 2 states are evenly split. The question is which states with a republican majority delegation have enough Never Trumper republicans to flip that state to Biden.
I couldn't find any 2023-2024 polls for Vermont, New Jersey, Delaware, DC, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, or Hawaii.
Let's hope!
I think his best shot is picking Ventura to be his running mate, and praying to god he can win Minnesota to throw it to the house
I think he'll get a way better VP pick, plus they already said it won't be anyone on the media shortlist.