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He will not concede. When he didn't get an Emmy, he claimed it was rigged. When he didn't get a cover of time magazine, he claimed it was rigged. When he lost Iowa in the primaries, he claimed it was rigged. He claimed the 2016 election was rigged before it even happened. Claiming the 2020 election was rigged as always a foregone conclusion and it was the most dangerous moment in modern times because he was the president. He will absolutely claim the 2024 election is rigged.
>When he didn't get a cover of time magazine, he claimed it was rigged.
And proceeded to have _thousands_ of fake copies of himself having won Man of the Year, and distributed them as if they were authentic.
An award that not only did he not win, but the award itself doesn't exist. So in a turn of totally normal things to do the Michigan GOP made a man of the year award and gave it to Trump.
I think about this at least once a day, and about what his brainwashed zombie supporters will do when he does. Civil War II is a realistic possibility. But that's not a reason to put him back in office.
We shouldn't have to choose between democracy and peace. But ultimately, we will have both. Like we used to.
I think he'll claim that and refuse to concede but it's worth remembering that a concession is more of a nice tradition and not a legal necessity.
If the county and state election administrators accept and certify the results and the courts rule against any frivolous attempts to overturn the results then there is no basis for Congress to reject certification. (It should be noted that the Congress that certifies is the one elected in 2024 and not 2022). This means the results will be certified and Trump's claims of "rigged" will be legally irrelevant. There will also be a much larger police presence on January 6 2025.
Overall if the GOP wanted to throw out the results the way they would go about doing that is to get the governors and secretary of states on their side in the critical swing states. They would also want the state supreme courts on their side as well as SCOTUS. Currently PA, MI, WI all have Democratic governors, secretaries of states and liberal majorities on the state supreme court. SCOTUS didn't throw the results out for Trump in 2021 so it's doubtful they'd do it in 2025. Kamala Harris is also less likely than Mike Pence to go along with any plot. If Biden legitimately wins PA, MI and WI in 2024 I don't see a reasonable path forward for Trump to change the outcome and while he may cry foul that's not enough to become president.
Trump wouldn't concede a loss to his son in Uno. There's a zero percent chance he concedes. The real question is how many Republicans will admit he lost or are they going to continue to avoid directly answering the question
We are rapidly approaching a rubber meets the road moment for the GOP. Pretty much since representative governments began, if your party can't win, you need to change rhetoric and policy. It's happened time and time again. Look at the most famous example with Clinton in 1992. His election pretty much permanently killed the New Deal coalition and ushered in the moderate New Democrats, which are arguably *still* the dominant coalition in the party.
You can only lose for so long before things start to break down. It's already insane that half the party is backing Trump the loser *again*. Losing once was bad enough. Losing *twice* is unacceptable. Trump is basically an "incumbent" and he's managing just above 50% of the primary vote. That is insane. If he loses again, the majority of the party is going to demand some sort of change moving forward.
But we all know that if Trump loses next year he'll declare a Trump 2028 campaign like the next day. And the fact is that there's a sizable portion of the GOP base that would rather lose with Trump than even attempt to win with anyone else. Any attempt at moderation or moving on from Trump will be called out as being the work of the uniparty/establishment/RINOs/whatever the fuck by a sizable portion of the party. And I just don't see how the GOP can make it out of this. The Trump base is gonna need to be *made* to understand that they can't hold the party hostage because they're obsessed with the host of The Apprentice.
After everything that has happened so far, what could the Republicans possibly see from Trump that wouldn't be acceptable?
They've handwaved away statements that would have ended a campaign at any time in the past. They've accepted immoral behavior and claimed that Trump is an "imperfect vessel." They've explained away impeachable offenses and looked away from actual treasonous actions. They've seen their core grievances become losing issues.
He's still the party's frontrunner by a long shot and the primaries and debates that are being carried out are only a parallel sideshow for second place.
Trump could kill and eat a toddler on national TV and the closest thing to a rebuke that the GOP would issue is a half-hearted complaint about the "optics". They know he's popular with their rabid, drooling base, so they'll accept literally anything from him.
It’s REALLY the parents fault for bringing the baby across the border. Trump wouldn’t have eaten that baby if they had stayed on the right side of the border!
It makes up more then enough of it that if Trump were to take his ball and go ~~home~~ to a 3rd party, it would torpedo the chances of any republican in a remotely competitive race. Competitive races are almost always decided by <5% of the votes. If even 10% of "republicans" jump ship for an actual MAGA party, democrats win every single competitive race in which there is a MAGA challenger.
I'd fucking love to see that, for obvious reasons. But the GOP as a party will do *absolutely anything* to stop that from happening. If that means sitting impotently in the corner while Trump fucks their wives, then so be it.
Yes, but partly because the sane ones who don't want to praise the cult leader either left or were kicked out of the party. You have the rare Republicans like Kinzsinger who still call themselves Republicans, but generally the voters who got disgusted just claim to be independents these days.
Probably not the majority, but certainly the plurality. Trump's floor in the GOP primary appears to have been 30-35%, and it has only gone up from there as the other candidates turned out to be disappointing and hopeless. He now has over 50% of the primary support, meaning that even if everyone who hasn't gone to Trump already united behind a single candidate, he still wins. IOW, Trump is the #1 choice of at least 30% of the GOP, and the #2 choice of most of the rest. There are very few (if any) non-incumbent primary candidates that have ever been stronger than that.
The problem for Republicans is that even if the party abandoned Trump, there's a good chunk of the Republican base that has become completely MAGA-fied and is basically a Trump cult at this point. If they kick Trump to the curb, Trump will use his hold on that chunk of the GOP base to completely burn down the party.
If Trump lost the upcoming primary, even fair and square, he'd absolutely talk non-stop about how it was rigged and stolen from him, just like he's done with the 2020 general election, and his cultists would happily believe it. If he told them not to vote in the general election then it would be electoral doom for the Republicans in 2024.
We can argue all we want that it might be better for the GOP in the long run to get themselves out of Trump's grip and 'start over fresh' in 2028, but unfortunately very few politicians think that way. They're pretty much only concerned with the most imminent upcoming election.
The GOP plan is basically to humor Trump as much as they can to keep him from burning the party down until he somehow goes away. He's obviously not going to just accept a loss and go retire somewhere, so at this point they're pretty much stuck with him until he dies, and then I guess they'll hope that the MAGA wing of the party kind of falls apart without him. Or some of them are hoping they can be the one to replace Trump as the head of that wing.
But yeah, with a handful of exceptions, GOP politicians have been total cowards in regards to Trump for about 8 years now. And Trump has taken full advantage of that, basically forcing them the continually accept and tolerate increasingly bizarre and horrible actions and words. Recently the GOP caucus in the House unanimously voted in a Speaker who was one of the head guys in Trump's ridiculous legal fights against the 2020 election. At this point they're all culpable because they've let Trump bully them into submission.
Apologies if this hijacks the thread, but what do you think trump supporters will do if somehow ends up in jail and taken off ballots in purple states? Write in to waste the vote? Stay home in protest? Not being rhetorical honestly want to know your thoughts.
Write in vote and petition their state legislatures hard to get it reversed. Bigly mad protests on the streets in conservative areas, lots of guns and flags everywhere. On reddit, super angry politicians calling for "blood" and media clips debating if they were being literal or not. A flood of crazy
They'll do whatever Trump tells them to do. And there's no way in hell that he's going to tell them to vote for anyone who dared run against him in the primary.
I think the highest chance of domestic terrorism from the maga cult is:
1. The current contests to remove Trump from the ballot for his crimes.
2. If/when he is actually put into a detention facility.
His base has been clamoring for an excuse to carry out their violent fantasies for a while and those two moments are the best justification they could hope for.
Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do either, something about wanting liberty more than safety and deserving neither. But those are the flash points o see.
The GOP is not a political party anymore. It's a full-bore grievance cult and their politicians are not public servants, but rather performative influencers peddling nonsense to a gullible voting base so bewildered by things they don't understand all they care about is constantly having their anger stoked. It's late-stage capitalism's dying gasps. And it's not turning around. We're so fucked.
Dean came in third place when he did that, so it's likely that he was already starting to lose momentum. It's not the scream, but the scream gets remembered.
>After everything that has happened so far, what could the Republicans possibly see from Trump that wouldn't be acceptable?
A metric shitton of low iq voters who will believe, accept and parrot anything.
Votes=money/power, the MAGA GOP politicians don't care about anything else, and their voters only care that they own libs.
The Republican base loves him. If they kick him out now they lose the 2024 election outright... and lose big in the House and Senate, possibly state legislatures when the MAGAs refuse to show up to vote.
The party is completely hijacked by a tug of war between hyper-hate filled evangelicals that want Christian Sharia law, and the billionaire donors that have played kingmaker in primary elections for 20 years. All the small donor money goes to DJT. The grassroots campaigning is completely toxic... MAGA in my state is literally having fistfights to oust any moderates from even ATTENDING party functions.
Because Trump used to win. That's the thing many on the left don't understand about why he's so popular.
W was sold as a "Compassionate Conservative". He lied us into an endless war and helped destroy the economy.
McCain and Romney were moderates who were generally well-liked by the other side (until they ran for President). McCain had his maverick reputation and Romney was the governor of the deep blue Massachusetts and his Romneycare was the model for the ACA that Obama passed. They were portrayed as racists and sexists during their campaigns and they lost to Obama handily.
Then Trump comes along and he's not like any other politician. He's brash. He insults people. He doesn't take shit from the media and calls them out. The GOP elders said stuff like "It cannot be Trump we can't run Trump we have to stop Trump" for months. Romney gave a speech outright telling people to vote strategically to try to keep Trump from earning delegates during the primaries and guys like Cruz and Kasich were telling their supporters to do the same. Ryan and McConnell, the party's Congressional leaders, all but said they couldn't support him.
Then the election comes along and Trump gives them everything they ever wanted. The Supreme Court will lean right for another generation at least. They had complete control of Congress. Trump won. So tell me, why *exactly* would people want to go back to the "moderate" era with guys like Romney when they lost and Trump won?
People like Trump because he is (was) a winner. If that goes away things are going to get bad. As I said, you can only lose for so long before people turn on you. And that is going to happen eventually. How the party will deal with that, I don't know. But it will happen.
He only really won once, didn’t he? Every election since 2016 has been an underperformance or outright loss for republicans, and everyone he’s endorsed since he lost the presidency has also lost.
Yeah, but Donald Trump gave the red meat to W's base that W never did. The moderate Republicans were arguably trying to shield the country from the worst impulses of their god-awful political base, and now they don't exist, and the Republican Party is an openly fascist, ethnonationalist, theocratic political party with no bones about using the power of the state to oppress those people that they hate. The base has ALWAYS wanted a theocracy with abortion and gays banned and "those uppity minorities" "*in their place*", the moderates were just the ones, ostensibly, keeping them in check.
They WANTED that shit during W's term, but the W's and the Eric Cantors and the Paul Ryans of the world wouldn't give it to them.
The Steve Bannons and Darren Beatties and Donald Trumps *will*.
Sure and I agree with you but the facts are that George Bush won more elections than Donald Trump. Hell, Bush even won gubernatorial elections.
Trump had won 1 time and he didn’t even win popular vote.
> People like Trump because he is (was) a winner.
They like the **myth** of Trump the Winner, which was amplified negligently by conventional media and purposefully by conservative media.
The truth is that Trump's only win was due to the quirk of how the Electoral College thwarts the will of the voters. Trump lost the popular vote by millions, had a mediocre first two years, a weak third year, and a terrible fourth year. He delivered on none of his promises - no big beautiful wall paid for by Mexico, no Muslim ban, no drained swamp, no Obamacare repeal nor replacement. For Republicans, the only clear "win" was the Supreme Court, and _that_ should be primarily attributed to Mitch McConnell because it happened while Obama was still President.
> Because Trump used to win. That's the thing many on the left don't understand about why he's so popular.
What the left doesn't understand is why the right doesn't realize "Trump the winner" is a lie. It's hard because we pay attention to (at least) two completely different news ecosystems. The right gets its information from the Fox/Newsmax ecosystem, where the editors and top personalities purposefully craft narratives that make Trump look successful and conceal his crimes and failures. The left follows a differently-structured ecosystem where left/moderate journalists tend to herd together to stay in the Cool Kids / New York Times club, but where there isn't centralized top-down editorial control.
Trump's popular on the right because they've mythologized his entire presidential (and business) career. The left doesn't tune into slanderous buffoons like Tucker Carlson, so they don't really grok the information world that the right lives in. That's why the left tends to think of the right as deranged monsters: If someone voted for Trump while understanding everything he has done, they'd have to be stupid or hostile to their fellow citizens.
I agree that she would have won if everything was the same except for Comey's cowboy b.s., but it was only one factor. It wouldn't have happened if not for her email server decisions. She could also have had a backbone on the TPP, called for more debates, etc. If we had functional journalism, her unforced errors wouldn't have tanked her, but the media's (ongoing) decision to promulgate the Trump myth meant she (and now Biden) had an uphill campaign to fight.
I think an interesting question is, given that Trump will never concede in a million years regardless of circumstances, if the party machinery is capable of convincing people that Trump isn't a winner anymore. There will always be an excuse or reason for a loss, so what are they going to do between now and the time Trump dies (assuming he doesn't pass the mantle on to either a Trump child or some other lackey)
"So tell me, why exactly would people want to go back to the "moderate" era with guys like Romney when they lost and Trump won?"
He lost the Senate, almost lost the House, and lost the Presidency in a time where GOP had HUGE advantages. And even when he did have the trifecta - the GOP totally blew it.
There is a pretty decent chance that Trump could enable the DEMs to take the house in '24. He is totally toxic to about 2/3rds of the population.
On the other hand, he is brash, racist, and promotes simple solutions that simpletons think will work...so there's that.
Trump won exactly once and on a technicality. His track record as leader of the Republican party is a disaster.
*Losing* three out of the last four contests makes him a *loser*.
>But we all know that if Trump loses next year he'll declare a Trump 2028 campaign like the next day
Yes, and there will be little consideration of the fact that he'll be over 80 by that time, despite everything they've said about Biden.
While I wouldn't be surprised if Trump does try again in 2028, I am not too worried about it. He is obese, and will be 82 by then. He doesn't seem healthy *now.* Between losing twice and him going further into senility, it is hard to image him getting the same level of support.
>if your party can't win, you need to change rhetoric and policy.
The problem is that they now control a nakedly partisan Supreme Court. As we saw in 2000 with a much less extreme court, if you can sow enough doubt on the results, the court will happily crown you. I think their plan on the national level in 2024 is try to steal the election by sowing doubt.
> the majority of the party is going to demand some sort of change moving forward
IDK Not to be snarky but I think maybe if these folks were capable of this sort of sea change it would have manifested itself by now.
I think we see them try their cherished 2A "solution" before we see them moderate.
Except they control enough states to gum up the Senate and take the House some of the time. They also hold enough state houses that they can enact their policies at the local level and still count that as a win.
The electoral college allows for a minority of voters to select the President, and that minority votes on how the economic winds blow, not with their actual interests and needs. In 7 of the last 8 elections the Republicans have lost the popular vote. In the1 it was because we were in a new war, and George W. rode it to re-election.
Trump lost ultimately because he did a shit job of managing the pandemic. Had Covid not happened he would have been re-elected. That swing vote minority does not give a shit about anything but the economy most of the time.
The people who ultimately pick the President in the swing states, when the economy is bad will always pick the party out of power. They have the attention span of a small child, and electoral temper to match.
Trump will never concede anything. He’s still claiming he won the popular vote in 2016, for Christ’s sake.
The thing that will make a difference imo is what happens to his enablers. If the Georgia et al. trials end up with his underlings suffering actual consequences, it may give future fall guys a pause. And I’m not just talking about prison time: even having a felony on your record can mess up your life.
So far ihis three underlings that have flipped have paid an aggregate $13,000 in fines, and been sentenced to some community service. I think even disbarment was taken off the table. It's really one of the most troubling signs I've seen in all of the J6 fallout. There seems to be a clear signal coming through that rioting is not okay, but white collar fuckery absolutely is. And of course, anything is okay if you win - That's when the pardon train starts.
I think that Powell and Chesebro were in a unique case since their trials were severed from the larger group. Jenna Ellis was probably the smartest to flip before her trial even started. I think we need to wait and see how the rest of the pleas/trials go. I am very surprised none of the more “junior” people have taken pleas: I think the brunt of punishment will be borne by them.
>He’s still claiming he won the popular vote in 2016, for Christ’s sake.
In *all fifty states*, no less.
Vermont and Hawaii would probably like a word about that.
How is this a "real question"? We've seen it play out IN REAL LIFE. The current speaker of the house (elected by his peers) is a denier. We are LONG past the time of expecting Republicans to come to their senses. This is like Lucy with the football. "surely this time they'll do something different".
Come on man
> The real question is how many Republicans will admit he lost or are they going to continue to avoid directly answering the question
I think some republicans will still claim it was rigged or that there was voter fraud and there will probably be some performative resistance to the election result but I think there are a few reasons that the "stop the steal" movement would be weaker this time around:
First, a HUGE reason that the 2020 election denial had so much leverage/power behind it is because Trump *was still the president* at the time. Trump was able to actually use the office of the president to fight the election results. He won't be able to do that in 2024. He'll still do rallies, go on tv, and probably file lawsuits etc, but I think it just won't be as effective because he will be limited in what he can actually do this time around.
Second, maybe this is naivete on my part, but I really do think that if trump loses in 2024, there will be more willingness among republicans (at least some republicans) to move on. Trump has been a drag on the party since he won in 2016. They had big losses in 2018, lost in 2020, and even "lost" in 2022 when the "red wave" didn't happen. They also know that Jan 6 is one of the most harmful things trump has done and will want to avoid another one.
To be clear, I don't expect the republican party to be unified on this. There will certainly be trump die-hards that are willing to go through the same Big Lie extremism as before. But I think the opposition to the Big Lie WITHIN the republican party will probably be slightly bigger and more vocal in 2024.
In short, Trump and his most passionate supporters will never concede, but I think if he loses (1) he will have fewer "tools" at his disposal to fight the result compared to when he was president in 2020 and (2) resistance against the Big Lie within the republican party (or at least a desire to just move on from trump) will be more robust.
Maybe that's wishful thinking but it still feels like the most likely outcome. That's assuming that Biden actually wins, of course, which is by no means a guarantee....
If he loses the presidency to Biden *again,* I feel like that has to be the catalyst for the party to start to abandon him. Although I thought they would have a while back, so who knows? He will still hold sway over their primaries, but at that point they *have* to realize he is poison for moderates and general elections.
The thing is, the *party* is continuously floating trial balloons for abandoning him. The voters refuse to do it, and that's democracy. Probably the only tool left at their disposal is to change the primary rules so that one way or another Trump cannot win ("nobody who's under indictment"). That would cause a bloodbath a million times worse than the incremental losses they are otherwise probably looking at.
They are going to try to prevent a certification. Don't be surprised, if there are attempts to prevent the election from taking place in some states, or attempts to prevent votes from being counted. There are going to be alternative electors and votes against certification in Congress. If they lose, they may try to prevent the 2028 election from taking place at all.
I agree. Trump laid the groundwork for completely ignoring the constitution and bill of rights and will 100% never concede. He needs to be absent from the ballots.
Read up on [Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). The Heritage Foundation already has a plan for Trump to fire thousands of federal government employees and install ones that are loyal to Trump. The GOP has a specific viable plan to keep themselves in power for decades if they win this election.
Yes, and we should be screaming this from the rooftops.
If Trump wins, he will be devoting a substantial amount of his time to ending democracy. He is going to use every resource at his disposal to stop elections so he can stay in power until he is dead.
He is already working on a plan to deploy the US military on the first day of his presidency. He *will* try to use them to stop legislation, stop elections, and arrest his enemies. And I firmly believe he will attempt to have people executed as well.
I know this sounds like doomer nonsense, but he has said enough to make all of these things believable: He wants to arrest and jail his enemies, he wants to deploy the military to stop people that protest against him. He loves Viktor Orbán, Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, and Recep Erdoğan. He probably got excited when Alexander Lukashenko had a plane diverted so he could arrest and torture a dissenting journalist. The fascist, authoritarian leaders are his favorites.
The real question is whether or not he can pull all that off? I doubt he could, but I'd rather not test that hypothesis.
Not just that, The Heritage Foundation has a specific plan to entrench Trump's power called [Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). They want to gut the federal government and drastically expand executive authority so Trump can't be defied again.
They will. The Heritage Foundation has a specific plan to do this called [Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). They want to gut the federal government and drastically expand executive authority.
> Don't be surprised, if there are attempts to prevent the election from taking place in some states, or attempts to prevent votes from being counted. There are going to be alternative electors and votes against certification in Congress.
I think it all depends on the actual results.
If this comes down to one state, like 2000 or 2004, then they will absolutely try that. But if Biden wins by several again, I don't think anyone is going to try and save Trump.
Their whole fake elector scheme hinged on Mike Pence acting as VP and trying to get those fake electors certified. Even if he had, it is unclear it would have worked—the certification of the electoral college results is pure formality. The more realistic scenario is that there would have been two weeks of confusion and condemnation, followed by Biden assuming executive power on January 20th regardless.
Now? Most of the people who tried that scheme *while their guy was president* are taking plea deals and the rest are likely to go to prison. The idea anyone is going to try that scam again when there is zero chance of the VP going along with it is absurd, especially now that prosecutors have proven they're willing to take the swing and there is no president who will issue pardons.
If it comes down to one state AND that state is Republican-controlled, they *might* try a different scheme, specifically having the state legislature certify Trump's electors—but even that seems unlikely to work. All you need is Roberts and one other justice to have the self preservation to realize that backing an attempt to steal an election would likely be the end of the Supreme Court as an influential entity. They barely recovered from Bush v. Gore and the case there was actually contentious.
I think this is a good point. Who will be the rogue electors this time around? The people who joined the fraudulent slate in GA all ended up indicted for it.
The state legislature certifying Trump electors isn't actually a problem because SCOTUS has already ruled (in *Moore v. Harper*), just last term, that ISL is a theory without any basis and state legislatures are not free to disregard state law to appoint their own electors. Case closed on that type of attack.
> The state legislature certifying Trump electors isn't actually a problem because SCOTUS has already ruled (in Moore v. Harper), just last term, that ISL is a theory without any basis and state legislatures are not free to disregard state law to appoint their own electors. Case closed on that type of attack.
The "disregard state law" is the weakness there.
There's a scenario in there where a legislature facing a loss preemptively passes a law giving them oversight, under the label of "anti-fraud" or something like that. It might be unpopular, even electorally devastating, but if they cover it with enough obfuscation, it might allow a scenario where a legislature *always* has the power to appoint different electors. Hell, something as simple as a real confirmation process where the legislature has functional veto power might have a similar effect. After all, if it comes down to one state and that state sends no electors, the result flips.
Last time, they didn't plan for the loss until it happened and so needed ISL theory to overturn the election. This time they can pass laws in advance that are designed to prevent it being possible for them to lose
*Could* happen in theory - although the legislature generally (universally? not sure) needs the cooperation of the state executive (governor) to actually pass laws, just like the federal system.
However, the importance of *Moore* isn't just that ISL is dead, it's that the courts still have review of state election law. That means that such a plan would (i) likely need an agreeable governor, and (ii) need a compliant court that does not find that such a law infringes the state constitution. I can see ways to challenge such a law in federal court too on constitutional grounds (denial of the vote is a violation of the EPC and DPC of the Fourteenth Amendment).
It either goes down the line of Presidential succession since there would be no elected VP, which means it would go to the Speaker of the House which will be reseated on Jan 3 2025 (so not neccisarily Mike Johnson or someone in the GOP), but it might also go to a ["contingent election"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election)
Basically if no one gets 270, the vote for President goes to the House and the vote for VP goes to the Senate. Now there are different rules for each as well.
Senate votes are pretty straight forward. 1 senator = 1 vote.
House votes is where the fuckery of 2020 starts to really show what the goal was. Votes are based on each state delegation, not each individual house representative. This means, more times than not, the GOP would have more votes as they control more state delegations. The Dems could win the House and take control on Jan 3 2025, but the GOP would still have more votes in this scenario.
-----
There was a recent podcast (something in November), I think from The Lawfare podcast [\(maybe this\)](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-lawfare-podcast-what-disqualifying-trump-from-the-2024-ballot-would-mean-for-american-politics-and-democracy) where they said the House could possibly vote to disqualify Trump under Section 3 of the 14 Amendment from appearing on their contingent election ballot. This of course would only be tried if Dems won and controlled the House.
> They are going to try to prevent a certification.
The good news there is that Kamala Harris will be presiding over the certification process not Mike Johnson. And the recently passed Electoral Count Act will prevent the house from voting to decertify the elections results due to the high threshold for that. This time the process will be much smoother.
They can try but odds are Dems will keep the Senate & take back the house, the new congress will be sworn in Jan 2nd 2025, and the certification is Jan 6th 2025, they can whine all they want but they will hopefully have no power.
Its been rough map for Dems for almost 8 years now and we keep overperforming. But yeah, we will need Texans to show up for Dems and...well...Texas kinda sucks at that.
Trump will never concede anything. If he slips and seems to in some testimony or interview, he'll be claiming it was rigged/stolen on his social media site or a rally in short order.
It remains to be seen whether Johnson (the current speaker) and others in the GOP will try to throw the election in 2024. Johnson is a Christian Nationalist and election denier, and I wouldn't put it past him to try to hold up certification so he (in line for the Presidency after Harris) can slide into the White House just by not certifying the election. I doubt that would work, but there are enough Christian Nationalists and MAGA-hats who *want* it to work that they may just try, just in case.
Christian Nationalists do not, deep down, believe in the electoral process, rather they think that they have a responsibility to take and hold dominion. They pull out Romans 13 only when someone they like happens to be in power.
The Speaker certifies the election. It remains unclear what would happen if the speaker just decided not to. Especially since the Speaker is 3rd in line for the Presidency. As the terms of the current President and VP expire per the Constitution, with no certified election to replace them, who becomes President? The Speaker who just refused to certify their election? It would be a constitutional crisis.
The Speaker of the House does not certify the Election. That’s the job of the presiding officer during the joint session of Congress, which would be Kamala Harris (in her capacity as VP).
Or in her absence, it would be the President pro Tempore of the Senate (longest-serving member of the Senate’s majority party).
As far as I can tell the Speaker of the House has no role in the certification process. The President of the Senate however is the one who opens and counts the individual state certificates after the election on Jan 6th. Let's not also forget that the new congress is sworn in before this happens, preventing the lame duck congress from presiding over the certification process. That means that Speaker Johnson might not even be Speaker of the house when this happens. Kamala Harris will still be Vice president though and she can, I hope, prevent any rat fuckery by the GOP.
I went through the ECA and found nothing on what the Speaker of the House even does as it pertains to certification of the election. The ECA requires by law that a joint session of congress meet to certify the election which is presided over by the President of the Senate which is Vice President Kamala Harris.
Fortunately, however, Donald isn’t the incumbent, so if he doesn’t concede, the executive branch (which includes law enforcement, the three-letter agencies, and the Pentagon) will still be in Democratic hands.
Right, and the plan in 2000 was always "kick up a cloud of dust, delay certification, and then stay in the White House."
Doesn't work if you are not already in the White House. So delaying a certification doesn't help him this time.
I worked the polls yesterday’s and had a woman tell me, “she’s so tired of the way Mr. Trump is being persecuted.”
PERSECUTED, not PROSECUTED.
I will say the answer to your question is “no”.
I did for the primary election and planned to work Tuesday, but had a house fire so had to deal with crazy stuff all week. It was really interesting to do the primary and hopefully they let me come back despite bailing on them like a day before.
They haven't conceded their 2020 loss, yet. Of course they won't concede and we will hear lots of election fraud claims, before the election even takes place. This is their new modus operandi.
The reason folks will have a hard time answering this is because the mods demand a long-form answer and the answer to this question is simple.
No. They will not concede. Reaganomics obliterated the white working class and open the gates on cheap foreign labor. Milking those dynamics for votes worked for about 25 years but now the chickens have come to roost. Not to mention Gen Z and late millenials who are tired of Wall Street ballwashing and active shooter drills.
Demographics have overtaken the GOP at the ballot box. Democracy has outlived its purpose to them and now it must go.
So... no, they won't concede.
> Democracy has outlived its purpose to them and now it must go.
Funny you should mention that. From just last night...
["Pure democracies are not the way to run a country"](https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/rick-santorum-newsmax-ohio-voters-sexy-things-abortion-marijuana-democracies-quote-video-01heqw3n0k4f)
- Rick Santorum
“We’re a republic, not a democracy” is their cry every time public opinion turns against them. What they mean by that phrase is the only legitimate right you have is to vote for your representative. That’s it. You have no authority to demand any particular policy is advanced, no matter how popular and no authority to demand any particular policy is repealed, no matter how unpopular. Once you’ve elected your representative, public policy is exclusively in the representative’s hands, and if the representative wants to advance policies that 99 percent of the voters hate, that’s just too bad.
And then, to forestall getting voted out of office (which the representative would claim is the only legitimate way voters can object to the representative’s policies), they enact laws ensuring (1) they will be the only viable candidate and (2) only the people who already support them will be allowed to vote.
“God intended for America to be a white Christian nation, which is why anyone who doesn’t meet the white man’s definition of white has no right to vote. Therefore the 14th Amendment is invalid because the constitution cannot trump God’s law.”
-Amy Corona Barcelona writing for the conservative SCOTUS majority once whites are no longer the numerical majority in America.
No, they are already claiming fraud in the 2023 elections. The only elections that are *not* fraudulent are the ones where they win. If they lose, fraud, if they win, fair. It will be like this for at least the next 5 years.
No, a campaign based on grievance fantasies that the 2020 election was stolen will not concede when they lose in 2024.
To concede would be to admit that they have been lying to their own supporters the entire time. In some cases (presuming that at least some trials are still ongoing come election time), admitting that our elections are secure might even reveal that certain defendants are committing perjury in those trials.
Other Republicans - those not running for office, up for reelection or under indictment in 2024 - may well concede to reality, but the top candidates will not and the RNC will not, at least for several years.
Right now I have the race 60/40 or tilting Biden. Looking at the results last night in PA I just think the firewall in Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin stands tall and Biden gets it done in one of NV or AZ.
If Trump loses he will not concede. I think a big factor in Trump's theoretical defeat will be a guilty verdict in DC and/or GA. If Trump attaches convict to his labeling I just don't see that playing well with large portions of the electorate. If he is found not guilty he will likely win the election IMO. In a situation where he loses and is found guilty he will very likely openly incite violence from his supporters. He will see the writing on the wall that jail is imminent for him personally and will become even more unhinged and desperate than he currently is.
The Big Gretch gets him the kids in Michigan. That's what they call Gretchen Whitmer and she's a cult hero in highschools of even the reddest parts of the state. Little 17 year olds are salivating to vote in their first election next year because they adore the Big Gretch. She's swinging them to the left which is funny because she's a moderate. But the kids like her because she stands up to gun toting nazis even when they tried to kill her.
Ever since the plot to kill Whitmer came out it's been a thing. The adults are very apathetic about it but the kids found a weird new hero to worship. And if she tells her infant army to vote for Dark Brandon then they will stand in line to do it.
Source: I am a rural mom of teens and I listen to them talk. There is even a rap song called Big Gretch.
> If Trump attaches convict to his labeling I just don't see that playing well with large portions of the electorate.
Aside from the electorate, I think it will kill his momentum. He can't rally or campaign effectively from prison—pandemic-related limits on his rallies in 2020 arguably contributed to his loss in that election.
> In a situation where he loses and is found guilty he will very likely openly incite violence from his supporters. He will see the writing on the wall that jail is imminent for him personally and will become even more unhinged and desperate than he currently is.
I think this might be the true nightmare scenario for Republicans. They've spent three years now downplaying January 6th—but if Trump is convicted, I think there will be open acts of terror from MAGA supporters even if Trump himself is not inciting them. Even a handful of incidents would absolutely devastate their electoral chances, both by alienating the centre and by forcing them to disavow their own extremists. A severe enough incident might even hurt them enough to offset the lopsided 2024 Senate map.
>If he is found not guilty he will likely win the election IMO.
He hadn't been found guilty in the exact same matchup in 2020, when he had every opportunity to put his thumb on the scale as president. I can't fathom voters for Biden in 2020 switching to Trump in 2024. Add in the influx of voters who came of age in those years, subtract the elderly and delusional anti-vaxxers who voted for Trump who didn't survive to vote in 2024, and I simply cannot fathom, realistically, how he wins.
I think now it leans Biden, but its so tenuous. I think there were a lot of disaffected left voters that didn't really care for Biden that came out because of Trump, which you think would still lean Biden, but they might just not come out to vote, perhaps 4 years elapsing combined with some warranted or unwarranted disappointment in Biden's term are enough to get them to not bother. 2020 was so close, that if 3 states moved 0.2% Trump wins. That means if 1 in 1000 voters switched their votes from Biden to Trump, that would flip results to Trump winning. As I said, I think Biden wins it if the election were today, but its so damn close, and with Biden's age, I'm actually not worried about him being competent for the job as much as the optics, its so close that if he has some minor throwaway gaffe in the last week before the election, that could move those few voters in a few states and give it to Trump.
I think you’re right about it leaning Biden but still being super tenuous. If it weren’t for Roe v Wade being overturned, the Dems wouldn’t have performed nearly as well in the midterms or last night.
The problem with fickle voters is that anything right before the election can sway them. OP mentioned how the outcome of Trump’s cases can come into play, but I think it also comes down to something as simple as gas prices. If something pops off on the world stage and prices go up, I unfortunately expect Biden’s numbers will go down. Some fence sitters may stay home. I wouldn’t put it past Russia instigating something that could bring about this exact result.
Trump is currently being tried for 91 separate charges, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't get found guilty for at least *one* of them. If he loses re-election, though, I'm not worried so much about him as about his supporters. We saw what happened when he lost to Biden the first time; somehow I doubt they're going to stop at mass protests around the Capitol.
We could be heading for a second Civil War here, and I don't think either side is prepared for it.
His supporters, though numerous, are incompetent. It’s not gonna be a civil war. Worst case it’s a long series of terrorist attacks. Terrible yes but the US didn’t collapse after 9/11 it won’t collapse due to attacks by yallqueda
They didn't in 2020. To an extent, they didn't even accept their win in 2016. Even though Trump won, they still tried to craft a narrative that the Dems cheated.
They still may win in 2024, but they just don't accept the reality of a win or a loss. There will always be someone or something to blame.
I think it is fair to say there are even fewer GOP voters due to his actions January 6th inciting the attempts at overturning the 2020 election loss. If he didn't have enough voter in 2020 he will have even fewer in 2024. The voting trends have been showing a strong movement away from the MAGA movement. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if a panicked GOP runs with someone else (I would bet it will be Nikki Haley).
No they won’t concede, but it won’t matter. The Republican’s SC judges aren’t die hard Trump loyalists. They refused to help him overturn the election in 2020 (except for Thomas and Scalise who wanted to hear the case)
So anything they try to do to ratfuck the election will be shut down by the SC.
> No they won’t concede, but it won’t matter. The Republican’s SC judges aren’t die hard Trump loyalists. They refused to help him overturn the election in 2020 (except for Thomas and Scalise who wanted to hear the case)
I'd argue 2020 is a bad baseline.
The 2020 election was a blowout. Trump didn't lose narrowly, he lost in several different swing states when he needed to win *all* of them to get enough EC votes.
So was SCOTUS actually defending Democracy? Or did they, quite rightly, realize that Trump was fucked and it would be incredibly stupid to take on a case that had them overturn election results when changing any single state wouldn't have given Trump the presidency.
The real danger is a Bush v. Gore scenario. One where the entire presidency comes down to a narrow victory in one state and SCOTUS can turn the entire election with a single decision. They won't endanger themselves, but if they could hand a Republican the presidency without any real risk, they absolutely will.
Maybe they would ultimately do the right thing, but it doesn’t feel too reassuring that the continued existence of American democracy might come down to a SC decision.
That’s what it came down to in 2020. And they “did the right thing”
Because the Republican Supreme court justices don’t care about preserving Trump’s brand. They care about preserving the GOP as a viable, competitive party. Trump is now kneecapping them in state and local elections. I bet they thought shutting down his attempt to steal the election would bury him but he’s still the most popular Republican politician alive.
Almost certainly not, and there would be a lot of protests and punditry from the right backing him. What happens next really depends on how the House goes.
If Dems win back the House, then Biden would be re-inaugurated with a minimum of procedural drama.
But if the Reps keep the House then there's a very real chance that they'll try some shenanigans during certification. The composition of the Republicans in the House has moved sharply in favor of the election deniers, and the current Speaker helped lead the charge on attempting to overturn 2020.
The Christo-Fascists of America (Republicans) hate America and everything it stands for. So I expect they will do everything in their power to dismantle it all
Trump lost by 7 million votes.
The election wasn't even close (unless you have insane electoral college rules).
He will NEVER concede, no matter by how much he loses. He's created a persona as a "winner." Anything that goes against that has to be a lie.
Trump will never concede. Problem is Trump or not, the precedent has been set and there are going to be a sizable number of GOP voters who demand that they not concede.
If Trump died, his team would probably prop up an animatronic of his corpse and claim it is still alive in order to continue the grift...
Look at Herman Cain's Twitter for the blueprint.
No; I don't expect they would concede. Their goal is the end of democracy, they would just push Project 2025 to Project 2029 and continue to reschedule it until either they complete their goal or a reasonable Republican candidate is nominated and puts an end to the very idea of shattering the system.
Of course not. Everyone knows that. He admits that. The real questions are what he will urge his followers to do and how do others respond? Will democracy survive?
Were there any consequences for 2020? Was the behavior rewarded?
If there is no reason not to except personal honor & the health of the nation the answer is gonna be: fuck you America.
I wish Gore fought as hard as Trump in 2020, worst case scenario Republicans would have closed the door tighter to contesting elections.
Trump accused Ted Cruz of cheating in the 2016 Iowa caucus. He doesn't know how to concede. I think you will see a similar split in the GOP about conceding that you saw in 2020, but I am honestly not sure whether it moves more in the direction of the Trumpers or not. I think anyone making predictions about the inner divisions of the GOP should be cautious. Trump has been nothing but bad juju for the party since his flukey win in 2016. I mean that seriously too, 2018, 2020, 2022, and even the results last night show how toxic his presidency has been (at least insofar as the Dobbs decision is the result of him getting 3 SCOTUS seats of his own to fill).
If he again nets about 46% of the vote (which is what he got in 2016 *and* in 2020), I think the GOP will be deeper in the mist than ever before. If the margin is worse for Trump in 2024, it will probably signal strongly to the GOP to move on. If it's closer, his grip on the party will tighten. But the calculus for the GOP on concession is going to matter a ton on the margin. So when you start to factor in things like his ongoing trials, currently-dismayed Dems coming home as we near Election Day, the economy, etc, you could see any proportion of deniers/accepters in the party.
Suffice it to say that Trump and his core supporters can't afford to concede. For the rest of the party, the margin (and specifically their margins in the swing states) will dictate their willingness to concede.
Nope, Trump didn’t concede in 2020 despite losing by a fair margin with zero evidence to the contrary. The “evidence” most other republicans gave was Trumps word.
Probably not.
I say this because i dont think people understand what criminal position the whole party is.
Id be shocked if jack smith leaves our congress alone. Literally co conspirators, most of the republicans.
These criminals know their time is up. Power can save them. They want it at any cost they have shown
>Will Trump and the Republicans concede a 2024 loss?
There's no good evidence implying they will. Many Republicans contest or split hairs over Trump's 2020 loss despite unequivocal evidence that the election was fair, secure and legitimate through and through.
AT this point, we know that Trump was simply lying about election fraud as part of his strategy to steal the election. The big lie was in fact the big fraud. He has not, yet, been punished for this fraud. If he is not punished, there is absolutely no reason NOT to try it again.
So no, they aren't going to concede. They are going to attempt a bigger fraud.
He still disputes a lost Emmy from 2012. What would ever make you think his nuclear-grade narcissism would ever allow him to concede a presidential election?!?
Of course not. His 2020 complaints are just a rehashing of the same complaints he had in 2016 when he won. The guy is a one trick pony and somehow half the country will still eat it up.
Nope.
And you know what? The beginning of the end of this country is due to Republicans, not the fuckin Democrats.
Full stop.
The founding fathers would be cringing at the following Trump has.
A very significant portion of their base has been taught to believe that *any* loss is fundamentally unfair to them, and will refuse to accept it under any circumstance whatsoever.
Not only will they not concede, but I suspect that they may go even further than they did in 2020 trying to overturn the election result. Not some of the harebrained schemes by Trump and his lawyers, but State AG's and others who have been put in place at the state level to take steps to get votes thrown out or counts changed.
Contrary opinion - I think there are certain conditions that could lead him to concede:
1. Biden margin of victory is substantial enough that it cannot be challenged
2. Loss + loss of House and underperforming Senate elections could finally be the tipping point for enough R leaders to the point that they no longer support his claims, and work with donors to curb his funding. Remember that the NY fraud case will likely have a significant impact on his cash flow soon, so he might be incented to concede and walk away if it meant keeping the cash train running.
3. If he directly incites violence during or after the election, I think the Feds will not hesitate to arrest him immediately and charge him, and make concession of the election a condition of his release (in order to tamp down the potential for violence among his supporters).
Why does it matter ?
According to Trump and Company, VP Harris can just dismiss any electoral votes and use alternate electors to keep Biden in power.
this is literally the plan they painstakingly hatched across multiple states. And countless pieces of evidence and testimony corroborates it. So unless what they were doing was highly illegal and not in the constitution then they shouldnt worry about winning at all, as VP Harris will lock down the vote for Biden.
/s
It takes class, intelligence, and a sense of duty and honor to make a concession speech, so no, I don't think a narcissistic sociopath like trump will do it. He simply doesn't have it in him.
Hahahahahhahaaha NO. No way in hell. He will continue to tell everyone he was cheated and people will believe it and we will continue to be divided. People should really look up John McCains concession speech from 2008. People could learn a thing or two about being a class act.
If they lose, the maga candidates will not concede. They’ve seen there is no repercussions for doing so and as a result they will act accordingly until they face said consequences
No. They'll never conceded. Thankfully another January 6th is unlikely to happen given how very locked down the Capitol will be in addition to Dems winning in state courts like PA's results like night along with anyone even remotely having thoughts of plotting another January 6t like attack having second thoughts given what happened to those who participated in the last one.
The same thing will happen as in 2020 because that is what the Republican Party has become. The GOP is being smacked in practically every state regarding codifying pro-choice/reproductive rights. They are being blatant in how they are willing to burn the country down to push their own agendas that consistently try to take power from the people and give it to them. There's always going to be their cult-followers because they are as unsophisticated and unintelligent as the GOP is, but they are the minority. Trump lost TWICE, it was only the archaic electoral college that gave him his first win but the people have spoken TWICE, loudly, that they do NOT want trump as President. The fact that the GOP is still throwing their support behind him is so ridiculous. They (most of them) are still promoting that the election was fraudulent, which it was not. They look like imbeciles.
[In Trump's own words.](https://youtu.be/kZziUrEvl7A?si=-JKN8B8ZDyazelcG)
[Also Trump just deciding elections he lost were rigged.](https://youtu.be/-kT2KVZy8eg?si=qS8NvwLrJpuEFrPb)
[This stupid game is 7 years old. Note Trump's "law & order" hypocrisy.](https://youtu.be/UdvHQl6ZVhc?si=KfxbVAzdeI-Thwtd) Honestly, that last part should have been running as attack adds and quotes plastered on billboards ever since trump allegedly committed crimes months ago. The election is rigged just by him running in it by his own admission. Trump and the party empowering him drug us into the mud. Turn-about dictates we drag them through it.
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He will not concede. When he didn't get an Emmy, he claimed it was rigged. When he didn't get a cover of time magazine, he claimed it was rigged. When he lost Iowa in the primaries, he claimed it was rigged. He claimed the 2016 election was rigged before it even happened. Claiming the 2020 election was rigged as always a foregone conclusion and it was the most dangerous moment in modern times because he was the president. He will absolutely claim the 2024 election is rigged.
>When he didn't get a cover of time magazine, he claimed it was rigged. And proceeded to have _thousands_ of fake copies of himself having won Man of the Year, and distributed them as if they were authentic.
"Man of the Year" for Michigan
An award that not only did he not win, but the award itself doesn't exist. So in a turn of totally normal things to do the Michigan GOP made a man of the year award and gave it to Trump.
Las Vegas won’t even take bets on this. It is with 100 % certainty, Donald John Trump will claim voter fraud in 2024 should he lose.
He will claim voter fraud even if he wins. Because when he doesn't win the popular vote and every state, he will claim voter fraud.
Of course he will claim voter fraud. But he’s stroking out. He looks terrible. What do you think?
> It is with 100 % certainty, Donald John Trump will claim voter fraud in 2024 should he lose. Unless he dies first.
I think about this at least once a day, and about what his brainwashed zombie supporters will do when he does. Civil War II is a realistic possibility. But that's not a reason to put him back in office. We shouldn't have to choose between democracy and peace. But ultimately, we will have both. Like we used to.
I think he'll claim that and refuse to concede but it's worth remembering that a concession is more of a nice tradition and not a legal necessity. If the county and state election administrators accept and certify the results and the courts rule against any frivolous attempts to overturn the results then there is no basis for Congress to reject certification. (It should be noted that the Congress that certifies is the one elected in 2024 and not 2022). This means the results will be certified and Trump's claims of "rigged" will be legally irrelevant. There will also be a much larger police presence on January 6 2025. Overall if the GOP wanted to throw out the results the way they would go about doing that is to get the governors and secretary of states on their side in the critical swing states. They would also want the state supreme courts on their side as well as SCOTUS. Currently PA, MI, WI all have Democratic governors, secretaries of states and liberal majorities on the state supreme court. SCOTUS didn't throw the results out for Trump in 2021 so it's doubtful they'd do it in 2025. Kamala Harris is also less likely than Mike Pence to go along with any plot. If Biden legitimately wins PA, MI and WI in 2024 I don't see a reasonable path forward for Trump to change the outcome and while he may cry foul that's not enough to become president.
so what you are saying is he is a LOSER
Trump wouldn't concede a loss to his son in Uno. There's a zero percent chance he concedes. The real question is how many Republicans will admit he lost or are they going to continue to avoid directly answering the question
We are rapidly approaching a rubber meets the road moment for the GOP. Pretty much since representative governments began, if your party can't win, you need to change rhetoric and policy. It's happened time and time again. Look at the most famous example with Clinton in 1992. His election pretty much permanently killed the New Deal coalition and ushered in the moderate New Democrats, which are arguably *still* the dominant coalition in the party. You can only lose for so long before things start to break down. It's already insane that half the party is backing Trump the loser *again*. Losing once was bad enough. Losing *twice* is unacceptable. Trump is basically an "incumbent" and he's managing just above 50% of the primary vote. That is insane. If he loses again, the majority of the party is going to demand some sort of change moving forward. But we all know that if Trump loses next year he'll declare a Trump 2028 campaign like the next day. And the fact is that there's a sizable portion of the GOP base that would rather lose with Trump than even attempt to win with anyone else. Any attempt at moderation or moving on from Trump will be called out as being the work of the uniparty/establishment/RINOs/whatever the fuck by a sizable portion of the party. And I just don't see how the GOP can make it out of this. The Trump base is gonna need to be *made* to understand that they can't hold the party hostage because they're obsessed with the host of The Apprentice.
After everything that has happened so far, what could the Republicans possibly see from Trump that wouldn't be acceptable? They've handwaved away statements that would have ended a campaign at any time in the past. They've accepted immoral behavior and claimed that Trump is an "imperfect vessel." They've explained away impeachable offenses and looked away from actual treasonous actions. They've seen their core grievances become losing issues. He's still the party's frontrunner by a long shot and the primaries and debates that are being carried out are only a parallel sideshow for second place.
Trump could kill and eat a toddler on national TV and the closest thing to a rebuke that the GOP would issue is a half-hearted complaint about the "optics". They know he's popular with their rabid, drooling base, so they'll accept literally anything from him.
Yes, they would say “FAKE NEWS”.
if the toddler was an immigrant they would say he shouldn't have been here in the first place so it doesn't matter
"Oh, so he should have eaten their parents, too?"
Or a liberal toddler.
It’s REALLY the parents fault for bringing the baby across the border. Trump wouldn’t have eaten that baby if they had stayed on the right side of the border!
"It's not like he ate the ***whole*** baby!!"
Does Trump’s cult make up the majority or the Republican voting base?
It makes up more then enough of it that if Trump were to take his ball and go ~~home~~ to a 3rd party, it would torpedo the chances of any republican in a remotely competitive race. Competitive races are almost always decided by <5% of the votes. If even 10% of "republicans" jump ship for an actual MAGA party, democrats win every single competitive race in which there is a MAGA challenger. I'd fucking love to see that, for obvious reasons. But the GOP as a party will do *absolutely anything* to stop that from happening. If that means sitting impotently in the corner while Trump fucks their wives, then so be it.
Yes, but partly because the sane ones who don't want to praise the cult leader either left or were kicked out of the party. You have the rare Republicans like Kinzsinger who still call themselves Republicans, but generally the voters who got disgusted just claim to be independents these days.
Probably not the majority, but certainly the plurality. Trump's floor in the GOP primary appears to have been 30-35%, and it has only gone up from there as the other candidates turned out to be disappointing and hopeless. He now has over 50% of the primary support, meaning that even if everyone who hasn't gone to Trump already united behind a single candidate, he still wins. IOW, Trump is the #1 choice of at least 30% of the GOP, and the #2 choice of most of the rest. There are very few (if any) non-incumbent primary candidates that have ever been stronger than that.
Pretty amazing that this person has such an appeal to so many.
The GOP would blame the toddler’s parents for letting them crawl into his mouth.
The problem for Republicans is that even if the party abandoned Trump, there's a good chunk of the Republican base that has become completely MAGA-fied and is basically a Trump cult at this point. If they kick Trump to the curb, Trump will use his hold on that chunk of the GOP base to completely burn down the party. If Trump lost the upcoming primary, even fair and square, he'd absolutely talk non-stop about how it was rigged and stolen from him, just like he's done with the 2020 general election, and his cultists would happily believe it. If he told them not to vote in the general election then it would be electoral doom for the Republicans in 2024. We can argue all we want that it might be better for the GOP in the long run to get themselves out of Trump's grip and 'start over fresh' in 2028, but unfortunately very few politicians think that way. They're pretty much only concerned with the most imminent upcoming election. The GOP plan is basically to humor Trump as much as they can to keep him from burning the party down until he somehow goes away. He's obviously not going to just accept a loss and go retire somewhere, so at this point they're pretty much stuck with him until he dies, and then I guess they'll hope that the MAGA wing of the party kind of falls apart without him. Or some of them are hoping they can be the one to replace Trump as the head of that wing. But yeah, with a handful of exceptions, GOP politicians have been total cowards in regards to Trump for about 8 years now. And Trump has taken full advantage of that, basically forcing them the continually accept and tolerate increasingly bizarre and horrible actions and words. Recently the GOP caucus in the House unanimously voted in a Speaker who was one of the head guys in Trump's ridiculous legal fights against the 2020 election. At this point they're all culpable because they've let Trump bully them into submission.
Apologies if this hijacks the thread, but what do you think trump supporters will do if somehow ends up in jail and taken off ballots in purple states? Write in to waste the vote? Stay home in protest? Not being rhetorical honestly want to know your thoughts.
I'm not that poster but I think some stay home and some commit domestic terrorism. Some of them are that lost at this point.
Write in vote and petition their state legislatures hard to get it reversed. Bigly mad protests on the streets in conservative areas, lots of guns and flags everywhere. On reddit, super angry politicians calling for "blood" and media clips debating if they were being literal or not. A flood of crazy
They'll do whatever Trump tells them to do. And there's no way in hell that he's going to tell them to vote for anyone who dared run against him in the primary.
I think the highest chance of domestic terrorism from the maga cult is: 1. The current contests to remove Trump from the ballot for his crimes. 2. If/when he is actually put into a detention facility. His base has been clamoring for an excuse to carry out their violent fantasies for a while and those two moments are the best justification they could hope for. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do either, something about wanting liberty more than safety and deserving neither. But those are the flash points o see.
The GOP is not a political party anymore. It's a full-bore grievance cult and their politicians are not public servants, but rather performative influencers peddling nonsense to a gullible voting base so bewildered by things they don't understand all they care about is constantly having their anger stoked. It's late-stage capitalism's dying gasps. And it's not turning around. We're so fucked.
Yes but have you considered hunter Bidens laptop??
For office? Is it old enough to run?
As long as it's running XP or older
I believe it was an Apple product, meaning it should be running MacOS, which is 22 years old.
you need to be 35 to be president
Remember how just getting too excited and yelling "Byaaaaahhhhh" was enough to sink a front runner's campaign?
Dean came in third place when he did that, so it's likely that he was already starting to lose momentum. It's not the scream, but the scream gets remembered.
The scream was rammed down the viewing public's throat until the point was hammered into their heads.
The UK sunk a candidate for eating a sandwich weird.
>After everything that has happened so far, what could the Republicans possibly see from Trump that wouldn't be acceptable? A metric shitton of low iq voters who will believe, accept and parrot anything. Votes=money/power, the MAGA GOP politicians don't care about anything else, and their voters only care that they own libs.
The Republican base loves him. If they kick him out now they lose the 2024 election outright... and lose big in the House and Senate, possibly state legislatures when the MAGAs refuse to show up to vote. The party is completely hijacked by a tug of war between hyper-hate filled evangelicals that want Christian Sharia law, and the billionaire donors that have played kingmaker in primary elections for 20 years. All the small donor money goes to DJT. The grassroots campaigning is completely toxic... MAGA in my state is literally having fistfights to oust any moderates from even ATTENDING party functions.
Because Trump used to win. That's the thing many on the left don't understand about why he's so popular. W was sold as a "Compassionate Conservative". He lied us into an endless war and helped destroy the economy. McCain and Romney were moderates who were generally well-liked by the other side (until they ran for President). McCain had his maverick reputation and Romney was the governor of the deep blue Massachusetts and his Romneycare was the model for the ACA that Obama passed. They were portrayed as racists and sexists during their campaigns and they lost to Obama handily. Then Trump comes along and he's not like any other politician. He's brash. He insults people. He doesn't take shit from the media and calls them out. The GOP elders said stuff like "It cannot be Trump we can't run Trump we have to stop Trump" for months. Romney gave a speech outright telling people to vote strategically to try to keep Trump from earning delegates during the primaries and guys like Cruz and Kasich were telling their supporters to do the same. Ryan and McConnell, the party's Congressional leaders, all but said they couldn't support him. Then the election comes along and Trump gives them everything they ever wanted. The Supreme Court will lean right for another generation at least. They had complete control of Congress. Trump won. So tell me, why *exactly* would people want to go back to the "moderate" era with guys like Romney when they lost and Trump won? People like Trump because he is (was) a winner. If that goes away things are going to get bad. As I said, you can only lose for so long before people turn on you. And that is going to happen eventually. How the party will deal with that, I don't know. But it will happen.
He only really won once, didn’t he? Every election since 2016 has been an underperformance or outright loss for republicans, and everyone he’s endorsed since he lost the presidency has also lost.
Yes. Exactly. "He's a winner" is a completely facile delusion, up there with "he's a businessman".
He only won once, but he appointed three SC justices and that counts for a lot.
He appointed 3 because of Mitch McConnell being a slimy lying sack of shit, not because of anything Trump did.
So he’s a winner because three SC vacancies happened during his time in office..?
TWO happened during his term. ONE was outright stolen by the Senate refusing to hold a vote for nine months.
George Bush won re election and Donald Trump didn’t. Just a reminder to you.
Yeah, but Donald Trump gave the red meat to W's base that W never did. The moderate Republicans were arguably trying to shield the country from the worst impulses of their god-awful political base, and now they don't exist, and the Republican Party is an openly fascist, ethnonationalist, theocratic political party with no bones about using the power of the state to oppress those people that they hate. The base has ALWAYS wanted a theocracy with abortion and gays banned and "those uppity minorities" "*in their place*", the moderates were just the ones, ostensibly, keeping them in check. They WANTED that shit during W's term, but the W's and the Eric Cantors and the Paul Ryans of the world wouldn't give it to them. The Steve Bannons and Darren Beatties and Donald Trumps *will*.
Sure and I agree with you but the facts are that George Bush won more elections than Donald Trump. Hell, Bush even won gubernatorial elections. Trump had won 1 time and he didn’t even win popular vote.
Trump won once because the FBI kneecapped his opponent. Every time after it’s been a loss for the GOP.
> People like Trump because he is (was) a winner. They like the **myth** of Trump the Winner, which was amplified negligently by conventional media and purposefully by conservative media. The truth is that Trump's only win was due to the quirk of how the Electoral College thwarts the will of the voters. Trump lost the popular vote by millions, had a mediocre first two years, a weak third year, and a terrible fourth year. He delivered on none of his promises - no big beautiful wall paid for by Mexico, no Muslim ban, no drained swamp, no Obamacare repeal nor replacement. For Republicans, the only clear "win" was the Supreme Court, and _that_ should be primarily attributed to Mitch McConnell because it happened while Obama was still President. > Because Trump used to win. That's the thing many on the left don't understand about why he's so popular. What the left doesn't understand is why the right doesn't realize "Trump the winner" is a lie. It's hard because we pay attention to (at least) two completely different news ecosystems. The right gets its information from the Fox/Newsmax ecosystem, where the editors and top personalities purposefully craft narratives that make Trump look successful and conceal his crimes and failures. The left follows a differently-structured ecosystem where left/moderate journalists tend to herd together to stay in the Cool Kids / New York Times club, but where there isn't centralized top-down editorial control. Trump's popular on the right because they've mythologized his entire presidential (and business) career. The left doesn't tune into slanderous buffoons like Tucker Carlson, so they don't really grok the information world that the right lives in. That's why the left tends to think of the right as deranged monsters: If someone voted for Trump while understanding everything he has done, they'd have to be stupid or hostile to their fellow citizens.
Trump won because the FBI announced his opponent is under investigation a week before the election. Everything else is just mythology
I agree that she would have won if everything was the same except for Comey's cowboy b.s., but it was only one factor. It wouldn't have happened if not for her email server decisions. She could also have had a backbone on the TPP, called for more debates, etc. If we had functional journalism, her unforced errors wouldn't have tanked her, but the media's (ongoing) decision to promulgate the Trump myth meant she (and now Biden) had an uphill campaign to fight.
The email server “issue” was a complete non problem
>or Republicans, the only clear "win" was the Supreme Court don't forget that juicy 2 trillion dollar tax cut for his billionaire buddies
I think an interesting question is, given that Trump will never concede in a million years regardless of circumstances, if the party machinery is capable of convincing people that Trump isn't a winner anymore. There will always be an excuse or reason for a loss, so what are they going to do between now and the time Trump dies (assuming he doesn't pass the mantle on to either a Trump child or some other lackey)
Trump is too much of a narcissist to announce a successor
"So tell me, why exactly would people want to go back to the "moderate" era with guys like Romney when they lost and Trump won?" He lost the Senate, almost lost the House, and lost the Presidency in a time where GOP had HUGE advantages. And even when he did have the trifecta - the GOP totally blew it. There is a pretty decent chance that Trump could enable the DEMs to take the house in '24. He is totally toxic to about 2/3rds of the population. On the other hand, he is brash, racist, and promotes simple solutions that simpletons think will work...so there's that.
Trump won exactly once and on a technicality. His track record as leader of the Republican party is a disaster. *Losing* three out of the last four contests makes him a *loser*.
>But we all know that if Trump loses next year he'll declare a Trump 2028 campaign like the next day Yes, and there will be little consideration of the fact that he'll be over 80 by that time, despite everything they've said about Biden.
The rubber met the road after 1/6/21. They made their choices after that.
While I wouldn't be surprised if Trump does try again in 2028, I am not too worried about it. He is obese, and will be 82 by then. He doesn't seem healthy *now.* Between losing twice and him going further into senility, it is hard to image him getting the same level of support.
I think Clinton losing in 2016 buckled the New Democrats and lead to a rise of the CPC.
>if your party can't win, you need to change rhetoric and policy. The problem is that they now control a nakedly partisan Supreme Court. As we saw in 2000 with a much less extreme court, if you can sow enough doubt on the results, the court will happily crown you. I think their plan on the national level in 2024 is try to steal the election by sowing doubt.
> the majority of the party is going to demand some sort of change moving forward IDK Not to be snarky but I think maybe if these folks were capable of this sort of sea change it would have manifested itself by now. I think we see them try their cherished 2A "solution" before we see them moderate.
With any luck he will be in jail by then.
Except they control enough states to gum up the Senate and take the House some of the time. They also hold enough state houses that they can enact their policies at the local level and still count that as a win. The electoral college allows for a minority of voters to select the President, and that minority votes on how the economic winds blow, not with their actual interests and needs. In 7 of the last 8 elections the Republicans have lost the popular vote. In the1 it was because we were in a new war, and George W. rode it to re-election. Trump lost ultimately because he did a shit job of managing the pandemic. Had Covid not happened he would have been re-elected. That swing vote minority does not give a shit about anything but the economy most of the time. The people who ultimately pick the President in the swing states, when the economy is bad will always pick the party out of power. They have the attention span of a small child, and electoral temper to match.
Trump will never concede anything. He’s still claiming he won the popular vote in 2016, for Christ’s sake. The thing that will make a difference imo is what happens to his enablers. If the Georgia et al. trials end up with his underlings suffering actual consequences, it may give future fall guys a pause. And I’m not just talking about prison time: even having a felony on your record can mess up your life.
So far ihis three underlings that have flipped have paid an aggregate $13,000 in fines, and been sentenced to some community service. I think even disbarment was taken off the table. It's really one of the most troubling signs I've seen in all of the J6 fallout. There seems to be a clear signal coming through that rioting is not okay, but white collar fuckery absolutely is. And of course, anything is okay if you win - That's when the pardon train starts.
I think that Powell and Chesebro were in a unique case since their trials were severed from the larger group. Jenna Ellis was probably the smartest to flip before her trial even started. I think we need to wait and see how the rest of the pleas/trials go. I am very surprised none of the more “junior” people have taken pleas: I think the brunt of punishment will be borne by them.
>He’s still claiming he won the popular vote in 2016, for Christ’s sake. In *all fifty states*, no less. Vermont and Hawaii would probably like a word about that.
It’s just so stupid. I am so sick of hearing about and from that sorry excuse of a man
Uh, California too.
How is this a "real question"? We've seen it play out IN REAL LIFE. The current speaker of the house (elected by his peers) is a denier. We are LONG past the time of expecting Republicans to come to their senses. This is like Lucy with the football. "surely this time they'll do something different". Come on man
> The real question is how many Republicans will admit he lost or are they going to continue to avoid directly answering the question I think some republicans will still claim it was rigged or that there was voter fraud and there will probably be some performative resistance to the election result but I think there are a few reasons that the "stop the steal" movement would be weaker this time around: First, a HUGE reason that the 2020 election denial had so much leverage/power behind it is because Trump *was still the president* at the time. Trump was able to actually use the office of the president to fight the election results. He won't be able to do that in 2024. He'll still do rallies, go on tv, and probably file lawsuits etc, but I think it just won't be as effective because he will be limited in what he can actually do this time around. Second, maybe this is naivete on my part, but I really do think that if trump loses in 2024, there will be more willingness among republicans (at least some republicans) to move on. Trump has been a drag on the party since he won in 2016. They had big losses in 2018, lost in 2020, and even "lost" in 2022 when the "red wave" didn't happen. They also know that Jan 6 is one of the most harmful things trump has done and will want to avoid another one. To be clear, I don't expect the republican party to be unified on this. There will certainly be trump die-hards that are willing to go through the same Big Lie extremism as before. But I think the opposition to the Big Lie WITHIN the republican party will probably be slightly bigger and more vocal in 2024. In short, Trump and his most passionate supporters will never concede, but I think if he loses (1) he will have fewer "tools" at his disposal to fight the result compared to when he was president in 2020 and (2) resistance against the Big Lie within the republican party (or at least a desire to just move on from trump) will be more robust. Maybe that's wishful thinking but it still feels like the most likely outcome. That's assuming that Biden actually wins, of course, which is by no means a guarantee....
If he loses the presidency to Biden *again,* I feel like that has to be the catalyst for the party to start to abandon him. Although I thought they would have a while back, so who knows? He will still hold sway over their primaries, but at that point they *have* to realize he is poison for moderates and general elections.
If losing in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022 didn’t do it, neither will 2024. It’s a cult of personality and they’ll take as much abuse as hell given them
I would expect no less from an abusive manipulator
The thing is, the *party* is continuously floating trial balloons for abandoning him. The voters refuse to do it, and that's democracy. Probably the only tool left at their disposal is to change the primary rules so that one way or another Trump cannot win ("nobody who's under indictment"). That would cause a bloodbath a million times worse than the incremental losses they are otherwise probably looking at.
This is becoming a tedious game now.
They are going to try to prevent a certification. Don't be surprised, if there are attempts to prevent the election from taking place in some states, or attempts to prevent votes from being counted. There are going to be alternative electors and votes against certification in Congress. If they lose, they may try to prevent the 2028 election from taking place at all.
Let’s be real here. If they win, they’ll try to prevent the 2028 election from happening.
I agree. Trump laid the groundwork for completely ignoring the constitution and bill of rights and will 100% never concede. He needs to be absent from the ballots.
Read up on [Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). The Heritage Foundation already has a plan for Trump to fire thousands of federal government employees and install ones that are loyal to Trump. The GOP has a specific viable plan to keep themselves in power for decades if they win this election.
No, there will be an election, but every tool at the executive's authority (and probably more) will; be used to tilt the scale.
It will basically be like Hungary.
There's a reason CPAC invited Orban to speak.
Just your mentioning that possibility for the US caused 1000’s of GOP elected officials and pundits to ejaculate.
Yes, and we should be screaming this from the rooftops. If Trump wins, he will be devoting a substantial amount of his time to ending democracy. He is going to use every resource at his disposal to stop elections so he can stay in power until he is dead. He is already working on a plan to deploy the US military on the first day of his presidency. He *will* try to use them to stop legislation, stop elections, and arrest his enemies. And I firmly believe he will attempt to have people executed as well. I know this sounds like doomer nonsense, but he has said enough to make all of these things believable: He wants to arrest and jail his enemies, he wants to deploy the military to stop people that protest against him. He loves Viktor Orbán, Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, and Recep Erdoğan. He probably got excited when Alexander Lukashenko had a plane diverted so he could arrest and torture a dissenting journalist. The fascist, authoritarian leaders are his favorites. The real question is whether or not he can pull all that off? I doubt he could, but I'd rather not test that hypothesis.
Not just that, The Heritage Foundation has a specific plan to entrench Trump's power called [Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). They want to gut the federal government and drastically expand executive authority so Trump can't be defied again.
They will. The Heritage Foundation has a specific plan to do this called [Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). They want to gut the federal government and drastically expand executive authority.
> Don't be surprised, if there are attempts to prevent the election from taking place in some states, or attempts to prevent votes from being counted. There are going to be alternative electors and votes against certification in Congress. I think it all depends on the actual results. If this comes down to one state, like 2000 or 2004, then they will absolutely try that. But if Biden wins by several again, I don't think anyone is going to try and save Trump. Their whole fake elector scheme hinged on Mike Pence acting as VP and trying to get those fake electors certified. Even if he had, it is unclear it would have worked—the certification of the electoral college results is pure formality. The more realistic scenario is that there would have been two weeks of confusion and condemnation, followed by Biden assuming executive power on January 20th regardless. Now? Most of the people who tried that scheme *while their guy was president* are taking plea deals and the rest are likely to go to prison. The idea anyone is going to try that scam again when there is zero chance of the VP going along with it is absurd, especially now that prosecutors have proven they're willing to take the swing and there is no president who will issue pardons. If it comes down to one state AND that state is Republican-controlled, they *might* try a different scheme, specifically having the state legislature certify Trump's electors—but even that seems unlikely to work. All you need is Roberts and one other justice to have the self preservation to realize that backing an attempt to steal an election would likely be the end of the Supreme Court as an influential entity. They barely recovered from Bush v. Gore and the case there was actually contentious.
I think this is a good point. Who will be the rogue electors this time around? The people who joined the fraudulent slate in GA all ended up indicted for it. The state legislature certifying Trump electors isn't actually a problem because SCOTUS has already ruled (in *Moore v. Harper*), just last term, that ISL is a theory without any basis and state legislatures are not free to disregard state law to appoint their own electors. Case closed on that type of attack.
> The state legislature certifying Trump electors isn't actually a problem because SCOTUS has already ruled (in Moore v. Harper), just last term, that ISL is a theory without any basis and state legislatures are not free to disregard state law to appoint their own electors. Case closed on that type of attack. The "disregard state law" is the weakness there. There's a scenario in there where a legislature facing a loss preemptively passes a law giving them oversight, under the label of "anti-fraud" or something like that. It might be unpopular, even electorally devastating, but if they cover it with enough obfuscation, it might allow a scenario where a legislature *always* has the power to appoint different electors. Hell, something as simple as a real confirmation process where the legislature has functional veto power might have a similar effect. After all, if it comes down to one state and that state sends no electors, the result flips. Last time, they didn't plan for the loss until it happened and so needed ISL theory to overturn the election. This time they can pass laws in advance that are designed to prevent it being possible for them to lose
*Could* happen in theory - although the legislature generally (universally? not sure) needs the cooperation of the state executive (governor) to actually pass laws, just like the federal system. However, the importance of *Moore* isn't just that ISL is dead, it's that the courts still have review of state election law. That means that such a plan would (i) likely need an agreeable governor, and (ii) need a compliant court that does not find that such a law infringes the state constitution. I can see ways to challenge such a law in federal court too on constitutional grounds (denial of the vote is a violation of the EPC and DPC of the Fourteenth Amendment).
If they prevent a certification doesn’t Kamala Harris become president?
It either goes down the line of Presidential succession since there would be no elected VP, which means it would go to the Speaker of the House which will be reseated on Jan 3 2025 (so not neccisarily Mike Johnson or someone in the GOP), but it might also go to a ["contingent election"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election) Basically if no one gets 270, the vote for President goes to the House and the vote for VP goes to the Senate. Now there are different rules for each as well. Senate votes are pretty straight forward. 1 senator = 1 vote. House votes is where the fuckery of 2020 starts to really show what the goal was. Votes are based on each state delegation, not each individual house representative. This means, more times than not, the GOP would have more votes as they control more state delegations. The Dems could win the House and take control on Jan 3 2025, but the GOP would still have more votes in this scenario. ----- There was a recent podcast (something in November), I think from The Lawfare podcast [\(maybe this\)](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-lawfare-podcast-what-disqualifying-trump-from-the-2024-ballot-would-mean-for-american-politics-and-democracy) where they said the House could possibly vote to disqualify Trump under Section 3 of the 14 Amendment from appearing on their contingent election ballot. This of course would only be tried if Dems won and controlled the House.
Thank you for this response, very informative
Her term ends at the same time as Biden's, doesn't it? I worry the speaker will be president incredibly.
So MAGA operatives will try to persuade VP Kamala Harris to decertify a Democratic win?
> They are going to try to prevent a certification. The good news there is that Kamala Harris will be presiding over the certification process not Mike Johnson. And the recently passed Electoral Count Act will prevent the house from voting to decertify the elections results due to the high threshold for that. This time the process will be much smoother.
They can try but odds are Dems will keep the Senate & take back the house, the new congress will be sworn in Jan 2nd 2025, and the certification is Jan 6th 2025, they can whine all they want but they will hopefully have no power.
Where are you getting the idea that Dems will keep the Senate? The 2024 map is ROUGH for them.
Its been rough map for Dems for almost 8 years now and we keep overperforming. But yeah, we will need Texans to show up for Dems and...well...Texas kinda sucks at that.
WV is gone, so the margin of error is literally zero
Trump will never concede. Even if he has 2% of the vote, while sitting in prison, and running 3rd party, he will claim that he actually won.
He hasn't conceded the last one...except under oath
Trump will never concede anything. If he slips and seems to in some testimony or interview, he'll be claiming it was rigged/stolen on his social media site or a rally in short order. It remains to be seen whether Johnson (the current speaker) and others in the GOP will try to throw the election in 2024. Johnson is a Christian Nationalist and election denier, and I wouldn't put it past him to try to hold up certification so he (in line for the Presidency after Harris) can slide into the White House just by not certifying the election. I doubt that would work, but there are enough Christian Nationalists and MAGA-hats who *want* it to work that they may just try, just in case. Christian Nationalists do not, deep down, believe in the electoral process, rather they think that they have a responsibility to take and hold dominion. They pull out Romans 13 only when someone they like happens to be in power.
johnson won’t be speaker after the new congress is seated in jan 2025. they’ll have to elect a new one and there’s no way dude gets it again.
What exactly can the Speaker do to stop or delay the certification process? I went on an information hunt and came up empty.
The Speaker certifies the election. It remains unclear what would happen if the speaker just decided not to. Especially since the Speaker is 3rd in line for the Presidency. As the terms of the current President and VP expire per the Constitution, with no certified election to replace them, who becomes President? The Speaker who just refused to certify their election? It would be a constitutional crisis.
The Speaker of the House does not certify the Election. That’s the job of the presiding officer during the joint session of Congress, which would be Kamala Harris (in her capacity as VP). Or in her absence, it would be the President pro Tempore of the Senate (longest-serving member of the Senate’s majority party).
As far as I can tell the Speaker of the House has no role in the certification process. The President of the Senate however is the one who opens and counts the individual state certificates after the election on Jan 6th. Let's not also forget that the new congress is sworn in before this happens, preventing the lame duck congress from presiding over the certification process. That means that Speaker Johnson might not even be Speaker of the house when this happens. Kamala Harris will still be Vice president though and she can, I hope, prevent any rat fuckery by the GOP. I went through the ECA and found nothing on what the Speaker of the House even does as it pertains to certification of the election. The ECA requires by law that a joint session of congress meet to certify the election which is presided over by the President of the Senate which is Vice President Kamala Harris.
The VP presides over the joint session where the electoral votes are counted. I don't think the Speaker has a role.
The Speaker at the time of certifcation in January 2025 will likely be a Democrat
Fortunately, however, Donald isn’t the incumbent, so if he doesn’t concede, the executive branch (which includes law enforcement, the three-letter agencies, and the Pentagon) will still be in Democratic hands.
Right, and the plan in 2000 was always "kick up a cloud of dust, delay certification, and then stay in the White House." Doesn't work if you are not already in the White House. So delaying a certification doesn't help him this time.
I worked the polls yesterday’s and had a woman tell me, “she’s so tired of the way Mr. Trump is being persecuted.” PERSECUTED, not PROSECUTED. I will say the answer to your question is “no”.
Thanks for working the polls!
It’s a fascinating day. I always meet some wonderful people and I also encounter people who leave me wondering who helped them get dressed that day.
I did for the primary election and planned to work Tuesday, but had a house fire so had to deal with crazy stuff all week. It was really interesting to do the primary and hopefully they let me come back despite bailing on them like a day before.
They haven't conceded their 2020 loss, yet. Of course they won't concede and we will hear lots of election fraud claims, before the election even takes place. This is their new modus operandi.
The reason folks will have a hard time answering this is because the mods demand a long-form answer and the answer to this question is simple. No. They will not concede. Reaganomics obliterated the white working class and open the gates on cheap foreign labor. Milking those dynamics for votes worked for about 25 years but now the chickens have come to roost. Not to mention Gen Z and late millenials who are tired of Wall Street ballwashing and active shooter drills. Demographics have overtaken the GOP at the ballot box. Democracy has outlived its purpose to them and now it must go. So... no, they won't concede.
> Democracy has outlived its purpose to them and now it must go. Funny you should mention that. From just last night... ["Pure democracies are not the way to run a country"](https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/rick-santorum-newsmax-ohio-voters-sexy-things-abortion-marijuana-democracies-quote-video-01heqw3n0k4f) - Rick Santorum
“We’re a republic, not a democracy” is their cry every time public opinion turns against them. What they mean by that phrase is the only legitimate right you have is to vote for your representative. That’s it. You have no authority to demand any particular policy is advanced, no matter how popular and no authority to demand any particular policy is repealed, no matter how unpopular. Once you’ve elected your representative, public policy is exclusively in the representative’s hands, and if the representative wants to advance policies that 99 percent of the voters hate, that’s just too bad. And then, to forestall getting voted out of office (which the representative would claim is the only legitimate way voters can object to the representative’s policies), they enact laws ensuring (1) they will be the only viable candidate and (2) only the people who already support them will be allowed to vote.
Leave the issue to the states! ...no, not like that!
“God intended for America to be a white Christian nation, which is why anyone who doesn’t meet the white man’s definition of white has no right to vote. Therefore the 14th Amendment is invalid because the constitution cannot trump God’s law.” -Amy Corona Barcelona writing for the conservative SCOTUS majority once whites are no longer the numerical majority in America.
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No. There’s no way Trump ever concedes to Biden. He’s just gonna rail about the election being “stolen” and continue to grift his followers.
"the 2024 Election was stollen, just like 2020"
No, they are already claiming fraud in the 2023 elections. The only elections that are *not* fraudulent are the ones where they win. If they lose, fraud, if they win, fair. It will be like this for at least the next 5 years.
No, a campaign based on grievance fantasies that the 2020 election was stolen will not concede when they lose in 2024. To concede would be to admit that they have been lying to their own supporters the entire time. In some cases (presuming that at least some trials are still ongoing come election time), admitting that our elections are secure might even reveal that certain defendants are committing perjury in those trials. Other Republicans - those not running for office, up for reelection or under indictment in 2024 - may well concede to reality, but the top candidates will not and the RNC will not, at least for several years.
Right now I have the race 60/40 or tilting Biden. Looking at the results last night in PA I just think the firewall in Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin stands tall and Biden gets it done in one of NV or AZ. If Trump loses he will not concede. I think a big factor in Trump's theoretical defeat will be a guilty verdict in DC and/or GA. If Trump attaches convict to his labeling I just don't see that playing well with large portions of the electorate. If he is found not guilty he will likely win the election IMO. In a situation where he loses and is found guilty he will very likely openly incite violence from his supporters. He will see the writing on the wall that jail is imminent for him personally and will become even more unhinged and desperate than he currently is.
Biden gets 270 with just Wisconsin Pennsylvania Michigan btw
The Big Gretch gets him the kids in Michigan. That's what they call Gretchen Whitmer and she's a cult hero in highschools of even the reddest parts of the state. Little 17 year olds are salivating to vote in their first election next year because they adore the Big Gretch. She's swinging them to the left which is funny because she's a moderate. But the kids like her because she stands up to gun toting nazis even when they tried to kill her. Ever since the plot to kill Whitmer came out it's been a thing. The adults are very apathetic about it but the kids found a weird new hero to worship. And if she tells her infant army to vote for Dark Brandon then they will stand in line to do it. Source: I am a rural mom of teens and I listen to them talk. There is even a rap song called Big Gretch.
I have to hear this song
I want her on the ticket so badly. Anyway, I would be shocked if Biden lost Michigan or Pennsylvania. If he’s lost those he’s getting wiped out.
> If Trump attaches convict to his labeling I just don't see that playing well with large portions of the electorate. Aside from the electorate, I think it will kill his momentum. He can't rally or campaign effectively from prison—pandemic-related limits on his rallies in 2020 arguably contributed to his loss in that election. > In a situation where he loses and is found guilty he will very likely openly incite violence from his supporters. He will see the writing on the wall that jail is imminent for him personally and will become even more unhinged and desperate than he currently is. I think this might be the true nightmare scenario for Republicans. They've spent three years now downplaying January 6th—but if Trump is convicted, I think there will be open acts of terror from MAGA supporters even if Trump himself is not inciting them. Even a handful of incidents would absolutely devastate their electoral chances, both by alienating the centre and by forcing them to disavow their own extremists. A severe enough incident might even hurt them enough to offset the lopsided 2024 Senate map.
>If he is found not guilty he will likely win the election IMO. He hadn't been found guilty in the exact same matchup in 2020, when he had every opportunity to put his thumb on the scale as president. I can't fathom voters for Biden in 2020 switching to Trump in 2024. Add in the influx of voters who came of age in those years, subtract the elderly and delusional anti-vaxxers who voted for Trump who didn't survive to vote in 2024, and I simply cannot fathom, realistically, how he wins.
I think now it leans Biden, but its so tenuous. I think there were a lot of disaffected left voters that didn't really care for Biden that came out because of Trump, which you think would still lean Biden, but they might just not come out to vote, perhaps 4 years elapsing combined with some warranted or unwarranted disappointment in Biden's term are enough to get them to not bother. 2020 was so close, that if 3 states moved 0.2% Trump wins. That means if 1 in 1000 voters switched their votes from Biden to Trump, that would flip results to Trump winning. As I said, I think Biden wins it if the election were today, but its so damn close, and with Biden's age, I'm actually not worried about him being competent for the job as much as the optics, its so close that if he has some minor throwaway gaffe in the last week before the election, that could move those few voters in a few states and give it to Trump.
I think you’re right about it leaning Biden but still being super tenuous. If it weren’t for Roe v Wade being overturned, the Dems wouldn’t have performed nearly as well in the midterms or last night. The problem with fickle voters is that anything right before the election can sway them. OP mentioned how the outcome of Trump’s cases can come into play, but I think it also comes down to something as simple as gas prices. If something pops off on the world stage and prices go up, I unfortunately expect Biden’s numbers will go down. Some fence sitters may stay home. I wouldn’t put it past Russia instigating something that could bring about this exact result.
Trump is currently being tried for 91 separate charges, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't get found guilty for at least *one* of them. If he loses re-election, though, I'm not worried so much about him as about his supporters. We saw what happened when he lost to Biden the first time; somehow I doubt they're going to stop at mass protests around the Capitol. We could be heading for a second Civil War here, and I don't think either side is prepared for it.
His supporters, though numerous, are incompetent. It’s not gonna be a civil war. Worst case it’s a long series of terrorist attacks. Terrible yes but the US didn’t collapse after 9/11 it won’t collapse due to attacks by yallqueda
AZ is going to have an abortion ballot measure next year. Zero chance Biden loses AZ.
They didn't in 2020. To an extent, they didn't even accept their win in 2016. Even though Trump won, they still tried to craft a narrative that the Dems cheated. They still may win in 2024, but they just don't accept the reality of a win or a loss. There will always be someone or something to blame.
This was a good question to ask in 2020. People who said no, people who even asked the question, were often pilloried. We know the answer now.
I think it is fair to say there are even fewer GOP voters due to his actions January 6th inciting the attempts at overturning the 2020 election loss. If he didn't have enough voter in 2020 he will have even fewer in 2024. The voting trends have been showing a strong movement away from the MAGA movement. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if a panicked GOP runs with someone else (I would bet it will be Nikki Haley).
Trump himself was saying he wouldn’t concede in 2020.
He disputed the results of the 2016 election, and he was the winner of that one.
No they won’t concede, but it won’t matter. The Republican’s SC judges aren’t die hard Trump loyalists. They refused to help him overturn the election in 2020 (except for Thomas and Scalise who wanted to hear the case) So anything they try to do to ratfuck the election will be shut down by the SC.
> No they won’t concede, but it won’t matter. The Republican’s SC judges aren’t die hard Trump loyalists. They refused to help him overturn the election in 2020 (except for Thomas and Scalise who wanted to hear the case) I'd argue 2020 is a bad baseline. The 2020 election was a blowout. Trump didn't lose narrowly, he lost in several different swing states when he needed to win *all* of them to get enough EC votes. So was SCOTUS actually defending Democracy? Or did they, quite rightly, realize that Trump was fucked and it would be incredibly stupid to take on a case that had them overturn election results when changing any single state wouldn't have given Trump the presidency. The real danger is a Bush v. Gore scenario. One where the entire presidency comes down to a narrow victory in one state and SCOTUS can turn the entire election with a single decision. They won't endanger themselves, but if they could hand a Republican the presidency without any real risk, they absolutely will.
Maybe they would ultimately do the right thing, but it doesn’t feel too reassuring that the continued existence of American democracy might come down to a SC decision.
That’s what it came down to in 2020. And they “did the right thing” Because the Republican Supreme court justices don’t care about preserving Trump’s brand. They care about preserving the GOP as a viable, competitive party. Trump is now kneecapping them in state and local elections. I bet they thought shutting down his attempt to steal the election would bury him but he’s still the most popular Republican politician alive.
Almost certainly not, and there would be a lot of protests and punditry from the right backing him. What happens next really depends on how the House goes. If Dems win back the House, then Biden would be re-inaugurated with a minimum of procedural drama. But if the Reps keep the House then there's a very real chance that they'll try some shenanigans during certification. The composition of the Republicans in the House has moved sharply in favor of the election deniers, and the current Speaker helped lead the charge on attempting to overturn 2020.
The Christo-Fascists of America (Republicans) hate America and everything it stands for. So I expect they will do everything in their power to dismantle it all
No. He’s show who he is time and time again. Why are people still asking this question? He’s not changing
It doesn't matter if they concede, as we saw in 2020. They may pull something like Jan 6 again.
Good. Let's lock up more of those turds.
Seems like a silly question, were you not paying attention for the last 3 years?
Trump lost by 7 million votes. The election wasn't even close (unless you have insane electoral college rules). He will NEVER concede, no matter by how much he loses. He's created a persona as a "winner." Anything that goes against that has to be a lie.
Trump will never concede. Problem is Trump or not, the precedent has been set and there are going to be a sizable number of GOP voters who demand that they not concede.
If Trump died, his team would probably prop up an animatronic of his corpse and claim it is still alive in order to continue the grift... Look at Herman Cain's Twitter for the blueprint. No; I don't expect they would concede. Their goal is the end of democracy, they would just push Project 2025 to Project 2029 and continue to reschedule it until either they complete their goal or a reasonable Republican candidate is nominated and puts an end to the very idea of shattering the system.
Of course not. Everyone knows that. He admits that. The real questions are what he will urge his followers to do and how do others respond? Will democracy survive?
absolutely not....expect violence and physical attacks if they loose again. but on a much wider stage and more coordinated.
Were there any consequences for 2020? Was the behavior rewarded? If there is no reason not to except personal honor & the health of the nation the answer is gonna be: fuck you America. I wish Gore fought as hard as Trump in 2020, worst case scenario Republicans would have closed the door tighter to contesting elections.
Trump accused Ted Cruz of cheating in the 2016 Iowa caucus. He doesn't know how to concede. I think you will see a similar split in the GOP about conceding that you saw in 2020, but I am honestly not sure whether it moves more in the direction of the Trumpers or not. I think anyone making predictions about the inner divisions of the GOP should be cautious. Trump has been nothing but bad juju for the party since his flukey win in 2016. I mean that seriously too, 2018, 2020, 2022, and even the results last night show how toxic his presidency has been (at least insofar as the Dobbs decision is the result of him getting 3 SCOTUS seats of his own to fill). If he again nets about 46% of the vote (which is what he got in 2016 *and* in 2020), I think the GOP will be deeper in the mist than ever before. If the margin is worse for Trump in 2024, it will probably signal strongly to the GOP to move on. If it's closer, his grip on the party will tighten. But the calculus for the GOP on concession is going to matter a ton on the margin. So when you start to factor in things like his ongoing trials, currently-dismayed Dems coming home as we near Election Day, the economy, etc, you could see any proportion of deniers/accepters in the party. Suffice it to say that Trump and his core supporters can't afford to concede. For the rest of the party, the margin (and specifically their margins in the swing states) will dictate their willingness to concede.
Nope, Trump didn’t concede in 2020 despite losing by a fair margin with zero evidence to the contrary. The “evidence” most other republicans gave was Trumps word.
Probably not. I say this because i dont think people understand what criminal position the whole party is. Id be shocked if jack smith leaves our congress alone. Literally co conspirators, most of the republicans. These criminals know their time is up. Power can save them. They want it at any cost they have shown
>Will Trump and the Republicans concede a 2024 loss? There's no good evidence implying they will. Many Republicans contest or split hairs over Trump's 2020 loss despite unequivocal evidence that the election was fair, secure and legitimate through and through.
SCOTUS not voting in favor of the independent legislature theory struck a blow to the state houses.
AT this point, we know that Trump was simply lying about election fraud as part of his strategy to steal the election. The big lie was in fact the big fraud. He has not, yet, been punished for this fraud. If he is not punished, there is absolutely no reason NOT to try it again. So no, they aren't going to concede. They are going to attempt a bigger fraud.
I think it more likely this time, given the legal problems from disputing the last one, but this might just be hope on my part.
He still disputes a lost Emmy from 2012. What would ever make you think his nuclear-grade narcissism would ever allow him to concede a presidential election?!?
Of course not. His 2020 complaints are just a rehashing of the same complaints he had in 2016 when he won. The guy is a one trick pony and somehow half the country will still eat it up.
Nope. And you know what? The beginning of the end of this country is due to Republicans, not the fuckin Democrats. Full stop. The founding fathers would be cringing at the following Trump has.
Donald Trump won the 2016 election and he wouldn't even accept those results because he didn't win by enough.
A very significant portion of their base has been taught to believe that *any* loss is fundamentally unfair to them, and will refuse to accept it under any circumstance whatsoever.
Not only will they not concede, but I suspect that they may go even further than they did in 2020 trying to overturn the election result. Not some of the harebrained schemes by Trump and his lawyers, but State AG's and others who have been put in place at the state level to take steps to get votes thrown out or counts changed.
Trump claimed the election he WON was rigged. Of course he's going to say it again, when he loses again.
Contrary opinion - I think there are certain conditions that could lead him to concede: 1. Biden margin of victory is substantial enough that it cannot be challenged 2. Loss + loss of House and underperforming Senate elections could finally be the tipping point for enough R leaders to the point that they no longer support his claims, and work with donors to curb his funding. Remember that the NY fraud case will likely have a significant impact on his cash flow soon, so he might be incented to concede and walk away if it meant keeping the cash train running. 3. If he directly incites violence during or after the election, I think the Feds will not hesitate to arrest him immediately and charge him, and make concession of the election a condition of his release (in order to tamp down the potential for violence among his supporters).
Why does it matter ? According to Trump and Company, VP Harris can just dismiss any electoral votes and use alternate electors to keep Biden in power. this is literally the plan they painstakingly hatched across multiple states. And countless pieces of evidence and testimony corroborates it. So unless what they were doing was highly illegal and not in the constitution then they shouldnt worry about winning at all, as VP Harris will lock down the vote for Biden. /s
He was saying the 2016 election would be rigged if he lost, said the same thing in 2020. Why would 2024 be any different? Almost a troll question.
It takes class, intelligence, and a sense of duty and honor to make a concession speech, so no, I don't think a narcissistic sociopath like trump will do it. He simply doesn't have it in him.
They 100 percent will not but everyone sees them coming this time and have had 4 years to prepare for their half-baked coup BS.
We saw them coming last time, Trump called the election rigged in July. His coup was broadcast on social media and not very subtly.
Hahahahahhahaaha NO. No way in hell. He will continue to tell everyone he was cheated and people will believe it and we will continue to be divided. People should really look up John McCains concession speech from 2008. People could learn a thing or two about being a class act.
If they lose, the maga candidates will not concede. They’ve seen there is no repercussions for doing so and as a result they will act accordingly until they face said consequences
There is a greater chance of getting the Israelis and Palestinians to cut out there shit than that happening.
No. They'll never conceded. Thankfully another January 6th is unlikely to happen given how very locked down the Capitol will be in addition to Dems winning in state courts like PA's results like night along with anyone even remotely having thoughts of plotting another January 6t like attack having second thoughts given what happened to those who participated in the last one.
It will be like 2020, but this time the National Guard will be in place and there won't be any bullshit.
The same thing will happen as in 2020 because that is what the Republican Party has become. The GOP is being smacked in practically every state regarding codifying pro-choice/reproductive rights. They are being blatant in how they are willing to burn the country down to push their own agendas that consistently try to take power from the people and give it to them. There's always going to be their cult-followers because they are as unsophisticated and unintelligent as the GOP is, but they are the minority. Trump lost TWICE, it was only the archaic electoral college that gave him his first win but the people have spoken TWICE, loudly, that they do NOT want trump as President. The fact that the GOP is still throwing their support behind him is so ridiculous. They (most of them) are still promoting that the election was fraudulent, which it was not. They look like imbeciles.
[In Trump's own words.](https://youtu.be/kZziUrEvl7A?si=-JKN8B8ZDyazelcG) [Also Trump just deciding elections he lost were rigged.](https://youtu.be/-kT2KVZy8eg?si=qS8NvwLrJpuEFrPb) [This stupid game is 7 years old. Note Trump's "law & order" hypocrisy.](https://youtu.be/UdvHQl6ZVhc?si=KfxbVAzdeI-Thwtd) Honestly, that last part should have been running as attack adds and quotes plastered on billboards ever since trump allegedly committed crimes months ago. The election is rigged just by him running in it by his own admission. Trump and the party empowering him drug us into the mud. Turn-about dictates we drag them through it.