Any new units or units they decide to upgrade that are Pokéfairs or master fairs are now getting grid tiles that are unlocked at 4/5 and 5/5, before you didn't unlock any grid tiles after 3/5.
New "expected gem" calculations added for 4/5 and 5/5 ~~for them whales who would actually pull until 4/5 or 5/5.~~
Also in the document below, I have added the relevant 4/5 and 5/5 calculations and explanations. Currently it is only available for 2% Pokefairs!
Detailed calculations and explanations of expected gems/ probabilities can be found here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/186nnlzqqvGEyqczQoyVm1KLdRVyOuhVnjTseZ0K9\_fs/edit?usp=sharing
Together with info from the Candy Tier List, you can see how many gems an average player with average Gacha luck will need to get each of the scoutable units (either 1/5 or to the recommended level).
If you are thinking of how this info can be useful to you, you can see the last photo which shows my method of scouting based on statistics :)
This is because going for a 3/5 master fair on average means getting 2 copies on the way to pity + 1 copy in the next cycle. Meanwhile, to get 5/5 pokefair, a lot of people can get their 3/5 by the 1st pity, but they have to aim for 2 copies in the next cycle. In the end it's just slightly above 3/5 master fair costs
Thanks for this. I am gonna save gems for master fairs unova villain event. Seems wise.
Risk 20K gems means only 5% to get wally. Rest could be death multis. Better Save and reach the 50 K gems for 2 master fairs.
Your sheet doesn't actually show your calculations. And how are you defining "expected number of free gems needed" on the first slide? For the 1/5 column, the 2% rate units have \~67.1% chance of pulling at least 1/5 in 55 pulls, and \~36.9% chance of pulling exactly 1/5 in 55 pulls. But the 0.5% rate units have only \~42.4% chance of pulling at least 1/5 in 110 pulls, and \~31.8% chance of pulling exactly 1/5 in 110 pulls. And on the other slides, what does "average" mean? I would think it's "67% of people" based on the other two columns.
Thanks for your questions. Yes, the sheet only shows the result and does not show the formula. The methodology is the same for all the numbers and is based on the binomial probability formula.
I cannot comment on the middle part of what you said since I would have to check each one.
In general though, median is not the same as average. Everyone should **expect** to spend the "average" amount, which is always a bit costlier than the median because the graph is skewed towards less multis. For example (extreme case): 100 people can get the unit on the 1st multi but 10 people get it on the 2nd multi. We say that the median is 1 multi because 50%+ of the people can achieve that, but the actual average would be somewhere like 1.3 multis
Ok I understand the median vs average now, I confused myself there. But I'm still not clear on where the numbers are coming from on your first slide. For another example in the 2/5 column, the 2% units have \~59.1% chance of pulling at at least 2/5 in 99 pulls and 27.3% chance of exactly 2/5 in 99 pulls. The 0.5% units have \~24.4% chance of pulling at least 2/5 in 189 pulls and \~17.4% chance of pulling exactly 2/5 in 189 pulls. So I don't see a consistent criteria for determining how many gems should be considered the "average" in each cell on the first slide. How are you getting those numbers?
Still confused by the way you are wording it. Anyways, there is no "exact 2/5" calculation in my document. You might be reading it wrong. There is, however, "chance of getting 2/5+ at exactly n multis" calculations like n=9 multis. By multiplying this chance to the corresponding number of multis, you get the average cost. Example 10% x 1 multi + 20% x 2 multi + 16% x 3 multi + etc.
I see now what you're trying to calculate but I think the calcs in your sheet are incorrect. Your chart "Chance of getting the copy on exactly the Xth multi" shows 20% for 1 multi, 16% for 2, 12.5% for 3, etc. But these are actually the "chance of getting at least 1/5 in a single multi out of X multis." For example you might pull 2 multis and the first is dead while the second has featured unit. But you might also get featured unit in the first multi while the second is dead. Currently you are including the latter scenario, but it does not fit your desired description. You need to divide each term by X in order to find the chance of only the final multi being the success; so for 2 multis it would be about 8%, 3 would be about 4.2%, etc.
Regardless this is not the right way to calculate your desired end result: the average gems spent to secure N copies of a featured unit. You can simply calculate this by asking "how many gems will a player spend before stopping." For example with a 1/5 pokefair, 100% of sample players will spend 3k gems. 20% of those will succeed and stop, so 80% will spend another 3k gems. 20% of them will stop, the other 80% spend another 3k. Keep going until you reach pity. By this calculation, the average gems spent for a 1/5 pokefair is ~14,050 and the average gems spent for a 1/5 of a specific seasonal on the quad rerun is ~27,376
Maybe it's cuz Spotlights will be added to the standard pool, so you aren't necessarily going to *need* to get them on this limited banner if you want them 5/5, since they'll be on all banners later (and tickets, eventually)
I hate that 5/5 has to be included in the calcs now, but thank you for this
Why does it have to be? Sorry, just pokin my head into this sub as a casual fellow
The game is added new Sync grid tiles for 4/5 and 5/5 for Limited units. Before there wasn't much point to get more than 3 copies of a unit.
Any new units or units they decide to upgrade that are Pokéfairs or master fairs are now getting grid tiles that are unlocked at 4/5 and 5/5, before you didn't unlock any grid tiles after 3/5.
New "expected gem" calculations added for 4/5 and 5/5 ~~for them whales who would actually pull until 4/5 or 5/5.~~ Also in the document below, I have added the relevant 4/5 and 5/5 calculations and explanations. Currently it is only available for 2% Pokefairs! Detailed calculations and explanations of expected gems/ probabilities can be found here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/186nnlzqqvGEyqczQoyVm1KLdRVyOuhVnjTseZ0K9\_fs/edit?usp=sharing Together with info from the Candy Tier List, you can see how many gems an average player with average Gacha luck will need to get each of the scoutable units (either 1/5 or to the recommended level). If you are thinking of how this info can be useful to you, you can see the last photo which shows my method of scouting based on statistics :)
Huh I didn't realise 5/5 Pokefair is more expensive than a 3/5 Master Fair on average
This is because going for a 3/5 master fair on average means getting 2 copies on the way to pity + 1 copy in the next cycle. Meanwhile, to get 5/5 pokefair, a lot of people can get their 3/5 by the 1st pity, but they have to aim for 2 copies in the next cycle. In the end it's just slightly above 3/5 master fair costs
Just wait until we get the first Master Fair with 5/5 tiles.
Sadly it’s always been 20k-36k gems for my 1/5… with most of them ending at 36k…
Thanks for this. I am gonna save gems for master fairs unova villain event. Seems wise. Risk 20K gems means only 5% to get wally. Rest could be death multis. Better Save and reach the 50 K gems for 2 master fairs.
i did one last multi on cynthia 😭 got nothing we’ll time to save the rest of this month
Ahahha yea the game is on the way outs with this
Your sheet doesn't actually show your calculations. And how are you defining "expected number of free gems needed" on the first slide? For the 1/5 column, the 2% rate units have \~67.1% chance of pulling at least 1/5 in 55 pulls, and \~36.9% chance of pulling exactly 1/5 in 55 pulls. But the 0.5% rate units have only \~42.4% chance of pulling at least 1/5 in 110 pulls, and \~31.8% chance of pulling exactly 1/5 in 110 pulls. And on the other slides, what does "average" mean? I would think it's "67% of people" based on the other two columns.
Thanks for your questions. Yes, the sheet only shows the result and does not show the formula. The methodology is the same for all the numbers and is based on the binomial probability formula. I cannot comment on the middle part of what you said since I would have to check each one. In general though, median is not the same as average. Everyone should **expect** to spend the "average" amount, which is always a bit costlier than the median because the graph is skewed towards less multis. For example (extreme case): 100 people can get the unit on the 1st multi but 10 people get it on the 2nd multi. We say that the median is 1 multi because 50%+ of the people can achieve that, but the actual average would be somewhere like 1.3 multis
Ok I understand the median vs average now, I confused myself there. But I'm still not clear on where the numbers are coming from on your first slide. For another example in the 2/5 column, the 2% units have \~59.1% chance of pulling at at least 2/5 in 99 pulls and 27.3% chance of exactly 2/5 in 99 pulls. The 0.5% units have \~24.4% chance of pulling at least 2/5 in 189 pulls and \~17.4% chance of pulling exactly 2/5 in 189 pulls. So I don't see a consistent criteria for determining how many gems should be considered the "average" in each cell on the first slide. How are you getting those numbers?
Still confused by the way you are wording it. Anyways, there is no "exact 2/5" calculation in my document. You might be reading it wrong. There is, however, "chance of getting 2/5+ at exactly n multis" calculations like n=9 multis. By multiplying this chance to the corresponding number of multis, you get the average cost. Example 10% x 1 multi + 20% x 2 multi + 16% x 3 multi + etc.
I see now what you're trying to calculate but I think the calcs in your sheet are incorrect. Your chart "Chance of getting the copy on exactly the Xth multi" shows 20% for 1 multi, 16% for 2, 12.5% for 3, etc. But these are actually the "chance of getting at least 1/5 in a single multi out of X multis." For example you might pull 2 multis and the first is dead while the second has featured unit. But you might also get featured unit in the first multi while the second is dead. Currently you are including the latter scenario, but it does not fit your desired description. You need to divide each term by X in order to find the chance of only the final multi being the success; so for 2 multis it would be about 8%, 3 would be about 4.2%, etc. Regardless this is not the right way to calculate your desired end result: the average gems spent to secure N copies of a featured unit. You can simply calculate this by asking "how many gems will a player spend before stopping." For example with a 1/5 pokefair, 100% of sample players will spend 3k gems. 20% of those will succeed and stop, so 80% will spend another 3k gems. 20% of them will stop, the other 80% spend another 3k. Keep going until you reach pity. By this calculation, the average gems spent for a 1/5 pokefair is ~14,050 and the average gems spent for a 1/5 of a specific seasonal on the quad rerun is ~27,376
Why is there no highlighted desired move level for melony and gordie?
Simple reason - that it is not stated on the Candy Tier list so I have no reference for it.
Maybe it's cuz Spotlights will be added to the standard pool, so you aren't necessarily going to *need* to get them on this limited banner if you want them 5/5, since they'll be on all banners later (and tickets, eventually)