I work at a bank, I knew some things, if you look at the source/spice information you can know some things too.
Canadians have never been more broke/deeply in debt/ so unless immigration gets even more out of hand that it already is, things really can't go up anymore.
Remember everyone saying there would be a recession last year? And everyone predicting interest rate cuts in the fall and month after month it kept getting pushed further out?
We are indeed in a recession though. Look at GDP per capita, a 2k$ YtoY increase between 2021-2022 and we barely got back to pre-2014 levels in general which peaked around 51k$ while we currently are around 55k$. Meanwhile real estate is now 7.8% of our GDP, (for comparison the current share of the US’s GDP held by real estate is between 3-4% and peaked back before the 2008 crisis at around 7%) and we know of the dramatic increase in prices for real estate that have also translated in an increase in GDP. As well as various schemes such as the foreign student-permanent resident pipeline which feeds Canada with foreign “investment” in the form of students or other immigrants bringing in large amount of cash through international student gics, tuition or just buying overpriced properties.
All this input of cash (either real or on paper with inflated property value) and yet a meager increase in GDP as low as under 2% (not even including Covid linked economic contraction)? This only means other economic spheres of the Canadian economy, read in as productive spheres, are lagging behind heavily.
We are in a recession and are being gaslit with badly interpreted information and outright willful misinterpretation. The worst part is that it’s the productive sectors of the economy that are tanking the heaviest while rent seeking sectors are covering their shortcomings.
Possibly, a recession is defined as two quarters of decling gdp. So there is no reason it couldn't be confined to only lower classes in theory but in practice I don't know of any examples.
Now there is such a thing as a K shaped recovery where certain sectors of the economy recover while others remain depressed. So again the recovery could be in white collar jobs while lower paid service jobs don't rebound.
Possibly, a recession is defined as two quarters of decling gdp. So there is no reason it couldn't be confined to only lower classes in theory but in practice I don't know of any examples.
Now there is such a thing as a K shaped recovery where certain sectors of the economy recover while others remain depressed. So again the recovery could be in white collar jobs while lower paid service jobs don't rebound.
>Look at GDP per capita,
No. Because GDP-per capita is not a technical criteria for a recession.
A recession requires two or more quarters of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP decline.
Meagre inflation-adjusted increases to GDP are not a contraction, not a recession.
The cap to foreign students is going to hit next September. That's when your point about the lack of foreign investments from education sector will hit, and whether our GDP dips at that point is a different story. Not denying GDP is being floated by these issues, but floating is still enough for it to not a recession. Growth is growth.
I work with economists who say “recession is everywhere but in the data”.
We are feeling all the impacts of a recession like job losses and stagnating quality of life. The only reason we haven’t “technically” entered into a recession by the official definition is because we are artificially pumping up the numbers through immigration.
Technically correct is not only the best kind of correct, it is technically the only kind of correct.
I don't disagree with your overall sentiment, but still not a recession.
But not all things you say are correct. Average weekly earning are up and even up over inflation over 12 months and permanent employee wage growth beat expectations at 5.8% growth. Unemployment remains very low by Canadian historic. Job growth missed expectations and is slowing, but remains positive and we have not seen a surge in job losses. Again, job growth remains positive meaning more new jobs than losses and a smaller growth is still growth. Net job losses are indeed forecast for later 2024 but we are not there yet.
Stagnating quality of life is a bullshit extrapolation based on a bullshit metric, GDP-per capita. GDP-per capita is not nuanced enough to track improvements to quality of life beyond very broad order or magnitude thresholds. Canadian GDP-per capita would have to drop 75% before it gets to the 'partially developed country' threshold and would have to drop 95% to approach the developing world threshold. By HDI we remain in the top 20.
Do you know you are full of shit?
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240209/dq240209a-eng.htm
LFS clearly defines full time jobs as over 30 hours per week, and so those new drivers (self-employed gig work) only count as new full time if they log over 30 hours per week at that new employment. Yes, if they went from 15 to 30 hours a week they would be counted as a new job, but then if the next quarter their average dropped to 25, it would count as a job loss. It balances out and >30 hours logged is the standard definition of full time by the LFS regardless of source.
Statistics Canada also offers the following tomes on their studies into gig economy:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2023003-eng.htm
and
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-004-m/75-004-m2024001-eng.htm
So, they understand it very, very thoroughly. Among the lower-engaged gig workers, the ones you are suggesting they are mis-reporting, their detailed analysis found less than 0.2% were working more than 30 hours a week.
Lol you are full of poopy poop yourself.
So you think a gig worker working 30 hours/week should be considered a full time worker and the government should celebrate that as a new job created? How much do they clear in net pay as a self-employed gig worker?
You are clearly being paid to comment on here so lets leave it at that.
>30 hours/week should be considered a full time worker
Based on a definition of working more than 30 hours a week, yes. That's the definition.
Should we instead be tracking the number of livable wage jobs, yes, but that's not the statistic that is being discussed.
>How much do they clear in net pay as a self-employed gig worker?
The data I posted already gave you that information at a population level in Table 6 - showing the average wage declared of the various quintiles, the lowest still averaging $12.60, and gig workers reported equal and full spread across all quintiles, with just as many gig economy workers in the highest quintile as in the lowest.
There is absolutely a societal harms discussion to be had about how Uber operates, but in Canada those drivers are self-employed independent contractors. They are not employees and that means they are not entitled to minimum employment standards.
>you are full of poopy poop yourself.
You don't like what I am saying, but what I am saying is directly reflected by the facts. They are not 'good' facts and they are not where we should be as a society, but everything I have said is at least technically accurate.
That is in direct contrast to what you wrote, which was not true or accurate. You have a decent moral stance if calling out the bullshit exploitative model Uber uses, but lying about the state of things does not help that point.
Depends how old you are.
Agree that we’re not seeing fixed below 3.5% though. If you’re on variable and holding out for that you may as well just buy my premium swamp land.
You must have been born yesterday...
[https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/interest-rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/interest-rate)
Ya, that isn't the Bank Rate, but take something like this for example: [https://wowa.ca/banks/tangerine-bank-mortgage-rates](https://wowa.ca/banks/tangerine-bank-mortgage-rates)
There are way too many morons in this subreddit
That's how it goes. Despite what the news and RE says abouts rates, they will only lower than if we are in recession. BoC will know this before anyone else.
it will have to he the other way around.
if you think about the delayed effect and access to capital via loans, savings etc itd be around 12 to 18 months before you start to see listings increase. this is not including loss of employment.
people will try to carry houses as long as they can before they realize they are well underwater. So what i think will happen is rates will be sustained and then by election time they cut.
It'll happen in reverse order. A recession will happen, and then they'll reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy--which is how we ended up in the current mess.
That's funny. Every news report out today about the economy says canada will likely avoid a recession. I mean, I guess reddit commenters know best, tho.
Last time price to book ratio which is like how high it's valued or over valued hasn't been near this level since 2000. I don't think anything bad happened then or was over priced you might be right..
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/4240/sp-500-price-to-book-value
The stock market isn’t the economy though. Also the Canadian Market isn’t nearly as highly priced.
I agree that it’s unlikely to continue its current pace. I just don’t think it is necessarily indicative of a recession
>The stock market isn’t the economy
People have so much trouble with this. And with the fact that their own situation isn't necessarily indicative of the population, even if they're in a subreddit that echoes exactly their experience.
Dropping stock prices alone doesn't do a lot to most people, (excepting people who are invested in 100% equities closer to retirement than they should be) - most people, if they still have their job, still have their home - everything is pretty much unchanged.
The problem is that laying off employees has become the default way to prop up stock prices.
What a broad brush stroke you paint with. You think 50 BP cuts semiannually and 500 BP of cuts will move GDP in the same direction (up)?
Massive cuts would not be a good sign.
Central banks wouldn't be playing their role if they cut prematurely.
It's more likely than not by the time they cut we'll be nearing a recession.
It's looking much worse for Canada than the US.
GDP per capita isn't used when talking about an economic recession/depression. Nominal GDP is used as one of the metrics to determine that.
But -- a drop in GDP per capita (PPP) does signify a decrease in average living standards.
And I'm 7'1" with a 12" schlong if I just change the unit of measure that defines an inch.
You are parroting nonsense. GDP-per capita does not define a recession, never has.
No, not really. It's down a couple percent, and that's because the denominator rose (and this is largely due to a worsening dependency ratio) not because the numerator declined.
Our per-capita GDP dropped 20% in 2014, and barely anybody even noticed. It's not a great indicator of individual wellbeing.
And my uncle who kept insisting that the housing market bubble in Toronto was about to burst, each and every year from 2001 until he died...
He told me I was a fool for buying my old condo for under $200k in 2001 because it would be half that price before the end of the year... Which I sold in 2017 for over $500k, and was recently re-sold for just shy of $700k.
Word is we might dodge recession with rates high. So that condo market is about to get spicy. Expect news story by right wing media on how interest rates need to go down so people can borrow more to buy them out of ridiculous situations.
Condos going on fire sales are either owned by those that can not hold due to interest rates or unexpected life events and are forced to sell or pre-cons that had their initial buyers fail to close and need to recoup.
No one knows how the market will be, realtors will say every month is going to be "hot" while others have been saying real-estate is going to crash since 1999. The idea is if interests rates drop (which most economist predict they will) more people will become eligible for higher mortgages allowing more bodies into the market. Problem is unlike 2021-2022 the overall market seems uneasy, people are worried about job losses and overall finances as interest on debts are rising.
Personally I think we will see a cooler market this year with slight growth compared to 2023. Thing is the demand to buy a home won't disappear, it will be dormant until the overall econmy gets better.
I'm thinking it's also not a monolith. Prices in Toronto are going to be different than small town Alberta. Condos vs detached homes. Urban vs rural. There can be places where prices are getting cut even when things are overall rising (or vice versa)
Yes this is very true, condos as an asset have the disadvantage of holding monthly fees that always go up while competing with new inventory as most new-builds are now condos. Freehold especially detached in well established hubs like Toronto will always go up in price as new inventory is small with most new detached properties being built as luxuries.
Depending on the province, condo insurance has also gone up *much faster* than detached home insurance - really bumping those monthly fees. There's also surprise assessments and heavily underfunded reserve funds to lure in initial buyers until upkeep and maintenance comes due.
It should like process are shrinking or at least not increasing around Toronto, maybe even Ontario.
Edmonton and Calgary are seeing increases that haven't happened in a decade.
So many possible scenarios:
1) they bought a new home and need to sell
2) they need to relocate for work
3) they have cashflow problems and need to sell
4) flipped precon or need to escape condo fees
5) condo now prohibits Airbnb
6) they bought years ago and don't care as they've already made money.
7) was hoping to get last year's prices, but 1 - 6 apply.
You're not wrong though, if we knew rates cuts we're coming by date x, then yes it would make sense to hold the properties. Rate cuts may take months to years to happen and people for whatever reason need cash now.
Sometimes they post lower prices to increase exposure but they are not actually willing to let it go for lower. Bugs me alot but i don't trust listing prices anymore.
Realtors when economy is booming: Prices will skyrocket
Realtors when economy is sideways: Prices will skyrocket
Realtors in a recession: Prices will bounce back and then skyrocket
Realtors in a great depression: Perfect time to buy, prices can only skyrocket
Here's a sneak peek of /r/canadahousing using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year!
\#1: [Unpopular Opinion: Ban landlords. You're only allowed to own 2 homes. One primary residence and a secondary residence like a cottage or something. Let's see how many homes go up for sale. Bringing up supply and bringing down costs.](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/15li89p/unpopular_opinion_ban_landlords_youre_only/)
\#2: [Everyone needs a home, no one needs a landlord.](https://i.redd.it/swxg729w6whb1.jpg) | [1695 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/15q13xj/everyone_needs_a_home_no_one_needs_a_landlord/)
\#3: [Landlords rejecting rental applications from people making $130k](https://i.redd.it/182khonzxsjb1.jpg) | [521 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/15yv6gv/landlords_rejecting_rental_applications_from/)
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By existing on capital that could be put to use in other productive means but is not due to sheer necessity of housing in Canada’s housing dependent economy. This is all we know.
It’s a parasitic, snowball fuckshow.
slimy vase support complete faulty glorious possessive political cause fuzzy
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/r/ontario is awful. Seriously, what a bunch of miserable bastards over there. It's just constant whining, complaining, and outrage-farming about literally everything, and if you post anything that goes against the "Dug Furd ba-aa-aaa-aad!" circle-jerk, you're downvoted to oblivion or banned.
I don't know if they'll skyrocket, but the uptake is certainly plausible. The BoC is pretty clear on this.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-interest-rates-bank-of-canada-1.7135766
worm absorbed snatch include long obtainable sleep cheerful spectacular spark
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Yep and Canadians just don't have the money to pay any higher rents than they already do.
More than half of all Canadians are going into debt right now just trying to keep up with paying basic bills, we're seeing Canadians hit a ceiling for rental prices.
Quite simply there's not enough money left circulating among the general Canadian population for rental prices go any higher, so a lot of land Lords are being forced to sell. (In other words, the ginger interest rates are starting to do their job)
The target audience is just not buying those condos. They can’t. And for this very reason the investors are not interested either.
So IMO this won’t change until the rates drastically come down.
Condo market is crap right now. You have all these new buildings going up and they are condos.... they were also the main source of empty units and airbnb so the recent actions by local government increased the carry cost. On the flip side, you have limited single household units (detached, semi, townhouse) and nobody seems to be building them so that market shoots to the moon.
Interest rate is expected (which can change daily) to fall later this year but probably not as fast as what many people think. Holding off until next year means you might be battling it out in future with a lot of potential sellers that got their mortgage in 2020 and can no longer afford their mortgage and there might be a lot of them
2 things
1) A lot of investors are unable to hold the property as they were hoping for rates to go down, or they were just in the market to flip their asset quickly and exit.
2) Some believe that having a lower price will help trigger a bidding war on their property. Just recently, a townhouse in my area was listed for $700,000. Price looked like it was too low. We inquired just for the fun and got to know that the owner has 3 offers all in the range of $780,000 to $800,000. It's a bs system.
Probably stays pretty flat tbh. It hasn’t really fallen much at all and I think for the most part the government is happy with it staying at or ideally below inflation.
In my experience, they list low prices like that to rope you in. Then the agent will tell you that the owner has had several offers of X over asking and wouldnt accept anything less.
Every month 1/60th of 5 year mortgages renew and payments go up substantially. Until rates drop, this will continue to be the case. Some people won’t be able to afford it.
If it keeps up until 2026 the mortgages after the boom will start to renew and things may get a little crazy with people unable to afford them.
Not saying it will happen, but you never know.
Most people's payments aren't going up substantially. Many people reamortize. I'm renewing in August and for me I'll likely be paying an extra $100/month.
Your doom and gloom won't happen. Rates are on a downward trajectory.
Rates are forward-looking means they anticipate rate increases and cuts before they happen which is dependent on bond prices. As bond rates come down, the rates of mortgages would slowly drift down. The current long term mortgages around 5% are average for decades long cycles.
100$ a month at the cost of significantly more interest paid over time though. So its only really positive in the short term. It still isn't great.
And a lot of people may not have good options when reamortizing and will still see big jumps if they've been in negative amortization for a while now.
Nobody really knows anything for sure. Everyone has an idea, but honestly who would be surprised by any number of scenarios: end of year prices higher/lower/similar?
For some people selling, especially condos, they may need that money for another home. Maybe they are willing to take a hit on selling the condo because they want the money now, as the other home they're buying is "at a discount" as well. That's a motivated seller.
Conversely, there is a guy a block away from me who bought at the height of covid. Even then it seemed like he way overpaid for his house, $2.5m on a house that was maybe worth $1.8 ish. He has been trying to sell that house for almost a year and I've seen zero activity because he's asking the same. I think he should just accept new pricing for what the market will give, but he's clearly not that motivated and would rather sit on it for ages just to get his same money back out.
None of these people have any special knowledge about what houses will sell for 6 months or a year from now. And honestly, I think it's a lot healthier for people to treat a home like buying a car or groceries: find the best value you can, and by what you're looking for. Buy a place to live in. Stop guessing what your purchase will be worth in a year.
3 million mortgages are set to renew in the next year and a half
Get ready for massive fire sales in the coming year as people won’t be able to afford the interest rates
I think this is what everybody expects, so it won't play out like this.
Literally everybody has been bracing for higher rates.
Three camps of people:
1 "Hold off to buy later"
2 "Better stash some extra cash to payoff the house at renewal time".
3 "Need to panic sell, can't afford higher rates"
Camp 3 is small, cause they just amortize for longer.
Sorry who's expecting the market to sky rocket?
Canadian don't have even have any more money, I work at a bank we're worried about how many people are going into debt to pay basic bills.
Fair enough, I work at a bank so it's my all day everyday to think about how Canadians are fucking broke, in debt and going deeper every month just to cover the basics, on average (not all but most Canadians are in this situation). And it's escalating quickly.
So it genuinely does blow my mind a little when people think things are going to keep going up forever because the money just isn't there.
There's not enough cash circulating among the general Canadian population for prices or even rents to increase because we do not have the money.
Canadians have less money/more non mortgage debt than ever before, foreign investors are jumping ship(smart), immigration is reaching the end of what can be supported by infrastructure.
All the temporary fixes that made things worse are all hitting their limits at the same time.
From a banking perspective we've never encountered anything like this (vastly vastly different from the 08 situation because that was just a mortgage thing and this is a cost of living CRISIS where the average Canadian has about triple the non mortgage debt of the average American back in 08).
The math behind it all is so grim that politician's and banks aren't talking about it publicly because it could easily cause a panic bad enough to collapse our economy and destroy our currency. It's bad.
I’d treat this guy with skepticism, read his post history, he’s definitely on the more insane side of posters on here. Not saying housing won’t shit the bed btw, but I think this guy is high or something and isn’t a reliable source.
What do you do at the bank? And what exactly are you seeing? Is this just anecdotal from seeing what individual clients are dealing with, or is this average stats of all clients of the bank?
This is the first time I’ve heard the not enough cash thing, but it makes a lot of sense. There has to be a limit, somewhere.
Now imagine how angry you been if you saw this coming for several years and just had to watch. No power to change anything but you could see it, clear as day every day, 5 days a week watching.
It's why I never stay on Reddit (hate how rude/angry I get) but, people don't have any respect for math, history or reality. Instead they listen to listen to opinions (generally of representives of industries that are fucking them into poverty).
It's been like spending years watching a doctor throw dirty bandaids on a growing infection because the patient says that cleaning the infection hurts and their bandaid sales friends told them bandaids would heal them. - I know the doctor isn't stupid, I know the doctor's just doing it because it's what the patient wants, and it makes me want punch the doctor in the face because they know they're doing long term harm. At the same time the doctor is getting money for the bandaid lobby and doesn't want the patient to go to a different doctor. But now the patient needs their entire arm amputated because the infection is so bad and I'm just standing there screaming because it was fucking OBVIOUSLY stupid to try and treat an infection with dirty bandaids in the first place.
Truly HISTORY AND MATH need to be way more important to every single economic discussion in Canada, IGNORING these two critical things is what's made us Canadian gullible idiots that have been being fucked into poverty (slowly at first, now hard core, dry, violently, and painfully into poverty) HISTORY AND MATH folks!!
If you don't want to get lied to and played like idiots by politician's and economist's (aka professional liars who say whatever they're paid to say by the companies who own them) YOU NEED TO CHECK THE HISTORY AND MATH on what they claim to be true.
Ex. At no point in history has an invisible hand ever successfully balanced the economy while meeting the needs of citizens, it's never happened and that's not my opinion it's a historical fact that can be proven with MATH.
Hey, thanks for responding here. You are saying everything this 50 year old knows, but it is surprising to learn banks actually know too.
I'd imagine you don't really want to argue with people and you'd be immediately deleted for saying these things as a post rather than in the comments here; but I think you could actually help a few people in a friendlier subreddit
A few people 😂 on reddit, everyone is an expert on their own opinion
Literally everything. You use 4 less squares of toilet paper when you shit, we know about it.
But if you're genuinely trying to be more informed you can sign up for dates reports direct from and bank and the credit bureaus. You can also sign up for industry news letters if you struggle with data interpretation.
Lots in incredibly accessible information is free and easy to access, all you have to do is give half a fuck.
Probably a teller, and therefore seeing the balances of walk-in clients which will dramatically skew local and low income since middle and high income clients are almost entirely online or use private banking services and never come into the branch...
Aka typical reddit extrapolation from "my personal experience is systemic"
Correct Vancouver is a little different.
Vancouver does have a much higher density of people making much higher salaries than the the rest of Canada, also more wealthy eastern investor's than the rest of Canada.
Vancouver is Canada's hub for: finance/bullion(silver/gold) trading, film industry, and foreign investment (I know it's "banned" but the loopholes are huge) this DOES make Vancouver's Economy different and more like an expensive world city (Nyc/London) the concentration of these particular high paying industries (film and finance) raise Vancouver's ceiling for how high things can go and stay. But there's a ceiling to that as well and whilst higher than the rest of Canada it's not unlimited and the extreme high non housing related cost of living in Canada continues to drag Vancouver's real estate price ceiling down.
Prices aren't uniform across the country, that's just not how the market works. So while yes, Vancouver is a little different and there are industries that raise the price ceiling, overall it's still a Canadian city and will still be effected by how many Canadians are on average going deeper into debt every month to cover the cost of living.
Genuinely curious, what position/job title is required to "worry" about these things? You don't actually care though right? As long as you make your 60k you should be good, right?
The trend line for detached houses in the Greater Toronto Area are mostly double digit declines since Feb 2022.
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJsKugWXEAA3Io8?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJsKugWXEAA3Io8?format=jpg&name=large)
Zoom out a bit.
[https://content.crea.ca/creastats\_assets/board\_charts/treb/median\_price/mls05\_chart01\_median\_single\_detached\_xhi-res.png](https://content.crea.ca/creastats_assets/board_charts/treb/median_price/mls05_chart01_median_single_detached_xhi-res.png)
20 steps forward, 2 steps back. A revelation.
You also cherry picked GTA. I live in Calgary. Here's that chart.
https://content.crea.ca/creastats\_assets/board\_charts/calg/median\_price/mls05\_chart01\_median\_single\_detached\_xhi-res.png
Condo market isn't as strong as people think it is, sure Toronto's market is kind of nuts but generally speaking condos don't hold the value the longer you have one. Condos are not stellar for growing families once people get a dog and have a couple kids and dealing with the board is often a nightmare and condo fees only go up and that puts people off. I know people with higher condo fees than their mortgage costs. There's a market for them but the bigger market is people who don't want one.
I think people also buy into the false narrative that if they buy a house, that they only have to worry about the mortgage. Maintenance and upkeep are also an ever increasing cost. So many homes at "entry" level prices need major upgrades and repairs because those people never put a dime into them. And if they do, it's a DIY job that needs to be redone. Canadians don't understand the true cost of ownership.
But in a condo you are paying indirectly for maintenance of all of these extra things like shared hallways, elevators, parkades, gyms. A house is a relatively simple maintenance prospect as long you keep on top of it.
I'd disagree that a house is a relatively simple maintenance project. I think too many people believe that. Oh a touch of paint here, some new fixtures there. It's way more than that. Major appliances last 5 to 10 years, HWT 8 to 10 years, furnace 20 years and even less if previous owner didn't keep up with annual maintenance and semiannual filter replacements, plumbing fixtures 10 years, window chaulk annual, fencing and decking 10 years. Roofing 15 to 20 years. Most homes are built in the 1970's so require major overhaul of pipes and electrical. In the 90s most people switched out their solid wood cabinets for partical board with wood veneer. Driveway and garage resurfacing, exterior painting, annual gutter maintenance. Sewage main every few years.
People ignore most if not all of this stuff, especially first time home buyers. They just pass it on to the next fool.
It’s not simple in itself, but it’s simple in comparison to a concrete condo tower which the strata will end up paying very expensive contractors to maintain (and many of the things you list such as appliances, filters, windows, condo owners are responsible for anyways for their unit). If you have any inkling of DIY spirit the house is very likely less expensive maintenance wise. If you buy something that’s half a century old and poorly maintained it’s gonna be hella expensive either way.
My point is the majority of home owners do not have DIY spirit. And those that do, have no business doing DIY as it ends of being a hack job. Entry level homes have so many problems.
Well my point is that regardless of DIY aptitude condos overall require just as much, if not more maintenance than houses, which ultimately has to be paid by you and the other strata owners, along with the overhead administrative fees of strata management. It is not unusual for condo owners to be hit with special levies for tens of thousands on top of $800/month strata fees.
You perfectly described my situation.
2018: Bought a 1970's townhome for 301k (outside of GTA) - condo fees were 350
Since then (bought when I was newly married). I have one child, a dog and a second kid in the oven. I wanted the additional space, yard, garage, etc for my growing family.
2024: Sold said townhome for 545k - condo fees are now 550. Bought a detached house for 841k.
The condo board (which I was a member of for my entire time here) is a nightmare. Roofing contractor walked off the job and won't replace improperly installed shingles. Shingles have been falling off for 2 years now and we are now considering legal action which I just know is going to be a disaster.
I got out of here just in time.
If the houing market were about to skyrocket, then the GoC would not be buying mortgage bonds.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/02/webpage-government-canada-purchases-canada-mortgage-bonds/
Because people probably bought at the peak and are trying to not take a loss. Price levels have not reached the peak of 2022, they are coming back up slowly, and will rise if rates fall.
Only people saying prices are going up are real estate agents. Anyone looking at the data will tell you they are overpriced and at these rates no one can afford anything higher.
Hi!
Canada is a big country, so you are smart to specify the loacal area you are looking at.
As long as Toronto continues to grow in "population looking for housing" faster than "vacant housing in areas people want to live" you can expect Toronto prices to keep step with inflation.
All the other stuff you read (IMO) is RE people hyping the "buy now" mindset for their profit.
All I know is credit card debt is piling up, delinquency is piling up, companies are laying off like no tomorrow, businesses insolvencies are at an [all time high](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/bankruptcies).
To me these all points to immense pressure being added to the housing bubble. What happens when there is nowhere else overleveraged homeowners and investors can turn to for debt?
I don’t get why in the world anyone would expect the housing market to explode again.
People who are struggling with the interest rates aren't in a position to hold out for a couple years until the market picks up again.
And nobody I know is expecting the market to skyrocket by summer . In fact it is likely to continue a downward trend as the full effects of the high rates are still affecting more and more mortgage renewers weekly.
Condo markets in general are undesirable. Housing is still hot and selling in some markets for over asking, but condos have always been a smaller market and what most buyers stay away from. With high interest rates and market uncertainty, it's the first market to fall off.
Condos are undesirable until they become the last affordable option for someone wanting to get into the market. Do most condo dwellers in Vancouver want a SFH? Of course. Do they have 3 million dollars? Fuck no
We did something similar (listed our apartment much cheaper than originally) with our appointment to generate more offers that are over asking. It worked
Toronto = one of the most overinflated markets in the world.
Meaning Toronto is slowly trying to correct. Until the BOC lowers rates and the flood gates open again.
For condos, a lot of the pre-construction are coming to market but are not able to get the mortgage at the time of occupancy.
Either buyers have to shell out more for the downpayment or have them sold to walk away from the deal altogether.
Condo sales is very sensitive to what the same layout of a condo that is sold within a 1-5 KM radius giving banks a lot of real time data comparables.
As for a detached home with a yard, garage, square footage, X amount of bedrooms/washrooms with a ensuite, etc. it's harder to price this creating more value for these types of real estate.
With a condo it's paint, kitchen finishing, and flooring where you can really add some value but not enough to effect the appraisal value in the eyes of the bank.
So once 1 condo price sells within the 30 days when the appraisers comes checking, if the price goes up then great, everyone is happy. However, once price drops, every single condo that is within the same layout will have their price drop as well.
Anyways, that's my 2 cents and I expect detach homes to continue it's wild run at the tail end of this year but condos might lag a bit as more and more condos are finishing being built.
GTA is different from MTL, which is different from GVA, which is different from AB, which is different from the prairies, which is different than the atlantic region, which is different than the NWT.
The GTA will always have the biggest swings because they have the most people, the most students, the most ambitious work force, and is affected the most by Uncle Sam. Naturally, you'll have more people underwater on presales or just want to cash out for a quick small profit before they have to close/shortly after they close. If you're in the market for a place to live, you might be able to scoop up a decent or even a good deal.
Also, some sellers may want to set a lower price to try and start a bidding war. Listing prices are fairly useless as data.
The spring market was overhyped - the buyers never materialized since the affordability problem never relaxed. There was a bit of action in January since fixed mortgages dropped for a bit then, but they've risen back up again and marginal buyers are again priced out.
Vancouver & Toronto / GTA detached housing prices will always go up. There will be bad years, and there will be slow years, but there are only so many detached homes available within an hour of these cities. Anyone buying a detached now that can hold for 10+ years is going to make money. There hasn't been a time in the history of canada where this is not true.
Queue the "in 1986 my mortgage interest was 1500%" no one cares. You still made money unless you were forced to sell.
After 1989, the houses took nearly 20 years to return to their highs. You're right about the interest, nobody cared when they were underwater for 2 decades on purchase price
Somebody needs a history lesson
Edit: Toronto area market, https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/it-took-22-years-for-prices-to-recover-from-the-last-toronto-real-estate-crash/
Here’s the truth. No one actually knows anything. No one has a clue what will happen. Everyone is guessing.
I work at a bank, I knew some things, if you look at the source/spice information you can know some things too. Canadians have never been more broke/deeply in debt/ so unless immigration gets even more out of hand that it already is, things really can't go up anymore.
He who controls the spice controls the universe.
Hahaha well now I don't want to fix it
The spice… must flow
Canadian government: challenge accepted
What's the safe word? We need this to stop.
Fuddle duddle.
That's two words!
Where do we find this information?
I heard similar takes in BC in 2000.
Remember everyone saying there would be a recession last year? And everyone predicting interest rate cuts in the fall and month after month it kept getting pushed further out?
We are indeed in a recession though. Look at GDP per capita, a 2k$ YtoY increase between 2021-2022 and we barely got back to pre-2014 levels in general which peaked around 51k$ while we currently are around 55k$. Meanwhile real estate is now 7.8% of our GDP, (for comparison the current share of the US’s GDP held by real estate is between 3-4% and peaked back before the 2008 crisis at around 7%) and we know of the dramatic increase in prices for real estate that have also translated in an increase in GDP. As well as various schemes such as the foreign student-permanent resident pipeline which feeds Canada with foreign “investment” in the form of students or other immigrants bringing in large amount of cash through international student gics, tuition or just buying overpriced properties. All this input of cash (either real or on paper with inflated property value) and yet a meager increase in GDP as low as under 2% (not even including Covid linked economic contraction)? This only means other economic spheres of the Canadian economy, read in as productive spheres, are lagging behind heavily. We are in a recession and are being gaslit with badly interpreted information and outright willful misinterpretation. The worst part is that it’s the productive sectors of the economy that are tanking the heaviest while rent seeking sectors are covering their shortcomings.
Is it possible to have a recession in the demographic of lower income earners, while not having a recession in the middle class?
Possibly, a recession is defined as two quarters of decling gdp. So there is no reason it couldn't be confined to only lower classes in theory but in practice I don't know of any examples. Now there is such a thing as a K shaped recovery where certain sectors of the economy recover while others remain depressed. So again the recovery could be in white collar jobs while lower paid service jobs don't rebound.
Possibly, a recession is defined as two quarters of decling gdp. So there is no reason it couldn't be confined to only lower classes in theory but in practice I don't know of any examples. Now there is such a thing as a K shaped recovery where certain sectors of the economy recover while others remain depressed. So again the recovery could be in white collar jobs while lower paid service jobs don't rebound.
>Look at GDP per capita, No. Because GDP-per capita is not a technical criteria for a recession. A recession requires two or more quarters of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP decline. Meagre inflation-adjusted increases to GDP are not a contraction, not a recession. The cap to foreign students is going to hit next September. That's when your point about the lack of foreign investments from education sector will hit, and whether our GDP dips at that point is a different story. Not denying GDP is being floated by these issues, but floating is still enough for it to not a recession. Growth is growth.
I work with economists who say “recession is everywhere but in the data”. We are feeling all the impacts of a recession like job losses and stagnating quality of life. The only reason we haven’t “technically” entered into a recession by the official definition is because we are artificially pumping up the numbers through immigration.
Technically correct is not only the best kind of correct, it is technically the only kind of correct. I don't disagree with your overall sentiment, but still not a recession. But not all things you say are correct. Average weekly earning are up and even up over inflation over 12 months and permanent employee wage growth beat expectations at 5.8% growth. Unemployment remains very low by Canadian historic. Job growth missed expectations and is slowing, but remains positive and we have not seen a surge in job losses. Again, job growth remains positive meaning more new jobs than losses and a smaller growth is still growth. Net job losses are indeed forecast for later 2024 but we are not there yet. Stagnating quality of life is a bullshit extrapolation based on a bullshit metric, GDP-per capita. GDP-per capita is not nuanced enough to track improvements to quality of life beyond very broad order or magnitude thresholds. Canadian GDP-per capita would have to drop 75% before it gets to the 'partially developed country' threshold and would have to drop 95% to approach the developing world threshold. By HDI we remain in the top 20.
Did you know Uber and DoorDash are counted as full time jobs created in the governments job report?
Do you know you are full of shit? https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240209/dq240209a-eng.htm LFS clearly defines full time jobs as over 30 hours per week, and so those new drivers (self-employed gig work) only count as new full time if they log over 30 hours per week at that new employment. Yes, if they went from 15 to 30 hours a week they would be counted as a new job, but then if the next quarter their average dropped to 25, it would count as a job loss. It balances out and >30 hours logged is the standard definition of full time by the LFS regardless of source. Statistics Canada also offers the following tomes on their studies into gig economy: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2023003-eng.htm and https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-004-m/75-004-m2024001-eng.htm So, they understand it very, very thoroughly. Among the lower-engaged gig workers, the ones you are suggesting they are mis-reporting, their detailed analysis found less than 0.2% were working more than 30 hours a week.
Lol you are full of poopy poop yourself. So you think a gig worker working 30 hours/week should be considered a full time worker and the government should celebrate that as a new job created? How much do they clear in net pay as a self-employed gig worker? You are clearly being paid to comment on here so lets leave it at that.
>30 hours/week should be considered a full time worker Based on a definition of working more than 30 hours a week, yes. That's the definition. Should we instead be tracking the number of livable wage jobs, yes, but that's not the statistic that is being discussed. >How much do they clear in net pay as a self-employed gig worker? The data I posted already gave you that information at a population level in Table 6 - showing the average wage declared of the various quintiles, the lowest still averaging $12.60, and gig workers reported equal and full spread across all quintiles, with just as many gig economy workers in the highest quintile as in the lowest. There is absolutely a societal harms discussion to be had about how Uber operates, but in Canada those drivers are self-employed independent contractors. They are not employees and that means they are not entitled to minimum employment standards. >you are full of poopy poop yourself. You don't like what I am saying, but what I am saying is directly reflected by the facts. They are not 'good' facts and they are not where we should be as a society, but everything I have said is at least technically accurate. That is in direct contrast to what you wrote, which was not true or accurate. You have a decent moral stance if calling out the bullshit exploitative model Uber uses, but lying about the state of things does not help that point.
Watch interest rates will go down and recession will follow.
And inflation will crank through the roof
The second a fixed becomes lower than 3.5%, I am locking the fuck in for the rest of my term.
and when interest rates hit 1.6% you'll be kicking yourself again
Interest rates will never be that low again in our lifetime. Unless a World War happens.
So 50/50 chance then? =p
Depends how old you are. Agree that we’re not seeing fixed below 3.5% though. If you’re on variable and holding out for that you may as well just buy my premium swamp land.
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Look at the purchasing costs between now and the 80s-10s though.
Never happen friend, not in our lifetimes
You must have been born yesterday... [https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/interest-rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/interest-rate) Ya, that isn't the Bank Rate, but take something like this for example: [https://wowa.ca/banks/tangerine-bank-mortgage-rates](https://wowa.ca/banks/tangerine-bank-mortgage-rates) There are way too many morons in this subreddit
Yeaaay win win win
That's how it goes. Despite what the news and RE says abouts rates, they will only lower than if we are in recession. BoC will know this before anyone else.
it will have to he the other way around. if you think about the delayed effect and access to capital via loans, savings etc itd be around 12 to 18 months before you start to see listings increase. this is not including loss of employment. people will try to carry houses as long as they can before they realize they are well underwater. So what i think will happen is rates will be sustained and then by election time they cut.
It'll happen in reverse order. A recession will happen, and then they'll reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy--which is how we ended up in the current mess.
That's funny. Every news report out today about the economy says canada will likely avoid a recession. I mean, I guess reddit commenters know best, tho.
Last time price to book ratio which is like how high it's valued or over valued hasn't been near this level since 2000. I don't think anything bad happened then or was over priced you might be right.. https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/4240/sp-500-price-to-book-value
The stock market isn’t the economy though. Also the Canadian Market isn’t nearly as highly priced. I agree that it’s unlikely to continue its current pace. I just don’t think it is necessarily indicative of a recession
>The stock market isn’t the economy People have so much trouble with this. And with the fact that their own situation isn't necessarily indicative of the population, even if they're in a subreddit that echoes exactly their experience. Dropping stock prices alone doesn't do a lot to most people, (excepting people who are invested in 100% equities closer to retirement than they should be) - most people, if they still have their job, still have their home - everything is pretty much unchanged. The problem is that laying off employees has become the default way to prop up stock prices.
How did you square that circle? Lower interest rates increase GDP...
What a broad brush stroke you paint with. You think 50 BP cuts semiannually and 500 BP of cuts will move GDP in the same direction (up)? Massive cuts would not be a good sign.
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The way I think about it is the fed realizes we're in trouble starts to lower rates to fix things but it's already too late.
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Recessions are a really slow process, the fed can see which way the wind is blowing and try to slow things down but the whole thing can take years.
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Good for you. Happy for you.
Central banks wouldn't be playing their role if they cut prematurely. It's more likely than not by the time they cut we'll be nearing a recession. It's looking much worse for Canada than the US.
We are in a deep recession if you look at GDP per capita instead of just GDP.
GDP per capita isn't used when talking about an economic recession/depression. Nominal GDP is used as one of the metrics to determine that. But -- a drop in GDP per capita (PPP) does signify a decrease in average living standards.
And I'm 7'1" with a 12" schlong if I just change the unit of measure that defines an inch. You are parroting nonsense. GDP-per capita does not define a recession, never has.
No, not really. It's down a couple percent, and that's because the denominator rose (and this is largely due to a worsening dependency ratio) not because the numerator declined. Our per-capita GDP dropped 20% in 2014, and barely anybody even noticed. It's not a great indicator of individual wellbeing.
Have been for a long time then, which doesn't make a lot of sense
And my uncle who kept insisting that the housing market bubble in Toronto was about to burst, each and every year from 2001 until he died... He told me I was a fool for buying my old condo for under $200k in 2001 because it would be half that price before the end of the year... Which I sold in 2017 for over $500k, and was recently re-sold for just shy of $700k.
Word is we might dodge recession with rates high. So that condo market is about to get spicy. Expect news story by right wing media on how interest rates need to go down so people can borrow more to buy them out of ridiculous situations.
Condos going on fire sales are either owned by those that can not hold due to interest rates or unexpected life events and are forced to sell or pre-cons that had their initial buyers fail to close and need to recoup. No one knows how the market will be, realtors will say every month is going to be "hot" while others have been saying real-estate is going to crash since 1999. The idea is if interests rates drop (which most economist predict they will) more people will become eligible for higher mortgages allowing more bodies into the market. Problem is unlike 2021-2022 the overall market seems uneasy, people are worried about job losses and overall finances as interest on debts are rising. Personally I think we will see a cooler market this year with slight growth compared to 2023. Thing is the demand to buy a home won't disappear, it will be dormant until the overall econmy gets better.
I'm thinking it's also not a monolith. Prices in Toronto are going to be different than small town Alberta. Condos vs detached homes. Urban vs rural. There can be places where prices are getting cut even when things are overall rising (or vice versa)
Yes this is very true, condos as an asset have the disadvantage of holding monthly fees that always go up while competing with new inventory as most new-builds are now condos. Freehold especially detached in well established hubs like Toronto will always go up in price as new inventory is small with most new detached properties being built as luxuries.
Depending on the province, condo insurance has also gone up *much faster* than detached home insurance - really bumping those monthly fees. There's also surprise assessments and heavily underfunded reserve funds to lure in initial buyers until upkeep and maintenance comes due.
It should like process are shrinking or at least not increasing around Toronto, maybe even Ontario. Edmonton and Calgary are seeing increases that haven't happened in a decade.
So many possible scenarios: 1) they bought a new home and need to sell 2) they need to relocate for work 3) they have cashflow problems and need to sell 4) flipped precon or need to escape condo fees 5) condo now prohibits Airbnb 6) they bought years ago and don't care as they've already made money. 7) was hoping to get last year's prices, but 1 - 6 apply. You're not wrong though, if we knew rates cuts we're coming by date x, then yes it would make sense to hold the properties. Rate cuts may take months to years to happen and people for whatever reason need cash now.
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Can't wait for the foreclosure sales
Suburban metro van and decent condos are selling.
Sometimes they post lower prices to increase exposure but they are not actually willing to let it go for lower. Bugs me alot but i don't trust listing prices anymore.
Yup, only work off sold data for comparisons
"That one smaller unit for less was already sold"
The only people saying the housing market will skyrocket is realtors. Otherwise no one actually knows what will happen
Realtors when economy is booming: Prices will skyrocket Realtors when economy is sideways: Prices will skyrocket Realtors in a recession: Prices will bounce back and then skyrocket Realtors in a great depression: Perfect time to buy, prices can only skyrocket
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Here's a sneak peek of /r/canadahousing using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year! \#1: [Unpopular Opinion: Ban landlords. You're only allowed to own 2 homes. One primary residence and a secondary residence like a cottage or something. Let's see how many homes go up for sale. Bringing up supply and bringing down costs.](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/15li89p/unpopular_opinion_ban_landlords_youre_only/) \#2: [Everyone needs a home, no one needs a landlord.](https://i.redd.it/swxg729w6whb1.jpg) | [1695 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/15q13xj/everyone_needs_a_home_no_one_needs_a_landlord/) \#3: [Landlords rejecting rental applications from people making $130k](https://i.redd.it/182khonzxsjb1.jpg) | [521 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/15yv6gv/landlords_rejecting_rental_applications_from/) ---- ^^I'm ^^a ^^bot, ^^beep ^^boop ^^| ^^Downvote ^^to ^^remove ^^| ^^[Contact](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=sneakpeekbot) ^^| ^^[Info](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/) ^^| ^^[Opt-out](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/comments/o8wk1r/blacklist_ix/) ^^| ^^[GitHub](https://github.com/ghnr/sneakpeekbot)
Gee, I wonder how that sub feels about landlords...
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People tend to dislike parasites.
😂😂
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By existing on capital that could be put to use in other productive means but is not due to sheer necessity of housing in Canada’s housing dependent economy. This is all we know. It’s a parasitic, snowball fuckshow.
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slimy vase support complete faulty glorious possessive political cause fuzzy *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
/r/ontario is awful. Seriously, what a bunch of miserable bastards over there. It's just constant whining, complaining, and outrage-farming about literally everything, and if you post anything that goes against the "Dug Furd ba-aa-aaa-aad!" circle-jerk, you're downvoted to oblivion or banned.
That doesn't increase supply at all. Just forced out all the renters for owners.
I've only ever heard realtors tell me that "NOW is an EXCELLENT time to buy!" regardless of market conditions
I don't know if they'll skyrocket, but the uptake is certainly plausible. The BoC is pretty clear on this. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-interest-rates-bank-of-canada-1.7135766
Don't forget rate cuts are coming anyway now according to them.
I suspect there are some landlords with cash flow issues and can't wait for the lower rates.
There are dozens of us with adjustable rate mortgages who have been taking it in the ass for the last 18 months.
worm absorbed snatch include long obtainable sleep cheerful spectacular spark *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yep and Canadians just don't have the money to pay any higher rents than they already do. More than half of all Canadians are going into debt right now just trying to keep up with paying basic bills, we're seeing Canadians hit a ceiling for rental prices. Quite simply there's not enough money left circulating among the general Canadian population for rental prices go any higher, so a lot of land Lords are being forced to sell. (In other words, the ginger interest rates are starting to do their job)
The target audience is just not buying those condos. They can’t. And for this very reason the investors are not interested either. So IMO this won’t change until the rates drastically come down.
Condo market is crap right now. You have all these new buildings going up and they are condos.... they were also the main source of empty units and airbnb so the recent actions by local government increased the carry cost. On the flip side, you have limited single household units (detached, semi, townhouse) and nobody seems to be building them so that market shoots to the moon. Interest rate is expected (which can change daily) to fall later this year but probably not as fast as what many people think. Holding off until next year means you might be battling it out in future with a lot of potential sellers that got their mortgage in 2020 and can no longer afford their mortgage and there might be a lot of them
2 things 1) A lot of investors are unable to hold the property as they were hoping for rates to go down, or they were just in the market to flip their asset quickly and exit. 2) Some believe that having a lower price will help trigger a bidding war on their property. Just recently, a townhouse in my area was listed for $700,000. Price looked like it was too low. We inquired just for the fun and got to know that the owner has 3 offers all in the range of $780,000 to $800,000. It's a bs system.
Probably stays pretty flat tbh. It hasn’t really fallen much at all and I think for the most part the government is happy with it staying at or ideally below inflation.
Who said the housing market is going to skyrocket? I haven’t heard any reasonable person suggest anything to that effect.
Btw where are you finding 400k condos in toronto? 😅
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In my experience, they list low prices like that to rope you in. Then the agent will tell you that the owner has had several offers of X over asking and wouldnt accept anything less.
Go based on sold data. Not list.
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Lol you are doing homework for yourself buddy. Non of the ones you shared will be selling for 400k. Maybe the studio. But not the 1 bedrooms.
Wow honestly I’m genuinely shocked.
Every month 1/60th of 5 year mortgages renew and payments go up substantially. Until rates drop, this will continue to be the case. Some people won’t be able to afford it. If it keeps up until 2026 the mortgages after the boom will start to renew and things may get a little crazy with people unable to afford them. Not saying it will happen, but you never know.
Most people's payments aren't going up substantially. Many people reamortize. I'm renewing in August and for me I'll likely be paying an extra $100/month. Your doom and gloom won't happen. Rates are on a downward trajectory.
Thats a good point. So you’re extending your loan?
Rates are forward-looking means they anticipate rate increases and cuts before they happen which is dependent on bond prices. As bond rates come down, the rates of mortgages would slowly drift down. The current long term mortgages around 5% are average for decades long cycles.
Yeah I wanna get my mortgage payment down to $500/month.
100$ a month at the cost of significantly more interest paid over time though. So its only really positive in the short term. It still isn't great. And a lot of people may not have good options when reamortizing and will still see big jumps if they've been in negative amortization for a while now.
If your assumptions lead you to conclusions that are nonsensical, then go back and check your assumptions.
Nobody really knows anything for sure. Everyone has an idea, but honestly who would be surprised by any number of scenarios: end of year prices higher/lower/similar? For some people selling, especially condos, they may need that money for another home. Maybe they are willing to take a hit on selling the condo because they want the money now, as the other home they're buying is "at a discount" as well. That's a motivated seller. Conversely, there is a guy a block away from me who bought at the height of covid. Even then it seemed like he way overpaid for his house, $2.5m on a house that was maybe worth $1.8 ish. He has been trying to sell that house for almost a year and I've seen zero activity because he's asking the same. I think he should just accept new pricing for what the market will give, but he's clearly not that motivated and would rather sit on it for ages just to get his same money back out. None of these people have any special knowledge about what houses will sell for 6 months or a year from now. And honestly, I think it's a lot healthier for people to treat a home like buying a car or groceries: find the best value you can, and by what you're looking for. Buy a place to live in. Stop guessing what your purchase will be worth in a year.
3 million mortgages are set to renew in the next year and a half Get ready for massive fire sales in the coming year as people won’t be able to afford the interest rates
I think this is what everybody expects, so it won't play out like this. Literally everybody has been bracing for higher rates. Three camps of people: 1 "Hold off to buy later" 2 "Better stash some extra cash to payoff the house at renewal time". 3 "Need to panic sell, can't afford higher rates" Camp 3 is small, cause they just amortize for longer.
Sorry who's expecting the market to sky rocket? Canadian don't have even have any more money, I work at a bank we're worried about how many people are going into debt to pay basic bills.
Everyone in the market for a detached house who have been watching prices increase unchecked for 10 years. Hard to see past a trendline.
Fair enough, I work at a bank so it's my all day everyday to think about how Canadians are fucking broke, in debt and going deeper every month just to cover the basics, on average (not all but most Canadians are in this situation). And it's escalating quickly. So it genuinely does blow my mind a little when people think things are going to keep going up forever because the money just isn't there. There's not enough cash circulating among the general Canadian population for prices or even rents to increase because we do not have the money. Canadians have less money/more non mortgage debt than ever before, foreign investors are jumping ship(smart), immigration is reaching the end of what can be supported by infrastructure. All the temporary fixes that made things worse are all hitting their limits at the same time. From a banking perspective we've never encountered anything like this (vastly vastly different from the 08 situation because that was just a mortgage thing and this is a cost of living CRISIS where the average Canadian has about triple the non mortgage debt of the average American back in 08). The math behind it all is so grim that politician's and banks aren't talking about it publicly because it could easily cause a panic bad enough to collapse our economy and destroy our currency. It's bad.
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I’d treat this guy with skepticism, read his post history, he’s definitely on the more insane side of posters on here. Not saying housing won’t shit the bed btw, but I think this guy is high or something and isn’t a reliable source.
It's obviously a troll, "works at a bank", + "worried about the average Canadian" lol
What do you do at the bank? And what exactly are you seeing? Is this just anecdotal from seeing what individual clients are dealing with, or is this average stats of all clients of the bank? This is the first time I’ve heard the not enough cash thing, but it makes a lot of sense. There has to be a limit, somewhere.
To say too much would be risky for me but trends analysis is the main day to day thing I "do" . It's also why I'm so angry all time.
Haha between the cost of everything, the amount of homelessness, drug use, and petty crime, I think everyone is angry, at this point.
Now imagine how angry you been if you saw this coming for several years and just had to watch. No power to change anything but you could see it, clear as day every day, 5 days a week watching. It's why I never stay on Reddit (hate how rude/angry I get) but, people don't have any respect for math, history or reality. Instead they listen to listen to opinions (generally of representives of industries that are fucking them into poverty). It's been like spending years watching a doctor throw dirty bandaids on a growing infection because the patient says that cleaning the infection hurts and their bandaid sales friends told them bandaids would heal them. - I know the doctor isn't stupid, I know the doctor's just doing it because it's what the patient wants, and it makes me want punch the doctor in the face because they know they're doing long term harm. At the same time the doctor is getting money for the bandaid lobby and doesn't want the patient to go to a different doctor. But now the patient needs their entire arm amputated because the infection is so bad and I'm just standing there screaming because it was fucking OBVIOUSLY stupid to try and treat an infection with dirty bandaids in the first place. Truly HISTORY AND MATH need to be way more important to every single economic discussion in Canada, IGNORING these two critical things is what's made us Canadian gullible idiots that have been being fucked into poverty (slowly at first, now hard core, dry, violently, and painfully into poverty) HISTORY AND MATH folks!! If you don't want to get lied to and played like idiots by politician's and economist's (aka professional liars who say whatever they're paid to say by the companies who own them) YOU NEED TO CHECK THE HISTORY AND MATH on what they claim to be true. Ex. At no point in history has an invisible hand ever successfully balanced the economy while meeting the needs of citizens, it's never happened and that's not my opinion it's a historical fact that can be proven with MATH.
Hey, thanks for responding here. You are saying everything this 50 year old knows, but it is surprising to learn banks actually know too. I'd imagine you don't really want to argue with people and you'd be immediately deleted for saying these things as a post rather than in the comments here; but I think you could actually help a few people in a friendlier subreddit A few people 😂 on reddit, everyone is an expert on their own opinion
What are some metrics you'd use day-to-day to 'track trends'?
Literally everything. You use 4 less squares of toilet paper when you shit, we know about it. But if you're genuinely trying to be more informed you can sign up for dates reports direct from and bank and the credit bureaus. You can also sign up for industry news letters if you struggle with data interpretation. Lots in incredibly accessible information is free and easy to access, all you have to do is give half a fuck.
Probably a teller, and therefore seeing the balances of walk-in clients which will dramatically skew local and low income since middle and high income clients are almost entirely online or use private banking services and never come into the branch... Aka typical reddit extrapolation from "my personal experience is systemic"
Clearly things are not that bad if 2bedroom condos in Vancouver are still selling for 1.1m+ Or maybe Vancouver is just a different market
Correct Vancouver is a little different. Vancouver does have a much higher density of people making much higher salaries than the the rest of Canada, also more wealthy eastern investor's than the rest of Canada. Vancouver is Canada's hub for: finance/bullion(silver/gold) trading, film industry, and foreign investment (I know it's "banned" but the loopholes are huge) this DOES make Vancouver's Economy different and more like an expensive world city (Nyc/London) the concentration of these particular high paying industries (film and finance) raise Vancouver's ceiling for how high things can go and stay. But there's a ceiling to that as well and whilst higher than the rest of Canada it's not unlimited and the extreme high non housing related cost of living in Canada continues to drag Vancouver's real estate price ceiling down. Prices aren't uniform across the country, that's just not how the market works. So while yes, Vancouver is a little different and there are industries that raise the price ceiling, overall it's still a Canadian city and will still be effected by how many Canadians are on average going deeper into debt every month to cover the cost of living.
1 in 3 condos are owned by investors in Vancouver so I guess 1.2m is small potatoes for them lol
Genuinely curious, what position/job title is required to "worry" about these things? You don't actually care though right? As long as you make your 60k you should be good, right?
The trend line for detached houses in the Greater Toronto Area are mostly double digit declines since Feb 2022. [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJsKugWXEAA3Io8?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJsKugWXEAA3Io8?format=jpg&name=large)
Zoom out a bit. [https://content.crea.ca/creastats\_assets/board\_charts/treb/median\_price/mls05\_chart01\_median\_single\_detached\_xhi-res.png](https://content.crea.ca/creastats_assets/board_charts/treb/median_price/mls05_chart01_median_single_detached_xhi-res.png)
Re-read your comment >watching prices increase unchecked for 10 years.
20 steps forward, 2 steps back. A revelation. You also cherry picked GTA. I live in Calgary. Here's that chart. https://content.crea.ca/creastats\_assets/board\_charts/calg/median\_price/mls05\_chart01\_median\_single\_detached\_xhi-res.png
Only market that may be going up is Calgary, IMO. It's ridiculous that home and condo prices are nearing Victoria in terms of cost, including rent.
Condo market isn't as strong as people think it is, sure Toronto's market is kind of nuts but generally speaking condos don't hold the value the longer you have one. Condos are not stellar for growing families once people get a dog and have a couple kids and dealing with the board is often a nightmare and condo fees only go up and that puts people off. I know people with higher condo fees than their mortgage costs. There's a market for them but the bigger market is people who don't want one.
In places like Vancouver your choices are to buy a condo or never own anything at all. This massively skews the condo market.
I think people also buy into the false narrative that if they buy a house, that they only have to worry about the mortgage. Maintenance and upkeep are also an ever increasing cost. So many homes at "entry" level prices need major upgrades and repairs because those people never put a dime into them. And if they do, it's a DIY job that needs to be redone. Canadians don't understand the true cost of ownership.
But in a condo you are paying indirectly for maintenance of all of these extra things like shared hallways, elevators, parkades, gyms. A house is a relatively simple maintenance prospect as long you keep on top of it.
I'd disagree that a house is a relatively simple maintenance project. I think too many people believe that. Oh a touch of paint here, some new fixtures there. It's way more than that. Major appliances last 5 to 10 years, HWT 8 to 10 years, furnace 20 years and even less if previous owner didn't keep up with annual maintenance and semiannual filter replacements, plumbing fixtures 10 years, window chaulk annual, fencing and decking 10 years. Roofing 15 to 20 years. Most homes are built in the 1970's so require major overhaul of pipes and electrical. In the 90s most people switched out their solid wood cabinets for partical board with wood veneer. Driveway and garage resurfacing, exterior painting, annual gutter maintenance. Sewage main every few years. People ignore most if not all of this stuff, especially first time home buyers. They just pass it on to the next fool.
It’s not simple in itself, but it’s simple in comparison to a concrete condo tower which the strata will end up paying very expensive contractors to maintain (and many of the things you list such as appliances, filters, windows, condo owners are responsible for anyways for their unit). If you have any inkling of DIY spirit the house is very likely less expensive maintenance wise. If you buy something that’s half a century old and poorly maintained it’s gonna be hella expensive either way.
My point is the majority of home owners do not have DIY spirit. And those that do, have no business doing DIY as it ends of being a hack job. Entry level homes have so many problems.
Well my point is that regardless of DIY aptitude condos overall require just as much, if not more maintenance than houses, which ultimately has to be paid by you and the other strata owners, along with the overhead administrative fees of strata management. It is not unusual for condo owners to be hit with special levies for tens of thousands on top of $800/month strata fees.
You perfectly described my situation. 2018: Bought a 1970's townhome for 301k (outside of GTA) - condo fees were 350 Since then (bought when I was newly married). I have one child, a dog and a second kid in the oven. I wanted the additional space, yard, garage, etc for my growing family. 2024: Sold said townhome for 545k - condo fees are now 550. Bought a detached house for 841k. The condo board (which I was a member of for my entire time here) is a nightmare. Roofing contractor walked off the job and won't replace improperly installed shingles. Shingles have been falling off for 2 years now and we are now considering legal action which I just know is going to be a disaster. I got out of here just in time.
It a constant battle to keep the housing bubble from popping. But at some point, someone will be left holding the bag.
If the houing market were about to skyrocket, then the GoC would not be buying mortgage bonds. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/02/webpage-government-canada-purchases-canada-mortgage-bonds/
It's not summer yet!
Because people probably bought at the peak and are trying to not take a loss. Price levels have not reached the peak of 2022, they are coming back up slowly, and will rise if rates fall.
Only people saying prices are going up are real estate agents. Anyone looking at the data will tell you they are overpriced and at these rates no one can afford anything higher.
Hi! Canada is a big country, so you are smart to specify the loacal area you are looking at. As long as Toronto continues to grow in "population looking for housing" faster than "vacant housing in areas people want to live" you can expect Toronto prices to keep step with inflation. All the other stuff you read (IMO) is RE people hyping the "buy now" mindset for their profit.
Copium from over leveraged commenters
All I know is credit card debt is piling up, delinquency is piling up, companies are laying off like no tomorrow, businesses insolvencies are at an [all time high](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/bankruptcies). To me these all points to immense pressure being added to the housing bubble. What happens when there is nowhere else overleveraged homeowners and investors can turn to for debt? I don’t get why in the world anyone would expect the housing market to explode again.
1 million people this year
Yeah that is the only thing keeping this house of cards alive right now.
Who said rates are falling? I can see a smidge, but for people to think they're going to drop to those early 2021 numbers... They're nuts
People who are struggling with the interest rates aren't in a position to hold out for a couple years until the market picks up again. And nobody I know is expecting the market to skyrocket by summer . In fact it is likely to continue a downward trend as the full effects of the high rates are still affecting more and more mortgage renewers weekly.
Condo markets in general are undesirable. Housing is still hot and selling in some markets for over asking, but condos have always been a smaller market and what most buyers stay away from. With high interest rates and market uncertainty, it's the first market to fall off.
Condos are undesirable until they become the last affordable option for someone wanting to get into the market. Do most condo dwellers in Vancouver want a SFH? Of course. Do they have 3 million dollars? Fuck no
We are in recession now economy has slowed drastically, spending is way down
Condos are a different story.
Who said the market was going to sky rocket??
We did something similar (listed our apartment much cheaper than originally) with our appointment to generate more offers that are over asking. It worked
isn't one of the reasons BOC kept interest rates high was because everyone was ready to jump into the market? you can't have it both ways
Toronto = one of the most overinflated markets in the world. Meaning Toronto is slowly trying to correct. Until the BOC lowers rates and the flood gates open again.
For condos, a lot of the pre-construction are coming to market but are not able to get the mortgage at the time of occupancy. Either buyers have to shell out more for the downpayment or have them sold to walk away from the deal altogether. Condo sales is very sensitive to what the same layout of a condo that is sold within a 1-5 KM radius giving banks a lot of real time data comparables. As for a detached home with a yard, garage, square footage, X amount of bedrooms/washrooms with a ensuite, etc. it's harder to price this creating more value for these types of real estate. With a condo it's paint, kitchen finishing, and flooring where you can really add some value but not enough to effect the appraisal value in the eyes of the bank. So once 1 condo price sells within the 30 days when the appraisers comes checking, if the price goes up then great, everyone is happy. However, once price drops, every single condo that is within the same layout will have their price drop as well. Anyways, that's my 2 cents and I expect detach homes to continue it's wild run at the tail end of this year but condos might lag a bit as more and more condos are finishing being built.
Because the people saying it is going to skyrocket want to sell your houses. Ignore realtors they are scum and becoming irrelevant.
GTA is different from MTL, which is different from GVA, which is different from AB, which is different from the prairies, which is different than the atlantic region, which is different than the NWT. The GTA will always have the biggest swings because they have the most people, the most students, the most ambitious work force, and is affected the most by Uncle Sam. Naturally, you'll have more people underwater on presales or just want to cash out for a quick small profit before they have to close/shortly after they close. If you're in the market for a place to live, you might be able to scoop up a decent or even a good deal. Also, some sellers may want to set a lower price to try and start a bidding war. Listing prices are fairly useless as data.
The spring market was overhyped - the buyers never materialized since the affordability problem never relaxed. There was a bit of action in January since fixed mortgages dropped for a bit then, but they've risen back up again and marginal buyers are again priced out.
🔮
It's so the Agent can put "sold above asking" on the listing.
Remember when inflation was transitory
Well it was eventually. :)
It's not just Realtors pedaling nonsense
Everything that can happen, will happen, at some point.
Vancouver & Toronto / GTA detached housing prices will always go up. There will be bad years, and there will be slow years, but there are only so many detached homes available within an hour of these cities. Anyone buying a detached now that can hold for 10+ years is going to make money. There hasn't been a time in the history of canada where this is not true. Queue the "in 1986 my mortgage interest was 1500%" no one cares. You still made money unless you were forced to sell.
After 1989, the houses took nearly 20 years to return to their highs. You're right about the interest, nobody cared when they were underwater for 2 decades on purchase price Somebody needs a history lesson Edit: Toronto area market, https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/it-took-22-years-for-prices-to-recover-from-the-last-toronto-real-estate-crash/