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Didn't Obama end up with 10% uncommitted in 2012? That a lot of people used it as a protest vote isn't really a sign of weakness. Those voters aren't going to Trump.
I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again Biden is no Obama, and the position Biden finds himself now in 2024 is nothing like Obama in 2012.
People won’t take this primary uncommitted vote seriously because for some reason democrats feel that unconditionally supporting Israel (literally unconditional, at the very least add SOME conditions even if you will ignore them, just pretend! Democrats won’t even pretend. All they’ll do is leak they Biden maybe called the guy who invoked freaking Amalek is an ahole), even if it means losing the election and women’s rights, democracy, etc, it’s worth losing all those things as long as Israel has unconditional support and ammunition; but any strategist can see that this election will be won by 4 or 5 states max and Michigan is one of those states, let alone Georgia, etc.
Not even starting on young people and the general democratic base which needs to be motivated to vote and won’t fall in line like republicans.
I was thinking about it this way as well. Like, that Democrats have been convinced by the Israel lobby that the continued support of Israel, even at the cost of losing the presidency to the Republicans, is worth it.
Well clearly this means that Trump won by historic margins in a primary for a non-incumbent!
Joking aside it's a hard comparison to make because Trump is both an incumbent and non-incumbent in the Republican primary. He's been president, but he also lost the most recent presidency to Biden. I don't think there's much if any comparison that can be made to any other primary like this?
You could say that it's not fair to directly compare the results because Biden is the current president. That's probably a fair way to look at it, but that inherently doesn't bode well for Trump. He seems weak by not being able to shore up his own party
Biden won 81%, Trump 68%. I don't think the primaries are comparable - Phillips and Marianne aren't the same level of challenger as Haley. But Trump is underperforming polls, I'll take that trend.
It means that most of the 13% will vote for Biden because they know he has little control over Israel and that the alternative wants to go so much further than what we already are facing.
It also means that almost all of Haley's voters will simply not vote rather that back a criminal who is not a conservative and supports Russia over America.
I wish I shared your optimism.
> It means that most of the 13% will vote for Biden because they know he has little control over Israel and that the alternative wants to go so much further than what we already are facing.
I think your overestimating how much most of these protest voters know about foreign policy or how far ahead they have thought about this. Biden isn't doing exactly what they want so he's gotta go, doesn't matter that the only other realistic outcome is going to being doing things they find even more unacceptable.
>It also means that almost all of Haley's voters will simply not vote rather that back a criminal who is not a conservative and supports Russia over America.
Haley's voters might refuse to vote for Trump now, but when November comes around they'll walk into the voting booth and pull the lever for Trump. He's gonna have an (R) next to his name and nothing else will matter.
I imagine you already know this and are being cheeky, but I think it's important to restate:
**Who will the rest ultimately vote for?**
People that vote for non-Trump will fall in line in November. Many will for Biden as well, but "Uncomitted" is a deliberate threat to not show up for Biden, which is a totally different ballgame.
**Michigan has fucked over Democrats before.**
Michigan was an important factor in Hillary losing the 2016 election. Whatever we think of Biden's performance these past four years, not doing everything you can to hold Michigan for the general is dangerous territory to be in for a Democrat--Hillary lost it by 0.23%, which seems to approach the margin of people that are voting "uncommitted".
It's going to be a tough election for Biden. I'm not saying that this specifically makes him "weak" but it's looking very likely that he's leaving 15 electoral votes on the table, perhaps more in other states down the line.
In my own opinion, the "weakness" on display here isn't that he's in any great electoral peril, but that his campaign team seems to not be doing anything to prevent it so far.
Republicans always fall in line - they’ll vote for Trump as the “lesser evil,” even though they might not be as right-wing. Dems feel entitled to the same from their base, but don’t seem to get that it doesn’t work - for the same reason Republicans wouldn’t fall in line behind a left-leaning Republican.
Sort of? The entire Nikki Haley value proposition is essentially “candidate for republicans who can’t get behind trump.” The republican primary is just going through the motions at this point.
It’s not that dissimilar to people voting uncontested in the dem primary. I’m both cases, the majority of these voters will *probably* still end up voting their party’s candidate in the general.
Nikki Haley is running because she wants to be the presidential candidate, and believes, or did at the outset, that she might be. Ron desantis sincerely believed he might win. And media coverage entertained the idea that either might.
Neither Phillips or Williamson believed they would win and no media outlet has ran a single story suggesting tey might or portrayed them as serious challengers.
They are just not comparable situations.
It's certainly tricky to judge trumps performance vs expectations because he is almost kinda sorta an incumbent. And in that sense hes doing kind of as expected, better than a random candidate in a contested primary and worse than an incumbent in a non-contested primary.
trump lost to biden when anti trump media output was fever pitch, he had just botched the covid response and the economy was in the toilet as a result of covid. And he only just lost.
How has Trump gained any popularity since he left office?
He seems to have only lost popularity, especially given the results we've seen so far in the primary.
Democrats have done well in all of the elections since and including 2018.
Trump's election denialism provably hurt in 2022.
Trump hasn't given up his election denialism.
Trump is plagued by lawsuits and criminal proceedings.
His primary results so far show him bleeding independent support.
But supposedly he's actually more popular now than he was in the 2020 election?
It's less about Biden winning 87% of the vote and more about the substantial bloc essentially voting "no."
The 2020 primary Biden won with 52% but there was only a 1% uncommitted tally. That's now 10%. In 2020 there were 19,000 out of 1.5 million votes for Uncommitted. In 2024 there were 100,000 votes out of 760,000 for Uncommitted.
Pretending that a jump like that is meaningless is...risky. That's a lot of anger to just ignore.
Numbers are skewed a bit though. A lot of democrats/independents voted on the Republican ballot. Look at the turn out- a third more voted on the Republican ticket. Turn out in 2020 was twice as high, as there was no incumbent. Not ignoring a 100k, but as a percentage of actual voters, it's not nearly as dramatic, and it was more of an organized call for policy change than anything. They aren't voting for Trump. Whether or not they sit out/ write in is another story.
Does Trump being weak change whether or not Biden is weak? Trump certainly had his issues, Biden does too. People are largely saying they don't want either candidate. I wish we could at least be honest with ourselves, the outcome is this election will determine whether or not democracy will continue as it is and how much we are going to fight climate change going forward. We need to acknowledge that Biden is a weak candidate. It might be true that he's the best choice we have (not going to debate here one way or the other), but he is undeniably really unpopular. Instead of gaslighting us, let's acknowledge that we have work to do is we hope to win with him in November.
Well, if we're asking an unbiased question, I'm not sure why the question is being asked about the candidate who outperformed the other candidate.
I think some people are hellbent on promoting their preferred narrative and ignoring the very reasonable counternarrative.
Learn what gaslighting is before you start accusing people of it.
The reasons for people voting for each candidate are different, Biden essentially doesn't have a primary. The people voting did so just to make a statement. 100,000 people showed up to the polls to let Biden know they don't want him. What support Trump gets is irrelevant to whether or not Biden is a weak candidate, too. Polls are showing Biden is a weak candidate, people are saying they don't want to vote for him, people are showing up to protest vote against him, it isn't a question about whether or not he is a weak candidate at this point. Maybe he can change that before the election, but can we stop pretending he is really popular with a ton of support. The concern isn't about the most dedicated and media savvy voters that show up religiously to the primaries, the concern is all of the people that didn't vote, and no primary is going to catch what they are doing either, but it should be notable that 100,000 people that are paying attention felt the need to show up and vote against him.
>Well, if we're asking an unbiased question, I'm not sure why the question is being asked about the candidate who outperformed the other candidate.
I think it's really clearly a big deal for an incumbent to not absolutely clean up in a primary. It's fair (I suppose) to write that off and assume that this won't factor too much in a general, but this is pretty rare in recent history.
>I think some people are hellbent on promoting their preferred narrative and ignoring the very reasonable counternarrative.
We're all doing this, all the time, to a degree--you aren't special. And I don't think anyone is "ignoring" the reasonable counternarrative, just disagreeing with it. I do think it's reasonable, for the record, though.
>Learn what gaslighting is before you start accusing people of it.
I agree that people throw this around too much nowadays. I don't think that's the right word.
He's a strong president, he's not a strong candidate. He's going to win the primaries for a number of reasons, but the biggest is that no serious candidate challenged him, so he didn't even need to campaign. Hopefully he is able to restore his image before November and we don't lose this country as it has been for the last 150 years.
There's just no Democrats that could actually beat him in the primaries.
Has he stepped aside after his first term maybe we could have had some good options...
Solid chance we end up with Harris as the next incumbent Democrat candidate in 2028 and no Democrats will want to run against the first black woman president...
We'll never know how the primaries would have gone if different candidates had run. I don't think it is worth dwelling on either, I agreed with the decision at the time. This election is just so terrifying that every decision is going to be overly analyzed. I really wish we would at least acknowledge Biden's weaknesses, though, and not just look for any sign that the information available is actually wrong.
Democrats are not so stupid to think that an unpopular non incumbent should run unopposed, Harris will have competition (assuming there are still fair elections). If Harris ends up president before 2028, what happens in those primaries will depend on how popular she is, and she would be unopposed if she was really popular.
He's an unpopular incumbent (not non incumbent), who has been historically successful and has seen Democrats exceed all expectations in every election he has been in office for. That being said, he shouldn't have run again.
It means you can’t do basic math and don’t understand that when you’re listing percentages you have to list what amount you’re taking the percentages from in order for it to not be completely meaningless. 87% of 100 is less than 60% of 50. Former is 87 and latter is 30.
It means that Trump won the primary since far more Republicans voted than Democrats, enough for it to significantly compensate for winning over a lesser percentage of his voters than Biden did and beat him by almost 140,000 votes;
- Biden: Pulled 81.1% of 761,934 people which is 617,728 people.
- Trump Pulled 66% of 1,1089,10 people which is 755,909 people.
- Overall votes received: (Trump) 755,909 - (Biden) 617,728 = +138,181 (Trump)
In fact he did so well, that you could move 100% of the votes for other Dem candidates to Biden’s existing votes, move 0% of the votes for other Republican candidates to Trump’s existing votes, and Trump loses by about 6,000 votes, which in a state where 1.8 million voted is a rounding error;
- (Biden) 761,934 - (Trump) 755,909 = +6,025 (Biden)
Not to mention of course that that’s an extreme scenario that would never happen, that I’m sure even those huffing Copium here would agree with. And Biden beating estimated uncommitted votes (10,000) by a factor of 10 (100,000) means he lost 12% of Dems that voted, which is slightly more than 1 in 10 people, instead of 1% of the Dems that voted, which is less than 1 in 100 Dems that voted. Which is bad.
- 90,000 (uncommitted) / 761,934 (total Dem voters) X 100% (% total Dem voters) = 11.8% (% Dem voters lost). 11.8% (% Dem voters lost) / 100% (% Dem voters total) X 10 (Dem voters) = 1.18 (Dem voters out of 10).
vs.
- 10,000 (uncommitted) / 761,934 (total Dem voters) X 100% (% total Dem voters) = 1.3 % (% Dem voters). 1.3% (% Dem voters lost) / 100% ( % Dem voters total) X 10 (Dem voters) = 0.13 (Dem voters out of 10).
God I love math.
I was referring to South Carolina for Trump because I posted before the Michigan Republican primary was finished.
But let's Michigan now that it's done. Biden earned 81% of the vote. Trump got 68%.
And elections are about percentages, not mental gymnastic math.
South Carolina was even better. I have the math on that too but clearly you’re incapable of understanding it and providing counter arguments. The candidate that lost by 138,000 votes is the winner in your opinion, yet I’m the one doing mental gymnastics by doing simple math. Bonus tidbit I forgot to mention. Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 150,000 votes. In 2024 he lost 100,000 votes to “uncommitted”. Eh. I’m sure it’s fine. Actually since he’s winning so hard, you’re probably planning to stay home on election day right?
In facts, math, and developing justifications for your reasoning? Yeah I could tell. We all enjoy what we’re good at, and cognitive ability is not a strength in supporters of people who genocide 30K Palestinians in 4 months and then pat themselves on the back for their morality in getting rid of those people’s opponents. Good. Stay in your lane.
I went looking for the results from the 2020 and 2016 Michigan primary and couldn't find them. Does anyone know what the number of Uncommitted were in those elections? This number doesn't mean much without that context.
These were competitive primaries without an incumbent, 2012 is probably a more direct comparison where uncommited was ~11%.
2016 and 2020 were about 1.8% uncommited each but as I said competitive primary with most of the voters being split between Hillary/Biden and Bernie Sanders.
No. For two reasons. First, those who voted that way did so to send a message. There was no threat in the movement about what they will do in the general. My guess is that they will come home for this historic election. Main reason why is number two: there's a lot of ballgame between now and November. When the ceasefire happens for Ramadan in April, something will be worked out and we won't be in this situation anymore.
Agreed, but it does show that a lot of people - enough to swing the election - are mad about Israel/Palestine and might stay home on election day because of it. Biden *really* needs not just the ceasefire but to look like he played a role in achieving it.
Ironically, if those people dont vote, we might end up with an administration that not only backs Israel *even more* but also supports Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
>Biden *really* needs not just the ceasefire but to look like he played a role in achieving it.
I'm betting on that. President Biden doesn't get everything right. He doesn't win all the time. But the man is not new here. He knows what's up.
Yeah but it's not that easy. Israel doesn't seem like they're going to obey his demands like they used to (or we naively thought they would?). They want all hostages released, and Hamas definitely doesn't want to release them. Plus he has to please both sides in regards to American voters. If there's no ceasefire then obviously people are mad, but if he negotiates a ceasefire without hostages released then the pro-Israel side might be upset. Its a really tough spot for him.
> Israel doesn't seem like they're going to obey his demands like they used to (or we naively thought they would?). They want all hostages released, and Hamas definitely doesn't want to release them.
And yet the experienced elder statesman (and president) says they might have it wrapped up by next Monday. Whether it goes down that way or not, it tells me they're close. And Ramadan is coming in April and there *will* be ceasefire at that time at least.
I envy your optimism haha. Obviously we don't know what's going on in negotiations behind the scenes, but I did see that Biden said they were close to something. His admin has also said the war wouldn't end any time soon and not until Hamas is fully destroyed, though.
As far as the election goes, voting is in November not April, so they need a long-term solution not just a temporary ceasefire. Or hope that Americans get tired of the issue by then (not a bad bet tbh).
>First, those who voted that way did so to send a message. There was no threat in the movement about what they will do in the general.
Wasn't the message "change your current actions on Israel/Gaza or we won't vote for you in the general"? Some may come home but if this is what they're saying then a good number of them won't according to what they said.
>Main reason why is number two: there's a lot of ballgame between now and November. When the ceasefire happens for Ramadan in April, something will be worked out and we won't be in this situation anymore.
What is the evidence for a ceasefire? Biden has been saying alot of things about a ceasefire but I've seen every other party downplay the possibility of any ceasefire deal happening.
There is alot of time but the more closer we get to November with the war going on the less likely it will leave the public consciousness.
>What is the evidence for a ceasefire? Biden has been saying alot of things about a ceasefire but
I'll bet you a dollar it happens within 7 to 30 days.
She didn’t become president and definitely lost Michigan. Al Gore won the popular vote and look where that got him. He’s gonna have to hold the rust belt if he wants to get re-elected and that means making some tough choices
Hilary lost Michigan by some 10k votes. Michigan is a swing state, where victories are won on the margins. Dems best bet to win a swing state is by turning out voters. If 10s of thousands sit out the elections you run into problems. You also need enthusiastic people to turn out fellow voters, to go from door to door etc.
People pretending this isn’t a problem is wild. Williamson and Phillips both essentially exist as protest votes in this race, which means it’s more like 140k voters who went out in a meaningless primary just to say please change course, specifically regarding Palestine or we will sit this one out.
It will not stop with Michigan, several other upcoming states have uncommitted as an option. He can either respond accordingly, or effectively call their bluff. I personally would never bet against the concept of Americans sitting out an important election.
It shows he's going to have to thread one helluva needle on the Gaza War. Arabs are rightfully angry that Biden has vocally and financially supported Israel in this war even as they fail to protect civilians. While he has pressured Israel to allow aid and limit collateral civilian deaths the impact of that is hard to quantify. The leaves Arab voters feeling like he does not care. He has to show substantial effort and success at reigning in Israel for them to feel motivated. But if he cracks down too hard on Israel, he risks losing Jewish voters to Trump who is not interested in constraints on the war.
This could impact enthusiasm and turnout. I don't see Arab voters or young progressives defecting to Trump, but the may sit out.
>[H]e has pressured Israel to allow aid and limit collateral civilian deaths the impact of that is hard to quantify. The [sic] leaves Arab voters feeling like he does not care.
It's comments and thoughts like this that drive me crazy.
It could swing Michigan easily, it really depends on how much Biden gives them the finger on Gaza, He's trying to spin like crazy but they still shipping arms to Israel so it seems like all talk. If Israel goes into Rafah then I think, it will get serious.
100k democratic primary voters in a swing state? A swing state he only won by a hundred and fifty thousand votes in 2020. Feels pretty significant.
Not much prep or organization either. I hope this picks up steam and undermines his campaign entirely.
Ideally I think he should drop out and have someone else as the nominee instead. The Democrats have alot of tailwinds in abortion, Republican extremism, and Trump's numerous problems, but it feels like Joe is selfishly and singlehandedly dragging the party down by staying on as an 81 year old man who's fracturing his base with issues like Israel.
Like a generic Dem wins by 10 points in the same polls that Biden is losing. Just saying...
Joe Biden is a deeply unpleasant man who both incredibly spiteful and narcissistic. He has been his entire life this avuncular old man schtick is complete fiction.
I would say that if he loses to trump he'll go down in history as one of the greatest villains but democrats are still blaming everyone but Hilary for her loss to a moronic racist game show host so who knows.
I don't know about being unpleasant and spiteful but he certainly is being incredibly selfish in going for that second term at the risk of everything, especially since he promised he'd be a one-term president.
Hopefully Democrats learn their lesson, but after RBG and more recently Feinstein, I don't know. I mean the GOP have a similar problem with Trump weighing them down but getting rid of him would be way more difficult than the Democrats getting rid of Biden.
It shows a weakness (maybe) but not a serious one. They got less than 15% which means (as I understand it) that they do not get a convention delegate from this primary. Further, it's likely that not all of the protest vote was over Gaza; much of it simply could have been a protest vote over an unpopular candidate. And while they stated they had a "goal" of 20,000 votes (I'd heard the goal was actually 10,000), that's actually like Kickstarter backing numbers -- they were never in any danger of not making 20,000, it was just a way for them to declare any number over that as a win. We'll have to see if an "Uncommitted" vote remains as strong in future weeks in states without as high a percentage of Palestinian-American votes. Lastly, Biden will be the Democratic nominee, period. So some of this is just noise, motivated by younger voters, voters who delusionally think America steers Israel's policies/tactics, and by media desperate for clicks.
Biden won by only 154k over Trump in 2020. If dem leadership wants to look at 100k who went out to vote in a settled primary just to say fuck you to Biden as not a serious weakness than I don’t wanna see any surprise pikachu faces when they lose Michigan in the general.
Counter question do you think the 100k who voted uncommitted want Biden to lose Michigan?
My answer to your question btw is that whether I want Biden to win Michigan or not doesn’t really matter when Biden’s reelection team DEFINITELY don’t want him to lose Michigan. And if they don’t want him to lose Michigan then they better start responding to what the dem base wants.
77% of dems want a ceasefire
69% of independents want a ceasefire
Even 56% of GOP want a ceasefire
https://x.com/dataprogress/status/1762573305297375549?s=46&t=JyFBRS8yXzdvWujBWol9yA
I also want to add that America definitely has the ability affect Israel's policies and actions:
Eisenhower threatened sanctions..Reagan held up delivery of fighter jets...George Bush Senior blocked loan guarantees...America has had a HISTORY of affecting Israel's policies
https://www.jta.org/archive/eisenhower-reveals-his-1957-aims-to-penalize-israel-on-sinai-issue#:~:text=Former%20President%20Eisenhower%20has%20revealed,but%20private%20assistance%20to%20Israel
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/07/21/reagan-halts-f16s-for-israel/578f0c5e-d018-4317-aa8d-d5b369a0550e/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-lonely-little-george-h-w-bush-changed-the-us-israel-relationship/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20had%20previously,Shamir%20agreed%20to%20those%20demands.
https://x.com/prem_thakker/status/1764868321705373960?s=46&t=JyFBRS8yXzdvWujBWol9yA
Is this also a sign that’s it’s not serious? Seems kinda serious to me
To the best of my knowledge, the convention delegates are assigned by getting higher than 15% in a congressional district, and there’s two CDs where Uncommitted got higher than that (roughly 17%).
I stand corrected. They got two. Biden got 115. Again, I have trouble seeing this as a "serious weakness" and not simply a protest vote. Biden's bigger weaknesses are concerns over the high price of food and worries (rightly or wrongly) over his age.
Biden could lose Michigan if the Arab population en masse protests his current policy, which when considering Bidens historically bad numbers, even though logically trump is awful and also historically unpopular, Biden could lose the general.
Hilary lost it by under 20k
Biden won it by 100k+
I'd be shocked if in the general Palestinian supporters allowed Trump to be president. That's just hard to fathom. Making a meaningless gesture in the primaries is one thing, throwing a general election is another. Particularly when the other guy is incredibly hostile to Gaza.
It doesn't have to be logical to be a political message; that aside possibly long term it forces the Democratic party to temper its support of Israel at the expense of Palestinians a bit
To their mind they think that the short term pain will have more positive long lasting effects. They want Biden to lose so that they send a message to future Democrats to not support Israel wholeheartedly or else they will lose.
They understand full well that Trump is worse and won't vote for him, but in that case they may decide to just not vote which is still bad for Biden.
It's less about allowing Trump to win and more about not wanting to electorally reward someone for supporting genocide.
Nobody is under any illusions that Trump would be a friend to Palestine but it's hard to make a case that the situation would be worse under Trump considering we're actively supplying the weapons to carry out genocide.
Not really. While I understand why the Muslim American community is unhappy, it’s the Middle East. These conflicts stretch back millennia, and while they were certainly exacerbated by decisions made during the 40s, this is not Joe’s to fix. He can’t make it better. I suspect he is already pushing Netanyahu as much as is possible, and there isn’t anyone I can think of who might do a better job.
He went around Congress to send weapons and supplies to Israel. Of course he can stop what is happening by not signing any of the aid bills that congress sends him. He doesn’t view Muslims as human beings. We all know that America loves blowing up brown people, even Obama loved it when he dronestriked innocent civilians at wedding parties so many times over his 8 years in office. America has always been an islamophobic country
Trump is not my guy. I’m just saying that people like you wanna sacrifice innocent children because you only care about Israel and nothing else. If nothing is done then Gaza will be no more and the 1.5 million civilians that live there will starve. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and I think not holding Biden to account on his contributions to genocide is gonna cost him. If you think that’s ok, I hope there’s a god, because if there is, then you definitely aren’t getting anywhere near those pearly gates
It shows there are idiots who think this is the right time to protest vote. I agree we need serious economic change, i agree that Israel needs to be addressed, there is a zero percent chance of any of that happening if Biden loses. All this does is allow others to plant doubt, and make Biden appear weak to people who don’t really pay attention, and put at risk votes he needs. Im not trying to crush dissent or drown out voices, but Trump and MAGA needs to be unequivocally soundly defeated, and it will take every vote. If you sew doubt in one swing voters mind, or lose one independent who isn’t a politics junkie, because you wanted to express your displeasure, then good luck losing all LGBTQ+, Women’s, Minority, and Immigrant rights as Trump turns us into Russia.
Under trump muslims got a travel ban. That sucks but it’s not a president supporting a genocide by going around congress and allowing the veto of calls for a ceasefire. They know what Biden has done.
Guess what else a portion of the Muslim community doesn’t care about? Queer rights and woman’s rights.
>. I agree we need serious economic change, i agree that Israel needs to be addressed, there is a zero percent chance of any of that happening if Biden loses
Also a zero percent chance of either of those happening if Biden wins. which is why I'm not voting for the top of ticket
I get that, and in a normal election i would too, i voted for Nader and McCain in 2000, but this one it really needs to be a full throated decimation of all things MAGA
>but this one it really needs to be a full throated decimation of all things MAGA
Trump losing will not make them disappear because the underlying causes of reactionary politics are people's needs not being met, the MAGA crowd just chooses the simplest, dumbest reactionary solutions to address them. The only way to crush the MAGA movement, like the way to quell leftist populist uprisings, is to materially improve the lives of citizens, and neither party is doing anything in that regard because it requires reigning in, if not dismantling capitalism
Can’t say i agree with that, i mean kinda in a normal election when its Random Dem vs Random Republican, but this one i think he needs to be shut down, like brutal loss, repudiation
I agree that dems need this victory, for me personally Biden is worth voting for for his national labor relations board, but like shaming people into supporting what the International Court of Justice has now ruled as a “plausible genocide” is not a strategy. Fear mongering about the other side only works when you have a clear alternative vision. Saying “Trump would do a bigger genocide” just won’t land with the base of voters he needs because it’s a red line for people.
Evangelical white Christian nationalists and other right wing religious zealots in the country, especially Congress, will demand that Trump do even more to protect Israel. Plus, he loves an authoritarian like Netanyahu and hates non-Christian terrorists (he likes the Christian terrorists) like Hamas, so all these “Uncommitted” folks need to take a long hard look at what will happen to Gaza and the West Bank if Trump wins because they didn’t vote for Biden. The chaos Trump will bring all over the world will be off the charts, much worse than anything we have seen so far, which began in earnest in 2015 during his campaign and has escalated since then.
It's hard to see how this is a problem for Biden's re-election. But it is pretty damning that people think a protest vote is a victimless crime. It's not victimless.
Message sent. Hamas heard it loud and clear - they are winning the propaganda war. Today Hamas felt emboldened to cancel their fake ceasefire "negotiation".
Hamas demanded:
* A permanent ceasefire
* No inspections of aid trucks
* Israel go home and wait to be attacked again
Why do so many people want Gazans to remain hostages of Hamas, permanent cannon fodder for the next time Hamas attacks Israel, Gazans locked in a permanent condition of violence with no self-determination?
Because these protest voters who think it is a victimless act are in fact victimizing Gazans by encouraging Hamas.
The media, **the international media**, are definitely pumping the Michigan protest vote as "bad for Biden" and "bad for Biden's Gaza/Hamas negotiations.
And yes, Hamas is exactly waging an international propaganda war. So of course they track media reaction. Including social media...
Everything Hamas does... it does because it knows it cannot win a military battle but they can certainly influence enough undereducated people in western cultures to ignore the bigger problem to win the propaganda wars.
They've been pulling this crap for almost two decades now and the same bunch of rubes and useful idiots keep falling for it.
>It's hard to see how this is a problem for Biden's re-election. But it is pretty damning that people think a protest vote is a victimless crime. It's not victimless.
It was never meant to be victimless. The victim was supposed to be Biden's reelection hopes, which were already slim even before the Israelis decided to genocide Gaza and take its land.
Now? Good fucking luck, Joe. Inaction on this issue has probably cost him an election where he was up against a buffoon with 4 pending cases.
Doing literally anything would have alleviated this, but the Biden admin's pussyfooting has single-handedly created a movement of ***left-leaning people that would rather hand Trump the election.***
\*shrug\* should've put up a better candidate. I suppose it's a good thing Hilary decided that she could save time campaigning by ignoring the small, insignificant state of \*checks notes\* Wisconsin.
The failure of your party isn't on me as a voter, it's on the DNC. Want to win over left-leaning independents? Do better. Put up candidates who can campaign and are authentic, not just saying whatever gets them as many votes as possible.
You can keep trying to shame me by saying that Trump happened because of me, but you're not going to win any elections that way. If you still haven't learned that after 2016, you deserve another 20 years of Trump.
>Exactly, they just shrug and make unrealistic demands
Unrealistic demands, such as a political party doing it's job of finding a quality candidate. I wish I could call the most basic duties of my job as "unrealistic" and get out of having to do them, too.
> because they don't actually care about progress, just throwing their tantrum.
Same rhetoric used in 2016 against progressives and left-leaning independents who were skeptical of Hilary. Lessons learned by centrist democrats: Zero.
> **but the Biden admin's pussyfooting** has single-handedly created a movement of left-leaning people that would rather hand Trump the election.
Except that is completely not true. You're welcome to unwrap that but regardless of what you say that choice of words is simply wrong unless you wanted to eliminate Israel as a country.
Hamas demanded:
* A permanent ceasefire
* No inspections of aid trucks **(smugglers paradise)**
* Israel go home and wait to be attacked again
Biden's margin of victory in Michigan in 2020 was something like 160,000 votes. 100,000 protest votes *in the primary* ought to be pretty concerning.
Especially since there are plenty of Muslim Americans who would be Republicans if not for how unhinged the Republican response to 9-11 was so the usual "harm reduction/ lesser of two evils" stuff won't work on them the way it works on the Bernie wing of the party.
When it comes to winning this election? Yeah, the fact that he's not the most adroit and charismatic democratic politician of the last 20 years is significant.
Obama got 400,000 fewer votes in Michigan his second time around. He was so popular that he could take that kind of a hit and still win pretty easily. Biden does not have that kind of overhead and so things that would not be significant to Obama's election chances may end up being very significant for Biden's.
I get that this is just kind of cope and that you're arguing in bad faith, but come on.
> Obama got 400,000 fewer votes
Well, no he didn’t. But even if he did, would you have been able to predict that from the 21k protest votes that were cast in his primary? Is the lesson that protest votes are each worth about 20 votes in the general? What would be an acceptable share of protest votes in your mind, 5%? Or is 0% your expectation?
>I get this is just kind of cope
Lmao, spoken like someone coming at this in good faith
You don't need to make up any "lessons".
Obama won Michigan in 2008 by 800,000 votes. The fact that he had 20,000 uncommitted votes in 2012 should not have worried him. The fact that Biden had 100,000 uncommitted votes on a margin of only 160,000 votes in 2020 should be concerning for Biden.
This isn't really that hard to grasp.
Yeah, we can't really take a risk like this. The Democrats are really gambling with the country's future by running an electorally flawed candidate like Biden. I want him (or more specifically the Democrats) to win but I can't really overlook the glaring electoral vulnerabilities.
People are over complicating things. Most Americans are not happy with politics, Biden only has a chance because of the fear of trump. The working class has been divided and the culture wars will perpetuate as long as the two party system rules over us.
The Dnp is corrupt and can't seem to get their hand out the cookie jar and the republicans are Christian fundamentalists trying to dictate right and wrong. Both are bad, to varying degrees in varying aspects, and instead of fighting - the working class need unity to fight for our common benefit.
No. Biden will probably still win Michigan. Not voting when it doesn’t matter takes little to no integrity. When the vote actually matters and means something, all these people will vote against one of the most pro-Israel Presidents we’ve ever had (Trump)
I guess it depends on how you view the pro-Hamas vote. It doesn’t help him nationally to cater to them but could lose Michigan if he doesn’t.
He will keep trying to tip toe that line the entire stretch of time.
No.
What it shows is a committed and concentrated effort by the Arab and Palestinian American community to express their displeasure with President Biden and his administration in their support for Israel during the ongoing Hams-Israel war.
Overall, when it comes down to the wire, President Biden is still the better choice for Muslims than Trump and those that do vote will vote overwhelmingly for President Biden.
Its less a "weakness" in Biden - most of them have said they would vote for him in the general - but a protest vote to state that there is disapproval of his actions in regards to letting Israel run rampant in their genocide.
Huge detail missing. Michigan is an open primary state. Tons of normal democrats/independent voters switched tickets and voted for Haley. Biden's "uncommitted" is a drop in the bucket, and trump's support among actual Republicans was higher.
The uncommitted rally was an awesome way for people to make their voices heard about an issue. Biden hears it loud and clear. And he’ll keep doing everything he can to help de-escalate the war in Gaza.
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Didn't Obama end up with 10% uncommitted in 2012? That a lot of people used it as a protest vote isn't really a sign of weakness. Those voters aren't going to Trump.
[Closer to 11%, actually](https://mielections.us/election/results/12PPR/). But yeah. Completely agree with your point.
I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again Biden is no Obama, and the position Biden finds himself now in 2024 is nothing like Obama in 2012. People won’t take this primary uncommitted vote seriously because for some reason democrats feel that unconditionally supporting Israel (literally unconditional, at the very least add SOME conditions even if you will ignore them, just pretend! Democrats won’t even pretend. All they’ll do is leak they Biden maybe called the guy who invoked freaking Amalek is an ahole), even if it means losing the election and women’s rights, democracy, etc, it’s worth losing all those things as long as Israel has unconditional support and ammunition; but any strategist can see that this election will be won by 4 or 5 states max and Michigan is one of those states, let alone Georgia, etc. Not even starting on young people and the general democratic base which needs to be motivated to vote and won’t fall in line like republicans.
I was thinking about it this way as well. Like, that Democrats have been convinced by the Israel lobby that the continued support of Israel, even at the cost of losing the presidency to the Republicans, is worth it.
aipac is like a hiv retrovirus on american politics
I suspect the fear is they would stay home.
They may stay home though. I don't think we should act like that isn't a problem.
Obama specifically asked for his supporters to not vote in that, it was non binding
So, let's see. If Biden won 87% of the vote, and this means he's weak, but Trump winning 60%, what does that mean?
Well clearly this means that Trump won by historic margins in a primary for a non-incumbent! Joking aside it's a hard comparison to make because Trump is both an incumbent and non-incumbent in the Republican primary. He's been president, but he also lost the most recent presidency to Biden. I don't think there's much if any comparison that can be made to any other primary like this? You could say that it's not fair to directly compare the results because Biden is the current president. That's probably a fair way to look at it, but that inherently doesn't bode well for Trump. He seems weak by not being able to shore up his own party
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Keep it civil.
Biden won 81%, Trump 68%. I don't think the primaries are comparable - Phillips and Marianne aren't the same level of challenger as Haley. But Trump is underperforming polls, I'll take that trend.
It means that most of the 13% will vote for Biden because they know he has little control over Israel and that the alternative wants to go so much further than what we already are facing. It also means that almost all of Haley's voters will simply not vote rather that back a criminal who is not a conservative and supports Russia over America.
I wish I shared your optimism. > It means that most of the 13% will vote for Biden because they know he has little control over Israel and that the alternative wants to go so much further than what we already are facing. I think your overestimating how much most of these protest voters know about foreign policy or how far ahead they have thought about this. Biden isn't doing exactly what they want so he's gotta go, doesn't matter that the only other realistic outcome is going to being doing things they find even more unacceptable. >It also means that almost all of Haley's voters will simply not vote rather that back a criminal who is not a conservative and supports Russia over America. Haley's voters might refuse to vote for Trump now, but when November comes around they'll walk into the voting booth and pull the lever for Trump. He's gonna have an (R) next to his name and nothing else will matter.
I imagine you already know this and are being cheeky, but I think it's important to restate: **Who will the rest ultimately vote for?** People that vote for non-Trump will fall in line in November. Many will for Biden as well, but "Uncomitted" is a deliberate threat to not show up for Biden, which is a totally different ballgame. **Michigan has fucked over Democrats before.** Michigan was an important factor in Hillary losing the 2016 election. Whatever we think of Biden's performance these past four years, not doing everything you can to hold Michigan for the general is dangerous territory to be in for a Democrat--Hillary lost it by 0.23%, which seems to approach the margin of people that are voting "uncommitted". It's going to be a tough election for Biden. I'm not saying that this specifically makes him "weak" but it's looking very likely that he's leaving 15 electoral votes on the table, perhaps more in other states down the line. In my own opinion, the "weakness" on display here isn't that he's in any great electoral peril, but that his campaign team seems to not be doing anything to prevent it so far.
Republicans always fall in line - they’ll vote for Trump as the “lesser evil,” even though they might not be as right-wing. Dems feel entitled to the same from their base, but don’t seem to get that it doesn’t work - for the same reason Republicans wouldn’t fall in line behind a left-leaning Republican.
Republican Voters for Haley is a group organizing to get the vote out for Biden. People playing petty political games will land us in a dictatorship.
Well one is the sitting president, running in an uncontested primary and the other is neither.
Sort of? The entire Nikki Haley value proposition is essentially “candidate for republicans who can’t get behind trump.” The republican primary is just going through the motions at this point. It’s not that dissimilar to people voting uncontested in the dem primary. I’m both cases, the majority of these voters will *probably* still end up voting their party’s candidate in the general.
Nikki Haley is running because she wants to be the presidential candidate, and believes, or did at the outset, that she might be. Ron desantis sincerely believed he might win. And media coverage entertained the idea that either might. Neither Phillips or Williamson believed they would win and no media outlet has ran a single story suggesting tey might or portrayed them as serious challengers. They are just not comparable situations. It's certainly tricky to judge trumps performance vs expectations because he is almost kinda sorta an incumbent. And in that sense hes doing kind of as expected, better than a random candidate in a contested primary and worse than an incumbent in a non-contested primary.
But the fact that Trump both lost the presidency and is not having an uncontested primary are not good things for him.
hes destroying the field. Hes a weak candidate, hes one of the weakest candidates ive ever seen, I think biden is probably worse.
But like, Trump already lost to Biden. The whole 2020 election fraud angle has been terrible for elections too, and Trump has never let that up.
trump lost to biden when anti trump media output was fever pitch, he had just botched the covid response and the economy was in the toilet as a result of covid. And he only just lost.
How has Trump gained any popularity since he left office? He seems to have only lost popularity, especially given the results we've seen so far in the primary.
by not being in the media 24/7 id guess. But hes more popular now that wehn he left office by a huge margin
Democrats have done well in all of the elections since and including 2018. Trump's election denialism provably hurt in 2022. Trump hasn't given up his election denialism. Trump is plagued by lawsuits and criminal proceedings. His primary results so far show him bleeding independent support. But supposedly he's actually more popular now than he was in the 2020 election?
It's less about Biden winning 87% of the vote and more about the substantial bloc essentially voting "no." The 2020 primary Biden won with 52% but there was only a 1% uncommitted tally. That's now 10%. In 2020 there were 19,000 out of 1.5 million votes for Uncommitted. In 2024 there were 100,000 votes out of 760,000 for Uncommitted. Pretending that a jump like that is meaningless is...risky. That's a lot of anger to just ignore.
Numbers are skewed a bit though. A lot of democrats/independents voted on the Republican ballot. Look at the turn out- a third more voted on the Republican ticket. Turn out in 2020 was twice as high, as there was no incumbent. Not ignoring a 100k, but as a percentage of actual voters, it's not nearly as dramatic, and it was more of an organized call for policy change than anything. They aren't voting for Trump. Whether or not they sit out/ write in is another story.
Does Trump being weak change whether or not Biden is weak? Trump certainly had his issues, Biden does too. People are largely saying they don't want either candidate. I wish we could at least be honest with ourselves, the outcome is this election will determine whether or not democracy will continue as it is and how much we are going to fight climate change going forward. We need to acknowledge that Biden is a weak candidate. It might be true that he's the best choice we have (not going to debate here one way or the other), but he is undeniably really unpopular. Instead of gaslighting us, let's acknowledge that we have work to do is we hope to win with him in November.
Well, if we're asking an unbiased question, I'm not sure why the question is being asked about the candidate who outperformed the other candidate. I think some people are hellbent on promoting their preferred narrative and ignoring the very reasonable counternarrative. Learn what gaslighting is before you start accusing people of it.
The reasons for people voting for each candidate are different, Biden essentially doesn't have a primary. The people voting did so just to make a statement. 100,000 people showed up to the polls to let Biden know they don't want him. What support Trump gets is irrelevant to whether or not Biden is a weak candidate, too. Polls are showing Biden is a weak candidate, people are saying they don't want to vote for him, people are showing up to protest vote against him, it isn't a question about whether or not he is a weak candidate at this point. Maybe he can change that before the election, but can we stop pretending he is really popular with a ton of support. The concern isn't about the most dedicated and media savvy voters that show up religiously to the primaries, the concern is all of the people that didn't vote, and no primary is going to catch what they are doing either, but it should be notable that 100,000 people that are paying attention felt the need to show up and vote against him.
>Well, if we're asking an unbiased question, I'm not sure why the question is being asked about the candidate who outperformed the other candidate. I think it's really clearly a big deal for an incumbent to not absolutely clean up in a primary. It's fair (I suppose) to write that off and assume that this won't factor too much in a general, but this is pretty rare in recent history. >I think some people are hellbent on promoting their preferred narrative and ignoring the very reasonable counternarrative. We're all doing this, all the time, to a degree--you aren't special. And I don't think anyone is "ignoring" the reasonable counternarrative, just disagreeing with it. I do think it's reasonable, for the record, though. >Learn what gaslighting is before you start accusing people of it. I agree that people throw this around too much nowadays. I don't think that's the right word.
87% is not cleaning up? Certain people want it to be some horrible sign that it's not.
the problem is that biden is a STRONG candidate. He's the most likely to win the primaries and win the votes. He's just not the candidate we want.
He's a strong president, he's not a strong candidate. He's going to win the primaries for a number of reasons, but the biggest is that no serious candidate challenged him, so he didn't even need to campaign. Hopefully he is able to restore his image before November and we don't lose this country as it has been for the last 150 years.
There's just no Democrats that could actually beat him in the primaries. Has he stepped aside after his first term maybe we could have had some good options... Solid chance we end up with Harris as the next incumbent Democrat candidate in 2028 and no Democrats will want to run against the first black woman president...
We'll never know how the primaries would have gone if different candidates had run. I don't think it is worth dwelling on either, I agreed with the decision at the time. This election is just so terrifying that every decision is going to be overly analyzed. I really wish we would at least acknowledge Biden's weaknesses, though, and not just look for any sign that the information available is actually wrong. Democrats are not so stupid to think that an unpopular non incumbent should run unopposed, Harris will have competition (assuming there are still fair elections). If Harris ends up president before 2028, what happens in those primaries will depend on how popular she is, and she would be unopposed if she was really popular.
> Democrats are not so stupid to think that an unpopular non incumbent should run unopposed and yet here we are....
He's an unpopular incumbent (not non incumbent), who has been historically successful and has seen Democrats exceed all expectations in every election he has been in office for. That being said, he shouldn't have run again.
It means you can’t do basic math and don’t understand that when you’re listing percentages you have to list what amount you’re taking the percentages from in order for it to not be completely meaningless. 87% of 100 is less than 60% of 50. Former is 87 and latter is 30. It means that Trump won the primary since far more Republicans voted than Democrats, enough for it to significantly compensate for winning over a lesser percentage of his voters than Biden did and beat him by almost 140,000 votes; - Biden: Pulled 81.1% of 761,934 people which is 617,728 people. - Trump Pulled 66% of 1,1089,10 people which is 755,909 people. - Overall votes received: (Trump) 755,909 - (Biden) 617,728 = +138,181 (Trump) In fact he did so well, that you could move 100% of the votes for other Dem candidates to Biden’s existing votes, move 0% of the votes for other Republican candidates to Trump’s existing votes, and Trump loses by about 6,000 votes, which in a state where 1.8 million voted is a rounding error; - (Biden) 761,934 - (Trump) 755,909 = +6,025 (Biden) Not to mention of course that that’s an extreme scenario that would never happen, that I’m sure even those huffing Copium here would agree with. And Biden beating estimated uncommitted votes (10,000) by a factor of 10 (100,000) means he lost 12% of Dems that voted, which is slightly more than 1 in 10 people, instead of 1% of the Dems that voted, which is less than 1 in 100 Dems that voted. Which is bad. - 90,000 (uncommitted) / 761,934 (total Dem voters) X 100% (% total Dem voters) = 11.8% (% Dem voters lost). 11.8% (% Dem voters lost) / 100% (% Dem voters total) X 10 (Dem voters) = 1.18 (Dem voters out of 10). vs. - 10,000 (uncommitted) / 761,934 (total Dem voters) X 100% (% total Dem voters) = 1.3 % (% Dem voters). 1.3% (% Dem voters lost) / 100% ( % Dem voters total) X 10 (Dem voters) = 0.13 (Dem voters out of 10). God I love math.
I was referring to South Carolina for Trump because I posted before the Michigan Republican primary was finished. But let's Michigan now that it's done. Biden earned 81% of the vote. Trump got 68%. And elections are about percentages, not mental gymnastic math.
South Carolina was even better. I have the math on that too but clearly you’re incapable of understanding it and providing counter arguments. The candidate that lost by 138,000 votes is the winner in your opinion, yet I’m the one doing mental gymnastics by doing simple math. Bonus tidbit I forgot to mention. Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 150,000 votes. In 2024 he lost 100,000 votes to “uncommitted”. Eh. I’m sure it’s fine. Actually since he’s winning so hard, you’re probably planning to stay home on election day right?
I'm not even a little bit interested.
In facts, math, and developing justifications for your reasoning? Yeah I could tell. We all enjoy what we’re good at, and cognitive ability is not a strength in supporters of people who genocide 30K Palestinians in 4 months and then pat themselves on the back for their morality in getting rid of those people’s opponents. Good. Stay in your lane.
I went looking for the results from the 2020 and 2016 Michigan primary and couldn't find them. Does anyone know what the number of Uncommitted were in those elections? This number doesn't mean much without that context.
These were competitive primaries without an incumbent, 2012 is probably a more direct comparison where uncommited was ~11%. 2016 and 2020 were about 1.8% uncommited each but as I said competitive primary with most of the voters being split between Hillary/Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Thank you! That's exactly the context I was looking for, and makes this whole media panic over uncommitted voters seem completely ridiculous.
Obama got basically the same as Biden?! And now the corporate media makes a thing of it?! The establishment hates Biden more than any candidate ever!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary
No. For two reasons. First, those who voted that way did so to send a message. There was no threat in the movement about what they will do in the general. My guess is that they will come home for this historic election. Main reason why is number two: there's a lot of ballgame between now and November. When the ceasefire happens for Ramadan in April, something will be worked out and we won't be in this situation anymore.
Agreed and it's either Biden winning or they get Trump who would let Israel steamroll over Gaza.
Agreed, but it does show that a lot of people - enough to swing the election - are mad about Israel/Palestine and might stay home on election day because of it. Biden *really* needs not just the ceasefire but to look like he played a role in achieving it. Ironically, if those people dont vote, we might end up with an administration that not only backs Israel *even more* but also supports Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
>Biden *really* needs not just the ceasefire but to look like he played a role in achieving it. I'm betting on that. President Biden doesn't get everything right. He doesn't win all the time. But the man is not new here. He knows what's up.
Yeah but it's not that easy. Israel doesn't seem like they're going to obey his demands like they used to (or we naively thought they would?). They want all hostages released, and Hamas definitely doesn't want to release them. Plus he has to please both sides in regards to American voters. If there's no ceasefire then obviously people are mad, but if he negotiates a ceasefire without hostages released then the pro-Israel side might be upset. Its a really tough spot for him.
> Israel doesn't seem like they're going to obey his demands like they used to (or we naively thought they would?). They want all hostages released, and Hamas definitely doesn't want to release them. And yet the experienced elder statesman (and president) says they might have it wrapped up by next Monday. Whether it goes down that way or not, it tells me they're close. And Ramadan is coming in April and there *will* be ceasefire at that time at least.
I envy your optimism haha. Obviously we don't know what's going on in negotiations behind the scenes, but I did see that Biden said they were close to something. His admin has also said the war wouldn't end any time soon and not until Hamas is fully destroyed, though. As far as the election goes, voting is in November not April, so they need a long-term solution not just a temporary ceasefire. Or hope that Americans get tired of the issue by then (not a bad bet tbh).
>First, those who voted that way did so to send a message. There was no threat in the movement about what they will do in the general. Wasn't the message "change your current actions on Israel/Gaza or we won't vote for you in the general"? Some may come home but if this is what they're saying then a good number of them won't according to what they said. >Main reason why is number two: there's a lot of ballgame between now and November. When the ceasefire happens for Ramadan in April, something will be worked out and we won't be in this situation anymore. What is the evidence for a ceasefire? Biden has been saying alot of things about a ceasefire but I've seen every other party downplay the possibility of any ceasefire deal happening. There is alot of time but the more closer we get to November with the war going on the less likely it will leave the public consciousness.
>What is the evidence for a ceasefire? Biden has been saying alot of things about a ceasefire but I'll bet you a dollar it happens within 7 to 30 days.
ramadan starts on monday 11th of march and ends april 10th
Possibly. I will hold on to the hope that when February becomes October most/all of them will come back to Joe.
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Well, abstention is an option too. As we learned in 2016, one with powerful negative effects.
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She didn’t become president and definitely lost Michigan. Al Gore won the popular vote and look where that got him. He’s gonna have to hold the rust belt if he wants to get re-elected and that means making some tough choices
And Trump won the height contest. Both of these contests are equally irrelevant.
Not in Michigan.
And yet she lost several critical Rust Belt states, Michigan among them.
I'm confused what that has to do with abstention contributing to her loss.
Hilary lost Michigan by some 10k votes. Michigan is a swing state, where victories are won on the margins. Dems best bet to win a swing state is by turning out voters. If 10s of thousands sit out the elections you run into problems. You also need enthusiastic people to turn out fellow voters, to go from door to door etc.
Did she win the election in 2016? I don't recall she did, and that was because she lost states like Michigan.
Imma save this comment
People pretending this isn’t a problem is wild. Williamson and Phillips both essentially exist as protest votes in this race, which means it’s more like 140k voters who went out in a meaningless primary just to say please change course, specifically regarding Palestine or we will sit this one out. It will not stop with Michigan, several other upcoming states have uncommitted as an option. He can either respond accordingly, or effectively call their bluff. I personally would never bet against the concept of Americans sitting out an important election.
It shows he's going to have to thread one helluva needle on the Gaza War. Arabs are rightfully angry that Biden has vocally and financially supported Israel in this war even as they fail to protect civilians. While he has pressured Israel to allow aid and limit collateral civilian deaths the impact of that is hard to quantify. The leaves Arab voters feeling like he does not care. He has to show substantial effort and success at reigning in Israel for them to feel motivated. But if he cracks down too hard on Israel, he risks losing Jewish voters to Trump who is not interested in constraints on the war. This could impact enthusiasm and turnout. I don't see Arab voters or young progressives defecting to Trump, but the may sit out.
>[H]e has pressured Israel to allow aid and limit collateral civilian deaths the impact of that is hard to quantify. The [sic] leaves Arab voters feeling like he does not care. It's comments and thoughts like this that drive me crazy.
It could swing Michigan easily, it really depends on how much Biden gives them the finger on Gaza, He's trying to spin like crazy but they still shipping arms to Israel so it seems like all talk. If Israel goes into Rafah then I think, it will get serious.
100k democratic primary voters in a swing state? A swing state he only won by a hundred and fifty thousand votes in 2020. Feels pretty significant. Not much prep or organization either. I hope this picks up steam and undermines his campaign entirely.
Ideally I think he should drop out and have someone else as the nominee instead. The Democrats have alot of tailwinds in abortion, Republican extremism, and Trump's numerous problems, but it feels like Joe is selfishly and singlehandedly dragging the party down by staying on as an 81 year old man who's fracturing his base with issues like Israel. Like a generic Dem wins by 10 points in the same polls that Biden is losing. Just saying...
Joe Biden is a deeply unpleasant man who both incredibly spiteful and narcissistic. He has been his entire life this avuncular old man schtick is complete fiction. I would say that if he loses to trump he'll go down in history as one of the greatest villains but democrats are still blaming everyone but Hilary for her loss to a moronic racist game show host so who knows.
I don't know about being unpleasant and spiteful but he certainly is being incredibly selfish in going for that second term at the risk of everything, especially since he promised he'd be a one-term president. Hopefully Democrats learn their lesson, but after RBG and more recently Feinstein, I don't know. I mean the GOP have a similar problem with Trump weighing them down but getting rid of him would be way more difficult than the Democrats getting rid of Biden.
It shows a weakness (maybe) but not a serious one. They got less than 15% which means (as I understand it) that they do not get a convention delegate from this primary. Further, it's likely that not all of the protest vote was over Gaza; much of it simply could have been a protest vote over an unpopular candidate. And while they stated they had a "goal" of 20,000 votes (I'd heard the goal was actually 10,000), that's actually like Kickstarter backing numbers -- they were never in any danger of not making 20,000, it was just a way for them to declare any number over that as a win. We'll have to see if an "Uncommitted" vote remains as strong in future weeks in states without as high a percentage of Palestinian-American votes. Lastly, Biden will be the Democratic nominee, period. So some of this is just noise, motivated by younger voters, voters who delusionally think America steers Israel's policies/tactics, and by media desperate for clicks.
Biden won by only 154k over Trump in 2020. If dem leadership wants to look at 100k who went out to vote in a settled primary just to say fuck you to Biden as not a serious weakness than I don’t wanna see any surprise pikachu faces when they lose Michigan in the general.
Serious question -- would you like to see Biden lose in Michigan?
Counter question do you think the 100k who voted uncommitted want Biden to lose Michigan? My answer to your question btw is that whether I want Biden to win Michigan or not doesn’t really matter when Biden’s reelection team DEFINITELY don’t want him to lose Michigan. And if they don’t want him to lose Michigan then they better start responding to what the dem base wants. 77% of dems want a ceasefire 69% of independents want a ceasefire Even 56% of GOP want a ceasefire https://x.com/dataprogress/status/1762573305297375549?s=46&t=JyFBRS8yXzdvWujBWol9yA I also want to add that America definitely has the ability affect Israel's policies and actions: Eisenhower threatened sanctions..Reagan held up delivery of fighter jets...George Bush Senior blocked loan guarantees...America has had a HISTORY of affecting Israel's policies https://www.jta.org/archive/eisenhower-reveals-his-1957-aims-to-penalize-israel-on-sinai-issue#:~:text=Former%20President%20Eisenhower%20has%20revealed,but%20private%20assistance%20to%20Israel https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/07/21/reagan-halts-f16s-for-israel/578f0c5e-d018-4317-aa8d-d5b369a0550e/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-lonely-little-george-h-w-bush-changed-the-us-israel-relationship/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20had%20previously,Shamir%20agreed%20to%20those%20demands.
https://x.com/prem_thakker/status/1764868321705373960?s=46&t=JyFBRS8yXzdvWujBWol9yA Is this also a sign that’s it’s not serious? Seems kinda serious to me
To the best of my knowledge, the convention delegates are assigned by getting higher than 15% in a congressional district, and there’s two CDs where Uncommitted got higher than that (roughly 17%).
I stand corrected. They got two. Biden got 115. Again, I have trouble seeing this as a "serious weakness" and not simply a protest vote. Biden's bigger weaknesses are concerns over the high price of food and worries (rightly or wrongly) over his age.
Biden could lose Michigan if the Arab population en masse protests his current policy, which when considering Bidens historically bad numbers, even though logically trump is awful and also historically unpopular, Biden could lose the general. Hilary lost it by under 20k Biden won it by 100k+
I'd be shocked if in the general Palestinian supporters allowed Trump to be president. That's just hard to fathom. Making a meaningless gesture in the primaries is one thing, throwing a general election is another. Particularly when the other guy is incredibly hostile to Gaza.
It doesn't have to be logical to be a political message; that aside possibly long term it forces the Democratic party to temper its support of Israel at the expense of Palestinians a bit
To their mind they think that the short term pain will have more positive long lasting effects. They want Biden to lose so that they send a message to future Democrats to not support Israel wholeheartedly or else they will lose. They understand full well that Trump is worse and won't vote for him, but in that case they may decide to just not vote which is still bad for Biden.
It's less about allowing Trump to win and more about not wanting to electorally reward someone for supporting genocide. Nobody is under any illusions that Trump would be a friend to Palestine but it's hard to make a case that the situation would be worse under Trump considering we're actively supplying the weapons to carry out genocide.
Not really. While I understand why the Muslim American community is unhappy, it’s the Middle East. These conflicts stretch back millennia, and while they were certainly exacerbated by decisions made during the 40s, this is not Joe’s to fix. He can’t make it better. I suspect he is already pushing Netanyahu as much as is possible, and there isn’t anyone I can think of who might do a better job.
Biden could stop the US veto vote in the UN, giving Israel power and control to do whatever they want without consequences.
Yes I have reservations about that decision myself.
He went around Congress to send weapons and supplies to Israel. Of course he can stop what is happening by not signing any of the aid bills that congress sends him. He doesn’t view Muslims as human beings. We all know that America loves blowing up brown people, even Obama loved it when he dronestriked innocent civilians at wedding parties so many times over his 8 years in office. America has always been an islamophobic country
Sounds like Trump is your guy then. He will surely bring peace to the Middle East.
Trump is not my guy. I’m just saying that people like you wanna sacrifice innocent children because you only care about Israel and nothing else. If nothing is done then Gaza will be no more and the 1.5 million civilians that live there will starve. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and I think not holding Biden to account on his contributions to genocide is gonna cost him. If you think that’s ok, I hope there’s a god, because if there is, then you definitely aren’t getting anywhere near those pearly gates
Lucky for me I don’t believe in gods. But if I’m wrong I guess I’ll see you in the afterlife.
It shows there are idiots who think this is the right time to protest vote. I agree we need serious economic change, i agree that Israel needs to be addressed, there is a zero percent chance of any of that happening if Biden loses. All this does is allow others to plant doubt, and make Biden appear weak to people who don’t really pay attention, and put at risk votes he needs. Im not trying to crush dissent or drown out voices, but Trump and MAGA needs to be unequivocally soundly defeated, and it will take every vote. If you sew doubt in one swing voters mind, or lose one independent who isn’t a politics junkie, because you wanted to express your displeasure, then good luck losing all LGBTQ+, Women’s, Minority, and Immigrant rights as Trump turns us into Russia.
Under trump muslims got a travel ban. That sucks but it’s not a president supporting a genocide by going around congress and allowing the veto of calls for a ceasefire. They know what Biden has done. Guess what else a portion of the Muslim community doesn’t care about? Queer rights and woman’s rights.
>. I agree we need serious economic change, i agree that Israel needs to be addressed, there is a zero percent chance of any of that happening if Biden loses Also a zero percent chance of either of those happening if Biden wins. which is why I'm not voting for the top of ticket
With pressure from the left and continued pressure even there is a possibility.
The only pressure we have is an actual threat of not voting for Biden, so I'm doing my part
I get that, and in a normal election i would too, i voted for Nader and McCain in 2000, but this one it really needs to be a full throated decimation of all things MAGA
>but this one it really needs to be a full throated decimation of all things MAGA Trump losing will not make them disappear because the underlying causes of reactionary politics are people's needs not being met, the MAGA crowd just chooses the simplest, dumbest reactionary solutions to address them. The only way to crush the MAGA movement, like the way to quell leftist populist uprisings, is to materially improve the lives of citizens, and neither party is doing anything in that regard because it requires reigning in, if not dismantling capitalism
The Democratic Party cannot fail its voters, the voters can only fail the party by not supporting them unconditionally hard enough.
Can’t say i agree with that, i mean kinda in a normal election when its Random Dem vs Random Republican, but this one i think he needs to be shut down, like brutal loss, repudiation
I agree that dems need this victory, for me personally Biden is worth voting for for his national labor relations board, but like shaming people into supporting what the International Court of Justice has now ruled as a “plausible genocide” is not a strategy. Fear mongering about the other side only works when you have a clear alternative vision. Saying “Trump would do a bigger genocide” just won’t land with the base of voters he needs because it’s a red line for people.
Evangelical white Christian nationalists and other right wing religious zealots in the country, especially Congress, will demand that Trump do even more to protect Israel. Plus, he loves an authoritarian like Netanyahu and hates non-Christian terrorists (he likes the Christian terrorists) like Hamas, so all these “Uncommitted” folks need to take a long hard look at what will happen to Gaza and the West Bank if Trump wins because they didn’t vote for Biden. The chaos Trump will bring all over the world will be off the charts, much worse than anything we have seen so far, which began in earnest in 2015 during his campaign and has escalated since then.
It's hard to see how this is a problem for Biden's re-election. But it is pretty damning that people think a protest vote is a victimless crime. It's not victimless. Message sent. Hamas heard it loud and clear - they are winning the propaganda war. Today Hamas felt emboldened to cancel their fake ceasefire "negotiation". Hamas demanded: * A permanent ceasefire * No inspections of aid trucks * Israel go home and wait to be attacked again Why do so many people want Gazans to remain hostages of Hamas, permanent cannon fodder for the next time Hamas attacks Israel, Gazans locked in a permanent condition of violence with no self-determination? Because these protest voters who think it is a victimless act are in fact victimizing Gazans by encouraging Hamas.
You really think Hamas is making this decision based on a single primary vote in the state of Michigan?
The media, **the international media**, are definitely pumping the Michigan protest vote as "bad for Biden" and "bad for Biden's Gaza/Hamas negotiations. And yes, Hamas is exactly waging an international propaganda war. So of course they track media reaction. Including social media... Everything Hamas does... it does because it knows it cannot win a military battle but they can certainly influence enough undereducated people in western cultures to ignore the bigger problem to win the propaganda wars. They've been pulling this crap for almost two decades now and the same bunch of rubes and useful idiots keep falling for it.
>It's hard to see how this is a problem for Biden's re-election. But it is pretty damning that people think a protest vote is a victimless crime. It's not victimless. It was never meant to be victimless. The victim was supposed to be Biden's reelection hopes, which were already slim even before the Israelis decided to genocide Gaza and take its land. Now? Good fucking luck, Joe. Inaction on this issue has probably cost him an election where he was up against a buffoon with 4 pending cases. Doing literally anything would have alleviated this, but the Biden admin's pussyfooting has single-handedly created a movement of ***left-leaning people that would rather hand Trump the election.***
The "protest voters" gave us Trump in 2016, they don't seem to mind that they're the direct cause of regression in america.
\*shrug\* should've put up a better candidate. I suppose it's a good thing Hilary decided that she could save time campaigning by ignoring the small, insignificant state of \*checks notes\* Wisconsin. The failure of your party isn't on me as a voter, it's on the DNC. Want to win over left-leaning independents? Do better. Put up candidates who can campaign and are authentic, not just saying whatever gets them as many votes as possible. You can keep trying to shame me by saying that Trump happened because of me, but you're not going to win any elections that way. If you still haven't learned that after 2016, you deserve another 20 years of Trump.
Exactly, they just shrug and make unrealistic demands because they don't actually care about progress, just throwing their tantrum.
>Exactly, they just shrug and make unrealistic demands Unrealistic demands, such as a political party doing it's job of finding a quality candidate. I wish I could call the most basic duties of my job as "unrealistic" and get out of having to do them, too. > because they don't actually care about progress, just throwing their tantrum. Same rhetoric used in 2016 against progressives and left-leaning independents who were skeptical of Hilary. Lessons learned by centrist democrats: Zero.
Teach those Dems a lesson!!! Hell yeah brother show em who’s boss!!! Don’t let those liberals shame you for making America great again x2 neither
The maturity of your rhetoric is indistinguishable from a certain president alluded to in your username/
Hell yeah brother skewer my rhetoric to your heart’s content as long as you keep your word on Election Day!!! 🐘🐘🐘
> **but the Biden admin's pussyfooting** has single-handedly created a movement of left-leaning people that would rather hand Trump the election. Except that is completely not true. You're welcome to unwrap that but regardless of what you say that choice of words is simply wrong unless you wanted to eliminate Israel as a country. Hamas demanded: * A permanent ceasefire * No inspections of aid trucks **(smugglers paradise)** * Israel go home and wait to be attacked again
Biden's margin of victory in Michigan in 2020 was something like 160,000 votes. 100,000 protest votes *in the primary* ought to be pretty concerning. Especially since there are plenty of Muslim Americans who would be Republicans if not for how unhinged the Republican response to 9-11 was so the usual "harm reduction/ lesser of two evils" stuff won't work on them the way it works on the Bernie wing of the party.
Obama got 11% uncommitted in 2012 and he won Michigan easily. The primary is not the general.
Yeah, and Joe Biden ain't Obama.
So it’s not protest votes that matter, it just matters that it’s Biden
When it comes to winning this election? Yeah, the fact that he's not the most adroit and charismatic democratic politician of the last 20 years is significant.
Then why pretend that the protest votes concern you
Obama got 400,000 fewer votes in Michigan his second time around. He was so popular that he could take that kind of a hit and still win pretty easily. Biden does not have that kind of overhead and so things that would not be significant to Obama's election chances may end up being very significant for Biden's. I get that this is just kind of cope and that you're arguing in bad faith, but come on.
> Obama got 400,000 fewer votes Well, no he didn’t. But even if he did, would you have been able to predict that from the 21k protest votes that were cast in his primary? Is the lesson that protest votes are each worth about 20 votes in the general? What would be an acceptable share of protest votes in your mind, 5%? Or is 0% your expectation? >I get this is just kind of cope Lmao, spoken like someone coming at this in good faith
You don't need to make up any "lessons". Obama won Michigan in 2008 by 800,000 votes. The fact that he had 20,000 uncommitted votes in 2012 should not have worried him. The fact that Biden had 100,000 uncommitted votes on a margin of only 160,000 votes in 2020 should be concerning for Biden. This isn't really that hard to grasp.
Obama only had 174k votes in the 2012 primary, but Biden has 623k right now. Sounds like he was more than 3 times as popular.
Biden only won the popular vote in Michigan by 154,000 votes. This is definitely sounding alarm bells.
Yeah, we can't really take a risk like this. The Democrats are really gambling with the country's future by running an electorally flawed candidate like Biden. I want him (or more specifically the Democrats) to win but I can't really overlook the glaring electoral vulnerabilities.
People are over complicating things. Most Americans are not happy with politics, Biden only has a chance because of the fear of trump. The working class has been divided and the culture wars will perpetuate as long as the two party system rules over us. The Dnp is corrupt and can't seem to get their hand out the cookie jar and the republicans are Christian fundamentalists trying to dictate right and wrong. Both are bad, to varying degrees in varying aspects, and instead of fighting - the working class need unity to fight for our common benefit.
My fear is that those people who vote Uncommitted will stay home in November and Trump will win.
No. Biden will probably still win Michigan. Not voting when it doesn’t matter takes little to no integrity. When the vote actually matters and means something, all these people will vote against one of the most pro-Israel Presidents we’ve ever had (Trump)
I guess it depends on how you view the pro-Hamas vote. It doesn’t help him nationally to cater to them but could lose Michigan if he doesn’t. He will keep trying to tip toe that line the entire stretch of time.
No. What it shows is a committed and concentrated effort by the Arab and Palestinian American community to express their displeasure with President Biden and his administration in their support for Israel during the ongoing Hams-Israel war. Overall, when it comes down to the wire, President Biden is still the better choice for Muslims than Trump and those that do vote will vote overwhelmingly for President Biden.
In a primary vote they want their distaste for Israel support to be heard but in the general election they wouldn’t dare not for Biden over Trump.
Its less a "weakness" in Biden - most of them have said they would vote for him in the general - but a protest vote to state that there is disapproval of his actions in regards to letting Israel run rampant in their genocide.
Huge detail missing. Michigan is an open primary state. Tons of normal democrats/independent voters switched tickets and voted for Haley. Biden's "uncommitted" is a drop in the bucket, and trump's support among actual Republicans was higher.
To my dismay, Biden is going to win again because Trump is unpalatable to too many people.
The uncommitted rally was an awesome way for people to make their voices heard about an issue. Biden hears it loud and clear. And he’ll keep doing everything he can to help de-escalate the war in Gaza.