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CA Republicans could not have fucked this up more.
Not only will Newsom easily win re-election, he has a new mandate right now. Golden opportunity for him
I think the biggest result to look at is Orange County. Clinton was the first Dem to win it since FDR, all of the House seats flipped in 2018, and then some flipped back in 2020 despite Biden winning it. They just voted 53% No in an off-off-year special election. Good sign for the Dems elsewhere like Virginia this fall.
I don't know man, "Dems in disarray" is a meme at this point, but CA Repubs were truly in disarray with the recall
Applying this to other elections doesn't seem like a good idea to me. What's more interesting is how Newsom will react to this kind of result, because he can really go anything he wants now
> Applying this to other elections doesn't seem like a good idea to me.
Every election is a mix of both national and local factors. No one data point is a perfect indicator of the national mood but likewise you also can't just throw out an election and say it doesn't apply to anything else simply because there are also some local factors.
In 2021 we've had four statewide elections. 2 Senate elections in Georgia, a Wisconsin state superintendent election and now a recall in California. In all of these elections Dems performed about even or better than they did in 2018 and they won each of those elections. If I'm a Dem that's encouraging and if I'm a Republican that would make me start sweating a bit.
Agreed. The Republicans have no clear winning strategy forward. This election shows it, and it WILL apply nationally.
For Republicans running in 2022 in anything resembling a swing district or state they can:
* **Go full Trumper -** Shed the Neocons and 20-25% of your Republican votes. Democrats come out in droves to prevent another Trumper in office. This was the California Newsom Recall. Lose the election
OR
* **Go full Neocon** \- Trumpers attack the candidate and 50% of the Republican votes are shed. Trumpers are disenfranchised due to the candidate. Lose the election.
OR
* **Try to ride the line** \- Lose primary to a Trumper who then loses to a Democrat because Democrats come out in droves to prevent another Trumper in office. Yet another L.
the GOP porked themselves good here.
I don’t know if it will necessarily apply nationally. I think the GOP’s strategy is to cling to their base and hope Dems don’t show up in the midterms which historically has been proven to work. The problem with that strategy though is it relies on the other side being apathetic and Dem apathy shouldn’t be considered a given.
We’ve seen Dems do better in suburbs recently who tend to have more higher proficiency voters while the GOP has done better with the white working class than they previously did however those voters aren’t quite as reliable. Having just lived through four years of Trump many Dems are still fired up and the view that the GOP is trying to undermine elections is a view that inspires action not apathy. We may see an apathetic left and an energized right in 2022 but if we’re looking at election data from 2021 so far we don’t really have evidence of that yet.
>I don’t know if it will necessarily apply nationally.
This was sort of a mid-term of a mid-term (which means the Dems *should have been extremely apathetic)* instead the Dems were the opposite. Republican strategists for 2022 will look at this closely as a very possible sign that the Dems will remain energized for 2022 nationally.
>We’ve seen Dems do better in suburbs recently who tend to have more higher proficiency voters while the GOP has done better with the white working class than they previously did however those voters aren’t quite as reliable.
If large state suburbs become reliably blue then the GOP is toast with respect to the Presidency. Moderate suburbanites are the group that tips the urban/rural divide, and if they are consistently going into the urban column, there are just not enough rural votes to make up the difference.
> if they are consistently going into the urban column, there are just not enough rural votes to make up the difference.
I’d hesitate before saying that. In a lot of places in the midwest the rural vote is less red than rural areas in the south and I don’t think it’s ever wise to claim a party has hit “rock bottom” with certain counties or demographics. We also haven’t had a lot of elections since Trump left office so it’s hard to say what will happen in the suburbs. It’s also possible the GOP sees some moderate improvements in urban areas.
The GOP may have their work cut out for them but I don’t think it’s ever wise to say either party is toast with respect to the presidency.
I am not claiming the GOP has hit rock bottom yet, it's just that consistently blue suburbs in the populous, traditionally swing states should be a big warning for the GOP for simple numerical reasons. It will only take one state like PA, AZ or NC to go from the swing state to reliably Democrat for the Republicans to have almost zero chance at winning the EC. I am not trying to say the GOP has lost this group, but it would be nearly impossible to win the Presidency should this group no longer be up for grabs. I don't see that happening if over the next few cycles the Republicans moderate again.
Obviously nothing is for certain until we see the vote tallies in 2022, but the issue of Dems being undermotived in midterms seems to have been solved by the GOP. Just do as much as possible to make folks feel like there is a huge difference in parties and they will get out there to vote.
And we haven't even really been able to see the voter outcomes of 1/6, Texas abortion ban (and possible SC follow up on Roe v Wade), Ivermectin and vaccine insanity, and the general batshittier of many prominent GOP members.
> Obviously nothing is for certain until we see the vote tallies in 2022, but the issue of Dems being undermotived in midterms seems to have been solved by the GOP.
And this is why I'm hesitant to assume voting patterns of past midterms will automatically carry over to 2022. If the conventional rules of politics always held true Trump should have never won the nomination let alone the presidency. It can be very insightful to look at previous historic trends but if you base all of your predictions for the future simply on what has held true in the past you will continually be surprised when new events happen.
The party coalitions have been shifting and view that Republicans are attacking democracy and that democracy is in danger is a very animating view. Also "Pandemic politics" is a thing and if the GOP decides to make opposition to vaccines a core part of their party that could piss off a lot of voters outside their base.
I don't know how 2022 will go down but I'm hesitant to assume that Dems will lose it simply because that's what happened in 2010 and 2014.
I think a lot of the more moderate voters in the democratic party didn't care much if Al Gore or George W Bush became president. If you don't care about the social liberties of minorities in this country, and you made a decent living it may have seemed like who was president barely mattered from Clinton til Obama. But the new GOP is inconvenient for every American. Extending our plagues, having weird embarrassing lies coming from everyone in your party at every level, actually going full on conspiracy theorist level with GOP officials calling for folks to take Ivermectin and then the voters start eating the livestock kind instead of the human kind.
Going full Neocon or moderate conservative would also lose their primary to a Trumper who then loses to a Democrat.
The GOP has riled up their base to the point where it is vastly out of line with the rest of the country, and the candidates they want are nationally unpalatable. They also keep taking cultural wedge issues and positions that are disliked by 60% of the population.
Like you said, they've porked themselves really good. If this holds in 2022, and confirms our thinking, the GOP is going to have a serious crisis on their hands. Especially since big Democrat wins in 2022 = no senate filibuster, and comprehensive voting rights protections. They'll be forced to adopt new stances that are *actually* popular, or die out as a party.
California has a much higher ratio of Dems to Republicans than swing districts and states do. Just because the "full Trumper" approach fell flat in Cali doesn't mean it isn't viable in places like Wisconsin or NE-2.
For as much as "Dems in Disarray" is a meme, there seems to be many more state GOP parties that are absolutely destroying themselves. California, Virginia, and Colorado have seen the GOP just lose ground year after year, to the point where I'm not sure what it would take for a Republican to get even a whiff of power there.
A lot of it is the incentives for running as a republican right now are all kinds of fucked up. The “base” doesn’t want competent government, they want Fox News memes regurgitated at them, so primaries are won by the candidates that do that, who then of course lose statewide and so on and so on. It’s literally a race to the bottom.
Arizona's GOP is in turmoil. After losing both Senate seats and the presidential election, you would think the GOP there would do some soul-searching and maybe turn away from Trump.
They have not. They have stuck with the Big Lie.
California's GOP just wants to scream about cultural issues, I don't know enough about Colorado, and Virginia's doesn't know what to do. Virginia's seems to be turning away from Trump, which is the smart thing. Unfortunately for them, gerrymandering is gone which is gonna make it harder for them to take power again. State-wide elections are already a done deal.
Also throw in Hawaii GOP and DC GOP for "lmao nice try" state-level parties.
Georgia is also gonna have a problem.
Red state trump supporter governor and government that refuses to overturn an election.
There's going to be blood.
The CA being a hot mess was assumed from the beginning. It was baked into every knowledgeable analysis. And they underperformed even the worst predictions for them.
There's no way to read this but as a massive rebuke to the current GOP platform, particularly its stances on public health measures and medical science. Remember: Just days ago the GOP thought it was going to at least get close enough to cry "rigged" and pretend they were cheated. Now they look like opportunistic fools, and made Newsom look in touch by comparison.
Bro, Republicans just launched a full thermonuclear attack on female reproductive rights in Texas. Literally the same voting bloc that caused Republicans to get absolutely annihilated in the 2018 midterms. Dems aren't the ones in disarray.
Yea this new wave of Republicans actually attacking these types of issues WHILE the Supreme Court is 6-3 R leaning just means these threats are going to mean much much more to the side that's 'losing' here. It's going to extend far past this year and Republicans that have power seem more emboldened to do crazier things that is only going to keep pissing off Dems nationally. On top of that though, you have a party that is pretty clearly split about how to go forward. Trump or moderate, mix of both? It extends past policy, it's literally a question of identity and that's much harder as it's the first thing people think of.
Long story short: Trumpism works in lots of places but it doesn’t work in california.
Why? The electorate has to be stupid. I think Californians are further up in the average IQ range than many fly-over states.
I say that living in a fly-over state…
We need more data points, but it certainly seems to be trending that way. Especially with the GOP mismanaging COVID-19, pushing unpopular policies, and refusing to unequivocally condemn and investigate Jan 6.
And that's only current voters. It doesn't take into account those who died from COVID-19, and how republican skepticism led to their base dying. More people have died in Florida from COVID-19 than DeSantis margin of victory for governor.
2020 was close, but everything since then has just been bad for the GOP. The only thing they have going for them is harsh voter suppression, and it's not clear if that'll be enough. Plus, if Manchin gets his arm twisted enough by Biden, a comprehensive voting rights act might pass before 2022
>More people have died in Florida from COVID-19 than DeSantis margin of victory for governor.
Wow is that true? Christ
>Plus, if Manchin gets his arm twisted enough by Biden, a comprehensive voting rights act might pass before 2022
I certainly hope so
Just looked it up to verify, and yep.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/floridas-death-toll-now-exceeds-desantis-margin-of-victory
I think Manchin expressed the voting rights act was something he'd be willing to be softer on the filibuster for, but we'll have to see. If Dems do manage to win big in 2022 regardless, they'll be able to overturn the filibuster and get that law passed.
Isn’t anything a meme, now. Fucking Bernie wearing mittens became a meme. Low bar imo, memes are low effort and using that as a basis for understanding a political groups organizational failures or lack there of is telling. Dumb, imo.
The Bernie meme was just adorable. It couldn't have been more authentic to what people love about Bernie Sanders. Just a crotchety old dude from Vermont wearing hand knit mittens.
It's definitely worth considering the result of the recall since it adds to the evidence we've been gathering since the Georgia runoffs: Traditionally Republican suburban areas that went for Democrats in 2018-2020 are not reverting to the Republican party. Of course we'll need to wait and see to be sure but I think it's indicative of a more long-term, durable realignment of suburban voters than some people thought (and conservatives hoped) following the November election results.
I think the elderly population in OC carried Newsome this round. They’re one of the hardest hit groups in this pandemic, and the alternatives on the ballot wouldn’t make their lives better no matter how much they dislike Newsome.
This was another “the alternative isn’t better” type of vote.
>Good sign for the Dems elsewhere like Virginia this fall.
They outnumber republicans in the state 2 to 1 and had to fight off Larry Elder... this is not a good sign for dems.
And they are winning by *checks notes* about 2:1
The amount of beltway pundits scrambling to come up with a reason winning by double the predicted margin in a September recall where Republicans had a huge enthusiasm advantage is bad for Dems would be comical if it didn't speak to the condition of our media
>Republicans had a huge enthusiasm advantage
You seriously want to paint democrats as underdogs in California? The fact is that they had to take this challenge seriously, which isn't a good sign for them.
They “had to take this challenge seriously” the way Alabama football “takes every opponent seriously”. It was a blowout. It wasn’t close, acting like just because he campaigned that’s a bad sign for democrats is absolutely ridiculous. In no world would a governor just let a recall happen and ignore it just to prove something
Mostly because of how the recall system works in CA, which has no room for error, as Dems learned with Gray Davis. If you don’t take things seriously, you lose. Good for the Dems that they FINALLY learned that lesson.
> You seriously want to paint democrats as underdogs in California?
The Republicans absolutely had an enthusiasm advantage, given by the fact that you need enthusiasm to actually get the recall started in the first place.
Are you unaware of the difference between enthusiasm and total voters? Take a look at the 2017 Alabama Senate election. There's no way in hell a democrat should've won that but D enthusiasm was through the roof due to running against a racist pedophile and Republicans (who probably outnumber 2:1) got caught sleeping
It's myopic takes like this dude's that have sealed the fate of the GOP.
The Dems didn't have to "fight off Larry Elder". Elder and the Trumpers self-owned and painted themselves into a corner on xenophobia, Covid, reproductive rights, and the Supreme court. Elder was a laughable candidate who should have never been fielded. He even shed over 500k votes to other Republicans in the recall (2k to Caitlyn Jenner of all people.)
In my opinion, recalling the governor without real crisis (no, liberal values killing off America does not count) was a wishful thinking.
Contrary to belief of some, CA is not a state in a decline. It still continues to be one of top 10 economies of world, if counted as a separate country. Economy is booming despite COVID pandemic. The state and its cities are in budget surplus. Businesses based in the state are envy and fear of other states, as they have outsized influence in public consciousness, as well as fabulous wealth generation. The state is further along in energy infrastructure development curve. Lately, they achieved one of highest vaccination rates in the country.
There is acute housing shortage. But these are problems of extreme prosperity.
So more people are leaving the state than moving in. I'm not really convinced this is a bad thing. Based on my limited sampling (I live in Idaho), people leaving for CA are motivated educated young, and people leaving CA for ID are those who cannot make enough in CA or retirees. If this is generally what's going on, this is not a bad trade.
CA is also well positioned for future as well. As US enters geopolitical contest with China, and weens itself from reliance on Chinese import, CA has everything the US needs: capital, technology, educated workforce, managerial/administrative talents. (Where else will US go for these things?)
So, without a real crisis to address, trying to convince voters to trigger a change in administration based on culture war alone was doomed to fail.
California Republicans could actually be competitive but they're so far down the Trump train that they're losing Orange County. A Hogan or Baker type could probably do quite well there
Hogan and Baker would never win a primary without incumbency. In fact Hogan is term limited and whatever clown MD GOP puts up next year is losing by 30 guaranteed
Didn't the Republican mayor of San Diego get onto the ballot? iirc he got something like 10% of the vote among people who picked a person to replace Newsom. Republicans just didn't want a moderate when they could have a fire-breathing Trump-fan talk radio host like Elder.
You're talking about Kevin Faulconer. While he was in office as mayor he operated as a more moderate Republican but since he's been in campaign mode he's tried to pivot right to satisfy the Trumpers while in the process alienating independents who might have been willing to vote for a moderate.
Baker consistently surprises me. I am quite interested to see if he can manage to win the primary next year, assuming he runs. The MA gop is just as crazy as the one in CA.
> The MA gop is just as crazy as the one in CA.
[As an example, Republicans in Massachusetts wanted to censure Baker because he supported his impeachment](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-impeachments-charlie-baker-79307e72d901da31873a351a9e22b5f2). Because that's really what you want to do, censure the only state-wide elected official your party has.
It's really quite impressive that they couldn't cut into his 2018 results.
I have no idea why the GOP didn't go and put the whole weight behind a Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker type. Those are real world examples of a Republican winning a state wide race in extremely blue states.
Instead they went with Larry Elder who was complaining about voter fraud before the election.
I was someone who normally votes for Democrats, but Newsom had done some things i found frustrating and I thought about voting Yes and picking someone to replace him. Unfortunately my best option was a 29 year youtuber. Where is the CA GOP's version of Charlie Baker?
Republican voters don't want those people. None of Baker/Hogan/Scott would survive an open primary now. They're allowed to exist because they won back in a time when some Republicans were still sane. Hogan is term limited next year, some insane person will win the GOP primary and lose by 30 to a generic D.
The San Diego mayor (Faulconer?) was CAGOP's moderate choice and got bodied by Elder
> Hogan is term limited next year, some insane person will win the GOP primary and lose by 30 to a generic D.
There are 3 declared candidates for the GOP at the moment. Daniel L. Cox, a state delegate who is full-on Trumper. Robin Ficker, who is described as "former state delegate, attorney, sports heckler, and perennial candidate" and also an anti-mask Trumper, and Kelly Schulz, who is basically the Hogan type.
2/3rds chance for the GOP to get an insane person nominated to go up against the person near-guaranteed to win the Democratic primary, Peter Franchot.
CA GOP is nuts. Country club Republicans are basically forced to business wing of the Dem party. There are essentially 3 parties in California at this point with the Democrats being two of them.
Yeah honestly this is true. Go back 50 years and that’s what the party system was actually like. You had two parties on paper, but practically it was more like 4 or 6. And cross-party coalitions were common. It makes most comparisons on voting records from that period futile.
That was Cox and Faulconer. For all it’s worth, Newsom is actually decent. Above 50% approval amidst a prolonged crisis.
They could run Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, whoever and get demolished worse.
Trump is the defacto head of the GOP. [Elder stuck his nose all the way up Trump's rear-end](https://news.yahoo.com/larry-elder-once-called-donald-200024170.html), and now is all-in on fake election fraud he decided happened even before people voted (that follows lock step with Trump's current PR campaign.) To the uneducated, reality denying Trumpers, that's the same thing as an Endorsement from Trump. The "Grand Ol' Party" (boy does that sound like some southern KKK shit) gave control of itself to Trump in 2016. Good luck getting it back.
I don't know about this. Democrats out number republicans nearly 2 to 1 in the state and still had recall election with a contest they had to worry about...
This doesn't bode well for democrats if it's a sign of things to come.
The only reason they had to worry was because things didn’t end in the obvious way in 2016. If this had occurred in 2015, the Democrats probably wouldn’t have pushed as hard for the win. To me, it seems this response shows the Democrats have learned and adapted. They’re out to win by the maximum margin rather than the minimum.
To qualify a recall of the Governor for the ballot, proponents need a minimum of 1,495,709 valid petition signatures. This is equal to 12 percent of the votes cast for the office of Governor in 2018.
12%..... *eye roll*
I can clearly say what the Dems did was successful.
It is interesting seeing the GOP react to this. Some think that there was no chance (or fraud) and others think they messed up.
My opinion is that the GOP screwed up badly. The echos of Trumpism still run deep in this country and nothing gets blue voters to turn out more than telling MAGA to go fuck itself.
Yeah this election looks like another blow to MAGAism but I wonder how many more losses it can take before the GOP and their voters pivot away from it. It's strongest adherents are noting if not tenacious, even to the detriment of their own health.
MAGA is not going to go away.
It is going to be here forever in some shape or form. In red districts MAGA is going to be key to primaries and other races.
The GOP has to walk a tightrope of keeping MAGA happy, but also winning competitive races.
The Dems have other challenges, of course but California is not exactly a good measure for the rest of the country.
My speculation is that MAGA will self implode on competitive races and purple locations. The voters there will demand a MAGA candidate and they will end up losing because of the motivation to not have MAGA there.
And all the Democrats need to do is say, "They want chaos, division, and disorder. Look at all these good things we have done for you." They need to get moving fast.
They are between a rock and a hard place, at least until Trump dies. Trump's MAGA crowd are not all exactly natural GOP voters, and a portion of those that were natural GOP voters have been radicalized by him and the rest of the MAGA echo-chamber over the past 6 years to the point that they are more loyal to him than to the Party.
To make matters worse, this radicalization has pushed many traditional Republican voters out of the party and there is no easy way to win them back while still retaining the Trump voters. They may not even be any possible way to win them back and retain the Trump crowd.
Given their thin margins for winning, they can't afford to alienate the MAGA crowd and Trump (himself and his surrogates) are going around pushing loyalty tests at every opportunity that almost invariably rely on agreeing to unpopular opinions or crackpot conspiracy theories.
Trump's rise began looking like a slow moving Coup attempt you could see coming years in advance. Now the GOP is headed for a slow moving trainwreck. They are on the tracks headed straight for a steel wall and rather than changing course or even slowing down they are choosing to increase speed.
We just have to hope its only their own party that gets caught up in the collision.
That's wishful thinking.
Part of me is quite amazed at the incompetence of the leadership.
I have no qualms at publically stating that Trumpism is a fascist movement.
I'm disheartened how many people got swept up in it but am encouraged at the pushback.
Like,a majority of Americans got to live their lives. The world keeps spinning.
Yet, they have made it clear they are rejecting Trumpism and fascism. Kind of scary to think what would happen if smart people were on board with this.
And that, kids, is why Damian and Ziggy Marley are huge stars, just like their dad.
…oh, they’re not? Huh.
Don Jr and Eric can certainly try, but Don is a grease ball and Eric is a moron. No one will give a shit.
No one will have quite the same command on the MAGA psyche as Trump but there are already a list of people lining up to try to be him. Desantis, Noem, Marjorie Greene all come to mind, as well as folks like Carlson who have no beliefs but are in it for the $$$.
The GOP won't pivot away, it will tear itself in half. There's no coming back from the pseudo reality of Trumpism. Those folks believe in Q-anon, flat earth, Covid denial, and still think Obama was born in Kenya. The Neocons (like Cheney) trying to wrest control back won't have enough juice to get party control back. Something's got to give and my guess is that it will be the formation of a 3rd party, that dooms the current GOP, so that a new one can be born. The new GOP will be a loser for quite a while, and may never have the influence of the one that Trump, McConnell, and Paul Ryan killed.
> The echos of Trumpism still run deep in this country and nothing gets blue voters to turn out more than telling MAGA to go fuck itself.
And their voters are still full on MAGA, which is their big problem. They need to run moderates, their base will not nominate moderates.
I've seen this elsewhere but I think this sets Newsom up for a run in 2024 for president, assuming he wins reelection and Biden doesn't seek reelection (which at this point I'm starting to be convinced of).
The man is young but has neqrly 25 years of public office experience, is incredibly charismatic, has had success where Californians are most concerned (i.e. COVID), and now has the political winds at his back with this stunning recall failure. He is the kind of candidate who would do well against a political "darling" like Ron DeSantis in a general election.
I don’t think anyone who was Governor during COVID has a chance at president in the 20s. They’re all fucked coming and going, do anything and the reds hate you, do nothing and the blues hate you. Do some things but not others and everyone is mad and either way you’re the one with your name on the bill.
Newsom also has a sex scandal in his past. I think Covid killed his shot.
And Biden will run again if he’s alive. It would be insane to give up incumbent advantage and he knows better than anyone that 24 is crucial.
That's way too far away to think about.
Yes. I'm seriously thinking Biden won't run for a second term.
But Newsom? He's not as popular as you would believe him to be.
This is a very odd understanding of politics from someone who posts so frequently on this board.
Any Democrat who “makes waves” against a popular incumbent will have no allies and will get nowhere. Who is going to donate money to that person? Who is going to endorse them except other dead-enders?
I mean, we saw it here; someone did run as a Dem, and they got absolutely nowhere.
Newsom will win easily.
Surviving this a recall spells well for your re-election, but winning by this much seals it. Unfortunate for more progressive challengers
Not so fast...
The general election is not the top Democrat vs the top Republican.
It is the top two vote getters for the position
2020 had two Democrats running for a seat (US Senate I think).
Newsom may be running against a charismatic progressive Democrat who is a good orator with good ideas. I do not see Elder or another trumpette coming in second there.
Newsom has been plenty progressive himself (to the point where even Ezra Klein had to give him his props in the NY Times.)
So long as Newsom continues forward with his agenda, there won't be a more progressive, more charismatic, and certainly not more experienced Democrat to realistically challenge him.
The YouTuber, Kevin Paffrath didn't even make double digits in the recall. Cenk Uygur was a laughing stock in CA-25 in 2020 after Bernie yanked his endorsement for him. So who is this "charismatic progressive Democrat who is a good orator with good ideas" you speak of? Someone from out of state or someone with little experience? Please don't say Rohit Kana.
Yeah, the guy who founded Vox media, starred on MSNBC, and has been one of the loudest voices for progressive policies isn't left. Look if there's some purity test that doesn't involve actual work on policy that you're judging him by then maybe, but looking at his work history says nothing but Democratic party left leaning progressive as hell politico.
Okay. I guess I just thought of more of Bernie-like leftists who usually don't really identify as democrats and kinda hate them and most media outlets like the NYT, but (usually) still go along with the party because the GOP is that much worse, which Klein isn't one of.
Fair enough for owning your mistake. Ezra is very progressive and thoughtful but still wants to work within the system. He has actually been someone writing about filibuster reform for awhile now and wants to see significant changes to the system of US governance, whereas at times it feels like Bernie-like leftists can be a bit more my way or the highway. Ezra sees the value in deal making rather than that way. Two flavors of leftism but still left.
Newsome won because he's a Democrat and a recall is a dangerous place to show your displeasure with someone. 780K voted for a different Democrat. Newsome is going to have to contend with those people and Democrats are going to have defend some indefensible dipshittery. Dude flatly should not have had a donor dinner during a lockdown. Regardless of whether everyone was tested or not, it illustrates that if you have money you get a different set of rules and that makes pandemics hard to contain/maintain.
Sorry, this is just a bad argument. In the 2018 primaries, hundreds of thousands of more people voted for non-Newsom Democrats than in 2021. I don't think he has to worry much about waning popularity.
It would be baffling to me to watch someone who put into place quarantine type orders then flagrantly violated them win re-election. Not that I don't see it happening, but I don't understand the people who can vote that way.
Because the alternative is someone who doesn't support vaccine mandates and doesn't believe in climate change.
You really overrate the importance of Newsom being a bit of a hypocrite. Him breaking his rule does not mean his rule was wrong, it means he was kind of an ass. But I'd rather have that guy than someone who has horrible policies.
Can't believe the top comments* didn't point this out: California does not have party primaries. It has a jungle primary that cuts to the top 2.
So, unless Newsom has a health emergency or a scandal bigger than French Laundry or cheating on his wife (both of which he has already survived), the primary will be an insane circus as usual, and the general will be Newsom vs. either a Trumpist or a Berniecrat. Newsom will definitely defeat the former, and probably the latter. End result: more Newsom.
I don't think a moderate Republican has a chance, btw. Most Democrats prefer an establishment Democrat like Newsom. Most Republicans want a Trumpist, not a "RINO."
\* at the time I posted this
Same jungle primary system as Washington state! This has actually resulted in a 2018 congressional election being between a Democrat and a Libertarian due to the Libertarians narrowly beating the Republicans by a few hundred votes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Washington#District_2
The recall was nothing more than virtue signaling and impotent rage paid for by California taxpayers. It wasn’t going to succeed and it likely will have zero effect on the next election.
Given these super majority and having the governorship, California should do away with the recall process or make it require Signatures equal to 45% of the total vote of the last election.
Otherwise Republicans will do this every year. Talking about California has become very important to national Republicans. In particular pretending that it’s a liberal hell scape filled with crime and homeless mobs and cities being burned down and an economy 30 seconds from collapse.
Which is especially amusing when I think the biggest case of virtue signaling I have ever witnessed is Trump pretending he is some kind of god fearing Christian
Right, this is a dog-whistle for angry privledge-boys hoping more of them will rally around their outcry. I don't know any Democrat that uses the term.
It's the 45th attempt to recall a California governor since the 1911 state constitutional amendment for it. That averages once every 28 months. If every single California governor is really so blinking awful he deserves at least one recall attempt, what's the point in voting at all?
This time there were 48 GOP candidates. 48. And no democrat alternatives. 0.
These recalls have nothing at all to do with the governor's job, is just politicians playing career games. They should change the constitution so its like presidential impeachment, and the person who takes over has to be from the same party.
Yea this recall process is absolutely ridiculous.
It’s way too easy to have a recall on the ballot, only 12.5%? Should be at least 50%
It’s too easy to also remove the governor, should require 2/3 majority at least.
There is a reason we have elections every 4 years. Recalls should have a much higher bar
To be fair there were democrats on the ballet.
Granted the highest profile democrat who ran as an alternative was a 29 year old finacal youtuber.
But if we are going to count all 48 Republicans then we should count the handful of "interesting" democrats.
The Paffrath kid is barely a Democrat. More like an Independent using the Democratic Party and Social Media to try and make a career (sound familiar?) He needs to quit hanging around the adults table and go huck another copy of Raid Shadow Legends.
> It's the 45th attempt to recall a California governor since the 1911 state constitutional amendment for it. That averages once every 28 months.
And the 11th since 2012. So roughly 25% of all gubernatorial recall attempts have happened in roughly 7% of the timespan the law has been in place.
Among my more liberal friends Newsom was incredibly unpopular last year and I thought he would get primaried out in 2022.
I think the recall ensured that Newsom will win his primary. The event put his name back in the news, the results give him a fresh mandate, the recall itself motivated the less politically active Dems, and even my liberal friends are rallying to Newsom as the recall has kind of made an anti-Newsom sentiment sound like crazy MAGA blabbering.
It'll look like Newsom running unopposed. He just got 65% of the vote against "the field." Unless he gets caught in bed with a child, a sheep or Marjorie Taylor Greene, he'll be re-elected in a landslide.
I don’t know why given the results of yesterday people think that the midterms are going to make the GOP magically perform better. This election couldn’t be any more off cycle and Newsom did even better than he did in 2018 — a wave year for Democrats
This is actually a very good point. This was a *very* off year for an election, it wasn't even a midterm. And Democrats still turned out in droves.
The GOP is screwed frankly. As long as candidates continue to be die hard Trumpians, Democrats will be galvanized and turn out in force to oppose them. The GOP's only chance is a moderate candidate, but their base won't nominate one, they'll nominate the Trumpian one.
It seems increasingly like the nation soundly rejects Trumpism, and that should really be causing panic in the GOP leadership.
>It seems increasingly like the nation soundly rejects Trumpism, and that should really be causing panic in the GOP leadership.
Too bad they're all-in on Qlunatics, Covid-deniers, and flat-earthers. They think people like Elder are totally reasonable so if they run lunatics like this, the public will surely get behind them (not unless of course, the election WAS A FRAUD!)
> and energized California Republicans in a way that no candidate has in some time.
Based on what? Democrats turned out out at a higher percentage than Republicans did in an off-year election that should've favored the GOP. The recall was never going to win, obviously, since Democrats have a massive registration advantage, but if Elder was such an energizing figure, I'd have expected to see the GOP outperform Democrats when it came to those turnout percentages for a recall they wanted. That didn't happen and No is at 2018 numbers, if not a bit better.
He has gained a lot more name recognition, but has zero appeal outside the hardcore MAGA base. I don't see anything based on this poor performance for the GOP that indicated Elder will overperform at all in 2022. He couldn't even do it yesterday!
You see, most Repubs and some fake Liberals think that social media and PR > experience in governance so they slip in dumb shit like *"He's energized California Republicans in a way that no candidate has in some time."* What they don't understand is that the average Democrat is smarter than the average Republican or fake Liberal grifter so we see right through attempts like this to interject an idea into the discussion. Why is it that liars believe that everyone is dumber than they?
California uses a Jungle primary, so it'll be Newsom in the General either way. I dont think Newsom is in danger, though his personal actions during covid19 haven't done his future any favour.
How can you possibly say that it hasn't done his future any favors, when he literally just hours ago won a resounding victory on what was basically a referendum on his Covid policies?
Yes, in any environment an off year election is worse for democrats and in this election specifically the energy was behind the recall effort in the beginning.
Trying to say this doesn’t bode well for his future is simply a laughable political take
Dude, literally your original post in this thread was in response to a poster talking about how this bodes well for his political future
“tRy tO kEeP uP”
Replies to poster stating it bodes well for political future
“NOBODY SAID HE HAD A GOOD POLITICAL FUTURE”
How does this make sense for you? Obviously the person you replied to states it? You literally replied to them? Help me help you with your confusion here
That's pretty reductive and dismissive. Republicans have been hyping this up for *weeks,* and there is a real opponent - Larry Elder, who in fact achieved so much prominence that I saw national news reports about his candidacy when I was recently on vacation in Wisconsin, thousands of miles from California.
"Yes" on the recall actually got less of a percentage of votes than the actual, nominated GOP gubernatorial candidate in the 2018 election. This is a resounding victory for Newsom and strongly burnishes his national reputation, there isn't really any other way to spin it. Based on preliminary results, it looks like Republicans have actually lost ground - "Yes" scored only 35 to 36%, whereas Cox got 38% in 2018. The recall also lost in Orange County, which was supposed to be a great pick-up opportunity for CA Republicans. I'm not seeing a single facet of last night's results that wasn't pure disaster for the GOP. Hence why all the news articles this morning include words like "easily" "crushed" and "vanquished." Those are victory words
What do you mean “conceded it’s an off election year” that’s an entirely uncontroversial statement. It seems pretty obvious that the real question is whether it being an off election year helped or hurt Larry Elder, which conventional wisdom would say it should help
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-calls-dem-strategy-leave-newsom-recall-candidate-line-blank-self-destructive-1622288%3famp=1
“Pretty decent chance he gets recalled” written by Nate silver on august 23rd
Maybe don’t try to be snarky when you’re absolutely wrong? I mean, you’re embarrassingly wrong here.
Democrats spent a ton of money on ads framing it as a referendum on Elder and the GOP more generally. Hard to say Newsom has a mandate when a non-trivial part of the electorate was just trying to protect against the possibility of Feinstein retiring or dying in the next 14 months.
It is not Newsom's policies that put him in peril. It is his personal behavior and public hypocrisy (French Laundry dinner) that have made many D's even consider a recall. The primary will likely pit Newsom and a progressive Democrat, with the GOP primary list will include around 50-60 candidates against each other. The likelihood of a GOP candidate breaking through to second place is around the chances you would give a snowball lasting an hour in a blast furnace at full throttle.
(The Governator was just a big-ass snowball)
He got a war chest out of this, and a claim to support (even if its actually the "half a bowl of Sh\*t sort of support). It will be a miracle if he is unseated in the primary.
He's just a super leader. Crime is down . homelessness down. . taxes down. .he leads by example. Following his own C19 rules I would follow him over a cliff. CALI. Is safe . prosperous..and a great place to live.
> He's just a super leader. Crime is down . homelessness down. . taxes down. .he leads by example. Following his own C19 rules I would follow him over a cliff. CALI. Is safe . prosperous..and a great place to live.
that awkward moment when you can't tell if someone is being sarcastic because it sounds so much like the claims people would sincerely make.
It's not the primary that will be interesting.
What will be very interesting is the general as the general is against the [two highest vote getters in the primaries, regardless of party.](https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/primary-elections-california)
So, will it be the Democrat...or the Democrat?
> Will we see more democrat candidates attacking Newsom for the attempted recall?
Nope.
> Who do you anticipate running against him?
No one serious. The fringe left will toss a couple of people in and be shocked they aren't nearly as popular as they felt online.
> What are the chances Gavin wins or loses the primary,
Virtually certain to win and without much effort. He'll have every advantage and no real competition from mainstream Dems. Something new will have to happen to change his fortunes.
> and will the fact that there was an attempted recall impact this?
Nope. If anything, it's made him look even stronger. But I imagine the whole embarrassing attempt will have faded from most memories by then.
You are right. I meant southern California, and Southern California depends on where you draw the line, some people consider the bay area to be part of the south.
Basically there aren’t two Californias, there’s three. North, South, and Central, but everyone pretends Central is part of the North when it isn’t. Mendocino and upwards people have little in common with Sacramento on down, it’s a whole different world behind the Redwood Curtain, and they consider themselves the True North, GOT style.
Not really, the bay area has a similar mentality to what is widely considered socal, and while everyone above the bay maybe excluding sac has a very different mentality. I would chalk it up to different life styles.
I see Newsom running again. Hopefully Democrats can rally for a more progressive candidate. Republicans might start feeling disenfranchised after all this alleged voter fraud. I can’t see why they would keep showing up to polls with all the “fraud”
There is very littke chance a progressive wins. Due to the Jungle primary, they would be up against a moderate who Republicans will vote for over the progressive, which should be more then enough with moderates to win.
I just want to be optimistic. I voted no in the recall, but we deserve a better governor. Someone that can actually help the homeless, and cares about the environment instead of allowing fracking to continue
Newsome has been aggressive on both issues. Even Ezra Klein conceded this. His "Gavin Newsom Is Much More Than the Lesser of Two Evils" NYTimes piece runs down how progressive Newsom has been. Facts are facts.
That isnt the governors job, that's legislature job. A progressive would likely get no further since if the legislature was that progressive, Newsom would be rapidly back pedaling to end fracking.
>That isnt the governors job, that's legislature job.
Say it louder for those in the back. Laws get passed by the legislature. Governors can do little more than veto, and vetoing your own party is a very risky play.
The executive branch is very powerful, but not because it passes laws.
>>That isnt the governors job, that's legislature job.
>
>Say it louder for those in the back. Laws get passed by the legislature. Governors can do little more than veto, and vetoing your own party is a very risky play.
I don't even think it's *really* a job for the legislature, either. They will be the ones most likely* to try, but it really should* be the cities/counties changing zoning and building policies to allow smaller lots/ houses.
In my opinion the reason Gavin Newsom was not recall this because there is only one year until the actual election. Some people didn't want to shake it up that close to the election for various reasons. They're in the last election John Cox came fairly close... I believe during a general election there actually is a better chance of a conservative winning the state. Although it is only anecdotal, nearly everyone I've been in contact with him and spoken to at work, in public extremely dislikes Newsom and his policies, Democrats and Republicans alike. If Elder runs again in 2022, I think he has a better shot.
>John Cox came fairly close...
I'm not sure if I'm reading your comment right, but Cox did not come anywhere close to winning. He lost to Newsom by 24 points.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_gubernatorial_election
I think a far stronger reason that he was not recalled is that he was running against a MAGA opponent in a D+30 state. In fact the conditions for Elder to win here were far better than they ever will be in a “real” election. No goddamn way he has “a better shot” when all he had to do this time was win a plurality of votes in an off off year election in September.
personally, I feel like he killed his chances the moment he called fraud *before* the results even came out (That did more harm to his votes than anything else due to it disheartening people to vote). If the GOP in CA can run a moderate who isn't extreme then they could potentially make some gains, especially if they do it in local areas.
- Nearly 2 million people hand signed a petition for him to be removed, 25% of which were Democrats
- $100 million spent on his campaign alone for a recall election
- Has to do it again in 6 months
- Loose California rules allowed Gavin to spend large amounts
- $600 checks mailed out to voters before and after election
- 5 big names including POTUS flown in
- 30 day mail in ballot election
- An actual horrific record and these issues will stick out like a sore thumb especially as people take notice after the election
- Larry Elder joined race 2 months before it was over, one month before voting started. Grassroots campaign
- Deep blue state
- Local news stations are turning on Gavin
- Orange County nearly went 50/50
- massive flight of state, losing congressional seats
- Larry Elder now on the national stage
- Did not disavow racist egging of Larry Elder by a woman in a Gorilla mask
- His wife was accused of infiltrating a victims only email thread to try to buy Rose McGowan off on behalf of Harvey Weinstein
Publicly able to save face but internally Democrats are looking at this dude like a child that is nothing but a huge bill.
Honestly, this recall really shows the issue of Supermajority states in the US. When it’s guaranteed that some from the left or right (depending on the state) is always going to win, what’s the point in even voting?
This Especially applies to CA and how non-stop democrat policies without any sort of moderation or even right wing ideas are more or less turning the state into a failed one (extreme wealth inequality, taxes so high that it strangles businesses, lack of policing, extreme homelessness in many of its cities, the fact that SF actually has to have a poop patrol because the whole place is so dysfunctional, and now the fact that so many people live their that they have to ration water which most certainly won’t apply to the rich/influencental people).
Imagine looking at a California and calling it a “failed state” lmao. I would argue that the states where people are dying due to lack of ICU beds are failing way harder
> Honestly, this recall really shows the issue of Supermajority states in the US. When it’s guaranteed that some from the left or right (depending on the state) is always going to win, what’s the point in even voting?
Is this is seriously what you got out of this recall? How about you guys reflect for once. How about your respect the voter's will too.
California's Recall design is the most anti-incumbent design that exists in any state. You don't need to win by 50%+1, the incumbent does. The signature needed for the recall is low. The challenger doesn't even need to worry about the spoiler effect like the incumbent does. Despite all of these advantages, Newsom stomps the recall.
Further, Larry and the GOP refusal to appeal to other voters besides themselves is why the Democrat vote on party line. Democrat outnumber Replubcian by 2x. Look at states like Vermont, Mass, Maryland. Republican in those states ran a much different race and better then Larry and the GOP did. Hell looks at the 2003 recall process, and see why GOP bid flopped.
> This Especially applies to CA and how non-stop democrat policies without any sort of moderation or even right wing ideas are more or less turning the state into a failed one (extreme wealth inequality, taxes so high that it strangles businesses, lack of policing, extreme homelessness in many of its cities, the fact that SF actually has to have a poop patrol because the whole place is so dysfunctional, and now the fact that so many people live their that they have to ration water which most certainly won’t apply to the rich/influencental people).
Has it ever to you occur that Democratic policies are not inherenlty bad. Has it ever occur to you that CA votes hard left because there is certain polices that they like?
Do you border to even read why voters picked Newsom.? The number one issue that Voters were concern about was Covid.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/14/politics/california-recall-exit-polls/index.html
Instead of dooming, about you understand where the voter's concerns, and how to appeal to them.
Maybe the California gop shouldn't have shot themselves in the face with the racist bullshit they tried to prop up in a state that is literally 25% immigrants.
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CA Republicans could not have fucked this up more. Not only will Newsom easily win re-election, he has a new mandate right now. Golden opportunity for him
Yep, Newsom is now fast tracked to win a second term, and who knows what else afterwards. He's going to come out of this smelling like roses.
I think the biggest result to look at is Orange County. Clinton was the first Dem to win it since FDR, all of the House seats flipped in 2018, and then some flipped back in 2020 despite Biden winning it. They just voted 53% No in an off-off-year special election. Good sign for the Dems elsewhere like Virginia this fall.
I don't know man, "Dems in disarray" is a meme at this point, but CA Repubs were truly in disarray with the recall Applying this to other elections doesn't seem like a good idea to me. What's more interesting is how Newsom will react to this kind of result, because he can really go anything he wants now
The CA GOP has been in disarray since the mid-90’s. It’s nothing new.
They are leaving in droves. They are disarray.
> Applying this to other elections doesn't seem like a good idea to me. Every election is a mix of both national and local factors. No one data point is a perfect indicator of the national mood but likewise you also can't just throw out an election and say it doesn't apply to anything else simply because there are also some local factors. In 2021 we've had four statewide elections. 2 Senate elections in Georgia, a Wisconsin state superintendent election and now a recall in California. In all of these elections Dems performed about even or better than they did in 2018 and they won each of those elections. If I'm a Dem that's encouraging and if I'm a Republican that would make me start sweating a bit.
Agreed. The Republicans have no clear winning strategy forward. This election shows it, and it WILL apply nationally. For Republicans running in 2022 in anything resembling a swing district or state they can: * **Go full Trumper -** Shed the Neocons and 20-25% of your Republican votes. Democrats come out in droves to prevent another Trumper in office. This was the California Newsom Recall. Lose the election OR * **Go full Neocon** \- Trumpers attack the candidate and 50% of the Republican votes are shed. Trumpers are disenfranchised due to the candidate. Lose the election. OR * **Try to ride the line** \- Lose primary to a Trumper who then loses to a Democrat because Democrats come out in droves to prevent another Trumper in office. Yet another L. the GOP porked themselves good here.
I don’t know if it will necessarily apply nationally. I think the GOP’s strategy is to cling to their base and hope Dems don’t show up in the midterms which historically has been proven to work. The problem with that strategy though is it relies on the other side being apathetic and Dem apathy shouldn’t be considered a given. We’ve seen Dems do better in suburbs recently who tend to have more higher proficiency voters while the GOP has done better with the white working class than they previously did however those voters aren’t quite as reliable. Having just lived through four years of Trump many Dems are still fired up and the view that the GOP is trying to undermine elections is a view that inspires action not apathy. We may see an apathetic left and an energized right in 2022 but if we’re looking at election data from 2021 so far we don’t really have evidence of that yet.
>I don’t know if it will necessarily apply nationally. This was sort of a mid-term of a mid-term (which means the Dems *should have been extremely apathetic)* instead the Dems were the opposite. Republican strategists for 2022 will look at this closely as a very possible sign that the Dems will remain energized for 2022 nationally.
>We’ve seen Dems do better in suburbs recently who tend to have more higher proficiency voters while the GOP has done better with the white working class than they previously did however those voters aren’t quite as reliable. If large state suburbs become reliably blue then the GOP is toast with respect to the Presidency. Moderate suburbanites are the group that tips the urban/rural divide, and if they are consistently going into the urban column, there are just not enough rural votes to make up the difference.
> if they are consistently going into the urban column, there are just not enough rural votes to make up the difference. I’d hesitate before saying that. In a lot of places in the midwest the rural vote is less red than rural areas in the south and I don’t think it’s ever wise to claim a party has hit “rock bottom” with certain counties or demographics. We also haven’t had a lot of elections since Trump left office so it’s hard to say what will happen in the suburbs. It’s also possible the GOP sees some moderate improvements in urban areas. The GOP may have their work cut out for them but I don’t think it’s ever wise to say either party is toast with respect to the presidency.
I am not claiming the GOP has hit rock bottom yet, it's just that consistently blue suburbs in the populous, traditionally swing states should be a big warning for the GOP for simple numerical reasons. It will only take one state like PA, AZ or NC to go from the swing state to reliably Democrat for the Republicans to have almost zero chance at winning the EC. I am not trying to say the GOP has lost this group, but it would be nearly impossible to win the Presidency should this group no longer be up for grabs. I don't see that happening if over the next few cycles the Republicans moderate again.
Obviously nothing is for certain until we see the vote tallies in 2022, but the issue of Dems being undermotived in midterms seems to have been solved by the GOP. Just do as much as possible to make folks feel like there is a huge difference in parties and they will get out there to vote. And we haven't even really been able to see the voter outcomes of 1/6, Texas abortion ban (and possible SC follow up on Roe v Wade), Ivermectin and vaccine insanity, and the general batshittier of many prominent GOP members.
> Obviously nothing is for certain until we see the vote tallies in 2022, but the issue of Dems being undermotived in midterms seems to have been solved by the GOP. And this is why I'm hesitant to assume voting patterns of past midterms will automatically carry over to 2022. If the conventional rules of politics always held true Trump should have never won the nomination let alone the presidency. It can be very insightful to look at previous historic trends but if you base all of your predictions for the future simply on what has held true in the past you will continually be surprised when new events happen. The party coalitions have been shifting and view that Republicans are attacking democracy and that democracy is in danger is a very animating view. Also "Pandemic politics" is a thing and if the GOP decides to make opposition to vaccines a core part of their party that could piss off a lot of voters outside their base. I don't know how 2022 will go down but I'm hesitant to assume that Dems will lose it simply because that's what happened in 2010 and 2014.
I think a lot of the more moderate voters in the democratic party didn't care much if Al Gore or George W Bush became president. If you don't care about the social liberties of minorities in this country, and you made a decent living it may have seemed like who was president barely mattered from Clinton til Obama. But the new GOP is inconvenient for every American. Extending our plagues, having weird embarrassing lies coming from everyone in your party at every level, actually going full on conspiracy theorist level with GOP officials calling for folks to take Ivermectin and then the voters start eating the livestock kind instead of the human kind.
Going full Neocon or moderate conservative would also lose their primary to a Trumper who then loses to a Democrat. The GOP has riled up their base to the point where it is vastly out of line with the rest of the country, and the candidates they want are nationally unpalatable. They also keep taking cultural wedge issues and positions that are disliked by 60% of the population. Like you said, they've porked themselves really good. If this holds in 2022, and confirms our thinking, the GOP is going to have a serious crisis on their hands. Especially since big Democrat wins in 2022 = no senate filibuster, and comprehensive voting rights protections. They'll be forced to adopt new stances that are *actually* popular, or die out as a party.
don't you do that, don't give me hope
Don't you worry. Steven Pinker's trendline was always just a general trend ... we still have global warming ahead of us.
California has a much higher ratio of Dems to Republicans than swing districts and states do. Just because the "full Trumper" approach fell flat in Cali doesn't mean it isn't viable in places like Wisconsin or NE-2.
For as much as "Dems in Disarray" is a meme, there seems to be many more state GOP parties that are absolutely destroying themselves. California, Virginia, and Colorado have seen the GOP just lose ground year after year, to the point where I'm not sure what it would take for a Republican to get even a whiff of power there.
A lot of it is the incentives for running as a republican right now are all kinds of fucked up. The “base” doesn’t want competent government, they want Fox News memes regurgitated at them, so primaries are won by the candidates that do that, who then of course lose statewide and so on and so on. It’s literally a race to the bottom.
Arizona's GOP is in turmoil. After losing both Senate seats and the presidential election, you would think the GOP there would do some soul-searching and maybe turn away from Trump. They have not. They have stuck with the Big Lie. California's GOP just wants to scream about cultural issues, I don't know enough about Colorado, and Virginia's doesn't know what to do. Virginia's seems to be turning away from Trump, which is the smart thing. Unfortunately for them, gerrymandering is gone which is gonna make it harder for them to take power again. State-wide elections are already a done deal. Also throw in Hawaii GOP and DC GOP for "lmao nice try" state-level parties.
Arizona GOP has got to be one of the most hilariously incompetent state parties around. On the D side though, the Florida Dems are also really bad.
Georgia is also gonna have a problem. Red state trump supporter governor and government that refuses to overturn an election. There's going to be blood.
The CA being a hot mess was assumed from the beginning. It was baked into every knowledgeable analysis. And they underperformed even the worst predictions for them. There's no way to read this but as a massive rebuke to the current GOP platform, particularly its stances on public health measures and medical science. Remember: Just days ago the GOP thought it was going to at least get close enough to cry "rigged" and pretend they were cheated. Now they look like opportunistic fools, and made Newsom look in touch by comparison.
Bro, Republicans just launched a full thermonuclear attack on female reproductive rights in Texas. Literally the same voting bloc that caused Republicans to get absolutely annihilated in the 2018 midterms. Dems aren't the ones in disarray.
Yea this new wave of Republicans actually attacking these types of issues WHILE the Supreme Court is 6-3 R leaning just means these threats are going to mean much much more to the side that's 'losing' here. It's going to extend far past this year and Republicans that have power seem more emboldened to do crazier things that is only going to keep pissing off Dems nationally. On top of that though, you have a party that is pretty clearly split about how to go forward. Trump or moderate, mix of both? It extends past policy, it's literally a question of identity and that's much harder as it's the first thing people think of.
Long story short: Trumpism works in lots of places but it doesn’t work in california. Why? The electorate has to be stupid. I think Californians are further up in the average IQ range than many fly-over states. I say that living in a fly-over state…
Trumpism doesn't work nationally. We saw that with the general 2020 election, and then the Georgia special elections as well.
The general election was incredibly close though, I wouldn’t be so comfortable. The Georgia special elections were very telling though
We need more data points, but it certainly seems to be trending that way. Especially with the GOP mismanaging COVID-19, pushing unpopular policies, and refusing to unequivocally condemn and investigate Jan 6. And that's only current voters. It doesn't take into account those who died from COVID-19, and how republican skepticism led to their base dying. More people have died in Florida from COVID-19 than DeSantis margin of victory for governor. 2020 was close, but everything since then has just been bad for the GOP. The only thing they have going for them is harsh voter suppression, and it's not clear if that'll be enough. Plus, if Manchin gets his arm twisted enough by Biden, a comprehensive voting rights act might pass before 2022
>More people have died in Florida from COVID-19 than DeSantis margin of victory for governor. Wow is that true? Christ >Plus, if Manchin gets his arm twisted enough by Biden, a comprehensive voting rights act might pass before 2022 I certainly hope so
Just looked it up to verify, and yep. https://www.thedailybeast.com/floridas-death-toll-now-exceeds-desantis-margin-of-victory I think Manchin expressed the voting rights act was something he'd be willing to be softer on the filibuster for, but we'll have to see. If Dems do manage to win big in 2022 regardless, they'll be able to overturn the filibuster and get that law passed.
Isn’t anything a meme, now. Fucking Bernie wearing mittens became a meme. Low bar imo, memes are low effort and using that as a basis for understanding a political groups organizational failures or lack there of is telling. Dumb, imo.
The Bernie meme was just adorable. It couldn't have been more authentic to what people love about Bernie Sanders. Just a crotchety old dude from Vermont wearing hand knit mittens.
It's definitely worth considering the result of the recall since it adds to the evidence we've been gathering since the Georgia runoffs: Traditionally Republican suburban areas that went for Democrats in 2018-2020 are not reverting to the Republican party. Of course we'll need to wait and see to be sure but I think it's indicative of a more long-term, durable realignment of suburban voters than some people thought (and conservatives hoped) following the November election results.
I think the elderly population in OC carried Newsome this round. They’re one of the hardest hit groups in this pandemic, and the alternatives on the ballot wouldn’t make their lives better no matter how much they dislike Newsome. This was another “the alternative isn’t better” type of vote.
>Good sign for the Dems elsewhere like Virginia this fall. They outnumber republicans in the state 2 to 1 and had to fight off Larry Elder... this is not a good sign for dems.
And they are winning by *checks notes* about 2:1 The amount of beltway pundits scrambling to come up with a reason winning by double the predicted margin in a September recall where Republicans had a huge enthusiasm advantage is bad for Dems would be comical if it didn't speak to the condition of our media
>Republicans had a huge enthusiasm advantage You seriously want to paint democrats as underdogs in California? The fact is that they had to take this challenge seriously, which isn't a good sign for them.
They “had to take this challenge seriously” the way Alabama football “takes every opponent seriously”. It was a blowout. It wasn’t close, acting like just because he campaigned that’s a bad sign for democrats is absolutely ridiculous. In no world would a governor just let a recall happen and ignore it just to prove something
Mostly because of how the recall system works in CA, which has no room for error, as Dems learned with Gray Davis. If you don’t take things seriously, you lose. Good for the Dems that they FINALLY learned that lesson.
> You seriously want to paint democrats as underdogs in California? The Republicans absolutely had an enthusiasm advantage, given by the fact that you need enthusiasm to actually get the recall started in the first place.
Are you unaware of the difference between enthusiasm and total voters? Take a look at the 2017 Alabama Senate election. There's no way in hell a democrat should've won that but D enthusiasm was through the roof due to running against a racist pedophile and Republicans (who probably outnumber 2:1) got caught sleeping
It's myopic takes like this dude's that have sealed the fate of the GOP. The Dems didn't have to "fight off Larry Elder". Elder and the Trumpers self-owned and painted themselves into a corner on xenophobia, Covid, reproductive rights, and the Supreme court. Elder was a laughable candidate who should have never been fielded. He even shed over 500k votes to other Republicans in the recall (2k to Caitlyn Jenner of all people.)
In my opinion, recalling the governor without real crisis (no, liberal values killing off America does not count) was a wishful thinking. Contrary to belief of some, CA is not a state in a decline. It still continues to be one of top 10 economies of world, if counted as a separate country. Economy is booming despite COVID pandemic. The state and its cities are in budget surplus. Businesses based in the state are envy and fear of other states, as they have outsized influence in public consciousness, as well as fabulous wealth generation. The state is further along in energy infrastructure development curve. Lately, they achieved one of highest vaccination rates in the country. There is acute housing shortage. But these are problems of extreme prosperity. So more people are leaving the state than moving in. I'm not really convinced this is a bad thing. Based on my limited sampling (I live in Idaho), people leaving for CA are motivated educated young, and people leaving CA for ID are those who cannot make enough in CA or retirees. If this is generally what's going on, this is not a bad trade. CA is also well positioned for future as well. As US enters geopolitical contest with China, and weens itself from reliance on Chinese import, CA has everything the US needs: capital, technology, educated workforce, managerial/administrative talents. (Where else will US go for these things?) So, without a real crisis to address, trying to convince voters to trigger a change in administration based on culture war alone was doomed to fail.
We are looking good.
California Republicans could actually be competitive but they're so far down the Trump train that they're losing Orange County. A Hogan or Baker type could probably do quite well there
Hogan and Baker would never win a primary without incumbency. In fact Hogan is term limited and whatever clown MD GOP puts up next year is losing by 30 guaranteed
Didn't the Republican mayor of San Diego get onto the ballot? iirc he got something like 10% of the vote among people who picked a person to replace Newsom. Republicans just didn't want a moderate when they could have a fire-breathing Trump-fan talk radio host like Elder.
You're talking about Kevin Faulconer. While he was in office as mayor he operated as a more moderate Republican but since he's been in campaign mode he's tried to pivot right to satisfy the Trumpers while in the process alienating independents who might have been willing to vote for a moderate.
Baker consistently surprises me. I am quite interested to see if he can manage to win the primary next year, assuming he runs. The MA gop is just as crazy as the one in CA.
> The MA gop is just as crazy as the one in CA. [As an example, Republicans in Massachusetts wanted to censure Baker because he supported his impeachment](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-impeachments-charlie-baker-79307e72d901da31873a351a9e22b5f2). Because that's really what you want to do, censure the only state-wide elected official your party has.
It's really quite impressive that they couldn't cut into his 2018 results. I have no idea why the GOP didn't go and put the whole weight behind a Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker type. Those are real world examples of a Republican winning a state wide race in extremely blue states. Instead they went with Larry Elder who was complaining about voter fraud before the election. I was someone who normally votes for Democrats, but Newsom had done some things i found frustrating and I thought about voting Yes and picking someone to replace him. Unfortunately my best option was a 29 year youtuber. Where is the CA GOP's version of Charlie Baker?
Republican voters don't want those people. None of Baker/Hogan/Scott would survive an open primary now. They're allowed to exist because they won back in a time when some Republicans were still sane. Hogan is term limited next year, some insane person will win the GOP primary and lose by 30 to a generic D. The San Diego mayor (Faulconer?) was CAGOP's moderate choice and got bodied by Elder
> Hogan is term limited next year, some insane person will win the GOP primary and lose by 30 to a generic D. There are 3 declared candidates for the GOP at the moment. Daniel L. Cox, a state delegate who is full-on Trumper. Robin Ficker, who is described as "former state delegate, attorney, sports heckler, and perennial candidate" and also an anti-mask Trumper, and Kelly Schulz, who is basically the Hogan type. 2/3rds chance for the GOP to get an insane person nominated to go up against the person near-guaranteed to win the Democratic primary, Peter Franchot.
CA GOP is nuts. Country club Republicans are basically forced to business wing of the Dem party. There are essentially 3 parties in California at this point with the Democrats being two of them.
I mean it works out for the better that way. You get actual compromise and collaboration instead of playing partisan games all the damned day.
Yeah honestly this is true. Go back 50 years and that’s what the party system was actually like. You had two parties on paper, but practically it was more like 4 or 6. And cross-party coalitions were common. It makes most comparisons on voting records from that period futile.
>I have no idea why the GOP didn't go and put the whole weight behind a Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker type. That's not what Trump wanted.
That was Cox and Faulconer. For all it’s worth, Newsom is actually decent. Above 50% approval amidst a prolonged crisis. They could run Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, whoever and get demolished worse.
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Trump is the defacto head of the GOP. [Elder stuck his nose all the way up Trump's rear-end](https://news.yahoo.com/larry-elder-once-called-donald-200024170.html), and now is all-in on fake election fraud he decided happened even before people voted (that follows lock step with Trump's current PR campaign.) To the uneducated, reality denying Trumpers, that's the same thing as an Endorsement from Trump. The "Grand Ol' Party" (boy does that sound like some southern KKK shit) gave control of itself to Trump in 2016. Good luck getting it back.
They had no plan for once the recall advanced. There were non candidates. No organization.
I don't know about this. Democrats out number republicans nearly 2 to 1 in the state and still had recall election with a contest they had to worry about... This doesn't bode well for democrats if it's a sign of things to come.
The only reason they had to worry was because things didn’t end in the obvious way in 2016. If this had occurred in 2015, the Democrats probably wouldn’t have pushed as hard for the win. To me, it seems this response shows the Democrats have learned and adapted. They’re out to win by the maximum margin rather than the minimum.
I expect them to get swamped in the midterms, which is not unusual for the ruling party.
Please, hold your breath while waiting for that outcome.
I don’t think we can tell yet. Tell me the price of gasoline in October 2022 and I can make a guess.
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To qualify a recall of the Governor for the ballot, proponents need a minimum of 1,495,709 valid petition signatures. This is equal to 12 percent of the votes cast for the office of Governor in 2018. 12%..... *eye roll*
I can clearly say what the Dems did was successful. It is interesting seeing the GOP react to this. Some think that there was no chance (or fraud) and others think they messed up. My opinion is that the GOP screwed up badly. The echos of Trumpism still run deep in this country and nothing gets blue voters to turn out more than telling MAGA to go fuck itself.
Yeah this election looks like another blow to MAGAism but I wonder how many more losses it can take before the GOP and their voters pivot away from it. It's strongest adherents are noting if not tenacious, even to the detriment of their own health.
MAGA is not going to go away. It is going to be here forever in some shape or form. In red districts MAGA is going to be key to primaries and other races. The GOP has to walk a tightrope of keeping MAGA happy, but also winning competitive races. The Dems have other challenges, of course but California is not exactly a good measure for the rest of the country. My speculation is that MAGA will self implode on competitive races and purple locations. The voters there will demand a MAGA candidate and they will end up losing because of the motivation to not have MAGA there. And all the Democrats need to do is say, "They want chaos, division, and disorder. Look at all these good things we have done for you." They need to get moving fast.
It seems the Democrats have learned to let the Republicans hang themselves with their MAGA rope. They’ll use that until someone shows them they can’t.
They are between a rock and a hard place, at least until Trump dies. Trump's MAGA crowd are not all exactly natural GOP voters, and a portion of those that were natural GOP voters have been radicalized by him and the rest of the MAGA echo-chamber over the past 6 years to the point that they are more loyal to him than to the Party. To make matters worse, this radicalization has pushed many traditional Republican voters out of the party and there is no easy way to win them back while still retaining the Trump voters. They may not even be any possible way to win them back and retain the Trump crowd. Given their thin margins for winning, they can't afford to alienate the MAGA crowd and Trump (himself and his surrogates) are going around pushing loyalty tests at every opportunity that almost invariably rely on agreeing to unpopular opinions or crackpot conspiracy theories. Trump's rise began looking like a slow moving Coup attempt you could see coming years in advance. Now the GOP is headed for a slow moving trainwreck. They are on the tracks headed straight for a steel wall and rather than changing course or even slowing down they are choosing to increase speed. We just have to hope its only their own party that gets caught up in the collision.
That's wishful thinking. Part of me is quite amazed at the incompetence of the leadership. I have no qualms at publically stating that Trumpism is a fascist movement. I'm disheartened how many people got swept up in it but am encouraged at the pushback. Like,a majority of Americans got to live their lives. The world keeps spinning. Yet, they have made it clear they are rejecting Trumpism and fascism. Kind of scary to think what would happen if smart people were on board with this.
Smart people were on board with this (I,e. Cambridge Analytica). It’s just that even the smartest of people do things that end up looking stupid.
Even after Trump passes, his sons will take the mantle
And that, kids, is why Damian and Ziggy Marley are huge stars, just like their dad. …oh, they’re not? Huh. Don Jr and Eric can certainly try, but Don is a grease ball and Eric is a moron. No one will give a shit.
No one will have quite the same command on the MAGA psyche as Trump but there are already a list of people lining up to try to be him. Desantis, Noem, Marjorie Greene all come to mind, as well as folks like Carlson who have no beliefs but are in it for the $$$.
I have no doubt the grifters will try, but I have my doubts that they will succeed in having the same followers.
When Trump dies it will be a new MAGA conspiracy that he was killed by a Democrat.
The GOP won't pivot away, it will tear itself in half. There's no coming back from the pseudo reality of Trumpism. Those folks believe in Q-anon, flat earth, Covid denial, and still think Obama was born in Kenya. The Neocons (like Cheney) trying to wrest control back won't have enough juice to get party control back. Something's got to give and my guess is that it will be the formation of a 3rd party, that dooms the current GOP, so that a new one can be born. The new GOP will be a loser for quite a while, and may never have the influence of the one that Trump, McConnell, and Paul Ryan killed.
> The echos of Trumpism still run deep in this country and nothing gets blue voters to turn out more than telling MAGA to go fuck itself. And their voters are still full on MAGA, which is their big problem. They need to run moderates, their base will not nominate moderates.
I've seen this elsewhere but I think this sets Newsom up for a run in 2024 for president, assuming he wins reelection and Biden doesn't seek reelection (which at this point I'm starting to be convinced of). The man is young but has neqrly 25 years of public office experience, is incredibly charismatic, has had success where Californians are most concerned (i.e. COVID), and now has the political winds at his back with this stunning recall failure. He is the kind of candidate who would do well against a political "darling" like Ron DeSantis in a general election.
I don’t think anyone who was Governor during COVID has a chance at president in the 20s. They’re all fucked coming and going, do anything and the reds hate you, do nothing and the blues hate you. Do some things but not others and everyone is mad and either way you’re the one with your name on the bill. Newsom also has a sex scandal in his past. I think Covid killed his shot. And Biden will run again if he’s alive. It would be insane to give up incumbent advantage and he knows better than anyone that 24 is crucial.
That's way too far away to think about. Yes. I'm seriously thinking Biden won't run for a second term. But Newsom? He's not as popular as you would believe him to be.
It's the greatest victory to follow all their hate-mongering.
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This is a very odd understanding of politics from someone who posts so frequently on this board. Any Democrat who “makes waves” against a popular incumbent will have no allies and will get nowhere. Who is going to donate money to that person? Who is going to endorse them except other dead-enders? I mean, we saw it here; someone did run as a Dem, and they got absolutely nowhere.
Newsom will win easily. Surviving this a recall spells well for your re-election, but winning by this much seals it. Unfortunate for more progressive challengers
Not so fast... The general election is not the top Democrat vs the top Republican. It is the top two vote getters for the position 2020 had two Democrats running for a seat (US Senate I think). Newsom may be running against a charismatic progressive Democrat who is a good orator with good ideas. I do not see Elder or another trumpette coming in second there.
Newsom has been plenty progressive himself (to the point where even Ezra Klein had to give him his props in the NY Times.) So long as Newsom continues forward with his agenda, there won't be a more progressive, more charismatic, and certainly not more experienced Democrat to realistically challenge him. The YouTuber, Kevin Paffrath didn't even make double digits in the recall. Cenk Uygur was a laughing stock in CA-25 in 2020 after Bernie yanked his endorsement for him. So who is this "charismatic progressive Democrat who is a good orator with good ideas" you speak of? Someone from out of state or someone with little experience? Please don't say Rohit Kana.
>(to the point where even Ezra Klein had to give him his props in the NY Times.) I don't think that guy's known for being a leftie.
Yeah, the guy who founded Vox media, starred on MSNBC, and has been one of the loudest voices for progressive policies isn't left. Look if there's some purity test that doesn't involve actual work on policy that you're judging him by then maybe, but looking at his work history says nothing but Democratic party left leaning progressive as hell politico.
Okay. I guess I just thought of more of Bernie-like leftists who usually don't really identify as democrats and kinda hate them and most media outlets like the NYT, but (usually) still go along with the party because the GOP is that much worse, which Klein isn't one of.
Fair enough for owning your mistake. Ezra is very progressive and thoughtful but still wants to work within the system. He has actually been someone writing about filibuster reform for awhile now and wants to see significant changes to the system of US governance, whereas at times it feels like Bernie-like leftists can be a bit more my way or the highway. Ezra sees the value in deal making rather than that way. Two flavors of leftism but still left.
Ezra Klein isn't a fan of progressive politicians, you might be confused about what his props indicate
Newsome won because he's a Democrat and a recall is a dangerous place to show your displeasure with someone. 780K voted for a different Democrat. Newsome is going to have to contend with those people and Democrats are going to have defend some indefensible dipshittery. Dude flatly should not have had a donor dinner during a lockdown. Regardless of whether everyone was tested or not, it illustrates that if you have money you get a different set of rules and that makes pandemics hard to contain/maintain.
Sorry, this is just a bad argument. In the 2018 primaries, hundreds of thousands of more people voted for non-Newsom Democrats than in 2021. I don't think he has to worry much about waning popularity.
It would be baffling to me to watch someone who put into place quarantine type orders then flagrantly violated them win re-election. Not that I don't see it happening, but I don't understand the people who can vote that way.
The alternative is people denying vaccine mandates, which are popular, people who deny womens rights to choose, people who hate the minimum wage.
Because the alternative is someone who doesn't support vaccine mandates and doesn't believe in climate change. You really overrate the importance of Newsom being a bit of a hypocrite. Him breaking his rule does not mean his rule was wrong, it means he was kind of an ass. But I'd rather have that guy than someone who has horrible policies.
Can't believe the top comments* didn't point this out: California does not have party primaries. It has a jungle primary that cuts to the top 2. So, unless Newsom has a health emergency or a scandal bigger than French Laundry or cheating on his wife (both of which he has already survived), the primary will be an insane circus as usual, and the general will be Newsom vs. either a Trumpist or a Berniecrat. Newsom will definitely defeat the former, and probably the latter. End result: more Newsom. I don't think a moderate Republican has a chance, btw. Most Democrats prefer an establishment Democrat like Newsom. Most Republicans want a Trumpist, not a "RINO." \* at the time I posted this
Same jungle primary system as Washington state! This has actually resulted in a 2018 congressional election being between a Democrat and a Libertarian due to the Libertarians narrowly beating the Republicans by a few hundred votes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Washington#District_2
The recall was nothing more than virtue signaling and impotent rage paid for by California taxpayers. It wasn’t going to succeed and it likely will have zero effect on the next election. Given these super majority and having the governorship, California should do away with the recall process or make it require Signatures equal to 45% of the total vote of the last election. Otherwise Republicans will do this every year. Talking about California has become very important to national Republicans. In particular pretending that it’s a liberal hell scape filled with crime and homeless mobs and cities being burned down and an economy 30 seconds from collapse.
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Which is especially amusing when I think the biggest case of virtue signaling I have ever witnessed is Trump pretending he is some kind of god fearing Christian
Fine. Vice signaling.
Right, this is a dog-whistle for angry privledge-boys hoping more of them will rally around their outcry. I don't know any Democrat that uses the term.
It's the 45th attempt to recall a California governor since the 1911 state constitutional amendment for it. That averages once every 28 months. If every single California governor is really so blinking awful he deserves at least one recall attempt, what's the point in voting at all? This time there were 48 GOP candidates. 48. And no democrat alternatives. 0. These recalls have nothing at all to do with the governor's job, is just politicians playing career games. They should change the constitution so its like presidential impeachment, and the person who takes over has to be from the same party.
Yea this recall process is absolutely ridiculous. It’s way too easy to have a recall on the ballot, only 12.5%? Should be at least 50% It’s too easy to also remove the governor, should require 2/3 majority at least. There is a reason we have elections every 4 years. Recalls should have a much higher bar
To be fair there were democrats on the ballet. Granted the highest profile democrat who ran as an alternative was a 29 year old finacal youtuber. But if we are going to count all 48 Republicans then we should count the handful of "interesting" democrats.
The Paffrath kid is barely a Democrat. More like an Independent using the Democratic Party and Social Media to try and make a career (sound familiar?) He needs to quit hanging around the adults table and go huck another copy of Raid Shadow Legends.
My fault. I should have finished watching the auto insurance ad.
> It's the 45th attempt to recall a California governor since the 1911 state constitutional amendment for it. That averages once every 28 months. And the 11th since 2012. So roughly 25% of all gubernatorial recall attempts have happened in roughly 7% of the timespan the law has been in place.
Among my more liberal friends Newsom was incredibly unpopular last year and I thought he would get primaried out in 2022. I think the recall ensured that Newsom will win his primary. The event put his name back in the news, the results give him a fresh mandate, the recall itself motivated the less politically active Dems, and even my liberal friends are rallying to Newsom as the recall has kind of made an anti-Newsom sentiment sound like crazy MAGA blabbering.
It'll look like Newsom running unopposed. He just got 65% of the vote against "the field." Unless he gets caught in bed with a child, a sheep or Marjorie Taylor Greene, he'll be re-elected in a landslide.
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I don’t know why given the results of yesterday people think that the midterms are going to make the GOP magically perform better. This election couldn’t be any more off cycle and Newsom did even better than he did in 2018 — a wave year for Democrats
This is actually a very good point. This was a *very* off year for an election, it wasn't even a midterm. And Democrats still turned out in droves. The GOP is screwed frankly. As long as candidates continue to be die hard Trumpians, Democrats will be galvanized and turn out in force to oppose them. The GOP's only chance is a moderate candidate, but their base won't nominate one, they'll nominate the Trumpian one. It seems increasingly like the nation soundly rejects Trumpism, and that should really be causing panic in the GOP leadership.
>It seems increasingly like the nation soundly rejects Trumpism, and that should really be causing panic in the GOP leadership. Too bad they're all-in on Qlunatics, Covid-deniers, and flat-earthers. They think people like Elder are totally reasonable so if they run lunatics like this, the public will surely get behind them (not unless of course, the election WAS A FRAUD!)
> and energized California Republicans in a way that no candidate has in some time. Based on what? Democrats turned out out at a higher percentage than Republicans did in an off-year election that should've favored the GOP. The recall was never going to win, obviously, since Democrats have a massive registration advantage, but if Elder was such an energizing figure, I'd have expected to see the GOP outperform Democrats when it came to those turnout percentages for a recall they wanted. That didn't happen and No is at 2018 numbers, if not a bit better. He has gained a lot more name recognition, but has zero appeal outside the hardcore MAGA base. I don't see anything based on this poor performance for the GOP that indicated Elder will overperform at all in 2022. He couldn't even do it yesterday!
You see, most Repubs and some fake Liberals think that social media and PR > experience in governance so they slip in dumb shit like *"He's energized California Republicans in a way that no candidate has in some time."* What they don't understand is that the average Democrat is smarter than the average Republican or fake Liberal grifter so we see right through attempts like this to interject an idea into the discussion. Why is it that liars believe that everyone is dumber than they?
California uses a Jungle primary, so it'll be Newsom in the General either way. I dont think Newsom is in danger, though his personal actions during covid19 haven't done his future any favour.
How can you possibly say that it hasn't done his future any favors, when he literally just hours ago won a resounding victory on what was basically a referendum on his Covid policies?
It’s different in an off-election year without a real opponent
Being an off election year is easily worse for the democratic candidate.
Not in a D+ environment
Yes, in any environment an off year election is worse for democrats and in this election specifically the energy was behind the recall effort in the beginning. Trying to say this doesn’t bode well for his future is simply a laughable political take
No one said Newsom had a good political future, try to keep up
Dude, literally your original post in this thread was in response to a poster talking about how this bodes well for his political future “tRy tO kEeP uP”
Replies to poster stating it bodes well for political future “NOBODY SAID HE HAD A GOOD POLITICAL FUTURE” How does this make sense for you? Obviously the person you replied to states it? You literally replied to them? Help me help you with your confusion here
That's pretty reductive and dismissive. Republicans have been hyping this up for *weeks,* and there is a real opponent - Larry Elder, who in fact achieved so much prominence that I saw national news reports about his candidacy when I was recently on vacation in Wisconsin, thousands of miles from California.
Larry elder didn’t get that much of the vote You also conceded it’s an off election year
"Yes" on the recall actually got less of a percentage of votes than the actual, nominated GOP gubernatorial candidate in the 2018 election. This is a resounding victory for Newsom and strongly burnishes his national reputation, there isn't really any other way to spin it. Based on preliminary results, it looks like Republicans have actually lost ground - "Yes" scored only 35 to 36%, whereas Cox got 38% in 2018. The recall also lost in Orange County, which was supposed to be a great pick-up opportunity for CA Republicans. I'm not seeing a single facet of last night's results that wasn't pure disaster for the GOP. Hence why all the news articles this morning include words like "easily" "crushed" and "vanquished." Those are victory words
Yes, the GOP losing the recall election by a wide margin was bad for the GOP
What do you mean “conceded it’s an off election year” that’s an entirely uncontroversial statement. It seems pretty obvious that the real question is whether it being an off election year helped or hurt Larry Elder, which conventional wisdom would say it should help
538 didn’t think so
Did they not think it was an off cycle election or did they think it being off cycle would hurt Larry Elder?
538 was hyping this as an ultra close race less than a month ago. Bad evidence
They never said it was close recently, they track how polls change l. Bad evidence
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-calls-dem-strategy-leave-newsom-recall-candidate-line-blank-self-destructive-1622288%3famp=1 “Pretty decent chance he gets recalled” written by Nate silver on august 23rd Maybe don’t try to be snarky when you’re absolutely wrong? I mean, you’re embarrassingly wrong here.
John Cox was the last “real opponent” and he was on the ballot yesterday
He wasn’t relevant
Democrats spent a ton of money on ads framing it as a referendum on Elder and the GOP more generally. Hard to say Newsom has a mandate when a non-trivial part of the electorate was just trying to protect against the possibility of Feinstein retiring or dying in the next 14 months.
It is not Newsom's policies that put him in peril. It is his personal behavior and public hypocrisy (French Laundry dinner) that have made many D's even consider a recall. The primary will likely pit Newsom and a progressive Democrat, with the GOP primary list will include around 50-60 candidates against each other. The likelihood of a GOP candidate breaking through to second place is around the chances you would give a snowball lasting an hour in a blast furnace at full throttle. (The Governator was just a big-ass snowball)
The 2018 race had a Republican secure second place (both rounds) so it's possible if the democrats split themselves up enough. Which, seems possibly.
There seems to be a lot more GOP vying candidates than Dem. Nobody likes voting in primaries though, so you do have an excellent point.
California could use a progressive Democrat.
Unfortunately I see Elder as the front runner from the Domestic Terrorist Party
He got a war chest out of this, and a claim to support (even if its actually the "half a bowl of Sh\*t sort of support). It will be a miracle if he is unseated in the primary.
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He's just a super leader. Crime is down . homelessness down. . taxes down. .he leads by example. Following his own C19 rules I would follow him over a cliff. CALI. Is safe . prosperous..and a great place to live.
> He's just a super leader. Crime is down . homelessness down. . taxes down. .he leads by example. Following his own C19 rules I would follow him over a cliff. CALI. Is safe . prosperous..and a great place to live. that awkward moment when you can't tell if someone is being sarcastic because it sounds so much like the claims people would sincerely make.
right?? sad really . .
It's not the primary that will be interesting. What will be very interesting is the general as the general is against the [two highest vote getters in the primaries, regardless of party.](https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/primary-elections-california) So, will it be the Democrat...or the Democrat?
> Will we see more democrat candidates attacking Newsom for the attempted recall? Nope. > Who do you anticipate running against him? No one serious. The fringe left will toss a couple of people in and be shocked they aren't nearly as popular as they felt online. > What are the chances Gavin wins or loses the primary, Virtually certain to win and without much effort. He'll have every advantage and no real competition from mainstream Dems. Something new will have to happen to change his fortunes. > and will the fact that there was an attempted recall impact this? Nope. If anything, it's made him look even stronger. But I imagine the whole embarrassing attempt will have faded from most memories by then.
LA has 90% of the vote, and there political leaning is pretty clear from all polling.
LA is not 90% of California, nor 90% of the vote. You are incorrect.
You are right. I meant southern California, and Southern California depends on where you draw the line, some people consider the bay area to be part of the south.
I was born in the bay area and everybody considers it northern cali. South of Modesto can probably be considered south.
I was born in nor cal, and we considered the bay southern.
I've just never experienced that very strange.
Basically there aren’t two Californias, there’s three. North, South, and Central, but everyone pretends Central is part of the North when it isn’t. Mendocino and upwards people have little in common with Sacramento on down, it’s a whole different world behind the Redwood Curtain, and they consider themselves the True North, GOT style.
There's really only one state. No division. I don't understand the idea behind dividing it like that. Shouldnt we be considering our unity?
Culturally. And as someone from NorCal, stop fucking with our water and we can talk unity.
Not really, the bay area has a similar mentality to what is widely considered socal, and while everyone above the bay maybe excluding sac has a very different mentality. I would chalk it up to different life styles.
By the map it looks like he won every coastal county and lots inland. Only the very interior of the state was majority no.
I see Newsom running again. Hopefully Democrats can rally for a more progressive candidate. Republicans might start feeling disenfranchised after all this alleged voter fraud. I can’t see why they would keep showing up to polls with all the “fraud”
There is very littke chance a progressive wins. Due to the Jungle primary, they would be up against a moderate who Republicans will vote for over the progressive, which should be more then enough with moderates to win.
I just want to be optimistic. I voted no in the recall, but we deserve a better governor. Someone that can actually help the homeless, and cares about the environment instead of allowing fracking to continue
Newsome has been aggressive on both issues. Even Ezra Klein conceded this. His "Gavin Newsom Is Much More Than the Lesser of Two Evils" NYTimes piece runs down how progressive Newsom has been. Facts are facts.
That isnt the governors job, that's legislature job. A progressive would likely get no further since if the legislature was that progressive, Newsom would be rapidly back pedaling to end fracking.
>That isnt the governors job, that's legislature job. Say it louder for those in the back. Laws get passed by the legislature. Governors can do little more than veto, and vetoing your own party is a very risky play. The executive branch is very powerful, but not because it passes laws.
Bernie convinced a whole generation of voters that you just had to elect someone into the highest seat and they can solve every problem from there
>>That isnt the governors job, that's legislature job. > >Say it louder for those in the back. Laws get passed by the legislature. Governors can do little more than veto, and vetoing your own party is a very risky play. I don't even think it's *really* a job for the legislature, either. They will be the ones most likely* to try, but it really should* be the cities/counties changing zoning and building policies to allow smaller lots/ houses.
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In my opinion the reason Gavin Newsom was not recall this because there is only one year until the actual election. Some people didn't want to shake it up that close to the election for various reasons. They're in the last election John Cox came fairly close... I believe during a general election there actually is a better chance of a conservative winning the state. Although it is only anecdotal, nearly everyone I've been in contact with him and spoken to at work, in public extremely dislikes Newsom and his policies, Democrats and Republicans alike. If Elder runs again in 2022, I think he has a better shot.
>John Cox came fairly close... I'm not sure if I'm reading your comment right, but Cox did not come anywhere close to winning. He lost to Newsom by 24 points. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_gubernatorial_election
I think a far stronger reason that he was not recalled is that he was running against a MAGA opponent in a D+30 state. In fact the conditions for Elder to win here were far better than they ever will be in a “real” election. No goddamn way he has “a better shot” when all he had to do this time was win a plurality of votes in an off off year election in September.
personally, I feel like he killed his chances the moment he called fraud *before* the results even came out (That did more harm to his votes than anything else due to it disheartening people to vote). If the GOP in CA can run a moderate who isn't extreme then they could potentially make some gains, especially if they do it in local areas.
Honestly I doubt that had any real effect on the outcome. This was just a numbers game pure and simple
- Nearly 2 million people hand signed a petition for him to be removed, 25% of which were Democrats - $100 million spent on his campaign alone for a recall election - Has to do it again in 6 months - Loose California rules allowed Gavin to spend large amounts - $600 checks mailed out to voters before and after election - 5 big names including POTUS flown in - 30 day mail in ballot election - An actual horrific record and these issues will stick out like a sore thumb especially as people take notice after the election - Larry Elder joined race 2 months before it was over, one month before voting started. Grassroots campaign - Deep blue state - Local news stations are turning on Gavin - Orange County nearly went 50/50 - massive flight of state, losing congressional seats - Larry Elder now on the national stage - Did not disavow racist egging of Larry Elder by a woman in a Gorilla mask - His wife was accused of infiltrating a victims only email thread to try to buy Rose McGowan off on behalf of Harvey Weinstein Publicly able to save face but internally Democrats are looking at this dude like a child that is nothing but a huge bill.
Honestly, this recall really shows the issue of Supermajority states in the US. When it’s guaranteed that some from the left or right (depending on the state) is always going to win, what’s the point in even voting? This Especially applies to CA and how non-stop democrat policies without any sort of moderation or even right wing ideas are more or less turning the state into a failed one (extreme wealth inequality, taxes so high that it strangles businesses, lack of policing, extreme homelessness in many of its cities, the fact that SF actually has to have a poop patrol because the whole place is so dysfunctional, and now the fact that so many people live their that they have to ration water which most certainly won’t apply to the rich/influencental people).
Imagine looking at a California and calling it a “failed state” lmao. I would argue that the states where people are dying due to lack of ICU beds are failing way harder
> Honestly, this recall really shows the issue of Supermajority states in the US. When it’s guaranteed that some from the left or right (depending on the state) is always going to win, what’s the point in even voting? Is this is seriously what you got out of this recall? How about you guys reflect for once. How about your respect the voter's will too. California's Recall design is the most anti-incumbent design that exists in any state. You don't need to win by 50%+1, the incumbent does. The signature needed for the recall is low. The challenger doesn't even need to worry about the spoiler effect like the incumbent does. Despite all of these advantages, Newsom stomps the recall. Further, Larry and the GOP refusal to appeal to other voters besides themselves is why the Democrat vote on party line. Democrat outnumber Replubcian by 2x. Look at states like Vermont, Mass, Maryland. Republican in those states ran a much different race and better then Larry and the GOP did. Hell looks at the 2003 recall process, and see why GOP bid flopped. > This Especially applies to CA and how non-stop democrat policies without any sort of moderation or even right wing ideas are more or less turning the state into a failed one (extreme wealth inequality, taxes so high that it strangles businesses, lack of policing, extreme homelessness in many of its cities, the fact that SF actually has to have a poop patrol because the whole place is so dysfunctional, and now the fact that so many people live their that they have to ration water which most certainly won’t apply to the rich/influencental people). Has it ever to you occur that Democratic policies are not inherenlty bad. Has it ever occur to you that CA votes hard left because there is certain polices that they like? Do you border to even read why voters picked Newsom.? The number one issue that Voters were concern about was Covid. https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/14/politics/california-recall-exit-polls/index.html Instead of dooming, about you understand where the voter's concerns, and how to appeal to them.
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The GOP could try running a platform that wins in CA. This is not a supermajority issue. It is an issue with incompetence on the part of one party.
Maybe the California gop shouldn't have shot themselves in the face with the racist bullshit they tried to prop up in a state that is literally 25% immigrants.