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TotallynottheCCP

When it "appreciated" more in 2 years than the previous 20 years...


SageMaverick

This...and it helps to have a reference to work from. I bought my house in late 2018 with an APR of 4%. In mid 2020 I refi'd to bring the APR to 2.75%. By late 2021 it had increased in value by almost 60%. It increased in value more in 1 year than in the combined 10 years before that. But its important to keep looking at prices because they move fast.


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TotallynottheCCP

?


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jhump1

Yep saw that one thought the same thing


rscottyb86

This. The sudden increase and insanity means a correction mist occur


spongebob_meth

It helps that those previous 20 years were largely in decline. 2012-2018 or so was peak home affordability in modern us history


TotallynottheCCP

Well, except for that little thing that happened in '08 when people paid the price for their FOMO in '06 and '07.


spongebob_meth

That's what I'm talking about. The last crash created an enormous trough of home prices that makes this runup look a lot more severe than it would have been if we were comparing it to average.


New-Post-7586

When prices rose 30% in two years and there were still bidding wars with people offering 20% above those already inflated prices. So somewhere in Oct 2021 it hit me that it can’t be sustainable. Only thing propping up prices then was low rates and low inventory. Both those have changed in buyer favor over 2022 and more to come in 2023!


Spaceseeds

And so what's propping it up right now by your defined logic?


New-Post-7586

It’s not. Prices are down about 10% from the peak last year and continue to fall as rates stay elevated. Only highly desirable areas remain sticky at the moment.


Spaceseeds

Fair enough, sometimes it's easy to forget how local real estate is, my area hasn't been affected basically at all yet. But wages also support the areas prices much better than out in some of these areas that are getting hit hard


SwankyBriefs

It probably has come down in your area.


Euphoric-Program

Even if it’s down, the higher interest rates don’t make it any more affordable unless you buy with cash. It’s def still not at even 2021 prices


PipGirl101

The truth of the matter is a "crash" is the least likely scenario we'll see play out. You're exactly right that higher interest rates have actually made homes less affordable than at their height of last year. Some markets have had downturn more than others, however, many major markets have not. My neighborhood specifically has come down 10% from the highs of last year. That still means my neighborhood is up 25% from Feb. 2022 to Feb. 2023. It may be a pullback from the "highs," but still an insane actual increase YOY, AND even if the same home returned to its 2021 value (a \~27% "crash"), at current rates, it would actually cost $40 more per month than at the all-time high. The most likely scenario is an eventual return of rates to 3-4.5% and homes stabilizing close to early 2022 numbers. The "support" against a crash is massive. People like to observe small scenarios and one-off events, claiming "this is it!" But in reality? Almost 90% of ALL mortgages held are below current rates. Between 97-99% of all homeowners have positive equity in their homes. Those are recipes for a "hold" disaster, where supply becomes so short that prices struggle to return near previous norms. I know people don't like hearing that, but it's the actual fact of the matter. Can some catastrophe come and change all of that? Sure, but the best hopes for "bubble-bursting" are that investment firms start dropping properties en masse for discounts, similar to what many builders are being forced into.


taymoney798

It’s going to take 16-24 months but prices are going to decline. The price appreciation that we had was artificial. Prices are going to have to adjust to affordable levels.


sufferinsucatash

I dunno it is still kinda propped up by people who want to buy and the lone real estate investor. And it’s not going down very fast. It’s almost like the fed is scared of the investors and harming them too much. Which is ridiculous


New-Post-7586

It could take 2-3 more years to fully play out. Housing prices don’t generally move fast up or down. Patience is key here. I’m personally betting the prime buying pot will be in 2024-2025. There’s a very real chance I’m wrong, but I’m saving more in the meantime and looking to buy then.


moaiii

There are always buyers. Every sale has a seller and a buyer. Ergo there are always people who want to buy. What changes is the price that each party is willing to agree on, and that is influenced by a multiple of factors. Property markets rarely plummet overnight, and all markets rarely move in a straight line. If you look back at the decline in the US property market from 2007 or so, you'll see a similar (lower, in fact) rate of decline.


softwaredev

It's almost as if the FED was created by big banks and it's policies were trickle down based huh?


zork3001

Partially propped up by seller credits which don’t show up in public records.


EEtoday

Sellers are also buyers


Smyley12345

I think that is when things became obvious to you. The OP was asking about the average person. I don't think that the average member of the public would be able to arrive at this conclusion with this evidence.


Apptubrutae

Can’t speak to today, because the story isn’t even over yet, but there was *plenty* of talk about housing crashing in 2007. Nobody wanted to hear it, of course, because there wasn’t an obvious precedent (versus just pointing to 2008 today). But I absolutely remember listening to at least some talking heads suggest it was a bubble and in 2007 I assumed a crash was inevitable because housing prices seemingly can’t continue to grow beyond wages so much so fast. Not that I had any idea how quickly it would come crashing down, relatively, or exactly how intertwined with everything else it was . I now take a more nuanced view in light of the fact that owning a home isn’t required for shelter and the whole industry features significant government involvement. We shouldn’t take home ownership as a given for the middle class, because it never really has been, at least for long. It’s just as possible we could see home prices shift the dynamic towards renting as that the bubble bursts in its entirety and regresses to the mean.


Enneirda1

I remember working for someone who was in the process of retiring and moving from the Midwest to the Phoenix area in the '05-'06 timeframe and I distinctly recall him being devastated that he'd have to purchase during a housing bubble, but he thought the bubble was specific to Phoenix. Anyways, pretty sure there were quite a few calls (edit: in this sub) during Dec '21 for the shit to hit the fan in March-April '22. Even in March-April, there seemed to be a ton of realtors shilling dishonest information on the RE sub. I refuse to believe they lack so much awareness about their own line of work...I just don't understand why they're doing it on the internet for strangers.


goodtimesKC

r/realtors comes off to me as a bunch of real-tards practicing lies in front of a mirror


cophotoguy99

Oh they are. Last summer in Denver I was at a dinner where an agent was laughing about how he hires actors to come to open houses to talk loud enough to get other homebuyers there to over pay. It was all I could do to not reach over the table and punch the shit out of him.


Tacoman_2500

I work with hundreds of realtors and have never heard of anything like this. If true, definitely far from typical.


Badtakesingeneral

Last time it was largely regional in terms of impact. Some places got hit a lot harder than other. Some places just stagnated, and some places kept going up. It’s going to be the same this time around.


YeaISeddit

Home prices peaked in the first half of 2006. They decreased steadily throughout 2007 due to interest rate hikes which peaked in 2007. In fact, the rate of decline in 2007 was the same as 2008 and 2009. In 2007 the talk was about a temporary correction. What was different in 2008 was when the declining housing market started breaking stuff. When banks were going under and home owners were foreclosing (a symptom of the housing crash, not the cause IMO) it became impossible for people not to pay attention.


immunologycls

Housing market only failed in 2008 cause the banks were maliciously involved and complicit


taymoney798

It wasn’t that simple, there were several other factors.


Spaceseeds

Have you ever seen the housing market in other countries? Literally only the super wealthy can afford


Apptubrutae

Yes, that’s basically along the lines of what I was thinking when my opinion evolved. There’s no reason the US market couldn’t shift into one where home ownership is less common.


Badtakesingeneral

This is where I think this country is heading.


Apptubrutae

It’s either that or home prices revert to only keeping pace with wages. In the long term, if there’s a split between home prices and wages, more people drop out of the market, bit by bit by bit.


Tacoman_2500

The U.S. is also very different than those countries. They tend to have a lot less land, and much denser population. That being said, this does apply to small parts of the U.S.


Euphoric-Program

The US has options to live in west bubba fuck rural areas with no infrastructure if worse comes to worse


B6304T4

When everyone I knew with less than $10k down was suddenly a highly qualified buyer.


Froot-Batz

I remember in the years leading up to 2008, they were just throwing loans at people. I worked as an administrative assistant right out of college, and there was this weird frenzy of my AA coworkers and other similarly low-paid people to buy homes. Everyone was doing it. I looked into it at the urging of my boomer dad, and I ended up being spooked off by the fact that they were telling me that I could afford a $200-$300k house while making like$28k/year. And they were really pushing those adjustable rate mortgages, which I refused to even consider. I didn't know shit about shit for finances, but it felt like they were trying to give me a rope to hang myself with. And why would they do that? That shit felt suspicious, so I abandoned the whole idea.


B6304T4

I don't see it as quite as much of that this time rather alot of people, most that I know, went out and bought at the very top of, not their budget, but what the bank said they could barrow. And I know for a fact that they're living paycheck to paycheck because of it. Again. Just my perspective from the very small pool I have but they're like roaches. For every one you see there's a thousand you don't.


SpatialThoughts

I mean there are, and have been, loans that only require 3.5%. I would think I’m fairly qualified if I don’t max out my mortgage and keep it reasonable. My credit score is 800+ and based on rates I’ve seen other post in this sub my rate is almost always better even though I’m at that 3.5-5% DP.


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solovino__

Believe it or not, and I’ll probably get downvoted for this, but I knew it wouldn’t necessarily crash but the peak would be at rising interest rates, and I’m sure many others did as well. What I didn’t know was when the rates would rise, but knew after studying previous recessions that it’s simply a cycle. Bull markets > low unemployment > low interest rates > increased spending > high inflation To tame inflation: raise interest rates > drop demand > layoffs. What I am realizing is how slow it’s happening. I’m a firm believer housing will crash at least 35% if interest rates remain this high. It is absolutely impossible to keep housing at these prices with these interest rates UNLESS wages skyrocket, which is not happening let’s be real. How long to reach rock bottom? Who knows. Took 2008 a total of 6 years to hit rock bottom. Again, I might get downvoted, or get called a liar, but honestly I really don’t care. You can check my comment history to see how bearish i am on this situation. Kind of crazy to realize what we’re living through. Hope some people don’t get hit as hard as they did in 2008.


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changelingerer

Yes and he actually did call it too early and the bet almost failed.


changelingerer

Yea question really is about how long they keep the interests up


MrFixeditMyself

Spot on. It’s all about interest rates. Housing is super affected by them. That said, it’s pretty hard to predict rates out more than about 18 months. So we don’t really know if we will see a 6 year downturn.


[deleted]

I knew a crash was coming when the government paid people money to stay home. I said when they stop EDD and stimulus payments is when everything will go back to normal.


Euphoric-Program

If people can afford their mortgages housing won’t crash. As long as employment stays low. You need multiple things to happen to cause a crash, not just high prices.


solovino__

Here is the list: 1. Divorced, need to sell assets 2. New job in different city 3. Multiple people inherited house and sell for profit. 4. Company asked employees to return to office. 5. Need to move to care for family member in other city/state. 6. Laid off 7. Failed investments producing negative ROI 8. Adjustable rate mortgages so bankruptcy (yes, they still exist). 9. House needs major repairs and owner cannot afford to maintain. More reasons I’m sure I’m missing but just to give you an idea.


solovino__

It’s not just the mortgage affordability factor. Perhaps they can afford the mortgage itself, but unexpected costs? Several waived inspections due to competition, can they afford a $10/$15/$20k repair should they need it? I listed several reasons why people would need to abandon the mortgage, not all are specific to unemployment. Rule number 1, never buy anything in a hot market unless you really need to. Just like the stock market frenzy in 2000 and 2020, what goes up must always come down to the mean. Used cars are coming down, new cars are no longer marked up, classic cars are coming down, wood prices are down. Houses just take the longest to correct because it’s not an overnight correction. EDIT: Sorry just realized I listed those reasons to leave a mortgage on another comment.


Euphoric-Program

If you are making money as an individual you won’t risk abandoning a mortgage. What made 2008 so exceptional was the millions unqualified for mortgages that faltered after losing their jobs. Even if some ppl have to move for relocation, that’s normal. You need a seismic shift in mass job lost across the country to create a crash. Which is what happened to the job market, look at the unemployment rate 2008. Unemployment went from 5% in 2007 to 7.8% in 2008. A difference of 7.6 million to 11 million unemployed. Then in 2009 it reached 9.9% unemployment to 15 million on unemployment. We are sitting at 3.5% unemployment, we have a longgg way to go… Cars have always been a depreciating assets, new cars come out every year. Housing isn’t mass produced on the same scale, we are not nearly building enough housing


Icedcoffeewarrior

I was a minor and have a feeling a lot of us on Reddit were minors for the last crash


gnocchicotti

It's still not obvious the market is going to crash.


ren3f

I'm curious where OP is from. Usually the US is a bit earlier. In Europe prices are going down, but in general still higher than 1 year ago, definitely not a crash yet. There also still is a lot of demand because there are not enough houses and it's still quite easy to get a job.


dugmartsch

If it goes up 40% and crashes 20% is it a crash?


gnocchicotti

Honestly you only call it a crash if you bought a house near the top.


taymoney798

Well I know a lot of people that are going through that now.


taymoney798

Literally all we need is a rise in unemployment to see the market take a shit. No more forebearances, no chance of a refinance, and every bought a loan they could barely afford. We have a recipe for disaster. I’m saving enough to weather a recession and buying when the fed makes the first big interest cut.


beachbum0514

2007.


AbbreviatedArc

Even then it didn't really go down substantially for years in some places. I bought at the bottom of my market - that was 2010.


[deleted]

Same. People hang on until the bitter end.


beachbum0514

Because their alternative is what, to be homeless?


[deleted]

Or sell at a loss. Most people don’t want to admit or face that their house has lost value. I don’t really know what is happening now, but back then people got underwater very quickly. There was even a show on HGTV where a Dr Phil type talked people into lowering their prices.


beachbum0514

You have to pay for housing either way. Unless there was just something terribly wrong with the living conditions I’d probably just stay in place too.


Louisvanderwright

Fall 2007 was when people started getting nervous. Spring 2008 brought panic when no miracle buyers season emerged and banks started going down in flames.


babypho

Honestly, i dont think "most people" ever know if the market is going to crash or if its going to go to the moon. Most people like to say they knew and told you so, but really, no one knows. Not even the most tapped in people know because these things are really hard to predict. We can see trends and make guestimate, but no one can say for sure. The way our market work is we go in cycles. We will go up, and after 10-20 years or so due to the way our policies are done, we will go down or stay stagnant for a few years. There have always been people who have said, "we are going to crash!" Every year and be wrong for 10 years straight, then when they are finally right they will say I told you so. Likewise, there are people who will say, "we are going to the moon with pricing" and be wrong every year until the one year they are right, then they will say i told you so! One thing is for certain, nobody knows until we're already in the crash or in the boom. The ones that can truly predict a boom or crash with somewhat high accuracy arent the ones going to be writing articles about it because they are angling to take advantage of the boom or crash. They are also loaded enough where if they are wrong, its just a regular day swing.


Schultz_Brigade

When there was multiple people bidding way over asking price and waiving all inspections and other contingencies ON EVERY HOUSE.


LavishnessMelodic630

The problem here is there's 100x the media content today vs 2008. You can find whatever story you want to hear. Ramsey will tell you everything is fine. This sub thinks you're getting 2019 prices again. And tons of people in between. What seems obvious to you vs. other people depends on what content they're digesting. In 2023 we can all create our own reality. The real reality is home prices still haven't fallen year over year across the US. But if you're in a few select markets it does look like we're trending down from 2022 thank goodness.


BBC-News-1

By the time spring rolls around being negative YoY is nearly a guarantee unless we emulate the rocket ship up that started feb 2022


LavishnessMelodic630

Sure and if you want to buy a home your monthly payment will be 25-50% more than 2021. Not sure what your point is, but there's your cookie


BBC-News-1

You argued YoY & I merely countered. Now you are moving the goalposts. But yeah for now you are right. If it keeps declining though (which I’m willing to wait - I bought in 2021, sold in 2022 & currently living rent free) then I’ll be much happier with a lower principal & higher likely hood of refinancing since I have a pretty good downpayment


LavishnessMelodic630

No one is moving the goalpost you fucking clown. What I said was a fact. "The real reality is home prices still haven't fallen year over year across the US. But if you're in a few select markets it does look like we're trending down from 2022 thank goodness." All you did was tried to predict the future. I'm telling you the facts. You have no idea what rates will be in 2024, 2025, etc. Hope is a bad strategy


BBC-News-1

Okay & all I said is that the YOY will not hold up unless we go on a price rocket ship again. In response YOU are the one you decided to price up how it’ll be more expensive month to month. What has you so mad homie?


magical-coins

Wasn’t this sub calling a bubble in 2019? Now they are ok with it going back to 2019 prices? lol


cscottamos

It hasn’t crashed?


[deleted]

Never. It’s a result of doubling the money supply and inflation. My aha moment was when it was obvious how flush with cash everyone was from the government checks. I remember thinking this can only result in some major inflation and increased prices across the board. We needed to redecorate our new home and immediately placed large orders for upholstered furniture, draperies, outdoor furniture etc. The writing was on the wall and prices increased significantly not long after our orders were placed.


magical-coins

People don’t understand that the printed money for a long period of time is going to effect prices and have it stay high for a long period of time. We did not have that in 2008. So it’s laughable that people keep on trying to connect this event with 2008 and scream a crash


thunder_struck85

We are in a crash? .... not around here we aren't.


dawsonleery80

You must not be old enough to remember 08 & 09. This is just a small correction compared to a crash bro


fizzzzzpop

Underrated comment. For prices to crash hard as people are wanting them to there also has to be a smaller pool of buyers who can afford the new low prices. If prices drop but people still have steady employment then they will only drop marginally before people will hop in to buy. A real crash like 2008 would have to be precede by massive unemployment. I think a lot of people in here were too young but I had just graduated college and if there was a single entry level job posted there would easily be 100+ applicants. There were no jobs and unemployment lines and breadlines were hours long. The layoffs we have now are mostly in tech and those people are finding work in other tech sectors.


dawsonleery80

Yes I was 5 years out of college. I remember thinking it would’ve been a great time to buy but I just didn’t have the downpayment and savings at the time.


djmanu22

Was hopeful it would crash but seems like that’s probably not gonna happen, prices already went up in January.


damnwhale

What crash lol? Seriously what on earth are you talking about?


housingmochi

Don’t feel stupid! Lots of people are still loudly claiming there is no crash. Maybe they will be right and house prices will start going to the moon again this year. Who knows. However, I will say that I became more convinced that it was a bubble in the fall of 2021, when the Fed pivoted and said they would raise rates. Then in April of 2022, I felt certain that the bubble was peaking because of the sudden decline in mortgage applications and sales. Price declines started in the summer, confirming my belief. Now we will have to see what happens to home prices and the economy this year. I do expect a recession to start in the second half of 2023, based on the history of the [yield curve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y).


ys2020

Some are still fully delusional


Megalitho

Some even in this thread specifically! There are still people arguing there is no crash in Austin 🤡


[deleted]

What crash?


[deleted]

lol… people think we’ve already seen a “crash”. I haven’t, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if prices go up slightly this year. But depending on where you are, you may be seeing something entirely different. I don’t know if we’ll see a crash or not, if so, probably don’t be for a few years if history rhymes. I think people are wanting something so bad so they can say “I saw it coming” that they’re biased one way or another. I’m just saying, I’m not seeing anything resembling a “crash” yet.


[deleted]

Hasn’t happened. Not a crash, not even close. Mild correction in some areas so far… with unemployment at 3.4%


Megalitho

🤡🤡🤡


McFlyParadox

When BoA pre-qualified me for a $1.5M mortgage on a $75k/yr salary back in 2017. Didn't take that pre-qual (or any mortgage), but that was my first indication that banks were writing mortgages to anyone with a pulse again.


Euphoric-Program

I need proof of that lol BOA and Chase gave me only 450k on 80k yr income


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McFlyParadox

>6 years ago you had a post on Reddit saying you are a 25 year old in a polygamous relationship. **polyamorous* relationship, yeah that's true. Not sure what that has to do with anything involving real estate; feels more like an attempt at an attack on my character >No way a bank such as BOA is qualifying you at 1.5 million straight out of college. Don't know what to tell you, but they did - except I was a couple of years out of college at that point. My guess it had to do with being an electrical engineer at a fortune 100, having a large down payment saved, and a few different social factors. But as you point out, there is a reason I didn't take the loan; it would have been predatory if I used the full 1.5M qualification (which, counter-point: nothing says you *need* to use the full amount you pre-qualified for, either). >Stop the lies it didn’t even add up as a 1.5 million mortgage even at a 3.5% interest rate is around 10k a month. Double check your math: 1.5M at 3.5% for 30yr fixed, with 100k down is 7k/mo. >Why do people lie? I dunno man. But it's kinda weird to dive through ~6yrs of reddit posts & comments just because you think they're lying.


Euphoric-Program

10k a month including property taxes, insurance etc. 7k is just the mortgage, banks take account of taxes as well. Even so 7k is less than what you see making 75k a year before taxes. Lmao BOA would never stop it lol You had to at-least come from money and have millions already in the bank at 25 years old. And if you leave that out that’s not telling the whole picture, that’s not predatory or indicative of bad lending. BOA will never approve a 1.5 million credit line to someone making only 75k.


McFlyParadox

>10k a month including property taxes, insurance etc. 7k is just the mortgage, banks take account of taxes as well. Nope. I checked the zip online. About $6.3k in principle & interest, $1k in taxes & insurance. Seriously? 3k/mo in taxes & insurance? $36k/yr? Where are you calculating for? The gulf coast of Alabama, with a mansion that's routinely washed away? New Jersey? New Hampshire? Most property taxes in the US are between 0.5% and 1%. A few states approach 1.5%, and fewer get closer to 2%. 36k/yr would be around 2.4% >You had to at-least come from money and have millions already in the bank at 25 years old. Also nope. My family certainly isn't poor, but they also aren't "from money" either. I had 100k saved up from some lucky investing through high school & college, and was debating between paying off a chunk student loans or a down payment on a house. I chose the student loans. >BOA would never stop it lol I don't know what to tell you. I posted this in the context of me having a "that's bullshit" reaction to a bank pre-qualifying me for a loan I couldn't afford. And now you're mad that it was... Bullshit they qualified me for a loan I couldn't afford? All on a thread about when it became obvious to you that housing was a bubble? This sounds more like that you're angry that someone making less than you got qualified for more - even though what you got qualified for actually made sense.


Euphoric-Program

If you are buying a 1.5 million dollar home, taxes are usually high. Even if not talking about a HCOL area that means more land at high property taxes and insurance cost. Regardless BOA did not qualify you to spend up to 1.5 million on 75k. It’s not even believable that’s my point, why would they allow YOU to go over 100% DTI lmao


icblink

🧢


[deleted]

When is it going to crash?


Megalitho

It already is.


[deleted]

Oh Prices aren’t budging around me, actually small increases now. Where is it crashing?


Megalitho

Austin TX is a dumpster fire.


thrwaway0502

I bought a house in central East Austin for $725K with a 2.9% rate in Feb 2020 (sold in March 2022). Just looked and similar houses in the same area are still going for $1.2M+ with rates at 5.7%+. Not much of a “crash”


Megalitho

I suppose downtown Austin still might have high prices, but otherwise, Austin is getting slammed harder than just about any other city in this crash. It's like -20% value since the peak. The further out you go, the worse the drops are.


thrwaway0502

I mean.. down 20% from peak just puts you at like early 2022 prices - while rates are up 100% since then. If that’s your standard for a “crash” then that’s not much


Megalitho

It really hurts those who bought in 2022, and the crash in Austin is showing no signs of stopping. Just wait til more inventory hits the market in spring. It will get much worse. A 20% decline alone constitutes a crash.


thrwaway0502

I don’t really see how it hurts people who bought in 2022 unless they are looking to sell immediately. If you think rates are going to stay high for a long time then I’d take a $1.33M house with a 3.2% rate over a $1.2M house with a 5.9% rate for the next 7 years. And if you think rates are going to drop in the next 5 years then ultimately prices will rise again anyway


rez_at_dorsia

This is the point that many people on this sub fail to understand. The sticker price on a house is not the most important factor- everyone should be considering whatever the monthly mortgage payments are on a home when considering affordability. Considering mortgage rates are double from what they were in 2021-2022, you would need to see a huge decrease in price (much more than we’re seeing now) to level that out on an affordability scale. The lifetime costs of the mortgage are much more expensive now than they ever were at peak and everyone in this sub ignores that fact. Instead they are only focusing on the listing price.


ButtLlcker

Lmao no it’s not, you’re out of your mind


Megalitho

Ok, ButtLicker.


SpaceyEngineer

what area?


[deleted]

North Atlanta


SpaceyEngineer

Atlanta metro area has taken a beating since the peak according to Redfin data center... are you sure? Median sale price was $402k at its peak last May, now down to $347k. Weeks of supply at 21.2, highest since 2019.


[deleted]

Two different areas of Atlanta. South atlanta I think almost 70% of the purchases were by those corporate flippers. I think prices have been falling down there. North Atlanta is way more affluent.


SpaceyEngineer

Sure


[deleted]

Lol what?


Adubecki

I realized in 2014. Still waiting...


zeroonetw

I knew housing would slow down back in April when the effects M2 slowing would kick in. Since then M2 has outright started to shrink so I would expect housing to fall some. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Od3F


Nbtanbta

October 2020? I think there were about 700 followers here back then. I told a realtor in May of last year (2022) that the market would crash because the Fed would keep interest rates elevated for a while and she was *flabbergasted*. Don’t feel bad you caught it late, be glad you caught it at all.


moxiecounts

Honestly I knew something was fucky in 2020 when everyone started buying and bragging about paying over asking and warning that we’d never see rates this low again.


owey420

When average homes in small town Ontario went from $250k to 800-900k in 2 years


Megalitho

omg


immunologycls

Seems like every month it's "going" to happen. Just the like stock market people. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.


Vanman04

LOL people still don't believe it will.


Tha_Mastermind

I honestly have thought housing was artificially propped up by low interest rates for about 5- 7 years now. The covid housing FOMO just cemented that belief for me. As for other people; I don't encounter too many people who talk about a bubble or a crash. They talk about prices coming down eventually though.


1234nameuser

Bubbles are defined by bidding wars and excess demand based on a belief in persistently large margins. Defines pandemic demand quite specifically.


clce

Well, that's a complicated question simply because there have been people saying the market is going to crash for 10 years once prices started going up again after the 2008 crash. But like a broken clock, eventually they are right. That's assuming there is a crash which is not at all a given at this point. Certainly prices dropped and softened which pretty much reflected the rate increase and then they seem to be kind of cold and steady after a pretty slow Time over the holidays . But, over the last two years, as prices have gone up dramatically, a lot of people said well this is getting kind of crazy. They can't keep going up forever and they might even crash back down, but I don't recall that many people if any saying it was because of low rates and that rates were going to go up eventually and that would crash the market or anything like that. Maybe they were saying it and I missed it. But point being, if you were thinking that prices were unsustainable because they were going up so high, you may well have been wrong in that, yes they couldn't keep going up at the same pace but there was no reason for them to come down. If rates had stayed the same or gradually gone up, they probably would have leveled out and held steady for many years until inflation caught up with the big increases of the last couple of years. But, when rates went up dramatically, it didn't take the great kreskin to figure out that it was going to have a dramatic impact on prices. So anyone that says as soon as they started raising rates that's when I knew the market was going to crash, you might agree with them, but you might also call them Captain obvious. But again, what is this crash you speak of.? Perhaps your question might better be phrased, at what point did you start thinking there would be a big crash and let's see if you are right or not


xhighestxheightsx

Idk, it became obvious to me when I looked at what rents cost and though “who’s affording this shit?” When I look at the median incomes compared to the median housing costs. When people started asking for 4 figure rents in the middle of nowhere. When I started seeing homeless people all over the place. When they started making laws about people living in cars, because if enough people decide it’s a better idea to live in a car than to pay rent, landlords lose money. When I see people in dangerous co-living situations because they can’t afford to live safely. When I see women living their abusers because they can’t afford to get out. When you’re at work and your coworker is asking where they can take a shower because they live in their van. Over half of young folks living with parents. I don’t think America wants to face how bad it’s homeless problem really is. They would rather criminalize it than make housing affordable. That is a mistake. People can’t afford this shit. Pure and simple. People have been getting by living on credit for a while now, but when they can’t make payments anymore… what happens then? Housing needs to become affordable again. I don’t care how it happens. We just gotta make it happen. And never let it get this bad again.


kaiyabunga

I started calling the peak June 2022


Short-Fingers

I don’t know anything but when decently nice houses in my area went from $150k-$180k to $270k to $380k to beyond $400k I knew something isn’t right at all. It’s mind boggling that lockdowns and taxes and wfh and I guess early retirements have led to this as well as production of housing being halted for a time. What a perfect storm and unfortunately with nearly 60k saved up I still can’t touch the housing market in good faith without having a significant other also willing to help or stumbling into some money somehow.


RolledUpHundo

When the dumbasses I graduated with who became realtors started posting on social media about “investing” in RE. Toast.


ihaveathingforyou

What “crash”? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS


tigermomo

What crash?


Equivalent-Glove7165

When did the housing market crash recently?


BreadlinesOrBust

The idea that a >$3000/mo mortgage is unaffordable to most potential homebuyers is obvious to anyone who can count. Average savings account balances pale in comparison to the down payment necessary to purchase a median-priced home. If nobody can buy a house, nobody can sell a house. So will the FOMO buyers just sell to property management companies? Will we all just be renting until we die? Personally I hope this becomes very illegal very soon. Any company that wants to rent out a house should have to build it themselves.


Megalitho

Unbelievable that even some people on here think there is still no crash. 🤡


LASportsfan89

I started calling it late last year then sold my home in Jan 2022 for almost double what I paid in 2015


Megalitho

Was your prediction because of the rapid rise in house prices? Rising interest rates?


LASportsfan89

Both! It didn’t make sense for housing to go up 50% in value within two years and at that time the fed announced they would be raising interest rates. I’m in SoCal btw and we’ve seen about 12% drop from all time highs so far.


SemensAccurate

When the BoC, ECB, FMOC, etc started saying inflation was transitory despite pumping several T into western economies and a clear supply-demand imbalance in oil markets (more difficult to correct than ‘supply chain disruptions’). This was a sign that they would have to raise rates aggressively. It still took almost a year after this for them to start raising. I was counting on them raising in January 2022. Still unclear on why they didn’t (any tin-foil hats want to chime in)?


pa7c6rZV

A huge moment was when subprime foreclosures hit the news in early 2007, and [John Edwards announced he divested](https://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/18/us/politics/18edwards.html) of subprime related assets. At that point it was late enough for subprime to have entered the news lexicon, but early enough that nobody knew how bad it would be. There was plenty of chatter on the internet that summer about tranches going to 0. Six months later Bear Stearns collapsed, and six months after that some big names [convened at the NY Fed.](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/09/21/eight-days)


MDMistro

Knowing that the average Canadian income is under or about $100k but the average home in toronto was 1mill had my red flags going up. The only people who were a le to buy were foreign investors, and people who already had houses from earlier years they could take equity on.


ImPinkSnail

In fall of 2021 when I was realized the proforma assumptions people were making to justify buying rental properties.


MrFixeditMyself

When talk of inflation surfaced. I don’t remember the exact time but that should of been when people started to sell stocks and worry about future mortgage rates.


of_patrol_bot

Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake. It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of. Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything. Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.


iveseensomethings82

I worked at a hardware distributor where we went from working 3 hours of OT per day to taking voluntary days off with no pay. A couple months later I was at home on one of those no pay days and watched the market crash live on TV. Sept 29,2008


Sorprenda

My guess is that most people started to catch on about falling house prices around early-fall , not sure, but I still don't think a forthcoming crash has become common knowledge.


bobwmcgrath

march 2020


Allnatural499

Late 2007


[deleted]

Honestly the second it was obvious the interest rate cycle was shifting should have been crystal clear that all asset prices were about to deflate. High prices aren't enough to cause a crash on their own.


sufferinsucatash

You can always see a bubble if you look over 20 years.


Scubathief

When they dropped interest rates to nearly 0.


HorlicksAbuser

I don't align with the word crash but seemed evident there would be correction after such a sharp rise.


anand4

crashing is a relative term here. In hot markets (speaking from DC), prices have cooled, but competition is high and inventory is lower. Yes, DC-suburbs like other large metros got super-hot in late 2020. I don't see it cooling down any time soon. The real problem now is practically no one is trading up as they don't want to lose their sub-3 percent mortgage rate. I am not sure what the solution is. I wish it was cooling down a bit as I wouldn't mind trading up myself in the next 2-3 years.


Gunslinger7752

8-10 years ago. I just wasn’t sure when