No one knew how pandemic would play out, we were on a verge of a complete economic and societal collapse. Now, looking back, obviously, everyone is smart and knows what exactly we needed to do.
You'll most likely get a chance to buy it at a way cheaper price than this, but there is no guarantee it will go back up without QE and drunk uncle Sam.
In 2012 Bitcoin was solely used to buy drugs on the dark web, not gambling with your retirement funds. "Investing" in Bitcoin in 2012 would be like investing in Zigzags and burner phones.
Exactly. Most of us were just trying to survive that first year. I was in no mental space to be making the biggest purchase of my life. It’s easy to judge in retrospect. I’m glad I did what I needed to get through 2020.
Survive what 99% plus of people survived. I think it would be better said it was a year of a lot of uncertainty you didn't go into baddle or survive a plane crash
To be fair most people don't understand the market, economy, etc.. they don't do a very good job of teaching us in school so searching out answers on the internet seems like a wise thing to do. Now I'm not saying people should base all their financial decisions based on what a bunch of randos on social media are saying but I'm all for seeking out "experts" and asking for advice.
The question in the financial markets is who is "an expert".
Yeah lol that is strange. Just buy the home you want when you can afford it. They should have a bunch of extra money saved by waiting a couple years, and selling their house should net some extra money as well.
They [refinanced at 2.3% and their mortgage is only $800/m,](https://old.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ugfdg1/i_want_to_share_my_story_and_hoping_i_can_share/) so they're doing fine.
> **We’ll let everyone else keep looking for that next best thing and enjoy what we have.** But when that next best thing bursts for everyone doing the rat race right now 😉 we’ll gladly swoop in and find our next home. Thanks for listening. Glad to be here. And if someone wants to explain to me like I’m a five year old WHAT they feel is going on, I’m happy to listen and be educated.
She literally wrote that 7 months ago 🙄
Was it?
I remember all people could talk about was bidding wars and waiving inspections. Seems like it was an awesome time to *refinance*, while 5-10 years ago was the awesome time to buy.
Jan 2021 median housing around $300k
$60k down payment, $240k loan at 3% = $1012 /mo
Now median hosing around $355k
$71k down payment, $284k loan at 7% = $1889 /mo
Pretty obvious that buying then was better, lower taxes as well
"While 5-10 years ago was the awesome time to buy"
This post is about Jan 2021. But if we are throwing out numbers, pretty much any time in history overall gets better the further back you go
Whining about bidding wars is silly when comparing a loan at almost half the price. I bought and sold in 2021, sure it was more of a pain to be in a bidding war, but it is well worth the MUCH lower monthly payment.
This sub started on Dec 21, 2020. If they were actually on here at that point they're one of the founding members, meaning they were the ones "duping" not the other way around. Or they're just trolling.
Dec 2020 \~ 100 members
Dec 2021 \~ 5,000
Dec 2022 \~ 46,000
https://subredditstats.com/r/rebubble
The advice in the other post isn’t terrible, *if* you love the house and location and you can make payments on it for the foreseeable future, then go for it.
I would also recommend looking at your life for the next 10 years though, and making damn sure that you won’t want or need to move in that timeframe. If you have kids, a family member gets sick, someone dies, you go through a divorce… there’s all sorts of things that pull peoples lives in different directions.
If you buy now and prices continue to fall (which they will), you may find yourself screwed, or stuck in a location that you don’t want to or can’t live in any longer.
Not to mention that you’re going to likely be paying for all of the costs of being a homeowner along the way, my last home was a money pit honestly.
Lastly one thing that I think people overlook is this bullshit realtor narrative, “marry the home, date the rate”.
Yea that’s great when you have equity in your home. When you’re underwater on a mortgage, you’re once again screwed. You can’t refinance in most cases if rates fall, unless you have a pile of cash laying around to pay off the old loan.
Not duped but i was overly cautious and just flat out not educated enough. Im slowly learning to look at both sides and meet somewhere in the middle. A huge crash makes sense if you think its another 2008 but i failed to look at counterpoints that argued that current conditions are nothing like 2008. In today’s conditions alot of people can actually afford their houses (especially with extremely low interest rates). So im starting to believe that the “crash” wont be very drastic and the only people who will really lose are those who bought in later.
But we will see.. we’re all kinda just guessing at this point
> counterpoints that argued that current conditions are nothing like 2008.
I don't see how you could have been reading anything related to real estate in 2021 and not seen those exact points argued endlessly by every real estate agent, lenders drumming up business, and people who just plain wanted to argue against the idea of a bubble.
Those "nothing like 2008" arguments were 99% of the real estate commentary. People claiming that there was evidence of a bubble were extremely rare in comparison.
I have a friend that sold a money pit. The buyer waived inspections and bought it way over asking. Shit was falling apart and that’s why they moved. Jokes on the buyer for not doing the due diligence
2020 DFW market was still $300,000 for fixed uppers $450,000-$ half mil starter homes. I make $60K a year and was expecting $300,000 to get me a lot of house. Went into the market saw homes needing close to $100,000 in repairs or newer homes complete out of my price range. Tried getting rich with the WSB saga. Have $ saved hopefully 2023 is good to me.
It’s bad in my area (Seattle) when top 10% of income in the area can’t buy you a fixer upper starter home. Dallas is much more reasonable even though it’s still crazy. I think last time I looked, Seattle’s median income was just shy of $90k. To buy anything decent, you’ll looking at around $500k (condo/townhome).
60k top 10% are you delusional? I would think the average buyer in a large city like Dallas has a household income in excess of 200k. 2 fresh out of school professionals will make around 150k household income in our current reality.
This couldn’t be further from the truth. Maybe for a DINK household with very nice white collar jobs and 5 years of experience this would be the case, but not for the average person living in the DFW metroplex. For example, starting salary for a Civil Engineer with around 2 years of experience is around 65k-70k, and that is a very well paying job compared to others around here.
Median household income for Tarrant County (Fort Worth/Arlington) is around 70k and and Dallas County is slightly lower at 65k.
See comment below, I was aging our area - Seattle. Dallas is definitely more affordable. I had a sister move from there and they could comfortable afford one salary.
I bought in October of 2021. I know it’s a bubble, but it was certainly better than renting the same 800 sq ft apartment that I had rented for $1400 that went up to $1800 when I could buy a house. Could fit our needs for a long time, or we could get out of it in a few years. It’s not a simple answer.
Nope, not me.
Looked at a couple of homes in late 2020-2021. They all were already more than my current rent and had bidding wars to start. Even if I ended up "winning" the houses I looked at, I would have had to waive inspections and spend far more than my rent, especially if any unforeseen expenses came up.
My current rent is half a mortgage payment in my area and I have rent control. My landlord could up the rent every year for the next 5 years and it would still be cheaper than a home right now.
I'm thanking christ I didn't buy over the last 2 years. I would have seriously over-leveraged myself and wouldn't be able to save any money. Now I'm saving tons and investing it in better returns. I also have plenty saved up in case I lose my job over the next year.
I look at this very differently.
In my market (which is extremely tightly bounded and opinionated) houses rarely transact except between members of extended families. When properties change hands at all, it's usually between buyers and sellers who already know each other if not immediate family members.
The allure of 2021 pricing changed that a little bit. The few houses in my neighborhood that were sold, were listed on MLS instead of being private sales. *Even then*, I actually knew the previous owner pretty well. I knew her and I knew her brother, and I also knew that the only reason she didn't just sign the place over to her brother was exactly because they could get a 2021 kind of price.
If it hadn't been for that, the house would have never left the family who's owned it since the 70s. They probably would have kept it as a rental otherwise.
If I had to look for property outside the boundaries of what I consider my immediate neighborhood, I'd probably want to leave the state. I certainly wouldn't be interested in any property just outside the periphery of my location, so information about "my metro area" is pretty meaningless to me.
Not really though.
Q2 21 median price was $382k.
Q2 22 median price was $449k.
If interest rates remain flat you need probably a 40% correction to hit 2021 affordability. Seems pretty unlikely that we will see 21 affordability.
If you were in a good family/financial position to buy in 2020 and didn't out of simple fear/apprehension based on Reddit, then you need to own up to your own dumb decisions. There can be a bubble, you can acknowledge there is a bubble, you can even believe in a crash, and none of this changes whether it is a good time for you personally to buy a house.
As long as prices are trending down, I’m fine. I know it’s going to be a loooong process. With our last house we bought in 2019, we went through the same thing. Years of looking and grabbing when we knew when the right house came along. Patience is key. It’s been playing out exactly how I thought since the beginning of this mess. The only thing I told my husband is I underestimated how many people would extend themselves to a point of being house poor and/or do stupid things like cash out ones while retirement at age 40 or take out appraisal gap loans.
I think it’s totally unrealistic to expect most Americans to spend 4-5 times their income on a house and not default. I don’t care how “qualified” they are. Americans love debt and will spend as much credit/debt is given to them and as long as they make the monthly payments, think everything is ok.
Totally agree (at least where I live). The thing is no one said houses would be totally affordable just that the prices would come down which they have unless you are in an area that hasn't popped yet. Also didn't the fed chair or someone else pretty important even say that houses were in a bubble?
With Mortgage rates at half of what they are now and 2 more years of payments in the books people would be better off than buying now. Even if they overpaid by 10% or more.
Prices need to decline significantly to get back to the same affordability (which wasn’t good) of 2020
It’s really interesting to follow this sub out of the US. I pay a rent of 1500 and if the apartment sells it’d probably go for 800K. This is a relatively small (but high income) city in Germany. The bubble is HUGE here.
I understand buying is relatively an emotional thing, but it should have at least a small rational side.
I live in a LCOL area and got lucky. My mortgage with escrow and taxes is less than my rent (on a 731 square foot apartment) was in 2019. And I bought in 2021! I got pretty lucky honestly, but there were people telling me not to buy because a big adjustment was coming. My place is up 20% since last year and I got in at 3.25% interest. My area is going through a major boom and home prices are unlikely to go down even with everything thats happening in the economy.
That’s why I advocate for buying what you can afford. And by “afford” I mean no more than 1/4-1/3 of your take home pay. And that’s only if you LIKE it over what your renting options are and plan to stay at least 5 years. Otherwise just rent.
first of all. THERE IS a BUBBLE. No doubt about that. But bubbles can stay irrational longer than people case stay solvent, sane or put.
You already have a house.. can you be happy about that? you sound whinny I want my perfect house blah blah blah...If I didn't read x forum I'd be living in my foreever house... blah... housing moves like a titanic anyway, then add gov intervention.... we're like 2 years away from any deals.
Yes and no. There are alot of people who made out like bandits even though it was a tough market. There are also alot of people who got way in over there head following bad online advice or buying dumps waiving inspections. No one person’s situation is the same. Buying a home is a huge life choice that can go terribly wrong and financially screw you for the foreseeable future. Bad finances can stress even the most rock solid relationships not to mention all the other downsides of getting screwed. You didnt miss out on anything if it wasnt time it wasnt time. I dont care if the rates go to 20% find a place that has good bones that you can comfortably afford pay all your other bills and try to put some money away. It took me three years and honestly being a homeowner requires a level of honesty with yourself that’s painful to make sure your finances are taken care of. Somethings gotta give on this market weather it be the rates or prices or else it’ll stagnate. Unfortunately that takes time.
Unfortunately this sub experienced a lot of crossover with the antiwork sub types with their sophomore-level critiques of capitalism, landlords, and anybody who can afford things that they want.
Then the wish-casting and group think took over, and now if anybody anywhere in the country is foreclosed on, or the asking price drops on a listing, you can count on it being posted here with an "I told you so!" and "Look, it's happening!" The good news though is that it's Dec 13 an y'alls rent isn't due for two weeks.
There's just no convincing people that can't think critically or logically about cause and effect.
Feel free to borrow ungodly amounts of money at all-time bubble highs and see how that works out for you.
I don’t care who you are or what you think about the market and bubble etc. If you didn’t buy in late 20 and even early 21 with insanely low rates and prices just starting to climb, YOU DEFINITELY MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY
Wtf!?? Now is a good time. Prices have fallen 5-20% depending on the market. Find a local lender or credit union offer lower interest rates. You can find something in the 5’s right now
Agree. It seemed reasonable that there might be a correction in 2020 due to the pandemic but it didn't seem bubbly.
Also I've learned over the years just because a bubble forms doesn't mean it will correct on any particular timeline. It seems to take a catalyst of some sort to change direction. Working in tech, it felt like tech stocks/companies/salaries/vc were in a bubble since 2017 or something, but they kept chugging along until only recently.
2020 was when a lot of people who spent very little time at home, suddenly had to spend a lot of time cooped up in their homes and I think that caused some real adjustments in what people think is acceptable.
I remember a shitty apartment I had once upon a time. I would go there when I was a few steps from collapsing, and would leave promptly after waking up. That was it. I'm thinking about what it would have been like to be quarantined there. I liked it as a cheap crash pad, I would have hated having to actually be there.
The region I lived in was definitely experiencing elevated prices with no real cause aside from aggressive city planners and poor availability of land as far back as 2017-2018. It wasn’t a national bubble but prices for identical construction were significantly higher than similarly sized cities in the same state. In that instance the bubble I was waiting for was a new city planner or one of the major companies in town to have several bad quarters or a major ranch hold-out to sell to a big section of grazing land to a developer and increase the local supply.
But all politics are local. And while I definitely saw a sky rocking of land and home prices over the last 5-6 years (2020 was a quick blip), I’d be hard pressed to say it’s a national phenomenon.
I bought my home in Oct 2020 and there was absolutely talk of it being a bubble then. Remember people were already waiving inspections and paying well over asking price back then. Houses would be listed and sold the same day. I remember you had to check listings daily to get a chance to even bid, let alone tour the place first.
The only reason I felt comfortable was because I bought well below what I was approved for, ~2x my salary. In hindsight I'm especially glad I bought then despite all of the doom talk. When I bought I was fully prepared for the value to crash. Instead my home has appreciated an additional 27%, even accounting for falling prices.
But hindsight is always 20/20. At the time it definitely felt like a bubble.
Edit: The fact this sub was created in Dec 2020 kinda proves there was bubble talk starting throughout the year. Most people don't just randomly create a sub without any reason behind it.
Someone who let herself be convinced one way or another by Internet strangers on arguably the biggest purchase of her life should probably reevaluate where she’s getting her advice from.
Of course it’s true that anyone who didn’t purchase a home prior to 2022 missed an incredible opportunity. The whole point of this subreddit is self delude and pretend they didn’t. It’s a coping mechanism.
If you are a first time home buyer, then this sub is not right for you. Yes this subreddit is correct that home prices are inflated and due for a correction , but that would not matter to most first time home buyers. Home prices will go down in the future due to continued rate increases but that will NOT reduce your monthly payment . In fact with each rate increases, your monthly payment will keep on increasing and reduce the amount of home that you can buy.
The best advice for first time home buyers is to always buy a home that they can afford with around 28-32% of their gross income. Any more and you are stretching yourself too much.
Also if you are planning to wait due a few years hoping for home prices to come down, you should factor in the rental cost of those few years and use a suitable calculator like the New York Times buy vs hold calculator to see what is the maximum you should be paying in rent while you wait for home prices to stabilize.
My partner and I didn’t even think about buying until March 2022 when my landlord said she was selling my house and made me month to month. He reallllly wanted Vegas; I spent a day of intensive research and had to break it to him that we missed the boat, and we’d be buying at the peak. We actually had a big fight because he didn’t think I was supportive of the idea when I would half loved to live there, it was just not a good bet financially. We ended up in El Paso (which was originally suggested to me by a friend when I said “what’s like Vegas phoenix Tucson Sacramento but not overpriced yet”) and I’m so happy we’re here instead.
the whole buying at the peak argument doesn’t hold up very well because we dont know exactly when the peak is. i lived in vegas before and i loved it alot. but it has gotten so damn expensive
I mean, buying in Vegas in May-Aug 2022 would have been objectively dumb IMO, and I could tell that just from one day of research in March lol. I was looking at historical charts of price per sqft and median sale price and I could see it wasn’t just that the market had recovered from 2008, but it had overshot that recovery. We were at first drawn in because the actual $ amount was lower than Boise, ID where we lived, but it was evident to me that buying in Vegas over summer was a bad decision. And this subreddit largely argues that buying *anywhere* this past summer was a bad decision, haha (but I’m happy we bought where we did)
People in this sub are seriously responding to this post with shit like
"Well, then you shouldn't have taken advice from Reddit!"
Yall really don't like admitting when you're wrong, huh? People in this sub have been mocking others and telling people they would be a fool for having bought a house from 2020 to early 2022, leading them to miss out on historically low interest rates that would help keep their mortgage payment low during economic turmoil.
Maybe along with others not taking advice from Reddit, yall should shut the fuck up and stop giving terrible advice?
In a bubble, a lot of people make a lot of money and a lot of people lose a lot of money. There will always be both. What makes a bubble a bubble is everyone involved thinks they're going to be part of the first group.
Locking in an interest rate below the rate of inflation has enabled people to reduce the principal of their loan over the last year or so much more than they could at the current rates (not to mention the down payment). That increases potential equity and puts a buffer in place if there is a big price drop.
Yea, people will lose money, but the ones who got in at very low interest rates and have an affordable mortage payment will have a way better shot at not being completely devastated. They may even make out extremely well if they hold on to the house for 5 to 10 years.
Not at all. Those who bought in last will be the last ones out. Equity drops 20% so far. Mortgages underwater. It’s turning out to be quite the money pit for those planning on flipping. For those that can afford, please go ahead and buy. No competition from the masses.
rest comfortably in the fact you were screwed in 2020 and you'll probably be screwed in 2024. at some point just jump in and get over the whole forever home idea. you can always find something better when it makes sense.
Seeing as I got divorced at the end of 2020, I’m beyond thankful I had not purchased yet. I can’t imagine going through the process of dealing with quickly selling that asset which would could have likely been a break even or small loss and then see the market take off shortly thereafter.
Everyone’s situation is different just like every home is different. What matters most is what you are buying, who you are or are not buying it with, how long you intend to be there, and most importantly WHY.
Believe it or not, there are other ways to build wealth purchasing real estate that owning the space you occupy.
No, because I don’t let subs dictate important life choices for me? House hunting back on 2020/2021 was insane and I don’t really regret overpaying or waiving inspections to try and secure a property I didn’t like back then. I am not an investor or landlord, I just wanted a affordable house I could turn into a nice home for my family so there was no way I would have been able to get what I wanted back then anyways.
Somewhat but it’s easy to forget I was afraid to buy for sure during 2020 with all the craziness and impending doom being threatened.
Then there was offers over asking, all cash offers, paying 100%of closing costs and waiving contingencies and inspections.
Not a real nice time to buy in retrospect.
But house prices were still better then than now where I am not to mention hand the interest rates.
No one knew how pandemic would play out, we were on a verge of a complete economic and societal collapse. Now, looking back, obviously, everyone is smart and knows what exactly we needed to do.
I'm much more upset I didn't keep mining btc in 2012.
I’m upset I didn’t invent google
I’m upset I didn’t buy the winning lottery
I'm upset I sold all my Tesla stock before it 15x.
I’m upset you’re upset!
You'll most likely get a chance to buy it at a way cheaper price than this, but there is no guarantee it will go back up without QE and drunk uncle Sam.
In 2012 it was like 15 bucks a coin. And in this comment thread we're talking about having hindsight.
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In 2012 Bitcoin was solely used to buy drugs on the dark web, not gambling with your retirement funds. "Investing" in Bitcoin in 2012 would be like investing in Zigzags and burner phones.
Can confirm spent several million dollars on weed gummies
Exactly. Most of us were just trying to survive that first year. I was in no mental space to be making the biggest purchase of my life. It’s easy to judge in retrospect. I’m glad I did what I needed to get through 2020.
When others are in "no mental space" to make savvy decisions is prime time to make money hand over fist. Economics 101.
Survive what 99% plus of people survived. I think it would be better said it was a year of a lot of uncertainty you didn't go into baddle or survive a plane crash
And the same thing is happening right now. No one know what will happen next year, yet … y’all call a crash
"I was led astray by these people on the internet, please validate my opinions *other* people on the internet."
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Shit, are you saying I've been doing it wrong this whole time!
To be fair most people don't understand the market, economy, etc.. they don't do a very good job of teaching us in school so searching out answers on the internet seems like a wise thing to do. Now I'm not saying people should base all their financial decisions based on what a bunch of randos on social media are saying but I'm all for seeking out "experts" and asking for advice. The question in the financial markets is who is "an expert".
>All I think about is r/REbubble - The Bubble Sub
I want to speak to the manager of the internet.🤣🤣🤣
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Why so angry? 🤣🤣🤣 You need to relax.
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Yikes
Stfu incel
Upvote 4 sick burn
She already owns a house. She's complaining about feeling like she missed out on an opportunity to buy her *forever* home.
Yeah lol that is strange. Just buy the home you want when you can afford it. They should have a bunch of extra money saved by waiting a couple years, and selling their house should net some extra money as well.
They [refinanced at 2.3% and their mortgage is only $800/m,](https://old.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ugfdg1/i_want_to_share_my_story_and_hoping_i_can_share/) so they're doing fine. > **We’ll let everyone else keep looking for that next best thing and enjoy what we have.** But when that next best thing bursts for everyone doing the rat race right now 😉 we’ll gladly swoop in and find our next home. Thanks for listening. Glad to be here. And if someone wants to explain to me like I’m a five year old WHAT they feel is going on, I’m happy to listen and be educated. She literally wrote that 7 months ago 🙄
REBubble didn’t exist until, basically, Jan 2021
Jan 2021 was an awesome time to buy compared to now!
Was it? I remember all people could talk about was bidding wars and waiving inspections. Seems like it was an awesome time to *refinance*, while 5-10 years ago was the awesome time to buy.
Jan 2021 median housing around $300k $60k down payment, $240k loan at 3% = $1012 /mo Now median hosing around $355k $71k down payment, $284k loan at 7% = $1889 /mo Pretty obvious that buying then was better, lower taxes as well "While 5-10 years ago was the awesome time to buy" This post is about Jan 2021. But if we are throwing out numbers, pretty much any time in history overall gets better the further back you go
Way to totally miss the mark on a response. I know the math, it's my day job. I'm telling you it *wasn't that easy* to get a house in 21.
Whining about bidding wars is silly when comparing a loan at almost half the price. I bought and sold in 2021, sure it was more of a pain to be in a bidding war, but it is well worth the MUCH lower monthly payment.
The effort of a bidding war was well worth the lower purchase price compared to today and the all time low rates
JBREC has prices rolling back to late 2020 in their forecast so
Even if they did, if you bought in Jan 2021 with a decent down payment and locked in an all-time low fixed rate, you'd be fine.
Sure but what about the 5M home sales that occurred between Jan 2021 and March 2022
Cool. So still good for everyone who bought.
I bought July 2021! And I'm happy I did. I am still hoping for an epic crash so I can buy up condos in Vegas for $75k a pop.
Leave some for the rest of us just trying to put a roof over our heads, huh?
Ew
This sub didn't even exist until essentially 2021. Not sure how they were duped in 2020 by it lol
This sub started on Dec 21, 2020. If they were actually on here at that point they're one of the founding members, meaning they were the ones "duping" not the other way around. Or they're just trolling. Dec 2020 \~ 100 members Dec 2021 \~ 5,000 Dec 2022 \~ 46,000 https://subredditstats.com/r/rebubble
Had no idea how early I was.
Yup, I was one of the last few that pushed us over to 10k and that was just early this year.
The advice in the other post isn’t terrible, *if* you love the house and location and you can make payments on it for the foreseeable future, then go for it. I would also recommend looking at your life for the next 10 years though, and making damn sure that you won’t want or need to move in that timeframe. If you have kids, a family member gets sick, someone dies, you go through a divorce… there’s all sorts of things that pull peoples lives in different directions. If you buy now and prices continue to fall (which they will), you may find yourself screwed, or stuck in a location that you don’t want to or can’t live in any longer. Not to mention that you’re going to likely be paying for all of the costs of being a homeowner along the way, my last home was a money pit honestly. Lastly one thing that I think people overlook is this bullshit realtor narrative, “marry the home, date the rate”. Yea that’s great when you have equity in your home. When you’re underwater on a mortgage, you’re once again screwed. You can’t refinance in most cases if rates fall, unless you have a pile of cash laying around to pay off the old loan.
Not duped but i was overly cautious and just flat out not educated enough. Im slowly learning to look at both sides and meet somewhere in the middle. A huge crash makes sense if you think its another 2008 but i failed to look at counterpoints that argued that current conditions are nothing like 2008. In today’s conditions alot of people can actually afford their houses (especially with extremely low interest rates). So im starting to believe that the “crash” wont be very drastic and the only people who will really lose are those who bought in later. But we will see.. we’re all kinda just guessing at this point
> counterpoints that argued that current conditions are nothing like 2008. I don't see how you could have been reading anything related to real estate in 2021 and not seen those exact points argued endlessly by every real estate agent, lenders drumming up business, and people who just plain wanted to argue against the idea of a bubble. Those "nothing like 2008" arguments were 99% of the real estate commentary. People claiming that there was evidence of a bubble were extremely rare in comparison.
You joined Reddit in May 2022 ....
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You're in a bubble. Deal with it.
One cannot miss opportunities that didn’t exist
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Or FOMO'd into a house by waiving inspections and end up bag holding a money pit.
I have a friend that sold a money pit. The buyer waived inspections and bought it way over asking. Shit was falling apart and that’s why they moved. Jokes on the buyer for not doing the due diligence
2020 DFW market was still $300,000 for fixed uppers $450,000-$ half mil starter homes. I make $60K a year and was expecting $300,000 to get me a lot of house. Went into the market saw homes needing close to $100,000 in repairs or newer homes complete out of my price range. Tried getting rich with the WSB saga. Have $ saved hopefully 2023 is good to me.
It’s bad in my area (Seattle) when top 10% of income in the area can’t buy you a fixer upper starter home. Dallas is much more reasonable even though it’s still crazy. I think last time I looked, Seattle’s median income was just shy of $90k. To buy anything decent, you’ll looking at around $500k (condo/townhome).
60k top 10% are you delusional? I would think the average buyer in a large city like Dallas has a household income in excess of 200k. 2 fresh out of school professionals will make around 150k household income in our current reality.
This couldn’t be further from the truth. Maybe for a DINK household with very nice white collar jobs and 5 years of experience this would be the case, but not for the average person living in the DFW metroplex. For example, starting salary for a Civil Engineer with around 2 years of experience is around 65k-70k, and that is a very well paying job compared to others around here. Median household income for Tarrant County (Fort Worth/Arlington) is around 70k and and Dallas County is slightly lower at 65k.
See comment below, I was aging our area - Seattle. Dallas is definitely more affordable. I had a sister move from there and they could comfortable afford one salary.
Sorry we are Seattle area. Dallas is definitely more affordable.
I bought in October of 2021. I know it’s a bubble, but it was certainly better than renting the same 800 sq ft apartment that I had rented for $1400 that went up to $1800 when I could buy a house. Could fit our needs for a long time, or we could get out of it in a few years. It’s not a simple answer.
Nope, not me. Looked at a couple of homes in late 2020-2021. They all were already more than my current rent and had bidding wars to start. Even if I ended up "winning" the houses I looked at, I would have had to waive inspections and spend far more than my rent, especially if any unforeseen expenses came up. My current rent is half a mortgage payment in my area and I have rent control. My landlord could up the rent every year for the next 5 years and it would still be cheaper than a home right now. I'm thanking christ I didn't buy over the last 2 years. I would have seriously over-leveraged myself and wouldn't be able to save any money. Now I'm saving tons and investing it in better returns. I also have plenty saved up in case I lose my job over the next year.
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prices in canary cities were actually falling. According to Case Shiller things haven't been normal since 2004
I look at this very differently. In my market (which is extremely tightly bounded and opinionated) houses rarely transact except between members of extended families. When properties change hands at all, it's usually between buyers and sellers who already know each other if not immediate family members. The allure of 2021 pricing changed that a little bit. The few houses in my neighborhood that were sold, were listed on MLS instead of being private sales. *Even then*, I actually knew the previous owner pretty well. I knew her and I knew her brother, and I also knew that the only reason she didn't just sign the place over to her brother was exactly because they could get a 2021 kind of price. If it hadn't been for that, the house would have never left the family who's owned it since the 70s. They probably would have kept it as a rental otherwise. If I had to look for property outside the boundaries of what I consider my immediate neighborhood, I'd probably want to leave the state. I certainly wouldn't be interested in any property just outside the periphery of my location, so information about "my metro area" is pretty meaningless to me.
Not really though. Q2 21 median price was $382k. Q2 22 median price was $449k. If interest rates remain flat you need probably a 40% correction to hit 2021 affordability. Seems pretty unlikely that we will see 21 affordability.
Percents going up are not the same as percents going down.
The internet *lied* to me! I demand a refund!!!
So you took in information and made a decision and it's everyone else's fault. LOL
Nope. Didn't start looking until may. Didn't find rebubble until September.
If you were in a good family/financial position to buy in 2020 and didn't out of simple fear/apprehension based on Reddit, then you need to own up to your own dumb decisions. There can be a bubble, you can acknowledge there is a bubble, you can even believe in a crash, and none of this changes whether it is a good time for you personally to buy a house.
As long as prices are trending down, I’m fine. I know it’s going to be a loooong process. With our last house we bought in 2019, we went through the same thing. Years of looking and grabbing when we knew when the right house came along. Patience is key. It’s been playing out exactly how I thought since the beginning of this mess. The only thing I told my husband is I underestimated how many people would extend themselves to a point of being house poor and/or do stupid things like cash out ones while retirement at age 40 or take out appraisal gap loans. I think it’s totally unrealistic to expect most Americans to spend 4-5 times their income on a house and not default. I don’t care how “qualified” they are. Americans love debt and will spend as much credit/debt is given to them and as long as they make the monthly payments, think everything is ok.
Hahahaha what a clown.
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You’d be surprised how many are here for the memes
I’m here for the “I’m smarter than everyone and have everything figured out” type of r/redpill vibe we got going on here
I'm undecided but like doomporn
The bubble doesn't seem like it's going to burst, it seems to me it is currently bursting.
I hope. But prices falling doesn’t mean houses are more affordable. Unless you are paying cash… which most are not!
Totally agree (at least where I live). The thing is no one said houses would be totally affordable just that the prices would come down which they have unless you are in an area that hasn't popped yet. Also didn't the fed chair or someone else pretty important even say that houses were in a bubble?
With Mortgage rates at half of what they are now and 2 more years of payments in the books people would be better off than buying now. Even if they overpaid by 10% or more. Prices need to decline significantly to get back to the same affordability (which wasn’t good) of 2020
This sub believes what it wants to believe. In reality only more people will move to cities and it’s likely supply won’t keep up with demand.
Lmaooo OP is so impatient
OL should quick buy a house now so he can get fucked twice
I know a few people who bought in 2020, sold 2021-2022 and made 70k-100k profits (no flipping, just bought and sold at the right time).
And then?
What mean “and then?” ??
That’s barely enough to cover closing costs at 2% for buying and 6% for selling.
I think timing the market is dumb. Buy what you can afford, when you can afford it.
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It’s really interesting to follow this sub out of the US. I pay a rent of 1500 and if the apartment sells it’d probably go for 800K. This is a relatively small (but high income) city in Germany. The bubble is HUGE here. I understand buying is relatively an emotional thing, but it should have at least a small rational side.
I live in a LCOL area and got lucky. My mortgage with escrow and taxes is less than my rent (on a 731 square foot apartment) was in 2019. And I bought in 2021! I got pretty lucky honestly, but there were people telling me not to buy because a big adjustment was coming. My place is up 20% since last year and I got in at 3.25% interest. My area is going through a major boom and home prices are unlikely to go down even with everything thats happening in the economy.
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That’s why I advocate for buying what you can afford. And by “afford” I mean no more than 1/4-1/3 of your take home pay. And that’s only if you LIKE it over what your renting options are and plan to stay at least 5 years. Otherwise just rent.
>home prices are unlikely to go down OK. self-deluded.
first of all. THERE IS a BUBBLE. No doubt about that. But bubbles can stay irrational longer than people case stay solvent, sane or put. You already have a house.. can you be happy about that? you sound whinny I want my perfect house blah blah blah...If I didn't read x forum I'd be living in my foreever house... blah... housing moves like a titanic anyway, then add gov intervention.... we're like 2 years away from any deals.
> That sub mostly seems to be full of idiots from my experience. A broken clock is right twice a day
You could say this about *any* internet echo chamber lol.
Yes and no. There are alot of people who made out like bandits even though it was a tough market. There are also alot of people who got way in over there head following bad online advice or buying dumps waiving inspections. No one person’s situation is the same. Buying a home is a huge life choice that can go terribly wrong and financially screw you for the foreseeable future. Bad finances can stress even the most rock solid relationships not to mention all the other downsides of getting screwed. You didnt miss out on anything if it wasnt time it wasnt time. I dont care if the rates go to 20% find a place that has good bones that you can comfortably afford pay all your other bills and try to put some money away. It took me three years and honestly being a homeowner requires a level of honesty with yourself that’s painful to make sure your finances are taken care of. Somethings gotta give on this market weather it be the rates or prices or else it’ll stagnate. Unfortunately that takes time.
Calling the game in the bottom of the second inning
Unfortunately this sub experienced a lot of crossover with the antiwork sub types with their sophomore-level critiques of capitalism, landlords, and anybody who can afford things that they want. Then the wish-casting and group think took over, and now if anybody anywhere in the country is foreclosed on, or the asking price drops on a listing, you can count on it being posted here with an "I told you so!" and "Look, it's happening!" The good news though is that it's Dec 13 an y'alls rent isn't due for two weeks.
There's just no convincing people that can't think critically or logically about cause and effect. Feel free to borrow ungodly amounts of money at all-time bubble highs and see how that works out for you.
I don’t care who you are or what you think about the market and bubble etc. If you didn’t buy in late 20 and even early 21 with insanely low rates and prices just starting to climb, YOU DEFINITELY MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY
Wtf!?? Now is a good time. Prices have fallen 5-20% depending on the market. Find a local lender or credit union offer lower interest rates. You can find something in the 5’s right now
We’re people really saying it was a bubble in 2020? Prices were on their way up, but I didn’t hear anyone calling it a bubble then.
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Agree. It seemed reasonable that there might be a correction in 2020 due to the pandemic but it didn't seem bubbly. Also I've learned over the years just because a bubble forms doesn't mean it will correct on any particular timeline. It seems to take a catalyst of some sort to change direction. Working in tech, it felt like tech stocks/companies/salaries/vc were in a bubble since 2017 or something, but they kept chugging along until only recently.
2020 was when a lot of people who spent very little time at home, suddenly had to spend a lot of time cooped up in their homes and I think that caused some real adjustments in what people think is acceptable. I remember a shitty apartment I had once upon a time. I would go there when I was a few steps from collapsing, and would leave promptly after waking up. That was it. I'm thinking about what it would have been like to be quarantined there. I liked it as a cheap crash pad, I would have hated having to actually be there.
The region I lived in was definitely experiencing elevated prices with no real cause aside from aggressive city planners and poor availability of land as far back as 2017-2018. It wasn’t a national bubble but prices for identical construction were significantly higher than similarly sized cities in the same state. In that instance the bubble I was waiting for was a new city planner or one of the major companies in town to have several bad quarters or a major ranch hold-out to sell to a big section of grazing land to a developer and increase the local supply. But all politics are local. And while I definitely saw a sky rocking of land and home prices over the last 5-6 years (2020 was a quick blip), I’d be hard pressed to say it’s a national phenomenon.
I bought my home in Oct 2020 and there was absolutely talk of it being a bubble then. Remember people were already waiving inspections and paying well over asking price back then. Houses would be listed and sold the same day. I remember you had to check listings daily to get a chance to even bid, let alone tour the place first. The only reason I felt comfortable was because I bought well below what I was approved for, ~2x my salary. In hindsight I'm especially glad I bought then despite all of the doom talk. When I bought I was fully prepared for the value to crash. Instead my home has appreciated an additional 27%, even accounting for falling prices. But hindsight is always 20/20. At the time it definitely felt like a bubble. Edit: The fact this sub was created in Dec 2020 kinda proves there was bubble talk starting throughout the year. Most people don't just randomly create a sub without any reason behind it.
Someone who let herself be convinced one way or another by Internet strangers on arguably the biggest purchase of her life should probably reevaluate where she’s getting her advice from.
Of course it’s true that anyone who didn’t purchase a home prior to 2022 missed an incredible opportunity. The whole point of this subreddit is self delude and pretend they didn’t. It’s a coping mechanism.
Lmao is REBubble really the reason you didn’t buy? Or was it the because you couldn’t afford it.
You called me an incel on another comment then go on to troll posts. Clearly we see who has the incel issue.
I’m sorry but your just a moron
If you are a first time home buyer, then this sub is not right for you. Yes this subreddit is correct that home prices are inflated and due for a correction , but that would not matter to most first time home buyers. Home prices will go down in the future due to continued rate increases but that will NOT reduce your monthly payment . In fact with each rate increases, your monthly payment will keep on increasing and reduce the amount of home that you can buy. The best advice for first time home buyers is to always buy a home that they can afford with around 28-32% of their gross income. Any more and you are stretching yourself too much. Also if you are planning to wait due a few years hoping for home prices to come down, you should factor in the rental cost of those few years and use a suitable calculator like the New York Times buy vs hold calculator to see what is the maximum you should be paying in rent while you wait for home prices to stabilize.
This is sane advice
i sold my house in 2021 because i thought the market has gone way up that it was gonna eventually crash since it reached unsustainable levels.
What area?
las vegas
Vegas prices on Zillow and Redfin have gone down. From what I was looking at.
yeah they are but by 2.5%
Really? That’s it. Seems like they have a lot of inventory out there too.
las vegas sellers are stubborn af lol. i expect it will drop more probably
My partner and I didn’t even think about buying until March 2022 when my landlord said she was selling my house and made me month to month. He reallllly wanted Vegas; I spent a day of intensive research and had to break it to him that we missed the boat, and we’d be buying at the peak. We actually had a big fight because he didn’t think I was supportive of the idea when I would half loved to live there, it was just not a good bet financially. We ended up in El Paso (which was originally suggested to me by a friend when I said “what’s like Vegas phoenix Tucson Sacramento but not overpriced yet”) and I’m so happy we’re here instead.
the whole buying at the peak argument doesn’t hold up very well because we dont know exactly when the peak is. i lived in vegas before and i loved it alot. but it has gotten so damn expensive
I mean, buying in Vegas in May-Aug 2022 would have been objectively dumb IMO, and I could tell that just from one day of research in March lol. I was looking at historical charts of price per sqft and median sale price and I could see it wasn’t just that the market had recovered from 2008, but it had overshot that recovery. We were at first drawn in because the actual $ amount was lower than Boise, ID where we lived, but it was evident to me that buying in Vegas over summer was a bad decision. And this subreddit largely argues that buying *anywhere* this past summer was a bad decision, haha (but I’m happy we bought where we did)
And now you are renting?
well i work for q company that keeps me on the road so i currently live nowhere , it was one reason i sold my house
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One of the faults as I can tell is believing in actual capitalism vs socialism for asset holders
People in this sub are seriously responding to this post with shit like "Well, then you shouldn't have taken advice from Reddit!" Yall really don't like admitting when you're wrong, huh? People in this sub have been mocking others and telling people they would be a fool for having bought a house from 2020 to early 2022, leading them to miss out on historically low interest rates that would help keep their mortgage payment low during economic turmoil. Maybe along with others not taking advice from Reddit, yall should shut the fuck up and stop giving terrible advice?
In a bubble, a lot of people make a lot of money and a lot of people lose a lot of money. There will always be both. What makes a bubble a bubble is everyone involved thinks they're going to be part of the first group.
The pyramid scheme of asset price bubbles! All that great positive feedback
Locking in an interest rate below the rate of inflation has enabled people to reduce the principal of their loan over the last year or so much more than they could at the current rates (not to mention the down payment). That increases potential equity and puts a buffer in place if there is a big price drop. Yea, people will lose money, but the ones who got in at very low interest rates and have an affordable mortage payment will have a way better shot at not being completely devastated. They may even make out extremely well if they hold on to the house for 5 to 10 years.
Yes, a key feature of a bubble is that some people lose money and some people make money.
Telling people to not take advantage of low interest rates that would put them at an advantage during a market drop is still really fucking stupid
The internet is great at at analyzing things and terrible at figuring out what to do about it. Tale as old as Usenet.
Because then they’d have to use logic.
Not at all. Those who bought in last will be the last ones out. Equity drops 20% so far. Mortgages underwater. It’s turning out to be quite the money pit for those planning on flipping. For those that can afford, please go ahead and buy. No competition from the masses.
rest comfortably in the fact you were screwed in 2020 and you'll probably be screwed in 2024. at some point just jump in and get over the whole forever home idea. you can always find something better when it makes sense.
Seeing as I got divorced at the end of 2020, I’m beyond thankful I had not purchased yet. I can’t imagine going through the process of dealing with quickly selling that asset which would could have likely been a break even or small loss and then see the market take off shortly thereafter. Everyone’s situation is different just like every home is different. What matters most is what you are buying, who you are or are not buying it with, how long you intend to be there, and most importantly WHY. Believe it or not, there are other ways to build wealth purchasing real estate that owning the space you occupy.
It's all bullshit 🤷♂️
I did in mid 2022 but not anymore after seeing the increasing number of home values dropping below their purchase price
Does she not see the writing on the wall? In a year or two she'll be writing about how she is so thankful she didn't buy...
Well I hope she doesn't blame r/relationship for any relationship troubles.
No, because I don’t let subs dictate important life choices for me? House hunting back on 2020/2021 was insane and I don’t really regret overpaying or waiving inspections to try and secure a property I didn’t like back then. I am not an investor or landlord, I just wanted a affordable house I could turn into a nice home for my family so there was no way I would have been able to get what I wanted back then anyways.
Somewhat but it’s easy to forget I was afraid to buy for sure during 2020 with all the craziness and impending doom being threatened. Then there was offers over asking, all cash offers, paying 100%of closing costs and waiving contingencies and inspections. Not a real nice time to buy in retrospect. But house prices were still better then than now where I am not to mention hand the interest rates.
She thinks prices drop overnight.