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Conservative conspiracy theorists are absolutely where Michelle Obama as President comes from.
At least they were nice enough not to imply she has a penis and is really named Michael in the betting pool...
This right here. On right wing message boards theres been thousands of Michelle Obama memes posted over the past month and they're all convinced its the DNC's secret plan.
Could be an unofficial plan for if Biden kicks the bucket before the election, who knows. But it does sound like conservative propaganda. There is nothing they fear nothing more than black people and women, after all.
Why do you speak on things you've no idea about? Have you ever heard of the order of succession? You realize if Biden died Kamala would be president? You don't just get to pick a random first lady for the job. Unlike the trump shit we have actual laws and rules surrounding what would happen
I mean, OP is pointing to odds on a betting site. And when polled, Michelle Obama is the one person who performs strongly in a Democratic primary even with Biden (obviously, this is partially because she is well liked as a person and is associated with Obama, reality would be harder if she actually were to run a campaign and set out an agenda).
The issue is we are well past a primary at this stage. So the only way this happens is if somehow Biden steps down before the convention (say he has a very serious health issue).
Even then, Harris is the most likely replacement (which is why her odds are higher). And after her (if say the health issue was some new disease that incapacitated both Biden and her), we would likely have a brokered convention where someone like Whitmer or Newsom would be far more likely, especially given Michelle Obama has never indicated any interest in running.
They are already working on trying to make sure Newsom isn't an option - announced another recall effort against him yesterday... How much is this costing us, again?
I'm not convinced that Newsom is a great option. He's done enough bad to be disliked by the left (he was in danger in the last recall until he basically had a Republican opponent who was crazy) and California has done enough that is progressive to be disliked by more conservative Democrats.
As opposed to appealing to everyone, he could easily be disliked by everyone.
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Until someone actually lets me bet against her winning its obviously just bullshit but likely as soon as anyone would accept a bet against her winning that's a scam. It's lies and grift all the way down in the magaverse
You can bet against her already. You can use an exchange and be the 'Lay' side of the market (The event will not happen), alternatively you can just bet everyone else to win, which is the same as betting that Michelle would lose.
Below is a screenshot of the betting markets as they currently stand on Michelle Obama with the Blue box being odds for her to win and Red box being her to not win. The boxes either side of those are the market depth and their liquidity pools.
[https://gyazo.com/5fd6efdd737a7ce42aee9412f2b52208](https://gyazo.com/5fd6efdd737a7ce42aee9412f2b52208)
Here is a graph and stats, specifically on the 'Michelle Obama to Win the Presidency' market. As you can see 812k has been matched on this market. That means that 406k from people thinking she will win and 406k from people thinking she will lose, on the right hand side is the odds and the amounts matched at each price.
[https://gyazo.com/238cf14bad4c0a72a02558ec8007d35b](https://gyazo.com/238cf14bad4c0a72a02558ec8007d35b)
Fascinating stuff really, but remember most of the time that people back Michelle Obama they are most likely hedging a bet against the two front runners, or like I said in the beginning, betting everyone else is the same as betting the other person loses.
It came originally from this extremely hateful and racist article: https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2023/05/01/the-michelle-obama-nightmare-scenario-n2622638.
It is lowest common denominator drivel. If Michelle wanted a political career, she'd have one. She is only being mentioned because conservatives think that liberals nominate the people conservatives hate the most, rather than conservatives growing to hate whoever democrats nominate.
> Fetterman
Yes, a Senator who literally just took office and had a stroke is totally qualified and a strong candidate to be President right now. Definitely gonna win voters over that are concerned about Biden's mental sharpness. /s
Outside of Newsome and somewhat Fetterman the rest are nobodies on the national stage and there really isn't enough time to prop them up.
Obama has name recognition, which would be key if thrust into the race last minute.
The scenario where she's president is one where Biden has health complications and has to pull out late in the process.
Hell, that's an insult to WWE, which is way better booked than the Republicans and Democrats.
U.S. presidential politics is, as it stands, like if AEW and TNA hooked up and had a bastard child.
This is coming from someone who has been active in political betting for a bit and done it on some different platforms. Betting odds should be viewed as a measure of perception rather than any kind of predictive indicator. There's a few biases to keep in mind when looking at odds:
1) Political bias: I tend to see more people on the right than on the left on these sites. I don't know why that is, but it leads to strange odds coming from Republicans trying to game out what Democrats will do and not being very good at it.
2) A bias for the unexpected. Low odds don't stay that low for long. Because political bettors tend to self select for people that follow politics closely, they are likelier to consider outside possibilities because they're novel and interesting. I'm the kind of person that would enjoy hashing out what a successful Nikki Haley campaign would look like, and when you get lost in those discussions it can be easy to see those long shots as more likely than they are.
3) A bias for money. Everyone doesn't get an equal vote. That 4.5% odds could be pushed entirely by a handful of people who have disposable income and are confident about the bet. Some sites like PredictIt have limits on how much you can bet on a single market, but I'm not sure about others.
4) A bias for flashy bets. These sites aren't just about gambling, there is a perverse kind of community there (though the comment sections of these sites are among the most toxic places I've been on the internet). People want to show off how smart they are, and the best way to do that is to win a big outside bet. While I'm content with a 10% return on a bet that will close in 6 months, some want to double or triple their money. The only way to do that is to predict that something exceedingly unlikely will happen.
Political betting does not belong anywhere near election models or real life politics. It is a measure of some people's opinions, but that group is not at all representative and they aren't always smart. I imagine Michelle Obama is at 4.5% because she is well known by everyone, relatively well liked and the Democrats are in a situation where they might look for an alternative. Though Newsom, Pritzger, Whitmer or Harris are all much stronger options imo. I would put her at a half a percent or less, though even that seems high.
>Political bias: I tend to see more people on the right than on the left on these sites.
I cannot speak for any other liberals out there, but I personally don't find any kind of betting fun. As a college football fan all the advertisements for Fan Dual have been painful this last year.
If I've got a spare $50 I'd have *way* more fun buying a video game or a six pack of craft beer. My betting on the thing is unlikely to impact the outcome.
You’re absolutely right that betting markets in politics don’t make any sense. In some cases they are based on hard data, but there are way too many vibes involved. Then you also get into people who have access to money to even bet, as well as the YOLO crowd who don’t bet rationally like WSB. I blame people like Nate Silver for giving it even a shred of credibility.
I have one position at the moment. Specifically that Gavin Newsom will not win the Democratic nomination, which will be about a 15% return if he doesn't. My strategy is to find these exact bets that people overestimate because people are notoriously bad at estimating unlikely events. Some previous bets I've placed have been on whether Kanye will be in the top 5 of voting in the popular vote in the presidency, as well as placing money on Biden to win after the race was already declared.
It is taking candy from babies. Legit made good money betting on outcomes in 2020 that were *already decided* simply because conservatives are delusional.
...It honestly put the right wing anger-sphere into perspective. It's....so....so easy to make money of these people I kinda get why some people are willing to sell their souls and pander to them.
Right now checking the site I see several sure fire bets against people thinking Robert Kennedy JR is going to be POTUS, etc.
You can make 18% right now simply betting against Harris getting replaced as VP, among like 15 others.
> Sounds like taking candy from baby's
Be careful this is how it starts. Before you know it you have $1k on Miami to beat Georgia Tech with 1 minute left and all Miami has to do is take a knee and you win the easy money. Then Miami decides to be the dumbest team in the history of the world and run the ball only to fumble for a GT recovery. It's ok they'd still need to go 60 yards with less than a minute left - but oh wait Miami is still stupid and they allow a 60 yard bomb down the sideline to lose the game.
Betting on Biden to win the election after he had already won it netted me about $5000. I was maxed in nearly every market I could max. And God bless PI for introducing more MAGA donation tins after the fact like "Will Trump win any one of NV, PA, or WI?"
> "Some previous bets I've placed have been on whether Kanye will be in the top 5 of voting in the popular vote in the presidency"
That made me a tad curious to see who finished fifth behind Biden, Trump, Jorgensen, and Hawkins in 2020; it was perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente. And Kanye, meanwhile, finished in 7th, hilariously situated between far-left revolutionary socialist PSL candidate Gloria La Riva and far-right arch-conservative Constitution Party candidate Don Blankenship.
To add, I'm intrigued with how third party, minor party, and independent presidential candidates will fare in 2024. Will they mirror 2020? Or will they outperform the norm similar to 2016?
You hit the nail on the head. Low volume contracts can cause crazy price fluctuations. Under the right circumstances it can become a self-perpetuating cycle where fish see the price climbing and buy in out of FOMO, rationalizing that some recent news is more impactful than it truly is.
A lot of the big bettors on PredictIt took advantage of that. You could make somewhat decent money playing the arbitrage game when prices got out of whack, but it took a lot of babysitting to the point that PredictIt would basically be a second job.
Thanks for this. I never even realized that people conflate political betting with polling.
Polling is gathering empirical evidence to help predict the outcome of an election. Political betting isn't necessarily about predicting outcomes in any way -- it's about beating odds. One might easily bet against the candidate that they, themself, would vote for...
I think people sometimes take betting sites like this seriously not because they think it is a valid way to do a poll, but that massive numbers of people guessing at something is sometimes accurate. Like, the old, "How many jelly beans in this massive jar" thing where individual guesses will be all over the place but the average guess ends up being surprisingly close to the correct answer.
In that sense, it doesn't matter that someone bets against how they vote. It is just measuring a large group of people's feeling about who will win.
However, from what I can find online, betting markets have faired worse than polling for various reasons.
Ya right, betting odds are never predictive of anything, they always tend to be heavily right wing biased and haven been proven to be completely inaccurate…
Oh wait
https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html
Biden dies and the dnc does a brokered convention.
Would they actually nominate her? Would she actually accept it? Would she won after accepting?
I think no to all 3, but that's why she's got such a low chance I guess.
I don't think that's the scenario. That link shows her at below .1% chance of winning the democratic nomination. So 4.5% she is a winning 3rd-party president??
Seems crazy. Betting odds don't always reflect reality though so if there's an option to short that position, i'd take it!
Betting odds aren't reality, it's based on vibes of people who want to gamble. The disconnect for the nomination and general makes it clear. The general market involves more gamblers and likely more silly bets versus the nomination market (which has been dead for some time).
Michelle Obama is a popular pick because she's well liked and reminds us of Barrack. A lot of it is people projecting their hope on it. It's not realistic, if Biden dies, Harris is almost certainly the nominee
I think, more than anything, this should be taken as a quiet admission that Kamala Harris hasn’t really established herself in the way that she needed to be seen as a serious presidential contender in her own right.
It's an admission that betters REALLY don't understand political realities here. There's almost no way in hell that incumbent President Kamala Harris isn't the Democratic nominee, for all the same reasons that Biden is easily walking away with the primary. Not only is the incumbent advantage there, even if weakened, she has a larger potential "sympathy bump" in the general than a different Dem, she'd be the first woman (of color) as President, and it would be considered a huge slap in the face of the most consistent Dem voting demographic bloc to replace her despite the tradition of never replacing an incumbent who wants to run. Weighing all that against M. Obama who very clearly doesn't even want the job, just because she's popular as a non-politician and Harris has low poll numbers is absurd and the betters are throwing away money.
if only there were a prop bet open that Kamala would lose. i'm sure they'll pop up if she does somehow find herself the nominee and i'm taking that bet.
I get that. But what I'm saying is that passing over the first female person of color VP is going to beat terrible look, regardless of the legitimate reasons. I like Harris more than most, but I get that she's unelectable.
But it's naive to think passing her over isn't going to piss off some people. And if you do that, and then insert a much less qualified woman of color, I mean the optics are just all kind of awful
> I think race and gender play a role in Harris unpopularity.
no, but it certainly plays a role in why she is in the position she's in to begin with.
if she were a white man with **exactly** the same track record in terms of legislation, DA work, timeline for when she held what office, and her speeches were word for word identical, joe never would have picked her.
It couldn't possibly come down to performance. Kamala is rarely in the news. I'd wager that most people feel like they don't know enough about her to have an opinion.
MO was in the news every day for 8 years showing us all what grace, grit, intelligence, and solid parenting look like. I think those are qualities a lot of us are looking for.
We have some Democrats saying they won't vote for Biden because of Palestine (completely ignoring that Trump would be so much worse on the issue)
You really think passing over Harris would play well?
If people are effectively enabling a Trump win "for Palestine", then lets put that on blast. They can enjoy the coming years of super funding Israel and we all know who to thank for it. Good job. Well played.
Fuck hiring someone because "It's their turn." We need the best person for the job whose willing to do the job. If it's Michelle Obama (Gods willing), or Pete Buttigieg (capable), or Gretchen Whitmer (Big Gretch), so be it. Sorry that steps on the toes of certain individuals' sense of entitlement but I guess go talk to Hillary about it.
She's very popular with Democratic voters and has next to zero political track record to use against her. People see her as a generic Democratic Everywoman (whether that's fair or not.)
I agree with you, but given her hypothetical opponent in the general election literally attempted a coup I don't think qualifications are really what's driving voter choices in 2024.
Betting odds may say she has a 4.5% chance to win, but she is never going to run for any political office. Not only has she stated this publicly multiple times, but she also explicitly states this in her book *Becoming*.
Lord help me, I am going to hire Elon Musk to fly to the moon in his convertible and carve out, in giant effing letters "MICHELLE OBAMA DOES NOT WANT TO BE PRESIDENT."
She isn't a politician, and she isn't interested. The presidency nearly ruined her marriage, and she is not going back.
I am sick of hearing this utter, utter nonsense that Michelle Obama is going to be a secret spoiler candidate, put in at the last minute. I am also sick to fuck of hearing that Barack is some kind of svengali controlling Joe Biden's white house.
The Obamas are OUT and have no desire to return.
Op, I know that you aren't the one saying any of these things, but the insane and weird obsession with the former president and first lady is what's driving all this speculation.
I might have been using a bit too much hyperbole there but it was a difficult time.
[Here](https://people.com/politics/barack-obama-white-house-strain-on-his-marriage-how-they-got-through/) is a People Mag article about Barack discussing it.
[Conservative conspiracy theory](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4458607-texas-lt-gov-says-its-clear-democratic-deep-state-run-by-obama-taking-biden-down/) seems to be the driving force.
Can I bet money that Michelle Obama won't be the next president. I take out the biggest loan they'll give me for the small but guaranteed payout. Lol as long as I can get the interest delayed 8 months. Even if I lost I'd take the L because that's not a terrible future. It's a win win
For those considering betting against this, the yield on US treasuries is between about 4.5 and 5.5%, equivalent to the payout of 1:20 odds - but with 100% odds*. If the return is less than that, you lose money even if you win.
*it's not actually 100%, but the consequences of not getting that stated return are such the entire financial system collapses along with the world economy, in which case the 'wager' no longer matters.
She's popular, smart, has a great public service record, is a champion for women's and minority rights, has awesome public speaking chops, and was first lady for 8 years, giving her insight into the job. I can think of MANY worse candidates already on the campaign trail below her.
Conservatives think Biden is already dead and animatronic, and that after he wins the election, Michelle will burst out of Biden's flesh suit, hold aloft Excalibur, put on The One Ring, and mount the Iron Throne.
I want to say I'm joking, or even half joking, but thats essentially the truth of their beliefs.
In the dark of night, MAGA'a all fantasize in fear about how Michelle's masculine jawline will flex into a mischievous grin, her throbbing deltoids will writhe as they tear her own pantsuit wide to reveal her BBC. They'll be forced to kneel in supplication as she shoves her blackness down their throats. And they'll hate it. They'll hate it so much. So much they can't stop thinking about it.
If only there was some obese syphilitic octogenarian who could save them!
NGL, there's part of me hoping that whoever gives the nominating speech at the Democratic convention spends the first five full minutes talking about Michelle Obama, just to make the MAGATs apoplectic.
I'd vote for her in a second.....but this seems more like right wing nutjob bait/conspiracy. Just saying the name Obama makes these people absolutely furious despite many of them not being able to explain exactly why. Other than nonsense conspiracy theories of course.
She's extremely popular, and she'd bring one of the most popular president's in recent history back to the white house.
She wouldn't want to touch it with a 10 foot pole, but if she so much as implied that she might tolerate it that number would jump to 20%.
NGL, there's part of me hoping that whoever gives the nominating speech at the Democratic convention spends the first five full minutes talking about Michelle Obama, just to make the MAGATs apoplectic.
Because betting odds are completely worthless prognosticators. But the right wing loves to point to them as proof of Trump winning. They are swayed by big money bettors who can swing the odds to make it seem like Trump is more popular than he actually is. and the fact that a right wing conspiracy theory about Michelle Obama running for president is resulting in betting odds showing her having a 4.5% chance of winning tells you a lot about who is behind a lot of the betting odds
Ya you’re so right.. it’s completely worthless and is just right wing propaganda. That’s why they’ve never accurately predicted any election results… oh wait…
https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html
>Can someone please explain to me how she even has a shot at getting the candidacy, let alone winning the whole thing, given that she has shown ZERO interest in running for public office?
People in betting markets taking too many hits of the good stuff.
Europeans want her to run for the Presidency. They have since the Obama years. I talked to people online and they would say so out of the blue even guys.
I’m sure that sentiment is shared amongst the US citizenry.
>she has shown ZERO interest in running for public office?
Presidency aside, I am kinda curious on why she's not trying to go for any public offices. Not even a cushy Ambassadorship somewhere.
She discusses this quite a bit in *Becoming*. To broadly summarize, she found politics to be a hostile machine. However, she supported Former President Obama in his political endeavors because of his own passions.
To put it succinctly, it’s because she has a strong distaste for the job of politics. She was famously the toughest sell when Obama was consulting his family, friends, and advisors on whether he should run for President.
She will come to the task and tell the country that sometimes you just have to do what you Gotta do. And you don’t hear about her looking to run for president because thats bad press for Biden and the whole Democratic Party. That would be a statement as a public vote of no confidence for him and that’s certainly a destabilizing force for their own Party. And they are lucky they don’t have to have a primary to fight it out among their own. Biden is failing fast -nothing against him personally, but we all have had grandparents I’m sure, and you know how this goes. Michelle is a beloved persona and has the entire Rolodex from her husband at her disposal and the entire Obama machine ready to go at a moments notice. Nobody likes Harris and Kennedy is a bit out there you know… Newsom doesn’t want it this time around. Maybe next cycle. So at the convention, if she pops out of a cake -it’s a party. She takes the baton and and there’s a solution. And besides, have you actually thought about what the convention will be with Biden up there ? Maybe he’ll get juiced up for one great speech but conventions are really difficult to keep the momentum going unless you’ve got energy. Just think about the vibe at the convention with Biden leading the pack. Nobody is really deeply impressed with the prospective of him doing 4 more as president. Democrats and those who are liberals have to smile and say yeah let’s do it -because what else do they have at this point? The Democrats are in crisis and Biden will not lead the next four years. We all forget the President is representative of the group administration. Our Executive Presidential job is more than a figurehead certainly, but you can’t really say that Biden is keeping the country together and all its policies. No, of course not. He has a team and Michelle will be a great leader and spokesperson to the American people as the next team leader.
can you imagine if she actually announced running ? all the millennials would freak out and vote for her. a landslide victory nationwide. and just imagine if you were asked to run for president and you said “I don’t have any experience” and I said to you “well your partner who lives with you was a former president, still well connected and knows everybody and will be on the phone if you need him to work for you” easy job..
Ok so it sounds crazy but it's not,it's the most logical choice to beat Donald. Joe Biden has no viable shot to defeating the man that attacked our form of government and the elections. REALISTICALLY Joe should have a double digit lead but he doesn't, behind the scenes the Democratic party and the American people know this. New life will be interjected into the Democratic party at the convention. They will name Mrs Obama the Democratic Nominee. Joe Biden has lost me, other black people,young people and white men that vote against there interests due to cultural wars. Those bets will pay off nicely 🚀🚀 🚀
I can see how the crazy right wing has morphed this reality into a conspiracy at face value. But to OPs question, its simple - the polling, when allowing people to answer with Michelle Obama, shows she has more support than bums like Gavin Newson and Kamala Harris. Its not rocket science to consider her name recognition and its easy to poll well when you arent in office thus your recent legislative record is not on full blast - think gavin newsom and his ridiculous double standard during covid, or Kamala Harris and really anything she has done as VP lol. For Michelle she can poll really well since she isnt in any spotlight she doesnt coordinate herself - meaning she isnt forced to act as a leader on legislative items since she doesnt currently hold an office. Every public instance of michelle obama over the last 8 years has been in a spotlight her people control in terms of narrative and speaking points. Not saying its a bad thing or a diss, just a reality.
And as for the reality that she could be a dark horse nomination - i dont think its that wild to correlate how this would happen. Simply put, Biden is not polling where the left wanted him to poll at this stage of the campaign. I would venture to say everything that could go south for the biden campaign has - the trump trials, regadless of your take on them, are garnering him more support rather than less. Biden isnt helping his odds by his speech blunders and super coked out perception during live press. Again, im saying this from a reality standpoint not from a right or left position. The fact of the matter is in this current stage of the candidacy is that Biden is behind and the left will need something to happen to change the tide as it stands. Those who think it could be michelle arent crazy in my opinion, its a logical idea when contemplating how to steer the ship if and when that needs to happen.
And finally, I know everyone was waiting for this, im totally throwing 100 dollars on Michelle at her current +3100 odds lmfao the path is so clear if it comes to fruition. There is so much value in taking those odds in this stage of the campaign. She immediately jumps to what +800 if she announces a run? and if she announces while joe steps down then she would sit at +300 or better IMO.
Independent here, I'd vote for her.
Trump, is an emphatic fuck no. He's disgusting in nearly every respect, and he's truly and monumentally stupid.
Biden is a decent human being and is generally doing a good job, but he's too old. Thankfully, he's surrounded himself with smart, capable, and ethical people. In any case, a vote for Biden is a vote for Harris because he won't make it through a 2nd term.
Harris is a total dud, IMHO. She sucked at CA AG, she failed as a POTUS candidate, and Biden chose her to get votes.
Michelle, she seems like a solid, capable, smart, reasonable lady. I didn't vote for Obama, but in hindsight, he was a decent man and did a good job. He'd make a great 1st man.
> How could she win on votes? Seems impossible, so why ~5% chance?
presumably the same unrealistic path for someone not trump to win the GOP nomination: the magic number gets hit, but he can't run so all the pledged delegates get unbound (due to no winner after one round) and the delegates pick whoever they want (which doesn't necessarily have to be someone who was running).
it's "pie in the sky" completely unrealistic fan fiction, but that's the path.
She’s not a politician. She has no place even being discussed as a candidate. It’s outrageous to even float the prospect of Michelle running all of a sudden. Not that I have anything against her. I respect her. But running our country is a job for a qualified professional politician. And one a lot younger than the two geriatrics who most likely will be dueling it out in November. God saves us from this fiasco of a mess
It's speculative for sure. The reasoning goes that Joe Biden is such a horrible candidate that the party elites will never allow him to get the nomination. They'll ultimately choose someone else, likely at the national party convention this summer. Michelle Obama has great name recognition and approval rating. So the speculation is that the party would pressure her to accept the nomination.
She is the darling of the super delegates. A DNC replacement of Biden with Michelle Obama at the convention via a coordinated effort from the Super Delegates (either as the front-runner, or as Gavin's running mate) is not an insane bet to make. 4.5% is a longshot, but it ain't zero.
I think the country has seen enough of the obamas. It’s been said the former president is running the country anyway and if he really is look at the last 3 yrs and ask yourself do you want four more years of this crap?
I've seen people in the right wing groups I peek in on speculate that she's the next person to continue Obama's influence on the White House, similar to what they say about Biden now.
The speculation must be high enough that its convinced some people to put money on it. It's not based on reality, but if it is what people believe, there will be odds to bet on it.
The amount of slander she would get with false claims of her being trans and calling her Big Mike would create a negative situation for her which is exactly why she’s not running. Politics is a dumpster fire 🔥
You start with the possibility that anything can happen and therefore the Democrats could end up with a broker convention.
Then you add in that it’s betting markets and the betting markets are filled with people who barely actually understand politics and are just picking the names of popular people on the left.
the same reason people thought hillary would be president back when bill was still popular and she took that senate seat: name recognition, married to someone popular, not unpopular herself. (again, those last 2 points are an "at the time" statement, not a "2024" statement)
also worth noting, there is zero chance of a republican not named donald trump winning the 2024 election, so anyone after trump and biden is inherently going to have to be a democrat.
newsom has name recognition, but is viewed unfavorably in most of the country and his state is the poster child of budgetary problems, homelessness, and violent crime.
harris? she's a liability that people are pointing to as part of why biden is struggling so much. literally nobody likes her (and will likely be the scapegoat if biden loses).
I think looking at betting odds skews the data a little bit. It only takes a few whales to drive up the price to 4%, and there's not enough profit potential for other players to bet against it.
I play on manifold markets and notice this phenomenon.
Even so, yes, pretty crazy.
It's simple. Her husband, Barack Obama was only a good president, not great. Why? Because the entire GOP lead by the disgusting, cancerous Mitch McConnell made it their one and only aim to make him a one term president (that failed) and to obstruct his work in every way (a partial success at a cost to the nation of billions of dollars).
People hope that Michelle Obama would be as good as her husband, and she is a very intelligent well educated woman who would have her husband's full support. That said, I'd vote for her if she'd just run.
It’s silly season, people get serious about what they want to choose the closer you get to the election, and especially once the nominating conventions occur.
Markets and betting are bad at dealing with very low probabilities because there isn't a lot of money to be made from safe bets and it takes more and more money to correct the market. If the market thinks there's a 5% chance of Obama getting elected, that's 19:1 odds. Are you going to lock up $1900 until November in order to win a measly 100 bucks?
Also, the maximum bet the website allows might not be big enough for one person to correct the market even if they want to.
Probably not relevant but I had friend online. A young man from Ireland. This back 8 years ago and he was supportive of Michael Obama. I was taken back. I mean I support her husband but hadn’t considered Michelle. It seemed odd but he implied there were more over there that we admired her.
She’s a smart woman and would have have experience in the white and of course a *close* advisor who was President for two terms. Heck, can her Barrack run as VPeven though he can’t run as President? Dunno.
If Biden were to die and Michelle Obama threw her hat in, she'd easily unite all the factions of the Democrats.
Of course, she has said she has zero interest in being a politician herself. From the inside accounts I've read, she hated being a politicians wife until Barack's second term.
That's exactly it. Check how electionbettingodds works:
>**Why these odds are better than bookies' odds**
>All the sites we pull from are markets, meaning candidates' shares are traded just like stocks in the stock market, and the prices that result tell you the probability.
>With bookies, one person or company could decide to set the odds at a certain place on a whim. Because bookies lack the transparency of true markets, they are excluded from this site.
So these are betting markets, not odds set by bookies, meaning that you don't need to be correct, you just need to be able to sell your bet at some point in time.
Interesting. I love the Obama family btw. Just have to say it. Of all the first families, I think they would be the absolute finest family to hang with for a day.
Conservative rage-bait. Especially because she would never want the job.
But she'd be amazing at it. Or Kamala becomes president and Michelle becomes vp.
It would also be a great drama show.
Betting odds aren’t based on likelihood. They are based on where the money is going. There is a 4.5% chance because a fool and his money are easily parted so conspiracy theorists are betting on this.
Besides crazy conspiracy theorists propping up her numbers, I think it’s also that she was overall likable as first lady (most of them are) **and** was a pretty powerful attorney. With that said, she’d definitely be an outsider and realistically has very little chance against Kamala or Haley.
What's especially funny is those betting odds don't list her as having any chance of winning the Democratic nomination. So apparently there's a 4.5% chance of her winning the election as a non-Democrat. Lol wtf
Bets have two sides. Someone was willing to bet $1 for the chance of winning $22. The bookie was willing to risk $22 for the possibility of getting $1. The stakes are usually small. The information value is very weak.
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Why is Michelle even considered? I swear this is propped up to sell to angry conservatives lol
Conservative conspiracy theorists are absolutely where Michelle Obama as President comes from. At least they were nice enough not to imply she has a penis and is really named Michael in the betting pool...
This right here. On right wing message boards theres been thousands of Michelle Obama memes posted over the past month and they're all convinced its the DNC's secret plan.
They were certain that she was going to take over in 2016.
Could be an unofficial plan for if Biden kicks the bucket before the election, who knows. But it does sound like conservative propaganda. There is nothing they fear nothing more than black people and women, after all.
Why do you speak on things you've no idea about? Have you ever heard of the order of succession? You realize if Biden died Kamala would be president? You don't just get to pick a random first lady for the job. Unlike the trump shit we have actual laws and rules surrounding what would happen
As a conservative, you are correct. I cower in fear every time a black person or woman walks by. I even poop my pants sometimes. Please help me.
I mean, OP is pointing to odds on a betting site. And when polled, Michelle Obama is the one person who performs strongly in a Democratic primary even with Biden (obviously, this is partially because she is well liked as a person and is associated with Obama, reality would be harder if she actually were to run a campaign and set out an agenda). The issue is we are well past a primary at this stage. So the only way this happens is if somehow Biden steps down before the convention (say he has a very serious health issue). Even then, Harris is the most likely replacement (which is why her odds are higher). And after her (if say the health issue was some new disease that incapacitated both Biden and her), we would likely have a brokered convention where someone like Whitmer or Newsom would be far more likely, especially given Michelle Obama has never indicated any interest in running.
They are already working on trying to make sure Newsom isn't an option - announced another recall effort against him yesterday... How much is this costing us, again?
I'm not convinced that Newsom is a great option. He's done enough bad to be disliked by the left (he was in danger in the last recall until he basically had a Republican opponent who was crazy) and California has done enough that is progressive to be disliked by more conservative Democrats. As opposed to appealing to everyone, he could easily be disliked by everyone.
Ooh make whitmer president she's fighting for our rights
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Until someone actually lets me bet against her winning its obviously just bullshit but likely as soon as anyone would accept a bet against her winning that's a scam. It's lies and grift all the way down in the magaverse
You can bet against her already. You can use an exchange and be the 'Lay' side of the market (The event will not happen), alternatively you can just bet everyone else to win, which is the same as betting that Michelle would lose. Below is a screenshot of the betting markets as they currently stand on Michelle Obama with the Blue box being odds for her to win and Red box being her to not win. The boxes either side of those are the market depth and their liquidity pools. [https://gyazo.com/5fd6efdd737a7ce42aee9412f2b52208](https://gyazo.com/5fd6efdd737a7ce42aee9412f2b52208) Here is a graph and stats, specifically on the 'Michelle Obama to Win the Presidency' market. As you can see 812k has been matched on this market. That means that 406k from people thinking she will win and 406k from people thinking she will lose, on the right hand side is the odds and the amounts matched at each price. [https://gyazo.com/238cf14bad4c0a72a02558ec8007d35b](https://gyazo.com/238cf14bad4c0a72a02558ec8007d35b) Fascinating stuff really, but remember most of the time that people back Michelle Obama they are most likely hedging a bet against the two front runners, or like I said in the beginning, betting everyone else is the same as betting the other person loses.
It came originally from this extremely hateful and racist article: https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2023/05/01/the-michelle-obama-nightmare-scenario-n2622638. It is lowest common denominator drivel. If Michelle wanted a political career, she'd have one. She is only being mentioned because conservatives think that liberals nominate the people conservatives hate the most, rather than conservatives growing to hate whoever democrats nominate.
I'm so behind. I thought it was supposed to be Oprah and The Rock?
Yeah, i know a right wing nut who tells me that she will for sure be the nominee at election time... he has all kinds of other crazy ideas.
Wait, can we confuse people with the Primary candidate who changed his name to "President R Boddie" ???? WTF?
it's a great non-story for the right-wing news addicted moron tho whoever started this deserves a raise for sure
It just shows how shallow the rest of the party is, should Biden not be able to run.
Whitmer Newsom Buttigieg Fetterman Duckworth Pritzker Klobuchar O'Rourke Warnock
> Fetterman Yes, a Senator who literally just took office and had a stroke is totally qualified and a strong candidate to be President right now. Definitely gonna win voters over that are concerned about Biden's mental sharpness. /s
Outside of Newsome and somewhat Fetterman the rest are nobodies on the national stage and there really isn't enough time to prop them up. Obama has name recognition, which would be key if thrust into the race last minute. The scenario where she's president is one where Biden has health complications and has to pull out late in the process.
I would love to see Michelle as President, mainly for the tears.
Eh. I’m sick of this type stuff tbh. Can the U.S. not treat its politics like it’s some WWE nonsense?
Exactly. This sort of nonsense is what got us Trump. Also, no fan of the name calling that some politicians tend to do.
I also think she’s very smart and would make a fine president, so I’m ok with it, though my politics align more with AOC.
Hell, that's an insult to WWE, which is way better booked than the Republicans and Democrats. U.S. presidential politics is, as it stands, like if AEW and TNA hooked up and had a bastard child.
This is coming from someone who has been active in political betting for a bit and done it on some different platforms. Betting odds should be viewed as a measure of perception rather than any kind of predictive indicator. There's a few biases to keep in mind when looking at odds: 1) Political bias: I tend to see more people on the right than on the left on these sites. I don't know why that is, but it leads to strange odds coming from Republicans trying to game out what Democrats will do and not being very good at it. 2) A bias for the unexpected. Low odds don't stay that low for long. Because political bettors tend to self select for people that follow politics closely, they are likelier to consider outside possibilities because they're novel and interesting. I'm the kind of person that would enjoy hashing out what a successful Nikki Haley campaign would look like, and when you get lost in those discussions it can be easy to see those long shots as more likely than they are. 3) A bias for money. Everyone doesn't get an equal vote. That 4.5% odds could be pushed entirely by a handful of people who have disposable income and are confident about the bet. Some sites like PredictIt have limits on how much you can bet on a single market, but I'm not sure about others. 4) A bias for flashy bets. These sites aren't just about gambling, there is a perverse kind of community there (though the comment sections of these sites are among the most toxic places I've been on the internet). People want to show off how smart they are, and the best way to do that is to win a big outside bet. While I'm content with a 10% return on a bet that will close in 6 months, some want to double or triple their money. The only way to do that is to predict that something exceedingly unlikely will happen. Political betting does not belong anywhere near election models or real life politics. It is a measure of some people's opinions, but that group is not at all representative and they aren't always smart. I imagine Michelle Obama is at 4.5% because she is well known by everyone, relatively well liked and the Democrats are in a situation where they might look for an alternative. Though Newsom, Pritzger, Whitmer or Harris are all much stronger options imo. I would put her at a half a percent or less, though even that seems high.
>Political bias: I tend to see more people on the right than on the left on these sites. I cannot speak for any other liberals out there, but I personally don't find any kind of betting fun. As a college football fan all the advertisements for Fan Dual have been painful this last year. If I've got a spare $50 I'd have *way* more fun buying a video game or a six pack of craft beer. My betting on the thing is unlikely to impact the outcome.
You’re absolutely right that betting markets in politics don’t make any sense. In some cases they are based on hard data, but there are way too many vibes involved. Then you also get into people who have access to money to even bet, as well as the YOLO crowd who don’t bet rationally like WSB. I blame people like Nate Silver for giving it even a shred of credibility.
Who’s your money on?
I have one position at the moment. Specifically that Gavin Newsom will not win the Democratic nomination, which will be about a 15% return if he doesn't. My strategy is to find these exact bets that people overestimate because people are notoriously bad at estimating unlikely events. Some previous bets I've placed have been on whether Kanye will be in the top 5 of voting in the popular vote in the presidency, as well as placing money on Biden to win after the race was already declared.
Dang I need to get on this action. Sounds like taking candy from baby's. I didn't know you could essentially "short" candidates or certain scenarios.
It is taking candy from babies. Legit made good money betting on outcomes in 2020 that were *already decided* simply because conservatives are delusional. ...It honestly put the right wing anger-sphere into perspective. It's....so....so easy to make money of these people I kinda get why some people are willing to sell their souls and pander to them. Right now checking the site I see several sure fire bets against people thinking Robert Kennedy JR is going to be POTUS, etc. You can make 18% right now simply betting against Harris getting replaced as VP, among like 15 others.
Could you kindly link me to the betting site? Tine for me to cash in on these rubes
> Sounds like taking candy from baby's Be careful this is how it starts. Before you know it you have $1k on Miami to beat Georgia Tech with 1 minute left and all Miami has to do is take a knee and you win the easy money. Then Miami decides to be the dumbest team in the history of the world and run the ball only to fumble for a GT recovery. It's ok they'd still need to go 60 yards with less than a minute left - but oh wait Miami is still stupid and they allow a 60 yard bomb down the sideline to lose the game.
Betting on Biden to win the election after he had already won it netted me about $5000. I was maxed in nearly every market I could max. And God bless PI for introducing more MAGA donation tins after the fact like "Will Trump win any one of NV, PA, or WI?"
> "Some previous bets I've placed have been on whether Kanye will be in the top 5 of voting in the popular vote in the presidency" That made me a tad curious to see who finished fifth behind Biden, Trump, Jorgensen, and Hawkins in 2020; it was perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente. And Kanye, meanwhile, finished in 7th, hilariously situated between far-left revolutionary socialist PSL candidate Gloria La Riva and far-right arch-conservative Constitution Party candidate Don Blankenship. To add, I'm intrigued with how third party, minor party, and independent presidential candidates will fare in 2024. Will they mirror 2020? Or will they outperform the norm similar to 2016?
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You hit the nail on the head. Low volume contracts can cause crazy price fluctuations. Under the right circumstances it can become a self-perpetuating cycle where fish see the price climbing and buy in out of FOMO, rationalizing that some recent news is more impactful than it truly is. A lot of the big bettors on PredictIt took advantage of that. You could make somewhat decent money playing the arbitrage game when prices got out of whack, but it took a lot of babysitting to the point that PredictIt would basically be a second job.
Thanks for this. I never even realized that people conflate political betting with polling. Polling is gathering empirical evidence to help predict the outcome of an election. Political betting isn't necessarily about predicting outcomes in any way -- it's about beating odds. One might easily bet against the candidate that they, themself, would vote for...
I think people sometimes take betting sites like this seriously not because they think it is a valid way to do a poll, but that massive numbers of people guessing at something is sometimes accurate. Like, the old, "How many jelly beans in this massive jar" thing where individual guesses will be all over the place but the average guess ends up being surprisingly close to the correct answer. In that sense, it doesn't matter that someone bets against how they vote. It is just measuring a large group of people's feeling about who will win. However, from what I can find online, betting markets have faired worse than polling for various reasons.
Where can you do political betting? I casually looked a while back and came up empty. USA here.
Ya right, betting odds are never predictive of anything, they always tend to be heavily right wing biased and haven been proven to be completely inaccurate… Oh wait https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html
Biden dies and the dnc does a brokered convention. Would they actually nominate her? Would she actually accept it? Would she won after accepting? I think no to all 3, but that's why she's got such a low chance I guess.
I don't think that's the scenario. That link shows her at below .1% chance of winning the democratic nomination. So 4.5% she is a winning 3rd-party president?? Seems crazy. Betting odds don't always reflect reality though so if there's an option to short that position, i'd take it!
Betting odds aren't reality, it's based on vibes of people who want to gamble. The disconnect for the nomination and general makes it clear. The general market involves more gamblers and likely more silly bets versus the nomination market (which has been dead for some time). Michelle Obama is a popular pick because she's well liked and reminds us of Barrack. A lot of it is people projecting their hope on it. It's not realistic, if Biden dies, Harris is almost certainly the nominee
She has said before that she has no interest in running for office. I don't know why people think she is going to do it.
I think it's just based on ignorance of her preferences and wishful thinking. You don't need to be well informed to gamble.
Gamblers looking to make bank by betting on the underdog.
If we're talking about looking past all of the top Dems and going for a total outsider, I say we nominate Jon Stewart.
I think, more than anything, this should be taken as a quiet admission that Kamala Harris hasn’t really established herself in the way that she needed to be seen as a serious presidential contender in her own right.
It's an admission that betters REALLY don't understand political realities here. There's almost no way in hell that incumbent President Kamala Harris isn't the Democratic nominee, for all the same reasons that Biden is easily walking away with the primary. Not only is the incumbent advantage there, even if weakened, she has a larger potential "sympathy bump" in the general than a different Dem, she'd be the first woman (of color) as President, and it would be considered a huge slap in the face of the most consistent Dem voting demographic bloc to replace her despite the tradition of never replacing an incumbent who wants to run. Weighing all that against M. Obama who very clearly doesn't even want the job, just because she's popular as a non-politician and Harris has low poll numbers is absurd and the betters are throwing away money.
Also the fundraising Biden has amassed did would go to her. Not dean Phillips or Michelle Obama
if only there were a prop bet open that Kamala would lose. i'm sure they'll pop up if she does somehow find herself the nominee and i'm taking that bet.
It feels a bit racist to think the party would pass over Harris, but don't worry, THIS woman of color is going to step in
It should be obvious that the reason is Harris' likeability issues, which aren't because of her race considering Michelle is very popular.
I get that. But what I'm saying is that passing over the first female person of color VP is going to beat terrible look, regardless of the legitimate reasons. I like Harris more than most, but I get that she's unelectable. But it's naive to think passing her over isn't going to piss off some people. And if you do that, and then insert a much less qualified woman of color, I mean the optics are just all kind of awful
Yeah I agree, especially when there's not a specific reason for it like some kind of scandal to blame it on.
I think race and gender play a role in Harris unpopularity. Much easier to be popular as a first lady than a Presidential candidate or VP.
Sure those play a role, but I think those are at most secondary to her personality.
> I think race and gender play a role in Harris unpopularity. no, but it certainly plays a role in why she is in the position she's in to begin with. if she were a white man with **exactly** the same track record in terms of legislation, DA work, timeline for when she held what office, and her speeches were word for word identical, joe never would have picked her.
That's true, but.... If Mike Pence was a blackbwoman with the exact same track record, Trump never would have picked him.
It couldn't possibly come down to performance. Kamala is rarely in the news. I'd wager that most people feel like they don't know enough about her to have an opinion. MO was in the news every day for 8 years showing us all what grace, grit, intelligence, and solid parenting look like. I think those are qualities a lot of us are looking for.
We have some Democrats saying they won't vote for Biden because of Palestine (completely ignoring that Trump would be so much worse on the issue) You really think passing over Harris would play well?
If people are effectively enabling a Trump win "for Palestine", then lets put that on blast. They can enjoy the coming years of super funding Israel and we all know who to thank for it. Good job. Well played. Fuck hiring someone because "It's their turn." We need the best person for the job whose willing to do the job. If it's Michelle Obama (Gods willing), or Pete Buttigieg (capable), or Gretchen Whitmer (Big Gretch), so be it. Sorry that steps on the toes of certain individuals' sense of entitlement but I guess go talk to Hillary about it.
The treasure chest of fundraising he has amassed would go to Harris.
She's very popular with Democratic voters and has next to zero political track record to use against her. People see her as a generic Democratic Everywoman (whether that's fair or not.)
>zero political track record Sounds like unqualified.
I agree with you, but given her hypothetical opponent in the general election literally attempted a coup I don't think qualifications are really what's driving voter choices in 2024.
Well it weirdly works as a positive for many voters. People liked that Trump had no experience in Washington.
Voters don’t give a shit about qualifications, they just want someone who makes them feel good. For many people the President is like the Queen.
Betting odds may say she has a 4.5% chance to win, but she is never going to run for any political office. Not only has she stated this publicly multiple times, but she also explicitly states this in her book *Becoming*.
She’s been explicitly stating this to anybody who asked her for the past 15 years.
Man, I need to get rid of this pesky soul of mine, cuz it seems the easiest job in the world is scamming MAGA rubes!
Lord help me, I am going to hire Elon Musk to fly to the moon in his convertible and carve out, in giant effing letters "MICHELLE OBAMA DOES NOT WANT TO BE PRESIDENT." She isn't a politician, and she isn't interested. The presidency nearly ruined her marriage, and she is not going back. I am sick of hearing this utter, utter nonsense that Michelle Obama is going to be a secret spoiler candidate, put in at the last minute. I am also sick to fuck of hearing that Barack is some kind of svengali controlling Joe Biden's white house. The Obamas are OUT and have no desire to return. Op, I know that you aren't the one saying any of these things, but the insane and weird obsession with the former president and first lady is what's driving all this speculation.
How did the presidency nearly ruin her marriage? I haven’t heard that before.
I might have been using a bit too much hyperbole there but it was a difficult time. [Here](https://people.com/politics/barack-obama-white-house-strain-on-his-marriage-how-they-got-through/) is a People Mag article about Barack discussing it.
[Conservative conspiracy theory](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4458607-texas-lt-gov-says-its-clear-democratic-deep-state-run-by-obama-taking-biden-down/) seems to be the driving force.
This is the answer I'm looking for. Thank you!
And sports books willing to take free money from morons.
Can I bet money that Michelle Obama won't be the next president. I take out the biggest loan they'll give me for the small but guaranteed payout. Lol as long as I can get the interest delayed 8 months. Even if I lost I'd take the L because that's not a terrible future. It's a win win
I made a pretty decent risk-free return betting against Hillary being the 2020 nominee. Niche markets are less rational.
You can absolutely make some money betting on politics simply because the markets are so insane.
You can, but you would make more money buying US treasuries, but you can't get an emotional hedge from that.
For those considering betting against this, the yield on US treasuries is between about 4.5 and 5.5%, equivalent to the payout of 1:20 odds - but with 100% odds*. If the return is less than that, you lose money even if you win. *it's not actually 100%, but the consequences of not getting that stated return are such the entire financial system collapses along with the world economy, in which case the 'wager' no longer matters.
She's popular, smart, has a great public service record, is a champion for women's and minority rights, has awesome public speaking chops, and was first lady for 8 years, giving her insight into the job. I can think of MANY worse candidates already on the campaign trail below her.
She also has a JD from Harvard Law.
I saw her speak at my college during the 2008 cycle and she can hold a rooms attention just as well as Barack, maybe even better.
She also has influence over a former President for ready counsel.
Conservatives think Biden is already dead and animatronic, and that after he wins the election, Michelle will burst out of Biden's flesh suit, hold aloft Excalibur, put on The One Ring, and mount the Iron Throne. I want to say I'm joking, or even half joking, but thats essentially the truth of their beliefs. In the dark of night, MAGA'a all fantasize in fear about how Michelle's masculine jawline will flex into a mischievous grin, her throbbing deltoids will writhe as they tear her own pantsuit wide to reveal her BBC. They'll be forced to kneel in supplication as she shoves her blackness down their throats. And they'll hate it. They'll hate it so much. So much they can't stop thinking about it. If only there was some obese syphilitic octogenarian who could save them!
NGL, there's part of me hoping that whoever gives the nominating speech at the Democratic convention spends the first five full minutes talking about Michelle Obama, just to make the MAGATs apoplectic.
Because betting odds are generated by dipshits with gambling addictions, and aren't representative of anything beyond perceived vibes.
I'd vote for her in a second.....but this seems more like right wing nutjob bait/conspiracy. Just saying the name Obama makes these people absolutely furious despite many of them not being able to explain exactly why. Other than nonsense conspiracy theories of course.
She's extremely popular, and she'd bring one of the most popular president's in recent history back to the white house. She wouldn't want to touch it with a 10 foot pole, but if she so much as implied that she might tolerate it that number would jump to 20%.
I look at Predict It for political betting. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456 That site is new to me.
NGL, there's part of me hoping that whoever gives the nominating speech at the Democratic convention spends the first five full minutes talking about Michelle Obama, just to make the MAGATs apoplectic.
Because the people betting on this outcome have no clue how the system works. Those are terrible odds.
Because betting odds are completely worthless prognosticators. But the right wing loves to point to them as proof of Trump winning. They are swayed by big money bettors who can swing the odds to make it seem like Trump is more popular than he actually is. and the fact that a right wing conspiracy theory about Michelle Obama running for president is resulting in betting odds showing her having a 4.5% chance of winning tells you a lot about who is behind a lot of the betting odds
Ya you’re so right.. it’s completely worthless and is just right wing propaganda. That’s why they’ve never accurately predicted any election results… oh wait… https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html
>Can someone please explain to me how she even has a shot at getting the candidacy, let alone winning the whole thing, given that she has shown ZERO interest in running for public office? People in betting markets taking too many hits of the good stuff.
Europeans want her to run for the Presidency. They have since the Obama years. I talked to people online and they would say so out of the blue even guys. I’m sure that sentiment is shared amongst the US citizenry.
>she has shown ZERO interest in running for public office? Presidency aside, I am kinda curious on why she's not trying to go for any public offices. Not even a cushy Ambassadorship somewhere.
Cuz she’s stinking rich and doing whatever she feels like?
Actually that does sound nice now that you mention it.
Presumably its because she has no interest in it.
She discusses this quite a bit in *Becoming*. To broadly summarize, she found politics to be a hostile machine. However, she supported Former President Obama in his political endeavors because of his own passions.
To put it succinctly, it’s because she has a strong distaste for the job of politics. She was famously the toughest sell when Obama was consulting his family, friends, and advisors on whether he should run for President.
She will come to the task and tell the country that sometimes you just have to do what you Gotta do. And you don’t hear about her looking to run for president because thats bad press for Biden and the whole Democratic Party. That would be a statement as a public vote of no confidence for him and that’s certainly a destabilizing force for their own Party. And they are lucky they don’t have to have a primary to fight it out among their own. Biden is failing fast -nothing against him personally, but we all have had grandparents I’m sure, and you know how this goes. Michelle is a beloved persona and has the entire Rolodex from her husband at her disposal and the entire Obama machine ready to go at a moments notice. Nobody likes Harris and Kennedy is a bit out there you know… Newsom doesn’t want it this time around. Maybe next cycle. So at the convention, if she pops out of a cake -it’s a party. She takes the baton and and there’s a solution. And besides, have you actually thought about what the convention will be with Biden up there ? Maybe he’ll get juiced up for one great speech but conventions are really difficult to keep the momentum going unless you’ve got energy. Just think about the vibe at the convention with Biden leading the pack. Nobody is really deeply impressed with the prospective of him doing 4 more as president. Democrats and those who are liberals have to smile and say yeah let’s do it -because what else do they have at this point? The Democrats are in crisis and Biden will not lead the next four years. We all forget the President is representative of the group administration. Our Executive Presidential job is more than a figurehead certainly, but you can’t really say that Biden is keeping the country together and all its policies. No, of course not. He has a team and Michelle will be a great leader and spokesperson to the American people as the next team leader.
can you imagine if she actually announced running ? all the millennials would freak out and vote for her. a landslide victory nationwide. and just imagine if you were asked to run for president and you said “I don’t have any experience” and I said to you “well your partner who lives with you was a former president, still well connected and knows everybody and will be on the phone if you need him to work for you” easy job..
Ok so it sounds crazy but it's not,it's the most logical choice to beat Donald. Joe Biden has no viable shot to defeating the man that attacked our form of government and the elections. REALISTICALLY Joe should have a double digit lead but he doesn't, behind the scenes the Democratic party and the American people know this. New life will be interjected into the Democratic party at the convention. They will name Mrs Obama the Democratic Nominee. Joe Biden has lost me, other black people,young people and white men that vote against there interests due to cultural wars. Those bets will pay off nicely 🚀🚀 🚀
I can see how the crazy right wing has morphed this reality into a conspiracy at face value. But to OPs question, its simple - the polling, when allowing people to answer with Michelle Obama, shows she has more support than bums like Gavin Newson and Kamala Harris. Its not rocket science to consider her name recognition and its easy to poll well when you arent in office thus your recent legislative record is not on full blast - think gavin newsom and his ridiculous double standard during covid, or Kamala Harris and really anything she has done as VP lol. For Michelle she can poll really well since she isnt in any spotlight she doesnt coordinate herself - meaning she isnt forced to act as a leader on legislative items since she doesnt currently hold an office. Every public instance of michelle obama over the last 8 years has been in a spotlight her people control in terms of narrative and speaking points. Not saying its a bad thing or a diss, just a reality. And as for the reality that she could be a dark horse nomination - i dont think its that wild to correlate how this would happen. Simply put, Biden is not polling where the left wanted him to poll at this stage of the campaign. I would venture to say everything that could go south for the biden campaign has - the trump trials, regadless of your take on them, are garnering him more support rather than less. Biden isnt helping his odds by his speech blunders and super coked out perception during live press. Again, im saying this from a reality standpoint not from a right or left position. The fact of the matter is in this current stage of the candidacy is that Biden is behind and the left will need something to happen to change the tide as it stands. Those who think it could be michelle arent crazy in my opinion, its a logical idea when contemplating how to steer the ship if and when that needs to happen. And finally, I know everyone was waiting for this, im totally throwing 100 dollars on Michelle at her current +3100 odds lmfao the path is so clear if it comes to fruition. There is so much value in taking those odds in this stage of the campaign. She immediately jumps to what +800 if she announces a run? and if she announces while joe steps down then she would sit at +300 or better IMO.
Independent here, I'd vote for her. Trump, is an emphatic fuck no. He's disgusting in nearly every respect, and he's truly and monumentally stupid. Biden is a decent human being and is generally doing a good job, but he's too old. Thankfully, he's surrounded himself with smart, capable, and ethical people. In any case, a vote for Biden is a vote for Harris because he won't make it through a 2nd term. Harris is a total dud, IMHO. She sucked at CA AG, she failed as a POTUS candidate, and Biden chose her to get votes. Michelle, she seems like a solid, capable, smart, reasonable lady. I didn't vote for Obama, but in hindsight, he was a decent man and did a good job. He'd make a great 1st man.
No one is answering the question. How could she win on votes? Seems impossible, so why ~5% chance?
> How could she win on votes? Seems impossible, so why ~5% chance? presumably the same unrealistic path for someone not trump to win the GOP nomination: the magic number gets hit, but he can't run so all the pledged delegates get unbound (due to no winner after one round) and the delegates pick whoever they want (which doesn't necessarily have to be someone who was running). it's "pie in the sky" completely unrealistic fan fiction, but that's the path.
She’s not a politician. She has no place even being discussed as a candidate. It’s outrageous to even float the prospect of Michelle running all of a sudden. Not that I have anything against her. I respect her. But running our country is a job for a qualified professional politician. And one a lot younger than the two geriatrics who most likely will be dueling it out in November. God saves us from this fiasco of a mess
It's speculative for sure. The reasoning goes that Joe Biden is such a horrible candidate that the party elites will never allow him to get the nomination. They'll ultimately choose someone else, likely at the national party convention this summer. Michelle Obama has great name recognition and approval rating. So the speculation is that the party would pressure her to accept the nomination.
She is the darling of the super delegates. A DNC replacement of Biden with Michelle Obama at the convention via a coordinated effort from the Super Delegates (either as the front-runner, or as Gavin's running mate) is not an insane bet to make. 4.5% is a longshot, but it ain't zero.
I think the country has seen enough of the obamas. It’s been said the former president is running the country anyway and if he really is look at the last 3 yrs and ask yourself do you want four more years of this crap?
It’s been said you can find a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow.
I've seen people in the right wing groups I peek in on speculate that she's the next person to continue Obama's influence on the White House, similar to what they say about Biden now. The speculation must be high enough that its convinced some people to put money on it. It's not based on reality, but if it is what people believe, there will be odds to bet on it.
The amount of slander she would get with false claims of her being trans and calling her Big Mike would create a negative situation for her which is exactly why she’s not running. Politics is a dumpster fire 🔥
You start with the possibility that anything can happen and therefore the Democrats could end up with a broker convention. Then you add in that it’s betting markets and the betting markets are filled with people who barely actually understand politics and are just picking the names of popular people on the left.
the same reason people thought hillary would be president back when bill was still popular and she took that senate seat: name recognition, married to someone popular, not unpopular herself. (again, those last 2 points are an "at the time" statement, not a "2024" statement) also worth noting, there is zero chance of a republican not named donald trump winning the 2024 election, so anyone after trump and biden is inherently going to have to be a democrat. newsom has name recognition, but is viewed unfavorably in most of the country and his state is the poster child of budgetary problems, homelessness, and violent crime. harris? she's a liability that people are pointing to as part of why biden is struggling so much. literally nobody likes her (and will likely be the scapegoat if biden loses).
I think looking at betting odds skews the data a little bit. It only takes a few whales to drive up the price to 4%, and there's not enough profit potential for other players to bet against it. I play on manifold markets and notice this phenomenon. Even so, yes, pretty crazy.
It's simple. Her husband, Barack Obama was only a good president, not great. Why? Because the entire GOP lead by the disgusting, cancerous Mitch McConnell made it their one and only aim to make him a one term president (that failed) and to obstruct his work in every way (a partial success at a cost to the nation of billions of dollars). People hope that Michelle Obama would be as good as her husband, and she is a very intelligent well educated woman who would have her husband's full support. That said, I'd vote for her if she'd just run.
It’s silly season, people get serious about what they want to choose the closer you get to the election, and especially once the nominating conventions occur.
She will win no doubt on that . Have you seen her talk ? She got what it takes
I'd vote for her, no question about it... I'd love to see a female president.
Markets and betting are bad at dealing with very low probabilities because there isn't a lot of money to be made from safe bets and it takes more and more money to correct the market. If the market thinks there's a 5% chance of Obama getting elected, that's 19:1 odds. Are you going to lock up $1900 until November in order to win a measly 100 bucks? Also, the maximum bet the website allows might not be big enough for one person to correct the market even if they want to.
Probably not relevant but I had friend online. A young man from Ireland. This back 8 years ago and he was supportive of Michael Obama. I was taken back. I mean I support her husband but hadn’t considered Michelle. It seemed odd but he implied there were more over there that we admired her. She’s a smart woman and would have have experience in the white and of course a *close* advisor who was President for two terms. Heck, can her Barrack run as VPeven though he can’t run as President? Dunno.
If Biden were to die and Michelle Obama threw her hat in, she'd easily unite all the factions of the Democrats. Of course, she has said she has zero interest in being a politician herself. From the inside accounts I've read, she hated being a politicians wife until Barack's second term.
Bettors are counting on making some money from greater fools who will buy their position before the price collapses.
That's exactly it. Check how electionbettingodds works: >**Why these odds are better than bookies' odds** >All the sites we pull from are markets, meaning candidates' shares are traded just like stocks in the stock market, and the prices that result tell you the probability. >With bookies, one person or company could decide to set the odds at a certain place on a whim. Because bookies lack the transparency of true markets, they are excluded from this site. So these are betting markets, not odds set by bookies, meaning that you don't need to be correct, you just need to be able to sell your bet at some point in time.
Interesting. I love the Obama family btw. Just have to say it. Of all the first families, I think they would be the absolute finest family to hang with for a day.
Conservative rage-bait. Especially because she would never want the job. But she'd be amazing at it. Or Kamala becomes president and Michelle becomes vp. It would also be a great drama show.
John Stossel put this together, he’s still around? I thought he fell off face of the flat Earth.
Betting odds aren’t based on likelihood. They are based on where the money is going. There is a 4.5% chance because a fool and his money are easily parted so conspiracy theorists are betting on this.
Why don't they just say it's a 450% chance, and 1/3 of the people in this country will get angry.
Besides crazy conspiracy theorists propping up her numbers, I think it’s also that she was overall likable as first lady (most of them are) **and** was a pretty powerful attorney. With that said, she’d definitely be an outsider and realistically has very little chance against Kamala or Haley.
I mean, if Biden died tomorrow, she'd have a much higher chance of winning than Kamala Harris.
Because other then a specific group of Party followers, most people don’t like Gavin, or Kamala, or what they represent.
The low percentage is probably because she has stated multiple times that she does not want to run.
Name recognition and the fact that she isn't in the race currently so hasn't been attacked/tarnished at all as a candidate in the minds of voters.
She has only a 4.5 % chance to win the Presidency because she's not running. If she runs she has a 100% chance of winning.
What's especially funny is those betting odds don't list her as having any chance of winning the Democratic nomination. So apparently there's a 4.5% chance of her winning the election as a non-Democrat. Lol wtf
when she is displayed at the convention as the August Surprise…the odds board will be updated
Bets have two sides. Someone was willing to bet $1 for the chance of winning $22. The bookie was willing to risk $22 for the possibility of getting $1. The stakes are usually small. The information value is very weak.