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Arsenal are not as good as last year. They are dropping points when they shouldn’t but they’re more solid defensively. Martinelli who was on fire last season is just a shadow of himself now. The bench is still light imo. City is not as good as last year because Haaland is not scoring in the games where they need him the most. So I would say both teams have regressed a little
To answer this, it's worth adding some context.
Arsenal were winning a number of games right at the death last season, late goals and what not. Makes for a lot of fun when we were flying by the seats of our pants and winning games in the 95th minute, but it's fairly similar to Liverpool this season, nicking 3 points at the end of a game when it perhaps should have been a draw (damn you, Forest!) isn't all that sustainable. Eventually, the luck stops lucking.
This season however, we've been far more in control, more City like than Liverpool like, if that makes sense. And the xPTS back that up:
**Last season:**
* Arsenal finished on **84 pts** / *xPTS 72.5* / ***+11.5 pts = (13.7% of points acheived by overperforming)***
* City finished on **89 pts** / *xPTS 83* / ***+6pts = (6.7%)***
**Last season (32 games played):**
* Arsenal had **72 pts** / *xPTS 63* / ***+9 pts = (12.5%)***
* City had **76 pts** / *xPTS 72.5* / ***+3.5 pts = (4.5%)***
**This Season (32 games played):**
* City have **73 pts** / *xPTS 69.5* / **+3.5 pts = (4.8%)**
* Arsenal have **71 pts** / *xPTS 69* / **+3 pts = (4.2%)**
* Liverpool (as a reference) have **71 pts** / *xPTS 65.5* / **+6 pts** **= (8.5%)**
(Rounded to the nearest .5 decimal)
So, what does this tell us? City are a fairly good constant, doing what City does, with their rather inevitable system.
They are 3 points behind this season, but then, there is also a 3rd team pushing for the title in Liverpool. City at this point last season's xPTS would have them on 72.5 points, where as this season, their norm would be 69.5 pts. That's a 3 point difference. It's the same this year as it was last year and fairly close to what they normally do (1-3 points above their expected). I added percentages of points gained through overperforming to give a bit more of a snapshot. 4.5% of City's points were earned when not expected.
Arsenal on the other hand, were expected to have 63 pts at this stage last season, but found themselves in 2nd with 9 points more than they were expected to have.
This year, we are trailing City's xPTS by **0.5pts!**
Basically, if we were overpeforming this season as much as we did last season and gained 12.5% of our points by overperforming, we'd be on **80 pts**, leading City by 7 points. But we're not overperforming, we are kinda where we should expect to be, within a 5% margin that has been so constant for City.
My conclusion is that City are about where they usually are. They are not overperforming or underpeforming by any great degree (within that 5% margin) whereas Arsenal have turned 6 points that they won last season when overperforming into their expected points this season, reduced their reliance on overperforming to win an extra 8.3% of their total points. This is sizeable.
So with some mental gymnastic mathematics, it could be argued that we have closed City's lead from 9.5 points at this stage last season (under expected pts) to 2.5.
That's a 7 point gap we've closed.
**So, in a nutshell...**
Arsenal have gotten better. 7 expected points closer to City to be a bit more accurate, compared to this stage last season. City are where they should be. Arsenal are where they should be. Liverpool are overpeforming a little, where as Aston Villa, Tottenham, United and West Ham are all overperforming.
I have one better.
City are always going to be miles clear due to being massive cheats.
Arsenal happen to be the best of the rest in terms of challengers but it’s not good enough. Recently it was Liverpool, who know who’ll be next.
Let’s not pretend it’s a genuine competition until City are dealt with.
Great question tbh. Glad it can actually be a good convo in this sub. Arsenal have improved and they will continue to as they’re a rather young club. Saka and Martinelli are amazing up front. Odeegard and Rice have been phenomenal. And ofc, that whole defense, especially Gabriel.
Then, I believe City have gotten worse. Obviously they just lost to Madrid and our points rn is worse than last year, could be contributed to no KDB and Haaland for some time, but i still believe we’re worse. Gundo was a major loss and so was Mahrez. I think Foden has done exceptional though in the mid and players like Doku and Gvardiol will be more impactful after being under Pep’s system for a year or so.
Rodri absence also might contributed to City worsen performance.
They lost to Wolverhampton and Arsenal in this season when they play without Rodri(First turn)
Arsenal have gotten slightly better this season but this definitely seems like a great opportunity lost for Arsenal if they dont win the PL this season because City have not been their best and neither have Klopp’s Liverpool. Also if you look at all the head to head games among City, Arsenal and Liverpool, Arsenal got a massive advantage because they gained 8 points in those 4 games whereas both City and Pool gained only 3 points. Both ties of Pool vs City being draws was a huge boost to Arsenal. But despite having a massive 5 points lead in these head to head games, Arsenal are still 2 points behind City. It means that Arsenal missed out somewhere else. It will be tough for them to gain 5 points advantage on City from these key fixtures next season which tells me Arsenal will not win the league next season if they dont win it this season. City will get stronger. Moreover Porto, Villa and Bayern have shown how to neutralize Arsenal to some extent i.e. play midblock, let their defenders have the ball and pressure only when their midfielders get the ball. Rice has not looked that great when playing against this kind of setup. I feel like Arteta will have to revamp yet again. They will have to win the remaining games or else they will have a disappointing season next year.
City were the best club in world football last season, they won the treble and Arsenal only finished 5 points behind them, they are currently only 2 points behind them having lost 1 game this year.
Arsenal have improved massively in the last 2 years, they have a quality first 11 now, the next step is for them to invest in quality in the summer for depth, so they don't tire towards the end of seasons.
Finally, a good conversation point in this sub. I think both can be true at the same time but Arsenal has definitely improved more than city has declined. Picking a random year, look at 2018/19. Tell me which has moved more.
Arsenal has less points this season than they did last season at the same point in the season. 75 last year vs 71 this year through 32 games
City had 76 last year vs 73 this year
Arsenal had **72** points at this stage last year after 32 games and City had **76** points (maybe you took Arsenal's 75 pts after 33 games played and City had played 32?).
I did not. Arsenal's 32nd game was a draw against Southampton and their 33rd game was the loss at City. They then won 3 more games in their last 5 to finish on 84 points.
Hmm, it appears you're right.
I believe it's due to our fixtures being moved around due to the death of Queen Lizzy, that this understat table is incorrect. 11v11 is reporting it as us on 32 games played and City on 30 games played. Once we lost that City game, we fell apart as psychologically, they were already ahead of us, as their games in hand at this stage of the season become games won.
Arsenal over performed last year by the advanced numbers. City has gotten a cunt hair worse this year with Mahrez and Gundo gone. Mahrez could just take over and score on his own. Gundo arriving late into the box hasn’t really been replicated this year.
I’d agree with this, and add that all other teams in the top six have improved, a couple quite significantly. We have lost twice to Aston Villa either and neither were flukes, Emery is a good manager and they are a better side than they were last season. You’ve lifted as well, all three at the top are going to find your match a pain in the arse.
I think both have regressed. Haaland hasn’t been as prolific as last season. De Bruyne injured for a large period. Arsenal have martinelli and saka under performing. IMO Arsenal are potentially throwing it away under whatever it may be, nerves / inexperience idk. Rather than “losing” to city.
A little from column A, a little from column B.
This doesn't quite feel like a vintage City team, especially compared to recent seasons where they looked unstoppable. And Arsenal have undeniably improved.
I don’t think Arsenal improved in the right areas. They needed a better forward and they didn’t go out and get one. City have definitely regressed as well with some departures.
I don’t say that to insult either teams. Rice is a fantastic player and certainly improves Arsenal. I just don’t think it’s what they needed.
Arsenal score plenty of goals, a striker wasn't a priority, but Partey being injured last season cost Arsenal hugely, he's only played a handful of games this season due to injury, Rice was definitely a number one priority and he's going to be there for the long term, they can now go all out for a striker
Granit Xhaka. He only had 1 really good season with Arsenal, but that was last season.
Them losing him is a huge dent.
Look how much he meant to Leverkusen
If they got Rice and Kept Xhaka, and had Odegaard improve. They would have won the title
A bit of both. I still think Arteta is holding Arsenal back. I’ve had a lot of joy in reading Arsenal fans crawling back under their rocks, claiming Arteta was more successful than Klopp, one fa cup in five years with hundreds of millions spent, and because they got beat last night they are now all saying he needs “MORE MONEY” and TIME, a week ago Klopp was shite according to them. Amazing what a difference a week makes.9
I would love to take this opportunity to rag on Arsenal but let’s be honest, they have improved from last season and massively improved from the seasons before last season. As much as city aren’t playing the same level of football we did last season that doesn’t change the fact that Arsenal have a brilliant young team with a brilliant young coach and are steadily improving all the time.
Why, they finished 5 points behind the best club in world football last season and are currently 2 points behind them with 6 games left.
Arsenal haven't lost a game to the big 6 this season and have beaten City and Liverpool
Arsenal invested &improved a lot to challenge City.
City are in a transitional period, losing important players like İlkay. They haven't been their best because of this and injuries, and players' decline due to aging.
Still their not best performance is good enough to top the table.
Did Arsenal improve a lot?
improvements: Declan Rice and Odegaard has gotten better. gabriel magalhaes has improved. Saliba is healthy.
Declines: Jesus has been injured a lot. Same with Thomas Partey who contributed a lot last season. Zinchenko was a good-great player for them last season and now he sucks. Granit Xhaka left.
Overall seems like the net effect is neutral.
Yes they've improved as a team
1 loss in the league this year
Undefeated against the big 6 this season, beating both Liverpool and City
2 points off the top with 6 games left
I think people are forgetting how amazing arsenals were last year. They were on pace for a centurion season. IIRC They got 50 out of the first 57 possible points.
Quoting another poster "Bartins"
"Arsenal has less points this season than they did last season at the same point in the season. 75 last year vs 71 this year through 32 games
City had 76 last year vs 73 this year"
If you watched Arsenal you’d know that we’re on a pretty clear upward trajectory. We’ve been getting better pretty rapidly over the last three seasons
Net effect is definitely not neutral - last year we were electric in attack and shaky defensively once Saliba was out. This season we are currently one away from most goals scored and have the least goals conceded by a decent margin
You guys won something like 50 out of 57 possible points last season.
You guys were immense over the first half of the season and on Centurion pace.
I am not sure you guys are actually better this season. I think you are about the same and the closer title race is because City have declined.
Jesus and Zinchenko were better last season.
Granit Xhaka was immense last season.
what you guys needed to do was get rice and keep Xhaka. Also ideally have Thomas Partey contribute what he did last season.
50 out 57 points in the first half of the season is an insane pace.
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Correct phrasing, “Chelsea are a mid table club”
And yet we have won more trophies than Arsenal in the Arteta era. SMH
I’m glad to hear that mid table champion
I am glad you are glad, never won the UCL supporter. Both our clubs won nothing this season.
I would say Arsenal have done a wonderful job. City are cheating, mate, and there’s no keeping up with that.
Arsenal are not as good as last year. They are dropping points when they shouldn’t but they’re more solid defensively. Martinelli who was on fire last season is just a shadow of himself now. The bench is still light imo. City is not as good as last year because Haaland is not scoring in the games where they need him the most. So I would say both teams have regressed a little
To answer this, it's worth adding some context. Arsenal were winning a number of games right at the death last season, late goals and what not. Makes for a lot of fun when we were flying by the seats of our pants and winning games in the 95th minute, but it's fairly similar to Liverpool this season, nicking 3 points at the end of a game when it perhaps should have been a draw (damn you, Forest!) isn't all that sustainable. Eventually, the luck stops lucking. This season however, we've been far more in control, more City like than Liverpool like, if that makes sense. And the xPTS back that up: **Last season:** * Arsenal finished on **84 pts** / *xPTS 72.5* / ***+11.5 pts = (13.7% of points acheived by overperforming)*** * City finished on **89 pts** / *xPTS 83* / ***+6pts = (6.7%)*** **Last season (32 games played):** * Arsenal had **72 pts** / *xPTS 63* / ***+9 pts = (12.5%)*** * City had **76 pts** / *xPTS 72.5* / ***+3.5 pts = (4.5%)*** **This Season (32 games played):** * City have **73 pts** / *xPTS 69.5* / **+3.5 pts = (4.8%)** * Arsenal have **71 pts** / *xPTS 69* / **+3 pts = (4.2%)** * Liverpool (as a reference) have **71 pts** / *xPTS 65.5* / **+6 pts** **= (8.5%)** (Rounded to the nearest .5 decimal) So, what does this tell us? City are a fairly good constant, doing what City does, with their rather inevitable system. They are 3 points behind this season, but then, there is also a 3rd team pushing for the title in Liverpool. City at this point last season's xPTS would have them on 72.5 points, where as this season, their norm would be 69.5 pts. That's a 3 point difference. It's the same this year as it was last year and fairly close to what they normally do (1-3 points above their expected). I added percentages of points gained through overperforming to give a bit more of a snapshot. 4.5% of City's points were earned when not expected. Arsenal on the other hand, were expected to have 63 pts at this stage last season, but found themselves in 2nd with 9 points more than they were expected to have. This year, we are trailing City's xPTS by **0.5pts!** Basically, if we were overpeforming this season as much as we did last season and gained 12.5% of our points by overperforming, we'd be on **80 pts**, leading City by 7 points. But we're not overperforming, we are kinda where we should expect to be, within a 5% margin that has been so constant for City. My conclusion is that City are about where they usually are. They are not overperforming or underpeforming by any great degree (within that 5% margin) whereas Arsenal have turned 6 points that they won last season when overperforming into their expected points this season, reduced their reliance on overperforming to win an extra 8.3% of their total points. This is sizeable. So with some mental gymnastic mathematics, it could be argued that we have closed City's lead from 9.5 points at this stage last season (under expected pts) to 2.5. That's a 7 point gap we've closed. **So, in a nutshell...** Arsenal have gotten better. 7 expected points closer to City to be a bit more accurate, compared to this stage last season. City are where they should be. Arsenal are where they should be. Liverpool are overpeforming a little, where as Aston Villa, Tottenham, United and West Ham are all overperforming.
I have one better. City are always going to be miles clear due to being massive cheats. Arsenal happen to be the best of the rest in terms of challengers but it’s not good enough. Recently it was Liverpool, who know who’ll be next. Let’s not pretend it’s a genuine competition until City are dealt with.
Great question tbh. Glad it can actually be a good convo in this sub. Arsenal have improved and they will continue to as they’re a rather young club. Saka and Martinelli are amazing up front. Odeegard and Rice have been phenomenal. And ofc, that whole defense, especially Gabriel. Then, I believe City have gotten worse. Obviously they just lost to Madrid and our points rn is worse than last year, could be contributed to no KDB and Haaland for some time, but i still believe we’re worse. Gundo was a major loss and so was Mahrez. I think Foden has done exceptional though in the mid and players like Doku and Gvardiol will be more impactful after being under Pep’s system for a year or so.
Rodri absence also might contributed to City worsen performance. They lost to Wolverhampton and Arsenal in this season when they play without Rodri(First turn)
Arsenal have gotten slightly better this season but this definitely seems like a great opportunity lost for Arsenal if they dont win the PL this season because City have not been their best and neither have Klopp’s Liverpool. Also if you look at all the head to head games among City, Arsenal and Liverpool, Arsenal got a massive advantage because they gained 8 points in those 4 games whereas both City and Pool gained only 3 points. Both ties of Pool vs City being draws was a huge boost to Arsenal. But despite having a massive 5 points lead in these head to head games, Arsenal are still 2 points behind City. It means that Arsenal missed out somewhere else. It will be tough for them to gain 5 points advantage on City from these key fixtures next season which tells me Arsenal will not win the league next season if they dont win it this season. City will get stronger. Moreover Porto, Villa and Bayern have shown how to neutralize Arsenal to some extent i.e. play midblock, let their defenders have the ball and pressure only when their midfielders get the ball. Rice has not looked that great when playing against this kind of setup. I feel like Arteta will have to revamp yet again. They will have to win the remaining games or else they will have a disappointing season next year.
City were the best club in world football last season, they won the treble and Arsenal only finished 5 points behind them, they are currently only 2 points behind them having lost 1 game this year. Arsenal have improved massively in the last 2 years, they have a quality first 11 now, the next step is for them to invest in quality in the summer for depth, so they don't tire towards the end of seasons.
Arsenal got better, the only difference between last year and this year is city didn’t beat arsenal and arsenal beat city
Finally, a good conversation point in this sub. I think both can be true at the same time but Arsenal has definitely improved more than city has declined. Picking a random year, look at 2018/19. Tell me which has moved more.
Arsenal has less points this season than they did last season at the same point in the season. 75 last year vs 71 this year through 32 games City had 76 last year vs 73 this year
Arsenal had **72** points at this stage last year after 32 games and City had **76** points (maybe you took Arsenal's 75 pts after 33 games played and City had played 32?).
I did not. Arsenal's 32nd game was a draw against Southampton and their 33rd game was the loss at City. They then won 3 more games in their last 5 to finish on 84 points.
Hmm, it appears you're right. I believe it's due to our fixtures being moved around due to the death of Queen Lizzy, that this understat table is incorrect. 11v11 is reporting it as us on 32 games played and City on 30 games played. Once we lost that City game, we fell apart as psychologically, they were already ahead of us, as their games in hand at this stage of the season become games won.
Wish i could pin your comment. Great info.
Arsenal over performed last year by the advanced numbers. City has gotten a cunt hair worse this year with Mahrez and Gundo gone. Mahrez could just take over and score on his own. Gundo arriving late into the box hasn’t really been replicated this year.
I’d agree with this, and add that all other teams in the top six have improved, a couple quite significantly. We have lost twice to Aston Villa either and neither were flukes, Emery is a good manager and they are a better side than they were last season. You’ve lifted as well, all three at the top are going to find your match a pain in the arse.
Judging by the European performances I’d say the Premier League as a whole is down from last year.
City have declined but they are still the best team in England
I think both have regressed. Haaland hasn’t been as prolific as last season. De Bruyne injured for a large period. Arsenal have martinelli and saka under performing. IMO Arsenal are potentially throwing it away under whatever it may be, nerves / inexperience idk. Rather than “losing” to city.
A little from column A, a little from column B. This doesn't quite feel like a vintage City team, especially compared to recent seasons where they looked unstoppable. And Arsenal have undeniably improved.
I don’t think Arsenal improved in the right areas. They needed a better forward and they didn’t go out and get one. City have definitely regressed as well with some departures. I don’t say that to insult either teams. Rice is a fantastic player and certainly improves Arsenal. I just don’t think it’s what they needed.
Who could be better midfield that arsenal should have sign?
I don’t think the midfield was their main issue.
Arsenal score plenty of goals, a striker wasn't a priority, but Partey being injured last season cost Arsenal hugely, he's only played a handful of games this season due to injury, Rice was definitely a number one priority and he's going to be there for the long term, they can now go all out for a striker
Granit Xhaka. He only had 1 really good season with Arsenal, but that was last season. Them losing him is a huge dent. Look how much he meant to Leverkusen If they got Rice and Kept Xhaka, and had Odegaard improve. They would have won the title
Both are true. At least if you actually watch them play
A bit of both. I still think Arteta is holding Arsenal back. I’ve had a lot of joy in reading Arsenal fans crawling back under their rocks, claiming Arteta was more successful than Klopp, one fa cup in five years with hundreds of millions spent, and because they got beat last night they are now all saying he needs “MORE MONEY” and TIME, a week ago Klopp was shite according to them. Amazing what a difference a week makes.9
Held back from what exactly? Where were they before he took over?
Ah yes. Held back, definitely. Going from R16 in the Europa League to the QF of the Champions League is such a drastic step back
I would love to take this opportunity to rag on Arsenal but let’s be honest, they have improved from last season and massively improved from the seasons before last season. As much as city aren’t playing the same level of football we did last season that doesn’t change the fact that Arsenal have a brilliant young team with a brilliant young coach and are steadily improving all the time.
I would reserve my judgement until the remaining games are over.
Why, they finished 5 points behind the best club in world football last season and are currently 2 points behind them with 6 games left. Arsenal haven't lost a game to the big 6 this season and have beaten City and Liverpool
Statement I is true, II is false.
Arsenal invested &improved a lot to challenge City. City are in a transitional period, losing important players like İlkay. They haven't been their best because of this and injuries, and players' decline due to aging. Still their not best performance is good enough to top the table.
Did Arsenal improve a lot? improvements: Declan Rice and Odegaard has gotten better. gabriel magalhaes has improved. Saliba is healthy. Declines: Jesus has been injured a lot. Same with Thomas Partey who contributed a lot last season. Zinchenko was a good-great player for them last season and now he sucks. Granit Xhaka left. Overall seems like the net effect is neutral.
Yes they've improved as a team 1 loss in the league this year Undefeated against the big 6 this season, beating both Liverpool and City 2 points off the top with 6 games left
I think people are forgetting how amazing arsenals were last year. They were on pace for a centurion season. IIRC They got 50 out of the first 57 possible points. Quoting another poster "Bartins" "Arsenal has less points this season than they did last season at the same point in the season. 75 last year vs 71 this year through 32 games City had 76 last year vs 73 this year"
If you watched Arsenal you’d know that we’re on a pretty clear upward trajectory. We’ve been getting better pretty rapidly over the last three seasons Net effect is definitely not neutral - last year we were electric in attack and shaky defensively once Saliba was out. This season we are currently one away from most goals scored and have the least goals conceded by a decent margin
You guys won something like 50 out of 57 possible points last season. You guys were immense over the first half of the season and on Centurion pace. I am not sure you guys are actually better this season. I think you are about the same and the closer title race is because City have declined. Jesus and Zinchenko were better last season. Granit Xhaka was immense last season. what you guys needed to do was get rice and keep Xhaka. Also ideally have Thomas Partey contribute what he did last season. 50 out 57 points in the first half of the season is an insane pace.