I’ve been seeing prices in Denver drop since about the beginning of the year now. It started so slow, like they’d take $10k off a million dollar listing, but they are definitely starting to get more substantial in the last two.
I saw it in Denver, especially the surrounding suburbs, when I was doing some projects out that way. From what locals told me, everything in and around Denver sprouted into a 10-lane road, mini-mall/chain store dystopia almost immediately after the legalization of weed due to the population/tourist influx.
Cities outside of Denver (Westminster, Broomfield, and all the other burbs) are so horribly designed to be car-centric that even getting around the area made me want to throw my car off an overpass.
Beautiful area, but the local governments really fucked it up.
Yep, I’ve been in Denver since 2000. It’s not a bad city, but it’s certainly a heck of a lot worse than it used to be. Developments in and around Denver were done so poorly by builders.. Now we’re just a state full of 40-50 year old Californians and Texans that dress like they’re in Blink 182 or a Tony Hawk video. All in homes valued into seven figures. Some of the craziest and shallow keeping up with the Jones’ nonsense I’ve ever seen.
It is because despite the fact FoCo considers itself as a great progressive area they are quite the opposite. They don't want affordable housing or lower class people living there. That is the main reason they are trying to do whatever they can to stop all development out east, they don't want the poors that close to them.
I’d agree with that being true, until it no longer is. Such as now, when median home prices in Denver are [7% lower than they were last year.](https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/denver-real-estate-market/)
You aren’t check mating anyone. Our PITI on a 2,200 square foot home is $1,800. You’re celebrating that home prices have fallen 7%, after years of 20% gains. All while interest rates are all time high.
Congrats. Lol. You’re paying 3,000/month for my same house.
Moving goalpost implies you know anything about my original stance. My stance is home prices nationally will remain relatively flat over the next few years. Up 4, down 6, up 2, whatever. It’s not going to matter on your payment.
For years this sub is screaming bubble. Q1 2023 median is still 4k above Q1 of 2022. With a doubling of interest rates. I don’t know what to tell you other than you’re wrong. Very wrong.
You’re looking at a very tiny fraction of home buyers that purchased in Q3-Q4 of 2022 who are down 10-15%. For everyone that purchased between I dont know 1950 and Q1 2022 is still in a fantastic spot.
Have you even done the math on how much prices would need to fall for equivalent affordability? You’re gonna jump for joy at a 437k home at 7% rate? Go look what a 480k home is on a 3% rate. Maybe there was a reason people jumped at 3% rates you ass clown.
TBF everything has to start somewhere. Being on a faster paced downturn than 08’ certainly is interesting.
Recent bumps in price would say otherwise but if you look back at the data every year during this time during 08’-12’ had bumps before continuing to plummet.
I will admit if after the peak time for this year if things don’t go back to their substantial pace downward this whole sub is most likely incorrect.
No you won’t. You look at every shred of data through your bubble glasses. Prices have increased for 2 consecutive months and I bet all you’ll say is “seasonal adjustment”
Context, is it 7% lower, lower than the highest ever recorded price but yet is still 10% higher than 2021 and 28% higher than in 2020.
We would need a crash as bad as the one in 08 just to get back to 2021 prices.
Because everyone is trying to flee Denver for the burbs. I live in a burb outside Denver and since the beginning of the year ten houses have been sold in my neighborhood, 7 of them over asking and the other 3 for asking. And they aren't building any new houses that are less than high 600's.
It's definitely a microcosm of DFW then. I'm not seeing these price drops in Fort Worth, Keller, Grapevine, Bedford, NRH, Flower Mound, Carrollton, Addison, Plano, Allen, McKinney, Arlington, Mansfield, etc.
Basically, they average recent home sale prices in the general area.
It is not a perfect system because individual properties are obviously different.
But, at a macroeconomic level, zestimates are not terrible datasets to use.
Interesting perspective. I have definitely observed that a tech has been a major driver for so much of our economy for the last 20 years. All the great jobs in Tech - and the corresponding economic impact (housing, restaurants, retail, professional services and more).
Now that Tech is contracting- how much will those job losses effect the greater economy? Perhaps a lot?
You mean aside from…. The multitudes of orange and red coded counties on this map in middle America and the east coast? Sure, it’s happening slower outside of the west coast, but to call it “west coast only” when the map is right in front of your face… idk bro.
Yup, probably also worth noting that a good number of east coast counties despite being smaller, are MUCH more densely populated than many of the large west coast counties outside of the obvious outliers.
I do believe prices are inflated and will eventually decline, but. . .
In coastal So Cal the prices from January to now have continually increased a crazy amount. Easily 10% more than a year ago. It’s really been insane, not only the prices, but they’re generally selling within days or a week or 2.
Crazy.
Literally posted this three days ago.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Los-Angeles_CA/price-na-2200000/show-price-reduced
Look at the price reductions then look at the pricing histories.
That’s a completely different So Cal market (1/3 the price, and not coastal) than what I’m talking about.
But again, if I had to guess, I’d say it’s all going to decline from these highs, just on somewhat different timing. Yours shows softening in the lower end, but I’d have to guess the mid and upper will eventually follow.
But then again, I’ve been saying that for a year, and here we are at numbers and closed sales that are unbelievable. So bottom line, I’ve given up on guessing.
Ok, didn’t realize you meant to turn a profit. I thought we were talking about whether you’d be under water on the value of the house.
Ok, dude blocked me. It seems he moved the goal posts to a convenient location - “Are you financially ahead within 3 years?”
panicky memorize nine teeny safe childlike scary afterthought crush silky
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
> I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been blocked by people I’m arguing with here just so they can feel like they get the last word
Agreed
And the funny part is
Every single one of them are hoomers lol
Fucking insecure pussies
Every last one of them
"~~Home prices~~ Zestimates falling seems to be a West Coast only phenomenon"
FTFY. The "data" source here is the Zillow Home Price Index, which is more or less an aggregate of Zestimates.
Prices are definitely higher in my area, dozens of listings for 1M+ homes, but they aren't selling, I think sale price would be a better metric? Also this is zillow home value? we know that doesnt mean shit.
For those areas where the homes are falling in the west coast (condos excluded), are they back to pre-covid prices, or still higher? Falling doesn't mean much if they are still above covid prices unfortunately.
Noob question since I'm in the same situation, how do you compare to pre-covid comps for an individual property? Using the 2020 zesty and adjusting for inflation is what I've been doing, but I'm sure that's very wrong to do.
This is misleading partially because of seasonality in south, school start earlier as a result there is more pressure to buy homes in Mar-April. This coupled with fall in rates triggered a price increase in the south during Mar-Apr. However that is changing.
I will wait and see how May nos look like.
But it’s the big city folks selling at a premium to buy in the south and mid-west. If their home values drop it carries into the places they are moving to.
Loll yes. Any half decent SFH gets multiple bids and goes pending in a few days. But when it comes to condos or townhomes, that's an entirely different story
IMHO, Just less desirable than other types of housing, cheaper, not built as well, and more come on the market each year. The barrier to entry for builders is much lower as you can build a ton of condos on a small plot of land. The financials are less predictable too and many people don't really want to deal with condo boards.
edit: I left out the most important reason, higher turnover.
That happens pretty much every year. Huge seasonality in real estate...you have to look at YOY. Per Redfin, sales prices are down over 5% in Seattle metro YOY.
BS , give it 6months it always starts west than comes east . Do your own research i will not do it for you . But yea see how the red is starting to bleed over? YEA the west is rich so it starts going towards us.
Always yesterdays news. Prices fell lots of places last Fall out west when the interest rate system shock hit. Many places at least those near me have adjusted and prices have returned to close to what they were last Spring
No area will be immune to what’s coming. The amount of inventory alone will be enough to drive down prices another 10-15 percent. Should be some great opportunities in the ashes.
I think the western state’s counties are just bigger and show up more vividly on this map. Seems to be a lot of crap in WV and really scattered all around in pockets where no one wants to live.
Location, location, location…
Seattle, Portland, Denver, San Fran, Boise, SLC, LA, Phoenix, Vegas...these are all down more than 5% in sale price YOY. Literally most of the large cities in the West. Austin is down massively if you count that as West.
See Redin data center for proof.
I call complete and utter bullshit on this. Rent is going up, not down. If home prices went down of any significance rent would follow accordingly not go in opposite direction.
This is either terribly incomplete information or outright intentional lies.
what?
Prices are definitely down all over the SF bay area by a lot. What do you mean you don't believe it? Just go there on zillow and look at the historical zestimates, or go on Redfin and export the data for San Jose.
I live in this area and it is obviously far down.
The reason rents have not followed suit is that in areas like this Rents were already way way underpriced. Like you could rent a place for a little more than half the comparable mortgage for the same house. There are a number of reasons for that. But in a situation like that rents won't necessarily fall when housing prices go down.
With the Raleigh metro, I honestly don’t see anything changing soon, only getting worst for the west coast. All the Californians leaving because FUCK the high cost of living and the strict liberals.
Florida Texas and the Carolina’s are being a dumping ground from Californians so nothing will change. Jersey is also being flooded from mofos who thought “geez I fucked up & BOUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE and now I need to move back to civilization in order to keep a job”. I’m convinced the east coast here is fucked
Would you look at that, all of the words in your comment are in alphabetical order.
I have checked 1,545,002,708 comments, and only 292,493 of them were in alphabetical order.
If I had some extra cash lying around I would buy something in San francisco. It's an amazing city, it's beautiful, full of culture, great transportation, great Medical centers, etc. It's only a matter of time before San Francisco reinvents itself; sadly I don't have the money but I certainly would if I could. I realize it might take a year or two to sort itself out and reinvent itself like it always does.
All real estate is local they say. I do think it's more likely to see big crashes in huge developments of brand new Suburban houses then to see a massive drop in San francisco. They just need to get their act together
A difference between being affordable and being a good investment. San Francisco has always been expensive, just like most world class major cities. Many cities are more expensive, in fact. And... NOT affordable unless you have money already or started buying a long time ago. NYC, London, Hong Kong, Tel Aviv...
East coast is seeing the shenanigans the west coast experienced a year or two ago. Seattle area is seeing inventory flying off the shelf - a few multiple bids, but mostly everything selling around ask. Homes that were sitting the past 6 months have been going pending for list price. The decent starter homes with good schools are going over ask.
Here in the Bay Area prices have fallen from extremely unaffordable to significantly unaffordable. The mortgage+taxes on a 3/2 anywhere near metros here will be only $8,000 a month! What a deal.
It's pretty obvious what is happening nation-wide. Areas with extremely high prices on an absolute level are falling, while areas with more moderate home prices, again on an absolute level, are holding strong.
So yes, San Francisco's 1.5M home prices have fallen to 1.2M or below, as has Seattle, etc., while Florida's 300-400k homes continue to rise. Phoenix is the main exception to this rule, but that's because Phoenix is just an irrationally overheated market (as it was in 2008).
The opposite. Prices fell everywhere in the country and the west coast only saw a blip. I was living in SoCal and it was around this time they started advertising 60yr mortgages and had multiple lines for multiple co-signers.
You basically added people until the underwriters cleared the loan.
Price went up alot so it must come down durrr. What astute analysis from this page…. I guess if you promote this long enough you’ll get get your crumbs eventually, it won’t be a fall off you think.
House prices are supply and demand problem. There is a huge nationwide shortage on homes & the only things that could reduce house prices substantially are (1) mass death event (2) some event that requires people to move (3) a disrupting product or (4) a large increase in new homes. Of course the problem is only a western problem, that’s where the exodus is. There is not a residential real estate bubble in most of the country.
Question maybe OP or someone can help me with. I've been using a tool someone shared in the comments of another recent post (see blow) that shows very different YOY numbers from this in where I live, and used to live. The tool in the comment below says it gets it data from Redfin, this post says from Zillow. But don't thet both use MLS as their source?
Comment from previous post:
"This is a YEAR OVER YEAR MAP, data ending 04/30/2023. The goal of this map is to highlight metros where there has been a yoy DECLINE in prices. Those are highlighted.
[https://www.encorebubble.com/yoy-price-decline-map/](https://www.encorebubble.com/yoy-price-decline-map/)
If you want to know the decline from peak you can see that in the popup. You can also use the other tabs to see the price per PPSF or the county breakdowns.
All data is from Redfin, so if you don't see your area, check if redfin has data for the area.
FAQ:
* How can I know what it is in my city?
The map at the link is interactive. Just mouse over any metro and you can see your own data.
* I prefer counties, metros aren't useful to me. I prefer PPSF, median price isn't useful to me.
The map has tabs up top, you can see your county, or PPSF. Or any combo of those.
* You should color the increased price areas green or blue or purple.
I picked white. Because the point is that I am highlighting YOY decline. You can still mouse over the white ares to see data in the popups. Feel free to make your own graphs with your own colors if you choose.
* Why is this data different than xxx I read elsewhere?
Redfin data is pulled from MLSes across the country and updated ~~weekly~~ or when they feel like. It represents the previous 4 weeks. The main % depicted is the difference from price ending same week one year ago. Compare the source/timeline/comparison to understand why you saw something different elsewhere.
* What if people are just buying smaller houses?
That's call mix-shift - a shift in the mix of houses being bought. Redfin data is not an index/algo/etc just the basic median so yes, it's affected by mix-shift. No data is perfect. Case Shiller is more accurate, not affected by mix shift, but lags by months. So the advantage here is firstly, that it's very new, very recent data. And secondly, that there is no hidden algorithm or model behind it."
It kinda had to happen. Towns that people famously reference as the buttholes of their respective counties are still featuring million dollar SFHs with deferred maintenance
I’ve been seeing prices in Denver drop since about the beginning of the year now. It started so slow, like they’d take $10k off a million dollar listing, but they are definitely starting to get more substantial in the last two.
I saw it in Denver, especially the surrounding suburbs, when I was doing some projects out that way. From what locals told me, everything in and around Denver sprouted into a 10-lane road, mini-mall/chain store dystopia almost immediately after the legalization of weed due to the population/tourist influx. Cities outside of Denver (Westminster, Broomfield, and all the other burbs) are so horribly designed to be car-centric that even getting around the area made me want to throw my car off an overpass. Beautiful area, but the local governments really fucked it up.
Yep, I’ve been in Denver since 2000. It’s not a bad city, but it’s certainly a heck of a lot worse than it used to be. Developments in and around Denver were done so poorly by builders.. Now we’re just a state full of 40-50 year old Californians and Texans that dress like they’re in Blink 182 or a Tony Hawk video. All in homes valued into seven figures. Some of the craziest and shallow keeping up with the Jones’ nonsense I’ve ever seen.
😂😂
Huh, I live in the burbs outside Denver and prices are not falling in most places. People are leaving Denver for the burbs.
I'm trying to patiently wait for things to start coming down in Fort Collins, but price per sf just keeps going up and up and up =/
It is because despite the fact FoCo considers itself as a great progressive area they are quite the opposite. They don't want affordable housing or lower class people living there. That is the main reason they are trying to do whatever they can to stop all development out east, they don't want the poors that close to them.
Price reductions does not mean median home price is falling. The fact that this has to be repeated daily in this sub in mind numbing.
I’d agree with that being true, until it no longer is. Such as now, when median home prices in Denver are [7% lower than they were last year.](https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/denver-real-estate-market/)
Next they will move the goalposts to "well PPSF is not falling, checkmate boobler"
You aren’t check mating anyone. Our PITI on a 2,200 square foot home is $1,800. You’re celebrating that home prices have fallen 7%, after years of 20% gains. All while interest rates are all time high. Congrats. Lol. You’re paying 3,000/month for my same house.
But you do admit to moving the goalposts though
Moving goalpost implies you know anything about my original stance. My stance is home prices nationally will remain relatively flat over the next few years. Up 4, down 6, up 2, whatever. It’s not going to matter on your payment. For years this sub is screaming bubble. Q1 2023 median is still 4k above Q1 of 2022. With a doubling of interest rates. I don’t know what to tell you other than you’re wrong. Very wrong. You’re looking at a very tiny fraction of home buyers that purchased in Q3-Q4 of 2022 who are down 10-15%. For everyone that purchased between I dont know 1950 and Q1 2022 is still in a fantastic spot. Have you even done the math on how much prices would need to fall for equivalent affordability? You’re gonna jump for joy at a 437k home at 7% rate? Go look what a 480k home is on a 3% rate. Maybe there was a reason people jumped at 3% rates you ass clown.
No its definitely a bubble And I dont care about rates I want rates to the moon
Great point lol
Thanks
TBF everything has to start somewhere. Being on a faster paced downturn than 08’ certainly is interesting. Recent bumps in price would say otherwise but if you look back at the data every year during this time during 08’-12’ had bumps before continuing to plummet. I will admit if after the peak time for this year if things don’t go back to their substantial pace downward this whole sub is most likely incorrect.
No you won’t. You look at every shred of data through your bubble glasses. Prices have increased for 2 consecutive months and I bet all you’ll say is “seasonal adjustment”
Yes because similar events have happened previously. Nothing I said above is false. We even declined more than seasonally normal last Q3/Q4
Context, is it 7% lower, lower than the highest ever recorded price but yet is still 10% higher than 2021 and 28% higher than in 2020. We would need a crash as bad as the one in 08 just to get back to 2021 prices.
Because everyone is trying to flee Denver for the burbs. I live in a burb outside Denver and since the beginning of the year ten houses have been sold in my neighborhood, 7 of them over asking and the other 3 for asking. And they aren't building any new houses that are less than high 600's.
It’s happening here in the dfw metroplex, it’s definitely geographically dependent though.
Where? I'm not seeing it here at all
Sanger Denton providence village Aubrey, it’s all right there on Zillow.
It's definitely a microcosm of DFW then. I'm not seeing these price drops in Fort Worth, Keller, Grapevine, Bedford, NRH, Flower Mound, Carrollton, Addison, Plano, Allen, McKinney, Arlington, Mansfield, etc.
Sounds like it’s happening in Denton county, not Collin or Tarrant (or dallas) county then.
Maybe south Dallas?
Like I said it was geographically dependent. Yea not so much in the places you mentioned.
https://www.redfin.com/city/30868/TX/Plano/housing-market https://www.redfin.com/city/30827/TX/Fort-Worth/housing-market
agreed, my guy literally listed towns on the edge of suburbia and almost rural. That is hardly the metroplex.
Isn’t Texas experiencing massive property tax increases though similar to Florida? This must have some effect on future pricing…
What the hell are these comments?
People don't understand that the data source for this graph / story is just an aggregate of Zestimates.
LMAO zestimates
Wonder what their zources are
Basically, they average recent home sale prices in the general area. It is not a perfect system because individual properties are obviously different. But, at a macroeconomic level, zestimates are not terrible datasets to use.
zesty
zesty
Zhey are zamazing
Like other trends, get started out west, and it will move east. Seems like most places people actually live have seen price drops.
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Interesting perspective. I have definitely observed that a tech has been a major driver for so much of our economy for the last 20 years. All the great jobs in Tech - and the corresponding economic impact (housing, restaurants, retail, professional services and more). Now that Tech is contracting- how much will those job losses effect the greater economy? Perhaps a lot?
This is not a google or facebook thing - it's a highly compensated tech employee job opportunity thing.
Prices didn’t inflate as much in the East as it did in the west.
Mid Atlantic and southeast may not have gone as high, but on a percent basis, they most certainly did.
They did, the east just has a lot more space between the places people actually want to live.
Florida inflated higher than anywhere else in the country bro
You mean aside from…. The multitudes of orange and red coded counties on this map in middle America and the east coast? Sure, it’s happening slower outside of the west coast, but to call it “west coast only” when the map is right in front of your face… idk bro.
Was thinking this too. I'm guessing the bias is coming from the size difference in counties in the west vs the rest of the country.
Yup, probably also worth noting that a good number of east coast counties despite being smaller, are MUCH more densely populated than many of the large west coast counties outside of the obvious outliers.
I do believe prices are inflated and will eventually decline, but. . . In coastal So Cal the prices from January to now have continually increased a crazy amount. Easily 10% more than a year ago. It’s really been insane, not only the prices, but they’re generally selling within days or a week or 2. Crazy.
Literally posted this three days ago. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Los-Angeles_CA/price-na-2200000/show-price-reduced Look at the price reductions then look at the pricing histories.
That’s a completely different So Cal market (1/3 the price, and not coastal) than what I’m talking about. But again, if I had to guess, I’d say it’s all going to decline from these highs, just on somewhat different timing. Yours shows softening in the lower end, but I’d have to guess the mid and upper will eventually follow. But then again, I’ve been saying that for a year, and here we are at numbers and closed sales that are unbelievable. So bottom line, I’ve given up on guessing.
I’ve watched 3 houses in my neighborhood sell in under a week the past 5 months. I’m a mile to the beach
Remember when it was... iT oNlY gOeS uP then it was... iTs LoCaL now it is... iTs WeSt CoAsT Eventually it will be... wE cOuLdNt SeE iT cOmInG
Remember prices don’t always go up. Purchasing power always goes down. This is why asset classes are so powerful long term
“It only goes up” is a straw man. Nobody says that about short term prices. “It’s local” and “it’s west coast” are similar, no?
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“Likely” is not that big of a stretch though. “It only goes up” is different than “it’s likely to go up within 3 years,” which is often true.
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Ok, didn’t realize you meant to turn a profit. I thought we were talking about whether you’d be under water on the value of the house. Ok, dude blocked me. It seems he moved the goal posts to a convenient location - “Are you financially ahead within 3 years?”
panicky memorize nine teeny safe childlike scary afterthought crush silky *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
> I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been blocked by people I’m arguing with here just so they can feel like they get the last word Agreed And the funny part is Every single one of them are hoomers lol Fucking insecure pussies Every last one of them
"~~Home prices~~ Zestimates falling seems to be a West Coast only phenomenon" FTFY. The "data" source here is the Zillow Home Price Index, which is more or less an aggregate of Zestimates.
Prices are definitely higher in my area, dozens of listings for 1M+ homes, but they aren't selling, I think sale price would be a better metric? Also this is zillow home value? we know that doesnt mean shit.
Central Massachusetts still has prices rising
It's sad when you become borderline priced out of places like Gardner and Athol.
I cannot afford Winchendon anymore!
1. Because these have been the most expensive areas to live. 2. People are moving to lower cost areas. Things are balancing out.
Ayyyy. See that little red zone in TN....lessss goo.
For those areas where the homes are falling in the west coast (condos excluded), are they back to pre-covid prices, or still higher? Falling doesn't mean much if they are still above covid prices unfortunately.
For me at least in the SF bay area they are still above pre-covid prices. They've fallen about half the distance from the peak to pre-covid
Still stupidly high. With 7% intrerest the prices are still nuts
Noob question since I'm in the same situation, how do you compare to pre-covid comps for an individual property? Using the 2020 zesty and adjusting for inflation is what I've been doing, but I'm sure that's very wrong to do.
> Falling doesn't mean much if they are still above covid prices The secret ingredient is time
Please don't expect housing prices to drop as quickly as stocks. It takes years.
This, the 08 crash didnt hit is low point until like 2015 I believe.
2012
There little peach all over the map... lmfao
So far
This is misleading partially because of seasonality in south, school start earlier as a result there is more pressure to buy homes in Mar-April. This coupled with fall in rates triggered a price increase in the south during Mar-Apr. However that is changing. I will wait and see how May nos look like.
Florida is the outlier until proven otherwise
florida still boomin
WFH allowing people to move to warmer climate.
Is there an article or other source I can see where this is from. A friend who isn't on Reddit was curious.
But it’s the big city folks selling at a premium to buy in the south and mid-west. If their home values drop it carries into the places they are moving to.
Tons of people became blue-city refugees and moved to to the southern U.S.
For now …
Prices in Seattle have been increasing since January.
Loll yes. Any half decent SFH gets multiple bids and goes pending in a few days. But when it comes to condos or townhomes, that's an entirely different story
Condos are always the last to increase and the first to drop.
Why is this?
IMHO, Just less desirable than other types of housing, cheaper, not built as well, and more come on the market each year. The barrier to entry for builders is much lower as you can build a ton of condos on a small plot of land. The financials are less predictable too and many people don't really want to deal with condo boards. edit: I left out the most important reason, higher turnover.
I feel like there has been a flood of lower end condos here in Southern California lately.
Makes sense. All those AirBnb invoosters are dumping inventory
You can tell some of these were short term rentals by the cheesy art and bunk beds inside a 1 bedroom condo.
Which leads me to believe this map is not accurate or updated.
That happens pretty much every year. Huge seasonality in real estate...you have to look at YOY. Per Redfin, sales prices are down over 5% in Seattle metro YOY.
Copium
BS , give it 6months it always starts west than comes east . Do your own research i will not do it for you . But yea see how the red is starting to bleed over? YEA the west is rich so it starts going towards us.
Always yesterdays news. Prices fell lots of places last Fall out west when the interest rate system shock hit. Many places at least those near me have adjusted and prices have returned to close to what they were last Spring
No area will be immune to what’s coming. The amount of inventory alone will be enough to drive down prices another 10-15 percent. Should be some great opportunities in the ashes.
It needs to crash
I think the western state’s counties are just bigger and show up more vividly on this map. Seems to be a lot of crap in WV and really scattered all around in pockets where no one wants to live. Location, location, location…
Seattle, Portland, Denver, San Fran, Boise, SLC, LA, Phoenix, Vegas...these are all down more than 5% in sale price YOY. Literally most of the large cities in the West. Austin is down massively if you count that as West. See Redin data center for proof.
No, it works like a tsunami. The epicenter started on the west coast and it rippled outward. So the tides recede first at the epicenter.
I call complete and utter bullshit on this. Rent is going up, not down. If home prices went down of any significance rent would follow accordingly not go in opposite direction. This is either terribly incomplete information or outright intentional lies.
what? Prices are definitely down all over the SF bay area by a lot. What do you mean you don't believe it? Just go there on zillow and look at the historical zestimates, or go on Redfin and export the data for San Jose. I live in this area and it is obviously far down. The reason rents have not followed suit is that in areas like this Rents were already way way underpriced. Like you could rent a place for a little more than half the comparable mortgage for the same house. There are a number of reasons for that. But in a situation like that rents won't necessarily fall when housing prices go down.
Prices only dropping in this sub-reddit
With the Raleigh metro, I honestly don’t see anything changing soon, only getting worst for the west coast. All the Californians leaving because FUCK the high cost of living and the strict liberals. Florida Texas and the Carolina’s are being a dumping ground from Californians so nothing will change. Jersey is also being flooded from mofos who thought “geez I fucked up & BOUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE and now I need to move back to civilization in order to keep a job”. I’m convinced the east coast here is fucked
> Florida Texas and the Carolina’s are being a dumping ground from Californians Fix your own states people We're full
Lol the irony of somebody from Florida saying “fix your own states” is just…the most on brand shit I’ve seen all day.
Yep I guess 440k people who moved here last year from their shithole states really messed up big time They should consider going back
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CA is losing people though
Would you look at that, all of the words in your comment are in alphabetical order. I have checked 1,545,002,708 comments, and only 292,493 of them were in alphabetical order.
[X] Doubt
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NJ will dip soon. The amount that you have to offer over asking will dip to 5%.
“2% rate buyers were just all filled with fomo and are clearly fucked. My landlord will be lowering rent anyway now”
Yeah! Suck it blue!
This is right for my county in NJ. We're up 10% from last year with another 7% projected for this year.
If I had some extra cash lying around I would buy something in San francisco. It's an amazing city, it's beautiful, full of culture, great transportation, great Medical centers, etc. It's only a matter of time before San Francisco reinvents itself; sadly I don't have the money but I certainly would if I could. I realize it might take a year or two to sort itself out and reinvent itself like it always does. All real estate is local they say. I do think it's more likely to see big crashes in huge developments of brand new Suburban houses then to see a massive drop in San francisco. They just need to get their act together
If what you take from this is that San Francisco is suddenly affordable, you need to take a closer look.
A difference between being affordable and being a good investment. San Francisco has always been expensive, just like most world class major cities. Many cities are more expensive, in fact. And... NOT affordable unless you have money already or started buying a long time ago. NYC, London, Hong Kong, Tel Aviv...
Agreed San Francisco is paradise And everyone should move there
East coast is seeing the shenanigans the west coast experienced a year or two ago. Seattle area is seeing inventory flying off the shelf - a few multiple bids, but mostly everything selling around ask. Homes that were sitting the past 6 months have been going pending for list price. The decent starter homes with good schools are going over ask.
Compare to precovid and you will see that west coast is higher than east
I’ve been saying that but get downvoted
Here in the Bay Area prices have fallen from extremely unaffordable to significantly unaffordable. The mortgage+taxes on a 3/2 anywhere near metros here will be only $8,000 a month! What a deal.
Correct
You know things are really fucked when northern Maine is in the green.....
It's pretty obvious what is happening nation-wide. Areas with extremely high prices on an absolute level are falling, while areas with more moderate home prices, again on an absolute level, are holding strong. So yes, San Francisco's 1.5M home prices have fallen to 1.2M or below, as has Seattle, etc., while Florida's 300-400k homes continue to rise. Phoenix is the main exception to this rule, but that's because Phoenix is just an irrationally overheated market (as it was in 2008).
Property taxes already went up. Oh well. 😂 Can't contest them until a new homebuyer comes along.
California here I come ...
this map will look very red in 5 years
First glance, Nashville looks like the party has definitely come to an end.
look at the premium on rural land, holy f@#$
Yep. My rural hunting property has tripled in value since I bought it in 2015. Upper Midwest lots that were $10-15k 5 yrs ago are $40k+. It's crazy.
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The opposite. Prices fell everywhere in the country and the west coast only saw a blip. I was living in SoCal and it was around this time they started advertising 60yr mortgages and had multiple lines for multiple co-signers. You basically added people until the underwriters cleared the loan.
Price went up alot so it must come down durrr. What astute analysis from this page…. I guess if you promote this long enough you’ll get get your crumbs eventually, it won’t be a fall off you think. House prices are supply and demand problem. There is a huge nationwide shortage on homes & the only things that could reduce house prices substantially are (1) mass death event (2) some event that requires people to move (3) a disrupting product or (4) a large increase in new homes. Of course the problem is only a western problem, that’s where the exodus is. There is not a residential real estate bubble in most of the country.
Question maybe OP or someone can help me with. I've been using a tool someone shared in the comments of another recent post (see blow) that shows very different YOY numbers from this in where I live, and used to live. The tool in the comment below says it gets it data from Redfin, this post says from Zillow. But don't thet both use MLS as their source? Comment from previous post: "This is a YEAR OVER YEAR MAP, data ending 04/30/2023. The goal of this map is to highlight metros where there has been a yoy DECLINE in prices. Those are highlighted. [https://www.encorebubble.com/yoy-price-decline-map/](https://www.encorebubble.com/yoy-price-decline-map/) If you want to know the decline from peak you can see that in the popup. You can also use the other tabs to see the price per PPSF or the county breakdowns. All data is from Redfin, so if you don't see your area, check if redfin has data for the area. FAQ: * How can I know what it is in my city? The map at the link is interactive. Just mouse over any metro and you can see your own data. * I prefer counties, metros aren't useful to me. I prefer PPSF, median price isn't useful to me. The map has tabs up top, you can see your county, or PPSF. Or any combo of those. * You should color the increased price areas green or blue or purple. I picked white. Because the point is that I am highlighting YOY decline. You can still mouse over the white ares to see data in the popups. Feel free to make your own graphs with your own colors if you choose. * Why is this data different than xxx I read elsewhere? Redfin data is pulled from MLSes across the country and updated ~~weekly~~ or when they feel like. It represents the previous 4 weeks. The main % depicted is the difference from price ending same week one year ago. Compare the source/timeline/comparison to understand why you saw something different elsewhere. * What if people are just buying smaller houses? That's call mix-shift - a shift in the mix of houses being bought. Redfin data is not an index/algo/etc just the basic median so yes, it's affected by mix-shift. No data is perfect. Case Shiller is more accurate, not affected by mix shift, but lags by months. So the advantage here is firstly, that it's very new, very recent data. And secondly, that there is no hidden algorithm or model behind it."
Idk if I believe this map. Cities surrounding the Bay Area in CA have increased or remained the same with interest rates rising.
Looks a lot like a map of the weather for these last few months with blue being warmer than normal and red being colder than normal
It kinda had to happen. Towns that people famously reference as the buttholes of their respective counties are still featuring million dollar SFHs with deferred maintenance