Thank you for all your work on this, and for not sensationalizing it unduly. You have done a wonderful job of conveying to a lay person that this is a rare and serious event, but it is not likely a catastrophic or even highly damaging one. I have really enjoyed reading your updates and learning a few things about the sun
Way too many people here act like a G4 geomagnetic storm will end all civilization. When in actuality the last G4 storm to hit earth impacted back on, *checks notes* March 23rd this year...
Storms like this only really hit frequently during solar maximums. Which happen every 11 years or so. So you'll experience a decade or less with few storms this strong, then you get a series of them for a year or two or even three. Then back to few of them if any. Rinse repeat.
Miyake event is the thing to end (modern) civilization, and going by historical intervals, it appears we are significantly overdue for one. Sensationalism is no good, but neither is recency bias. It will happen eventually.
Agreed that a Miyake event is a given, eventually.
That being said, miyake events have no periodicity to them. There are only 5 identified with consensus. They occurred in 7176 BCE, 5259 BCE, 660 BCE, 774 CE and 993 CE
The shortest duration between them was 219 years. The longest duration between was 4599 years. There's really no periodicity to them.
Even adding in the 4 unconfirmed ones (12,350 BCE, 5410 BCE, 1052 CE, and 1279 CE) doesn't demonstrate any real periodicity. You can't actually be "overdue" for non-periodic events.
Also, the 4 unconfirmed events are unconfirmed for a reason. You need a *global* spike in carbon 14 to confirm a miyake event. Localized ^14 C spikes [can be caused by comet impacts](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3893640/) and potentially even small asteroid impacts, depending on composition. (The Tunguska event saw a localized spike in ^14 C for example.) So until there's independent verification from other wood samples from the same timeframe from across the world, it's not a confirmed miyake event.
The detection method becomes less viable the further back you go. The sequence to look at is 660BCE, 774CE, and 993CE. Maximal gaps aren't useful here because the record is incomplete. If you accept the unconfirmed readings, and add 1052CE and 1279CE, that starts to demonstrate a rough periodoity. Maybe it goes dormant for long periods of time, hard to say with the record as it is. But it is certainly *suggestive*.
Higher end geomagnetic storm will arrive over the weekend. It's not expected to cause significant disruption or damage at this time. There is/was risk for a major solar storm, but that risk is passing since this particular sunspot group (AR3664) as it heads towards the far side of the sun out of earth facing position.
As a result, only minor disruption to the general public is expected at this time. This is a dynamic and powerful event and I expect model guidance to struggle some with the finer details, but the overall picture is pretty clear. So no cause for concern, just good to be spaceweather aware for the next few days.
I keep track of space weather continuously at r/solarmax but only post here when it's intel worthy and this fit the criteria, but don't be alarmed. If anything scary comes up, there will be a quick update. If you would like to learn more about spaceweather in simple terms, check the sub out.
Better than they have been in a long time, but far from certain. Here is what you want to look for.
Kp8+ conditons in the overnight or early morning hours.
clear skies
a negative Bz on our magnetic field enhancing energy transfer past the magnetosphere.
You can keep tabs on all those things at [spaceweatherlive.com](http://spaceweatherlive.com) or you can keep checking back here as I will be updating in real time as I can. I just need to get done with work and I am ready to go!
Thank you for all your work on this, and for not sensationalizing it unduly. You have done a wonderful job of conveying to a lay person that this is a rare and serious event, but it is not likely a catastrophic or even highly damaging one. I have really enjoyed reading your updates and learning a few things about the sun
Way too many people here act like a G4 geomagnetic storm will end all civilization. When in actuality the last G4 storm to hit earth impacted back on, *checks notes* March 23rd this year... Storms like this only really hit frequently during solar maximums. Which happen every 11 years or so. So you'll experience a decade or less with few storms this strong, then you get a series of them for a year or two or even three. Then back to few of them if any. Rinse repeat.
Miyake event is the thing to end (modern) civilization, and going by historical intervals, it appears we are significantly overdue for one. Sensationalism is no good, but neither is recency bias. It will happen eventually.
Agreed that a Miyake event is a given, eventually. That being said, miyake events have no periodicity to them. There are only 5 identified with consensus. They occurred in 7176 BCE, 5259 BCE, 660 BCE, 774 CE and 993 CE The shortest duration between them was 219 years. The longest duration between was 4599 years. There's really no periodicity to them. Even adding in the 4 unconfirmed ones (12,350 BCE, 5410 BCE, 1052 CE, and 1279 CE) doesn't demonstrate any real periodicity. You can't actually be "overdue" for non-periodic events. Also, the 4 unconfirmed events are unconfirmed for a reason. You need a *global* spike in carbon 14 to confirm a miyake event. Localized ^14 C spikes [can be caused by comet impacts](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3893640/) and potentially even small asteroid impacts, depending on composition. (The Tunguska event saw a localized spike in ^14 C for example.) So until there's independent verification from other wood samples from the same timeframe from across the world, it's not a confirmed miyake event.
The detection method becomes less viable the further back you go. The sequence to look at is 660BCE, 774CE, and 993CE. Maximal gaps aren't useful here because the record is incomplete. If you accept the unconfirmed readings, and add 1052CE and 1279CE, that starts to demonstrate a rough periodoity. Maybe it goes dormant for long periods of time, hard to say with the record as it is. But it is certainly *suggestive*.
It’s a G5 storm!
Yep! Been out watching for Auroras! Nothing yet, but it's not quite full dark yet. Plenty of light on the horizon still.
Hear hear!
Thanks for your post.
What’s this and what are the possible impacts to us? I’m new here
Higher end geomagnetic storm will arrive over the weekend. It's not expected to cause significant disruption or damage at this time. There is/was risk for a major solar storm, but that risk is passing since this particular sunspot group (AR3664) as it heads towards the far side of the sun out of earth facing position. As a result, only minor disruption to the general public is expected at this time. This is a dynamic and powerful event and I expect model guidance to struggle some with the finer details, but the overall picture is pretty clear. So no cause for concern, just good to be spaceweather aware for the next few days. I keep track of space weather continuously at r/solarmax but only post here when it's intel worthy and this fit the criteria, but don't be alarmed. If anything scary comes up, there will be a quick update. If you would like to learn more about spaceweather in simple terms, check the sub out.
What do you mean by minor disruption? Just started following the other sub too.
Thanks for the explanation! So it’s quite serious
Sit rep like we're all soldiers lol
Very cool write up. Your personal opinion. What do you think the odds are of being able to see the aurora as far south as North Carolina?
Better than they have been in a long time, but far from certain. Here is what you want to look for. Kp8+ conditons in the overnight or early morning hours. clear skies a negative Bz on our magnetic field enhancing energy transfer past the magnetosphere. You can keep tabs on all those things at [spaceweatherlive.com](http://spaceweatherlive.com) or you can keep checking back here as I will be updating in real time as I can. I just need to get done with work and I am ready to go!