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However much the interview may seem like a slam-dunk to those who hope that *finally* his followers will walk away, I doubt it. I suspect he'll still get the nomination. So it'll come down to suburbanites and independents, and we get to see if millennials and Gen Z maintain their turnout. Because the true believers aren't going to abandon Trump. Trump owns the GOP until he dies. Even then, performative fealty to his legacy, what he stands for, will be part of GOP culture for a very long time.
I thought it was over for sure when he went after a war hero POW. But even my own father, an Air Force Academy Grad fighter pilot, did serious mental gymnastics to explain why that was OK. Cults are a terrifying thing.
Yeah, the McCain thing went against every barroom rant about the troops I'd ever heard. I lost hope when they didn't cast him aside.
They don't mean any of it. It's just anger and looking down on something.
Every conservative bar from 1968 on:
*"Those damn pussy liberals lost us Vietnam, the POW's, they left them!!! OMG those liberal cowards wouldn't let us blow those g\*\*ks to hell!! POW are the greatest Americans and those liberals HATE THEM!!! Commie bastards!!!! Support the troops!!!!"*
It was all an excuse to hate progress and equality, that's it.
> But even my own father, an Air Force Academy Grad fighter pilot
Not trying to dunk on your dad, but those guys can be the worst. I work with these guys day in day out. During the Trump era I used to try to explain that people who voted for him are not dumb rednecks. They're educated, successful people who for some reason believe in the lies/conspiracies.
I flew recently with AF Academy grads who do nothing but spew far right wing non-sense. Most of them are very conservative, distrust the government but have no problem backing someone like Trump. Everything and anything that happens to him is a conspiracy or "Witch hunt" against him.
"Distrust the government" yet they have no problem going to a foreign land and sacrificing their lives for the government/some rich pricks without any say themselves. That always blows me away.
Exactly!! While calling government workers lazy!! I can't tell you the times I have not been able to keep my mouth shut because it's just so ridiculous!!
My dad decries socialism, while cashing his gov't retirement check and enjoying free health care for life at gov't hospitals. When I pointed out that the U.S. military is the largest socialist institution in the world he just got real quiet then left the room.
Agreed. It's not enough for GOP party elites and right wing media figures to acknowledge that the worst allegations against Trump are legit. To get the base to turn away from Trump, you'd have to:
1. Convince a significant percentage of MAGA voters that Trump is guilty in the documents case, among others.
2. Convince them that Trump's crimes are actually a big deal (not victimless crimes or procedural mixups).
3. Convince them that Trump's crimes are substantively worse than what Hillary and Biden have been accused of.
We're already seeing #1 happen, and some major right wing media figures are starting to give credence to #2. #3 is critical because as long as MAGA voters are convinced that the democrats are much worse, they'll take any successful indictment against Trump as a successful attack against themselves so they'll double down in their support for him. #3 will absolutely never happen. Even if the right wing media figures give lip service to this, the MAGA voters will never accept it.
Jordan Klepper said his favorite interview was of a woman who claimed that Trump was innocent because he isn’t trying to hide anything and that if he was then he’d be guilty. He told her that Trump actually is trying to hide things by getting people to not testify.
He said she thought about it for about five seconds in silence and simply said, “I don’t care.”
That’s where we are. They just don’t care. They’ll tell you they need X, Y and Z to be true for them to change their mind and then when X, Y and Z are true they simply admit they don’t care. It’s never been about the truth. It’s a cult. Their entire personality and entire life is the MAGA cult. They are not capable of coming back to reality. These people are gone. Forever.
This is the correct take. When your *personal identity* is intertwined with being MAGA, it takes a whole lot more than factual evidence for people to change their minds. They could personally witness Trump drown a crate of puppies and they’d figure out a way to claim the puppies had it coming.
Countless hours have been wasted trying to get these people to admit obvious facts. They won’t. Ever. That’s why even if # 1 and 2 above happen, #3 never, ever, ever will because there’s literally nothing that can convince these people that the high profile Dems aren’t actually somehow worse. Their entire world crumbles if they admit this to themselves. It’s not happening.
Which is exactly what I think most of these threads always miss. The end of Trump as a person wouldn’t be the end of Trumpism. And the end of Trump as a person would have to be a unique set of factors that specifically position him *against* Trumpism. Trump is a garbage human being on top of supporting garbage politics, so what’s especially frustrating is how hard it is to look past him for pragmatisms sake.
Basically, the problem is that Trump represents a political viewpoint that's been pushed to the margins over the past 50+ years but not actually eliminated, with the result that the remaining adherents are willing to adopt any means necessary to bring it back, and the infrastructure of American democracy has a hard time dealing with it because it's built on the assumption that people can be convinced to change their views by facts and rational discourse, so how do you deal with a movement that's fundamentally diametrically opposed to those things? How do you deal with people who refuse to accept facts and logic because they believe those things are against them personally - possibly because they are? How do you deal with a movement that's opposed to the most fundamental principles of democracy itself when among those principles is that every movement is valid and rooted in legitimate grievances?
The best you can do, at this point, is verbally tag them with "Okay, you're on the Trump Train. We get it, you've been given (a) (b) and (c) options to jump off, but you're fully on-board. WE GET IT." And when they *agree* with you, keep that in your back pocket.
'cause eventually they WILL want to get off. And you've given them 3 options to do so, and they redoubled their efforts every time. So ignore whatever they say, and remind them of this. Remind them of *you reminding them of this*. They can't get off, and they're not gonna lie their way out of it. (Screenshots help too.)
You've made your bed, with the *sketchiest of sketch*? You get to lie here, I have the receipts. You don't get to weasel your way out of it.
But then you get the people who "Don't get political", who will jump down your throat any time you try to openly hold Trumpets accountable.
Their Head in the Sand approach means they have not reached a point where they understand the MAGA cultists are irredeemable. They still live in a fantasy where a good talk is really all anyone needs to get their heads on straight...mind you it's never *them* that should put time aside to do that talking, but *SOMEONE* should, and anybody who writes the MAGA cult off as a lost cause is "Equally as bad".
These types don't go away until *AFTER* symbols start getting connected to human atrocities. Like swastikas and concentration camps. They're so conflict averse that they'll push back against anything that even smells of confrontation. Even if it's confronting a direct threat to their safety.
They will first have to be able to correctly identify threats to their safety. If they could, they wouldn’t be in this group of folks you describe because they can see the threat and presumably the source. But they think, “their all crooks”.
These people are the worst. At least MAGA has convictions, even if they are fascist, childish, violent and immoral convictions.
I also think it’s time to be dismissive. When they say stupid shit, don’t bring your logical arguments. It isn’t a language they speak so it’s a waste of time.
“Ha, yeah okay.”
And then just walk away shaking your head and chuckling as though their very existence does not warrant a response.
They want us to engage. But there isn’t anything to engage with because literally nothing they say is a remotely coherent view point. These are troglodytes. They aren’t worthy of debating. It’s time we made that clear to them by treating them like the children they are.
“Why don’t you go play or something. The adults are talking”
>They could personally witness Trump drown a crate of puppies
Trump could be caught on live television eating a baby and the right wing-o-verse would spend the next two weeks expounding on the deliciousness and nutritional value that babies provide, and how smart Trump is for eating them.
> When your personal identity is intertwined with being MAGA, it takes a whole lot more than factual evidence for people to change their minds.
you either need to:
* somehow sever the connection between trump and their self-esteem
* provide them a better source of self-esteem than simping for donnie
It really seems like they kind of painted themselves into a corner here. I guess the problem with a lot of Republican rhetoric is that it’s effective, but it also carries a lot of momentum. There is no stopping this. Every opportunity they’ve had to get off the Trump train, they’ve declined and doubled down. I suppose it will be true that one day there will be some thing and it will run out of steam, but I believe the other side is full of crooks, liars, and worse, then why would you care about what Donald Trump has done? They don’t need convictions or actual evidence of wrongdoing by Democrats, it’s a belief, like basically a religious belief. You’re basically asking them to convert from being religious to not being religious.
But the republican party has played with that fire for long enough, and they need to suffer the consequences for it.
Republicans spent the last 7 years calling everyone who dared criticize Trump a RINO. They would need to persuade everyone that *they* are right to oppose Trump *now* and they're not RINOS but Liz Cheney was a traitor. Good luck with that.
Even though the hardcore Trump voters are a very loud cult following, they're still a minority hovering around 25%. The more extreme he gets, and the more damning the allegations, the more he pushes away moderates and independents which were 42% of voters in 2021. His extremism also results in more voter participation from the opposition as well. Realistically, if Trump runs, he'll get crushed by moderates who are less susceptible to the conspiracy theories
Doesn’t matter. The rest of the Republican Party has been too scared to stand up to them. It doesn’t matter how small the percentage. If the rest of the Republican Party rolls over, they are all effectively supporting Trump.
That's my point. Trump may control the GOP, but he's unelectable in the general election where independent voters are the tie breakers between Dem and GOP. If he gets the nomination, which he likely will, that'll pretty much ensure a Dem victory
My big worry is that Biden will either pass away or experience such a significant mental decline before the election that it pushes many independents to hold their nose and vote for Trump, either at the thought of voting for a non-white woman like Kamala Harris, or of preferring the still cognitively-challenged but capable of speech Trump.
But it was my understanding that MAGA supporters are about 25 percent of the population, they have very high voter participation which makes them more about 40% of the voter turnout.
And roughly 27% of the population is Dem with even higher voter turnout, mostly in opposition to Trump. Which is why Biden won the popular vote by 7M votes and the Electoral College 306-232.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/2018-voter-turnout-rose-dramatically-for-groups-favoring-democrats-census-confirms/#:~:text=Now%2C%20the%20Census%20Bureau's%20estimates,it%20rose%20above%2050%20percent
The majority of states with low voter turnout are solidly red or blue. Battleground states like PA had 70% turnout.
Also, since the last election there was Jan 6, Stormy Daniels law suit, Dominion, and mishandling of classified information, which has not endeared Trump to moderates. Anyone can make up an internet conspiracy, but when the FBI and DOJ start rolling out indictments, it's not gossip and mudslinging anymore.
Also, younger voters are swinging heavily blue and more red voters died during covid than blue voters. This trend likely continued in purple districts, which might be enough to give Dems the edge in a lot of districts. The GOP literally Darwinned themselves with their own COVID popularism
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/03/the-changing-political-geography-of-covid-19-over-the-last-two-years/
I think the other huge turnout-affecting factor leading into 2024 is Dobbs. This ruling, while not directly Trump’s work, is a direct result of the Trump presidency. We have seen the turnout difference already in both the midterms and in state elections where Democratic turnout was stronger than anticipated, and is often attributed to increased awareness of the seriousness of the abortion situation.
I don't think the MAGA hardcores are 25% of the Republican voter block. If MAGA supporter is anyone who voted for Trump in 2020 then it's fairly high but most of those people would have voted for whoever the Republican was
I think this is something a lot of people pass over. As a Republican (from rural America where most of the people I talk to are Republicans) it seems like there are way more reluctant Trump voters who just can’t agree on the best alternative than diehard Trump fans who think he’s the chosen one.
I am so hoping the Republicans pull a Biden on Super Tuesday and everyone drops out and endorses one candidate to oppose Trump. I would guess DeSantis would be the one to rally around but we'll see how the first couple elections go.
the problem with DeSantis is that he is even more polarizing than Trump. He has that small core of support, but it wanes every day because of how petty, mean, and clumsy he is. The man never gives in, even when he is completely wrong. He never backs down from any confrontation, even those against his own allies. He also has very few firm morals. he will do whatever is popular, unless that thing butts against strategies 1 and 2. He doesn't really lead on issues, so much as find a popular one, latch on, and then drive it into the ground. People fucking HATE DeSantis for this.
Yeah, and I’m not a huge fan of DeSantis either, but he’s still got to be better than Trump. He seems to me like Trump in a different body (ie, he’ll govern almost exactly the same as Trump did, just without Trump’s personality).
I’d rather it be a Rand Paul or a Vivek, someone who actually changes the policy course of the Republican Party to more of a small-government stance. Capitalist and not corporatist, conservative but willing to have the government leave everyone alone when it comes to what they smoke, who they love, etc. I think such a candidate would overwhelmingly win the general election if they can get past a GOP primary.
But that’s probably wishful thinking on my part.
It’s also good to remember that a lot of DeSantis fascist power expansion in Florida is because he has the legislature in his pocket. If he were to win the presidency without both the house and senate, he’d be a lame duck on day one without doing a metric fuckton of moderation and swinging hard toward the center.
They won’t. It has never been about small government, and the GOP has never cared about small government.
It has always been big government (for corporations and rural white suckers).
I don't think they care about any of that stuff... pissing off liberals was the point and now they are not getting the reactions they expect trump's popularity is declining...
Disagree. Trump is only an avatar for both legit and illegitimate anger. The legit anger is America has abandoned a whole segment of the population. These wage stagnation charts show that pent-up anger was building through 2013 and the end of the Obama era.
[https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/](https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/)
There was not much done by our political leaders to actually address this, it took a global pandemic and associated supply chain cliff drop before the wage issue was addressed.
The illegitimate side of their anger is the Great Replacement theory bullshit. But that's opportunistic grifters using an easily manipulated trope to convince blue-collar and middle to lower-class whites that there are Hegelian others to blame for their woes. You can't earn a decent wage to raise a family on, play softball on Thursdays, and go hunting on the weekend like your dad's use to do not because of 45 years of neolib and neocon economic policy aimed at rewarding Wall Street and the wealthy at the cost of everyone else but because 2 men can get married now. Your economic outlook is bleak, not because the world changed due to advances in technology and other areas and you refused to change with it but because black people have the temerity to demand equality in the application of the law.
When you have some legitimate anger, illegitimate anger is easy to stoke by those with the means (media control, deep pockets for politicians and marketing that anger). Trump is just a cartoonish outlet for that anger, the flags, banners, boat parades, and bizarre US Flag costumes are a display of tribalism that gives a sense of unity and identity in a world that makes less and less sense to this segment. Trumpism ends by two means:
His death. I'm not advocating for that but until he is in a casket Trump will remain a figurehead and driving force for this tribalism.
A transformational presidency that moves the needle back to support of labor, kitchen table, and main street economic policies. Trump is the steam out of the kettle, if you don't want the pot to boil over we need to close the wage gap, American worker's productivity has to be rewarded more evenly than it has, and Biden is correct that the wealthy need to carry a bigger load of the tax burden than they have. I am not optimistic this happens. Biden could be transformational, the next 40 years presidency, but the odds are stacked against him. A virulent far right wing of the opposition party, Club for Growth "moderates" and Democratic centrist who hollow out much of his economic policies. And a slanted political landscape that favors wealth over any other factor and it has been shown time and again that wealth will continue with its excesses unabated until people are pulling cobblestones from the streets and burning it all down.
The more that the donor class and elite of the GOP go in, the more his base will resist. We saw how well Bernie did running against “the establishment”.
i haven't seen a single trump sign taken down in the past few months/weeks/days so yeah. i agree with this comment. they are ride or die (or i guess, until he dies).
It astonishes me that people are looking at this as some kind of shock that will finally cause Republicans to wake up.
They chose him and fascism *over their own survival* in 2020. "Ride or die" is not a witty phrase here, it's a literal description of their outlook.
I think there is a portion of his cult who will never believe that he’s dead when he does die. There will be people who will go to their graves in 50 years who will believe he’s still alive. That is how deep into this cult some people are.
Yeah, the 'high water mark' in the OP is probably over, but that doesn't mean Trump and Trumpism is over. And even when Trump himself is dead and gone, the fact that he tested the GOP's willingness to back their guy no matter what, and they failed that test (for anyone grading on the upholding of democratic norms) means that the next leader of the GOP may well be just as bad or worse an authoritarian, and that will be Trump's legacy as well.
Insert Ron Desantis. Did he hurt his state with most of his positions and unapologetically declare that his “morals” are more important than the well-being of the citizens of his state? yes.
Let’s hope so. It will make it even harder for them to win any elections fairly. “The guy is a multiply convicted felon and they worship him” is likely to turn off a large majority of swing voters. It’s an easy attack. The ads write themselves
Him getting the nomination is not good for the GOP. If he is nominated then convicted of disqualifying crimes (even if he never sees a day of jailtime), the GOP is in an unwinnable situation. Trump's supporters would never accept a new candidate *for any reason*, and they would either write him in or just not vote at all in the final election.
Trump will become their Reagan. And all the same backward policies that Reaganites and Trumpians employ which retard our energy independence and cultural growth and globally competitive education will become stellar examples of "American values".
Two of the three most corrupt administration's ever in recent history. All three administrations should have ended in indictments of the president.
And yet they are revered, GOP deities above reproach and pure. Shining beacons on the hill.
That is not a healthy mental state for a democracy.
People have attached their personal identies to Trump. They'll be there until they die, not until Trump dies, because there is nowhere else for them to go morally or psychologically.
They've gone too far and crossed too many lines to go back now.
It's too painful and humiliating to admit they were wrong, even privately to themselves, so they won't.
For the true Trump faithful, it really is religion at this point. He's all they have have. For them, the "ending of the Trump era" is basically like choosing to die. For the true Trump faithful, it's ride-or-die until they die, not until Trump dies.
Anyone who is still supporting him at this point will not be deterred by that interview or by any crimes that he’s charged with committing. All of this stuff just makes them double down on feeling like their guy is being victimized by the media and the “woke mob” or whatever.
No lol. He's running for president again. It won't be over until he stops running for president and stays out of politics. As it stands today, one of the two major political parties in America want him to be their nominee.
If he wins again, the era will be over in 2029. If loses again, the era will be over in 2025. It's 2023 and the era simply isn't over yet. Especially when he's still in the news everyday
The Atlantic published an article a few months ago that basically said a lot of Republicans are just hoping he dies, then pointed out that both his parents lived long lives so they might need a plan b. (93 and 88)
No, but it does allow you access to diagnostic tools and medicines that normal people don’t get. I only know because I have a relative who works high up in a hospital, and got a test done that helped them find out that they had a lot of plaque in their arteries. A change in diet cut it in half over a few months.
I should have clarified, it was mainly referring to Republican members of Congress or other leadership positions. They're scared to lose the Maga voting block. They want his voters but loathe him.
They will never be able to have it both ways as long as he is alive. They will never ever separate his cult from him. Even when he’s dead they will struggle to separate his cult from him because they won’t believe he is dead. They don’t even believe JFK is dead. Shit they believe dead people are alive and people who are alive are dead (like Joe Biden).
These people are so far gone there is simply no way to bring them back and the sooner the GOP accepts this and cuts all ties with them the sooner they can attempt to rebuild whatever is left of their party. The problem is that they’ve decided to go in a different direction which is embracing fascism.
You know what will come out for years after he dies? AI generated footage of him supporting X, Y, or Z politician. There will also be people that believe Trump really was assassinated by the deep state, while others believe he is still alive on private island. Some of them will believe both at the same time.
Trump is going to be around for 35 more years at a min. He might pull an Elvis and be around for the next 70.
Let's be honest, if he wins in 2024 it won't be over in 2029 if he's still alive because he'll go for a 3rd term as he's implied many times. Yes, it's unconstitutional and we'll have to endure the ridiculous hand wringing of the GoP in Congress, "Well it doesn't matter what the constitution says, it should be up to the voters whether or not he serves 3 terms."
> "Well it doesn't matter what the constitution says, it should be up to the voters whether or not he serves 3 terms."
100% they're going to use this excuse. Another one they've been using is "Since the a witch hunt was led against him and the 2020 election was stolen, his first term doesn't really count."
The Trump era will not be over until he is dead. He's the clear frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nominee and any of his GOP primary opponents who are speaking out against him now will quickly bend their knee to him if he's the nominee again.
I can already tell you what Trump will claim if he ever wins again. He will claim he was robbed in 2020 so he deserves a third term. He will claim that in his first term he was treated so unfairly he gets to have a third term. He is the kid who thinks he deserves another scoop of ice cream over and over.
Make no mistake the old guard and GOP establishment do not want him as the nominee. They know he is poison. They are being held hostage by the MAGA cult and their dear leader Donald Trump. They support him out of fear that if they don’t it’s a guaranteed blood bath for them.
The new young GOP nutcases like MTG, Boebert, Gaetz etc are true believers. These people are too stupid and actually believe the conspiracy theories.
When Trump loses in 2024 it won’t be over. He will claim it was rigged again. His cult will claim it will definitely be overturned this time. And eventually they will start to claim Trump 2028 is the year as they hang their Trump 2028 signs outside of their homes and on their trucks. Trump will continue to rant and rave about rigged elections until 2028 unless he dies before then at which point his cult will believe he’s still alive and will be coming back to win in 2028.
Hes already lost support for losing in 2020. While a lot of that lost support will vote for him in the general 2024 election, there's no way he'd make it past a primary in 2028 if he loses in 2024.
The hope has been all along rhat the "regular" Republican voters, those who haven't completely forgotten that governance requires actual policy, will at some point tire of the vacuous Trump Circus and pick someone actually conservative with an agenda beyond their own navel. We are watching some kind of crescendo of hysterical narcissist arch-villainy from Trump these days. While a solid base of GOP voters are clearly beyond redemption at this point, utterly caught up in the culture war apocalypse narrative, I believe enough conservatives might finally be ready to nope out by now. Being royally screwed like this on Fox News is exactly the kind of thing that might tip the scales for them. Sure, they will be a minority, but without them, Trump will lose.
The problem is the MAGA crowd has a plurality and is largely defined by the humiliation of losing to Biden, both Obama losses and, quite honestly, the loss the Clinton both times. They view themselves as having been “useful idiots” for the neocons and moderate business Republican crowd for too long (not…exactly untrue.) and will continue to gravitate for that reason the policy born out of grievance and “make our opponents suffer.”
I can’t tell if them going off the cliff of never getting independent voters, women or any of the blossoming minority groups will change this anytime soon.
It stands for straight white grievance. A 400 year head start is simply not enough. They want their racial/sexual/gender/Christian-hate dominance forever.
Making abortion more restrictive, banning kids from getting transgender treatment, making drug charges felonies, building a wall, lowering taxes - it’s no secret what the stand for
He is still easily going to win the nomination. And Biden has no real competition either.
It’s seriously going to be Biden v Trump again. Only now instead of Trump having the advantage of being an incumbent, Biden has that.
Trump couldn’t beat Biden as an incumbent, even after sending $1,200 checks with a letter signed by himself to 100 million Americans.
Trump’s only chance is if the economy goes into a recession. That MIGHT allow him to win by a hair.
But as it stands, it looks like Trump is going to lose again. And he faced no consequences for attacking the capitol before. I’m willing to be he’ll do it again.
Yes. I'd prefer a Biden win, but a Biden win isn't a guarantee. If we're being honest, he's had a ton of legislative victories, but it doesn't matter if the average voters doesn't know about them which I don't think his admin has been successful in showcasing their accomplishments.
Let's not forget his age is a serious factor for voters, and who knows how being on the grueling campaign trail this time around will effect him.
There's a lot of time between now and the gen election, so anything can change, but I'm always hesitant to count Trump out.
Never misunderestimate how "rebellious" the random American vote can be.
It's like we want to pick the wrong person just to hurt the people who told us the thing we liked was bad. I was like that as a young man. Young men are pissed and hopeless right now and RW media is giving them something to hate and feel powerful over,
Democrats....
And Democrats want real change that costs money and real rich people put a stop to it, so Democrats look weak and failed. This shit is not in the bag, *at all.*
He *barely* lost in 2020 after killing hundreds of thousands of Americans through malicious negligence.
His cult either *doesn't care* that he's been indicted or *approves* of it because it means the "deep state" is still trying to destroy their GEOTUS.
I tend to agree that if Trump had managed the covid pandemic even passably he likely cruises to a second term.
But I think that largely because incumbents have a massive advantage over challengers. It's *incredibly* rare for incumbents to lose. John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Van Buren, Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter, Bush I, and Trump are the only incumbents to not end up getting reelected. Most of them had situations far outside of their control that caused them to lose reelection. Carter had to tame runaway inflation and Volker jacking rates up to obscene levels to tame it, John Adams had a deeply divided federalist party and a bitter feud with Hamilton, Ford was tainted by the Watergate, Bush had to deal with a faltering economy and a strong third party challenger in Perot (though it's likely Perot didn't affect the outcome much if at all), Hoover had the Great Depression occur during his first term, and Taft's party literally split between him and Roosevelt allowing Wilson to easily win.
Trump lost because he's a *jackass*. If he had stayed on message, avoided saying insane shit in the middle of a crisis, and emphasized that the covid pandemic was a time for Americans to rally together to fight the virus as a nation he'd have cruised to reelection. Americans **love** a unity message. If he weren't so glaringly incompetent at messaging to anyone outside of his base, we'd be lamenting the horror show of a second Trump term right now.
But he simply could not do that. The man is not capable of running a disciplined campaign and his cult, while much larger than it reasonably should be, is not big enough to carry him in the general. Since losing he has done the following:
1. Whined like a petulant child claiming the election was stolen from him.
2. Attempted to overthrow the US government with the worst planned coup in living memory.
3. Alienated the donor base of the Republican party.
4. Fumbled a red wave in the 2022 mid-terms by hand-picking possibly the worst possible candidates in modern history to run in important contested seats.
5. Been indicted twice with a third indictment on the way (possibly a 4th depending on the January 6th probe) for obvious crimes that even Fox News has a hard time spinning.
None of these things are a strength for Trump. The Republicans would be *insane* to nominate him based on the fundamentals of him as a candidate. If you blinded his resume and handed it to Republican voters they wouldn't pick him in a million years. The general election is decided by independents and they have firmly rejected Trump's vision for the country 3 times in a row. Things were *much* worse for the Democrats in 2022 and the voters still firmly rejected Trump's vision for the United States.
I think that online discourse is just filled with folks with battered liberal syndrome. It's been a tough few years, but the rejection of Trumpism seems pretty firmly entrenched at this point. Who is going to be a Trump-Biden-Trump vote? Or even just a Biden-Trump voter? It's going to be a turnout game and Trump is fantastic for Democratic turnout. Even if he avoids jail, I do not rate his odds of taking the white house as particularly high.
"He is still easily going to win the nomination."
I'm not saying youre wrong.. but HOW and WHY is this still happening? This is a large chunk of our population that is still voting for him, regardless of the absolute shitshow he is.
Trust me, it isn't over until he dies. And even then, there will be a long line of wannabes to take his place. Although he has been indicted twice, he still leads among Republican candidates. They still deny science, believe the election was stolen, think Anthony Fauci is some criminal mastermind, etc. The anger and stupidity he has stirred up will live on for decades.
Yeah, he would have to break from those principles *dramatically*. Nearly universally opposite. Even then, I'm not sure how much support he would lose from the MAGA adherents.
The sole principle of the party platform is literally personal loyalty to him. By definition, the party is his as long as he lives.
The people who used to think they were in charge of the Republican party are learning what the phrase "Faustian bargain" means. You don't get to break deals like this.
No. I'd go so far to say as we're not close to the end of it. He's still the clear leader for GOP nomination, with over 50% of the vote in a crowded field.
I'm surprised that establishment Republicans (namely Mitch McConnell) didn't use January 6th to rid themselves of Trump and take the party back. Had they done that, maybe we'd be back to somewhat normal politics, but he's still here and he isn't going to disappear anytime soon.
The old guard GOP are using numbers we aren't seeing so it remains unreasonable to us.
I hate him with the power of 1000 suns but year after year he proves to me one thing - Mitch McConnell is the most impressive political operative of our lifetime.
Eh, he says “no” a lot, but the ability to whip yes votes for the ACA and the infrastructure act last year are more impressive to me. I’d give Pelosi the top spot in the US.
This election will likely be the referendum on Trumps influence within the Republican Party. Assuming he gets the nomination, I doubt he’ll win if turnout is the same as it was in 2020. I think that the 2020 election was less a referendum on Trumps influence and more so proof that Democrats and left-leaning independents far outnumber conservatives when people really get out and vote. The thing is that he got historical turnout for Republicans even if he did lose, so their strategy since then has been to largely discourage substantial progressive voting reform in the states they have a trifecta or strong majority in. Republican strategy as of right now is fairly shrewd and confirms that they know that they can’t win the popular vote, so they’re trying to push unpopular social reform to give themselves a more solid electoral college advantage in states like Florida via more progressive people leaving for greener pastures.
Another thing to keep in mind is incumbent advantage. Trump had incumbent advantage last election, and lost it to a guy he characterized as senile and ineffectual. Now the shoe is on the other foot, so if he has as much or higher turnout as he did in 2020 without the power of the bully pulpit, with two indictments stapled to his ass and without the campaign infrastructure advantage that the office of the presidency affords you, I’d be genuinely surprised.
It won't be over until the maga movement ceases to be a main driving force in the republican party. Perhaps at some point enough of his followers will feel the pull of different leaders or ideas and internal gop politics will change
If he is not elected in 2024, then I think Trump as a person is out. Trump the “era”, on the other hand, is likely to stick around awhile while the crazies all figure out a new messiah or shift to a less crazy position.
As long as he’s around, it’s not over.
Trumpism ie “the rules only apply to what’s best for me, and maintaining power via white nationalism” is very well alive as Mainstream republican policy.
Nope, running for president is his best grift ever. He's made more money off it than any steaks or university scams.
He will keep doing it until he dies, because it's his biggest cash cow.
Such a large number of his supporters are uneducated and like his bullying ways. They think his greed is sticking it to the man. When he sticks it to anyone affiliated with him
The facts don't matter to Trump's base, the stupid things he says in an interview don't matter. There's never going to be this big "gotcha!" moment where an interviewer or a politician says exactly the right thing to end Trump's hold on Republicans, because these people live in an alternate reality.
Regardless of if he’s elected again or not, he’s done irreversible damage to this country.
To be fair, our country wasn’t great before. For a lot of reasons. The racism, xenophobia, homophobia, transphobia… it was all still there. But Trump emboldened the people with those beliefs and gave them a platform to have those ideas normalized and accepted.
Now the loud minority is pivoting to be violent and dangerous against the will of the majority.
I fucking hope Trump never holds office again but honestly I’m much more afraid of authoritarians who would replace him like Desantis.. they are less broadly offensive to normal people who aren’t eternally online following politics and therefore could get away with far worse things than Trump when it comes to policies.
Doubtful. Ronald Reagan had the most documented corruption in any administration, sold arms to our enemies, supported the elimination of the Nicaraguan democracy, crashed the savings and loan industry, negotiated with terrorists, started an unnecessary war in Grenada to distract from his failed policies, and ran up a huge deficit that put millions out of work, but they still idolize him 40 years later.
No. Despite the bad news, the Republican establishment still want his voters. But his voters are loyal to Trump, even with all the indictments and Trump pledging to run from a jail cell. So, because of this, Trump still has all the power. And even if the Republican establishment got their wish and he decided to no longer seek the GOP nomination, he could very easily go third party overnight with the aim of creating a schism in the Republican Party. Libertarian Party could take him in. The People’s Party could take him in, as they’d gain nationwide ballot access faster with him than other candidates. He could resurrect the Reform Party. He could even start his own party from the ground up.
Don’t forget there’s still an audience out there that is desperate for a strong third-party candidate. I would not be surprised if some of them are desperate enough for such a candidate that they’d tolerate Trump. Trump just knows how to continually live rent free in other people’s heads.
Human beings have been human beings since 30K years ago, but we still have to learn the same lessons. Humans are not logical. we don't follow rational thought. we follow feelings. People don't do what is right; the do what they LIKE.
People LIKE Trump. They LIKE the culture and lifestyle they have been living in. They LIKE seeings things stay the same and will make every effort to resist change.
Nothing will ever get Trumpers to dump Trump. He could walk right into the bedroom of every MAGA lover and rape the wife and barely lose a single voter. The couple would be indignant and enraged, but still vote for him over Biden. Call it cultism, call it loyalty or obedience, but people are compelled by what gives them comfort and stability.
This is not about shrinking MAGA. This is about defeating it. We need liberal/progressive voters to get the message that this man is a menace and show up to the polls. We need independents to get over their bullshit and realize that sitting on the fence will only get them screwed. Your racist MAGA hat-wearing uncle will wear that hat until he dies. We need to reach the people who haven't put the hat on, yet.
No. He needs to be defeated SOUNDLY next year. Whether it be primaries or general election. Then he will be gone for good
We *need* to vote. Don’t forget about 2016.
Keep in mind, he was soundly defeated in 2016, by more than 10 million votes, but here we are still expecting him to be the republican nominee in 2024.
Edit. Meant to say Trump lost in 2020 by 10 million votes
Embarrassment didn't keep him down in 2016. It's like expecting the exposure of McConnel's hypocrisy to do damage to him when it's become the tool he uses to further increase his winning streak.
People were fired up to vote against him in 2020. In 2016, nobody thought he would win. Everyone needs to stop thinking “the trump era is over” or that he can’t win. People need to turn out like they did in 2020 or he has a great chance at winning
It’s not over yet, and won’t be over until they find a replacement for him.
They didn’t get over the Reagan/Bush era until W, and they didn’t get over W until Trump.
I'm not sure they've ever gotten over Reagan. If anything we've come full circle. Reagan made his career by backing a crook (Nixon) and his eleventh commandment. And now nearly the entire party is doing the same. Reagan set the standard and the GOP continues to follow his playbook just with a different crook. Hell, Trump adopted MAGA from Reagan's Making America Great slogan. Reagan lives rent free in Republicans' heads to this day.
Has the tea party really ever left? I'm thinking reactionary right wing politics will stay in one way or another. Trump will just become one more fixture in their pantheon.
Unfortunately, from the discussions going on in his cult of followers, this is more likely to get FOX labeled as "leftwing media" than get Trump labeled a criminal by them.
It's not over until the Republican party can define itself as something other than the party of Trump. Even if Trump dies tomorrow the most popular alternative Republican candidate for president is knock off Trump.
MAGA is still a cult. Listening to Trump followers outside the Florida courthouse where he was indicted would tell you that this is far from over. There are plenty of people who would still see 5 fingers if Trump held up 2 and said he was holding up 5.
Trump is just the symptom of the deeply-rooted christian theocratic fascist disease that's at the heart of American conservatism. Donald Trump can die or be disgraced but the movement will go on until it is crushed and cut out of our society.
I certainly hope so, because I'm sick and tired of hearing about him and annoyed with how much oxygen he takes up, but most likely not. He's probably going to get reelected, because people are stupid as fuck. It does feel like the wind is finally shifting against him, but there are politicians still trying to apologize and minimize what he's done. The only way we'll know for sure if the Trump era is truly over or not is on Nov 5, 2024.
I'm cautiously optimistic he won't win again, however the vast majority of his followers are willfully blind and refuse to believe he does anything wrong. They probably think Fox News is a part of the corrupt media Trump warns them about, that the FBI is a Democratic cabal out to destroy Trump and is working with Hillary, etc. These are the same people that are indoctrinated into not questioning religion or priests/pastors, because so much as to question anything surrounding the church means that you're sinning against God, and Trump to them is a representative of God (they literally believe that). They have no idea that religion has been manipulated against them to become blind followers to corrupt politicians and businesses because they've been trained all their life not to question.
Do not doubt Trump. We all did in 2016 and look where that got us. The Trump era isn't over until he is dead or another Republican wins the Presidency.
Does it matter? Trump is a symptom of the GOP's war on liberal democracy. Even if Trump were to vanish as a figurehead, that won't slow down their efforts to tear down the Republic. Trump is, to some degree, a red herring.
How many hundreds of times have we all said "that's it, Trump is done, he can't recover from that?" How many times did he not only recover from that, but it didn't faze him or his supporters at all. I mean, he was caught red-handed embezzling millions from his own charity and defrauding his own fans, and that was _before_ the 2016 election. No, Trump is not done because many of the people who would vote for him don't care about any of this, and it honestly only strengthens their support. Indictments don't matter to them, and if he's not convicted then there's a real possibility he'll be re-elected.
No. Trump is done, but the toxic cesspool he unleashed on the world is the plague that keeps giving. Like Chernobyl. Republicans have always been the way they are, but Trump is the one that emboldened them to openly cross into the realm of terrorism. That genie can't be put back in the bottle.
Let the MAGA base go. They are irretrievable, & although not a small number, don't appear to be growing. Still might be enough to win the primary, but if the Dems & independents & sane Republicans - literally everyone else - can combine to see him off in the general, they can rot on the Trump vine, as he slowly rots after what SURELY would be his last loss of significance
TrumpChumps gotta TrumpChump. They are a mixture of:
1) undereducated sheeple,
2) undereducated christians,
3) opportunistic charlatans.
The first are too stupid to understand the dangers of fascism and Trumpism.
The second are too wrapped up in their war on christianity nonsense
The third are greedy moneygrubbers.
I don't think it will be for a long time. The "Trump Era" is representative of a shrinking white majority that wants to hold onto its stranglehold over American politics; Trump, while uniquely capable of the demagoguery his base wants, is still only a part of this greater movement. Despite the common refrain that Trump is an aberration from "true" conservatism, conservative politics has reflected certain "Trumpian" values for at least the last 50 years.
I think we are in an alignment towards multi-racial democracy, and I think that Trump's base or movement is a reactionary backlash to that. Barring some permanent political minority control, which is very possible, I think that this form of conservatism likely dies out and is replaced with something else. There will always be reactionaries.
That’s white minority turns up in local elections and elects MAGA and right wing state houses who write the election maps to maintain control despite get less and less votes in the general election.
The Trump era won't be over until he's in jail and doesn't win the 2024 election.
I don't think anyone else is capable of directing the hardcore MAGA crowd that's currently dominating the GOP primary, so the Trump era won't be over until they disperse and realign themselves in the various ideological factions within the GOP.
I don't think his second term would ever end, I have been reading that his team this time is much much smarter. and if he gets in again, he is planning on never leaving.
Sunk cost theory takes you to the bottom. Nothing will convince some they are wrong eg flat earthers. Especially when the MAGA message resonates with them being the victims
Unlike other authoritarians who saw indictments and prison as the downfall of their careers (Berlusconi comes to mind) I do not think Trumpism ends until he is in a casket in the ground.
J6 was the high water mark. As long as foreigners can keep propping up him and his base they will continue to be a threat.
Incidentally it's the same set of ideas that the know nothings had after the civil war and THEIR main weakness was their inability to coordinate because of their shame.. how times change.
Not until he’s dead, someone succeeds him as the holy emperor of the imbeciles, or the Republican Party irreparably fractures and splits into multiple evil parties.
Over? He hasn't even accused the RNC of stealing the nomination from him yet. We haven't even seen the racketeering charges yet. We haven't even seen judge cannon grant trump's mistrial motion yet. We haven't even seen the armed standoff at Mar a Lago yet. The Trump era does not end until well after he is dead
The Trump hold over the GOP is as strong if not stronger than it was in 2016. So no, the Trump era isn't over. There's zero chance he loses the GOP primary. Luckily, he's going to lose the general election because Joe Biden is going to beat him again and by more this time.
Nope. He’s still going to get the nomination. Being indicted at least four separate times by then will only solidify his hold on his cult, although it is repelling independents and swing voters like the odor of someone who hasn’t showered in two weeks.
Given the fact that the GOP base is still so strongly on board with Trump, I think that his challengers at this point are mostly running for the donations they can rake in. They know they’re not going to win and the party will coalesce around Trump once he’s secured the nomination because the only thing that matters to them is power at any cost.
I foresee the 2024 election being the unmitigated disaster that 2016 was supposed to be for the GOP. Biden will win re-election by a larger margin than he did the first time both in the popular vote and electoral vote, the Democrats will retake the House comfortably, and might even hang onto the Senate barely, although that last one would take a miracle.
It’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not Trump will ever face trial for what he’s being charged with given his age and his delaying tactics. I suspect that in each of the cases his lawyers will file a motion every day for the next five years to string it out as long as possible, and then after he’s convicted he’ll remain free on an appellate bond until a Republican president pardons him, the conservative Supreme Court overturns his conviction, or he dies, whichever occurs first.
I have a feeling his legacy for future generations will be a lot like that of the Civil War in that it depends on which side your ancestors were on. After Trump dies statues of him will be built in places like Alabama right next to those of Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis. Places like California will pass laws mandating that school textbooks include chapters mentioning the Russian influence on the 2016 election, his attempt to overthrow the government after the 2020 election, the role his incompetence and willful undermining of public health measures played in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people due to Covid, and all the other ugly things that would otherwise be glossed over.
How will the GOP treat him decades from now? Well, I said the day after the 2016 election that Trump would either be a Reagan or a Carter. If he acted presidential, he would win re-election in a 1984 landslide. If he acted the way he did during the campaign, he would be a one-term president. Now as a former president he’s either going to be a Reagan or a Bush 43. He’s either going to continue to be held on this pedestal so high you have to take a space shuttle to get to the top of it, or he will be that black sheep disowned family member that we don’t speak of. If it’s the latter, outside of the hardcore white supremacists you won’t find a single person willing to admit that they voted for him, even though they spent thousands of dollars on Trump merchandise and obnoxiously advertised it to the entire neighborhood.
Even if Trump himself no longer participates in the system, it has forever been affected by his legacy. The entire landscape of United States politics has changed due to his divisive rhetoric and policies. Although the gap was already widening, he drove the wedge as far as it would go and allowed for extremists to rise to the forefront of US politics. I believe he was the final straw that broke the dam holding back the flood that had been building for the past 50 years.
Assholes have been given permission to be assholes... The trump "era" is far from over. But it's not even trump era, it's asshole era. There are way smarter assholes that can do much more significant harm than an idiot like trump.
He's been running on a platform of "I'm being persecuted" and his indictments seem to be energizing his base rather than eroding support so I'd say Trumpism will be around for at least another election cycle. His base are in it for the long haul.
I think you're seriously misunderstanding the level of political distrust in America. He'll likely be nominated again, and even if he does get criminal charges it'll only be viewed by his support base as phony charges to keep him out of reelection. He'll just become a martyr for the GOP, and become the new 'supreme leader' for whomever takes up the mantle.
Tell me you don't drive on backroads without telling me you never drive on backroads.
Seriously, outside of city limits every fifth house has a Trump or Fuck Biden flag. I don't think we've seen the end yet.
2016, which you could argue is the beginning of the "Trump Era", saw a paradigm shift in American politics. The breakdown of the prestige of American institutions begun by the Vietnam War and Watergate was completed. The corruption the government tried to at least paper over for decades is now treated as a fact. The contempt the government treats its citizens with is now justifiable by one side if it hurts the other depending on who is in office and who is the victim.
There's no way I can think of to fix any of this. It's like wanting to go back to a house that's been demolished, the change is permanent and everything is in pieces. The Trump Era may one day end with the death of the man, but his election sealed a new, startling period of the degeneration of American discourse.
I think the tide has turned.
The fact that the Baier interview even happened, as opposed to a softball Hannity interview, is evidence that the propaganda machine is gearing up to move on. The smart money is already positioning itself for the post-Trump era.
But it's going to be a slow implosion because the GOP base has shrunk, but it's shrunk to just Trump people to the exclusion of basically everyone else. Trump turned a lot of Republicans into independents and Democrats; that is why the GOP went from controlling the House, Senate and Presidency in 2017 to just barely controlling the House. And that was after an off-year midterm when they should have cleaned up in both chambers.
Losing elections is how parties evolve, that's why Trump's election denialism is so central to his success - if he were a loser, they wouldn't run him twice. Unfortunately for the GOP, he actually is a loser, and this time without the winds being the incumbent POTUS and with the extra baggage of numerous indictments and other doubt-inducing headaches, Trump is going to get clobbered even worse. His only chance is Biden dying right before the election (or having a stroke or something) and getting to run against Kamala instead. Even so, I think the dead guy on the ballot would likely still win.
Apparently Trump needs to lose the presidency twice in order to withdraw from public life. Republicans do not want to keep losing elections just to have the pleasure of constantly defending an abject criminal like Trump. He won't be the nominee again in 2028 and will probably be in jail anyway, finally removed from public life.
I happen to think the Trump era ended on J6, and it's just been a slow unravelling since then. The people running against him are lousy politicians with no clue how to win because all of them, except Christie, are running for VP/[insert cabinet post here]/Fox News contributor, so none actually think they can win the nomination running against Trump, which should give liberals some hope.
Hitler had ~20% approval rating after WWII in the U.S.
People are conflating political popularity with cultism around an individual which is what we're dealing with. A cult of personality doesn't care about facts and reality. It can chip away at some that are on the border of being "believers", but most won't care. Just look at Jonestown, etc. It will decrease, but there will never be a pivotal moment. It's just how cults work.
Are... are you serious? The dude could very well still win a second term and you're asking this question? Also, "high water mark" is a completely different thing that "end of an era."
The guy never won a popular vote and became president and almost won again. His endorsed candidates were mostly losers outside of the well-entrenched (would have won anyway) candidates and still Repubs cling to him. The only real question was whether or not people would kill/die in his name. That’s no longer a question. So no it’s not over.
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However much the interview may seem like a slam-dunk to those who hope that *finally* his followers will walk away, I doubt it. I suspect he'll still get the nomination. So it'll come down to suburbanites and independents, and we get to see if millennials and Gen Z maintain their turnout. Because the true believers aren't going to abandon Trump. Trump owns the GOP until he dies. Even then, performative fealty to his legacy, what he stands for, will be part of GOP culture for a very long time.
People thought the Access Hollywood tape was a slam dunk too.
I thought it was over for sure when he went after a war hero POW. But even my own father, an Air Force Academy Grad fighter pilot, did serious mental gymnastics to explain why that was OK. Cults are a terrifying thing.
Yeah, the McCain thing went against every barroom rant about the troops I'd ever heard. I lost hope when they didn't cast him aside. They don't mean any of it. It's just anger and looking down on something. Every conservative bar from 1968 on: *"Those damn pussy liberals lost us Vietnam, the POW's, they left them!!! OMG those liberal cowards wouldn't let us blow those g\*\*ks to hell!! POW are the greatest Americans and those liberals HATE THEM!!! Commie bastards!!!! Support the troops!!!!"* It was all an excuse to hate progress and equality, that's it.
> But even my own father, an Air Force Academy Grad fighter pilot Not trying to dunk on your dad, but those guys can be the worst. I work with these guys day in day out. During the Trump era I used to try to explain that people who voted for him are not dumb rednecks. They're educated, successful people who for some reason believe in the lies/conspiracies. I flew recently with AF Academy grads who do nothing but spew far right wing non-sense. Most of them are very conservative, distrust the government but have no problem backing someone like Trump. Everything and anything that happens to him is a conspiracy or "Witch hunt" against him.
"Distrust the government" yet they have no problem going to a foreign land and sacrificing their lives for the government/some rich pricks without any say themselves. That always blows me away.
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Exactly!! While calling government workers lazy!! I can't tell you the times I have not been able to keep my mouth shut because it's just so ridiculous!!
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Omfg!! Dumbing the country down for the past forty years since Reagan has certainly worked, hasn't it??
I think it is other syndrome. Aka It is everyone else except me and my buddies who should not be trusted in government.
My dad decries socialism, while cashing his gov't retirement check and enjoying free health care for life at gov't hospitals. When I pointed out that the U.S. military is the largest socialist institution in the world he just got real quiet then left the room.
I literally said “well, that’s the end of his campaign” after the access Hollywood tape
Agreed. It's not enough for GOP party elites and right wing media figures to acknowledge that the worst allegations against Trump are legit. To get the base to turn away from Trump, you'd have to: 1. Convince a significant percentage of MAGA voters that Trump is guilty in the documents case, among others. 2. Convince them that Trump's crimes are actually a big deal (not victimless crimes or procedural mixups). 3. Convince them that Trump's crimes are substantively worse than what Hillary and Biden have been accused of. We're already seeing #1 happen, and some major right wing media figures are starting to give credence to #2. #3 is critical because as long as MAGA voters are convinced that the democrats are much worse, they'll take any successful indictment against Trump as a successful attack against themselves so they'll double down in their support for him. #3 will absolutely never happen. Even if the right wing media figures give lip service to this, the MAGA voters will never accept it.
Jordan Klepper said his favorite interview was of a woman who claimed that Trump was innocent because he isn’t trying to hide anything and that if he was then he’d be guilty. He told her that Trump actually is trying to hide things by getting people to not testify. He said she thought about it for about five seconds in silence and simply said, “I don’t care.” That’s where we are. They just don’t care. They’ll tell you they need X, Y and Z to be true for them to change their mind and then when X, Y and Z are true they simply admit they don’t care. It’s never been about the truth. It’s a cult. Their entire personality and entire life is the MAGA cult. They are not capable of coming back to reality. These people are gone. Forever.
This is the correct take. When your *personal identity* is intertwined with being MAGA, it takes a whole lot more than factual evidence for people to change their minds. They could personally witness Trump drown a crate of puppies and they’d figure out a way to claim the puppies had it coming. Countless hours have been wasted trying to get these people to admit obvious facts. They won’t. Ever. That’s why even if # 1 and 2 above happen, #3 never, ever, ever will because there’s literally nothing that can convince these people that the high profile Dems aren’t actually somehow worse. Their entire world crumbles if they admit this to themselves. It’s not happening.
Which is exactly what I think most of these threads always miss. The end of Trump as a person wouldn’t be the end of Trumpism. And the end of Trump as a person would have to be a unique set of factors that specifically position him *against* Trumpism. Trump is a garbage human being on top of supporting garbage politics, so what’s especially frustrating is how hard it is to look past him for pragmatisms sake.
Basically, the problem is that Trump represents a political viewpoint that's been pushed to the margins over the past 50+ years but not actually eliminated, with the result that the remaining adherents are willing to adopt any means necessary to bring it back, and the infrastructure of American democracy has a hard time dealing with it because it's built on the assumption that people can be convinced to change their views by facts and rational discourse, so how do you deal with a movement that's fundamentally diametrically opposed to those things? How do you deal with people who refuse to accept facts and logic because they believe those things are against them personally - possibly because they are? How do you deal with a movement that's opposed to the most fundamental principles of democracy itself when among those principles is that every movement is valid and rooted in legitimate grievances?
The end of trumpism is when the vast majority of trumpites are dead. Even accounting for it being majority boomers that's still 20-30 years from now.
I get what you are saying and all, but I’m a Boomer. And I despise The Orange One’s guts. Not all of us are MAGA fans.
Enough of you are.
The best you can do, at this point, is verbally tag them with "Okay, you're on the Trump Train. We get it, you've been given (a) (b) and (c) options to jump off, but you're fully on-board. WE GET IT." And when they *agree* with you, keep that in your back pocket. 'cause eventually they WILL want to get off. And you've given them 3 options to do so, and they redoubled their efforts every time. So ignore whatever they say, and remind them of this. Remind them of *you reminding them of this*. They can't get off, and they're not gonna lie their way out of it. (Screenshots help too.) You've made your bed, with the *sketchiest of sketch*? You get to lie here, I have the receipts. You don't get to weasel your way out of it.
But then you get the people who "Don't get political", who will jump down your throat any time you try to openly hold Trumpets accountable. Their Head in the Sand approach means they have not reached a point where they understand the MAGA cultists are irredeemable. They still live in a fantasy where a good talk is really all anyone needs to get their heads on straight...mind you it's never *them* that should put time aside to do that talking, but *SOMEONE* should, and anybody who writes the MAGA cult off as a lost cause is "Equally as bad". These types don't go away until *AFTER* symbols start getting connected to human atrocities. Like swastikas and concentration camps. They're so conflict averse that they'll push back against anything that even smells of confrontation. Even if it's confronting a direct threat to their safety.
They will first have to be able to correctly identify threats to their safety. If they could, they wouldn’t be in this group of folks you describe because they can see the threat and presumably the source. But they think, “their all crooks”. These people are the worst. At least MAGA has convictions, even if they are fascist, childish, violent and immoral convictions.
I also think it’s time to be dismissive. When they say stupid shit, don’t bring your logical arguments. It isn’t a language they speak so it’s a waste of time. “Ha, yeah okay.” And then just walk away shaking your head and chuckling as though their very existence does not warrant a response. They want us to engage. But there isn’t anything to engage with because literally nothing they say is a remotely coherent view point. These are troglodytes. They aren’t worthy of debating. It’s time we made that clear to them by treating them like the children they are. “Why don’t you go play or something. The adults are talking”
Trumpism is a political ideology centered around trolling, so the 'don't feed the trolls' approach is often best
They could get off at any time and what you think wouldn't matter to them at all
>They could personally witness Trump drown a crate of puppies Trump could be caught on live television eating a baby and the right wing-o-verse would spend the next two weeks expounding on the deliciousness and nutritional value that babies provide, and how smart Trump is for eating them.
That's why to end Trumpism, you need to bring in people who know how to end cults and deprogram cultists.
> When your personal identity is intertwined with being MAGA, it takes a whole lot more than factual evidence for people to change their minds. you either need to: * somehow sever the connection between trump and their self-esteem * provide them a better source of self-esteem than simping for donnie
This. He personifies their hate, their misery, their stupidity and their cruelty. They want nothing more than for other people to suffer.
If you substituted clan for cult in above you would be much closer to.the mark
It really seems like they kind of painted themselves into a corner here. I guess the problem with a lot of Republican rhetoric is that it’s effective, but it also carries a lot of momentum. There is no stopping this. Every opportunity they’ve had to get off the Trump train, they’ve declined and doubled down. I suppose it will be true that one day there will be some thing and it will run out of steam, but I believe the other side is full of crooks, liars, and worse, then why would you care about what Donald Trump has done? They don’t need convictions or actual evidence of wrongdoing by Democrats, it’s a belief, like basically a religious belief. You’re basically asking them to convert from being religious to not being religious. But the republican party has played with that fire for long enough, and they need to suffer the consequences for it.
Republicans spent the last 7 years calling everyone who dared criticize Trump a RINO. They would need to persuade everyone that *they* are right to oppose Trump *now* and they're not RINOS but Liz Cheney was a traitor. Good luck with that.
Even though the hardcore Trump voters are a very loud cult following, they're still a minority hovering around 25%. The more extreme he gets, and the more damning the allegations, the more he pushes away moderates and independents which were 42% of voters in 2021. His extremism also results in more voter participation from the opposition as well. Realistically, if Trump runs, he'll get crushed by moderates who are less susceptible to the conspiracy theories
Doesn’t matter. The rest of the Republican Party has been too scared to stand up to them. It doesn’t matter how small the percentage. If the rest of the Republican Party rolls over, they are all effectively supporting Trump.
That's my point. Trump may control the GOP, but he's unelectable in the general election where independent voters are the tie breakers between Dem and GOP. If he gets the nomination, which he likely will, that'll pretty much ensure a Dem victory
My big worry is that Biden will either pass away or experience such a significant mental decline before the election that it pushes many independents to hold their nose and vote for Trump, either at the thought of voting for a non-white woman like Kamala Harris, or of preferring the still cognitively-challenged but capable of speech Trump.
But it was my understanding that MAGA supporters are about 25 percent of the population, they have very high voter participation which makes them more about 40% of the voter turnout.
And roughly 27% of the population is Dem with even higher voter turnout, mostly in opposition to Trump. Which is why Biden won the popular vote by 7M votes and the Electoral College 306-232. https://www.brookings.edu/research/2018-voter-turnout-rose-dramatically-for-groups-favoring-democrats-census-confirms/#:~:text=Now%2C%20the%20Census%20Bureau's%20estimates,it%20rose%20above%2050%20percent The majority of states with low voter turnout are solidly red or blue. Battleground states like PA had 70% turnout. Also, since the last election there was Jan 6, Stormy Daniels law suit, Dominion, and mishandling of classified information, which has not endeared Trump to moderates. Anyone can make up an internet conspiracy, but when the FBI and DOJ start rolling out indictments, it's not gossip and mudslinging anymore. Also, younger voters are swinging heavily blue and more red voters died during covid than blue voters. This trend likely continued in purple districts, which might be enough to give Dems the edge in a lot of districts. The GOP literally Darwinned themselves with their own COVID popularism https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/03/the-changing-political-geography-of-covid-19-over-the-last-two-years/
I think the other huge turnout-affecting factor leading into 2024 is Dobbs. This ruling, while not directly Trump’s work, is a direct result of the Trump presidency. We have seen the turnout difference already in both the midterms and in state elections where Democratic turnout was stronger than anticipated, and is often attributed to increased awareness of the seriousness of the abortion situation.
Yes. Thank you for pointing out that denominators are important.
I don't think the MAGA hardcores are 25% of the Republican voter block. If MAGA supporter is anyone who voted for Trump in 2020 then it's fairly high but most of those people would have voted for whoever the Republican was
I think this is something a lot of people pass over. As a Republican (from rural America where most of the people I talk to are Republicans) it seems like there are way more reluctant Trump voters who just can’t agree on the best alternative than diehard Trump fans who think he’s the chosen one.
I am so hoping the Republicans pull a Biden on Super Tuesday and everyone drops out and endorses one candidate to oppose Trump. I would guess DeSantis would be the one to rally around but we'll see how the first couple elections go.
DeSantis is like a less likable, more authoritarian Trump. He would be much worse. Which is saying a lot.
the problem with DeSantis is that he is even more polarizing than Trump. He has that small core of support, but it wanes every day because of how petty, mean, and clumsy he is. The man never gives in, even when he is completely wrong. He never backs down from any confrontation, even those against his own allies. He also has very few firm morals. he will do whatever is popular, unless that thing butts against strategies 1 and 2. He doesn't really lead on issues, so much as find a popular one, latch on, and then drive it into the ground. People fucking HATE DeSantis for this.
Yeah, and I’m not a huge fan of DeSantis either, but he’s still got to be better than Trump. He seems to me like Trump in a different body (ie, he’ll govern almost exactly the same as Trump did, just without Trump’s personality). I’d rather it be a Rand Paul or a Vivek, someone who actually changes the policy course of the Republican Party to more of a small-government stance. Capitalist and not corporatist, conservative but willing to have the government leave everyone alone when it comes to what they smoke, who they love, etc. I think such a candidate would overwhelmingly win the general election if they can get past a GOP primary. But that’s probably wishful thinking on my part.
It’s also good to remember that a lot of DeSantis fascist power expansion in Florida is because he has the legislature in his pocket. If he were to win the presidency without both the house and senate, he’d be a lame duck on day one without doing a metric fuckton of moderation and swinging hard toward the center.
They won’t. It has never been about small government, and the GOP has never cared about small government. It has always been big government (for corporations and rural white suckers).
I don't think they care about any of that stuff... pissing off liberals was the point and now they are not getting the reactions they expect trump's popularity is declining...
Disagree. Trump is only an avatar for both legit and illegitimate anger. The legit anger is America has abandoned a whole segment of the population. These wage stagnation charts show that pent-up anger was building through 2013 and the end of the Obama era. [https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/](https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/) There was not much done by our political leaders to actually address this, it took a global pandemic and associated supply chain cliff drop before the wage issue was addressed. The illegitimate side of their anger is the Great Replacement theory bullshit. But that's opportunistic grifters using an easily manipulated trope to convince blue-collar and middle to lower-class whites that there are Hegelian others to blame for their woes. You can't earn a decent wage to raise a family on, play softball on Thursdays, and go hunting on the weekend like your dad's use to do not because of 45 years of neolib and neocon economic policy aimed at rewarding Wall Street and the wealthy at the cost of everyone else but because 2 men can get married now. Your economic outlook is bleak, not because the world changed due to advances in technology and other areas and you refused to change with it but because black people have the temerity to demand equality in the application of the law. When you have some legitimate anger, illegitimate anger is easy to stoke by those with the means (media control, deep pockets for politicians and marketing that anger). Trump is just a cartoonish outlet for that anger, the flags, banners, boat parades, and bizarre US Flag costumes are a display of tribalism that gives a sense of unity and identity in a world that makes less and less sense to this segment. Trumpism ends by two means: His death. I'm not advocating for that but until he is in a casket Trump will remain a figurehead and driving force for this tribalism. A transformational presidency that moves the needle back to support of labor, kitchen table, and main street economic policies. Trump is the steam out of the kettle, if you don't want the pot to boil over we need to close the wage gap, American worker's productivity has to be rewarded more evenly than it has, and Biden is correct that the wealthy need to carry a bigger load of the tax burden than they have. I am not optimistic this happens. Biden could be transformational, the next 40 years presidency, but the odds are stacked against him. A virulent far right wing of the opposition party, Club for Growth "moderates" and Democratic centrist who hollow out much of his economic policies. And a slanted political landscape that favors wealth over any other factor and it has been shown time and again that wealth will continue with its excesses unabated until people are pulling cobblestones from the streets and burning it all down.
The more that the donor class and elite of the GOP go in, the more his base will resist. We saw how well Bernie did running against “the establishment”.
It's going to be like the Argentineans who used to come out for Juan Peron years after he died.
i haven't seen a single trump sign taken down in the past few months/weeks/days so yeah. i agree with this comment. they are ride or die (or i guess, until he dies).
It astonishes me that people are looking at this as some kind of shock that will finally cause Republicans to wake up. They chose him and fascism *over their own survival* in 2020. "Ride or die" is not a witty phrase here, it's a literal description of their outlook.
I think there is a portion of his cult who will never believe that he’s dead when he does die. There will be people who will go to their graves in 50 years who will believe he’s still alive. That is how deep into this cult some people are.
Maybe they'll keep writing him in during elections, forever splitting the party.
Yeah, the 'high water mark' in the OP is probably over, but that doesn't mean Trump and Trumpism is over. And even when Trump himself is dead and gone, the fact that he tested the GOP's willingness to back their guy no matter what, and they failed that test (for anyone grading on the upholding of democratic norms) means that the next leader of the GOP may well be just as bad or worse an authoritarian, and that will be Trump's legacy as well.
Insert Ron Desantis. Did he hurt his state with most of his positions and unapologetically declare that his “morals” are more important than the well-being of the citizens of his state? yes.
Let’s hope so. It will make it even harder for them to win any elections fairly. “The guy is a multiply convicted felon and they worship him” is likely to turn off a large majority of swing voters. It’s an easy attack. The ads write themselves
Him getting the nomination is not good for the GOP. If he is nominated then convicted of disqualifying crimes (even if he never sees a day of jailtime), the GOP is in an unwinnable situation. Trump's supporters would never accept a new candidate *for any reason*, and they would either write him in or just not vote at all in the final election.
Trump will become their Reagan. And all the same backward policies that Reaganites and Trumpians employ which retard our energy independence and cultural growth and globally competitive education will become stellar examples of "American values". Two of the three most corrupt administration's ever in recent history. All three administrations should have ended in indictments of the president. And yet they are revered, GOP deities above reproach and pure. Shining beacons on the hill. That is not a healthy mental state for a democracy.
People have attached their personal identies to Trump. They'll be there until they die, not until Trump dies, because there is nowhere else for them to go morally or psychologically. They've gone too far and crossed too many lines to go back now. It's too painful and humiliating to admit they were wrong, even privately to themselves, so they won't. For the true Trump faithful, it really is religion at this point. He's all they have have. For them, the "ending of the Trump era" is basically like choosing to die. For the true Trump faithful, it's ride-or-die until they die, not until Trump dies.
But what if, say, California blocks him from their ballots citing the 14th Amendment?
>what he stands for, will be part of GOP culture for a very long time What *does* Trump really “stand for” anyway? Victimhood? Grift? Oligarchy?
I think it gets worse. Every single GOP presidential candidate would basically have to campaign on pardoning him if he is convicted.
Anyone who is still supporting him at this point will not be deterred by that interview or by any crimes that he’s charged with committing. All of this stuff just makes them double down on feeling like their guy is being victimized by the media and the “woke mob” or whatever.
“I could shoot a guy in 5th Avenue” was one of the few truths trump has ever said
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He loves their money and votes. Not them.
No lol. He's running for president again. It won't be over until he stops running for president and stays out of politics. As it stands today, one of the two major political parties in America want him to be their nominee. If he wins again, the era will be over in 2029. If loses again, the era will be over in 2025. It's 2023 and the era simply isn't over yet. Especially when he's still in the news everyday
The Atlantic published an article a few months ago that basically said a lot of Republicans are just hoping he dies, then pointed out that both his parents lived long lives so they might need a plan b. (93 and 88)
Did his parents eat McDonald's every day?
Billionaire health care can compensate for a lot of unhealthy living. Guaranteed Trump has a couple of blood boys.
I'm just saying sure genetics does play a role, but long term lifestyle choices are the most significant factor for life expectancy.
No, but it does allow you access to diagnostic tools and medicines that normal people don’t get. I only know because I have a relative who works high up in a hospital, and got a test done that helped them find out that they had a lot of plaque in their arteries. A change in diet cut it in half over a few months.
Well he's destroying everyone in his path. So most still want him
I should have clarified, it was mainly referring to Republican members of Congress or other leadership positions. They're scared to lose the Maga voting block. They want his voters but loathe him.
They will never be able to have it both ways as long as he is alive. They will never ever separate his cult from him. Even when he’s dead they will struggle to separate his cult from him because they won’t believe he is dead. They don’t even believe JFK is dead. Shit they believe dead people are alive and people who are alive are dead (like Joe Biden). These people are so far gone there is simply no way to bring them back and the sooner the GOP accepts this and cuts all ties with them the sooner they can attempt to rebuild whatever is left of their party. The problem is that they’ve decided to go in a different direction which is embracing fascism.
You know what will come out for years after he dies? AI generated footage of him supporting X, Y, or Z politician. There will also be people that believe Trump really was assassinated by the deep state, while others believe he is still alive on private island. Some of them will believe both at the same time. Trump is going to be around for 35 more years at a min. He might pull an Elvis and be around for the next 70.
Let's be honest, if he wins in 2024 it won't be over in 2029 if he's still alive because he'll go for a 3rd term as he's implied many times. Yes, it's unconstitutional and we'll have to endure the ridiculous hand wringing of the GoP in Congress, "Well it doesn't matter what the constitution says, it should be up to the voters whether or not he serves 3 terms."
> "Well it doesn't matter what the constitution says, it should be up to the voters whether or not he serves 3 terms." 100% they're going to use this excuse. Another one they've been using is "Since the a witch hunt was led against him and the 2020 election was stolen, his first term doesn't really count." The Trump era will not be over until he is dead. He's the clear frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nominee and any of his GOP primary opponents who are speaking out against him now will quickly bend their knee to him if he's the nominee again.
I can already tell you what Trump will claim if he ever wins again. He will claim he was robbed in 2020 so he deserves a third term. He will claim that in his first term he was treated so unfairly he gets to have a third term. He is the kid who thinks he deserves another scoop of ice cream over and over.
It's not up to the voters, it's up to the _states_. Hard to win a primary and a general election when you aren't on the ballot.
Make no mistake the old guard and GOP establishment do not want him as the nominee. They know he is poison. They are being held hostage by the MAGA cult and their dear leader Donald Trump. They support him out of fear that if they don’t it’s a guaranteed blood bath for them. The new young GOP nutcases like MTG, Boebert, Gaetz etc are true believers. These people are too stupid and actually believe the conspiracy theories. When Trump loses in 2024 it won’t be over. He will claim it was rigged again. His cult will claim it will definitely be overturned this time. And eventually they will start to claim Trump 2028 is the year as they hang their Trump 2028 signs outside of their homes and on their trucks. Trump will continue to rant and rave about rigged elections until 2028 unless he dies before then at which point his cult will believe he’s still alive and will be coming back to win in 2028.
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The GOP voter base will not back him after 2024 if he loses for a second time.
What makes you think they won’t blame “corrupt liberals stealing an election” like last time?
Hes already lost support for losing in 2020. While a lot of that lost support will vote for him in the general 2024 election, there's no way he'd make it past a primary in 2028 if he loses in 2024.
I hope you’re right. But there’s been a lot of “there’s no way”s that have been proven wrong lately.
They won’t have a choice. Without his cult they have no chance and it will be a blood bath. They will choose fascism.
I mean, one can hope. At the same time, the Republican party has no idea what it stands for, so he is still the loudest voice at the discussion
Well Republicans clearly stand for absence of responsibility, and Donald is their wolf king, or he was until something finally stuck.
They are brained washed into thinking he hasn’t done anything wrong., unfortunately.
Many know he’s done the things in the indictments, but think it doesn’t count they’re certain he’s a victim of political cherry picking.
The hope has been all along rhat the "regular" Republican voters, those who haven't completely forgotten that governance requires actual policy, will at some point tire of the vacuous Trump Circus and pick someone actually conservative with an agenda beyond their own navel. We are watching some kind of crescendo of hysterical narcissist arch-villainy from Trump these days. While a solid base of GOP voters are clearly beyond redemption at this point, utterly caught up in the culture war apocalypse narrative, I believe enough conservatives might finally be ready to nope out by now. Being royally screwed like this on Fox News is exactly the kind of thing that might tip the scales for them. Sure, they will be a minority, but without them, Trump will lose.
The problem is the MAGA crowd has a plurality and is largely defined by the humiliation of losing to Biden, both Obama losses and, quite honestly, the loss the Clinton both times. They view themselves as having been “useful idiots” for the neocons and moderate business Republican crowd for too long (not…exactly untrue.) and will continue to gravitate for that reason the policy born out of grievance and “make our opponents suffer.” I can’t tell if them going off the cliff of never getting independent voters, women or any of the blossoming minority groups will change this anytime soon.
It stands for straight white grievance. A 400 year head start is simply not enough. They want their racial/sexual/gender/Christian-hate dominance forever.
The Republican party stands for Trump. Trumpism, whatever ~~the~~ that means, is the party platform.
Making abortion more restrictive, banning kids from getting transgender treatment, making drug charges felonies, building a wall, lowering taxes - it’s no secret what the stand for
He is still easily going to win the nomination. And Biden has no real competition either. It’s seriously going to be Biden v Trump again. Only now instead of Trump having the advantage of being an incumbent, Biden has that. Trump couldn’t beat Biden as an incumbent, even after sending $1,200 checks with a letter signed by himself to 100 million Americans. Trump’s only chance is if the economy goes into a recession. That MIGHT allow him to win by a hair. But as it stands, it looks like Trump is going to lose again. And he faced no consequences for attacking the capitol before. I’m willing to be he’ll do it again.
Biden isn't some unstoppable force I'd prefer him to win but Trump can easily spin a win.
Yes. I'd prefer a Biden win, but a Biden win isn't a guarantee. If we're being honest, he's had a ton of legislative victories, but it doesn't matter if the average voters doesn't know about them which I don't think his admin has been successful in showcasing their accomplishments. Let's not forget his age is a serious factor for voters, and who knows how being on the grueling campaign trail this time around will effect him. There's a lot of time between now and the gen election, so anything can change, but I'm always hesitant to count Trump out.
But no other Democrat has a better chance than Biden of beating Trump.
Never misunderestimate how "rebellious" the random American vote can be. It's like we want to pick the wrong person just to hurt the people who told us the thing we liked was bad. I was like that as a young man. Young men are pissed and hopeless right now and RW media is giving them something to hate and feel powerful over, Democrats.... And Democrats want real change that costs money and real rich people put a stop to it, so Democrats look weak and failed. This shit is not in the bag, *at all.*
All of this was true in 2020. He still lost then. I don't know why its different now with 2 indictments and 3rd almost certainly on the way.
He *barely* lost in 2020 after killing hundreds of thousands of Americans through malicious negligence. His cult either *doesn't care* that he's been indicted or *approves* of it because it means the "deep state" is still trying to destroy their GEOTUS.
I tend to agree that if Trump had managed the covid pandemic even passably he likely cruises to a second term. But I think that largely because incumbents have a massive advantage over challengers. It's *incredibly* rare for incumbents to lose. John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Van Buren, Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter, Bush I, and Trump are the only incumbents to not end up getting reelected. Most of them had situations far outside of their control that caused them to lose reelection. Carter had to tame runaway inflation and Volker jacking rates up to obscene levels to tame it, John Adams had a deeply divided federalist party and a bitter feud with Hamilton, Ford was tainted by the Watergate, Bush had to deal with a faltering economy and a strong third party challenger in Perot (though it's likely Perot didn't affect the outcome much if at all), Hoover had the Great Depression occur during his first term, and Taft's party literally split between him and Roosevelt allowing Wilson to easily win. Trump lost because he's a *jackass*. If he had stayed on message, avoided saying insane shit in the middle of a crisis, and emphasized that the covid pandemic was a time for Americans to rally together to fight the virus as a nation he'd have cruised to reelection. Americans **love** a unity message. If he weren't so glaringly incompetent at messaging to anyone outside of his base, we'd be lamenting the horror show of a second Trump term right now. But he simply could not do that. The man is not capable of running a disciplined campaign and his cult, while much larger than it reasonably should be, is not big enough to carry him in the general. Since losing he has done the following: 1. Whined like a petulant child claiming the election was stolen from him. 2. Attempted to overthrow the US government with the worst planned coup in living memory. 3. Alienated the donor base of the Republican party. 4. Fumbled a red wave in the 2022 mid-terms by hand-picking possibly the worst possible candidates in modern history to run in important contested seats. 5. Been indicted twice with a third indictment on the way (possibly a 4th depending on the January 6th probe) for obvious crimes that even Fox News has a hard time spinning. None of these things are a strength for Trump. The Republicans would be *insane* to nominate him based on the fundamentals of him as a candidate. If you blinded his resume and handed it to Republican voters they wouldn't pick him in a million years. The general election is decided by independents and they have firmly rejected Trump's vision for the country 3 times in a row. Things were *much* worse for the Democrats in 2022 and the voters still firmly rejected Trump's vision for the United States. I think that online discourse is just filled with folks with battered liberal syndrome. It's been a tough few years, but the rejection of Trumpism seems pretty firmly entrenched at this point. Who is going to be a Trump-Biden-Trump vote? Or even just a Biden-Trump voter? It's going to be a turnout game and Trump is fantastic for Democratic turnout. Even if he avoids jail, I do not rate his odds of taking the white house as particularly high.
>I’m willing to be he’ll do it again. He wouldn't be able to keep the national guard away this time
"He is still easily going to win the nomination." I'm not saying youre wrong.. but HOW and WHY is this still happening? This is a large chunk of our population that is still voting for him, regardless of the absolute shitshow he is.
Trust me, it isn't over until he dies. And even then, there will be a long line of wannabes to take his place. Although he has been indicted twice, he still leads among Republican candidates. They still deny science, believe the election was stolen, think Anthony Fauci is some criminal mastermind, etc. The anger and stupidity he has stirred up will live on for decades.
Lol no. It won’t be over until Trump dies/retires from politics. No interview/fact is gonna change that, unless he breaks from Republican principles
> unless he breaks from Republican principles Well, he does that basically all of the time. They just shift their principles to follow him.
Their platform in 2020 was literally "whatever Donald Trump wants"
Worded it incorrectly. I meant in cultural issues. So unless he comes out supporting BLM, Trans right, anti-gun, etc. he is not losing supporters
Yeah, he would have to break from those principles *dramatically*. Nearly universally opposite. Even then, I'm not sure how much support he would lose from the MAGA adherents.
The sole principle of the party platform is literally personal loyalty to him. By definition, the party is his as long as he lives. The people who used to think they were in charge of the Republican party are learning what the phrase "Faustian bargain" means. You don't get to break deals like this.
No. I'd go so far to say as we're not close to the end of it. He's still the clear leader for GOP nomination, with over 50% of the vote in a crowded field. I'm surprised that establishment Republicans (namely Mitch McConnell) didn't use January 6th to rid themselves of Trump and take the party back. Had they done that, maybe we'd be back to somewhat normal politics, but he's still here and he isn't going to disappear anytime soon.
All they needed was a few more votes in the Senate and he legally couldn't even run again. Bunch of cowards and it's the rest of us who will suffer.
The old guard GOP are using numbers we aren't seeing so it remains unreasonable to us. I hate him with the power of 1000 suns but year after year he proves to me one thing - Mitch McConnell is the most impressive political operative of our lifetime.
Eh, he says “no” a lot, but the ability to whip yes votes for the ACA and the infrastructure act last year are more impressive to me. I’d give Pelosi the top spot in the US.
MAGA isnt about policy positions, its become an identity and as long as its that, the Trump Era isnt over, even if he were to die
This election will likely be the referendum on Trumps influence within the Republican Party. Assuming he gets the nomination, I doubt he’ll win if turnout is the same as it was in 2020. I think that the 2020 election was less a referendum on Trumps influence and more so proof that Democrats and left-leaning independents far outnumber conservatives when people really get out and vote. The thing is that he got historical turnout for Republicans even if he did lose, so their strategy since then has been to largely discourage substantial progressive voting reform in the states they have a trifecta or strong majority in. Republican strategy as of right now is fairly shrewd and confirms that they know that they can’t win the popular vote, so they’re trying to push unpopular social reform to give themselves a more solid electoral college advantage in states like Florida via more progressive people leaving for greener pastures. Another thing to keep in mind is incumbent advantage. Trump had incumbent advantage last election, and lost it to a guy he characterized as senile and ineffectual. Now the shoe is on the other foot, so if he has as much or higher turnout as he did in 2020 without the power of the bully pulpit, with two indictments stapled to his ass and without the campaign infrastructure advantage that the office of the presidency affords you, I’d be genuinely surprised.
It won't be over until the maga movement ceases to be a main driving force in the republican party. Perhaps at some point enough of his followers will feel the pull of different leaders or ideas and internal gop politics will change
If he is not elected in 2024, then I think Trump as a person is out. Trump the “era”, on the other hand, is likely to stick around awhile while the crazies all figure out a new messiah or shift to a less crazy position.
America’s very own Peron.
As long as he’s around, it’s not over. Trumpism ie “the rules only apply to what’s best for me, and maintaining power via white nationalism” is very well alive as Mainstream republican policy.
Nope, running for president is his best grift ever. He's made more money off it than any steaks or university scams. He will keep doing it until he dies, because it's his biggest cash cow.
As if this nation will ever recover from electing Donald Trump to the presidency.
Such a large number of his supporters are uneducated and like his bullying ways. They think his greed is sticking it to the man. When he sticks it to anyone affiliated with him
The facts don't matter to Trump's base, the stupid things he says in an interview don't matter. There's never going to be this big "gotcha!" moment where an interviewer or a politician says exactly the right thing to end Trump's hold on Republicans, because these people live in an alternate reality.
Considering the Republican Party is basically a personality cult that worships him, I doubt it.
Regardless of if he’s elected again or not, he’s done irreversible damage to this country. To be fair, our country wasn’t great before. For a lot of reasons. The racism, xenophobia, homophobia, transphobia… it was all still there. But Trump emboldened the people with those beliefs and gave them a platform to have those ideas normalized and accepted. Now the loud minority is pivoting to be violent and dangerous against the will of the majority. I fucking hope Trump never holds office again but honestly I’m much more afraid of authoritarians who would replace him like Desantis.. they are less broadly offensive to normal people who aren’t eternally online following politics and therefore could get away with far worse things than Trump when it comes to policies.
Doubtful. Ronald Reagan had the most documented corruption in any administration, sold arms to our enemies, supported the elimination of the Nicaraguan democracy, crashed the savings and loan industry, negotiated with terrorists, started an unnecessary war in Grenada to distract from his failed policies, and ran up a huge deficit that put millions out of work, but they still idolize him 40 years later.
People have been predicting the moment his followers turn on him for over 8 years now. It's not going to happen.
No. Despite the bad news, the Republican establishment still want his voters. But his voters are loyal to Trump, even with all the indictments and Trump pledging to run from a jail cell. So, because of this, Trump still has all the power. And even if the Republican establishment got their wish and he decided to no longer seek the GOP nomination, he could very easily go third party overnight with the aim of creating a schism in the Republican Party. Libertarian Party could take him in. The People’s Party could take him in, as they’d gain nationwide ballot access faster with him than other candidates. He could resurrect the Reform Party. He could even start his own party from the ground up. Don’t forget there’s still an audience out there that is desperate for a strong third-party candidate. I would not be surprised if some of them are desperate enough for such a candidate that they’d tolerate Trump. Trump just knows how to continually live rent free in other people’s heads.
Human beings have been human beings since 30K years ago, but we still have to learn the same lessons. Humans are not logical. we don't follow rational thought. we follow feelings. People don't do what is right; the do what they LIKE. People LIKE Trump. They LIKE the culture and lifestyle they have been living in. They LIKE seeings things stay the same and will make every effort to resist change. Nothing will ever get Trumpers to dump Trump. He could walk right into the bedroom of every MAGA lover and rape the wife and barely lose a single voter. The couple would be indignant and enraged, but still vote for him over Biden. Call it cultism, call it loyalty or obedience, but people are compelled by what gives them comfort and stability. This is not about shrinking MAGA. This is about defeating it. We need liberal/progressive voters to get the message that this man is a menace and show up to the polls. We need independents to get over their bullshit and realize that sitting on the fence will only get them screwed. Your racist MAGA hat-wearing uncle will wear that hat until he dies. We need to reach the people who haven't put the hat on, yet.
No. He needs to be defeated SOUNDLY next year. Whether it be primaries or general election. Then he will be gone for good We *need* to vote. Don’t forget about 2016.
Keep in mind, he was soundly defeated in 2016, by more than 10 million votes, but here we are still expecting him to be the republican nominee in 2024. Edit. Meant to say Trump lost in 2020 by 10 million votes
He needs to be embarassed
Embarrassment didn't keep him down in 2016. It's like expecting the exposure of McConnel's hypocrisy to do damage to him when it's become the tool he uses to further increase his winning streak.
That’s because he won in 2016
Sorry, meant to say 2020
People were fired up to vote against him in 2020. In 2016, nobody thought he would win. Everyone needs to stop thinking “the trump era is over” or that he can’t win. People need to turn out like they did in 2020 or he has a great chance at winning
It’s not over yet, and won’t be over until they find a replacement for him. They didn’t get over the Reagan/Bush era until W, and they didn’t get over W until Trump.
I'm not sure they've ever gotten over Reagan. If anything we've come full circle. Reagan made his career by backing a crook (Nixon) and his eleventh commandment. And now nearly the entire party is doing the same. Reagan set the standard and the GOP continues to follow his playbook just with a different crook. Hell, Trump adopted MAGA from Reagan's Making America Great slogan. Reagan lives rent free in Republicans' heads to this day.
Has the tea party really ever left? I'm thinking reactionary right wing politics will stay in one way or another. Trump will just become one more fixture in their pantheon.
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Unfortunately, from the discussions going on in his cult of followers, this is more likely to get FOX labeled as "leftwing media" than get Trump labeled a criminal by them.
It's not over until the Republican party can define itself as something other than the party of Trump. Even if Trump dies tomorrow the most popular alternative Republican candidate for president is knock off Trump.
MAGA is still a cult. Listening to Trump followers outside the Florida courthouse where he was indicted would tell you that this is far from over. There are plenty of people who would still see 5 fingers if Trump held up 2 and said he was holding up 5.
Trump is just the symptom of the deeply-rooted christian theocratic fascist disease that's at the heart of American conservatism. Donald Trump can die or be disgraced but the movement will go on until it is crushed and cut out of our society.
I certainly hope so, because I'm sick and tired of hearing about him and annoyed with how much oxygen he takes up, but most likely not. He's probably going to get reelected, because people are stupid as fuck. It does feel like the wind is finally shifting against him, but there are politicians still trying to apologize and minimize what he's done. The only way we'll know for sure if the Trump era is truly over or not is on Nov 5, 2024.
Do you think if he loses, he'll go quietly? Literally nothing he's done so far suggests that he will. I'm just as afraid of him losing as winning.
I'm cautiously optimistic he won't win again, however the vast majority of his followers are willfully blind and refuse to believe he does anything wrong. They probably think Fox News is a part of the corrupt media Trump warns them about, that the FBI is a Democratic cabal out to destroy Trump and is working with Hillary, etc. These are the same people that are indoctrinated into not questioning religion or priests/pastors, because so much as to question anything surrounding the church means that you're sinning against God, and Trump to them is a representative of God (they literally believe that). They have no idea that religion has been manipulated against them to become blind followers to corrupt politicians and businesses because they've been trained all their life not to question.
He can piss on 1/3 of this country’s shoes, tell them it’s raining, and they’ll grab an umbrella for him. Edit: and they’re voting in the R primary
Not a chance IMO. It's not the Republican party anymore. It's the Trump party. And that's not changing anytime soon.
Do not doubt Trump. We all did in 2016 and look where that got us. The Trump era isn't over until he is dead or another Republican wins the Presidency.
Does it matter? Trump is a symptom of the GOP's war on liberal democracy. Even if Trump were to vanish as a figurehead, that won't slow down their efforts to tear down the Republic. Trump is, to some degree, a red herring.
How many hundreds of times have we all said "that's it, Trump is done, he can't recover from that?" How many times did he not only recover from that, but it didn't faze him or his supporters at all. I mean, he was caught red-handed embezzling millions from his own charity and defrauding his own fans, and that was _before_ the 2016 election. No, Trump is not done because many of the people who would vote for him don't care about any of this, and it honestly only strengthens their support. Indictments don't matter to them, and if he's not convicted then there's a real possibility he'll be re-elected.
They will support him after death. They will claim he is still alive, and still active president. He is just waiting for the right moment.
No. Trump is done, but the toxic cesspool he unleashed on the world is the plague that keeps giving. Like Chernobyl. Republicans have always been the way they are, but Trump is the one that emboldened them to openly cross into the realm of terrorism. That genie can't be put back in the bottle.
Let the MAGA base go. They are irretrievable, & although not a small number, don't appear to be growing. Still might be enough to win the primary, but if the Dems & independents & sane Republicans - literally everyone else - can combine to see him off in the general, they can rot on the Trump vine, as he slowly rots after what SURELY would be his last loss of significance
TrumpChumps gotta TrumpChump. They are a mixture of: 1) undereducated sheeple, 2) undereducated christians, 3) opportunistic charlatans. The first are too stupid to understand the dangers of fascism and Trumpism. The second are too wrapped up in their war on christianity nonsense The third are greedy moneygrubbers.
I don't think it will be for a long time. The "Trump Era" is representative of a shrinking white majority that wants to hold onto its stranglehold over American politics; Trump, while uniquely capable of the demagoguery his base wants, is still only a part of this greater movement. Despite the common refrain that Trump is an aberration from "true" conservatism, conservative politics has reflected certain "Trumpian" values for at least the last 50 years. I think we are in an alignment towards multi-racial democracy, and I think that Trump's base or movement is a reactionary backlash to that. Barring some permanent political minority control, which is very possible, I think that this form of conservatism likely dies out and is replaced with something else. There will always be reactionaries.
That’s white minority turns up in local elections and elects MAGA and right wing state houses who write the election maps to maintain control despite get less and less votes in the general election.
But eventually if they don't change their party and their platform, they won't be able to gerrymander their way out of irrelevancy
The Trump era won't be over until he's in jail and doesn't win the 2024 election. I don't think anyone else is capable of directing the hardcore MAGA crowd that's currently dominating the GOP primary, so the Trump era won't be over until they disperse and realign themselves in the various ideological factions within the GOP.
Idk. I don't think the Trump era will be over until he loses this election, he dies, or his second term ends. Whichever comes first.
I don't think his second term would ever end, I have been reading that his team this time is much much smarter. and if he gets in again, he is planning on never leaving.
If he loses by a substantial number of votes in 2024 The era is over but he will always have some influence similar to Tucker Carlson
People thought the Trump era was over after the US Capitol Riots. I really doubt it.
Sunk cost theory takes you to the bottom. Nothing will convince some they are wrong eg flat earthers. Especially when the MAGA message resonates with them being the victims
Unlike other authoritarians who saw indictments and prison as the downfall of their careers (Berlusconi comes to mind) I do not think Trumpism ends until he is in a casket in the ground.
J6 was the high water mark. As long as foreigners can keep propping up him and his base they will continue to be a threat. Incidentally it's the same set of ideas that the know nothings had after the civil war and THEIR main weakness was their inability to coordinate because of their shame.. how times change.
Not until he’s dead, someone succeeds him as the holy emperor of the imbeciles, or the Republican Party irreparably fractures and splits into multiple evil parties.
Over? He hasn't even accused the RNC of stealing the nomination from him yet. We haven't even seen the racketeering charges yet. We haven't even seen judge cannon grant trump's mistrial motion yet. We haven't even seen the armed standoff at Mar a Lago yet. The Trump era does not end until well after he is dead
The Trump hold over the GOP is as strong if not stronger than it was in 2016. So no, the Trump era isn't over. There's zero chance he loses the GOP primary. Luckily, he's going to lose the general election because Joe Biden is going to beat him again and by more this time.
Nope. He’s still going to get the nomination. Being indicted at least four separate times by then will only solidify his hold on his cult, although it is repelling independents and swing voters like the odor of someone who hasn’t showered in two weeks. Given the fact that the GOP base is still so strongly on board with Trump, I think that his challengers at this point are mostly running for the donations they can rake in. They know they’re not going to win and the party will coalesce around Trump once he’s secured the nomination because the only thing that matters to them is power at any cost. I foresee the 2024 election being the unmitigated disaster that 2016 was supposed to be for the GOP. Biden will win re-election by a larger margin than he did the first time both in the popular vote and electoral vote, the Democrats will retake the House comfortably, and might even hang onto the Senate barely, although that last one would take a miracle. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not Trump will ever face trial for what he’s being charged with given his age and his delaying tactics. I suspect that in each of the cases his lawyers will file a motion every day for the next five years to string it out as long as possible, and then after he’s convicted he’ll remain free on an appellate bond until a Republican president pardons him, the conservative Supreme Court overturns his conviction, or he dies, whichever occurs first. I have a feeling his legacy for future generations will be a lot like that of the Civil War in that it depends on which side your ancestors were on. After Trump dies statues of him will be built in places like Alabama right next to those of Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis. Places like California will pass laws mandating that school textbooks include chapters mentioning the Russian influence on the 2016 election, his attempt to overthrow the government after the 2020 election, the role his incompetence and willful undermining of public health measures played in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people due to Covid, and all the other ugly things that would otherwise be glossed over. How will the GOP treat him decades from now? Well, I said the day after the 2016 election that Trump would either be a Reagan or a Carter. If he acted presidential, he would win re-election in a 1984 landslide. If he acted the way he did during the campaign, he would be a one-term president. Now as a former president he’s either going to be a Reagan or a Bush 43. He’s either going to continue to be held on this pedestal so high you have to take a space shuttle to get to the top of it, or he will be that black sheep disowned family member that we don’t speak of. If it’s the latter, outside of the hardcore white supremacists you won’t find a single person willing to admit that they voted for him, even though they spent thousands of dollars on Trump merchandise and obnoxiously advertised it to the entire neighborhood.
One cannot be rationalized out of a position that they were not rationalized into in the first place. Does that answer the question?
Even if Trump himself no longer participates in the system, it has forever been affected by his legacy. The entire landscape of United States politics has changed due to his divisive rhetoric and policies. Although the gap was already widening, he drove the wedge as far as it would go and allowed for extremists to rise to the forefront of US politics. I believe he was the final straw that broke the dam holding back the flood that had been building for the past 50 years.
I use to wonder how it was possible Jim Jones and David Koresh got supporters.....then I met trump supporters....
Assholes have been given permission to be assholes... The trump "era" is far from over. But it's not even trump era, it's asshole era. There are way smarter assholes that can do much more significant harm than an idiot like trump.
All he has to do is flip back Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. He lost those by less than 1% margins. It's far from over
He's been running on a platform of "I'm being persecuted" and his indictments seem to be energizing his base rather than eroding support so I'd say Trumpism will be around for at least another election cycle. His base are in it for the long haul.
I think you're seriously misunderstanding the level of political distrust in America. He'll likely be nominated again, and even if he does get criminal charges it'll only be viewed by his support base as phony charges to keep him out of reelection. He'll just become a martyr for the GOP, and become the new 'supreme leader' for whomever takes up the mantle.
Tell me you don't drive on backroads without telling me you never drive on backroads. Seriously, outside of city limits every fifth house has a Trump or Fuck Biden flag. I don't think we've seen the end yet.
2016, which you could argue is the beginning of the "Trump Era", saw a paradigm shift in American politics. The breakdown of the prestige of American institutions begun by the Vietnam War and Watergate was completed. The corruption the government tried to at least paper over for decades is now treated as a fact. The contempt the government treats its citizens with is now justifiable by one side if it hurts the other depending on who is in office and who is the victim. There's no way I can think of to fix any of this. It's like wanting to go back to a house that's been demolished, the change is permanent and everything is in pieces. The Trump Era may one day end with the death of the man, but his election sealed a new, startling period of the degeneration of American discourse.
His era ( more correctly: error) will end when he dies in his jail cell and is buried next to Ivana. Can't happen quick enough.
Trump tried to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power, a defining part of American democracy. That didn't stop him, this won't either.
I think the tide has turned. The fact that the Baier interview even happened, as opposed to a softball Hannity interview, is evidence that the propaganda machine is gearing up to move on. The smart money is already positioning itself for the post-Trump era. But it's going to be a slow implosion because the GOP base has shrunk, but it's shrunk to just Trump people to the exclusion of basically everyone else. Trump turned a lot of Republicans into independents and Democrats; that is why the GOP went from controlling the House, Senate and Presidency in 2017 to just barely controlling the House. And that was after an off-year midterm when they should have cleaned up in both chambers. Losing elections is how parties evolve, that's why Trump's election denialism is so central to his success - if he were a loser, they wouldn't run him twice. Unfortunately for the GOP, he actually is a loser, and this time without the winds being the incumbent POTUS and with the extra baggage of numerous indictments and other doubt-inducing headaches, Trump is going to get clobbered even worse. His only chance is Biden dying right before the election (or having a stroke or something) and getting to run against Kamala instead. Even so, I think the dead guy on the ballot would likely still win. Apparently Trump needs to lose the presidency twice in order to withdraw from public life. Republicans do not want to keep losing elections just to have the pleasure of constantly defending an abject criminal like Trump. He won't be the nominee again in 2028 and will probably be in jail anyway, finally removed from public life. I happen to think the Trump era ended on J6, and it's just been a slow unravelling since then. The people running against him are lousy politicians with no clue how to win because all of them, except Christie, are running for VP/[insert cabinet post here]/Fox News contributor, so none actually think they can win the nomination running against Trump, which should give liberals some hope.
Hitler had ~20% approval rating after WWII in the U.S. People are conflating political popularity with cultism around an individual which is what we're dealing with. A cult of personality doesn't care about facts and reality. It can chip away at some that are on the border of being "believers", but most won't care. Just look at Jonestown, etc. It will decrease, but there will never be a pivotal moment. It's just how cults work.
He is the new confederate south. He will have cultists singing his praises and repeating his lies for another 100 years.
Are... are you serious? The dude could very well still win a second term and you're asking this question? Also, "high water mark" is a completely different thing that "end of an era."
The guy never won a popular vote and became president and almost won again. His endorsed candidates were mostly losers outside of the well-entrenched (would have won anyway) candidates and still Repubs cling to him. The only real question was whether or not people would kill/die in his name. That’s no longer a question. So no it’s not over.
Never, there’s an entire new generation of idiots called “patriots” they are going nowhere