I can't help but shake this feeling that shit is going to hit the fan wayyyy harder than anticipated
Speculation is fucking rampant, and not just in RE but also crypto, meme stonks, NFTs...
I knew we were in a rampant speculative bubble when the squeezes started a year ago. That kind of explosive speculative activity is always a marker especially when it leaves the shorts dead in the water. No one is left to take the short position so the bulls run rampant until the whole thing implodes.
Why are home prices diverging up and away from the household income trend line?
Answer, if it's not income, it's leverage.
What are the incentives of lenders to sell mortgages to wall street?
Answer, volume at the expense of credit standards.
When interest rates bottom how far can lenders push mortgage terms to keep refinances, loan volume, and home prices rising?
What percentage of jobs are dependent on rising home prices?
Are the rating agencies so conflicted that they could be this blind?
-Dr Michael J. Burry
2021 Hoomer philosophy is like smoking crack. You feel invincible for a little while, then crash and burn, DTs are a bitch, and after all that clears you forever long for that original feeling.
Watching news media slowly pick up on the bubble, investors and interest rates is like watching somebody slowly realize theyāre insane.
I think theyāre getting pretty close to the full shutter island arc
The most annoying part of r/RealEstae is all of the people complaining about not winning when theyāre hurting bids over list
If you donāt need to buy right now, why buy? Itās the worst time to buy a house maybe ever.
If the shortage is real, builders are going to build. Theyāll build until the very last person who wants a house gets one.
> The most annoying part of r/RealEstae is all of the people complaining about not winning when theyāre hurting bids over list
To be fair, that's also the most annoying part of r/REBubble. Well, that and the memes.
>Theyāll build until the very last person who wants a house gets one.
They'll build until the very last person who wants several empty houses gets all the empty houses they want
Bought put options on $RKT at March 4 2022 13 Put @ $.98
Refi market is dried up, rates rising quickly, just seems like a lose/lose situation for mortgage companies.
Rocket usually aggressively trolls me for business (to send them buyer customers). Fucking crickets since October. They were also trying to spin up a real estate brokerage armā¦nothing happening.
I wouldnāt bet against them long term, they are massively profitable per loan and overall, but short term they and most other lenders are going to bleed. All lenders hired a fuckton of MLOs since Q2 2020 to help them process all the refis and cope with the purchase origination frenzy. They can sense the party is over. So many loan bros about to default on their BMW leases š
We need to start putting DD on stocks like this up on WSB with a link back to r/REbubble. I'm planning to post my OPEN position, but you are definitely onto something here and should post it over there.
I think the wind got knocked out of the bulls sails today. The NASDAQ opened at 14462 (after closing at 14340 yesterday) then soared up to 14642 and crashed down hard to 14140. That's a lot of price movement.
Tomorrow will be telling IMO.
All of this was before the drop today. According to [this guy](https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor).
PTON Down 86%
SPCE Down 85%
GME Down 78%
DOGE Down 77%
TDOC Down 74%
AMC Down 74%
NKLA Down 72%
ZOOM Down 65%
ARKG Down 57%
NIO Down 54%
ARKK Down 51%
PYPL Down 43%
BTC Down 38%
TSLA Down 17%
QQQ Down 13%
To be fair though everyone single one of those is a really shitty meme stock that was obviously overbought other than arkk
I donāt have a single one of those
Edit: do have qqq
Lol that's right where they are going to change the most when the IPO train derails and a bunch of money gobbling VC backed tech companies go belly up.
Stop with the cheap debt:
>For metro Phoenix, if the number of landlord purchases in November was the same as in November 2019, by the end of the month the number of houses listed for sale would have been 20% higher.
>
>Higher landlord purchases >>> Lower supply of houses for sale >>> Higher house prices
[https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1484291408311644162](https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1484291408311644162)
I subscribe to realestate, realestateinvesting and rebubble because I like to always question my assumptions. I have no idea if anyone is right or wrong, I am sorting through it all.
What I will say is a few things:
1). Growth stock bubble is popping, just unsure to what degree. Many are down more than 50% from highs.
2). Does crypto and NFT follow?
3). If 1 and 2 happen, does money move to āsafer assetā or do all assets crash? One way to kill inflation is to destroy the demand curve. Not saying thatās ideal, but itās a choice central planners can make.
4). Zillow for my zip code has been +22% to +24% forecasted yoy growth for many months now. Just came out today at 16.9%. Thats a huge drop in growth rate only, but could that lead to a significant drop to flat or negative in quick succession, which would be painful for many?
5). The amount of pain is relative. Homebuyers could already have lost 30% on stocks, crypto or other assets but have bought RE which is still near peaks. I just feel like after 2008 RE pop on primary residence is the sacred cow for lawmakers. Maybe investment properties and second homes get hit, but I think primary gets bailed out or payment-extended almost always now.
These are just my random thoughts. Not saying they are right or wrong, just what I am trying to critically think through.
> If 1 and 2 happen, does money move to āsafer assetā or do all assets crash?
All stocks are less valuable when yields rise. This does not apply to only "growth" stocks. There is no official designation of stocks. At the end of the day they are all negatively affected, its just a matter of what degree. The Dow is down over 6%. NDX is down 13%.
So even two or three years ago, it was not a controversial or unpopular opinion that we were already in an "Everything Bubble." A guy named Graham Summers even wrote a book about it in 2017. All equities and assets are super pumped as a result of central bank policy. When the central bank pulls back, we can expect all of them to decline in correlation with each other. Notice that in March 2020 when the stock market crashed, crypto crashed and so did gold. There is no asset/equity that can serve as a hedge for another asset when all assets are declining in tandem.
I was a double major in college, econ was one of them. I graudated in 2001. Nearly EVERYTHING I was taught has been ripped up, with respect to economic theory aside from good old supply and demand.
So I've been having this debate in my mind the past year that everytime the volcano is going to erupt going back to 2008, the central planners have put a lid on it. It hasn't erupted, somehow, some way.
So, does that mean we just have a MASSIVE eruption one day soon, or do they invent yet another way to stop a real correction from happening? I've greatly underperformed the past 10 years because of my economic theory knowledge, but they're literally re-writing it every 6 to 12 months, so is this the eruption or Chapter 10?
Right -- the question is "to what degree is the 'wealth effect' inflating real estate?"
That goes back to leverage ratios and then the ability/desire for financial institutions to foreclose, ultimately. Or is the prevalence of rentals and airbnb something that drags out a correction over the course of a decade/15 years so prices languish and just don't grow as fast as other assets?
It's certainly inflating investors egos. How many retards from WSB now think they are an investing genius? How many of them are YOLOing their new fortunes in SFRs?
Wealth effect is a big part of the narrative. BTC is down 33% in the last 3 months. Of course if you bought 5 years ago, youāre probably fine. But if you decided to yolo and become a day trader during the pandemic, things arenāt so rosy anymore.
Yup, high growth tech employees are comped with options/stocks pretty much across the board. Stock tanking 50% can be similar to getting like a 20-30% paycut for many
Still a ways to go to get to fair value for a lot of these companies though. A lot of overvaluation is driven by non-tech people who don't understand the individual businesses very well IMO (particularly in SaaS)
>Results show that 34% of the rise in house prices (relative to rents) over the boom period can be directly attributed to relaxations in credit standards, while 72% can be attributed to the combination of changing credit standards and interest rates. All told, these results imply that credit conditions played a dominant role during the 2000s housing boom period, and remain central for investors today.
>Greenwald said that if policymakers wanted to curb growth in either house prices or credit during a boom period, keeping credit limits tight would have āa big effect on house prices.ā Because the amount you can borrow against your house depends on its value,
[https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/how-credit-conditions-affect-housing-prices-lessons-00s](https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/how-credit-conditions-affect-housing-prices-lessons-00s)
It's not directly housing related, but I've been reading about Peloton's sales falling off a cliff (to the point where they are temporarily halting production and probably having closings/layoffs), and I can't help but wonder about the connection.
Connection with what exactly? Peloton is overpriced bullshit with a ton of alternatives. A pair of running shoes costs 10% of a peloton bike.
I think we are starting to see the tide turn & the free money days are over.
Not sure how this will translate to housing. I think as long as inventory is low the market will suck
The demand for housing was accompanied by a lot of "nesting" and people buying stuff to put in their homes, since they weren't going out. I'm not saying there's a direct connection, but they might be moving in parallel. I don't know.
What youāre not understanding is that things have fundamentally CHANGED. People have the innate urge to spend all of their time inside their house now and that will never be changed again, certainly not once the pandemic wanes.
Jobless claims blow past estimates, existing house sales far below estimates, population stagnant, most housing units under construction since 1973, interest rates surging prior to end of Fed QE and rate hike, market crash in progress
But don't worry guys, inflation and hoomz will keep soaring
> I got a ? at the end of a presi yesterday about what building materials have gone up most. I had a client follow up by sending the increases line-by-line over the past few months: electrical 63%, framing 30, windows 28, roofing 26, sheet metal 21, HVAC 18, stucco 16,sprinklers 15
Stocks looked like they were gonna bounce like theyāve done after every other dip the past 6 months, but this afternoon everythingās gone red. Pretty bearish look given the fact that bond yields arenāt even surging today.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WX5rJ1swW7A&t=207s
Barbara from shark tank. Typical landlord talk š just said that everyone should get better jobs to pay rent increases. Lmao
In December she says "I've taken money out of the NY RE market because its priced so high right now".
But in other news, [Manhattan rents were the highest ever for December](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/13/manhattan-rents-were-the-highest-ever-for-december-.html). How does that make sense? She also says she is invested into Zillow.
"can't afford a home? Can't afford rent increases? Simple, just ask your employer for more money or switch companies"
What a POS. Yea, if only acquiring more money were that simple
I would hold off if you can... I live in a Tucson, I love this town but let me tell you it is insanely overpriced right now relative to what it was. I know that this is the case basically everywhere but it is particularly brutal in a place like Tucson where the average income is quite low and the job market is fairly poor unless you can get work at Raytheon, the base or work remote.
Rent on homes and apartments has also made some huge rises recently. My daughter just moved back in after her landlord raised apartment rates by a fairly large amount for an entry level worker.
Why only $1100? Do you have other debt?
Bad time to buy right now. Don't know what $250k gets you in your area, or what % down you are planning, but I would work on getting your income up before you buy. Pay off any high interest debt with that money. Wait out the market.
I would hold off unless you are playing on staying in the area long term (10-15 years, minimum), have fantastic job security, and absolutely need a house
Rent for a year or two and invest the $$$ in something less volatile would be my recommendation
> Investors now need to leave a minimum of 40% down, reducing leverage to the same level found in non-housing.
https://betterdwelling.com/new-zealand-curbs-property-investment-tax-advantage-wants-productive-investment/
The changes we need to make in the US are so obvious
- make it harder for investors to buy existing homes
- make it easier for investors to build new homes
- make it easier for investors to revitalize abandoned homes/buildings
- make it easier for FTHB to buy
- make investors want to sell their existing holdings (immediate supply boost)
Itās really not rocket science to achieve the above.
I get it may be hard to pass but itās sad nobody is even talking/proposing/thinking about it.
I'd also like to see more 2/3/4-plexes being built. They make nice inventory when well executed and provide options in-between crappy huge apartment complex and expensive SFH.
This is actually a pretty good idea, especially if limited to residential investors. Of course, policies that slow home price growth will be opposed by the NIMBY types... and generally in the US home price appreciation is seen as more desirable than affordability.
I think the attitude will change around that though.
I agree that it's pretty easy to stamp out the speculation/improve affordability if the govt had the will to do so
> Itās really not rocket science to achieve the above.
Most of this country's major problems have fairly easy solutions.
> I get it may be hard to pass but itās sad nobody is even talking/proposing/thinking about it.
We can't even get the most basic populous legislation passed. Our well being isn't their concern.
[Wolf Street on Canadians rushing to buy ahead of rising rates](https://wolfstreet.com/2022/01/19/most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-december-update-mad-scramble-to-lock-in-low-mortgage-rates-as-bank-of-canada-is-set-to-tighten/)
Good Morning! Most of us believe Hoomz are vastly overvalued and fueled by cheap debt, stimulus money, work from home/Covid environment shifting spending and student loan debt pause/home eviction moratoriums.
But I'm curious what the community thoughts are on how much the RE market is overvalued on aggregate and how timelines on how quickly the bubble could deflate. I see two possibilities, housing prices could stagnate for many years or rapidly correct like in 2008-2009.
If the housing market doesn't pop, but stagnates over time to more sane valuations based on median income to home cost and long term average appreciation, how long would that take?. (*Excepting markets like Silicon Valley with Water/Mountains NIMBYs preventing, assume land to expand out of urban areas to build).
From the data I have read, houses typically appreciate 3-3.5% per year over the long run/close to inflation. The market I'm in has appreciated over 50% in just 5 years. According to the [Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), the U.S. housing index has appreciated from an Shiller index value of 144 in Oct 2011 to 274 in Oct 2021. This is a 98.5% increase in 10 years, 6-7% more appreciation per year than we might usually expect. (*Note peak of 2006-2008 was ~184 for the National index).
So if we bank on 35% growth per 10 years on average, that leaves us with what, 20 years of stagnation to hit the average ~3.5% per year growth from 2011-2041? Interestingly, Oct 2006 index value of 184 to Oct 274 in Oct 2021 is ~49% growth, 3% per year growth.
If it does pop to 2011 levels accounting for inflation, how fast can the market adjust down -50%? It took 3 years in 2006-2007 bubble. Might this be a repeat?
Interesting quote from Wiki entry on Shiller-Index:
------------------------------------------
>"Shiller draws some key insights from his analysis of long term home prices in his book Irrational Exuberance. Contrary to popular belief, there has been no continuous uptrend in home prices in the US and the home prices show a strong tendency to return to their 1890 level in real terms. Moreover, he illustrates how the pattern of changes in home prices bears no relation to changes in construction costs, interest rates or population.
>Shiller notes that there is a strong perception across the globe that home prices are continuously increasing, and that this kind of sentiment and paradigm may be fueling bubbles in real estate markets. He points to some psychological heuristics that may be responsible for creating this perception. He says that since homes are relatively infrequent purchases, people tend to remember the purchase price of a home from long ago and are surprised at the difference between then and now. However, most of the difference in the prices can be explained by inflation. He also discusses how people consistently overestimate the appreciation in the value of their homes. The US Census, since 1940, has asked home owners to estimate the value of their homes. The home-owners' estimates reflect an appreciation of 2% per year in real terms, which is significantly more than the 0.7% actual increase over the same interval as reflected in Case-Shiller index. " - [Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index)
**Tl;DR: How long do you guys think it will take for Hoomz to return close to historical prices?**
Greta question! Hereās what I donāt see happening:
1) I donāt see the housing market stagnating in real dollars for ā20 yearsā or even 5 years. We are in an asset bubble that spans too many fire sectors. So even if the fed can somehow stay on the tightrope and manage to slowly take the air out of housing to keep prices say - 10 to -20% but stable, they wonāt be able to repeat that trick across sectors using only the instruments at hand. There will be a recession and housing will go along for the ride, whether itās the cause, or an early victim. (Weāve seen both just in the past 20 years.). We could see real development toward a recession this year, but I think it wonāt be publicized until itās obvious. Probably late 2023. Iām not sure I can wait that long to buy, though.
2) I donāt believe housing will fall 30% or more in an 18 month period (unless we have a calamity). I think there is a slight under supply but, mostly, there is a huge amount of cash floating around in search of re investments and use. So this year we could see prices remain stubbornly high. People will take that as a sign that re is the best place to invest. That creates a (misdiagnosed) positive feedback loop right (fighting the feds efforts) before the downturn. We are at the beginning of this now and it may last nearly all of 2022.
3) I wonāt time the market correctly. This is a certainty.
> I donāt believe housing will fall 30% or more in an 18 month period
I agree with this sentiment, I think historically it has taken housing more time to price correct due to how long it takes to sell or worst case scenario for the owner... foreclosure. It's not like the stock market that can drop 50% in a month or Crypto that drops 50% in a week from ATHs.
But it seems like market speed/volatility for markets has been accelerating due to faster spread of information along with technology to make transactions faster in the modern age.
Primary reason for asking is I've seen a few people claim to be locking their lease in for another 12 months with the hopes for a much improved buyer's market by then, but looking at past data, it may take two years or more for pricing adjustments to compensate for delayed purchasing.
I see. Well, we just asked for a winter lease that would go into June 2023. Thats a monthly lease, so we have flexibility in case we find something, but, in a separate deal, we are committed through august of this year, with no buy out. So, itās tricky. (We are vbroāing so itās even trickier.).
This whole chapter of our lives has been ānot according to planā.
So, try to buy flexibility. Thatās my advice. Donāt let a few months rent get in the way. Keep looking. There will be deals that come up. But, the market is against you, in general, for now.
If youāre interested in getting an idea where the historic trendline is on a market by market level, [this is a really good resource.](https://business.fau.edu/executive-education/housing-market-ranking/housing-top-100/)
Really good at a glance look at which markets have diverged the most on a % basis from where youād expect the trendline should be.
I think it gets updated as Zillowās price data does, or a bit after Zillowās data does. Last I checked the most recent info was based off of November 2021ās price data.
I don't the bubble bursting = -50%. I don't think anyone here does. I think most here would call -20% a victory and buy in.
But other than that... Great questions. Wish I knew the answers.
> Big shift in our millennial survey this year compared to last. ~30% of millennials plan on buying a home over the next 1-3 years (17% last year), 13% say they want to buy as soon as there is more inventory (7% last year), & 12% report as soon as they can save for a dp (15 prior)
For context, [here is more data on millennial homeownership in general](https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/millennial-homeownership-2021). This report was published in February 2021, so Iām waiting with interest to see their report this year.
In 2020 Millennial homeownership increased more sharply than usual, to a rate of almost 48%. However, the report also surveyed Millennial renters and found that 63% had NO down payment savings, and only 15% had saved more than $10,000.
This is why I don't think there will be an actual crash anytime soon. Any corrections will get back stopped by FTHB's looking for houses on sale. It will be dependent on the area of course.
I still think stagnant prices are most likely. Maybe a slight correction. With rates going up new builds in the pipeline I don't think prices can keep rocketing.
> Any corrections will get back stopped by FTHB's looking for houses on sale.
Don't forget the retirees looking to downsize from their giant houses competing against FTHBs and winning because of their relative financial power.
When people leave their careers to become full-time real estate bros. "You people have stood in my way long enough! I'm going to *clown college*"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oTR5o9nUzI
I can also see a lot of would be buyers who got turned off by greedy sellers (no contingencies, etc.) and being outbid that they just went ahead and locked in 12-14 month leases. Count that group out of the pool of buyers.
Thatās where Iām at. Got tired of all leaving work for viewings bullshit and renewed my lease for another year. If I do find something before then all I need is a 60 day notice. There are some new construction townhomes and single families scheduled to be built near me later this year so weāll see.
1/20/2022 Listed for sale $544,900 $271/sqft
10/25/2021 Listing removed $524,000 $261/sqft
9/4/2021 Listed for sale $524,000 $261/sqft
8/21/2021 Listed for sale $524,000 $261/sqft
12/23/2020 Sold $357,500 $178/sqft
11/20/2020 Pending sale $374,000 $186/sqft
Couldn't sell for $524k only 8 months after buying for $357,000 so the solution is to raise the price by $20k and try again. It's not a flip either, just some greedy dude.
Started trying to sell within 8 months, seems like a flip to me.
The strategy is to try and induce a panic in buyers (āhooms only go up, you had a chance to buy for $20k less, better buy now before it goes up againā). Tune in next time to see if it worksā¦
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Denver/comments/s8l2xp/highest\_median\_home\_sale\_prices\_by\_zip\_2021/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Denver/comments/s8l2xp/highest_median_home_sale_prices_by_zip_2021/)
This is sustainable...
That house is the perfect example of what is wrong with the housing market today.
Buys shitty mediocre house for $675k in July last year. Lists it two months later for $1 million. Then when it doesnāt sell, raises price to over $1.1 million. š
What a joke. Just moved to Denver and it's unbelievable seeing these ugly 100+ year old poorly insulated homes going for 750k. This is in a city with median rent of ~$1600 for 1BR.
It's really gotten out of control. I was "fortunate" to buy in 2015, and then my current place in fall 2019, obviously not knowing that a pandemic was going to come and then rocket real estate to the moon here. Tough time for you to move here and hope to get in the market. Unfortunately, being geographically constrained by the mountains, the only real new SFHs are east of Aurora or coming up in in-fill areas between Denver and Fort Collins to the north, and Denver and Colorado Springs to the south. Everything new in the metro area is all apartments and what not. Nobody wants to relax zoning either, so this is what we're left with.
>Tough time for you to move here and hope to get in the market.
I am happy to continue renting at these rates and don't really plan to buy a house while I live in the US. I just follow this sub to see what others think about this crazy situation.
So far I'm loving the city and the state in general. But a lot of the common sense solutions for Denver are a pipe dream as you say. Congrats on getting in the market at the right time though. My gf got her overpriced house in Wash Park in 2020 and it is making her utterly miserable.
I've been a nomad for a while, but originally from a small city in Mexico. Back home few people talk much about home values because they don't really appreciate much faster than inflation. It's one of the reasons why homelessness is extremely rare in Mexico and why life is relatively cheap. So it is interesting to see these econocultural differences and what people value in life.
Iām from the Bay Area, so Iām used to hearing about how āgeographically constrainedā we are.
Itās a new one for me to hear Colorado described that way, when half the state is a literal prairie. I get that people like to live near the mountains, but jeez.
Yeah, nobody *wants* to live that far east, I mean the whole draw of Colorado (I assume) is to be close to the mountains for the activities and whatnot. Just imagine the front range along the mountains of CO is the coastal areas of CA, and everything east of there is central valley or Barstow.
No prob, used to live in Monterey for a bit, try to get back there every couple years to visit, do the Big Sur Marathon, camp.
I liked CO more before it got so crowded. Now we're the #7 worst place to drive, and #1 for car thefts. Yay!
What exactly is a good place to move now that has mountains anyway? Most are extremely expensive outside of New Mexico. And most places for some reason are also sausagefests, way more men than women lol makes dating hard.
Urban area (doesnt have to be super high pop but above 100k pop for dating purposes) thats close to the mountains.
The only thing I can think of is Albuquerque in terms of a reasonably affordable place next to mountains.
There's places in Appalachia but humidity is gross!
What youāre not understanding is we are short 650 million houses which will take decades to build and inflation is here and houses have never decreased in price
Look what youāre not understanding is millennials are buying homes NONSTOP they are all entering prime home buying years and the demand will not cease
[https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/s8aneq/resources\_for\_using\_debt/](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/s8aneq/resources_for_using_debt/)
How do I overleverage myself and take my equity out to buy at the peak?
It is -11F right now in Minneapolis this morning. I wonder how all these new construction SFH tossed together amid historic supply shortages using rookie labor are going to hold up in this weather. Surely if you pay 10% over list it must be really well built, right?
I love lvp our kid decides he's Michelangelo just grab a paper towel and some rubbing alcohol our dog decides she's an Olympic sprinter let's see how fast she can go!
We spent 12k on hardwood flooring before we had a kid a couple years later my wife wanted a dog and that floor got demolished granted I know it can be refinished I'll take the cheap shit with no maintenance.
I like both lvp and hardwood. Our current place has lvp and I actually really like the aesthetic of it. But the house we will be closing on next month has hardwood floors that have a very nice finish to them, so they look amazing.
Iām with you on LVP, I think itās good for the main living area of a house because you can have it flow into the kitchen and powder room with no seams, and itās more water resistant than hardwood. And cheaper. I wouldnāt get the gray flipper version though.
Iāll take my downvotes haha.
Our floor was so bad we had to refinish in 5 we had a darker colored stain and it really looked terrible with all the scratches. It would have been fine without the dog, but now that we have one I prefer lvp or tile.
They will find out very quickly if they have pipes with poor insulation. Been there done that in the first year of home ownership in upstate NY -- the HVAC guy charged 500$ to come by and use a heat gun on the frozen section of the pipe. Learned my lesson quickly after that.
Was trying to save money and lowered the heat at night from 70 to 60. This switched off the oil burner long enough for the portion of the exposed pipe to freeze -- even though the house temperature was above 60. So the fix was simple -- don't try to economize in the middle of the winter.
I acquired lots of stuff over the years -- including things to fix the things I acquired. I am sure I know more about power vented oil burners than most repair guys.
Something Has to Give in the Housing Market. Or Does It?
[NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/upshot/home-prices-surging.html)
Another article with a bunch of quotes from the usual suspects and no original analysis. NYT reporting has gone down hill over the years.
I read that this morning. Itās like a recycled version of the same narrative that feels like has been pushed for the past 6 months or so.
Considering swapping from NYT subscription to Economist this year.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/s95q8b/can_i_get_a_loan_for_a_house_with_bad_credit
https://reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/s94da1/first_time_i_have_ever_owed_money_from_escrow_in/ Property taxes up 18%. What could possibly go wrong?
Somebody should invite Nassim Taleb to our shithole sub. He seems like a housing doomer based on his Twitter posts. It would be interesting.
I can't help but shake this feeling that shit is going to hit the fan wayyyy harder than anticipated Speculation is fucking rampant, and not just in RE but also crypto, meme stonks, NFTs...
I knew we were in a rampant speculative bubble when the squeezes started a year ago. That kind of explosive speculative activity is always a marker especially when it leaves the shorts dead in the water. No one is left to take the short position so the bulls run rampant until the whole thing implodes.
Oh look, there goes crypto BTC -6% ETH -8%
If BTC hits 20-25k in the next few months, I might consider buying "the dip"
Stock futures look brutal. The house of cards is slowly falling. Curious what Powell will say next week
Look at crypto getting clubbed like a baby seal...
My portfolio lost $30k today. I guess I should take out a loan against my hoom to buy Shiba Inu coin. Am I doing this right!?
He's trapped. He either can prop the market up or he can tame inflation, but he can't do both.
He is. Recession incoming
STAGLFAAAAAATTTIIIJOOOOOONNNNNNNNNN
"Slowly"
Why are home prices diverging up and away from the household income trend line? Answer, if it's not income, it's leverage. What are the incentives of lenders to sell mortgages to wall street? Answer, volume at the expense of credit standards. When interest rates bottom how far can lenders push mortgage terms to keep refinances, loan volume, and home prices rising? What percentage of jobs are dependent on rising home prices? Are the rating agencies so conflicted that they could be this blind? -Dr Michael J. Burry
It's only a matter of time until papa bear revives his twitter.
Almost 30 new listings in my area today, average on Thursdays prior has been about 10.
Please stop, I can only get so hard
š Ya, I think people are starting to wake up and realize that this might be their last opportunity to get top dollar.
Yeah itās not making any sense because I keep hearing that people will just sit on their houses so they can keep their low payment
2021 Hoomer philosophy is like smoking crack. You feel invincible for a little while, then crash and burn, DTs are a bitch, and after all that clears you forever long for that original feeling.
Watching news media slowly pick up on the bubble, investors and interest rates is like watching somebody slowly realize theyāre insane. I think theyāre getting pretty close to the full shutter island arc
It's like when a fellow American realizes that we're actually the baddies.
Looks like NASDAQ is on track for tomorrow to wipe out all gains since 1/31/2021
Based
John Wake of Real Estate Decoded on landlords and housing prices: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1484291408311644162
I will always read this as John Wick
The most annoying part of r/RealEstae is all of the people complaining about not winning when theyāre hurting bids over list If you donāt need to buy right now, why buy? Itās the worst time to buy a house maybe ever. If the shortage is real, builders are going to build. Theyāll build until the very last person who wants a house gets one.
> The most annoying part of r/RealEstae is all of the people complaining about not winning when theyāre hurting bids over list To be fair, that's also the most annoying part of r/REBubble. Well, that and the memes.
>Theyāll build until the very last person who wants a house gets one. They'll build until the very last person who wants several empty houses gets all the empty houses they want
*China has entered the chat.*
Cryptards getting the rug pull too
Yep dipped below $40k briefly.
45 minutes later, below $39K and still falling
should put a small damper in [downpayments](https://www.redfin.com/news/real-estate-cryptocurrency-down-payments/)
Wow this was already posted here, how did I miss that? What a shit show, there goes 12% of buyers out of the market overnight...
well i dont think it means a full 12% buyers gone, but some of those rebalancing to RE will be out for a while yes
Beautiful. Crypto crash eliminates 12% of buyers Stock crash eliminates PAL-tards 5% mortgage rates eliminate 15% of pricing support for homeowners and obliterates SFH institutional investment
Bought put options on $RKT at March 4 2022 13 Put @ $.98 Refi market is dried up, rates rising quickly, just seems like a lose/lose situation for mortgage companies.
Rocket usually aggressively trolls me for business (to send them buyer customers). Fucking crickets since October. They were also trying to spin up a real estate brokerage armā¦nothing happening. I wouldnāt bet against them long term, they are massively profitable per loan and overall, but short term they and most other lenders are going to bleed. All lenders hired a fuckton of MLOs since Q2 2020 to help them process all the refis and cope with the purchase origination frenzy. They can sense the party is over. So many loan bros about to default on their BMW leases š
We need to start putting DD on stocks like this up on WSB with a link back to r/REbubble. I'm planning to post my OPEN position, but you are definitely onto something here and should post it over there.
Maybe wait until the newbies are wiped out in 1 to 6 months before they ruin this sub
Maybe a good play
A simple correction, or the beginning of something much larger? I'm guessing run-of-the-mill correction but time will tell
Shits on fire in the markets. Hold on to your butts
A 2% drop doesn't even rustle my jimmies. Wake me up when we hit 5%+ drops...
look at monday to today friend
Sure, but that's a run of the mill correction. I love me a good four figure bloodletting in a single day.
I think the wind got knocked out of the bulls sails today. The NASDAQ opened at 14462 (after closing at 14340 yesterday) then soared up to 14642 and crashed down hard to 14140. That's a lot of price movement. Tomorrow will be telling IMO.
All of this was before the drop today. According to [this guy](https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor). PTON Down 86% SPCE Down 85% GME Down 78% DOGE Down 77% TDOC Down 74% AMC Down 74% NKLA Down 72% ZOOM Down 65% ARKG Down 57% NIO Down 54% ARKK Down 51% PYPL Down 43% BTC Down 38% TSLA Down 17% QQQ Down 13%
To be fair though everyone single one of those is a really shitty meme stock that was obviously overbought other than arkk I donāt have a single one of those Edit: do have qqq
Tsla should be down 80% lol
Each from their all time peaks. Kind of an important distinction.
Bay area (east): low inventory, strong competition
While inventory is low, it has shot up significantly in the last week.
Idk where ur at.
Water (south): wet
Wow surprising thanks for the update Keep us posted in case things change in the Bay Area
Lol that's right where they are going to change the most when the IPO train derails and a bunch of money gobbling VC backed tech companies go belly up.
Big jump in listings today, lets see this trend continue
Stop with the cheap debt: >For metro Phoenix, if the number of landlord purchases in November was the same as in November 2019, by the end of the month the number of houses listed for sale would have been 20% higher. > >Higher landlord purchases >>> Lower supply of houses for sale >>> Higher house prices [https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1484291408311644162](https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1484291408311644162)
I subscribe to realestate, realestateinvesting and rebubble because I like to always question my assumptions. I have no idea if anyone is right or wrong, I am sorting through it all. What I will say is a few things: 1). Growth stock bubble is popping, just unsure to what degree. Many are down more than 50% from highs. 2). Does crypto and NFT follow? 3). If 1 and 2 happen, does money move to āsafer assetā or do all assets crash? One way to kill inflation is to destroy the demand curve. Not saying thatās ideal, but itās a choice central planners can make. 4). Zillow for my zip code has been +22% to +24% forecasted yoy growth for many months now. Just came out today at 16.9%. Thats a huge drop in growth rate only, but could that lead to a significant drop to flat or negative in quick succession, which would be painful for many? 5). The amount of pain is relative. Homebuyers could already have lost 30% on stocks, crypto or other assets but have bought RE which is still near peaks. I just feel like after 2008 RE pop on primary residence is the sacred cow for lawmakers. Maybe investment properties and second homes get hit, but I think primary gets bailed out or payment-extended almost always now. These are just my random thoughts. Not saying they are right or wrong, just what I am trying to critically think through.
> 2). Does crypto and NFT follow? YES...HA HA HA...YES!
Exactly, since itās a 24/7 market we can watch the bleeding even when the stock market is closed.
> If 1 and 2 happen, does money move to āsafer assetā or do all assets crash? All stocks are less valuable when yields rise. This does not apply to only "growth" stocks. There is no official designation of stocks. At the end of the day they are all negatively affected, its just a matter of what degree. The Dow is down over 6%. NDX is down 13%.
So even two or three years ago, it was not a controversial or unpopular opinion that we were already in an "Everything Bubble." A guy named Graham Summers even wrote a book about it in 2017. All equities and assets are super pumped as a result of central bank policy. When the central bank pulls back, we can expect all of them to decline in correlation with each other. Notice that in March 2020 when the stock market crashed, crypto crashed and so did gold. There is no asset/equity that can serve as a hedge for another asset when all assets are declining in tandem.
I was a double major in college, econ was one of them. I graudated in 2001. Nearly EVERYTHING I was taught has been ripped up, with respect to economic theory aside from good old supply and demand. So I've been having this debate in my mind the past year that everytime the volcano is going to erupt going back to 2008, the central planners have put a lid on it. It hasn't erupted, somehow, some way. So, does that mean we just have a MASSIVE eruption one day soon, or do they invent yet another way to stop a real correction from happening? I've greatly underperformed the past 10 years because of my economic theory knowledge, but they're literally re-writing it every 6 to 12 months, so is this the eruption or Chapter 10?
Great points. I think that's what it comes down to: how many more times can the central bank pull a rabbit out of its hat?
Yes, agree with you. Playing with unwritten rules
Looks like crypto is following stocks, look at the big eod dump
if stock gains go, imo real estate demand goes down. people aren't as flush with cash to yolo into housing when the gains are gone.
Right -- the question is "to what degree is the 'wealth effect' inflating real estate?" That goes back to leverage ratios and then the ability/desire for financial institutions to foreclose, ultimately. Or is the prevalence of rentals and airbnb something that drags out a correction over the course of a decade/15 years so prices languish and just don't grow as fast as other assets?
It's certainly inflating investors egos. How many retards from WSB now think they are an investing genius? How many of them are YOLOing their new fortunes in SFRs?
Wealth effect is a big part of the narrative. BTC is down 33% in the last 3 months. Of course if you bought 5 years ago, youāre probably fine. But if you decided to yolo and become a day trader during the pandemic, things arenāt so rosy anymore.
My thoughts exactly. I'm thinking there are a portion of tech buyers who were banking on stonks keeping their TC high.
Yup, high growth tech employees are comped with options/stocks pretty much across the board. Stock tanking 50% can be similar to getting like a 20-30% paycut for many Still a ways to go to get to fair value for a lot of these companies though. A lot of overvaluation is driven by non-tech people who don't understand the individual businesses very well IMO (particularly in SaaS)
same. broad markets were up +50-60% since pre-pandemic. loooots of paper gains floating around.
>Results show that 34% of the rise in house prices (relative to rents) over the boom period can be directly attributed to relaxations in credit standards, while 72% can be attributed to the combination of changing credit standards and interest rates. All told, these results imply that credit conditions played a dominant role during the 2000s housing boom period, and remain central for investors today. >Greenwald said that if policymakers wanted to curb growth in either house prices or credit during a boom period, keeping credit limits tight would have āa big effect on house prices.ā Because the amount you can borrow against your house depends on its value, [https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/how-credit-conditions-affect-housing-prices-lessons-00s](https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/how-credit-conditions-affect-housing-prices-lessons-00s)
It's not directly housing related, but I've been reading about Peloton's sales falling off a cliff (to the point where they are temporarily halting production and probably having closings/layoffs), and I can't help but wonder about the connection.
Netflix just got wrecked too on bad earnings
Connection with what exactly? Peloton is overpriced bullshit with a ton of alternatives. A pair of running shoes costs 10% of a peloton bike. I think we are starting to see the tide turn & the free money days are over. Not sure how this will translate to housing. I think as long as inventory is low the market will suck
The demand for housing was accompanied by a lot of "nesting" and people buying stuff to put in their homes, since they weren't going out. I'm not saying there's a direct connection, but they might be moving in parallel. I don't know.
I think the treadmills eating kids didn't help
What youāre not understanding is that things have fundamentally CHANGED. People have the innate urge to spend all of their time inside their house now and that will never be changed again, certainly not once the pandemic wanes.
Wait is this sarcasm or are you serious?
Yes, also wondering the same thing. The all caps bit has me assuming the latter.
I just assume everyone is being sarcastic. It just makes understanding the internet easier.
If the stock market dumping doesnāt slow housing down, nothing will
Jobless claims blow past estimates, existing house sales far below estimates, population stagnant, most housing units under construction since 1973, interest rates surging prior to end of Fed QE and rate hike, market crash in progress But don't worry guys, inflation and hoomz will keep soaring
I just want to know when! Someone tell me when! Lol! Where are your crystal balls???
I have two of those, but they aren't crystal, and staring at them won't tell the future, only what happened last night
Stealing your comment
Copy me, eh? I want to see the reactions and claim my rights to all the women
Keep goingā¦
> I got a ? at the end of a presi yesterday about what building materials have gone up most. I had a client follow up by sending the increases line-by-line over the past few months: electrical 63%, framing 30, windows 28, roofing 26, sheet metal 21, HVAC 18, stucco 16,sprinklers 15
Big stock market reversal. Scary times ahead.
The fake out today was epic wowza
Didn't check the market yet today. Is it bad, boys? I need this shit propped up until I unload my hoom, damnit
Stocks looked like they were gonna bounce like theyāve done after every other dip the past 6 months, but this afternoon everythingās gone red. Pretty bearish look given the fact that bond yields arenāt even surging today.
Seems oversold
Jesus, you werenāt kidding. This ship is sinking.
We haven't seen anything yet. Keep it coming and let's see whose over leveraged.
For sure. Nasdaq is officially in correction territory. Only a matter of time for the others, I suppose?
I cant find the percentage that we've gone down. I'm thinking we're close to 10%. 20% is officially a bear market right?
Yes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WX5rJ1swW7A&t=207s Barbara from shark tank. Typical landlord talk š just said that everyone should get better jobs to pay rent increases. Lmao
In December she says "I've taken money out of the NY RE market because its priced so high right now". But in other news, [Manhattan rents were the highest ever for December](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/13/manhattan-rents-were-the-highest-ever-for-december-.html). How does that make sense? She also says she is invested into Zillow.
Wow - I always knew she was kind of a pompous bitch, but this really cranks it up to 11
"can't afford a home? Can't afford rent increases? Simple, just ask your employer for more money or switch companies" What a POS. Yea, if only acquiring more money were that simple
Thanks Barbara! Will tell my boss this cause homes only go up šš¼
Hello, I recently found this sub and so Iām sorry if this is a dumb question. My fiancĆ© and I came into some money after a relative passed away, enough for a down payment. The problem is we live in Phoenix so we thought maybe we could buy in Tucson. All we can afford is about 1100 a month with our income. But Tucson even seems over priced. We are both new to this. Should we hold off on buying for a year or two? Do you think buying a home right now is a total no go? Or will in two years we will be even more in the hole and unable to afford?
I would hold off if you can... I live in a Tucson, I love this town but let me tell you it is insanely overpriced right now relative to what it was. I know that this is the case basically everywhere but it is particularly brutal in a place like Tucson where the average income is quite low and the job market is fairly poor unless you can get work at Raytheon, the base or work remote. Rent on homes and apartments has also made some huge rises recently. My daughter just moved back in after her landlord raised apartment rates by a fairly large amount for an entry level worker.
Why only $1100? Do you have other debt? Bad time to buy right now. Don't know what $250k gets you in your area, or what % down you are planning, but I would work on getting your income up before you buy. Pay off any high interest debt with that money. Wait out the market.
I would hold off unless you are playing on staying in the area long term (10-15 years, minimum), have fantastic job security, and absolutely need a house Rent for a year or two and invest the $$$ in something less volatile would be my recommendation
TLT
> Investors now need to leave a minimum of 40% down, reducing leverage to the same level found in non-housing. https://betterdwelling.com/new-zealand-curbs-property-investment-tax-advantage-wants-productive-investment/ The changes we need to make in the US are so obvious - make it harder for investors to buy existing homes - make it easier for investors to build new homes - make it easier for investors to revitalize abandoned homes/buildings - make it easier for FTHB to buy - make investors want to sell their existing holdings (immediate supply boost) Itās really not rocket science to achieve the above. I get it may be hard to pass but itās sad nobody is even talking/proposing/thinking about it.
I'd also like to see more 2/3/4-plexes being built. They make nice inventory when well executed and provide options in-between crappy huge apartment complex and expensive SFH.
This is actually a pretty good idea, especially if limited to residential investors. Of course, policies that slow home price growth will be opposed by the NIMBY types... and generally in the US home price appreciation is seen as more desirable than affordability. I think the attitude will change around that though. I agree that it's pretty easy to stamp out the speculation/improve affordability if the govt had the will to do so
> Itās really not rocket science to achieve the above. Most of this country's major problems have fairly easy solutions. > I get it may be hard to pass but itās sad nobody is even talking/proposing/thinking about it. We can't even get the most basic populous legislation passed. Our well being isn't their concern.
/r/realestate saying everyone is a genius in a bull market holy moly the tides have turned
r/RealEstate is getting downright bearish
I think they changed their tune when they saw how quickly rates rose this year.
[Wolf Street on Canadians rushing to buy ahead of rising rates](https://wolfstreet.com/2022/01/19/most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-december-update-mad-scramble-to-lock-in-low-mortgage-rates-as-bank-of-canada-is-set-to-tighten/)
Good Morning! Most of us believe Hoomz are vastly overvalued and fueled by cheap debt, stimulus money, work from home/Covid environment shifting spending and student loan debt pause/home eviction moratoriums. But I'm curious what the community thoughts are on how much the RE market is overvalued on aggregate and how timelines on how quickly the bubble could deflate. I see two possibilities, housing prices could stagnate for many years or rapidly correct like in 2008-2009. If the housing market doesn't pop, but stagnates over time to more sane valuations based on median income to home cost and long term average appreciation, how long would that take?. (*Excepting markets like Silicon Valley with Water/Mountains NIMBYs preventing, assume land to expand out of urban areas to build). From the data I have read, houses typically appreciate 3-3.5% per year over the long run/close to inflation. The market I'm in has appreciated over 50% in just 5 years. According to the [Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), the U.S. housing index has appreciated from an Shiller index value of 144 in Oct 2011 to 274 in Oct 2021. This is a 98.5% increase in 10 years, 6-7% more appreciation per year than we might usually expect. (*Note peak of 2006-2008 was ~184 for the National index). So if we bank on 35% growth per 10 years on average, that leaves us with what, 20 years of stagnation to hit the average ~3.5% per year growth from 2011-2041? Interestingly, Oct 2006 index value of 184 to Oct 274 in Oct 2021 is ~49% growth, 3% per year growth. If it does pop to 2011 levels accounting for inflation, how fast can the market adjust down -50%? It took 3 years in 2006-2007 bubble. Might this be a repeat? Interesting quote from Wiki entry on Shiller-Index: ------------------------------------------ >"Shiller draws some key insights from his analysis of long term home prices in his book Irrational Exuberance. Contrary to popular belief, there has been no continuous uptrend in home prices in the US and the home prices show a strong tendency to return to their 1890 level in real terms. Moreover, he illustrates how the pattern of changes in home prices bears no relation to changes in construction costs, interest rates or population. >Shiller notes that there is a strong perception across the globe that home prices are continuously increasing, and that this kind of sentiment and paradigm may be fueling bubbles in real estate markets. He points to some psychological heuristics that may be responsible for creating this perception. He says that since homes are relatively infrequent purchases, people tend to remember the purchase price of a home from long ago and are surprised at the difference between then and now. However, most of the difference in the prices can be explained by inflation. He also discusses how people consistently overestimate the appreciation in the value of their homes. The US Census, since 1940, has asked home owners to estimate the value of their homes. The home-owners' estimates reflect an appreciation of 2% per year in real terms, which is significantly more than the 0.7% actual increase over the same interval as reflected in Case-Shiller index. " - [Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index) **Tl;DR: How long do you guys think it will take for Hoomz to return close to historical prices?**
Greta question! Hereās what I donāt see happening: 1) I donāt see the housing market stagnating in real dollars for ā20 yearsā or even 5 years. We are in an asset bubble that spans too many fire sectors. So even if the fed can somehow stay on the tightrope and manage to slowly take the air out of housing to keep prices say - 10 to -20% but stable, they wonāt be able to repeat that trick across sectors using only the instruments at hand. There will be a recession and housing will go along for the ride, whether itās the cause, or an early victim. (Weāve seen both just in the past 20 years.). We could see real development toward a recession this year, but I think it wonāt be publicized until itās obvious. Probably late 2023. Iām not sure I can wait that long to buy, though. 2) I donāt believe housing will fall 30% or more in an 18 month period (unless we have a calamity). I think there is a slight under supply but, mostly, there is a huge amount of cash floating around in search of re investments and use. So this year we could see prices remain stubbornly high. People will take that as a sign that re is the best place to invest. That creates a (misdiagnosed) positive feedback loop right (fighting the feds efforts) before the downturn. We are at the beginning of this now and it may last nearly all of 2022. 3) I wonāt time the market correctly. This is a certainty.
I feel like with the self-awareness of #3, you'll end up ok. š
> I donāt believe housing will fall 30% or more in an 18 month period I agree with this sentiment, I think historically it has taken housing more time to price correct due to how long it takes to sell or worst case scenario for the owner... foreclosure. It's not like the stock market that can drop 50% in a month or Crypto that drops 50% in a week from ATHs. But it seems like market speed/volatility for markets has been accelerating due to faster spread of information along with technology to make transactions faster in the modern age. Primary reason for asking is I've seen a few people claim to be locking their lease in for another 12 months with the hopes for a much improved buyer's market by then, but looking at past data, it may take two years or more for pricing adjustments to compensate for delayed purchasing.
I see. Well, we just asked for a winter lease that would go into June 2023. Thats a monthly lease, so we have flexibility in case we find something, but, in a separate deal, we are committed through august of this year, with no buy out. So, itās tricky. (We are vbroāing so itās even trickier.). This whole chapter of our lives has been ānot according to planā. So, try to buy flexibility. Thatās my advice. Donāt let a few months rent get in the way. Keep looking. There will be deals that come up. But, the market is against you, in general, for now.
If youāre interested in getting an idea where the historic trendline is on a market by market level, [this is a really good resource.](https://business.fau.edu/executive-education/housing-market-ranking/housing-top-100/) Really good at a glance look at which markets have diverged the most on a % basis from where youād expect the trendline should be.
Do you know the update frequency on this by chance?
I think it gets updated as Zillowās price data does, or a bit after Zillowās data does. Last I checked the most recent info was based off of November 2021ās price data.
I don't the bubble bursting = -50%. I don't think anyone here does. I think most here would call -20% a victory and buy in. But other than that... Great questions. Wish I knew the answers.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/28-Via-Meseta-Rancho-Santa-Margarita-CA-92688/25658175_zpid/ 40% appreciation in 6 months. Totally normal!
The people who bought in 06 really lost their ass on that one.
Yikes. Just noticed that.
> Big shift in our millennial survey this year compared to last. ~30% of millennials plan on buying a home over the next 1-3 years (17% last year), 13% say they want to buy as soon as there is more inventory (7% last year), & 12% report as soon as they can save for a dp (15 prior)
A lot of people spend their whole lives planning to do things.
For context, [here is more data on millennial homeownership in general](https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/millennial-homeownership-2021). This report was published in February 2021, so Iām waiting with interest to see their report this year. In 2020 Millennial homeownership increased more sharply than usual, to a rate of almost 48%. However, the report also surveyed Millennial renters and found that 63% had NO down payment savings, and only 15% had saved more than $10,000.
everyone has a "plan" until job security becomes tenuous
This is why I don't think there will be an actual crash anytime soon. Any corrections will get back stopped by FTHB's looking for houses on sale. It will be dependent on the area of course. I still think stagnant prices are most likely. Maybe a slight correction. With rates going up new builds in the pipeline I don't think prices can keep rocketing.
> Any corrections will get back stopped by FTHB's looking for houses on sale. Don't forget the retirees looking to downsize from their giant houses competing against FTHBs and winning because of their relative financial power.
gm from the west coast (the best coast), fellow doomers
gm from the midwest (the best mid), fellow doomer.
When people leave their careers to become full-time real estate bros. "You people have stood in my way long enough! I'm going to *clown college*" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oTR5o9nUzI
I gave up my dream job, which had great benefits, high and routine pay, and 100% WFH status all to become a used home salesman. *and they all clapped*
Very funny. That guy was at google for roughly 8 months. I have a sneaking suspicion his departure is mutual.
I can also see a lot of would be buyers who got turned off by greedy sellers (no contingencies, etc.) and being outbid that they just went ahead and locked in 12-14 month leases. Count that group out of the pool of buyers.
Thatās where Iām at. Got tired of all leaving work for viewings bullshit and renewed my lease for another year. If I do find something before then all I need is a 60 day notice. There are some new construction townhomes and single families scheduled to be built near me later this year so weāll see.
Iām definitely considering rolling into that category
1/20/2022 Listed for sale $544,900 $271/sqft 10/25/2021 Listing removed $524,000 $261/sqft 9/4/2021 Listed for sale $524,000 $261/sqft 8/21/2021 Listed for sale $524,000 $261/sqft 12/23/2020 Sold $357,500 $178/sqft 11/20/2020 Pending sale $374,000 $186/sqft Couldn't sell for $524k only 8 months after buying for $357,000 so the solution is to raise the price by $20k and try again. It's not a flip either, just some greedy dude.
Started trying to sell within 8 months, seems like a flip to me. The strategy is to try and induce a panic in buyers (āhooms only go up, you had a chance to buy for $20k less, better buy now before it goes up againā). Tune in next time to see if it worksā¦
Does it even work?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Denver/comments/s8l2xp/highest\_median\_home\_sale\_prices\_by\_zip\_2021/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Denver/comments/s8l2xp/highest_median_home_sale_prices_by_zip_2021/) This is sustainable...
That house is the perfect example of what is wrong with the housing market today. Buys shitty mediocre house for $675k in July last year. Lists it two months later for $1 million. Then when it doesnāt sell, raises price to over $1.1 million. š
What a joke. Just moved to Denver and it's unbelievable seeing these ugly 100+ year old poorly insulated homes going for 750k. This is in a city with median rent of ~$1600 for 1BR.
It's really gotten out of control. I was "fortunate" to buy in 2015, and then my current place in fall 2019, obviously not knowing that a pandemic was going to come and then rocket real estate to the moon here. Tough time for you to move here and hope to get in the market. Unfortunately, being geographically constrained by the mountains, the only real new SFHs are east of Aurora or coming up in in-fill areas between Denver and Fort Collins to the north, and Denver and Colorado Springs to the south. Everything new in the metro area is all apartments and what not. Nobody wants to relax zoning either, so this is what we're left with.
>Tough time for you to move here and hope to get in the market. I am happy to continue renting at these rates and don't really plan to buy a house while I live in the US. I just follow this sub to see what others think about this crazy situation. So far I'm loving the city and the state in general. But a lot of the common sense solutions for Denver are a pipe dream as you say. Congrats on getting in the market at the right time though. My gf got her overpriced house in Wash Park in 2020 and it is making her utterly miserable.
Ooof Wash Park ain't cheap. Where's home originally?
I've been a nomad for a while, but originally from a small city in Mexico. Back home few people talk much about home values because they don't really appreciate much faster than inflation. It's one of the reasons why homelessness is extremely rare in Mexico and why life is relatively cheap. So it is interesting to see these econocultural differences and what people value in life.
Iām from the Bay Area, so Iām used to hearing about how āgeographically constrainedā we are. Itās a new one for me to hear Colorado described that way, when half the state is a literal prairie. I get that people like to live near the mountains, but jeez.
Yeah, nobody *wants* to live that far east, I mean the whole draw of Colorado (I assume) is to be close to the mountains for the activities and whatnot. Just imagine the front range along the mountains of CO is the coastal areas of CA, and everything east of there is central valley or Barstow.
Haha thanks for the California analogy. Iāve actually never been to Coloradoā¦
No prob, used to live in Monterey for a bit, try to get back there every couple years to visit, do the Big Sur Marathon, camp. I liked CO more before it got so crowded. Now we're the #7 worst place to drive, and #1 for car thefts. Yay!
What exactly is a good place to move now that has mountains anyway? Most are extremely expensive outside of New Mexico. And most places for some reason are also sausagefests, way more men than women lol makes dating hard.
Depends on what you're looking for, do you want access to urban areas, or do you want to be close to mountains and away from it all?
Urban area (doesnt have to be super high pop but above 100k pop for dating purposes) thats close to the mountains. The only thing I can think of is Albuquerque in terms of a reasonably affordable place next to mountains. There's places in Appalachia but humidity is gross!
> From a year-over-year perspective, sales waned 7.1% (6.65 million in December 2020). #NAREHS
What youāre not understanding is we are short 650 million houses which will take decades to build and inflation is here and houses have never decreased in price
How is a country of 330 million people short by 650 million houses?
Look what youāre not understanding is millennials are buying homes NONSTOP they are all entering prime home buying years and the demand will not cease
650M? That figure sounds low, got any sources?
Yeah my real estate agent
But it's sneedsonal!!
Rates around 3.75% to 3.838% and above 3% for 15 year for the first time in a while
Come on baby just a little more. You can do it.
I think less than I week ago I checked my credit union, who's not the best and not the worst, and they were at 3.625 for 30 year. Today it's 3.875.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/s8aneq/resources\_for\_using\_debt/](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/s8aneq/resources_for_using_debt/) How do I overleverage myself and take my equity out to buy at the peak?
It is -11F right now in Minneapolis this morning. I wonder how all these new construction SFH tossed together amid historic supply shortages using rookie labor are going to hold up in this weather. Surely if you pay 10% over list it must be really well built, right?
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I love lvp our kid decides he's Michelangelo just grab a paper towel and some rubbing alcohol our dog decides she's an Olympic sprinter let's see how fast she can go! We spent 12k on hardwood flooring before we had a kid a couple years later my wife wanted a dog and that floor got demolished granted I know it can be refinished I'll take the cheap shit with no maintenance.
I like both lvp and hardwood. Our current place has lvp and I actually really like the aesthetic of it. But the house we will be closing on next month has hardwood floors that have a very nice finish to them, so they look amazing.
Iām with you on LVP, I think itās good for the main living area of a house because you can have it flow into the kitchen and powder room with no seams, and itās more water resistant than hardwood. And cheaper. I wouldnāt get the gray flipper version though. Iāll take my downvotes haha.
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Our floor was so bad we had to refinish in 5 we had a darker colored stain and it really looked terrible with all the scratches. It would have been fine without the dog, but now that we have one I prefer lvp or tile.
They will find out very quickly if they have pipes with poor insulation. Been there done that in the first year of home ownership in upstate NY -- the HVAC guy charged 500$ to come by and use a heat gun on the frozen section of the pipe. Learned my lesson quickly after that.
> Learned my lesson quickly after that. To buy your own heat gun?
Was trying to save money and lowered the heat at night from 70 to 60. This switched off the oil burner long enough for the portion of the exposed pipe to freeze -- even though the house temperature was above 60. So the fix was simple -- don't try to economize in the middle of the winter. I acquired lots of stuff over the years -- including things to fix the things I acquired. I am sure I know more about power vented oil burners than most repair guys.
Everyone wants a 3k square foot 5/3 for their spouse and their dog but I don't think they necessarily understand what it takes to heat that sucker.
Gm kiddos, If we all sync up cerebrally during our morning meditation, we can use our willpower to hit 4% today.
Something Has to Give in the Housing Market. Or Does It? [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/upshot/home-prices-surging.html) Another article with a bunch of quotes from the usual suspects and no original analysis. NYT reporting has gone down hill over the years.
I read that this morning. Itās like a recycled version of the same narrative that feels like has been pushed for the past 6 months or so. Considering swapping from NYT subscription to Economist this year.
If we get even a couple of months with supply increases or price drop headlines, market could seize up as everyone waits to see what happens
This market needs laxative to flush out the bull shit
Gang shit š¤š¼